Combine Value and Forex Shifts

Here’s why I sometimes break several of my investing rules.

One rule is to invest only in good value markets.

I invest instead in country ETFs that invest in the Good Value Markets outlined in the Keppler Asset Mangement analysis of 46 stock markets around the world.

Yet I hold asset in this market, the iShares MSCI Canada (EWC) ETF.  The Canadian stock market is  a neutral , not good, value market.  I’ll explain why in a moment.

Another rule is… don’t hold individual shares. 

Yet I hold shares in the Canadian Brookfield Renewable Energy.


There are two reason why I have broken from my discipline.

The first reason I depart from this routine has to do with distortions in currency.  

One way to determine the future parity of one currency versus another is to compare the nation’s federal debt.

According to (1) the United State’s Government debt accounted for 125.5% of the country’s Nominal GDP in June 2020, compared with the ratio of 107.8 % in the previous quarter.

To make matters worse, as the graph bellow from (2) shows,  that this debt grew by over a trillion dollars in the next months, so the percentage of debt to GDP.


Canada’s pubic debt is 53.3% of its GDP compared to the US debt of over 125.5%

50 years of tracking and investing in  currency distortions has been very profitable for me and one measure of a currencies potential strength (versus another) is the difference in debt per gdp.  In this case the US debt  is 135% higher than Canada’s.

This difference suggests a huge potential surge in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar.

The chart below of the Canadian dollar versus the green back shows a history of dramatic swings in parity.  The chart also shows that this is a likely time for the loonie to rise versus the buck.


In the past decade the Canadian dollar has been at a high strength, worth as much as high as US$1.07 and as week as US$.71 cents.  That’s a 50% difference and the Canadian dollar was at the all time low just over a year ago.

Since then the Canadian dollar has climbed back to US$.76 but I believe has a long way it can still rise.  To my way of thinking this adds extra value to Canadian shares.

The second reason I invest beyond country ETFs is top suport (and profit from) something I believe in.

Here’s an example of how investing in value combined with a currency distortion, into something I feel is doing good in the world, can pay off.

I have believed in green investing for many years.  In January 2009 I invested in Brookfield Renewable Power Units at C$19.75 (at that time about US$15), because this company is all about renewable energy.

Since then, the shares have paid dividends each year of about 6% as the price has risen.

The Brookfield Renewable Power Fund was later merged into a much larger Brookfield Renewable Partnership and then partnership shares were given shares in Brookfield Renewable Corp.

I made this investment because I like renewable power and thought the Brookfield shares were good value at that time, plus because I felt that there was a distortion in the US/Canadian dollar parity.

My decision to invest in Brookfield Renewable Power Fund was based on multi currency reasoning as well as my quest for good value and income producing equities.

I keep about 5% of my portfolio in Canadian dollars and in January 2009 was looking for a good Canadian equity to add to the portfolio.

I looked first for value… second a good yield… third… growth potential… fourth… safety commiserate with risk premium (or discount)… and finally for an investment in the Canadian dollar.

When I reviewed the Brookfield Renewable Power Fund, I looked at earnings and took into account the demographics and potential for electricity prices to rise.

Then I asked, “Is this an investment suited to the longer view?” Electricity created by liquid (hydro power) and gas (wind power) seemed a good environmental option.

I invested US$30,000.

This has been a good investment as all the positive forces have pushed together.

Dividends have grown dramatically.  Already this year (2020) the shares have paid US$8,848 dividend and my original US$30,000 is now worth US$350,719.75.

Always keep value in mind and stick mostly to country ETFs that represent good value markets.  But if I believe that an investment in a neutral value market can enforce a social value, I am not afraid to invest in it.

The profit does not always materialize.  That’s why it’s important to factor in value and to diversify.

Some years back I invested in an Australian company growing sandalwood plantations.  I believe in the healing nature of essential oils and this project helped make sandalwood sustainable.  I did not properly assess the company’s debt load, (nor the integrity of the management) which impacted the share’s value.  The shares more than doubled in a year before going bankrupt, so I lost the entire $50,000 invested there.

Stop loss management (shame on me for not having it) might have also helped.

This is the nature of stock markets.  They rise and fall.  Some share prices skyrocket.  Other explode.  We can gain safety from the explosions by diversifying in good value ETFs.  Yet when we see a share that represents a value we believe in, it can make sense to invest, if we are careful in assessing the mathematics of the share’s value as well as the social value.


Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.



So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.


The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.


This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.


Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.


Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.


(1) corporate bond yields



(3) dollar