The Fiction Behind This Recession


Will we have a quick rebound from the economic shutdown created by the pandemic?   Or will we see a recession… even a depression?

Know one knows, so we have to be ready to adapt.

To gain a better grasp on what could happen, let’s first remember that all booms and busts are just figments of our our collective imagination.   We as a society or economy buy into a fiction that impacts our trust.

Recessions and depressions are about certainty and trust.

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Money is the ultimate universal fiction.

A quote from history professor Yuval Harari, author of “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind” and “Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow” says: The truly unique trait of ‘Sapiens’ is our ability to create and believe fiction. All other animals use their communication system to describe reality. We use our communication system to create new realities. Of course, not all fictions are shared by all humans, but at least one has become universal in our world, and this is money.

Dollar bills have absolutely no value except in our collective imagination, but everybody believes in the dollar bill.

When we see the economy slide into a recession or depression, what’s missing?  The truth is what’s gone is something that was really never there.

An economic collapse is caused by the reorganization of our beliefs… when something we thought existed is proven to not be there.

Take for example, the Tulip Mania of the 1600s.  This was the Dutch Golden Age and during this time contract prices for some fashionable tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels.

At the peak of tulip mania, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsworker.  Then prices dramatically crashed.  Some believe that the tulip price collapse led to a widespread recession in the Netherlands for many years afterwards.

The high price on tulip bulbs caused a belief about how much wealth the holders of tulip bulbs possessed.  That myth included the thought that the wealth would be spent or invested.  That expectation was that money would flow, creating jobs, bringing wealth and prosperity.

Yet the wealth was never really there.  The high prices were just figments of imagination.  However when the bubble burst, the public suddenly felt poor.

All that wealth (that never really existed) was gone.

The boom was caused by a  belief that there was an abundance of wealth.  The bust came from the opposite belief.

The reality?  The same people, the same resources and the same productivity existed right through the boom and bust.

The only difference was a group perception.

The key to adjusting successfully is to see the reality while the herd is caught in the myth,

Let’s look at some of the main forces behind the 1930s depression.

depression

One could say the depression began with “Black Tuesday,” US stock market crash of October 29, 1929.  The market, which had reached record highs that very summer, had begun to decline in September.

When the market reached an all time high, the perception was that there existed a great deal of wealth.  This was a time of optimism, “The Roaring Twenties”.

Then Thursday, October 24, the market plunged at the opening bell, causing a panic. Even though the stock market regained some of its losses by the end of 1930, the belief in the economy was devastated.

The plunge in trust caused the public to stampede in the belief that a huge amount of wealth (which only existed in speculator’s imagination) was gone.

The belief caused bank failures. The stock market crash led to the failure of nearly 700 banks because banks had bought into the myth that those numbers assigned to the price of equities were a real representation of wealth.

When the numbers changed, the collateral that banks had, or the price of the shares in the bank’s portfolio was diminished or gone.  There was no federal deposit insurance at that time so people lost all their money that had been in the banks. These failures caused depositors to believe that more banks might go bust.  This created bank runs that even healthy banks could not handle. This forced more banks to close.  The fear reinforced itself and more than 9,000 banks shut down.

Losses in the market and from failed banks reduced spending by consumers and companies.  Commerce collapsed because too many people believed that too much wealth was gone.

The reality was that the same resources, the same people and the same productivity were there, but they were no longer bound by trust.  Trust to invest. Trust to produce. Trust to buy.

depression

These problems led to high unemployment.   Now the myth was really taking hold.  As a result, huge numbers of workers were laid off.  As people lost their jobs, repossessions and evictions rose. Unsold inventory grew. The unemployment rate rose above 25%, which meant that there was even less spending to help the recovery process begin.

The fiction of poverty rose.

The belief in poverty provoked nationalism. The depression forced the government to do something to show it was solving the problem. Vowing to protect U.S. industry from overseas competitors, tariffs were added by Congress in the Act of 1930, better known as the Smoot-Hawley Act.

Near-record tariffs were placed on a wide range of imported goods. Countries retaliated by imposing tariffs on U.S. made goods. World trade collapsed by two-thirds between 1929 and 1934.

depression

Environmental problems were also a cause for readjustment of thought.  A sustained drought exacerbated by poor farming practices that ignored soil-preservation, created the Dust Bowl.  Massive dust storms choked towns, killing crops and livestock, sickening people and causing untold millions in damage. Thousands fled the region as the midwest’s agricultural economy collapsed.  This fortified the story of loss.

Where do we stand now.

There is a reason for a loss of trust in the economy as it has been.

The COVID-19 pandemic has hurt productivity.  This was enough to start a poverty story.  We have seen a stock market collapse from an all time high just as we did in 1929.

Unemployment is has arrived and is predicted to reach or pass levels during the 1930s depression.  This could lead to mortgage defaults.

Bank failures have not come yet, but there is concern about the ability of mortgage companies to withstand a wave of defaults.

A report this week from Oxford Economics estimates that 15% of homeowners will fall behind on their monthly mortgage payments.   This would exceed by 50% the number seen during the 2009 recession.

Finally keep an eye on natural disasters beyond the pandemic.  A second wave of COVID-19 will create problems enough, but if accompanied by super storms in the East, fires in the West, maybe a massive earthquake from the Cascadia fault or flooding and tornadoes in the Midwest and we might have just enough reality to expand our imaginings of fear.

A belief in the end of COVID-19 and a recovery in the economy must supercede the current doubt.

A vaccine for COVID-19 would help, if its distribution was fairly handled to help regain our trust in government.

One factor that helped end the myth of the depression was a new leader who grabbed the bull by the horns.  “The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself”.  That was FDR’s first inaugural address.

So let’s hope we get some good news and better leaders in November that can rebuild the public’s trust.

Until then we cannot dismiss entirely a story the pubic accepts that includes a depression or a decade long sideways inflation (as we saw in Japan in the 1990s).

But you and I can know that this trough, or the recovery is a myth.  We can keep our heads about them and adapt to reality, where there is always peace, prosperity, happiness and fulfillment enough.

Gary

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere

How to Gain Extra Freedom – While Almost Everyone Loses Theirs.  Profit from post COVID-19 trends.

I invite you to join Merri and me in expecting the world to get better… to live and earn based on that expectation but…  to also prepare for bad times as well as good.

Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper.

We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

For example in my report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere”,  you’ll see how to make your dining room table bring you more control, more time, more income and more freedom.  After all, what can be more accessible than a dining room table?

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Dining room tables we worked from (and we also sold the tables for a profit).

You’ll even learn how to turn dining room tables into income and tax deductions as we have with these dining room tables we build out of local wood.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers that the changes from the COVID pandemic will bring. 

The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, will continue to grow.  This collapse of the global economy will bring an incredible new opportunity for those who know what to do.  Thes profit making avenues offer enormous income potential and even work well in disaster scenarios.

Let me provide one simple, concrete example.  Ginseng.

This is a great health root.  The demand is growing especially in China.  At times good dried Ginseng sells for $1,000 a pound!  This is an incredible and easy crop to grow.   The less care you give it, the more valuable it can become.  Yet if everything goes south, the health qualities will be good to have and make it an excellent barter item.  Once you know what to do with ginseng, it’s easy to grow in your back yard.

Even better one of the best kept secrets is that ginseng and 125 other medicinal crops that are currently unsustainable but can be grown on land  that is extraordinarily cheap.

goldenseal ginseng

Ginseng we grew in our back yard.  I know about growing ginseng through experience and explain why and how in the report “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere”.

Loquats are another example of an easy to grow crop that help promote natural health.

loquats

Here I am by one of the many loquat trees at our Florida farm.

Loquats are a great fruit for making jam and such, but the loquat leaf has amazing medicinal qualities.  Its is a registered medicine in China and due to its anti viral and respiratory system enhancing qualities has an especially  growing demand right now.   The images below from Amazon.com show that the leaves sell for about a dollar per leaf!

I have many trees on the farm but started growing loquat seedlings last year.

loquat

Loquat leaf tea has become really important during the pandemic due to its respiratory strengthening qualities.

I have been drinking a lot of home made loquat leaf tea during the pandemic.

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  • See ways that small businesses like Tipi rentals can be enhanced by the pandemic but also create BIG tax savings as well as extra income.  For more than 30 years Merri and I have enjoyed a strong six figure income, some years more, in the millions.  Yet there have been very few years when we had to pay federal income tax.  The report lays out a three structure program and how it is used when you are in school (up to age 30), then from 25 to 50, 50 to 70  and beyond 70.   Learn why Chapter C corporations and pensions can be better than the normally recommended Chapter S.  See how new mileage log rules gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions using IRS Form 4562.  Using a two-vehicle strategy you can gain $12,976 in new deductions even if you do not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny on your car.
  • See how a greenhouse can help you eat better and be healthier, plus provide income and a tax deduction and be funded by a government grant.

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Our North Carolina greenhouse.

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Our Florida greenhouse.

  • There are similar benefits from having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587, even if your desk is a dining room table.  The report also shows how your dining room table can become an actual income producer as its creates a huge tax deduction at the same time, not to mention a great place to eat, work and lay out plans for a brighter, safer more lucrative and enjoyable future.
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merrily farms

This pond we created at our farm brought us pleasure but also helped create a safe, healthy food supply, extra income and a tax deduction as well.

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This may be the most important report I have written in 50 years.  The information is certainly the most urgent.  Do not delay.  The risks are upon us right now and you’ll understand how the final steps of the alliance are taking place as you read the current news.

To take any risk out of gaining this urgent information with my full satisfaction or money back guarantee.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.  I guarantee you can ask for a full refund any time within 60 days and I’ll refund your payment in full, no questions asked.

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