New Way to Invest in 2020


After this message about investing value in 2020, see a special 50% discount offer on our Purposeful Investing Course, good until January 6, 2020.

Last week I sent Purposeful Investing Course (PI) subscribers the January 2020 ENR Advisory Extra bulletin.

The entire bulletin is only available to large ENR clients and PI subscribers.

ENR is a special advisor I have worked with for decades and one of the very few SEC registered investment advisors that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks (1).

This first 2020 ENR Advisory focuses on the potential for safety or danger in stock and bond markets in the year ahead.

ENR’s CEO Eric Roseman wrote: In 2019, more than forty central banks cut interest rates to thwart a global economic slowdown triggered by a combination of growing protectionism, tariffs, a strong U.S. dollar and an aging economic cycle. A concerted effort to cut rates fueled a big asset allocation shift from cash to stocks last year following a market meltdown in December 2018. The result was the best performing year for world stocks since 2014 with the MSCI World Index surging more than 24%, MSCI EAFE Index (non-U.S.) up 18% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 14.6%. The S&P 500 Index soared almost 30% in 2019. Bonds in all categories, except CCC-rated junk, posted their biggest gains since 2009.

This is great news about the past, but what about the future?

Eric went on to show suggestions of a bright, short term future.

Stan Druckenmiller on 2020

Eric wrote: Stanley Druckenmiller, one of Wall Street’s most successful investors, acknowledges that the markets are riding high and that investors may be able to finally breathe freely in the short term after a number of shocks, but says investors should be wary of three events that could knock assets into a bear market. “One of the reasons I’m pretty sanguine right now is I think we’re close enough to the election, at least we can breathe for a few months,” he
told Bloomberg Television during a recent interview.

But there are a trio of situations that could upend that optimism — and perhaps permanently.

“The other thing that would obviously trigger it is if by the end of this year we started to get
enough inflation that the Fed started tightening,” the hedge-fund luminary explained.

“And of course, the other thing is if we had a credit event. And if you look at the credit
markets, it is very obvious that you’ve got a really lot of bad apples out there that are not
being exposed because the interest costs are so low,” he said. “By the way, one of them being
the U.S. government. We’re running a trillion-dollar deficit. Why? Because we can.”

Druckenmiller has made a number of accurate bets since ending his 30-year tenure running
what the Wall Street Journal described back in 2010 as “one of the industry’s most successful”
hedge funds with Duquesne Capital Management.

That sounds good, but the potential for risk, after so much reward, leaves us asking, where should we invest to be sure are portfolios are safe?

Does 60/40 Portfolio still Make Sense?

Eric looked at this question when he wrote:

Investors have long been told that the ideal portfolio should carry 60% of its holdings in
equities and 40% in bonds, a mix that provides greater exposure to historically superior stock
returns, while also granting the diversification benefits and lower risk of fixed-income
investments. If we measure that allocation over the past 12 months, that equates to an 6.25%
total return investing 60% in the S&P 500 Index and 40% in ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds.

enr

But in a research note published by Bank of America Securities, titled “The End of 60/40,”
portfolio strategists Derek Harris and Jared Woodward argue that “there are good reasons to reconsider the role of bonds in your portfolio,” and to allocate a greater share toward equities.

Though I would agree that longer term, fixed-income securities are awaiting the Mother of all
Bear Markets because of severe overvaluation and lowly interest rates, there’s a case to be
made for high quality debt as we approach another economic recession. In that scenario,
stocks will tank.

“The relationship between asset classes has changed so much that many investors now buy
equities not for future growth but for current income, and buy bonds to participate in price
rallies,” Harris and Woodward wrote.

Another question senior investors should ask when thinking about the ratio between equities and bonds is a question of time “How long can I wait before I need liquidity”.

For example at age 73, I keep five years worth of my income needs in short term bonds to reduce the odds that due to liquidity needs I’ll be forced to sell equities during a bear market.  History suggests that severe draw backs do not last more than half a decade.

Gary

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

To easily spot good value and stick to it, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Keppler’s analysis begins with a continual researches of corporate information on thousands of shares in 46 major stock markets. Keppler compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler explains why a Top Value Country Selection Strategy for equities is important and says in his analysis: Among the generally accepted reasons for taking a global perspective in investments is the historical fact that no nation can maintain economic and political pre-eminence ad infinitum.

Studies have shown that, regardless of the investor’s national market and currency, diversified global equity portfolios, over longer periods, offer higher returns at lower risk than investments in national markets.

Keppler Asset Management Inc. (KAM) was  founded by Michael Keppler in 1992.  KAM is an SEC–registered investment advisory firm dedicated to finding and exploiting investment opportunities in the global equity markets. Based in New York, they advise institutional investors worldwide and help manage published mutual funds with total assets exceeding two billion US dollars. Plus they advise many private pension funds by specializing in active quantitative portfolio strategies that aim to deliver superior long-term performance and seek to limit risk through a firm commitment to value.

Starting in 2009, KAM was named Best Fund Company in the Fund category, five years in a row, by Capital, a leading German business magazine.

That’s my simplicity secret for keeping track of where to invest.  Using Keppler’s data has served me well for 25 years, allowing me time to get on with life rather than being drowned in a sea of conflicting opinions about what investment to make next.

More good news is that Keppler does not manage individual accounts and though SEC registered and headquartered in New York, does not mange funds for US customers.

That’s why I created our Purposeful Investing Course, one of the few, if not the only sources of Keppler analysis for individual investors.

Here is how to tap into this valuable information on a no risk basis right now.

The Purposeful Investing Course combines Keppler analysis with research on low cost, good value country ETFs.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs, along with precious metals.   This is also why this position has hardly changed in four years. During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of  Keppler Asset Management.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally hold now.

70% of the equities is diversified into iShares ETFs that represent Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the equities are invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The equity ETFs in my portfolio are balanced with investments in silver, platinum and gold.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing Course.

Enroll in the course.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

You also begin receiving regular emailed updates.  Each update examines the current activity in a value ETF, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to course.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on the upcoming market shifts.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

* Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

* Learn to never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

* The results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

For over three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple.  Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Purposeful Investing Course.  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription so you pay only $197.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar, a total $665.10 value for only $197. for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Gary Scott guarantees “a benefit or your money back”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in the Purposeful Investing Course.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right now before the crash. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the basic training, 46 market value report, two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear and risk.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular value updates throughout the year.

Our Guarantee

If you are not fully satisfied, you can cancel the course any time in the first 60 days for a full refund  and there will be no additional fee.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us any time during the first two months for a full refund.

Special half price offer January 1, 2020 to January 6, 2020.

To share the experiences we have gained in 51 years of global travel, business and investing here is a coupon code NY2020 from January 1 through January 6th to save an additional 50% of this initial course fee.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Many investors will be ruined when the bloated US stock market balloon bursts.  Panic is an investor’s worst enemy.  News is skewed to the bad and dramatic.  News is selected to sell, not inform.  Fake news exacerbates this reality.

This is why using financial information rather than economic news can save you from the upcoming “Fake News” disaster.

Gary

(1) http://www.enrassetmanagement.com/