AI and War


Here’s a thought on how advances in AI can lead to an economic crash.

See why AI can bring tragedy to our investments.

wsj.com

 Concerns about human rights abuse in parts of China, such as Hong Kong, may be used as an excuse to accelerate WWIV.

The recent Wall Street Journal article “Despite Trade Truce, U.S.-China Cold War Edges Closer” suggests that if we are not fighting China, we are getting closer to a full blown cold war.

The article says:  Mutual mistrust, U.S. concerns about national security, human rights widen split between two countries

When President Trump first hit China with tariffs more than a year ago, he was pursuing narrowly defined, transactional goals: a smaller bilateral trade deficit and better treatment of U.S. companies inside China.

But the trade war has since blossomed into a broader, deeper ideological conflict. Events in the last week show that the two economic superpowers, though reaching a truce in their trade war, are drifting closer to a new Cold War.

Events in the last year have changed that. Business disenchantment with the China market and Mr. Trump’s trade war empowered economic hawks. They joined forces with national-security hawks who see China’s economic and military rivalry as inseparable. Separately, China’s treatment of its Muslim minority in Xinjiang and wayward western businesses like the National Basketball Association, and the Hong Kong protests gave human-rights hawks a voice.

Events in the last week starkly illustrate how this broad opposition is widening the split between the two countries. The so-called trade mini-deal is most notable for what it didn’t do: roll back any tariffs. It simply delayed increases in tariffs announced only two months ago. China agreed to resume purchases of U.S. farm exports but has been vague on the scale and timing.

The stress in Hong Kong allowed the US to ramp up a battle in WWIV.

The article points out that last week the U.S. added 28 Chinese entities including eight artificial-intelligence companies to a blacklist that cuts off access to U.S. suppliers of crucial inputs.

The addition of these 28 companies is said to be due to human rights concerns and China’s repression of Muslim minorities.

Yet none of the companies on the entity list have been known to pursue a human-rights agenda.

According to the article this is seen as evidence of the increased sway of hawks in the professional national-security establishment who have long sought to lock in the stark sense of contrast between American and Chinese values.

An article at MIT Technology Review “How military artificial intelligence can be easily (and dangerously) fooled” (2) provides a clearer view of what the US might have used any reason to slow China’s AI progress.

The article says: “Last March, Chinese researchers announced an ingenious and potentially devastating attack against one of America’s most prized technological assets—a Tesla electric car,” writes Knight. The team had found several ways to fool the car’s AI algorithms. “By subtly altering the data fed to the car’s sensors, the researchers were able to bamboozle and bewilder the artificial intelligence that runs the vehicle.” In one example, “lane markings on the road were ever-so-slightly modified to confuse the autonomous driving system so that it drove over them and into the lane for oncoming traffic.”

The moral of the story? “Deep learning” algorithms are surprisingly easy to fool if you find their weak points. AI is seen as the next big military advantage around the world, powering such things as attack drones and systems for analyzing satellite imagery or intercepted communications. Yet as the Tesla hack shows, an enemy that knows how an AI algorithm works could render it useless or even turn it against its owners.

Every war is different and at the least, the US has already had WWIV skirmishes with China, as well as Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Several hundred years ago Europe was dominated by a feudal political system.  The economy was powered by agriculture based on manpower and domesticated livestock.  The limiting velocity of man, of his thoughts, ideas and commerce was the speed of a horse.  Fate, current and wind ruled marine travel.

Then in desperation over manpower shortages caused by a series of plagues, humanity took an economic evolutionary turn.  We made a giant step forward with new ideas about mechanical power.  These ideas gave rise to incredible inventions such as the steam engine and telegraph.

We have moved thru seven industrial eras.  The first era was feudal… dominated by the stirrup, which allowed the formation of the mounted calvery (soldiers with stirrups could strike opponents without falling off their horse).  This military advance allowed the creation of the Holy Roman Empire.

Then came five eras each led by innovation.

Era #1: 1785-1845-fueled by water power-60 years. Textiles and iron works were the backbone of growth industries.

Era #2: 1845-1900-fueled by steam-55 years. Railways and steel provided the main growth in this era.

Era #3: 1900-1950-fueled by the internal engine-50 years. Electricity and chemicals provided the major growth.

Era #4: 1950-1990-fueled by electronics-40 years. Petrochemicals and aviation were the innovations which became mainstream in this period.

Era #5: 1990-current-fueled by digital networks- 30 years+ ? Software and new media create the growth elements in this era.

Each era greatly empowered massive new numbers of individuals, an empowerment that led to entire new classes. The working middle-class was born.  This empowerment allowed the working class to rise from feudal subservient positions to positions of economic and hence political influence.

Much of the world’s population became richer, but these changes were accompanied by turmoil caused by periods when the old order had not let go and the new order had not taken hold.  Many forces came into play and there were struggles for dominance to establish order.

Forms of this turmoil were WWI, the massive economic recession of the 1930s, WWII and the Cold War. Wars and recession are signals that the economic-social structural order is breaking down, but that a new order has not yet taken control.

Serious things go wrong. Such breakdowns lead to enormous conflicts that we call wars.  Major wars accompany great social, political and industrial change and bring out the most competitive aspects of society.  This speeds up change.   The key is that the struggle is so intense and the stakes so high that all concepts of return on investment for research and development are thrown out the window.

How can we know what’s next?

Dow chart at stockcharts.com

Cycles in the Dow at Stockcharts.com.

These cycles are one part of a compass to global economics that can help each of us determine our unique path of living, earning and investing.

The chart above shows the relationship between a falling market… faltering economy and intense military struggles that create disruptive technology leading to increased productivity in mankind.

The chart suggests that we are at the end of WWIII and well into WWIV.

The question now is… what technology will dominate WWIV?

We now know that fast, easy manipulation of information is one of the great new weapons.

Just short centuries ago the limiting velocity of information was the speed of a horse.   Now we can spread data, that runs our homes, drives our cars, pays our bills, provides our comforts, informs our beliefs… truthful or not… well meaning or otherwise…  at the speed of light.

We as individuals have to swim through this flood of information and remain afloat.

That’s why at the financial end of living, I now rely on corporate information rather than economic to guide my investing.

See a 6 minute 43 second recording below that shows why corporate information helps protect investors from the dangers of WWIV.

Gary

Profitable Investing Made EZ

There are only three steps to sustained, safe profits in investing.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value professional investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make professional investing EZ because you become smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market. 

Newton said: “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.”

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why my Purposeful investing course (Pi) is based around mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a three point good value strategy that increases their wealth again and again.

What are the three tactics of this strategy?

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limited leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 years of global investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Pi Model Portfolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses time to take advantage of value.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Listen to Michael Keppler explain his philosophy for 6 minutes and 43 seconds here.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the online Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio update lessons throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com/articles/despite-trade-truce-u-s-china-cold-war-edges-closer-11571227090?mod=itp_wsj&mod=&mod=djemITP_h

(2) www.technologyreview.com/s/614497/military-artificial-intelligence-can-be-easily-and-dangerously-fooled/?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_download.unpaid.engagement