New Inflation Scenario


The price of silver and gold are on the move… up!

We never know for sure if the rise will be sustained or high, but one thing is certain… there will be inflation.  That’s bad news for living, but usually good news for the price of gold.

Now a growing, global government interference in stock markets can push the cost of living up, even more.

gold

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) subscribers the August 2019 ENR Advisory Extra bulletin.

This advisory is for ENR’s largest clients and is only available to these large clients and PI subscribers.

ENR is one of the very few investment management companies that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks.

This report looks at why inflation is coming and how to protect our wealth now.

The bulletin begins: It’s conventional wisdom in 2019 that inflation is dead, and the U.S. dollar is King.

Pundits, professional investors, market commentators and bearish advisors have been warning about looming inflation for the past 20 years, and most recently, since the advent of global quantitative easing (QE) in 2009.

Indeed, a period of unorthodox monetary policies initiated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2009 saw more than $4.3 trillion printed to purchase U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, according to Bloomberg.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has minted about €4.65 trillion ($5.2 trillion) and is second only to the Bank of Japan, which has pumped more money into its economy to fight deflation; in fact, the Bank of Japan’s balance-sheet is now larger than the country’s gross domestic product.

And yet, despite all the money-printing – the most on record since the 1930s – inflation failed to ignite in the United States, Europe and Japan.

Even in China, several financial stimulus packages since 2009 have failed to grow inflation (see Total Assets of Major Central Banks, page 2, courtesy of Yardeni Research). According to InflationData.com, U.S. long-term average annual inflation as measured by the CPI is 3.25% from 1913 to 2018.

Before we look further into the bulletin, let’s ask, “have we really been without inflation?”

Not entirely.  According to the price history website in 2013dollars (1)  apples priced at $20 in 2000 cost $32.06 in 2019.  All food prices moved the same.

inflation

Housing was worse.  Housing priced at $100,000 in 2000 cost $155,802.64 in 2019.

Other price rises were far worse.  Take education as an example.  Educational supplies priced at $100 in 2000 were $246.23 in 2019.
College tuition priced at $20,000 in 2000 rose to $51,793.28 in 2019.  I suspect that easy student loans luring unsuspecting students had something to do with that.

Though these price increases are disturbing,  they would have been far worse if the 200o and 2009 recessions had not kept inflation down. Those recessions created a global low interest rate economic scenario that we have not seen in our lifetime.

ENR’s Advisory explains reasons why the scenario may now lead to much worse inflation.  The first part of this inflation scenario is the aging of the population.

One potential threat looms large over the next several years: U.S. entitlement spending. Mr. James Piereson, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, published an insightful and equally alarming editorial in The Wall Street Journal on February 28, 2019 titled “How Debt Makes the Market Volatile.’ According to Mr. Piereson, global credit market debt, which includes all government, corporate and consumer debt, reached $244 trillion in 2018, compared with worldwide economic output of $85 trillion– a ratio of nearly 3 to 1.

The situation is worse in the United States: The St. Louis Fed calculates that total U.S. credit-market debt was $69 trillion in December 2017 compared to $19.4 trillion of GDP – a ratio of 3.6 to 1. Since 1980, according to Mr. Piereson, credit-market debt has risen 15-fold compared with a seven-fold increase in nominal GDP.

At more than $21.5 trillion – and growing – the federal debt is an out-of-control runaway train. Mr. Piereson poignantly depicts, interest payments continue to consume a rising share of federal spending. The U.S. government spent $315 billion in net interest payments last year, nearly 8% of its total $4 trillion in expenditures. Though the average annual interest rate on federal debt has declined from 6.6% in 2001 to 2.5% currently, the drop in per-dollar interest has encouraged the government to borrow much more. If rates were to rise, even modestly, from current levels, deficit-spending could overwhelm other spending priorities.

Entitlement spending needs to be controlled. Social Security’s costs are expected to exceed income in 2020 for the first time since 1982, forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits, according to The Wall Street Journal.

By 2035, the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare will be exhausted, and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits, unless Congress boosts the program. Then there’s the federal budget. Both programs are putting more pressure on the governments’ budget projections. Social Security and Medicare account for 45% of federal spending, excluding interest payments on the national debt and have contributed to larger deficits that are set to exceed $1 trillion a year beginning in 2020.

Why focus on global debt accumulation and not just America’s government borrowing?  The aging of the global population is not just an American affair.   The population boom after WWII was international.   Now, Western societies, the US, Europe and Japan are overloaded with retirees who have been promised a lot!  But the assets to deliver the promises are not there.

Importantly, at a time when fiscal hawks in Washington and globally have literally deserted fiscal prudence, deficit spending and debt-servicing are likely to trigger the most significant inflation event since the 1970s Arab oil embargo.

The last two recessions and low interest rates have added another dilemma in the new inflation scenario.

The Advisory answers this question when it says: Central Banks Shift Bias; Inflation on ‘Sale’

As the Fed, the ECB and other central banks shift to an easing bias this year and possibly reintroduce another round of QE, global risk-based assets will appreciate. The prospect of renewed easing by the ECB only stands to intensify an already distorted bond market and encourage investors to buy riskier securities. At some point, that could become a trigger for a nasty bout of financial turmoil. According to Deutsche Bank, about 25% of the world’s sovereign bond markets now have negative yields.

With a total of 35 global central banks already cutting interest rates this year, the odds increasingly favor a mad dash into global equities later this fall and into 2020. Declining rates are bullish for stocks and bonds; also bullish is the possibility of the ECB purchasing euro-zone equities, similarly to the Bank of Japan.

What if the Fed follows suit and purchases stocks? The ongoing distortions in euro-zone and Japanese bond markets might spread to stocks, if central banks launch asset purchases of said assets in Europe and the United States. The Bank of Japan, for example, owns about 75% of the country’s exchange-traded fund market and is a top ten shareholder in 40% of Japan’s listed companies, according to The Financial Times.

That’s an incredible intrusion on capital markets. A central bank has no business buying stocks.

As the world rushes into equities and credit again, financial risks will grow. And one of those risks is inflation – virtually on nobody’s radar. More money-printing, larger deficits and wider distortions in asset prices will eventually come home to roost when this incredible monetary experiment is finally exhausted.

One way to survive inflation is to invest in good value equity markets.  I explain this at Profitable Investing Made EZ

The ENR Advisory provides some inflation fighting clues and says:  Surviving Inflation: How to Invest and includes 4 inflation hedges. These include gold bullion, B2Gold Corp., Japanese yen, and the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Trust.

The Advisory says (bolds are mine) : The first inflation asset to buy now is gold bullion, preferably in physical form.

Gold ETFs are a secondary option and should be used mainly as a diversification tool for institutional investors and managed accounts because gold ownership is more expensive. You can buy gold domestically in the United States through reputable dealers like KITCO, The Hartford Gold Group, Asset Strategies International and Advantage Gold.

Americans can also tuck some gold in their IRAs.

If you must buy an ETF, I like the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE-IAU) levying just 0.25% per annum in fees.

Also, providing much less liquidity but also less expensive, is the Graniteshares Gold Trust (NYSE-BAR), charging an industry-leading 0.175% in annual fees.

Silver is also dirt-cheap, especially compared to gold.  The Gold-to-Silver ratio sits at its highest levels in more than 30 years, meaning silver is extremely undervalued compared to gold.

Though more cyclically tied to the global economy, silver is nevertheless a monetary metal and will follow gold prices higher. From its high of $48.60 an ounce in 2011, silver is down a dizzying 66% at just $16.44 an ounce. I like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE-SLV).

No other real asset has endured a deeper bear market than commodities. From all-time highs in July 2008, commodities are still down more than 60%.

Historically, inflation tends to rise after periods of low inflation, and vice versa. Considering how conventional market wisdom has essentially ‘given up’ on rising inflation after almost four decades of falling prices coupled with the prospects of significantly higher U.S. deficit financing, real assets look like a big bargain in mid-2019.

Inflation has been held down over the last 20 years by low interest rates and increased global productivity created by the introduction of computers and the internet into commerce.

The benefits of these technological advances are likely to wane and added to the problems created by an aging  society and wanton government spending… we can logically expect a dramatic increase in inflation.

See one way to beat inflation by leveraging speculations in silver and gold with an overpriced US dollar below.

ENR Asset Management is one of the few SEC registered investing advisors that can assist American investors in banking in Austria and Switzerland.  For details send me a note with the words AUSTRIA in the subject line to gary@garyascott.com

Gary

Turn $250 into $51,888, Guaranteed

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

(1) www.in2013dollars.com/College-tuition-and-fees/price-inflation