Part 5 – Why Half of America Can’t Sleep at Night


Stress can ruin our brain, reduce our thinking and eliminate clear thought.

According to recent research, stress can lead to Alzheimer’s disease, by triggering a degenerative process in your brain and precipitating disruption of your neuroendocrine and immune system.

Huh.

I guess we had better look for a clearer explanation.

stress

An article at Mercola.com (1) shows a relationship between Alzheimer’s Disease and stress.

The article says: researchers found that nearly three out of four Alzheimer’s patients had experienced severe emotional stress during the two years preceding their diagnosis, compared to just over one in four in the control group.

Alzheimer’s disease currently afflicts about 5.4 million Americans, including one in eight people aged 65 and over.

Research suggests that the best hope is in prevention focusing on diet, exercise and staying mentally active.

We should look for ways to reduce stress in every part of our life.

For example we should all have low stress ways to invest.

My low stress system is based on 50 years of global stock market experience matched up with several of Warren Buffet’s quotes.

The first quote is “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

Our strategy is very long term, but recognizes that Merri and I are well into our 70s.   We focus on balancing our income, bonds, stock investments and shares so we never have to sell shares for liquidity.  This protects us from having to bail out of equities when stock prices are down.

Our system is set so we don’t have to watch the market on a daily, even weekly basis.

There are too many other things to do in the years we have left. 

We buy good value and hold it.

As Buffett says:  “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

“What investors need is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals.  A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period – or even to look foolish – is also essential.”

Our system is really simple, based on value and for much of the time our system also matches up with advice from Buffet’s original value mentor, Benjamin Graham who said:

Investing is buying stocks for less than they are fundamentally worth. This makes sure that you don’t overpay. On the other hand, speculation is trying to predict the timing and nature of uncertain future events. If you are trading frequently, and thinking about dramatic future events rather than the steady plod of past outcomes, then you are probably a speculator.

The problem with speculation is that is it very hard to do because it requires forecasting.

Graham concluded that it is “absurd” for the investor to think he or she will be a successful market forecaster.   After decades of stock investing, I came to the same conclusion.  It was absurd for me to think I could predict the future.

Markets are continually adapting.   History will never exactly repeat itself.  This makes market forecasting  so unlikely to work for most people.   That’s the realization that led me to create an easy way to find value using math and current stock market pricing fundamentals.

Margin of Safety

The idea of a margin of safety is to have a “Cushion to tide you through adversity.” Any company or stock market can hit hard times.  A margin of safety provides an ability to weather a storm without necessarily losing money. The discount an investor gains on purchase is the cushion that makes it harder to lose money.

A margin of safety combined with diversification removes the need for any single investment to be good all the time.  When invested in a number of companies, all with reasonable margins of safety, the end result is likely to be positive.  No single poor investment throws an entire portfolio off track.   There is a better chance that there’s always a good investment available to sell if liquidity is required.

In a way my entire system is a modification of Warren Buffet’s simple advice to the trustee for his wife: “Put 10 percent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 percent in very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

My system keeps enough liquidity (short term bonds) to handle any immediate short and medium liquidity needs.  The rest goes into real estate and stocks.

The modifications are:

  • We apply value to stock markets instead of stocks.
  • We look at 43 stock markets globally instead of just the US market.
  • We diversify into indexes of good value stock markets instead of good value shares.

This is a low stress system that offers incredible safety and exceptional opportunity without high management fees, excess time spent following markets, or trading costs often associated with stock investing.

We offer a course (The Purposeful Investing Course) on how to create this system.

The system is really easy to use, but hard for me to market because this type of low stress investing is boring!

Most investors want exciting things.  They want activity, promises of fat and fat profits, without risk.  They want an adrenaline rush.

That’s okay, I’ll stick to my guns and keep repeating this fact…  “stress kills.

Boring is good.  If your investments are exciting, you are doing something wrong.

The only real speculation I do is to determine the portfolio’s ratio of top value developed markets versus top value emerging markets.

The United States stock market represents about a third of the world’s market capitalization.  Emerging Markets represent about a quarter.  Investors who hold a world portfolio weighted by market capitalization, have about a fourth of the portfolio in emerging market equities.

I speculate just a bot because an abundance of economic research suggests that a mix of 70% stable and 30% high risk investments usually gives the best risk reward ratio.

I keep between 20% and 30% of my portfolio in emerging markets, but do not finely tune this balance at all.

We use the analysis of Keppler Asset Management to select an equally weighted combination of attractively valued emerging markets that offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.  This combination makes up 20% to 30% of my portfolio.

The table below shows Keppler’s latest quarterly analysis of the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio and compares it to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI World Index as of the end of September 2018, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler

I use this analysis to compare it with Keppler’s Top Value Developed Markets.  Currently the Price to book of developed markets is almost as good as Top Value Developed Markets.  The developed market dividend yield is better than emerging markets and only the emerging P/E ratio is significantly better.

keppler

The emerging markets do not look that much better (in value) than developed markets, so if a buy or sell event appears at this time, I would tend to shift my portfolio weighting down towards 20% emerging markets.

I only do a regular assessment once every three months.   Otherwise , unless there is some significant change in the world, I leave the portfolio alone.  No stress!

Overall, the odds are that my portfolio will outperform the S&P 500 in the years ahead.

The math supports me and it’s a really simple, low stress deal!

At times the portfolio outperforms the S&P 500.  At other times, like now, not.  Here is the performance of my portfolio held at online broker Motif.

motif

At times like this when the US dollar and the S&P 500 are near all time high points, I remember that tidbit of Buffett advice, “Having a willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period – or even to look foolish – is essential.”

I  look at this time of US dollar strength as a non dollar buying opportunity as I also recall some more of Buffet’s advice:

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

Our portfolio is simple, low cost, well diversified, and statistically offers the highest change of optimal return in the long run and  perhaps most important of all… is pretty darn free of excitement and stress.

Stress kills.  Stress can eliminate clear thought and cloud our investment thinking.  Stress can make us poor and reduce our quality of life as it destroys our health and well being.

Whether you use the low stress system of investing I have created or not… I urge you to find some low stress way of dealing with your finances.

Look for ways to reduce stress in every aspect of your life.  Your brain will thank you by working better for you longer in your life.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to that invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) articles.mercola.com: Stress & alzheimers


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