Spooky Thought on Health & Wealth


Here is a thought that is so spooky it would be funny if the problem were not so serious.

Last week’s message Ecuador Shamanic Pumpkin Health Tip looked at how Ecuador shamans use pumpkins to help improve health.  Then the post shared ayurvedic nutritional ideas on why we should eat pumpkin during the autumn and winter.

Beware

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The next day a friend who has great experience in ayurved wrote:  Gary, when the Europeans came to N. America originally they found many of the natives suffering from severe psoriasis. The natives had many remedies for this most of which involved tar in some way or another.  Pumpkins and winter squashes in general are said in Ayurveda to be the source of most of the serious skin diseases people suffer from and one of the ways to remedy those skin diseases is simply to stop eating them. We don’t have them in our diet at all and haven’t had for 15 years.

When I pointed out that winter squashes and pumpkin were recommended for winter eating by an ayurvedic physician who has been very helpful to Merri and me over the past 20 years, our friend replied:  That Doctor’s learning is from the books and not from a family tradition.  The simple fact remains, the winter squashes, and pumpkin in particular, produce skin disease.

I did not bother to point out that the Ecuador shaman we worked with, who definitely used pumpkins in his nutritional plan was also a healer of many generations.  His father and grandfather, etc.  were great healers as well and this yatchak had been taken at age five and apprenticed to other great healers up and down North, Central and South America.

Needless to say this message is not about pumpkins, its about the dangers of trying to process overwhelming amounts of data.

Getting too much input can be worse than not having enough.

The Natural Health Crunch

Expanded horizons should bring expanded ability and wisdom.  Wouldn’t you think?  Yet it is known that a foible of the human mind is its reluctance to make too many decisions.   A choice of two chocolates in a box is better than one. Six choices better than two.  When there are more than six or seven choices the satisfaction of the chocolate decision grows less rather than more.  Confusion overcomes options.

The mental juggling is even worse if you like all of the chocolate choices given.

So too with the process of natural health.  Believe strongly in one proven health system, use it and you’ll have good natural health.  In fact there is evidence that the faith in a natural health system is as important as the system itself.

Knowing two systems can confuse and create doubt in both systems.  Know three disciplines and the confusion can grow exponentially.

Anita Moorjani, best selling author, explains this problem in her book “Dying To Be Me“.

After fighting cancer for almost four years, the cancer in her body was at stage 4B (throughout her body).  Her weight was down to 90 pounds.  Overwhelmed by malignant cells, her organs began shutting down.  In a coma, she entered into an extraordinary near-death experience where she realized her inherent worth . . . and the actual cause of her disease. Upon regaining consciousness, Anita found that her condition had improved so rapidly that she was able to be released from the hospital within weeks . . . without a trace of cancer in her body though medical doctors with experience in this field said, “Whichever way I look at it, you should be dead!”

The book tells how she was raised in Hong Kong by her Indian parents, cared for by a Cantonese nanny and given a British education. She is multilingual speaking English, Cantonese, and an Indian dialect.  Yet when diagnosed with cancer in April 2002 she returned to her Indian roots and after six months of living a pure ayurvedic life with a guru, she felt cured.

Upon returning to Hong Kong she began suffering death by doubt as exposure to multi cultural health sciences, that all worked differently, eroded the belief in her cure and confused her health.

Moorjani wrote: When I returned home to Hong Kong at first many people remarked on how well I looked.  I certainly felt better than I had, both physically and emotionally, but my jubilation was short lived. It wasn’t long before others wanted to know what I had been doing for so long in India and how I’d healed.

When I told them about my ayurvedic regimen, however, I received mainly fear-based and negative responses. These were well meaning people who genuinely cared about me and my well-being, and they were skeptical about my choices, which is why they had such a great impact on me. Most believed that cancer couldn’t be treated in that way, and I slowly felt the doubts and fear creeping back into my psyche as I defended my position.

I attempted to understand Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), since it’s commonly practiced here. However because it conflicted so much with my Ayurveda, I was left feeling very confused.

To make matters worse, I turned to Western naturopathy for help because I was so bewildered.  This not only added to the confusion, but also increased my fears. I was getting conflicting information from every discipline.

So I became very stressed about food and was afraid of eating almost anything. I didn’t know what was good for me and what wasn’t, because each system of healing espoused a different truth ad they all conflicted with one another. This confusion only added to my already overwhelming ears. And as the terror tightly griped me in its vice once more, I watched helplessly as my health rapidly deteriorated.

Confusion can ruin investing as well.

Too much input about markets, stock, economies and all the bad news that floods the daily media is overwhelming.   We each need a simple strategy that we understand and that we stick to.

The book Too Big to Fail by Andrew Sorkin explains how Warren Buffett  does not research by maintaining a database of up-to-the-quarter estimates, etc.   So much data would dilute and distract from the deep focus on the areas he does research.

Buffet’s research is  from reading publicly available documentation, introductions from trusted lieutenants, and personally meeting the leaders of his investment prospects.  Buffett keeps it simple and understandable to him.

Too big to fail

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Whether you are thinking about pumpkins, investments or Presidential candidates (now that’s a real spooky thought!), limit your input to what you understand, what you are passionate about and what makes you feel good.  If the 11 oclock news leaves you feeling sleepless, don’t turn it on.  Tonight its okay to be spooky, but there is no reason to get spooked every night.

Gary

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

(1) Get free pumpkin stencils