The Relentless Search for Value – Autumn 2014


What is the best we can do in the rapidly evolving socio-economic world?

The recent message “Guilt Free Business”  looked at how low interest rates are forcing investors into overpriced equities.  An expansion to this problem is that the reliable  Blue Chips are no longer so reliable any more.

Coke & Mcdonalds

Are even these Blue Chips blue?

The new CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella summed up the problem in a recent newspaper video interview (1).  His comment was “You need new concepts with new innovation, and you have to have new capability and culture to go after those new concepts,” he says. “Your existing success kind of fights those things, so you have to over-amplify the new concept and the culture required for it. And that’s the journey.”

We see this as stock market stalwarts.

#1:  IBMs shares dropped the most since April after sales fell for the sixth straight quarter and its hardware business posted a loss.

IBM’s shift to higher-margin software and services failed to make up for a slump in sales of servers and other computer hardware. Even the company’s traditional growth markets — developing economies overseas, including China — aren’t helping prop up sales. IBM posted the first revenue decrease in those markets in its history last quarter.  (2)

#2:  McDonald’s global comparable sales dropped 3.3% reflecting a decline in guest traffic in all major segments.  Third-quarter earnings fell a worse-than-expected 30%. McDonald’s reported a profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.09 a share, vs. $1.52 billion, or $1.52 a share, a year earlier. (3)

#3:  Coca Cola reported that flat soda volume in the third quarter.  Earnings and revenue fell.  Shares dropped 6.24% in a day.  Coke’s worldwide beverage volumes grew 1%, but soda volume was flat.  Total beverage sales barely rose and the critical North American sales of soda and non-carbonated drinks both fell.

#4:  Amazon.com has forecast its worst in a decade loss and had its biggest quarterly net loss since at least 2003.  Sales and profit forecast for the fourth quarter were below analysts’ projections. The forecast shows the company’s largest annual loss in 12 years.

If IBM, Coca Cola., McDonalds and Amazon.com cannot be trusted, what can we do to protect the purchasing power of our savings and wealth?

Trust in value.  Through ups and down, thick and thin, good times and bad, bulls and bears, expansions, recessions and depressions think long term value.  Most of the great wealth has been accumulated by buying good long term value during corrections created by short term trends.

This is why once a quarter we review all developed multi currency equity markets through the Keppler Asset Management’s Global Market Value analysis.  If you are a new reader learn more about Keppler below. (6)

Here is Keppler’s review of Recent Developments & Outlook as of October 17, 2014.

Global equity prices moved up again in local currencies and in Euros last quarter, making it the 12th consecutive positive quarter in local currencies since September 2011.  The MSCI World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) advanced 0.8 % in local currencies, lost 2.2 % in US dollars and gained 6.0 % in Euros.   The Euro accelerated its recent downtrend last quarter, giving up 7.7 % versus the US dollar and now stands at 1.2633 USD/EUR, down 8.3 % from its 2013 year-end level of 1.3780.

Fourteen markets advanced and nine markets declined last quarter. Israel (+7.6 %), Japan (+5.8 %) and Finland (+5.3 %) were the best performing developed markets last quarter.

Portugal (-18.7 %), Austria (-15.0 %) and Germany (-3.7 %) performed worst.

Year-to-date, twenty markets included in the MSCI Developed Markets universe were up and three markets declined.

The best performing markets in the first nine months of 2014 were Israel (+28.7 %), Denmark (+25.3 %),  Italy (+14.0 %).

Austria (-17.3 %), Portugal (-12.5 %) and Germany (-1.8 %) performed worst year-to-date. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

There were no changes in our country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio currently holds ten “Buy”-rated markets — Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom — at equal weights. According to our analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

keppler chart

Click on image to enlarge

The table above shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the end of the third quarter 2014, based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts). In addition, we show the MSCI World Index at its All-Time High Valuation at the end of the last Millennium and its All-Time Low Valuation at the end of 1974.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the Equally-Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.  Our numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years.  The chart includes two remarkable episodes: the five-year period (1997-2001) during which the Equally Weighted World Index stayed above the upper valuation band, and the period starting in October 2008, when the Equally Weighted World Index last fell below the lower valuation band, where it has stayed during the last five years and seven months. It was only in May this year that it penetrated from below the lower valuation band, estimated at LC 8,925 four years earlier.  The Equally Weighted World index now stands at LC 9,122, 5.2 % above the lower valuation band forecasted four years ago.

keppler chart

Click on image to enlarge

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the Equally Weighted World Index is expected to rise to 12,749 from its current level of 9,122. This corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 8.7 % in local currencies — up marginally from 8.6 % last quarter.  The upper-band estimate of 15,298 by September 30, 2018 implies a compound annual total return of 13.8 % (up from 13.6 % three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of 10,199 corresponds to a compound annual total return of 2.8 % (up from 2.7 % three months ago).  Interestingly enough, even this lower estimate beats the expected returns over three to five years for most alternatives in the fixed income area.

Annual growth rates of key fundamentals have declined considerably compared to last quarter.  Annual book value growth (September 2014 over September 2013) for the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 3.1 % (compared to 8.2 % as of June 30, 2014 and its historic average annual growth rate of 11.3 % p.a. since the end of 1969 – the start of the MSCI database).

Cash flow is up 2.9 % over the last twelve months (previous quarter +8.6 %; historic average: +10.8 %) and earnings actually declined 1.5 % year over year (previous quarter +9.3 %; historic average: +11.0 %).

Finally, dividends for the Equally-Weighted World Index grew 1.9 % in the last twelve months as compared to the annual growth rate of 11.9 % as of the end of June 2014 and its historic annual growth going back to the end of 1969 of 11.3 %.  All numbers are in local currencies.  So, there is no doubt that the dynamics of the global economy have slowed down.  However, given the low interest environment and the lack of attractive investment alternatives, equities continue to be the preferred asset.

Michael Keppler, October 17, 2014

Multi Currency Report & Value subscribers can read Keppler’s full 79 page Developed Market Value report at their password protected page. Click here.

Learn how to obtain a multi currency and value subscription password here.

Low interest rates are forcing investors into overpriced equities.  Changes in consumer tastes make it increasingly difficult to rely even on Blue Chip shares.  This is why it is important to relentlessly seek value.

Gary

Protect purchasing power with a self publishing business.

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

gary-scott-image

Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the places I have lived.   Anywhere I am,  I am  able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from a laptop business.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms in Florida and North carolina, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Hugh and I playing chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like Hugh are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course on how to expand the profits of what you write called “Eventful Business” (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The business course “Eventful Business”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund. 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.

 

(1)  Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Interview

(2) Bloomberg Story on IBM losses

(3)  USA Today Story on McDonald’s Losses

(4)  USA Today story on Slump at Coca Cola

(5)  Bloomberg on Amazon.com’s losses

(6)  About Keppler Asset Management