Three Current Multi Currency Equity Warnings


Here are three current multi currency equity warnings.

Long term market predictions rely on value and fundamentals rather than unpredictable short term fashion and emotion.  These long term indicators are dependable and accurate whereas the emotions that move the daily market are not.

In 2007  I wrote at this site:  Long term World Report readers know how much I believe in 30 year market cycles and that we are currently in a 15 year downward cycle supported by a history of over 100 years.

These cycles are intricately connected with waves of productivity.  Each productive evolution has been fueled by new technology, water power first, then steam, the internal combustion engine, jet engine, TV, telephone, computer and internet…all little productive ducks in a row…each helping mankind process more.  Each technology grew in perfection due to a war.

You can see this quite clearly, in the graph below, how each upwards cycle rises after a war (postwar boom) and how the market then crashes before the next upcoming war.

The first postwar boom probably started in about 1865. We cannot see this as the chart does not start until 1890. I am guessing the 1865 date because this was the end of the War between the States. This war was a battle over cotton the primary ingredient used in the water powered industrial revolution, an era dominated by textiles.

We can see this boom carrying on up through 1900.

The first fifteen year downwards cycle began in 1900 a downfall leading to WWI in 1914. There were a couple of short term blips (which also occurred in other cycles) probably one caused by the Russo-Japanese War which ended in 1905 when President Theodore Roosevelt mediated the Treaty of Portsmouth. The blip you see in 1907 was called the panic of 1907 and was caused by a run on the banking system. This was stopped by J.P Mogan’s importation of $100 million of gold from Europe , but the correction was only temporary as the chart clearly shows.  (This is important as we’ll see in a moment.)

Don’t we wish that the world’s economic problems could be solved with a mere $100 million of gold today?

Anyway at the end of WWI we see the next post war boom which runs up to 1929.

Then comes the next fifteen year down cycle from 1929 to 1945.

As in the last cycle there is a sharp downward blip in the middle caused by a run on U.S. banks which is once again mitigated by intervention, this time, FDR’s Presidential election and the New Deal.

There is a nice postwar boom 1946 through 1968 once again followed by a fifteen year downfall. (Note the sharp downwards blip in the middle caused when high inflation, a devaluing US dollar, and rising oil prices once again shook the U.S. banking system).

1968 began the next 15 year downwards cycle which was the rundown to WWIII (Reagan-Thatcher versus the Evil Empire), albeit a cold war.  That war caused the end of the USSR and the nuclear threat we had lived under. 

That ending in 1980 kicked off a post war boom that ran (surprise-surprise) for about 15 years until the crash of 1998.

Is this a coincidence or a pattern? If history has anything to do with the future then we can expect the following:

#1:  The next big bull market in Wall Street will begin about 2012.

That prediction was spot on and shows how accurate these long term fundamentals can be.

Three Warnings

online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB30001424052702304672404579188422879933300\

“New-Issue Flurry Hints At Trouble” for Markets by E.S. Browning

Just as financial markets were recovering from the Washington turmoil, a new danger signal has started blinking, in the form of a flood of stock and bond issues.  Many people see no problem. They find the new-issue action exciting, as the hoopla over last week’s $2.1 billion offering by Twitter Inc. TWTR -2.70% showed.

But when new issues become as massive as they are today, it can mean markets are overheating and getting ready to give back some gains. That is why some experienced investors weren’t wearing party hats at the Twitter celebration.
“I wouldn’t be surprised by a market correction here. I don’t think anyone would,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees more than $950 million in Washington, D.C.

Another Wall Street Journal article “Stocks Regain Broad Appeal – Individual Investors Are Returning to Stocks, Which Could Be Bad”  by Alexandra Scaggs says:    Mom-and-pop investors largely sat out the early years of the stock-market rebound, many of them still rattled by the 37% decline in the S&P 500 index in 2008. Meanwhile, institutions such as insurers fueled a broad rally by pouring cash into the market.

Five years after the financial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid signs that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. But the renewed optimism among retail investors is considered by many professionals to be a warning sign, thanks to a long history of Main Street arriving late to market rallies.

Cyclic Warning

We show this graph at our International Investing & Business seminars.

economic cycles

Click on chart to enlarge.

We are exiting the recovery stage where authorities relax money supply and there is high unemployment and high levels of uncertainty when the best place to invest is in shares.

We are entering a boom cycle where the best place to invest is cash, with rising inflation, falling unemployment and PE multiples expand.

Biggest Warning – Value

The recent post at this site Why the US dollar will fall  reviewed the Keppler Asset Management’s best value developed equity markets and Keppler’s implicit three to five year projection.

Keppler wrote:  Our implicit three-to-five-year projection corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 10.6 % in local currencies — down from 13.4 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 15.8 %, while the lower-band estimate corresponds to a compound annual total of a 4.6 % return.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/10645871053/in/photostream/

Growth rates of important fundamentals have kept up relatively well in the current low-interest environment: While the annual book value growth (September 2013 over September 2012) for the Equally Weighted World Index in local currencies dropped to 4.8 % from 7.5 % at the end of last June, both, cash flow and earnings growth accelerated to 5.1 % (previous quarter: 4.8 %) and 6.0 % (1.0 %), respectively. Dividend growth, which jumped to 7.6 % year over year at the end of June, slowed down a bit to an annual growth rate of 6.9 % at the end of the third quarter.

Monetary easing and high opportunity costs continue to drive equity prices. As expressed here before, multiples continue to expand: The price/earnings ratio of the Equally Weighted World Index which bottomed in September 2011 at 10.8 has now reached a new 42-month high at 16.4 – up from 14.2 at the beginning of the year. This 15.4 % increase of the price/earnings ratio in the first nine months 2013 now exceeds the 14.3 % year-to-date total return of the Equally Weighted World Index. Since the 43 3⁄4-year average price/earnings ratio of the Equally Weighted World Index is 15.2, we are now slightly above the historic average, but far from being excessive, considering that we experienced p/e-ratios in the high twenties on several occasions in the past. Multiple expansion will most likely continue in the current low-interest environment.

These implicit three-to-five-year projections are considerably down from recent years and earlier this year.

What can we do?

During the 2007 to 2009 meltdown, I was investing in bonds and have been reaping some nice rewards.  In 2010 I began investing the bond maturities into equities and really inexpensive Florida real estate to hold as rentals.  Now where?  I have a buildup of cash and hate this zero return stuff.  However I do have a solution shared in tomorrow’s message.

Until then, good investing and may everything else be bright as well!

Learn more about multi currency investing via Canada and Denmark from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Non Americans contact  Henrik Boelling at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

Save $200 on November early bird specials for Super Spanish courses and the February 2014 International Investing & Business course.

Gary

I am starting the 2014 update of my Report Borrow Low – Deposit High.  All subscribers to this report will automatically receive this update upon its publication.

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

WSJ New-Issue Flurry Hints At Trouble For Markets

WSJ Stocks Regain Broad Appeal