Serene Success


Serenity brings real success.  Reinhold Niebuhr’s prayer of serenity is a favorite.  God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

How can we enjoy serenity and success in such a tension filled world?

Our publications have always been about finding value in the right place… before the right time.  This is a personal journey… there is a great peace to be found in the knowing  that you are in the right place…  for you.

The three right places we have been focusing on recently are the right currency  (the US dollar is at risk), the right business  (the old way of supporting a great lifestyle with a job is diminishing) and Ecuador.  Ecuador is a great place to be… low cost… good weather… close to North America and filled with a warm, friendly population.

This post touches a bit on all three (a good currency… an earning idea and an Ecuador idea). We hope they help you to see options that move you toward serene success in a tension filled world.

Serene Currency

It is hard to remain calm when one’s currency is losing its purchasing power by the day and the dollar fell last week to its lowest level since February.  (Markets were surprised by the Federal Reserve’s decision to continue communications on keeping monthly bond purchases unabated depending on the strength of the economy.)

The U.S. currency fell against most of the 16 highest traded currencies.  This was the third straight week of dollar weakening.  Now it must withstand a test of confidence as Congress battles over the debt ceiling and budget.

One way to regain calm is to hold a basket of fundamentally stronger currencies that pay higher interest.

Recent posts have looked at the ENR Global Currency Sandwich  as an equally-weighted anti-dollar portfolio including the Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar and gold bullion.

These are good value currencies.   We reviewed the Singapore dollar in the recent post “More Problems Emerge in Multi Currency Market“.  The post  Are we days from Dollar Disaster   reviewed the Mexican peso.

finance.yahoo.com NZ dollar Chart

NZ – US dollar Chart from www.finance.yahoo.com

The New Zealand dollar has risen 23% versus the US dollar since 2009. Click on chart to enlarge.

The chart above and this one below show that the Kiwi has risen steadily after the 2009 fear based dollar boost and it is in a much longer term trend as well.

finance.yahoo.com NZ dollar Chart

The New Zealand dollar is a good place to diversify some of your investment and savings for the next year or so when the US dollar is at risk of a large downwards slide.

Compare the fundamentals of the US versus New Zealand. The first important statistic is the interest rate, 2.62% for New Zealand and  0.25% for the US.  Budget deficit for New Zealand  is -2.1% of GDP.  The US deficit is -4%.  These fundamentals suggest that the Kiwi will maintain strength versus the US dollar and pay a higher return.

Two AAA rated short term New Zealand bonds:

EUROPEAN INVT BK   6.500  maturing 10-09-2014  AAA  selling at 103  yields appx. 3.27% per annum.

KFW   6.375  maturing 17-02-2015  rated AAA  selling at 104 yields appx. 3.25% per annum

We’ll review various multi currency portfolios at our October 4-5-6 International Business and Investing seminar. See details below.

Serene Serena

Having a purpose and setting goals doing something you love that generates income can help calm a hectic lifestyle.  Relaxed concentration comes from knowing who you are and acting on it.  Take Serena Williams as an example… who at age 33 suddenly zoomed back after having lost her winning edge.

Her coach Patrick Mouratoglou gives us a clue when he said “Mentally, she’s different. She really wants it,” the Frenchman coach said. “She’s working like she’s 19 years old and wants to win her first Grand Slam. She has the same appetite.  “That makes a huge difference. How many players being (almost) 32 have the same appetite and especially after winning so many Grand Slams? I mean, they are different. Serena is really different, mentally,” he said.

When asked what adjustments has he made to Williams’ impeccable game, he responded: “When you have a player at that level, small changes make big differences. Small changes make major differences. They can make someone play from a great level to an unbelievable level.

“The better you achieve what you want to achieve, the more confidence you get. The more confidence you get, the more difficult to beat also you get. So little things have many consequences,” he added.

“Stay relaxed and stay confident . . . and you can do whatever you want to do – in anything.”

Those are good tips. Start with small changes that build confidence. Then build on the confidence.

Serena Williams gives some more great tips on gaining serenity in an article linked below.

She says that one of the secrets to being a successful knowing when to pursue a goal, and when to give up.  She says:  “Luck has nothing to do with [my success], because I have spent many, many hours, countless hours, on the court working for my one moment in time, not knowing when it would come.”

We know that tenacity and hard work are a part of success but when we set our own goals it is important to be realistic… to keep in mind our own resources, time, talent and experience.  We need to blend our infrastructure with our desire and recognize our weaknesses (to work on) as well as our strengths.

The article about Serena’s success is linked below and shares these three tips for setting and achieving goals that support your purpose (bolds are mine).

1. Set goals that represent who you are. “I was just tired of losing,” says Serena Williams. “Life was passing me by.” She is incredibly successful at playing tennis because she got tired of feeling left behind. Williams chose a life goal that she was passionate about, that represented who she was. And, she not only won…she’s also happy and fulfilled. To create a successful life plan, you need to figure out who you really are as a woman.

2. Set your intentions and focus on what you want to achieve. “If you can keep playing tennis when somebody is shooting a gun down the street, that’s concentration.”

3. Let go of the past. “I decided I can’t pay a person to rewind time, so I may as well get over it.”

Those are great tips, especially doing what you love and being yourself.

Author Scott Nicholson shares another tip on serenity and self publishing. See this tip in a 3 minutes and 36 second here.

Screen shot 2013-09-18 at 5.20.06 PM

Scott Nicholson interview: The Most Important Self Publishing Tip

Ecuador Get Together – All You Need to Know

Roberto Ribadeneira, Head of the Ateam Ecuador, in Quito

Many people have sent us emails asking for details about our upcoming Get Together Seminar. For a big number the idea of having everything that they need to know in one place is indispensable.

We get questions about immigration, visas, security, real state, where to rent, which cities are best, if they can have extra income or if they can work here, how far is one city from another, whether to buy or not a car, how is the weather, about people, etc.

This week we will look at five areas of focus in Ecuador.

#1:  Ecuador medical benefits.

#2: Ecuador food right from where it is grown in less than 24 hours.

#3:  Ecuador peace and stability

#4: Ecuador business opportunities.

#5:  Yachay Ecuador’s City of Knowledge, an immense construction over 4.200 hectares (10,000 acres).Yachay will be composed of four sectors;  Agriculture and Biotechnology – Entertainment – Industrial Technology  and fourth Knowledge.

Ecuador’s City of Knowledge is under construction at a rural location not far from Cotacachi near the small village, Urcuqui.   Ecuador’s minister of higher education, science, technology, and innovation, says that the goal is to make this school first class.  The goal is for Yachay to be part of that international network of knowledge development, that will help Ecuador’s economy evolve in a positive way.

There is a good four part report on CNET news.   Read that report here.

One of the project managers will be a speaker at our seminar and will talk about the city, its purposes and how it will be something that will change the technological future of Ecuador. Not only that but also will create a pharmaceutical complex that will bring private and public companies in order to create a “Hub” in Yachay for developing pharmaceutical products.

Ecuador Yachay

Yachay Citi of Knowledge under construction.

You might join the group in November 7-8 in Quito and get to see just how this trip can change your life.

If you have any questions please write to roberto_ribadeneira@me.com or call his toll free number 1-888-482-3850.

Tomorrow we’ll look at Ecuador’s use of 911.

Ecuador 911

Ecuador-911 headquarters. Photo credit ecu-911

Serenity. Where will you find it?  In a currency?  In writing? In Ecuador?   Not at all. Serenity  is only found within… when you know your purpose and then follow that path.  But the tips above may assist in finding that path. I hope so and look forward to sharing it with you.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

Theadventureouswriter.com on Serena Williams