Important Multi Currency Shift – Emerging Market Value Update – Summer 2013


We can see a huge multi currency market shift  in this Emerging Market Value Update.   There was a huge value shift of global stock markets in 2010. 

Prior to the 2010 shift we weighted our recommendations toward investments in emerging markets.  They enjoyed faster growth than developed markets.  Then in 2010 we warned that values had flipped.  Developed markets offered better value than emerging markets.

This value advice was valuable.  Since the proof of the pudding is in the eating, here is the proof.   This site recommended that the easiest way to reach major market value was the iShares MSCI World Index Fund ETF (symbol XWD ).  The MSCI World Index represents the value of 6,000 shares in 23 Developed Markets countries.

yahoo major market chart

Click on charts to enlarge.

This iShares ETF represents an investment in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index World.  This chart from www.finance.yahoo.com  shows the ETF is up 31.05% since early 2010.

yahoo emerging market chart

During this same period this chart from www.finance.yahoo.com of the IShares Morgan Stanley Capital Index Emerging Market Index ETF shows that this index dropped  -2.42% over the same period.

Now the values have flipped again.  See why below in the Keppler Asset Management Emerging Market Value Update for the Summer of 2013.

Once a quarter we look at the emerging equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.  Michael’s firm is the best when it comes to value analysis of stock markets.

Here is an update on the values of emerging stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Recent Developments & Outlook

In the eleven years from the turn of the century to the end of 2010, Emerging Markets had a total return of 10.2 % p.a. This compares to a compound annual loss of 0.28 % for the Developed Markets during the same period.

Since then, this trend has turned and the Emerging Markets have lost about 22 % in relative performance.

The trend of underperformance has even accelerated this year with Emerging Markets losing some 4.9 %, while their sisters in the Developed Markets were up 11.7 % through the end of June 2013.

In the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) declined 4.4 % in local currencies, 8.1 % in US dollars and 9.2 % in Euros. Year-to-date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index is down 4.9 %, 9.6 % and 8.3 % in local currencies, US dollars and Euros, respectively. The index now stands at $ 1,239 and € 1,051. The Euro gained 1.2 % versus the US dollar in the second quarter and, at the end of June, stood at 1.2999 (USD/EUR), down 1.4 % compared with its level of 1.3184 at year-end 2012.

Among the three regional indices, Asia gave up 3.2 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 3.1 % and Latin America lost 8.9 %. Year-to-date, all three regional indices declined: Asia by 3.3 %, EMEA by 4.1 % and Latin America by 10.0 %. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Five markets advanced and sixteen markets declined last quarter.

Malaysia (+8.4 %), Hungary (+8.2 %) and India (+3.2 %) performed best, while Peru (-27.5 %), Turkey (-9.9 %), and Brazil (-9.4 %) did worst in the last three months.

Year-to-date, the Philippines (+13.8 %), Indonesia and Malaysia (both up 8.8 %) performed best. Peru (-29.3 %), the Czech Republic (-17.4 %) and Egypt (-11.8 %) came in last.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1988 = 100) declined 2.5 % in local currencies, 4.4 % in US dollars and 5.6 % in Euros last quarter.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Strategy lost 3.4 % in local currencies, 8.1 % in US dollars and 6.8 % in Euros.

There was one change in our performance ratings last quarter: Turkey was downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy”.

Turkey was added to the Top Value Model Portfolio at the end of April 2005.

During the last eight years and one month, the MSCI Turkey TR Index advanced from $125 to $350, a compound annual return of 13.6 % versus 10.8 % for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Even though Turkey was not extremely overvalued based on its absolute valuation, the relative and historic benchmark comparisons — mainly it’s relative current (1.34), historic (1.32) and relative historic (1.47) Price/Dividend ratios — triggered the signal.

After having sold Turkey, the Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine markets — Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan — at equal weights. According to our performance ratings, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI Developed Markets Index at the end of June 2013, based on selected asset and earnings valuation measures:

keppler chart

Based on our valuation and return analyses, the Emerging Markets are now undervalued by 20.7 % versus the Developed Markets, while the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 24.1 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by a whopping 40.1 % compared with the MSCI World Index of the Developed Markets.

This bodes well with regard to potential outperformance of Emerging Markets in general and our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular over the next three to five years.

Michael Keppler New York, July 16, 2013

This update suggests that this is a good time to take profits on over weighting of developed market shares and to re calibrate one’s portfolio to an over weighting of emerging market shares.

keppler chart

keppler chart

Subscribers to our Multi Currency report can access the entire 52 page emerging market value update at the password protected site.  Click here.

Learn how to obtain the password that accesses Keppler’s 52 page report here.

Remember that the overall market value is just one of many filters we should use when we review value. The seven steps we use in our reviews include:

#1: Are the shares traded in a good value market?

#2: Does the share trade at fair Price to Earnings and Price to Cash Flow ratios?

#3: Does the share pay a good value dividend?

#4: Do the share have a good value relative to their previous price?

#5: Does the company have rising earnings?

#6: Has the share price been rising?

#7: Is the company’s management good and is their product or service line in a wave of the future?

Michael Keppler also reminds investors not to misinterpret the investment analysis implicit in the Country Selection Strategy.  A country is BUY-rated based on the valuation levels reflected in the MSCI benchmark index of country.  A BUY rating therefore does NOT imply that any stock in that country would be considered an attractive investment.

To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy, it is necessary to construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the overall portfolio. It is not appropriate to instruct a stockbroker to simply to select stocks in the BUY rated countries.

Gary

Learn How to Write to Say or to Sell

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

gary-scott-image

Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the place I have lived.  Everywhere I have been… too numerous to share here, I have been able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from writing.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Sometimes Hugh and I get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like High are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

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David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund . 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.