Investing in Water IV


Investing in water offers extra benefits (finally) now.

Seche-plant

Turn waste into electricity.   See below how Seche Environnement does.

I am finally bullish on equity markets and have been waiting for  this moment for over a dozen years.  Hallelujah!

Here is why and how 44 years of experience pays off.

I first began offering investment ideas in the mid 1960s.  Had an investor started following the market in 1960, by 1966 he… or she, might have thought that it would climb forever.  This chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1960 to 1980 from stockchart.com shows why one might have been enthused.

I was.

stockcharts.com dow

(click on charts to enlarge)

In 1966 equity markets revealed their cyclic nature to beginners like me and nearly wiped me out.  Thank God the emerging markets emerged because for the next 15 years the Dow actually dropped.

Investors younger than I were probably fooled again if they began investing in the 1980s.

tockcharts.com dow

The Dow just rose… and rose and rose until investors learned the second word in equity markets behind “boom” which is “bust”.   This stockchart.com chart above of the Dow from 1980 to 2000 shows how badly the DJI performed .

The crash of 1999 has been followed by 13 years of terrible ups and downs in the Dow and other equity markets as well.

tockcharts.com dow

From stockchart.com the Dow from the year 2000 to now.

By 1990, I had learned a lot. Equity markets move up in down in cycles of approximately 15 to 20 years.  We can see this trend since the 1900s in this chart.

Dow Charts

This history suggests that equity markets have been in the bear cycle for almost 14 years and are now approaching their darkest hour.

But even in the bear… opportunity exists.

For example, in 2006, working with Jyske Bank in Copenhagen we created five portfolios for educational purposes.  One of the five multi currency portfolios was the Asian Emerging Multi Currency Portfolio. The portfolio started with a $100,000 investment and a $200,000 loan in Japanese yen (more on the loans in a moment).

In the first year (2006) this portfolio rose 114.16%. Then we made the five changes mentioned (two funds dropped and three added). In 2007 this portfolio rose 122.62%.

Then we did even better!  In 2007 we created (with Jyske) a Green Portfolio consisted of six shares.

This Green Portfolio rose 266.30% in one year!

Yet due to the many years of experience I knew this was a short term bull phase of a bear market so in late 2007 we began to unload.

In early August 2007…well before the 2008 market crash… our study of the market began to show increased risk.   We sent a first warning that said:  “We have enjoyed two years of enormous growth.  Periods of high growth are normally followed by periods of low growth.”

August 17, 2007 another message sent to our readers said: “The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978).  If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.”

On September 21, 2007, another message read: “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party.”

A October 15, 2007 message reviewed how leveraged investments rise and fell faster than investments without leverage.

The message on Oct 26, 2007 was it was entitled “Leveraged Investments Gone”. Just before markets started to head south this lesson warned: “I have had only about 10% of my portfolio leveraged. Compare this to 200% for the Green Portfolio (which is up 265% this year). Now I have none.
So a lot of my portfolio investments are basically in a multi currency portfolio of bonds…mostly in pounds, Swedish and Danish kroner. The equities I hold are mainly in Europe and I do not leverage equities…especially after markets have risen so much. Periods of high returns are normally followed by periods of low returns. These facts, plus my belief that numerous economic woes are rising and my recollection of Oct 1987 leave me wanting to reduce risk in my equity portfolio. So now I have eliminated all my leverage.”

The next message warned again: “Okay it’s time to turn the burner down.”

A November 8, 2007 Black Friday message was our seventh warning and saved many investors because it reviewed  all the warnings above again and more.

We try to always stay ahead of the curve so now I am announcing the next global bull equity market.  I have been waiting and watching and I am bullish on markets again. Hallaluyah!

There are several reasons why I am increasing our equity position now.  This could be a time of extreme riches… especially for those who enter ahead of the rush and let me be clear… there is plenty of time. In fact another bear trap is likely because we may only be near the darkest hour.

If so we would rather be early than sorry.  This is the time when smart investors are buying for the long hold.  They and I (and perhaps you) will be selling for huge profits when the thundering herd catches on.

There are numerous other reasons why I am bullish now.  We’ll see them in future messages. For now we are looking at a series of  equities that are involed in water purification and were in the Green Portfolio that did so well.

This message views the French company Séché Environnement SA.

water share chart

Finance.yahoo.com describes the company in a profile that says:

Séché Environnement SA provides waste treatment services for hazardous and non-hazardous wastes primarily in France. It operates waste treatment and recovery facilities, as well as develops tools to produce energy from waste. The company also collects and sorts various types of waste, including household and industrial hazardous and non-hazardous. In addition, it provides tailored services comprising eco-logistic, sorting/grouping, comprehensive industrial waste management, industrial effluents management, household waste management, and site decontamination/rehabilitation services.  The company primarily serves industrial clients and local authorities. Séché Environnement SA was founded in 1985 and is based in Change, France.

I’ll be watching Seche closely because this share has not recovered from the 2008 debacle as so many equities did.  My focus will look for value. Is something wrong with Seche or is the sector just discouraged about France… about environmental problems and about the euro?   If the problem is the latter… then Seche shares would have five fundmentals that can cause these shares to recover.

Fundamental #1:  Pessimistic mood about France and the EU.

Fundamental #2:  Increased demand for clean water.

Fundamental #3:  An oversold Euro.

Fundamental #4:  An undervalued environmental sector.

Fundamental #5::  An overall recovery of equity markets we have reviewed in this message.

This message is not a suggestion to rush into Seche Environnement.  One of the golden rules of investing is to invest in good value shares with rising prices… rising earnings and growing market attention.  Seche does not appear to fit that description now.

However the five fundamentals above suggest that Seche could see an explosive recovery which would be nice to enjoy as an investor… gaining profits in a company that is helping the environment.

Seche Environnement is traded OTC in the USA as symbol SECVY.

Shares are traded on the Turquoise Exchange as Seche Environnement SA symbol SCHP:TQ

TQ is the symbol for the Turquoise Exchange that is now majority owned by the London Stock Exchange and twelve leading investment banks.

The shares trade on the French Securities Market (code FP) as symbol SCHP.

This exchange was established to engender greater competition in the secondary trading of European equities,

Water has a demand we know will grow.  Equity markets will have a next up curve is a given also.  Adding these two deeply natural and fundamental forces to the good value created by the darkest hour can create truly extraordinary profits.

Gary

Go to Part Five of the “Investing in Water” Report – Click here

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

Go to Part Five of the “Investing in Water” Report – Click here

Read Seche’s Finance.yahoo’s profile

See Seche’s recovery solutions

See Seche’s eco-logistics

See more on Seche’s services

See Seche’s specific knowhow


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