Multi Currency Volatility Survival Tactic


Here is a multi currency volatility survival tactic.

Do what you love… have fun.  The money will come.

Viewing summer from the front porch of our original North Carolina farm houses kind of exemplifies the importance of adaptation and evolution in investing.

glenn-stirling

Dr. Glenn Stirling and I lunch at Merrily Farms… Little Horse Creek.

While most people fret over the potential of another recession and slowing growing economy,  Merri and I are ramping up expansion plans.

We are working with Glenn Stirling DC to develop a flow of low cost, natural health and longevity ideas that help our readers. We are planning tours in Ecuador and Cuba. Glenn has already begun his research and first trips to Cotacachi and Cuba.  He stopped by the farm last week, driving from Calgary, Alberto to Florida so we could review his current trip back to Ecuador.

We see the global economic changes as a a global social-business restructuring that favors small international micro businesses and providing enormous opportunity to pioneers in this field. 

Since the beginning of the 2000s, we have echoed the words of futurist, Ian Pierson, that “a company’s value is its ideas, less it size and experience”. 

And August 5th, 2001 article at msnbc.msn.com entitled “How Lego and other brands grab the news spotlight” by By Martin Lindstrom highlights a reality in this idea.  Here are excerpts: These companies hijack big events, make their brands the story.

On Aug. 5, NASA’s Juno spacecraft began its five-year journey to the planet Jupiter. Not generally known to the broader public, there are three “crew members” aboard, and they’ve all signed up for the duration of the trip. These “crew members” are in fact Lego representations of the Roman god Jupiter, his wife Juno, and Galileo Galilei, the Renaissance astronomer who made many important discoveries about our solar system.

The well-planned mission is part of Lego’s “Bricks in Space” program (not to be confused with “Muppets In Space”). A long-standing partnership between the Lego company and NASA has resulted in every space mission carrying numerous Lego sets onboard.

Similarly, on the same day evacuated victims of tornado and flood were able to return to assess their damage, Procter & Gamble installed hundreds of washing machines replete with truckloads of Tide washing powder to help with the cleanup.

This is more than simple product placement.

A few companies have become expert at using these resources and hijacking the news, making their brand the story. With the steady increase in alternative channels, the opportunities have never been greater.

So if hijacking the news can be so very powerful, how come hundreds of great opportunities consistently pass brands by? It obviously has little to do with the cost factor, given the fact that Lego, Nike, and P&G’s assertive actions have paid off handsomely.

Capitalizing on the immediate is a familiar concept to anyone younger than twenty something. They have no problem with turning ideas into action in a matter of minutes. They don’t bat an eyelid at instant celebrity. Theirs is a universe where dropouts become billionaires and startup software companies dominate the market in a few short months. Corporations, on the other hand, are far more circumspect. Their wheels turn so much slower.

So, the question that remains is how have some companies managed to gear up their internal machine to swoop in and perform successful brand hijacks, while the majority don’t get a look in? Perhaps the answer can be found in the wisdom of sixth century military strategist, Sun Tzu. He wrote, “Every battle is won before it is fought.” In other words, you need to win a war before it has begun.

P&G have learned that the public expects the largest consumer packaged goods company to help society, and as a result they have a strategy in place for disasters before they actually happen. Their strategy can be activated in an instant.  See a link to the entire article at the end of this message.

This is the great advantage of  a  micro businesses… the ability to quickly adapt.

How can one decide though when to shift?

A subscriber to our online Self Publishing Course sent this comment:  Dear Gary,  I have worked my way through Lesson Three and was most taken by your comment that one should embrace those of like mind and repel the rest– repel is I think a strong word, but the principle is right. I use the term “Disengage.”

I am a retired trial attorney, free at last; and over the past three years have had the time to sip old literary wines: Euripides, Plato, Seneca etc, and am amazed again how the answers to a good life have been written thousands of years ago. It is my ambition to write a self-help book in which I intend to offer a practice conceived in my studies of Greek and Roman philosophy and some 30 years in Japanese, Korean and Theravada Buddhist monasteries.

As I write this book I strive always for the right voice, realizing, of course, that the voice is right, so long as it is true, well tempered– as a sword is well tempered– and your own.

The perfection of voice of course is the pursuit of a life time.  However, I noticed for a few chapters that a voice far less than perfect because it seemed that I was diluting the message simply to reach a larger audience. I rewrote the opening chapters to appeal to those whom I could help and with whom the practice I offer might resonate.  Your message is well taken. Publish to those whose voice is in harmony with your own.  Thanks

My reply shows how to decide when a shift in your business and investing is right for you.  You are on the right track.  One way I see it in terms of gears. A little fast gear cannot mesh with a big slow gear.  All that will happen if the speeds are not synchronized is a clash.

Someone said to me once that if you speak to someone at one level over their understanding … they think you are a great teacher.  If you speak two levels over they think you are a genius. If you speak three levels over… they will try to kill you.

Follow your heart and it will lead you exactly where you are meant to be!

This has unsettled Merri and me several times when we strove hard to get into some position where everything was perfect and then somehow after we were there we began to feel… we had to move on.  This is so hard sometimes… but really easy when you believe your heart.

This generally happens every seven years or so.  See why at
https://www.garyascott.com/2011/01/17/11884.html

I wrote about this and after we had been in Ecuador after 14 years there.
https://www.garyascott.com/2009/02/19/3929.html

Our heart feels the pull first… then we get messages… little clues. If we do not ignore them… they’ll lead us into a most pleasant place.  So be true to those feelings when you write and you’ll create the perfect message… for you and for all of those who need what you have to share… perfect harmony.

Comfort is one of the most important aspects of successful investing. If we make investments not in keeping with our nature, we will not be comfortable.  Without comfort, we are more likely to second guess and screw up. Restlessness and worry reduce the joy of affluence and also can reduce investing effectiveness as well.

All of us need to invest in things and do business that we feel is right… that is enjoyable.

For example when Merri and I moved out here to our farm, many of our friends thought we were nuts.  Not only has country living added joy to our life, it is probably the best investment we ever made.  Every year, the move feels more correct, especially at this time of the year when we have scenes that Glenn shot like this… of summer richness… warm days and cool night around the farm.

merrily farms

Living deep in the Blue Ridge might not seem like a  logical place to learn about international investing, but being in nature like this gives me so much added perspective and the ability to quietly think and contemplate without interference.

merrily farms

Shot of creek and..

merrily farms

foot bridge.

I learn more about change and adaption by contemplating the richness and purpose of every season in the calm steadiness of the forest than reading a day’s worth of financial reports…especially in hectic times of turmoil…

The trees say, “Who cares if the stock market is down.  “It’s summer.  Time to enjoy nature’s richness!”

Lance Armstrong summed this idea up in a Time magazine article when asked about who to listen to about what to do in life when he said: “The important thing is to go around (collect data-get information). Then you really start to weigh your options. Which one feels right? It may not be the right decision, but it’s what makes you feel right.”

This understanding is vital in life, investing and business.

Know yourself.

Know that ultimately you must make decisions for yourself.  Know that you can’t know everything. Know that not every decision will be right in that it brings a profit, but also know that if each investment you make whether in time, money or energy feels right for you, you are likely to improve your odds of success.

Yesterday’s message looked at an idea that can help answer the question, “Who am I?”  This is complicated but easier to understand when we realize that most people fall into one of six categories:

#1: Innovators

#2: Early Adapters

#3: Early Majority

#4: Late Majority

#5: Deliberate Skeptical Mass

#6: Laggards

(I advise everyone to read and study all of Malcolm Gladwell’s books…these genius ideas are from The Tipping Point.)

To understand this better let’s look at a study of a “diffusion model” from an analysis of the spread of hybrid seed corn introduced in Greene County Iowa in the 1930s. The hybrid seed which was superior in every way to the commonly used seed was first introduced in 1928.

Of the 259 farmers only a couple planted the seed the first year and through 1933.

In 1934 16 used the seed.

In 1935 21 more, then 36 more and in 1938 the number increased by 61.

The years after 46, 36, 14 and then 3 started using the seed. In 1941 all but two farmers were using the seed.

Of the 259, the innovators were the first handful that began.

The small numbers that then jumped on the band wagon from 1929 to 1933 were the early adapters.

The early and late majority began using the seed in 1936 to 1938.

The late and skeptical mass did not try it until after the most respected farmers had proven its worth.

The laggards never did make the shift or waited till much later.

This diffusion is quite typical of all things. One could study the use of faxes, cell phones, computers, apps, etc. and see a similar diffusion.

What type are you? The type is not important. None is better than another.

Knowing what you are is the key because each category has a way of investing that can succeed if it is true to itself.

Suit yourself if you really want success…and then be willing to adapt to change in a way that feels right for you.

Charles Darwin expressed great wisdom when he said, “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

Whether you are an early adapter who invests now while the market is falling in alternative investments, or a laggard who holds back his or her cash and waits…do what feels right to you….that’s the important thing.

Stick to the basics.  Always look for good value. Do not let fear OR greed tempt you to do something that does not feel right to you just because everyone else does.  Remember truth is not created by the continuous repetition of an error.  The majority of investors and businesses that start in most markets are wrong most of the time so you cannot depend on following the masses.

If everyone seems panicked and is selling, but it feels right for you to buy…and you have value reason for doing so…and that makes sense to you…then, do it!  Likewise if the market is screaming up and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon..yet you have reasons that makes sense to you to sell…do it.

Know yourself.   Do what feels right for you.  Always seek good value.  This is a formula that will rarely lose.

Until next message, may your feeling right never be left behind.

Gary

Here are numerous ways hopefully we can help you adapt.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

How Lego and other brands grab the news spotlight