Gary Scott Questions & Answers


Here are the Gary Scott Saturday Questions and Answers.

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Gary Scott speaking at European seminar on international investing.

Here are the Questions for today:

1: Question about the falling US dollar.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.

#3: Questions about the euro.

#4: Comments about government workers.

#5: Question on Ecuador’s offer of residence to the head of Wikileaks.

ecuador-roses

Don’t forget to order Ecuador Christmas Roses

#1: Question about the falling US dollar. Gary you keep making the statement [as the dollar falls] I keep reading every day about the dollar going up. Just wondering and ‘rwhy not be a little more positive about the U.S. Dollar and truthful, there are some pretty sound minds that believe it may rebound and if you’re that negative about it why all the assets in the U.S.?

My reply:

The dollar going up? These charts from Yahoo show…
dollar chart

that the US dollar has fallen from .85 to .75 euro over the past four years.

It has fallen even more versus the Japanese yen.

dollar chart

The dollar has even collapsed against emerging currencies like the Brazilian real.

dollar chart

Since I began writing about global investing 43 years ago, there have always been some pretty good minds who have argued that the dollar will rise. There have been short term trends (such as 1980 to 1985) but here is the long term reality shown in a chart from Grandfather.com. The dollar has been going… down… down…. down.

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In the past dozen years I have posted over 3,000 articles at my website at least a tenth of them about the falling US dollar.

Yet I just finished a report “Investing in Risk”.  Risk on what is good about investing the USA and why Merri and I love the USA.   However I do not confuse my love for the USA and Ecuador with my investments in currencies.  The US dollar is the currency of the USA and Ecuador but not my choice for investing.

My overall investment portfolio is short the US $…the only US $ investments that I have are in US and Ecuador real estate which I view as a separate currency that will rise as the US dollar falls.

If you would like these answers please start reading as you might get a better understanding of why we should expect the US dollar to fall but why investments in the US (especially made with borrowed dollars) offer great potential.

A shortcut to all the searching in my site is to order my report “Borrow Low-Deposit High” . Click here to learn more about the report.

Currently we also include the “Investing in Risk” report (a $49 value) free.

Many investors who love America have been fooled by the “Concept Conversion Trick”. I have warned against this since the 1970s. See why at the “Concept Conversion Trick” page of my International Investing basics.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.  This comment to last week’s Q & A about TSA came from a reader in Arizona. Hi! I live in Arizona. When I’ve flown to Ecuador, I’ve gone through Los Angeles or Houston. Tijuana has lots of flights to Costa Rica, which is a hub for Central and South America, as Panama is. I can get to San Diego in the same time I can get to L.A. by car. I won’t be going to Ecuador for a while again, but if the situation doesn’t change, I’m thinking about driving to San Diego, crossing the border on foot, and flying from Tijuana. I would go through U.S. Customs at the Tijuana border on foot on the way back. And I wouldn’t have to leave L.A. in the middle of the night. I see an international travel niche for Tijuana!

My comments: One can also travel by boat to the Bahamas or drive to Canada (regretfully Canada has no direct flights to Ecuador) and get a direct flight to Mexico, Costa Rica, Columbia, Panama.  Soon I expect we’ll also be able to boat to Cuba and once this happens we might see an increase in Havana-Quito flights!  But watch out. Many years ago, we lost a number of our Ecuadorian friends when a Russian built aircraft leaving Quito and bound for Havana crashed on takeoff in Quito, but hopefully a better airline with better planes will be available. Perhaps Quantas will fly some of its Airbus A380s from there.

Another Reader wrote this: For TSA-free travel, a “travel co-op” could purchase ( or lease ) passenger jets and fly out of FBO terminals security-check-free. People who fly in private jets are subject only to US Customs inspections & only on entry to the USA. Private jet passengers are never subjected to security searches. No bureaucrat would be that stupid. Just a thought.

My comments: I love and looked into the ideas of using multiple jet ownership, private jet service offering jet cards or jet taxis.

Flyers can tailor their itinerary and choose nearby airports and enjoy flying from FBOS when they choose to fly not based on the airlines schedule. Merri and I have made a couple of flights like this.  What a way to go!

This was a highly touted idea a few years ago when the VLJ (very light jet) was introduced. These smaller jets ring flight costs down… down…. down.

There were two big innovators with a lot of hype.  Eclipse Aviation claimed to have 2,500 Eclipse 500 aircraft on order and Adam Aircraft said they had an order backlog of 282 of its Adam A700 VLJ.

Airlines such as Florida-based air taxi company, DayJet, were forming based around using the VLJs and touting a new way to fly.

Regretably all three companies went bust.

Several airlines now produce VLJs such as Cessna’s  Mustang and Embraer’s Phenom 100 calling them very light personal jets or introductory class jets.  The jets carry four passengers and have a maximum range of about three hours.

Jet taxi services offer improved efficiency.  Blink Airlines for example which flies from London claims you arrive 15 minutes before you take off by avoiding check-in, inefficient security procedures, and delays reclaiming baggage.  They also offer multiple city visits in a day. Their ads says “Start in London, fly to Paris, travel on to Stuttgart and drop into Antwerp on the way home – such journeys are usually impossible if you travel with commercial airlines. With Blink, the possibilities are endless.”

Plus Blink claims to be competitive with business class travel when four people fly in their VLJs.

However they are still really expensive… about $4,000 an hour for the jet cards and private jet travel and the VLJs do not work for most overseas travel.  This is a really nice  option but limited and pretty pricey and I suspect most readers feel the same as well.

#3: Questions about the euro. Gary, hope you are well, enjoying the great daily updates as usual. As a resident of Ireland and in this crisis period, how do you see the euro performing? The greatest Euro sceptics are saying the euro would not last 20 years. Should Portugal, Spain follow suit and request help, is the euro doomed? Is it time to move your money and if so where? $ and £ look just as risky.

My reply: This is a million (trillion actually) dollar question.  The idea of the euro is rooted in Serajevo when on 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were shot dead by Gavrilo Princip, one of a group of six Bosnian Serb assassins who were intent on breaking off Austria-Hungary’s south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia.

That event was the spark that caused European tensions to explode into WWI.

You can enjoy a great read and understand the tensions that led to WWI and how WWI led to WWII  better reading Ken Follett’s new book Fall of Giants.

After those wars… the world was terrified that WWIII could follow, so the idea of uniting Europe began.  The euro and EU traces its origins from the original effort of some unification with the European Coal and Steel Community formed between six countries in 1951 and the Treaty of Rome formed in 1957 by the same states.

When I first started investing in and writing about multi currency investing… the formula was simple. Invest in the currencies where the governments were employing economic sanity… such as Germany and Japan.  Bet against the US dollar because the US government continued to spend more than it earned.

Then other politicians learned bad habits from the US. Germany went into debt buying East Germany and partnered up with other insane spenders gave up the DMark and joined the euro. Japan became on the the biggest spenders of all.  Yet these governments have not been as bad as Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece.

Understanding global currency markets is so complex that unless it is one’s daily business the only way to figure out what is what is to employ the most simple, basic equations to these most complex questions.

So here is a simple view that I take.

First, see the tension. If a government has too much debt… it creates money by printing… which is inflationary. Inflation in a currency normally causes the currency to fall versus currencies in countries without so much debt. This makes goods from outside the debt ridden country more expensive.

The euro however allows overspending highly indebted nations in Europe called the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – plus we need now to add Ireland) to have a currency (the euro) that is stronger than deserved.

The counterpoint is WWI and WWII. Plus now the difficulty of undoing the euro would be huge (though I do not think it to be as hard as many believe).

One simple measure to watch is budget balance as a percent of GDP.  The US is currently -9%,  Japan -7.6% and the euro area -6.4%.

This means long term, there is a pressure for the yen to fall versus the euro and the US dollar to fall versus both currencies.

However then look at the budget balance of  the nations who use the euro. Germany is -3.7%, France -7%, Belgium, -5.7%, Austria, -5.1%, Netherlands -5.7%, Italy, -5%, Greece, -9.1%, Spain -9.7%.  It is predicted that Ireland budget deficit could rise to -24%.

So the tension is internal to the euro and overall… from this comparison the euro is in better shape than the USA and Japan.

Ireland will announce its budget December 7, 2010 and I expect the euro to survive. However during the time it takes for the EU to sort out this mess, I also expect the euro to be volatile. So short term the euro will be bouncy… long term could be stronger than the dollar and yen.

I expect all three currencies to fall versus emerging currencies and personally have a highly diversified portfolio of currencies with an over weight in emerging market currencies.

The WisdomTree Emerging Market Debt Fund is one way to get managed diversification in these currencies.

There are many forces that could cause terror in the market including a potential Korean war, China & Russia abandoning the US dollar, Ireland’s budget falling apart, Spain needing a bailout, inflation hitting the US. Unemployment rising in the US and Western Europe, and who knows what impact the leaks at Wikileaks will create.

Global markets have been weakening throughout November.

wisdomtree chart

The symbol for the Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund is ELD.  This is an actively managed ETF.  See more on this ETF in an upcoming message.  The six month chart above from Bloomberg.com shows how this fund reflects volatility in currency markst but despite its fall (the fund quadrupled in price in a short time then corrected) its price has almost doubled in six months.

#4: Comments on government workers. Gary I work for the “gov’ment,” and I do not make the kind of wages you speak of where we make more than the private sector.  On the contrary!  I live and work in Alaska, for the State of Alaska, and I can PROMISE you that State workers in Alaska do NOT make more than the private sector, overall.  I made the trade-off for security,  because my background IS from the private sector.  I worked for Airline after Airline that went belly up, all because the government decided to remove their control and hand us the airline demise of “DEREGULATION.”  With that came the failed airline industry….one after another and people losing their jobs…they should have stayed regulated, the gov’t bailed on us….with their control there would have been more stability…  trickle down Reagan-nomics has proved to be a failed policy, where only the RICH GET RICHER and the poor get poorer….as we have proof of this after 8 years of GWBUSH and the evil Cheney…That party clearly caused the great recession….in my humble opinion, they and their stupid wars….. I would venture to say that big oil controls the gov’t not the other way around… …

So when you write your articles, please make it clear that not ALL GOV’T workers make more than the private sector…because there are people out there who will believe anything they read…. And not catch that you even said federal…. you made it sound like ALL gov’t workers make more money….which is so untrue..

We State workers lost all of our sick leave a long time ago, plus, free medical is no longer given out to retirees and neither is a defined retirement….Alaska only gives out what  you save after five years commitment along with their match up to a small percentage….plus, because state workers do not pay in to social security but in to a different account, we risk losing it as we did in the downturn….so any money we paid in to social security from all the years before we went to work for the state, guess what, we are penalized and do not get to collect on…. Also, the State of Alaska is second from the bottom in the USA for paying unemployment benefits….you pay in to it, you collect a pittance if out of work..(compared to other States – we compare to Alabama! )

I think you are a very unique individual and I so appreciate your writing, for the most part.   You cannot please all of the people all of the time, but you do a pretty good job of it.

Thank you

My reply: Oops. Just after I wrote this article on how much Federal government workers were paid I read this in the New York Times: President Obama to Announce a Pay Freeze for Most Federal Workers  – President Obama plans to announce a pay freeze for most federal workers later Monday morning, according to an administration official, the latest White House move intended to demonstrate concern over deficit spending.

The president’s announcement will effectively wipe out plans for a 1.4 percent across-the-board raise for most of the 2.1 million federal government employees in 2011. The president has frozen the salaries of his own top White House staff members since taking office 22 months ago.

Yikes, I hope my article did not cause this. Seriously… this reader has a point I am all toowell aware of.  State, city and county government employees do not have government like deals.

I know this because my dad grew up in the depression and was fanatical about job security.  He therefore worked his entire life after WWII for the City of Portland, making less than private sector.  That worked for him and when the zoo was turned over the the Zoological society, the city still had a job for him as a parks foreman.  He never made a lot of money… but back in those days the insurance… the sick days… the vacation and the steadiness were all good.   Today it is different.  Dad is gone and my mom is beginning to suffer as the City loses its ability to fill obligations and commitments to its workers.  Lucky she has Merri, our daughter, my sister and me to make sure she remains in comfort  as she nears 90! (Good goin’ mom!).

Reader’s Question #5: Would you comment on Ecuador’s offer to the head of Wikileaks.

The reader sent me this note: November 29 Associated Press Article entitled “Ecuador offers a home for founder” By GONZALO SOLANO

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) – If WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange needs a home, Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister says this Andean nation is happy to provide one.

The 39-year-old Australian, who has incensed and embarrassed Washington with the release by his online whistle-blowing organization of hundreds of sensitive diplomatic cables, had sought residency and a work permit in Sweden.

But after the release by WikiLeaks beginning in late July of thousands of sensitive documents from the Iraq and Afghan wars, a Swedish court ordered him detained for questioning on sexual assault allegations—claims Assange denies and calls part of a smear campaign.

Assange, who keeps his whereabouts secret and moves around a lot, could also face legal complications at home. Australia’s attorney general said Monday that it was studying whether he’d broken any laws there.

In contrast to the potential hostility from U.S. allies, leftist-run Ecuador provided Assange with an invitation Monday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas said in audio posted online by the Ecuador Inmediato news site that “We are open to giving him residence in Ecuador, without any kind of trouble and without any kind of conditions.”

“We think it would be important not only to converse with him but to listen to him,” Lucas added, saying Ecuador wanted to invite Assange to “freely expound” and see what it’s like in “friendly countries”.

He praised people like Assange “Who are constantly investigating and trying to get light out of the dark corners of (state) information”.

Lucas said Ecuador’s government was “very concerned” by revelations that U.S. diplomats have been involved in spying in the first of the more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables and directives that WikiLeaks has begun to release.

WikLeaks says it has 1,621 cables that originated in the U.S. Embassy in Quito.

Their contents have not yet been disclosed.

Ecuador expelled two U.S. diplomats in early 2009, accusing one of directing CIA operations in Ecuador and another of interferring in police affairs.

The government continues close counternarcotics cooperation with the United States, but a year ago President Rafael Correa, a U.S.-educated economist, refused to renew the lease on what had been Washington’s only base for counternarcotics flights in South America, the Manta airfield.

He said that if Washington would grant Ecuador an air base in Florida, he’d be happy to host U.S. flight operations.

My reply: I checked on this and learned that Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas is considered a loose cannon… who is out of favor in the government and may have said this to try and grab attention.  I am told that President Correa has a good realtionship with the US Ambassador and also Hilary Clinton so this sounds more like political theatrics than anything substantial.

As to Wikileaks… I have conflicting feelings but do believe this idea will change politics as we know them.  Governments have encouraged whistle blowers in private industry so why as voters should we not be entited to them as well?  Others who wish to harm us can be secretive but perhaps this will help those of us who believe in open democracy to find a way to defend ourselves and without trampling rights under the guise of “national security”.  I hope so.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary



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