Micro Business & Global Investing Weather Dots


Connecting micro business weather dots can help you earn extra income… in a micro business or global investment.

Investments and/or businesses in climate change can be profitable and do good for the world.

What do these beans in the jar…

weather-change

have to do with…

weather-change

these wild turkeys I photoed in our front yard on a foggy August morn?

weather-change

That fog… and the beans predict a hard Blue Ridge winter… again… after America’s hottest summer on record.

Such weather is a problem and problems create opportunity.    Weather change may be…  one huge problem.

Blue Ridge lore suggests that we can predict the weather in numerous ways.  Watching for early morning fogs in August indicate the number of snows. A heavy fog indicates a heavy snow, and a light one, a mild snow. We have many bean counters up here in the mountains and they are saying that they have an extraordinary number of beans this August.  Or… starting building the wood pile… brrrr!

Other local weather predictions include:

* Watching how high or how low the hornets build their nests; High means a mild winter and low, a bad winter. Hornets nests seem to be very, very low this year as I and our hound dog Ma recently discovered when I bumped into a nest built on the face of this patio, while mowing the lawn. Ouch!

italian-villa

* Watching the thickness of spider webs; When it’s going to be a bad winter, there will be an abundance of spider webs.

* Looking at the thickness of bark on the trees; If the bark is thick and gnarly, it is going to be a bad winter.

* If the foliage on the trees is thick and hangs on long in the fall, it’s going to be a hard winter.  (Join us this fall for the leaf change at our International investing and business seminar to see).

* If the mast crop (hickory nuts, acorns, etc.) is particularly heavy, it is going to be a hard winter.

* If corn husks are thick, it will be a bad winter.

* If squirrels are busier than usual gathering nuts without chattering, it’s going to be a bad winter.

There is a lot of wisdom in this ancient folklore.  However some prefer a more scientific exploration. If so, take a look at the article

“The Causes of Global Warming:from The Quaker Economist.

Here are excerpts from this article (a link to the entire article is below): This is a brief note on how to evaluate the causes of global warming, without the assistance of super-computers running advanced three-dimensional geophysical models of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics.

My goal in this essay is to show a simple way to evaluate the major hypothetical causes of global warming, such as solar sunspot activity and greenhouse gases produced by the use of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, and natural gas).

Figure 1 shows the trend in global mean temperatures, from the mid-18th century to the present. The data come from the well-respected Climate Prediction Unit of the University of East Anglia. The curve clearly shows fluctuating global temperatures, culminating in a sustained rise in global mean temperature from about 1980 to 2006, with a dip in 2007.

).

One contributing cause of changes in global mean temperature is fluctuations in solar activity, which change not only the total amount of radiant energy received on earth, but also the amount of cosmic radiation absorbed by the atmosphere. The numbers of sunspots visible on the surface of the sun is a useful proxy for solar activity of all kinds. Sunspots follow a somewhat irregular eleven-year cycle that has been in place with varying amplitude for three centuries. Figure 2 shows annual midyear sunspot numbers, as reported by the Royal Observatory of Belgium, after smoothing with an eleven-year trailing average. The eleven-year solar cycle is only faintly visible in this smoothed data, but long-term fluctuations in overall solar activity are clearly visible.

The “anthropogenic hypothesis” of global warming is that the burning of fossil fuels by humanity has released enough greenhouse gases of various types (especially carbon dioxide and methane) into the atmosphere as to have caused a rise in global mean temperatures.

If we truncate the data at 1985, i.e. before global warming began in earnest, then fossil fuel consumption has an influence on global temperature that is about twice as strong as solar activity. If, however, we include all the data from 1850 through 2007, then the influence of fossil fuel consumption is almost three times stronger than solar activity, though the latter remains a powerful influence. (Bold is mine).

The relationship between fossil fuel consumption and global mean temperature is strongest when the fossil fuel series is lagged behind temperature by 25 years.

The two curves are shown in Figure 4. The red curve (fossil fuel consumption) has been shifted to the right by 25 years, so that one can see how the rise in temperatures could plausibly have been caused by the increase in fossil fuel use 25 years earlier.

A comparison of Figures 2 and 4 raises some immediate questions: Which is the cause of global warming, solar activity or fossil fuels?

Figure 5 shows how well the two causes acting together predict annual global mean temperatures. The red curve of predicted temperatures based on:

1.    solar activity,
2.    fossil fuel consumption, and
3.    the previous year’s temperature,

explains fully 87% of the variance in global mean temperatures over the time span 1850–2007. As statistical models go, that is an extremely good fit!

Figure 5: Actual global mean temperatures (blue) and as recreated by an autoregressive statistical model (orange), using solar activity, fossil fuel consumption, and previous year’s global mean temperature.

“If nothing else were changed by warming, a doubling of carbon dioxide would ultimately lead to a temperature change of about 1.2 degrees C,” says atmospheric physicist Gerard Roe of the University of Washington (quoted in Scientific American, October 2007). “In fact, because of internal processes within the climate system, such as changing snow cover, clouds and water vapor in the atmosphere, our best estimate is that the actual warming would be two to four times larger than that.” In other words, the earth may warm between 2.4 and 4.8 degrees C.

And therein lies the problem. Any increase of more than 1.5 degrees C may result in the mass extinction of up to a third of all biological species known to science. At this level of extinction, what will happen to the food chain that supports human existence? Worse, this is just one of the dire consequences envisioned in “State of the Science: Beyond the Worst Case Climate Change Scenario” (Scientific American, November 2007). (Bold mine)

This suggests that global climate change has the potential of being a huge problem.  This is something many of us already already believe.  This is why we have been promoting green investments at this site for almost a decade.  

I am in Copenhagen this week speaking for Jyske Bank and one of the other speakers is Bjorn Lomborg known as the “Skeptical Environmentalist.”

Lomborg is a Danish author, academic, and environmental writer. He is an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Centre and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen.  I have spoken with him at one seminar before and his ideas are worth the trip across the Atlantic.

He became internationally known for his best-selling and controversial book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”.

In 2002, Lomborg and the Environmental Assessment Institute founded the Copenhagen Consensus, which seeks to establish priorities for advancing global welfare using methodologies based on the theory of welfare economics. I look forward to hearing what he has to say.

What else can one do?

Our recent message “Rules of Wealth looked at the International Securities Exchange ISE and the numerous indexes it has created so investors can easily bet on ideas.

The ISE “Earth Wind & Fire Index” offers an alternative for hydrocarbon free investments.  This index provides a benchmark for investors interested in tracking companies actively involved in hydrocarbon-free based energy generation.

Here are the companies in the index and their weightings.

ise-wind&fire index

ise-wind&fire index

ise-wind&fire index

ise-wind&fire index

I have not found an ETF based on this index so investors would have to use the ISE options to invest in this idea.

There are many clean energy ETSs however.  Here are five of them.

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW): PBW tracks the WilderHill Clean Energy Index, a benchmark that tracks companies that focus on greener and generally renewable sources of energy and technologies that facilitate cleaner energy. It holds 53 securities and is heavily exposed to companies in the electrical equipment sector.

Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX): This ETF holds 30 securities and is heavily exposed to firms in the U.S., which make up 44% of the fund’s total assets. GEX is diversified among a variety of alternative power sources; its top holdings are Westas Wind Systems (9.5%) and solar giant First Solar (6.7%).

PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD): PBD consists of 88 securities and has nearly one-third of its exposure to U.S. firms, the largest single country allocation. Additionally, the fund is heavy on mid and small cap securities; just 14% of the assets are classified as large cap firms.

PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (PZD): PZD consists of 78 firms which focus on knowledge-based products or services that improve operation, performance, productivity, or efficiency, while reducing costs, inputs, energy consumption, waste, or pollution. PZD’s top holding is Schneider Electric (2.8%).

iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (ICLN): This iShares fund allocates its holdings to a wide variety of alternative energy sources. Besides solar and wind, the fund also invests in firms that produce biomass and ethanol and geothermal producers. The top sector is electrical equipment, which makes up about 53% of assets. Independent power producers make up nearly 25% of holdings.

What about Business Opportunity? Create a micro business from what you know.

If hydrocarbons are responsible for a majority of global warming and if global warming is half as serious as the Quaker Economist article above suggests, then hydrocarbon free energy will be a huge future wave.

Changing weather can affect us in almost every way… so the business opportunity comes in what you know.    Think about about how weather change will affect what you know.

Research the companies above in the ISE. See what they do. Look for opportunities based around what they do.  Climate change offers huge business potential. This is an area where there is profits and a world of good for us all.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

The Causes of Global Warming: Quaker Economist