Gain Time With Wisdom of the Masses


Each day when I complete my message, I ask myself, “Is there something here that is interesting… and useful that can help make our readers’ lives better?”

This is why you won’t read a lot of bad global news at our site.  Knowing all the terrible stuff in the world that we cannot do a thing about may be a favorite form of entertainment for the masses… but honestly… it is not very useful.   In fact this type of knowledge can be a burden and obstacle.

Plus once one becomes positive enough to overcome the morbid side of life… looking at dead bodies… pain and suffering doesn’t have much kick.   Most news is a waste of time… and time is the one resource we all have… but a resource that is also truly limited.

We live in a universe of unlimited abundance and wisdom.  Yet that infinite wisdom also uses time to make everything go.

We can save time helping one another which is why last week I started our Wisdom of the Masses Q & A. See how and why this wisdom of the masses works here.

Each Saturday will be the time we Mass Share… so I need your questions and… your answers.

Here are questions that came this last week.

Question:

Gary, My wife and I have been living in Cuenca for a month and really love it. I have 12k in a 401k back in the states.
I am 57 and could really use your wisdom on what to do with it.  Your insight would be greatly appreciated. George

Question:

Thank you for writing.  I’ve wired about 500k to Ecuador this year and I wanted to write off what I can.  With other funds, we bought two parcels of land out here in Vilcabamba and they are right next to each other.  My wife and I are very popular in the raw foods movement.  I was thinking to create a retreat center type business where people come to our land to relax, heal and learn about health.   We are in the process of building a 7 bedroom 7 bathroom guest house and this is where they would stay.  I think that there is a lot we can write-off and depreciate if we create a business out here. Additionally, next year we can earn foreign income and get that 87k tax break.  I don’t know how to structure this, do I create a US or Ecuadorian Business, etc…

Questions:

Hi Gary, you asked for it!

Your thoughts on the merits of collective wisdom were interesting and in my opinion right on the money.

I believe in the democracy as the best form of government. Direct democracy is for the most part not practical therefore I suppose representative democracy is second best.

In the USA there is considerable “interference” with the purity of this process. Your 1906 example of 800 people judging the weight of the oxen worked because each individual viewed the oxen personally. For US citizens to apply worthwhile collective wisdom in the operation of our country we must each receive similar, accurate information about issues on which we are to make decisions.

I have friends who get all their information from Fox News and have a considerably different view of the world than I do. Other friends get their information from MSNBC and have another view point.

It seems that sustaining all of our “freedoms” will depend on the primary freedom that a modern democracy relies on which is “freedom of the press”. This term should today be “freedom of the media”. Democracy requires a media that presents accurate information without the influence of their corporate owners, reporters, or others, and lets us develop our own opinions.

Today after years of unbridled consolidation, 90% of all US media (TV-Radio-Publishing-online-etc.) is owned by 5 giant entities. All of these five are interested in making money much more than presenting unbiased news.

My question to you is; Can our form of government long exist when our collective wisdom is constantly bombarded with information tainted with opinion which supports a prejudiced view point, instead of neutral, impartial reporting by journalists dedicated to the truth as they witness it or discover it through investigation?

Wayne

Question

I wish I had sufficient cashflow to finance my life without debt but alas that is not the case.  Sometimes debt can be beneficial?  I have a lot of real estate debt but I always make sure that I keep it in control.  In my financial statement I have a line item for my overall debt ratio.  37.8% at the moment.  I also make sure that my debt is for things that pay me.  Cash flowing real estate.  I insist on a minimum 20% cash on cash return, and usually make much more.

But here is my question.  The US government has a real debt problem which they will need to “solve”.  Probably with higher inflation.  So isn’t it beneficial for me to have the same “problem” so they can inflate away my debt too?  Note that I have no car or credit card  debt.

Trey

Question… Actually Comment.

Gary –

Re “The Wisdom of Crowds” – As with other pop-psych and pop-economics books, I had a lot of problems with this book (not least because it conflates a “crowd” with a “flock”. Also, the “wisdom” contradicts many of the points in your own living and investment strategies.

That said, I agree that a blog with the experiences – bad as well as good – of expats is a great idea. Don’t know if you follow Gringo Tree, but the reports of expats lasting 6 months or less before giving up and going home are tragic. Advice when you’re making a major move – even within the US – is give it at least 2 years. No matter where you go, things are really different from what you are used to. In my own case, when I moved from NYC to Seattle, I did give it 2 years at the end of which I realized I would never fit into the Pacific NW and came back to NY.

Although there is no way to prepare for the huge changes of a major move, people need to realize that things will be different, that not all the differences will be wonderful, and it’s they who will have to adapt not the place to which they are going.

Karen J-B

I will answer these next week but want your input as well. If you have thoughts or experience that can help answer these questions… send them to me.

Or send questions!

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary