Invest in Platinum Not Gold


When gold is super high… as it is now, it may be time to invest in platinum not gold.

platinum-coin

1 ounce Platinum coin… the Manx Noble.

I am not a good trader… this I learn decades ago… so Merri and I stick with what we enjoy… writing and publishing… speaking at seminars and courses once in awhile. This is our biggest investment in time and energy… something for which we seem to be well suited.

When we make a little money extra we like to put it in some idea that is really new or buy and fix up old or troubled places.

The balance of my investments are really conservative… diversified and in long term investments that do not absorb a lot of my time.

My psychic is not geared to watching any currency… commodity or stock market moves… nor can I detach my personality from my investments the way good traders do.  Putting yourself into a fixer upper is great… if your taste matches that of many others.

You can put your heart and soul in making a rough place beautiful.  Others will pay a premium for your effort and imagination.  This can be a labor of love.  But being attached to a futures trade…  option or highly leveraged, speculative contractual investment position can spell disaster!

At the 2007 Jyske Global Wealth Management seminar two great speakers shared some really good thoughts about investing.  They are below… but one of them that really stuck with me was  Don’t fall in love with a stock…the feeling is never mutual.

The same is true with a trading position… Don’t fall in love with a position… it does not care how you feel!

This is why the Jyske Global Asset Management Managed Forex Portfolio makes sense for most of us.

However.

There is one commodity position I love and will trade.  Whenever the price of platinum falls lower than the price of gold, I will buy platinum and sell gold short.

Now others… who know much more about this than I do are saying it is already time to invest in platinum.

An excerpt from an article entitled “Platinum to Gold Ratio: Time to Buy Platinum” by Kris Begic in the July 2 2010 issue of  Asset Strategies International’s newsletter explains: One of the casualties in the recent pull back in commodity prices is platinum. Although officially characterized as a precious metal, platinum is often viewed as an industrial commodity due to its applications in the automobile and manufacturing sectors. Consequently, the current uncertainty and volatility in global markets has led to a downdraft in the price of platinum. This same uncertainty has further consolidated interest in gold as a “safe haven” stabilizing and strengthening the gold price. As an investor it is helpful to examine the historical relationships and valuations associated with a variety of commodities. The current ratio between gold and platinum is showing a compelling value proposition for platinum.

Before discussing platinum vis-à-vis gold it is helpful to look at some of the current trends in the platinum market. Platinum and sister metals palladium and rhodium are the cornerstones in efforts to curb global automobile pollution. The majority of cars produced globally contain Platinum Group Elements (PGE). Emerging economies such as China and India have adopted early stage Western benchmarks in relation to particulate emissions with PGE based autocatalysis playing a pivotal role. Although current PGE weightings in Chinese autos are a fraction of that found in modern European vehicles the introduction of fully refined fuels combined with tighter emission standards over the next decade will usher in an era of larger catalysts and heavier PGE loadings into developing markets. It is important to note that the Chinese auto market is now the largest in the world on a per unit basis with over 18 million automobiles sold in 2009. As automobile consumption continues to expand globally legislated demand for PGE based catalysts is expected to grow significantly, underpinning platinum prices.

Interestingly enough as prices have rebounded in 2010 there is evidence to justify the buying threshold for platinum increasing with strong appetite around the $1,500 per ounce level. This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Platinum is ten times as rare as gold.  In 2008 when commodity markets crashed on the back of the financial crisis platinum plummeted from a high of $2,252 per ounce down to a low of $774. For a very short period gold actually traded higher than platinum. This was a “once in a lifetime” buying opportunity. The chart below shows the relationship between platinum and gold over the past ten years.

platinum-gold-chart

Historically it has taken roughly two ounces of gold to purchase an ounce of platinum. Today that ratio stands at approximately 1.2 to1. Investors with a “long and strong” view on gold prices should look at the current value of platinum in its historical context. Platinum is a rare and treasured metal and will continue to withstand the test of time as a store of value. Those seeking diversification in their precious metals portfolio may want to consider platinum.

Kris Begic is the Manager of Corporate Development for Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (PLG:NYSE/AMEX).

See a link to the full article on platinum below.

I am not ready to sell gold and buy platinum in a speculative position but an investment in platinum as a hedge against inflation makes sense to me now. You can get more details from Rich Checkan at Asset Strategies at rcheckan@assetstrategies.com

For those who like their platinum near at hand the Manx (Isle of Man) Platinum Noble is a one ounce platinum coin.

Manx Noble… heads…

platinum-coin

tails.

platinum-coin

They were for sale on eBay last week at about $1,700.

One other thought on platinum.

One niggling thought I have about gold is that the US government… might once again… when the US dollars falls…  might in desperation…. try to once again ban gold hoardings.  I hope…  I pray… that they will not be so desperate…. nor so stupid.

History does not necessarily support these prayers.  So they might.

This is just a thought… such a ban might not fall on platinum.

What history does support is that we can be pretty confident the world will see inflation in the years ahead. High inflation favors long term investments in gold.  Short term gold prices will rise and fall… sometimes being underbought… other times overbought.   When gold is super high… as it is now… near an all time high… it adds greatly to risk buying anything priced at an all time high.  So, as an inflation hedge, it may be time to invest in platinum not gold.

Gary

We’ll look more at platinum and gold in our October Quantum Wealth Course.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Join Merri and me in Copenhagen.

One reason to have caution when investing in gold now comes from a thought shared at the last Jyske Bank Global Wealth seminar.

That thought was: periods of high performance are always followed by periods of low performance.

This thought seems so simple yet is profound… and is ignored by the majority of most investors.

This is why I enjoy speaking at the Jyske seminars.  get to hear all the other speakers.

At the 2007 two Jyske speakers shared these thoughts about investing:

•    We know less than we think we do…and that’s OK.
•    Listen to those who disagree with us…this expands our horizons.
•    The consensus may be wrong…truth is not created through repletion of an error.
•    Don’t listen to emotions…we are just human beings.
•    Don’t trust analysts…they may be human beings in disguise!
•    Always evaluate shares you hold with the same critical eye as if you do not…ask, “Would you have acquired it today?”.
•    Don’t fall in love with a stock…the feeling is never mutual.
•    Sell your losers and let your winners run.
•    Risk is your partner…for better or for worse.
•    You cannot succeed without making mistakes…if you opt for certainty, you will die anonymously.

One of the speakers Per Hansen, the equity strategist for Jyske Bank will speak at the August 24 to 27 2010 seminar with me.  He is one of the most cited Danish strategists and has extensive experience with media and investor communication.

Per’s message in 2007 was about the benefits of risk and he looked at realities of risk and how inflation turns risk upside down.

His three fundamental investment ideals that form the core of his strategy include:

•    We should expect 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global nominal GDP growth and long term earnings growth plus risk premium.
•    To attain higher growth you must either increase risk or trust luck.
•    Invest in inexpensive equities that are paying a reasonable return.

Then Per talked about market noise. He asked, “why bother during crisis’s”? “Investors worry too much about short term noise. A lot of noise is being created by a lack of filters and investors should ignore this noise,” he said.

Per listed four important facts affect most investors:

•    They care too much about day to day volatility.
•    They care too little about strategy.
•    The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time.
•    This short term process leaves too little time to analyze and forecast.

He gave a suggestion of what to do when there is a market crisis.

•    Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.
•    Do not panic.
•    Do not let feelings influence you too much.
•    Ask your wife!
•    Do not count on extra ordinary returns. Be realistic.
•    Add some restructuring stories to your portfolio
•    Know that a period of high returns will be followed by a period of low returns.
•    Do not underexpose yourself for the long term
•    Risk is your friend or alibi for expecting higher returns.

investment-course

We also love Copenhagen’s open air and…

investment-course

waterfront dining.  Summer is the best time to visit Copenhagen.

One speaker who may provide some special emerging market insights is James Ellert, Professor of Finance and  Strategy, International Institute for Management Development, a global business school in Switzerland. Other speakers include will be Bjorn Lomborg known as the “Skeptical Environmentalist.”  See more on Lomborg here.

Another speaker will be Jeff Rubin. Rubin was the Chief Economist for CIBC, a North American investment bank for 20 years. See more about Rubin here.

Kenneth Rogoff  the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former Chief Economist for the International Monetary Fund is also a speaker. See more at Rogoff.

Another speaker is Daniel Brehon, the foreign exchange strategist, for Deutsche Bank AG.  See more about Daniel Brehon and Deutche Bank here.

Another speaker is Peter Berezin, Managing Editor Bank Credit Analyst Research.

The strong US dollar makes this the year to enjoy Europe and Thomas Fischer at Jyske just sent me this note: Gary due to the increasing US dollar, the cost for our August seminar in Copenhagen for Americans has dropped from about $2,050 to $1,700, a 15% discount. (THE COST INCLUDES MOST OF THE FOOD, TRIPS, MAKING THE CONFERENCE A GREAT BARGAIN.)

Some great things about the Copenhagen conference are the seminar of course…then there’s the stunning food and the wonderful visits included…This package includes:  accommodation at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel for four nights, (25-28 August) including breakfast,  Reception and dinner at the bank’s Copenhagen offices, seminar fee and materials for the seminar sessions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. full lunches on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, canal & harbour tour on Friday in the late afternoon, four-course gala dinner with entertainment and dancing on Saturday evening, and a Sunday excursion including lunch.

Merri and I always go on the excursion also to Silkebord with a drive out into the country, lovely food, picnic cruise and a chance to see the main office and the trading center.  This is always our most interesting, favorite and delightful conference…and we hope you will join us there!  We love the stroll along the harbor, the fresh air, wonderful meals and interesting people from all over the world.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

Read “Platinum to Gold Ratio: Time to Buy Platinum”