The Value of Good Value Investments


Looking for good value in investing and business is a way to work through all the noise.

czech-equity-market

See below which equity market has had this performance and why it may be the best valued bourse in the world… plus a good value share traded on that exchange.

First, more on the value of good value investments.

Yesterday’s message War on Four Fronts looked at potential problems that could have a profound impact on our social and economic world.

If the wars on the southern border of the USA and in Korea were both to expand… what could happen and what can we do about it?

First, let’s recognize that a lot of extra money… that the government does not have… will be spent. This is not invested money.  If someone borrows to invest… the result can be good or bad… depending on how the investment does.  Borrowing to consume however almost always turns out bad.

If we take a holistic view… this is not the government’s debt. This is your debt and mine and our neighbors. That money will come out of our packets one way or the other eventually.  The charge may come in increased taxes… reduced government services… lower value of our currency or inflation… plus maybe some one off costs… defunct pensions… broken banks…. some things like this.

What we can do about this is invest in good value inflation fighting opportunities… commodities… our own micro business… real estate… or equities.

Second. realize that the volume of noise will grow. Every society has an educational system that teaches its populations how things are supposed to be.   When events do not evolve as citizens have been taught… there is much gnashing of teeth… increased noise that if listened too, deafens one’s hearing to the greater… more holistic symphony of life.

The way to block this noise is to search for value in realistic, personalized, disciplined thought.

Since one of the recent screeches that has scratched across our daily records at a loud volume is the Greek economic crisis… let’s get some positive spin from Greece… from a couple of millenniums ago… from Socrates when he made the statement that he was a “citizen of the world.”

I wrote the same thing in the 1970s (that I felt like a citizen of the world) in my first book Passport to International Profit. Honestly I believed this was an original thought. Yet as we see Socrates beat me to it by a couple thousand years. I am sure a myriad of others did as well.  Maybe there really are no original thoughts.

Anyway Socrates declared himself “a citizen of the world.”   Since the Greeks did not have jet travel in those times his view of what the world consisted of was a little more narrow than yours or mine today but what he meant was that he did not feel bound by the rules of thought of any state or government.

He was enriched by a lifetime of free-thinking and understanding of the entire world (albeit limited) around him.  This was an incredible statement, especially considering the penalty of free thought in that era.  Socrates encouraged his Greek fellows to think purely for themselves.

This was such a revolutionary concept that it did not end well for him short term.   He was tried on two charges: “corrupting the youth and impiety (‘failing to acknowledge the gods that the city acknowledges’ and ‘introducing new deities). This led to his execution.

Long term thanks to technology that makes global travel and communication, we really can be citizens of the world.  So we owe Socrates for the thought and if we march to the beat of our own drummer… we stop hearing all the noise.

Next expect the noise to be mostly negative. There is a great quote about how to overcome this problem from the Daili Lama in a recent Time interview.

He was asked: How do you stay so optimistic and faithful when there is so much hate in the world? His reply was:  I always look at any event from a wider angle. There’s always some problem, some killing, some murder or terrorist act or scandal everywhere, every day. But if you think the whole world is like that, you’re wrong. Out of 6 billion humans, the troublemakers are just a handful.

This is so true. For every negative event in this world there are millions that are positive. Yet our news system focuses on the bad.  What we can do is always keep in mind that problems create opportunity… to serve…to be fulfilled and to earn.

Third, realize that the herd will try to sweep you along.

An affirmation of this fact  can be seen in Warren Buffet’s (the ultimate value investor) testimony before a commission appointed by Congress to investigate the actions of credit rating agencies during the boom that led to the recent financial crisis.  Buffett was issued a subpoena to appear before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission hearing in New York because his firm Berkshire Hathaway owns more than 13% of Moody’s stock.  He said of the stock market, sub primed fueled bubble,   “I was wrong on it, too, I called it a bubble-ette. That was the wrong term to use. It was a four-star bubble.  It really was the granddaddy of all bubbles,” Buffett said.  “In boom times, even the wisest can lose their common sense, he said, noting that the scientific genius Sir Isaac Newton was a victim of the notorious South Sea stock bubble of 1720: “Rising prices are a narcotic that affects reasoning power up and down the line.” (my bold).

Here are some tips on what we can do to steady ourselves against the public current that in terms of value is almost always wrong.

These tips came from a reader who wrote:  We just returned from Omaha and the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting with Warren Buffett.

Although we have been shareholders for years, I never carved out the time to attend…. DUMB! We will be going back next year.

I have always thought that if you are going to listen to somebody, make sure they are eating their own cooking and have created truly sustainable success. Clearly, Warren Buffett falls into this category and his insights are crystal clear, simple and make sense….. here are a couple that I found particularly useful:

1.  The key to getting rich is to create a structure or set of rules that minimizes the “Everyone else is doing it” syndrome. If everyone else is doing it, be wary!

2.  The primary key to successful investing is not the size of your circle of competence, but rather knowing where the perimeter is. Too many people drift away from what they know and in the process move from investor to speculator.

3.  The biggest single cause of the recent meltdown on Wall Street is the Business Schools and MBA Programs throughout the country. Teaching people to invest for the short term instead of owning a piece of the business will always produce gyrations and spikes in stock prices.

4.  The most recent rise in the stock market is primarily a result of low interest rates…. people can’t stand sitting on the sidelines making 2/10th of 1% on their money. Money has started flowing back into stocks because there are no alternatives and most investors can’t sit and do nothing when there is nothing to do that makes sense.

5.  Given the recent level of government intervention on top of the previously existing debt obligations in the United States, inflation is very likely. So are higher taxes. Inflation and higher taxes are the result of an the US inability to live within its means, so collecting and printing more money is the most likely answer.

6.  The real culprit in the recent economic turmoil in the US is not the US Treasury department, it’s Congress. Too much money has been spent in comparison to the amount being collected and this imbalance will result in even more pain.

7.  The problem in Greece is that it doesn’t have its own currency to print its way out of the problem…. Nor do any of the other members of the Euro. The Greece problem is likely to be repeated several times in the coming months.

8.  Long term, Warren and his long time partner Charlie Munger are HUGE believers in the US economy, which is why they just spent $29 Billion buying a railroad. Railroads will be the primary mover of goods in the foreseeable future. The better the US economy, the more goods that need to be moved. This is a long term “all in” bet on the United States economy.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the spectacular investing results of Warren Buffett, consider this: In 1979, you could have purchased his stock for $290/share. Today it costs $120,000/share. You can read more about this incredible man and his investing philosophy by reading his annual Chairman’s Letter to Shareholders…. You should read all of them (1977-2009):  http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

For those of you addicted to speed, please remember that it took Warren 12 years (1950-1962) to make his first million…. The lesson: The goal is not to get rich…. The goal is to get rich and stay that way!

A recent message at this site pointed out that a good sign was that our business grew fast in bad times and much more slowly in good times. This is a signal that we are watching value… buying and investing more when prices are low and less when they are high.

Create your own structure set by the limits of your unique wants… needs and desires that stresses the relentless search for good value in all you do.

If that structure includes equities, then you may want to take a look at this equity market which is perhaps currently the best…

czech-equity-market

valued market in the world.

We closely follow the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and this chart from his latest quarterly Emerging Market Value Analysis gives nine emerging markets a top value ranking.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

czech-equity-market

The Czech Market has the highest dividend yield and yield is one of the most important indicators of value.

We can see a great appreciation in this market as well. In the first quarter of 2010 the Czech Market rose 26.3% in US dollars.

czech-equity-market

One good value share traded on the Czech exchange is CEZ a.s. the CEZ group traded in Warsaw as CEZ and on the Pink OTC Markets Inc: CZAVF.

The heading from their web site reads.

FROM A CZECH CORPORATION TO A MULTINATIONAL GROUP

The strategic goal of CEZ Group is to become the leader on the Central and Southeastern European electricity market. Apart from the production and sale of electricity, CEZ Group also deals in telecommunications, informatics, nuclear research, planning, construction and maintenance of energy facilities, mining raw materials, and processing energy by-products. CEZ Group currently belongs among the three largest heat suppliers in the CzechRepublic.

The parent company and core of CEZ Group is ČEZ, a. s. the largest electricity producer in the CzechRepublic, founded in 1992 by the National Property Fund. CEZ Group was created in 2003, when ČEZ, a. s. merged with several regional distribution companies. Today, CEZ Group belongs among ten of the largest energy companies in Europe, both in terms of installed capacity and number of customers. It occupies a leading position on the electricity market in Central Europe. Following the acquisition of three distribution companies in Bulgaria, one in Romania, two Polish power plants and one Bulgarian power plant, CEZ Group has become a multinational enterprise comprising of over 90 Czech and foreign companies.

See more about CEZ here.

You can see that sales are up but…

cez-sales

according to this Bloomberg chart, the CEZ share price is down.

cez-sales

This is what we look for in our search for value… businesses in a growth markets available at times when prices are low… yet business is booming.

I am not suggesting that you invest in this share. Perhaps it fits into the limits of your unique wants… needs and desires. If not perhaps it can be a role model  in how you search for good value in all you do.

See some ideas why Ecuador offers good value here.

Gary

We’ll review all the good value investing markets and good value micro business ideas at our June 24-27 Quantum wealth course in North Carolina.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary


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