Tag Archive | "Value investing"

How Big Investing is Small


Merri’s and my personal equity portfolio is one of the most complicated in the world.

Thousands of shares in 18 non US stock markets are represented.  The investments include dozens of currencies.  One precious metal has been added to the mix.

Yet this big, complicated portfolio has a small cost, requires only small amounts of time and has the smallest amount of worry.

Our trading cost for this monstrosity?

Less than $20 in the last two years.

This must take huge amounts of time?

Just minutes…

The investments took just minutes to buy and only spend minutes a week monitoring the results.

This gives me time to focus on my  passions-family, life and my work, which has always been a more dependable source of  sustenance than investments.

Here is a review of one of Merri’s and my personal investment accounts using the principles of the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).

This particular Portfolio is held at the online brokers Motif.com.  This means that my original investment of $40,000 has trading costs of just $9.95.  I added the platinum ETF PLT which cost another $4.95 so my trading costs in two years has been less than $20.

This portfolio (Blue Line) has risen much faster than the S&P 500 (Green Line) in the last 6 months.

motif

Click on images to enlarge.

Here are the shares in the portfolio.

motif

motif

motif

motif

This personal Pifolio is heavily weighted in the developed markets. Here is why.

Pi depends on the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the latest Keppler analysis of good value emerging markets show that the price to book is 1.34 compared to 1.47 for good value developed markets.  The PE ratio of the emerging markets is much better, 12.9 versus 19.0 but here is the catch… the average dividend yield for emerging and developed markets is almost the same, 3.35% for emerging markets versus 3.31% for developed markets.

Developed markets have lower volatility.   This stability, along with the similar dividend yields, fits my personal needs (higher income) as Merri and I are in our 70s and we don’t work as hard as we used to.

Emerging Market Values

keppler

Developed Market Values

keppler

This is a low cost portfolio.  The shares have been purchased at a good price to book value.

Compare the price to book of our portfolio to the US Stock Market.  We purchased our shares at about 1.4o to book.  On average you’ll buy US shares at 3.13 times their book value. On top of that, our portfolio earns an average yield of  about 3.3% compared to the average yield you’ll earn from US shares.

We can never know what will happen n the global economy.   We can know how much we are paying for this unknown and we are paying a lot less (and getting more).

Plus currently there is good appreciation.  We get all this plus enjoy more time because very little time is required to monitor this portfolio.

This is a formula which fits Merri’s and my needs and might fit yours as well!

Whatever your needs, when investing, always look for value, keep your costs low, diversify but not too much and remember that every investment has risk.

The Purposeful Development Course (Pi) is currently examining each Good Value Stock Market in good value countries, one at a time.  Learn more about Pi below.

Gary

Borrow Low – Invest High

Turn $29.95 into $7,313 profit…

This has happened already… and that profit came in less than seven months!

Right now, an amazing investing trend is taking place. 

Right now.  Most investors will miss cashing in.  You do not have to lose out.

Really?  Let’s take a look why…

Borrow $10,000.  No loan application is required.  Or you can borrow $1,000 or $100,000. The amount does not matter much.  That decision is yours.  You’ll  get the lowest interest rates of any broker, (according to the Barron’s 2017 online broker reviews), right now between 1.41% to 2.66%.

Here is what has happened…

The trend is already on it is way.  We first alerted readers in December of 2015.  Just recently the trend turned hot and is accelerating, so you cannot wait long.

The two charts below are from one of my personal, real test accounts.  I set up the accounts and invested with my own personal funds to track what’s going on (and profit myself) so I can share my discoveries with readers.

There is no fake news here.  The figures below are the results of real money invested after costs… and the profits are growing  as you read this note.

We made the investment, based on a mathematical value analysis, before the trend started. We have been waiting since for the investment’s evolution to roll.  This is the best way to invest,  spot a value anomaly, get in position and wait… like a hunter.  The trap is set.

Wait…

We were patient.  The profits did not come as fast as expected… but as you’ll see, the waiting was really worth while.  We did not have to spend a lot of time trading either.  We have better things to do in life.   This is a time saver type of investing.  The tactic also avoids costly trading fees that eat up most investing profits.

We stalk.

Find good value…

Invest. Wait until the trend picks up.

Then we profit!

Like right now…  as these real time results since January 2017 show.

We took our position at the end of 2015.   The results for the first year (shown in the blue line) were not bad.  They were a bit better than the S&P 500 (green line)… for those who waited.

motif

January 2017, the trend really started to warm.

In May, 2o17 it became hot!

motif

Let’s look at this in numbers…

The portfolio was $41,594 at the beginning of January this year.  In just over seven months that portfolio grew to $49,397, up $7,803 or 18.76% of the total portfolio.

But wait a minute…

Because a loan could be made (at 2.66%) only $10,000 need be invested.  $31,594 of investment could be derived from an investment loan.  The interest on that loan for seven months was only $490.  After that loan cost, the profit was still $7,313 or 73.13%.

73% in just seven months?

That’s right, already.  There is even greater potential ahead.

Learn how to tap into this profit which most investors will miss…

Discover… where to get the investments… where the best loans are…  how the strategy works.

This information is in my report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

I have taught the concept in this report to tens of thousands of readers. They have made millions.

In 2015 I updated and offered this report for $29.95.

You can get the report while the trend is hot… and you can  get it FREE.

I’ll explain why I want as many readers as possible, and why you’ll want it, in a moment.

First let me answer a really important question…

Isn’t there some risk?

Yes.  There is always risk when you invest.

The first golden rule of investing outlined in the report and our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is…”there is always something we do not know”.

The numbers above are what have happened.   We never know for sure what will happen.

But there is a way to dramatically increase the odds that your investment will reap this type of high reward and be safer because of Pi Strategies.

Pi stands for the Purposeful investing Course and Pi strategies are built around several layers of tactics.

Pi Tactic #1: Diversify 80% to 100% of a portfolio equally in ETFs that invest in good value developed and emerging equity markets as defined by Keppler Asset Management.

Pi Tactic#2: Use trending algorithms from Tradestops.com to buy, sell or hold these good value ETFs.

Pi Tactic #3: Add spice with ideal condition speculations in forex distortions and precious metals.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing based on mathematics.  Pi’s is to save time by investing for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

Now the trend behind every one of these shares is up!

It’s not too late to capture this trend.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pi analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

The report I am offering you free reveals all 19 ETFs that are being swept up in this trend.

These shares are the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place and are driving this current trend.

 

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.

A repeat of this pattern has been  growing, has started and could create up to 50% extra profit by the time it ends.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.   My short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”  is simple, gets right to the point and shows what to do, plus includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

You can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

The purposeful investing Course (Pi)will help you cash in on this current trend.

Feed a man a fish.

We have all heard the story.

This is the basis of Pi, to give you an easy, low cost repeatable routine so good equity, currency and metal trends can be found again and again.

Our courses on investing have been helping astute reads find value investment again and again for decades.

For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

That trend is over now but a new metals trend is in place.

We have stalked it.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report Silver Dip 2017.

You can order the Silver Dip 2017 here for $39.95

See below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.   We’ll set up an annual renewal for you at $299 per year if you decide to continue getting updates.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Cash in on this hot trend now.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

(1) Learn more about ENR Asset Management services from Thomas Fischer thomas@enrasset.com

(2) Bloomberg: Dollar Index Chart

(3) www.benzinga.com:  Silver etfs slide as dollar bounces

(4) Learn more about Tradestops.com here.

How to Profit From Ugly


There is so much change.   It’s hard to keep up!  So here’s a tip.

Change is good because…

If nothing changed we could never get ahead.  We would be stuck where we are, in static.

Besides, we all know that nothing is constant.

All the promises we hear about to return to how it was is are just for illusion’s sake.

There is nothing but one way to move…

We have to move ahead.

Here is one way to take advantage of this universal fact.

usda

USDA standards are a refection of how most people ignore true value.

When Merri and I moved to our home in Central Florida we inherited a small commercial, navel orange grove that was attached to our house.

This created a small business and also gave us a supply of all types of citrus, any time we want, right off the tree.

Here’s a tip our grove manager  gave us.  “The ugliest oranges are usually the sweetest fruit.”

Yet the USDA standard’s are based mostly on fruit looking good.

For a fruit to be labeled U.S. Fancy it must meet the following basic requirements:

1) Well colored and not more than one-tenth of the surface, in the aggregate, may be affected by discoloration.
2) Firm, mature, smooth texture.
3) Well formed.

These are great characteristics for art… but food?  What about taste, nutrition, lack of toxicity?

This is the way things are.

This fact can help us find ways to live in a better way.

A recent Wall Street Journal article “Head of America’s Largest Grocer Talks Amazon and Ugly Tomatoes”  gives us a clue when it says:  Kroger facing slowing growth and more competition online and from discount chains like Wal-Mart

Mr. McMullen: I grew up on a farm. Last Sunday, I went out to see my parents and their garden, and I find the produce that looks the ugliest tastes the best.

Here is the tip…

Most people fear change so they are willing to accept the appearance of stability.  Look beneath the surface, for deeper values.  This search makes you rare, astute… wise.   Therein lays opportunity.

There will be change…

Most will resist it., but as Confucius said: “They must often change, who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.”

We have to change with the times.   Look for real, beneath the skin value. That’s the trick to everlasting wealth.

Gary

One change that is likely to take place due to the storms is acceleration of the falling US dollar. See how to get protection (and profit) from this trend below.

Borrow Low – Invest High

Turn $29.95 into $7,313 profit…

This has happened already… and that profit came in less than seven months!

Right now, an amazing investing trend is taking place. 

Right now.  Most investors will miss cashing in.  You do not have to lose out.

Really?  Let’s take a look why…

Borrow $10,000.  No loan application is required.  Or you can borrow $1,000 or $100,000. The amount does not matter much.  That decision is yours.  You’ll  get the lowest interest rates of any broker, (according to the Barron’s 2017 online broker reviews), right now between 1.41% to 2.66%.

Here is what has happened…

The trend is already on it is way.  We first alerted readers in December of 2015.  Just recently the trend turned hot and is accelerating, so you cannot wait long.

The two charts below are from one of my personal, real test accounts.  I set up the accounts and invested with my own personal funds to track what’s going on (and profit myself) so I can share my discoveries with readers.

There is no fake news here.  The figures below are the results of real money invested after costs… and the profits are growing  as you read this note.

We made the investment, based on a mathematical value analysis, before the trend started. We have been waiting since for the investment’s evolution to roll.  This is the best way to invest,  spot a value anomaly, get in position and wait… like a hunter.  The trap is set.

Wait…

We were patient.  The profits did not come as fast as expected… but as you’ll see, the waiting was really worth while.  We did not have to spend a lot of time trading either.  We have better things to do in life.   This is a time saver type of investing.  The tactic also avoids costly trading fees that eat up most investing profits.

We stalk.

Find good value…

Invest. Wait until the trend picks up.

Then we profit!

Like right now…  as these real time results since January 2017 show.

We took our position at the end of 2015.   The results for the first year (shown in the blue line) were not bad.  They were a bit better than the S&P 500 (green line)… for those who waited.

motif

January 2017, the trend really started to warm.

In May, 2o17 it became hot!

motif

Let’s look at this in numbers…

The portfolio was $41,594 at the beginning of January this year.  In just over seven months that portfolio grew to $49,397, up $7,803 or 18.76% of the total portfolio.

But wait a minute…

Because a loan could be made (at 2.66%) only $10,000 need be invested.  $31,594 of investment could be derived from an investment loan.  The interest on that loan for seven months was only $490.  After that loan cost, the profit was still $7,313 or 73.13%.

73% in just seven months?

That’s right, already.  There is even greater potential ahead.

Learn how to tap into this profit which most investors will miss…

Discover… where to get the investments… where the best loans are…  how the strategy works.

This information is in my report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

I have taught the concept in this report to tens of thousands of readers. They have made millions.

In 2015 I updated and offered this report for $29.95.

You can get the report while the trend is hot… and you can  get it FREE.

I’ll explain why I want as many readers as possible, and why you’ll want it, in a moment.

First let me answer a really important question…

Isn’t there some risk?

Yes.  There is always risk when you invest.

The first golden rule of investing outlined in the report and our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is…”there is always something we do not know”.

The numbers above are what have happened.   We never know for sure what will happen.

But there is a way to dramatically increase the odds that your investment will reap this type of high reward and be safer because of Pi Strategies.

Pi stands for the Purposeful investing Course and Pi strategies are built around several layers of tactics.

Pi Tactic #1: Diversify 80% to 100% of a portfolio equally in ETFs that invest in good value developed and emerging equity markets as defined by Keppler Asset Management.

Pi Tactic#2: Use trending algorithms from Tradestops.com to buy, sell or hold these good value ETFs.

Pi Tactic #3: Add spice with ideal condition speculations in forex distortions and precious metals.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing based on mathematics.  Pi’s is to save time by investing for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

Now the trend behind every one of these shares is up!

It’s not too late to capture this trend.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pi analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

The report I am offering you free reveals all 19 ETFs that are being swept up in this trend.

These shares are the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place and are driving this current trend.

 

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.

A repeat of this pattern has been  growing, has started and could create up to 50% extra profit by the time it ends.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.   My short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”  is simple, gets right to the point and shows what to do, plus includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

You can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

The purposeful investing Course (Pi)will help you cash in on this current trend.

Feed a man a fish.

We have all heard the story.

This is the basis of Pi, to give you an easy, low cost repeatable routine so good equity, currency and metal trends can be found again and again.

Our courses on investing have been helping astute reads find value investment again and again for decades.

For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

That trend is over now but a new metals trend is in place.

We have stalked it.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report Silver Dip 2017.

You can order the Silver Dip 2017 here for $39.95

See below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.   We’ll set up an annual renewal for you at $299 per year if you decide to continue getting updates.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Cash in on this hot trend now.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

(1) Learn more about ENR Asset Management services from Thomas Fischer thomas@enrasset.com

(2) Bloomberg: Dollar Index Chart

(3) www.benzinga.com:  Silver etfs slide as dollar bounces

(4) Learn more about Tradestops.com here.

(1) www.wsj.com: Head of Americas largest grocer talks amazon and ugly tomatoes

Huge Investing Error


Two of last week’s Wall Street Journal articles revealed how many investors are making a huge mistake.

The first article “This Market Really Is Different This Time” tells how small investors are moving away from the overheated US stock-market.

The article says:  The market has hit Dow 22000 not because of the individual investors Wall Street calls “the dumb money” but in spite of them.

Over the past month, small investors have pulled $17 billion out of U.S. stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and added $29 billion to bond funds. That’s the latest leg of a long-term trend: Since the internet-stock bubble burst in 2000, investors have withdrawn half a trillion dollars from U.S. stock mutual funds.

That’s smart, but guess what…

Small investors are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire, because their exodus comes from rebalancing.  As Americans reach retirement age, they shift from stocks to bonds.

There is a flaw in this massive trend.

Investors “rebalance” using pre-set proportions of stocks and bonds.  If  the proportion, for example, is 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds, when stocks go up their value becomes more than the value of bonds in the portfolio.  The investor automatically sells stocks and buys bonds to get back to 50% stock and 50% bond values..

It is reckoned that trillions are managed this way, to automatically scale back stock holdings as investors age and the US stock market rises.

The big mistake is that the US dollar shares sold are invested in a weak and dangerous bonds and a weak and dangerous US dollar.

The math is simple and reveals a huge error.

Bonds pay lousy returns at this time.

A Wall Street Journal article about the basic weakness of the US dollar (2) explains why the dollar will slide more.

This article says: Currency’s slide since January has near-term upsides for manufacturers, multinationals and the Fed.

The U.S. currency has been in a steady decline since January after reaching a 15-year high.  The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against the currencies of major trading partners, is down about 8% since the beginning of the year, including a more than 2% drop over the past month. Its decline has been especially pronounced against the euro, 15%, and the Mexican peso, 28%.

It makes U.S. exports cheaper overseas, and thus helps to drive production at home.  In June, exports were up 7% from a year earlier.  That’s a sharp reversal compared with the 9% drop from 2014 to 2016, when the dollar was climbing rapidly.

This article points out that the current federal administration likes a dollar that’s not too strong.

Hold on just a second…

Why do they want a weak dollar?   Softening of the greenback makes the politicians look good. US exports become cheaper.  This helps American manufacturing, mainly the top executives and big investors who are not investing in low yielding bonds.

What’s the catch?

Those same weak dollars can ruin your and my purchasing power in two ways.   First, bonds pay lousy yields.   Second, everything we buy from abroad costs more… in US dollar terms.  Our German and Japanese cars,  Canadian lumber, Mexican tomatoes and Chilean grapes and every other darn thing we have become reliant on that is grown or made outside the USA.  This creates increased costs for US business and hinders the entire economic system in the US.

wall street journal

Chart from the Wall Street Journal article on the crash of the US dollar.

Gary

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar rose almost 50% above its lows of 2011.   Last year the greenback was at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee was also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar had crashed.  In other words, the US dollar has been in a period of high performance.

The greenback is in a free fall.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

 

(1) wsj.com: This market really is different this time

(2) www.wsj.com: Dollar weakness article

 

The Power of Thrift


There is power in investing thrift.  Avoid frequent trading.  Reduce investing costs. Don’t get ripped off by Wall Street.

wsj.com

Image from WSJ.com article “Wells Fargo, Awash in Scandal, Faces Violations Over Car Insurance Refunds”  (1)

How bad are the thieves who are supposed to look after our money?   The big guys can cheat their customers again and again.  The New York Times article above shows how this bank has ripped off its customers for a third time in just one year.

The article says:  Wells Fargo, the scandal-plagued bank, is facing new regulatory scrutiny for not refunding insurance money owed to people who paid off their car loans early.

This is the third such incident revealed in just the last year, for just this bank.

How many shenanigans are not revealed in this industry?

Last year, Wells Fargo bank employees created millions of credit card and bank accounts that customers had not requested.  They robbed customers of millions.

Last month, this same bank was found to have forced unneeded collision insurance on consumers who financed their car purchases.  That practice hit 800,000 customers caused 274,000 people to be delinquent and 25,000 cars to be wrongly repossessed.

Now the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is investigating a different insurance rip off related to a different type of insurance called guaranteed auto protection insurance, or GAP.

It is not mandatory for car buyers to carry GAP insurance, which typically costs $400 to $600. But car dealers push the insurance, and lenders like it because of the protection it provides.  When borrowers pay off the loans early, Wells Fargo should have provided a refund of some of the GAP insurance premium.

Guess what… they did not.

We are on our own!  We should not expect the authorities to protect us.

The Wall Street Journal article “When Brokers Want to Move Your Money Out of a Very Good Thing” (2) explains why.

The article says: So far this year, here’s what our friends in the federal government have done for — and to — citizens who hope to find simple ways to save enough money for retirement without anyone robbing them blind.

■ Continued a year’s long fight against a rule that requires many retirement advisers to act in their clients’ best interests.

■ Reversed a rule that would have made it easier for states to create retirement savings plans for people who don’t have one at work.

■ Abandoned a new federal program to help lower-income savers, young ones in particular.

The article tells how brokers allegedly persuaded about 200 people to move money out of a safe government plan and put the funds in expensive annuities, earning hefty commissions.  The overall costs in the government plan are about as low as employer-based retirement savings plans get,  about 38 cents for every $1,000 someone had invested.

Moving investors out of the plan earned four brokers about $1.7 million in commissions, at the investor’s expense.  Once again Wall Street used investors hard earned savings to line a broker’s pocketbooks.

We publish The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) to help readers improve their investment trading discipline so they can increase profits, reduce risk, reduce trading costs and save time.

The core of the Pi strategy is to use math based financial news to invest in a portfolio of equities in the best value stock markets using country ETFs.  These mathematically calculated valuations do not change quickly, and the portfolios researched by Pi have not traded once in the last two years.

This creates an enormous thrift.

One big question about how to manage these Pi portfolos called Pifolios is “What to  do when markets have a severe correction?”

Here is an excerpt from a recent Pi Update that looks at two strategies for dealing with market downturns but keeping costs down.

The first strategy is hold on and continue to accumulate value.  This works well if an investor has time for the portfolio to ride before cash is required.  If one sticks to the strategy (and does not bail out at the bottom), this strategy requires the least time.  Investors can focus on more important aspects in life.

Plus trading costs are kept at a minimum.

The second strategy is to use math to spot trends and use trailing stops (based on market momentum not entry price) to get out of a market before it severely declines.

This strategy offers the best long term profit, IF an investor can stick to the strategy AND ALSO uses the same math to get back into the market as it recovers.

As the US Stock Market leaps from all time high to all time high, it’s time to ask ourselves “When will the US stock market bull be over?   What to do about it?”

At Pi we track market momentum in all the Pi ETFs at Tradestops.com.

On June 16, 2017 Dr. Richard Smith CEO of Tradestops wrote: “Is This 9-Year Bull Market Over?”

We are well into the ninth year of a bull market that has barely seen any 10% corrections, much less a 20% drop.  But warning signs that this bullish market are coming to an end have begun to show up.

The three danger signals mentioned at that time were:

#1: The short-term trend of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) was to the downside, yet the short-term trend of the DJIA was to the upside.

The  Dow Theory states that (DJTA) must also be trading at new highs for the new highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to be confirmed, otherwise the trend of the DJIA is not sustainable.

Since 1999, each time this has occurred has been the precursor of a downward move in the DJIA.

#2: The divergence in the DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP).  The DJIA was trading at new highs, yet the COMP was trading more than 2% off its most recent highs.

Since 1971, there have been 12 times that the DJIA has been at new highs with the COMP at least 2% off its highs.  In 9 of the previous 11 occurrences, the DJIA has moved lower.

#3: Commercial traders in the DJIA had a historically-large net negative position.  When their positions have been negative in the past, it has led to downturns in the DJIA.

Last week Dr. Smith warned again in an editorial titled “Is the Bear About to Pounce?” and pointed out that the divergence  of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) from the  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has grown.

The short-term trend of the DJTA is to the downside, yet the short-term trend of the DJIA is to the upside.

tradestops

The benefit that Tradestops offers investors is a Stock State Indicator of specific shares that suggests price levels for rising trailing stops as the markets rise.

Dr. Smith also wrote in last week’s editorial:  “No matter what happens with the markets, however, I’m not worried. I’ve got my stops in place. I know what I’ve got at risk and I’m comfortable with it. Could something go terribly wrong? You bet. That’s what my stops are for. They’re like having your seat belt on in the car.

“On the other hand, could something go terribly right? Absolutely! The entire summer has seen the stock market climb a wall of worry to new all-time highs. Just today we saw stronger than expected job creation. Upside surprises are always a possibility.

“My stops protect me on the way down, but they’ve also been moving higher and capturing greater profits on the way up. We should never forget that trailing stops are just as important for “unlimiting your upside” as they are for limiting your downside.”

Warnings of a Wall Street crash lead us to other important questions.

Will other stock markets fall in tandem with the US?

Will other stock markets rise as investors pull out of the US and invest in other markets.

Whatever the answer, the best place to be is still in good value markets.  The best strategy is still to use math based financial news to reveal good value and to invest equally in good value markets.

Trailing stops is an additional way to protect again a global secular stock market slide.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets.  Pi also uses math at Tradestops.com to see the momentum of these good value markets.

For example, we can see that all the ETFs in the Pifolio have green SSIs (Stock State Indicators).

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle indicating the health of your stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

What this signal indicates is the current health of the stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI will tell you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading is a key component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below are the Major and Emerging market Pifolios that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Click on images to enlarge Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

All the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio currently have a green SSI.  This is also the case for the Good Value Emerging Market Pifolio below.

tradestops

Good Value Emerging Market Pifolio.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifolios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection can be added by using trailing stops based on the momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF has a green SSI at this time.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at $31.26 and it is currently at $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggest that if the price drops to $31.69, its momentum will have stopped and it is trading sideways.  The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning, and the stop loss price will rise as well.

There are numerous signs that the nine year US stock market bull will end.  No one knows for sure when or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?  We do not know the answer to this question either.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

You can learn how to use Tradestops.com to improve investing discipline.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: Wells Fargo, awash in scandal, faces violations over car insurance refunds

(2) www.nytimes.com: When brokers want to move your money out of a very good thing

50 Year Advantage

garyheadshot

My 50 years of investing experience helped subscribers in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) recently earn 98.68% profit in eight months without investing an extra penny.  Now there is something bigger.

In November 2015, silver had dropped to a special low price.  The gold-silver spread had reached a historic high.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF ( symbol “SLV”) was priced at US$13.60 per share.

The British pound parity was US$1.54 US dollars per share.

We issued a special report (Silver Dip 2015) to Pi subscribers showing how a 30 year cycle and the risk reward ratio had tipped towards using a British pound margin account to invest in the silver ETF “SLV”.

Here is what happened to an investment of US$10,000 with an additional margin loan of  6,500 pounds.  The 6,500 pounds were converted to US$10,000.  The total $20,000 was invested in SLV at US$13.60.  This purchased 1,470 shares of the “SLV” ETF.

Eight months later “SLV” shares reached $19.22.  Those shares were worth US$28,253.

Paying off the 6,500 pound loan cost only US$8,325 because the pound, due in part to Brexit, had crashed to $1.29.  After the loan payoff, the balance was US$19,868.

The profit in eight months was $9,868 or 98.68% of the original $10,000 invested.

When a new profit potential came up I updated the report into “Silver Dip 2017” which I would like to send you.  See below how to get this $39.95 value FREE.

I have been writing and speaking about international investments for five decades so this is not the first time Pi subscribers made profits off leverage.  Earlier, subscribers received a report entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” that showed how shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro could also bring a fast profit with minimal risk.

What a ride!  The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in just three monthsThe Dow Jones Industrial average rose 9.5% in the same period.  Those who borrowed yen and invested in the Dow Jones industrial average earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5% in three months.

Earlier, we helped readers earn up to 266.3% in one year using Swiss franc and yen margin loans.  Then we recommended getting out of all the shares and investing in Danish & Swedish bonds before the 2007 to 2009 global stock market crash.  Again and again we have helped subscribers spot special, profit generating distortions that are risk adverse when an investor has time to let the opportunity correct.

Yet our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value.  Our purpose is to save time as we invest for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with mathematical science can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.

Research published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of using this ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at this Golden Ratio of 1.6 to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses this in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

Order the Silver Dip here for $39.95

Or see below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

 

Stock Markets & Time


Is it time for the US stock market to fall? 

einstein

Albert Einstein on time and money:

Albert Einstein helped humanity understand that time is relative.  He also had something to say about time and money when he said this about compound interest.

Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” – Albert Einstein

Einstein had a good point about compound interest but never considered zero and negative interest.  Compound returns over 30 or 40 years at zero return are still zero!  This fact has left us in stock value territory that is really unknown.

So let’s ask the question again…. Is it time for the US stock market to fall?

Maybe the market will rise.  Maybe it will fall.  No one knows, so let’s take time and look at stock market timing, the value of time in the market and most important, the value of time in our lives.

The Wall Street Journal article, “This Market Can’t Go on Much Longer” (1) seems to think the market is headed for a crash.

The article says:  The stock market has surged 20% since the election as much has gone right and little wrong. That hardly ever lasts.  The stock market has surged 20% since the election, making it expensive by almost any measure. The drivers of the rally are well-known: Strong corporate earnings, solid global growth, central bank stimulus and a relatively stable global geopolitical environment. These positives have made the market one of the calmest of all time, which has given investors more confidence and further boosted stocks.

Can those factors continue? In most cases-no, though the timing and size of the next shift is impossible to know. But these trends are interconnected and have reinforced one another on the way up. A crack in one could have an outsize impact on the rest. U.S. stocks have been the best performing asset class in the world for three years running, returning an average of nearly 16% annually.  This year is on track to top 20%.  To get here, lot of things have gone right and almost nothing wrong.  That hardly ever lasts.

This means it is time to get out of the US stock market.  Right?

Wait a minute…

Another Wall Street Journal article one day later, “Are Stock Prices Dangerously High?” (2), tells a different tale.

This article says:  It Depends How You Look at It.  These three P/E measurements are alarming. So why hasn’t it mattered?

Hot-Stock Rally Tests the Patience of a Choosy Lot: Value Investors.  Value funds around the globe are on track to post their worst performance since before the financial crisis.  U.S. stocks have set record after record this year, pleasing investors who might have expected a post election slump.  However, have prices soared to levels that are too risky?

Today, the P/E for the stocks in the S&P 500 index is about 24, meaning investors pay $24 for every $1 in corporate earnings. That’s quite high compared with the historical average of about 15 or 16, but not so high compared with some periods of crisis in the past—more than 40 around the dot-com bubble and above 100 after the financial crisis broke. To return to average, prices would have to tumble or earnings would have to skyrocket.

Some experts note, however, that it isn’t unusual, or particularly risky,  for the P/E to be somewhat higher than average when interest rates and inflation are unusually low.

So is the market going to fall or not?

We are not asking the right question…

These Golden Rules of Investing show us why:

#1: There is always something we do not know.   The only certainty is that periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.

#2:  Invest in inexpensive equities that are paying a reasonable return.  Expect 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global nominal GDP growth and long term earnings’ growth plus risk premium.  To attain higher growth, you must either increase risk or trust luck.

#3: The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time.  This short term process leaves too little time to analyze and forecast.  Markets move short term based on emotion and are unpredictable.  Markets move long term based on value and are predictable.  Place a higher priority on numbers rather than good stories.  Make your routine repeatable, so good shares can be found again and again.

We have 24 hours a day, a limited commodity that erodes minute by minute.  How will we spend it?  Time is potentially the most important factor in our life, so it makes sense to a repeatable routine that finds good shares again and again and takes as little time as possible.

Value funds around the globe are on track to post their worst performance since before the financial crisis.

The only certainty is that periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.

We have seen a period of high performance in the US market.  We have seen a period of low performance in good value stock markets.  It’s time to save time and invest in country ETFs of good value markets.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: This market can’t go on much longer

(2) www.wsj.com: Are stock prices dangerously high. It depends on how you look at it

50 Year Advantage

garyheadshot

My 50 years of investing experience helped subscribers in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) recently earn 98.68% profit in eight months without investing an extra penny.  Now there is something bigger.

In November 2015, silver had dropped to a special low price.  The gold-silver spread had reached a historic high.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF ( symbol “SLV”) was priced at US$13.60 per share.

The British pound parity was US$1.54 US dollars per share.

We issued a special report (Silver Dip 2015) to Pi subscribers showing how a 30 year cycle and the risk reward ratio had tipped towards using a British pound margin account to invest in the silver ETF “SLV”.

Here is what happened to an investment of US$10,000 with an additional margin loan of  6,500 pounds.  The 6,500 pounds were converted to US$10,000.  The total $20,000 was invested in SLV at US$13.60.  This purchased 1,470 shares of the “SLV” ETF.

Eight months later “SLV” shares reached $19.22.  Those shares were worth US$28,253.

Paying off the 6,500 pound loan cost only US$8,325 because the pound, due in part to Brexit, had crashed to $1.29.  After the loan payoff, the balance was US$19,868.

The profit in eight months was $9,868 or 98.68% of the original $10,000 invested.

When a new profit potential came up I updated the report into “Silver Dip 2017” which I would like to send you.  See below how to get this $39.95 value FREE.

I have been writing and speaking about international investments for five decades so this is not the first time Pi subscribers made profits off leverage.  Earlier, subscribers received a report entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” that showed how shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro could also bring a fast profit with minimal risk.

What a ride!  The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in just three monthsThe Dow Jones Industrial average rose 9.5% in the same period.  Those who borrowed yen and invested in the Dow Jones industrial average earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5% in three months.

Earlier, we helped readers earn up to 266.3% in one year using Swiss franc and yen margin loans.  Then we recommended getting out of all the shares and investing in Danish & Swedish bonds before the 2007 to 2009 global stock market crash.  Again and again we have helped subscribers spot special, profit generating distortions that are risk adverse when an investor has time to let the opportunity correct.

Yet our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value.  Our purpose is to save time as we invest for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with mathematical science can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.

Research published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of using this ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at this Golden Ratio of 1.6 to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses this in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

Order the Silver Dip here for $39.95

Or see below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

Opportunity Emerging


Emerging stock markets are offering good value as developed market prices have swollen.

Here is an excerpt from the latest Purposeful investing Course (Pi) Emerging market update.

This is Keppler Asset Management’s Recent Developments & Outlook of emerging markets

After a strong performance last year, emerging markets equities have continued to perform well in the first half of 2017.

Currency movements, however, turned out to be more important than stock price changes lately.  In the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (ND) gained 6.6 % in local currencies and 6.3 % in US dollars.  Due to the strong recovery of the euro, however, it lost 0.3 % in euros.

Year-to date, the global emerging markets benchmark index returned 14.8 % in local currencies, 18.4 % in US dollars and 9.5 % in euros.

Among the three regional indices, Asia returned 9.1 %; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 0.7 % and Latin America declined 0.4 % in the last three months.

In the first half of 2017, Asia gained 19.7 %, EMEA was up 0.6 % and Latin America advanced 7.2 %.  Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Pakistan was upgraded from Frontier Market status to join the MSCI Emerging Markets Index on June 1, 2017. Since no market was downgraded, there are now 24 markets included in the MSCI EM Index.

Eighteen markets advanced in the second quarter and six markets (including Pakistan) declined.

The best performing markets were Greece (+25.5 %), Turkey (+15.4 %) and Korea (+12.8 %). Qatar (-10.4 %), Russia (-6.2 %) and Brazil (-2.6 %) performed worst last quarter.

Year-to-date, twenty-one markets advanced and three markets declined. The best performing markets in the first half of 2017 were Turkey (+32.4 %), China (+25.5 %) and Korea (+22.0 %). Russia (-16.2 %), Qatar (-8.7 %) and Pakistan (-3.9 %) came in last.

In the second quarter 2017, the Top Value Model Portfolio advanced 4.7 % in local currencies and 5.3 % in US dollars but declined 1.3 % in euros.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio gained 12.0 % in local currencies, 15.9 % in US dollars and 7.2 % in euros, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by between 2.3 and 2.8 percentage points, depending on the currency.

There was no change in our country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains eleven markets — Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Turkey — at equal weights.

According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI World Index at the end of June 2017, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler

Based on our analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 21 % compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.  Furthermore, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 20 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by 37 % versus the MSCI World Index.  The outlook for further outperformance of emerging market equities versus the developed markets in general and of the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains favorable.

Michael Keppler
New York, July 17, 2017

That review shows that emerging markets overall are a much better value than developed markets overall.  Here’s  a more important question.  How much better value are good value emerging markets versus good value developed markets?

Let’s compare.

Price to book for emerging markets is 1.37.  Develop good markets are selling at 1.47 price to book.   The good value emerging market PE ratio is 12.9 compared to 19 for developed markets and the dividend yield 3.35% compared to 3.31% for emerging markets.

keppler

These numbers suggest that both developed and emerging good value markets are much less expensive than the overall world index and way cheaper than the bloated US index.   At a price to book of 3.13, the US market is selling at more than double the price to book of both developed and emerging good value markets.

With this in mind, I have not changed my developed market to emerging market ratios.

Gary

Disaster When the Other Shoe Drops

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

There is inherent disaster building in rising markets… especially now.  Don’t wait until its too late.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all rising at the same time.  Almost everyone feels good.  We should not.  You and I should not be like most investors, because the clock of economic reckoning is ticking though no wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Recently the Dow Industrial and NASDAQ had record high closes.  Bitcoin has tripled this year.  Gold reached its highest price in seven months.  This rise of all asset classes is creating distortions that when corrected will set most investors back for years.

Simply put, the good time feelings are pushing prices too high.

Complacency in the markets, as the U.S. moves into the late stages of the economic growth cycle, destroys value.   Share prices will drop.  The only question is when.  Signs such as rising interest rates, declines in housing, along with lower auto and retail sales suggest that the slow down may be sooner rather than later.  The price of assets will fall.

There were a couple of  warning signals yesterday.  

Dollar weakness is a sign.

A Wall Street journal article yesterday “Dollar Gets Squeezed From All Sides” says: Greenback is down 5.6% this year, its worst two-quarter decline since 2011, as investors see more growth overseas

The dollar suffered through its worst stretch in six years during the first half of 2017, as investors turned more confident that economic recoveries around the world are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S.

The currency lost 1% last week against a basket of major peers tracked by The Wall Street Journal, bringing its decline for the year to 5.6%. That is the dollar’s largest two-quarter percentage decline since 2011.

A weak US dollar can draw investors out of the US and into other markets. The shift will cause a US market crash.

The 1987 Secular Cycle is near its end. 

Secular cycles in the market tend to run 30 years. History shows that markets run on recurrent patterns of change.  There are periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation and decline.  Cyclical market cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years.  The last big shift was in 1987.

Another WSJ article yesterday “For Whom the Bell Tolls, Sell” asks: Is this a bull market or a mania? You never know for sure, except in retrospect.

You think this market’s crazy?  One day in early 1987, with Wall Street humming, a meeting after trading closed involved several cases of champagne. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had breached 2000 that day, a cause for celebration. A week and a half later, more champagne was ordered when the average passed 2100. Then again a few weeks later for 2200. Eventually my boss stopped buying bubbly when breaking records became the norm.

On Friday, Oct. 16, 1987, the average dropped 108 points. The market truly crashed the next Monday, dropping 508 points, or 22.6%. In retrospect, there had been signs all over the place.  How did everyone miss them? Well, as the old Wall Street adage goes, no one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.

Yet everyone wants to stay at the party.

No one knows when the global economic clock will strike midnight.  However, there is a way to be sure that our investments and savings will survive when the clock strikes twelve.

Here is what to do.  Choose investments based on markets instead of shares, diversify in value, rely on financial rather than economic news and keep investing simple, easy and at a low cost.

Diversify in value markets, not shares.  One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of most of the shares in a good value stock market.

 

The importance of easy, transparent and inexpensive.  Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  Another tactic is to invest so you have staying power.  This way you’ll never be caught short and have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.  This also means you’ll have enough faith in a strategy to stick to the plan.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based on financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (who also happen to be friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

pifolios

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 32.22%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

As of mid-2017 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get More Bang Out of Risk


The chart below shows one of the biggest investing ripoffs of the last 100 years.  Since the 2009 recession, interest rates for the US dollar have been almost zero despite the fact that it has been proven that this is a poor way to stimulate the economy.  Japanese yen interest rates were depressed for over a decade without any good results.

The truth is that zero interest helps the rich and hurts the middle class.

federal reserve

Click on images to enlarge.   Interest rates from the Federal Reserve website (1)

Finally after eight years, US dollar interest rates are rising.

effective fed rate

Fed Funds Rate chart at Ycharts (2)

Have you seen the interest rates on your deposits go up?

The Wall Street Journal article “Want a Higher Interest Rate on Your Bank Account? Tough Luck” (3) helps explain why.

The article says: The Fed has been raising short-term rates, yet many banks are still paying peanuts to depositors.

Banks have been dealing with interest-rate cycles and depositors for decades, but a number of factors, both psychological and technological, make this time of rising rates different. A decade of near-zero rates, more competition from online firms, less loyalty from customers and new capital rules, among other factors, are making preparations more difficult.

“We’ve never really seen this movie before,” Marianne Lake, chief financial officer of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., told investors recently.

A hundred year relationship between returns on deposits, bonds and stock market growth has been distorted for almost a decade.   Wise investors are asking “why” and “how will this affect future markets?”

To answer this questions, we should ask, “Who benefits most from low and zero interest rates?”

Governments and big business gain most because the cost of their debt drops and stays low.  Big borrowers tend to borrow more.  (Why not when it costs nothing?)  The middle class man in the street and small business finds it harder to save without extra risk.

Owners of big business also gain because low interest rates force savers to become equity investors.  This drives up the price of shares and makes the big shareholders incredibly rich.  Higher share prices inflate balance sheets, allows them to borrow even more and provides liquidity to unload overpriced shares!

The financial industry also gains because low interest rates drive small investors into an unstable, over priced stock market.

Research has shown that more than half of all American households will not have enough retirement income to maintain the living standards they were accustomed to before retirement.

This fact comes in the face of last week’s report by the Social Security trustees who say “The Social Security trust fund will be exhausted in 17 years and Medicare’s main fund in 11 years, according to the latest estimates”.

What should we do?  The standard answer is “Save more money and invest”.  

This recommendation glosses over the fact that Wall Street is bleeding savers dry.  The real problem is that investors ARE NOT earning their fair share of market returns.”   Actively managed mutual funds, in which many workers invest their retirement savings, are enormously costly and have not kept pace.

Where is safe to invest?

The answer is “Every type of investment has risk”.  The key is to be properly paid for taking it and to keep costs low.

Here is a basic fact that can help you get the maximum bang out of your savings for the lowest risk .

Industrialized economies seem unable to increase their output at any rate better than about 3% percent a year on a sustained basis.  This seems to be a universal standard of human evolution.

This is a huge fact as it means we should not expect major economies to grow faster than about 3%.

This is a baseline that can help us sort out whether an investment has extra or too little risk premium because the baseline for safe savings than should be about the same as industrial growth…3% … if the money supply is keeping pace with the economy.

Bank accounts (especially if government guaranteed) and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments.  A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%.  So if a bank account or government bond pays less… in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better.

Yet the fact is that bank accounts will not really make money.  They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

Knowing this, rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk… which cannot be done, we can assess risk and what we are paid to take it instead by asking:

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions do the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

To get real growth requires taking risk.  If an investment appears to be less safe than the safest (that pays 3%) the less safe investment will pay more than 3%.  The extra payment is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe.  Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier.  Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks.  Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%… if they are issued in their own currencies.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

To attain higher growth than 7% to 10%, investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

These facts are good to know because the bulk of investors are almost always wrong in the short term.  Most investors always try to avoid risk.  Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe.  This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Value investors can use mathematical analysis to spot trends created by the bulk of investors trying to do what they cannot… avoid risk.

The current low interest rates in the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are unprecedented and have been for almost a decade. 

These low rates have created all types of distortions that have been building far too long.  The answer to cashing on the correction is to find low cost ways to invest in value… and wait.   The return to long term fundamentals will provide maximum return with minimum risk.

Gary

Disaster When the Other Shoe Drops

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

There is inherent disaster building in rising markets… especially now.  Don’t wait until its too late.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all rising at the same time.  Almost everyone feels good.  We should not.  You and I should not be like most investors, because the clock of economic reckoning is ticking though no wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Recently the Dow Industrial and NASDAQ had record high closes.  Bitcoin has tripled this year.  Gold reached its highest price in seven months.  This rise of all asset classes is creating distortions that when corrected will set most investors back for years.

Simply put, the good time feelings are pushing prices too high.

Complacency in the markets, as the U.S. moves into the late stages of the economic growth cycle, destroys value.   Share prices will drop.  The only question is when.  Signs such as rising interest rates, declines in housing, along with lower auto and retail sales suggest that the slow down may be sooner rather than later.  The price of assets will fall.

There were a couple of  warning signals yesterday.  

Dollar weakness is a sign.

A Wall Street journal article yesterday “Dollar Gets Squeezed From All Sides” says: Greenback is down 5.6% this year, its worst two-quarter decline since 2011, as investors see more growth overseas

The dollar suffered through its worst stretch in six years during the first half of 2017, as investors turned more confident that economic recoveries around the world are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S.

The currency lost 1% last week against a basket of major peers tracked by The Wall Street Journal, bringing its decline for the year to 5.6%. That is the dollar’s largest two-quarter percentage decline since 2011.

A weak US dollar can draw investors out of the US and into other markets. The shift will cause a US market crash.

The 1987 Secular Cycle is near its end. 

Secular cycles in the market tend to run 30 years. History shows that markets run on recurrent patterns of change.  There are periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation and decline.  Cyclical market cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years.  The last big shift was in 1987.

Another WSJ article yesterday “For Whom the Bell Tolls, Sell” asks: Is this a bull market or a mania? You never know for sure, except in retrospect.

You think this market’s crazy?  One day in early 1987, with Wall Street humming, a meeting after trading closed involved several cases of champagne. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had breached 2000 that day, a cause for celebration. A week and a half later, more champagne was ordered when the average passed 2100. Then again a few weeks later for 2200. Eventually my boss stopped buying bubbly when breaking records became the norm.

On Friday, Oct. 16, 1987, the average dropped 108 points. The market truly crashed the next Monday, dropping 508 points, or 22.6%. In retrospect, there had been signs all over the place.  How did everyone miss them? Well, as the old Wall Street adage goes, no one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.

Yet everyone wants to stay at the party.

No one knows when the global economic clock will strike midnight.  However, there is a way to be sure that our investments and savings will survive when the clock strikes twelve.

Here is what to do.  Choose investments based on markets instead of shares, diversify in value, rely on financial rather than economic news and keep investing simple, easy and at a low cost.

Diversify in value markets, not shares.  One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of most of the shares in a good value stock market.

 

The importance of easy, transparent and inexpensive.  Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  Another tactic is to invest so you have staying power.  This way you’ll never be caught short and have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.  This also means you’ll have enough faith in a strategy to stick to the plan.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based on financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (who also happen to be friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

pifolios

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 32.22%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

As of mid-2017 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

(1) Federal Funds Chart

(2) Effective federal funds rate chart

(3) www.wsj.com:  Want a higher interest rate on your bank account tough luck

 

Special Canadian Value


How does the Canadian Stock Market compare to the US markets?  Yesterday’s message looked at the Concept Conversion Trick (1) and how the American Dream has become the Canadian Dream.  Canada’s middle class earns more, works less hours and lives longer than the middle class in the US.  Canadians have a cradle to grave health care system and an excellent education system.  Year after year, Canada scores in the top 10 happiest countries in the world.

So, let’s compare the Canadian Stock Market to the US market using a mathematical, good value approach.

The Canadian Market is not ranked as a good value developed market by Keppler Asset Management, but it has so many good value qualities that I personally added this market to my portfolio, using the iShares MSCI Canada Country ETF (symbol EWC).

In January 2017, a Purposeful investing Course update looked at some reasons why the Canadian Market offered special opportunity.  This update examines reasons why that good value still exists.

Over the last six months, the Canadian ETF (EWC) has risen 3.2% as shown in the Finance.yahoo.com chart below.

This ETF is a passive fund that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Canada Index.  The fund invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index which consists of stocks traded primarily on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

yahoo.com

The S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ indices (red, green and purple) have outperformed the Canadian Index in these last six months.

However, long term, the Canadian MSCI Index has strongly outperformed both the Dow and S&P and is about equal in growth to the NASDAQ index (in red).

yahoo.com

The strong Canadian performance in spite a weakening of the Canadian dollar.  This means that Canadian share performance has been even stronger than the chart comparison suggests.  Canadian shares rose with extra strength to make up for the currency loss.

In the last six months, however, the US dollar has started to fall versus the Canadian dollar.  This could give the Canadian market an extra boost in US dollar terms.

yahoo.com

We can also see strength in the Canadian dollar at the Economist’s review of “Trade Balances, Budget Balances and Interest Rates” (1).  The US dollar currently has the advantage on interest and trade balance but these factors can shift quite quickly compared to budget balance.  The Canadians have a much better budget balance position.  Simply put, the Canadian government creates less debt in relation to GDP than the US government does.

economist.com

We can also see from Keppler’s basic analysis that Canadian shares overall represent much better value.

keppler

keppler

keppler

Canadian shares are selling at 2 times book compared to 3.09 in the US.  Price earnings is  22.5 compared to 23.9 and the 2.84%  average dividend yield is much stronger than America’s 2.01%.

The trending math we follow at Tradestops.com suggests that Canada (or EWC at least) is still in a buy mode.

tradestops.com

Tradestops gave an entry alert a year ago in July 2016.  The stock indicator shows that the upwards trend remains.  The stock has a low volatility ratio of 14.33% and currently the stop price is $23.74.

You can learn how to use Tradestops.com below. (2)

Should we invest in the Canadian Market?   The Canadian Market is a well regulated market, in a safe country with sane politics.  The numerous suggestions above suggest that this market is in a rising trend short term and has been a solid market over a long period of time.

Over the last six months a poor value market (the US) has outperformed a neutral to good value market (Canada).  Eventually the fundamentals of math and common sense will turn this trend around.  Logic leads us to expect that, given time, the Canadian market will do well in relationship to the US market.  This does not guarantee great performance as all markets could fall.

The final decision of whether Canada represents a good place to store value for you depends on how much risk and what time horizons suit your nature and circumstances.  There is risk in every investment, but we get to decide how much risk we take and investing in the Canadian MSCI looks as if a sound investment with minimum risk at this time.

Gary

(1) Learn more about Tradestops.com here

(2) www.economist.com: Trade exchange rates budget balances and interest rates

Gary

Disaster When the Other Shoe Drops

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

There is inherent disaster building in rising markets… especially now.  Don’t wait until its too late.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all rising at the same time.  Almost everyone feels good.  We should not.  You and I should not be like most investors, because the clock of economic reckoning is ticking though no wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Recently the Dow Industrial and NASDAQ had record high closes.  Bitcoin has tripled this year.  Gold reached its highest price in seven months.  This rise of all asset classes is creating distortions that when corrected will set most investors back for years.

Simply put, the good time feelings are pushing prices too high.

Complacency in the markets, as the U.S. moves into the late stages of the economic growth cycle, destroys value.   Share prices will drop.  The only question is when.  Signs such as rising interest rates, declines in housing, along with lower auto and retail sales suggest that the slow down may be sooner rather than later.  The price of assets will fall.

There were a couple of  warning signals yesterday.  

Dollar weakness is a sign.

A Wall Street journal article yesterday “Dollar Gets Squeezed From All Sides” says: Greenback is down 5.6% this year, its worst two-quarter decline since 2011, as investors see more growth overseas

The dollar suffered through its worst stretch in six years during the first half of 2017, as investors turned more confident that economic recoveries around the world are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S.

The currency lost 1% last week against a basket of major peers tracked by The Wall Street Journal, bringing its decline for the year to 5.6%. That is the dollar’s largest two-quarter percentage decline since 2011.

A weak US dollar can draw investors out of the US and into other markets. The shift will cause a US market crash.

The 1987 Secular Cycle is near its end. 

Secular cycles in the market tend to run 30 years. History shows that markets run on recurrent patterns of change.  There are periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation and decline.  Cyclical market cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years.  The last big shift was in 1987.

Another WSJ article yesterday “For Whom the Bell Tolls, Sell” asks: Is this a bull market or a mania? You never know for sure, except in retrospect.

You think this market’s crazy?  One day in early 1987, with Wall Street humming, a meeting after trading closed involved several cases of champagne. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had breached 2000 that day, a cause for celebration. A week and a half later, more champagne was ordered when the average passed 2100. Then again a few weeks later for 2200. Eventually my boss stopped buying bubbly when breaking records became the norm.

On Friday, Oct. 16, 1987, the average dropped 108 points. The market truly crashed the next Monday, dropping 508 points, or 22.6%. In retrospect, there had been signs all over the place.  How did everyone miss them? Well, as the old Wall Street adage goes, no one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.

Yet everyone wants to stay at the party.

No one knows when the global economic clock will strike midnight.  However, there is a way to be sure that our investments and savings will survive when the clock strikes twelve.

Here is what to do.  Choose investments based on markets instead of shares, diversify in value, rely on financial rather than economic news and keep investing simple, easy and at a low cost.

Diversify in value markets, not shares.  One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of most of the shares in a good value stock market.

 

The importance of easy, transparent and inexpensive.  Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  Another tactic is to invest so you have staying power.  This way you’ll never be caught short and have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.  This also means you’ll have enough faith in a strategy to stick to the plan.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based on financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (who also happen to be friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

pifolios

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 32.22%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

As of mid-2017 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

More ETF Risk


There are pros and cons to investing in ETFs.

After almost 50 years of tracking global investments and currencies, I was fed up with the process of finding good investments.  I had made some small fortunes, yes.  And I had some disasters too, but I was pretty good at it.  I was pretty good at the process.  Investors all around the world depended on my decisions.  I had even managed a portfolio of millions for a European bank.

Some facts, however, had become clear.  First, I realized I was spending too much of my time sitting in front of a computer analyzing numbers.  Second, the process was no longer fulfilling, satisfying or fun. Third, the process took a lot of time.

When those who reach 70, time becomes more valuable.  At least that is how it seems.

I started looking for a better way to look after my savings and wealth and came to the conclusion that investing in Country ETFs in stock markets that were undervalued gave me as good a chance of making profit as anything, but took far less time and cost much less in fees.

That’s when I created the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  I approached three colleagues, who were brilliant mathematicians and equity and market analysts.  They had passed the test of time and proven their investing skills.  I asked them for help putting together a course that would help me and others gain diversification and extra profit potential without spending too much time in the process.

The course is built around the idea that Country ETFs can be the core of a portfolio because they offer an easy way to diversify in good value markets.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs is lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

We have had good response to this course but recently a Pi subscriber sent this note.

There is a potential ETF risk and a subscriber of Pi sent this question.

“Gary, Here’s another newsletter which may be of interest.  The author has recently been writing about his concern regarding ETF’s and “passive investing”.  Would be interested to hear your thoughts.”

That other newsletter said.  “When ETFs sell, who will buy?”  The ETFs of the world may quickly begin trading below their actual net asset values (NAV).  This is called price discovery, and the arbitrageurs will not be slow to take advantage of that difference.  This means the indexes will drop much faster than they have gone up.

Here is my reply:  First, we should look at a slightly bigger picture.  All mutual funds face a couple of problems in collapsing markets.  In fact, regular mutual funds have more problems than ETFs.

The first problem is liquidity.  Typical mutual funds must redeem shares from their own cash reserves or the sale of investments.  If a market crashes and a mutual fund is hit with overwhelming redemptions, they either have adequate cash, must borrow to redeem or must sell shares.   If a manager is any good, he or she will normally not want to sell assets during a panic crash.  Market dips are the time when value investors buy not sell!

In other words, a normal mutual fund’s ability to invest may be inhibited at the very time it’s best to buy.

ETFs are not open ended funds so they do not have to redeem shares during bad times.  The shares are bought and sold on the stock market.  This means that ETFs normally have greater liquidity than normal mutual funds in the most difficult times.  They can be sold anytime the market is working.  Plus the fund managers have more ability to invest in bad times because they simply track the related index, whether it is falling or not.

ETFs, like all shares sold on a market, are likely to drop in a market collapse, especially if the correction is systemic.

However, I personally stick to ETFs as my equity of choice because they are so easy and so diversified.  This allows me to spend my time doing other things I enjoy to have a more fulfilled life.

My experience of investing from London many decades ago, suggests that the theory behind this ETF problem does not prove out in reality.

Long before the words ETF or the idea ETF were even thought, the English have had Closed-end Mutual Funds (called unit trusts).  These funds are remarkably similar to ETFs as they have a fixed number of issued shares traded on an exchange.  They generally do not issue new shares after the close of the subscription period.

Because the supply of shares is limited, the traded price of the closed-end fund will rise and fall depending on supply and demand, just like shares of other companies traded on an exchange.  Closed-end funds often trade at a discount to their Net Asset Value.  Other times they trade at a premium.

Value investors look for these trusts that trade at a discount.  Warren Buffet explained the reason when he compared the difference in a market’s reaction to what consumers do when McDonalds lowers the price of its burgers.  Consumers buy more good value burgers.  Yet when stock markets lower the price of  good shares, the market panics and sells.

Here is what almost always happens when closed end unit trusts sell at too great a discount.  Value investors step in and buy the closed ended fund, either in recognition of the extra value or to wind it up and sell the assets for a profit.

The question we should ask is not whether ETFs will remain stable in difficult times.  No share remains immune to crashing prices if a market is fearful enough.

The more important question is how do we regulate our investments so we are liquid enough to invest, not sell, when markets are down.  If we have prepared our positions correctly the question of getting a good price during a downturn never comes up because we will be buying, not selling.

The best time to invest is when shares or a market are in trouble.  Here are some quotes by Warren Buffet that address this issue:

“The best time to buy a company is when it’s in trouble. – The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.”

“Be greedy when others are fearful.  – Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”

“Stocks have always come out of crises. – Over the long term, the stock market news will be good.  In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

“Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards – so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.”

We should be aware of the pros and cons of our investments, but it is more important to create resilience in our portfolios and investing habits so we can hang on and even increase positions in down times.

If we have good value shares, the only time to sell is when we find better investments or need cash.

If you are spending too much of your time sitting in front of a computer and the process is no longer fulfilling, satisfying or fun, I recommend that you read below how to save time as you increase the safety of your investments as expand profit potential at the same time.

Gary

50 Year Advantage

garyheadshot

My 50 years of investing experience helped subscribers in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) recently earn 98.68% profit in eight months without investing an extra penny.  Now there is something bigger.

In November 2015, silver had dropped to a special low price.  The gold-silver spread had reached a historic high.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF ( symbol “SLV”) was priced at US$13.60 per share.

The British pound parity was US$1.54 US dollars per share.

We issued a special report (Silver Dip 2015) to Pi subscribers showing how a 30 year cycle and the risk reward ratio had tipped towards using a British pound margin account to invest in the silver ETF “SLV”.

Here is what happened to an investment of US$10,000 with an additional margin loan of  6,500 pounds.  The 6,500 pounds were converted to US$10,000.  The total $20,000 was invested in SLV at US$13.60.  This purchased 1,470 shares of the “SLV” ETF.

Eight months later “SLV” shares reached $19.22.  Those shares were worth US$28,253.

Paying off the 6,500 pound loan cost only US$8,325 because the pound, due in part to Brexit, had crashed to $1.29.  After the loan payoff, the balance was US$19,868.

The profit in eight months was $9,868 or 98.68% of the original $10,000 invested.

When a new profit potential came up I updated the report into “Silver Dip 2017” which I would like to send you.  See below how to get this $39.95 value FREE.

I have been writing and speaking about international investments for five decades so this is not the first time Pi subscribers made profits off leverage.  Earlier, subscribers received a report entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” that showed how shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro could also bring a fast profit with minimal risk.

What a ride!  The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in just three monthsThe Dow Jones Industrial average rose 9.5% in the same period.  Those who borrowed yen and invested in the Dow Jones industrial average earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5% in three months.

Earlier, we helped readers earn up to 266.3% in one year using Swiss franc and yen margin loans.  Then we recommended getting out of all the shares and investing in Danish & Swedish bonds before the 2007 to 2009 global stock market crash.  Again and again we have helped subscribers spot special, profit generating distortions that are risk adverse when an investor has time to let the opportunity correct.

Yet our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value.  Our purpose is to save time as we invest for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with mathematical science can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.

Research published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of using this ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at this Golden Ratio of 1.6 to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses this in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

Order the Silver Dip here for $39.95

Or see below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

Don’t Ignore the Complacency Factor


Disaster When the Other Shoe Drops

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

There is inherent disaster building in rising markets… especially now.  Don’t wait until its too late.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all rising at the same time.  Almost everyone feels good.  We should not.  You and I should not be like most investors, because the clock of economic reckoning is ticking though no wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Recently the Dow Industrial and NASDAQ had record high closes.  Bitcoin has tripled this year.  Gold reached its highest price in seven months.  This rise of all asset classes is creating distortions that when corrected will set most investors back for years.

Simply put, the good time feelings are pushing prices too high.

Complacency in the markets, as the U.S. moves into the late stages of the economic growth cycle, destroys value.   Share prices will drop.  The only question is when.  Signs such as rising interest rates, declines in housing, along with lower auto and retail sales suggest that the slow down may be sooner rather than later.  The price of assets will fall.

There were a couple of  warning signals yesterday.  

Dollar weakness is a sign.

A Wall Street journal article yesterday “Dollar Gets Squeezed From All Sides” says: Greenback is down 5.6% this year, its worst two-quarter decline since 2011, as investors see more growth overseas

The dollar suffered through its worst stretch in six years during the first half of 2017, as investors turned more confident that economic recoveries around the world are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S.

The currency lost 1% last week against a basket of major peers tracked by The Wall Street Journal, bringing its decline for the year to 5.6%. That is the dollar’s largest two-quarter percentage decline since 2011.

A weak US dollar can draw investors out of the US and into other markets. The shift will cause a US market crash.

The 1987 Secular Cycle is near its end. 

Secular cycles in the market tend to run 30 years. History shows that markets run on recurrent patterns of change.  There are periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation and decline.  Cyclical market cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years.  The last big shift was in 1987.

Another WSJ article yesterday “For Whom the Bell Tolls, Sell” asks: Is this a bull market or a mania? You never know for sure, except in retrospect.

You think this market’s crazy?  One day in early 1987, with Wall Street humming, a meeting after trading closed involved several cases of champagne. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had breached 2000 that day, a cause for celebration. A week and a half later, more champagne was ordered when the average passed 2100. Then again a few weeks later for 2200. Eventually my boss stopped buying bubbly when breaking records became the norm.

On Friday, Oct. 16, 1987, the average dropped 108 points. The market truly crashed the next Monday, dropping 508 points, or 22.6%. In retrospect, there had been signs all over the place.  How did everyone miss them? Well, as the old Wall Street adage goes, no one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.

Yet everyone wants to stay at the party.

No one knows when the global economic clock will strike midnight.  However, there is a way to be sure that our investments and savings will survive when the clock strikes twelve.

Here is what to do.  Choose investments based on markets instead of shares, diversify in value, rely on financial rather than economic news and keep investing simple, easy and at a low cost.

Diversify in value markets, not shares.  One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of most of the shares in a good value stock market.

 

The importance of easy, transparent and inexpensive.  Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  Another tactic is to invest so you have staying power.  This way you’ll never be caught short and have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.  This also means you’ll have enough faith in a strategy to stick to the plan.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based on financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (who also happen to be friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

pifolios

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 32.22%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

As of mid-2017 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary