Tag Archive | "Value investing"

Nothing Lasts Forever


Our friend Eric Roseman sent the note below that offers a FREE report on crisis investing because no market trend lasts forever.

Nothing lasts for ever.  Not good times, and not bad times.

ENR Asset anagement

In the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, I thought the financial system would implode amid a deep freeze in bank credit and collapsing stock prices.

Eventually, the financial press coined this devastating financial event as ‘The Great Recession.’

In reality, 2008 wasn’t a Great Recession. It was a soft global depression, rescued by the incredible unconventional workings of the Federal Reserve and other global central banks to rescue the financial system at any cost. And so it was rescued.

Almost a decade later, the total cost of quantitative easing (QE) from the world’s three largest central banks (Fed, ECB and BoJ) is just under $15 trillion-dollars, according to Yardeni Research. Nothing of this comparable size has ever been experimented in the modern world and to-date, we still don’t know how central banks will unwind their bloated balance-sheets, if at all.

But one thing is certain.

We will encounter another economic recession one day.

It’s a 100% probability.

Economic expansions don’t last indefinitely and this one is already the second-longest in duration at a combined 107 months — and counting.

Making matters potentially worse, the Federal Reserve has been mostly responsible for triggering every major recession since 1913; with the Fed still tightening, inflation gradually rising and consumer sentiment near all-time highs, risk-based assets like stocks, real estate and most bonds are vulnerable to a major price correction.

Stocks have more than tripled off their March 2009 lows and are fetching their second-most expensive valuation in history, according to the Shiller-CAE P/E Ratio. At the very least, stocks won’t repeat the performance of the past decade because interest rates are rising, central banks are increasingly withdrawing liquidity and credit has mushroomed the world over reaching fresh records almost a monthly basis.

Bonds, which have acted as a reliable ‘safe haven’ asset when stocks plunge since 1998, have begun to show a positive correlation to equities again for the first time since the 1970s. That’s a bad omen because if stocks AND bonds decline over an extended period, what’s left in the financial markets is portfolio destruction because of their combined weight in most institutional products, including pension funds, ETFs, mutual funds etc.

In our view, a bear market is highly likely over the next 12-24 months.

Are you prepared?

To help you prepare better I would like to offer you a free report. The ENR Crisis Investing Portfolio Report.

This is a good time to hedge your unrealized stock-market gains with a portfolio constructed to appreciate when bear market mayhem strikes.

The report will help you understand how to hedge risk, how our flagship managed accounts in 2008 lost just under 5% versus losses of more than 40% for global benchmarks.

We actually gained 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to a 22% crash for the MSCI World Index.

Better to be prepared than sorry.

Order the FREE ENR Crisis Investing Portfolio Report here.

erci roseman

Sincerely,

Eric N. Roseman

Live Long & Prosper More

One of the most frequent questions readers ask is “How can I make my savings safer but also sufficient?”

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a good value strategy that makes sure they do not lose, but increase their wealth again and again.

What is this strategy?  It is a good value strategy based on three tactics.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses to time to take advantage of value.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends): Michael Keppler, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer (for currency positions) and Richard Smith, PhD (for trailing stop alerts).

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.   To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy, it is necessary to construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the overall portfolio.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs that are similar to index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.  More about the gap in a moment.

Learn how to create profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire. By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

To help overcome this gap, we continually test the Pifolio, created with Keppler’s value analysis  with a unique trailing stop system created by our friend, Dr. Richard Smith.  His Smart Trailing Stops 2.0 alerts us to any of the shares which deviate from their good value status.

tradestops.com

Richard Smith received a PhD in Mathematical Systems Theory from New York State University, Binghamton, after completing his undergraduate degree at the University of California, Berkeley.  He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed!

Third, we test the portfolio again using a contrarian, protection oriented analysis of ENR Asset Management.

The nature of value investing is to be contrary.  Markets rise and fall, long term, guided by forces of nature.  Markets jump up and down, short term, based on the human whims of fear and greed.  Hot markets are almost always overbought and severely corrected markets are almost always oversold.  This makes contrarian investing really simple.  All you need to do is what most investors are not.  Right?

Nothing in investing is ever simple.  Doing whatever the majority of the market is not doing may expose you to good value stocks, but this process also reveals troubled companies.  Good value selectivity is also required to create an effective contrarian strategy.  Contrarian investors need tactics that weed out the dogs from the good value.

erci roseman

Eric Roseman manages ENR Global Contrarian Accounts.

ENR’s Contrarian Value Account buys distressed global, dividend-paying equities at near low prices.

The margins of safety the fund seeks is low price, low debt,  high cash-flow, strong global brands and strong management.

ENR looks for ‘event-driven’ change; spinoffs and macro catalysts that lead to change and revaluation.  For example shares in oil companies are being revalued now.

The fund only invests in stocks that pay dividends, have growth greater than inflation and are near or at 52-week low prices.

ENR’s flagship managed accounts in 2008 lost just under 5% versus losses of more than 40% for global benchmarks.

ENR accounts actually gained 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to a 22% crash for the MSCI World Index.

Then I add my fifty years of experience.

For example in the 1980s, I spotted a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value non US developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a powerful report “Silver Dip 2018”.  

The best way to protect and increase your savings and wealth is with a good value portfolio of equities.

Once this type of portfolio is in place, it can be enhanced with select speculations in precious metals when the price of these metals are in ideal conditions for speculation (as they are now).

No Cash is Required

The good value equity portfolio is used as collateral to make a conservative margin investment in precious metals ETFs.

Such leveraged speculations make the most sense when metals are at good value prices as gold is now.

I have spent substantial time researching to determine a fundamental real value for gold based on genuine purchasing power.  The math I use suggests that gold should be priced at about $1,350 and ounce at this time.  I work on the premise that above $1,350 an ounce, buying gold is a speculation that is not supported fundamentally.

I work on the theory that when gold is priced at $1,350, or below, it’s a good value for long term investing and thus for speculation.

Then I look at silver and platinum also to see if they are better value than gold (they both are better value now).

Next I check our trend advisors at Tradestops.com.

The Tradestops analysis shows that gold is in an upwards trend and has been for five months.

There are three main factors we watch at Tradestops.  First we look at the Stock State Indicator (SSI) of the share.  In the case of GLD below, the SSI is in the green zone.

The SSI is based on a mathematical analysis of a share’s price for the past 521 trading days.  An SSI in the green zone indicates that the stock is performing well and has not corrected below its recent high.  If a stock has not yet hit this price, it is still on an uptrend and safe to keep holding it.

gold

Tradestops analysis for the gold ETF symbol GLD.

The Tradestops analysis of SLV shows that this silver ETF is in a downwards trend and has been for the past one year.

An SSI in the red zone indicates that the stock has corrected more than its VQ% below a recent high. The stock is not behaving in a way that is usual based on its historical market trend.

silver

Tradestops analysis for the silver ETF symbol SLV.

This analysis suggests that this is a good time to speculate in gold, but not in silver.

However when the gold-silver price ratio is at 80 or above, history suggests that the price of silver will rise faster than the price of gold.

This means that right now the price of gold is a good value,  but silver may be an even better investment than gold.

The threshold we watch for is a spread of 80. When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history this suggests that silver is undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.

Rarely has the gold-silver price ratio been as high as 80, only three times in the past 36 years.

Last month the ratio shot up to 81!

However the May 21, 2018, 30 Day Gold-Silver Ratio chart from Kitco.com below shows that the gold-silver price ratio dropped back below 80 around May 1, 2018.   The chart shows that silver’s price has been rising faster than gold’s prcie and this is an early indicator that silver’s trend may be ready to reverse.

gold silver ratio

The next indicator we’ll look for is the Tradestops entry alert that shows the silver ETF’s price is on the rise.  Momentum is a key component of Tradestops Stock State Indicator (SSI) system.  The TradeStops Stock State Indicator (SSI) entry signal is a very conservative signal. It requires a stock to have made a bounce off the bottom of at least one Volatility Quotient (VQ) percentage and the stock’s trend must be strongly positive.

That entry signal will be strong suggestion that silver’s price is on the rise.

Good and Bad News When No Cash is Required

The big benefit to an overall portfolio’s return is that any profits created on margin purchases are pure profit that come with with no extra invested money.

Of course there is always something we do not know, and any losses are also pure losses so protective devices are also wise, especially stop losses which are explained in our report “The Silver Dip 2018.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.

You receive the Silver Dip 2018 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course.

Save $141.95

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi). The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2018” free for a total savings of $141.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the initial Purposeful Investing Course and “The Silver Dip 2018” right away, plus start receiving update lessons on a regular basis (Typically six lessons a month).

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep the initial course and “The Silver Dip 2108” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $141.95.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

 

 

 

The Hounds and the Toad


We should value value when we invest!

The hounds and the toads do not.

The goal of investing is to protect and to increase the purchasing power of our money.

Money is important because we live in the imagined orders of democracy and capitalism.  Money is the lubricant that keeps this system going round.

oranges

Fresh made orange marmalade.

Over the weekend Merri and I picked the shiners from our grove (oranges missed by our pickers ) from this year’s navel orange harvest at our Florida grove.  We made up a big batch of orange marmalade.  It’s great stuff (if you like thick, bitter and chunky) better than we can buy in the store or anywhere!

To go to the effort of preserving fruit requires that we trust the future… just as we must when we work for money.

Money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised, but money can only exist if we trust in the future.  That trust (in the future) is a totally unique human idea.

However,  you could never convince our hounds to give up their afternoon meal by promising two meals in the morning.

During the spring, our hounds are often seen standing, frozen in concentration.

dogs

Ma and Chuk stand, not moving, for hours.

The focus of their concentration are small toads that have moved into the pond.

dogs

The dogs stare.  The little toad stares back.

I tell all of them, the hounds and the toad, that they can all find better more productive things to do.  Their lives would be better if they did not waste all that time staring.

They do not listen, because they cannot imagine a future and cannot trust!

Humans can trust the future.  This fact has put us at the top of the food chain. 

Such trust has to be with a caveat though, since there is always something we do not know.

Take those navel oranges as examples.

We were not too bothered about having plenty left over to preserve because the price for our commercial crop was low.

A recent Wall Street Journal article on trade tensions (1) explain why/when it tells how Ford cars and California fruits are among the goods piling up at Chinese ports, the result of increased inspections that business groups say is China’s way of reminding the U.S. how important its market is to American exporters.

The article says:

Navel oranges, lemons and cherries from California, along with American apples, have been sitting at Chinese wharves for longer than normal as Chinese inspectors spend more time inspecting the fruits for pests and decays, U.S. trade groups said.

The Chinese pressure may have worked. This week the US has pulled back from imposing trade tariffs on China.  However, the pull back is too late to help prices for this year’s orange crop.  Who knows what will happen to the demand for apples, cherries and oranges next.

The potential for change is too great for us to trust any one specific future.

This is why we use value as the measure to choose where we invest.

This is why we created our Purposeful Investing system so we can use country ETFs that diversify into the MSCI Indices of the best valued stock markets around the world.

Value is the main consideration in our choices… not current momentum.

For example in April 2018, our value analyst Keppler Asset Management removed Austria from the Good Value BUY list.

We let our Purposeful investing subscribers know.  The chart below from www.finance.yahoo.com shows that this recommendation came at a pretty good time.  Yet timing was not the criteria Keppler used to suggest the change.

yahoo.com

Keppler was looking at value and wrote on April 6, 2018:  There were two changes in our country ratings last quarter:   After its exceptional rise of 43.2 % in the previous fourteen months and an outperformance vs. the MSCI World Index of 36.4 percentage points, Austria was  downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy” at the end of February.

Fundamentals there could not keep pace with the rising stock prices.

At the same time, Spain, with a dividend yield almost twice that of Austria, was upgraded to “Buy” due to superior fundamentals.

After the changes, the Top Value Model Portfolio holds ten “Buy”-rated markets:  Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom — at equal weights. According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performances.

There is always something we do not know, but having diversified our investments equally into the ten best value stock markets in the world, we have a good chance of protecting our wealth regardless of trade wars, the price of oranges and cherries and even if the hounds eat the frogs.

Learn more about value investing below.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: US goods stuck a China ports as tensions heat up

Special Freedoms


Merri and I always celebrate special freedoms in May, but this May is golden and extra special for us. 

This May is unique in our lives because my global investing and business adventures began, five decades ago, when on May 1, 1968 I left the USA and arrived in Hong Kong May 2, 1968.

My first passport.

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Here is my my first passport  and the first stamp issued May 2, 1968, allowing me to stay in Hong Kong until June 2, 1968.

I arrived in Hong Kong in the night, the tropical air so soft it was a velvet mist.  Thick evening scents in the fragrant harbor and mellow insects purring in rhythm with the cacophony of the great city!  What a an exotic adventure.

Kai Tak was Hong Kong’s airport then and being American born and bred, I knew nothing about investing aboard.

I was 21 years old and had no idea how that trip would lead me throughout Asia for almost ten years and onto business and investing in Europe, California, England, Isle of Man, Florida, The Dominican Republic, North Carolina and Ecuador.

In the last 50 years there has been a lot of change in our freedoms, and our goal at this site has been to share ideas that enhance three basic qualities of real freedom.

#1: The first basic quality of real freedom is natural health.  None of us can be truly free until we wrest ourselves from the grip of the expensive, big pharma fueled, health care system.

Good health is the most valuable asset of all.  I know because there are some moments, always remembered.  Peak experiences. Never forgotten spots in our existence that become crossroads that forever dictate the direction of our lives.  Sharing such a memory about good health from 30 years ago, may help you gain more freedom and wealth now.

A low rumble, the crowded city below, muffled through thick foliage and vibrated over the thin ribbon of asphalt that winds, flat as a snake, through the jungle ahead.

Warm fogs swept in from the South China Sea and hung like a humid blanket in the air.

Bowen Road, mid levels, Hong Kong 1973.  This narrow path flows through the middle of a thick boscage that looms above the most crowded city in the world. The green, freshness and cacophony of birds brought us here each morning.  Amahs that stretched on bent iron pipe handrails, ancient wrinkled men carrying caged sparrows and all types of early risers moved like shadows against the verdant forest in their motions of Tai Chi.

Me?

I jogged. 25 years old, this was the day when divorce papers were served and I also learned I was broke.

Working from the age of 21 for a new hot company my stock options made me a paper millionaire at age 24.  This unexpected wealth created bad spending habits and without the sense to sell, this portfolio was nothing but paper that became worthless.  Plus the ambition and my month-at-a-time tours to Asia had ruined my marriage as well.

So that day I stumbled, more than jogged, wondering what would happen now!  Everything seemed gone and for the first mile or so, I was just running and afraid.

The second mile absorbed me.  The self-pity and fright began to fade.  During mile three I began to sweat and the trauma literally evaporated.  Finally by the fourth mile I was taking stock.  My two kids were smart, strong and already used to my being away.  My soon-to-be-ex had the house, two cars, the boat, all the furniture and the 14 apartments we had managed to buy.  They would be okay.

So what about myself?

On the fifth mile I analyzed my position… No cash, no way to pay next month’s rent and no job. I  was thousands of miles from home.  Most of my clients were unhappy campers focusing their anger on the only Guello (foreign devil) who had not fled the city (me).

Yet as one foot plodded in front of the other, there were several things I realized that I did have.  Energy and the ability to work.  I had my good health.

I jogged along thinking about my many wealthy customers who had tons of cash and gobs of assets, but were mostly diseased, exhausted and consequently perpetually afraid.  If anything went wrong in their business, banking or the economy and politics, they were doomed.  They could not build again.  Life for them was just the paper they had already accumulated.  They were always bound up by that because they feared they could never last out tough times or rebuild.  They were trapped by their wealth and rotting lifestyles.

Suddenly over the last five miles I felt extremely rich and free!  That was the moment when I realized the basis of real freedom is good health.  Money can come and go, but if we are physically fit, with stamina and good energy we can always rebuild wealth.

That’s the moment I have never forgotten and over the past 40 + years I have kept a continual watch for new ways to be stronger, more flexible, in better shape and more immune from disease, in my global travels.

This search for health, vitality and longevity is one of the reasons why Merri and I moved to Ecuador and lived with an Andean shaman in a remote Andean hacienda for over a year.

Having lived with the indigenous there, Merri and I learned that good health and longevity come from easy, but special exercises, good nutrition and good sleep so our bodies are fit and strong and our minds clear.

My three reports on natural health secrets shares my decades of experience on how to be healthy in a sick world.  Learn more at Three Health Reports.

#2: The second quality of real freedom is the ability to earn through service.  So many promises, purchasing power of money, savings, pensions, health care, social security, financial security, privacy, have all been broken so many times that no promise made by big business or big government can be trusted.  The only true form of wealth is to have some value, to be able to serve (or produce) in a profitable way.

A multi dimensional micro business brings freedom as it redesigns your lifestyle by bringing profit, fulfillment and  peace of mind, through doing what you love.

The way I maintain freedom and continual lifestyle reinventions is to “Go Try Things”.

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Here I am working in the woods on our North Carolina Farm trying to explain the importance of this phrase “Go try things”… which sums up why you not only can but should gain the benefits of an international business.

In the winter, I work at our Florida home instead.

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I started trying things in Hong Kong 48 years ago.

Then I moved onto Fiji and after a decade found “New Things” living in London.  While conducting London real estate tours, I spotted distortions in the Isle of Man that led to an Isle of Man business.  Years of real estate tours helped me pick up unimaginable profits… because I tried new things.

However Britain’s gray winters soon drove me to the sun.  Merri and I found ourselves in the sun watching sun rays sparkle on the emerald prisms of cool, spring fed pools in Naples Florida and the Dominican Republic where we found more “New Things”.  We conducted Dominican real estate tours but continued to self publish as well.  Then in the process of trying new places and new things, 20 years ago we stumbled onto Ecuador.

We continue to “Go try things”.

Our business has evolved over 50 years from Hong Kong to London to Europe to the Isle of Man to the Dominican Republic to Florida to North Carolina to Ecuador and back to Small Town USA. 

While in London in the 1970s, I wrote my first book, “Passport to International Profit”.

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One chapter in the book was about the “Concept Conversion Trick” and how it creates the “Soil Defense Syndrome”.

Here is an excerpt from that chapter:

“The Concept Conversion Trick begins when people agree on a good concept for working and living together.  The people go to work and if the concept is good they will create a paradise.  The government gives them a flag and a song. Then the government pulls the trick.  The government convinces the people that the flag and song are important.  Then while the people are busy watching the flag and singing the song, the government replaces the concept with a set of ever increasing written rules and regulations administered by bureaucrats and backed up by a police force.

“This trick trades people’s individual freedoms for a shiver up the spine when the song is played the piece of cloth is waved.  The Concept Conversion Trick turns spirit into matter.   Like trading love for a beautiful plastic doll.  When the trick has been pulled and the dust settles, the people realize too late what has happened.  Anyone who steps out of line is called unpatriotic or even criminal.  He is swatted down by the bureaucracy or police force, crushed with overwhelming power or made an example of so others will tow the mark ‘for the good of society’.  All this is done in the name of public interest.”

If this writing sounds prophetic having been written over 40 years ago, it was not.  A simple review of any previous great society shows that this trick was part of its evolution.  Like the Roman Empire, things may get better for a while, then worse and then better again.  In the long term, as societies age, they lose their original vibrancy and life.

That book began my self publishing career because I was fascinated by how societies differ, yet are so much the same.

This is how our business continued to evolve, trying things of interest and fascination to us.  Not once did business turn out as we expected… but always there was some success… happy customers…. good deeds…. great service… profit… fulfillment and adventure all originating from just trying new things or doing old things in new ways.

We live in a fortunate era.  Throughout most of history, life expectancy and requirements of work meant that the most experienced sector of the work force was no longer physically able to continue.  In our high tech environment we have a chance to create their most important pinnacle career at a time when previously we would have retired.  This is the first time in mankind’s history when the value of our experience is worth more than the cost of getting it.

Today we have a global income with a self publishing micro-business with readers around the world, but run from our current homes in Smalltown USA.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire with a farm in North Carolina, orange groves and home in Florida.

Learn more about how you can gain freedom and a better life when you “Go Try Things” here.

#3: The third quality of real freedom is to have a mathematically based financial information system that repeatedly reveals a diversified selection of good multi currency investment values.

I developed the international investing course Purposeful investing” (Pi) to share ways to reduce stress, add safety and increase profit.  This course is based on my fifty years of global investing experience and aims at creating restful rather than restless wealth.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

A golden rule of investing is “there is always something we do not know”.  Investment ideas might have some connection to truth, but never contain the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  Every investment is based on approximation.  Investments rise and fall in value, at least temporarily. The fluctuations create  stress, worry and fear, three of an investors’ worst enemies.  These emotions cause the “Behavior Gap”, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

The “Purposeful investing” course helps learn how to avoid the Behavior Gap by creating easy to use, low stress, safe, profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal profit goals.

Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of the Primary Pi Model Portfolio.  The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of  Michael Keppler.

Our analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

From this research, Keppler develops his Good Value Stock Market Country Selection Strategies.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisers.

The Pifolio uses Keppler’s Country Selection Strategy to construct a diversified, risk-controlled, portfolio that invests in Keppler’s BUY rated stock markets.  The portfolio gives equal weighting to each BUY market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but is a share normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

The portfolio does not contain any individual stocks because country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.

The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  The Pifolio is simply  a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  Investing in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The original Pifolio began with 70% diversified into the following good value developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio was invested in Keppler’s Good Value Emerging Markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Thailand.

To understand this ideas’ performance in real time, we invested $80,000 ($40,000 at a bank and $40,000 at a low cost online broker) to watch performance in real time.

The Pifolio is up 27.1% since we began…. almost exactly equal to the S&P 500.

Here is a chart from the low cost online broker Motif, showing the performance of the $40,0000 there.

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There are three huge benefits in the portfolio.  First, there have been only two trades in almost three years.  This portfolio is easy and keeps trading costs down.

Second, this portfolio has matched the S&P 500 bt has a huge cost to book and PE advantage that gives it far more potential than the S&P.  Plus the portfolio is entirely in no dollar denominated markets.  The portfolio will gain a forex rise as the US dollar falls.

Third, this portfolio is diversified in 21 stock markets markets instead of one market.

Learn more about this type of value investing at Protect Your Savings and Wealth from Mistakes

Statistics suggest that at age 71, I won’t be serving you for another 50 years, but I am shooting for a diamond anniversary message so look forward to looking for ways to make your life better with interesting, usable ideas over the next 24 years.

Gary

Live Well and Be Free – 5 Global Earning Experiences

Here are 5 global income experiences and 7 business secrets that can help you live well and free anywhere.

I began my international business 50 years ago and have been creating and running international micro businesses since.

During that time my wife, Merri, and I have been able to live, work and earn all over the world… literally anywhere we wanted because of seven secrets we gained which we share here with you.  We have been blessed with global earning experiences that helped us make millions… but were also fun, such as with British Lordships.   See how one micro business helped us rub elbows with British Royalty below.

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One of Merri’s businesses that worked with British Royalty was featured in Doonesbury.

Global Earning Experience #1:  Lepers.  Our micro businesses have been fulfilling.  Merri started her international business in her 20s (long before she knew me) importing Italian clocks to the USA.  This earned so much ($80,000 in the first year) that she created other micro businesses helping orphans in the Yucatan and Haitian lepers (at the Albert Schweitzer Hospital) produce crafts she sold for them in the USA.

Excellent income ($80,000 in the 1970s was a lot of cash)…  incredible contacts… working with Dr. Larimer and Gwen Mellon who created the Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Haiti… and enormous satisfaction.  Merri still cries over 40 years later when she tries to speak of the gratitude of the lepers and her time and life in Haiti.

Plus she gained lessons that allowed her to live and earn… in many places and many ways.

Then we got together.

Global Earning Experience #2:  Lords.  Another of Merri’s ideas (in the mid 1980s) was to broker British titles to wealthy Americans.  We made a ton from that… even gained 15 minutes of fame when Gary Trudeau learned about this business and immortalized it by having B.D. Zonker buy a title!

What fun… profitable, plus stimulating, meeting and working with the Blue Bloods of Britain… visiting their castles… invited to their events and affairs.

Before I get ahead of myself, may I ask you a question?

Would you like to have a lifestyle and a front yard like this… almost a thousand acres of hacienda overlooking the Andes?

Would you enjoy living in two, three or even more places wherever and whenever you choose?  Would you be happier with more freedom, lack of debt, and a life of riches, adventure and travel?  Would you be glad to feel confident that you can discover interesting and fun business ideas again and again that not only bring in extra income but also help the poor and improve the environment?

If so then read on… because… that front yard above is ours in a remote Andean hacienda.  This is only one of several homes that we have gained (to live and use in business) from the secrets we’ll share below.

In the summer, we retreat to our 250+ acre farm high in the Blue Ridge mountains of North Carolina.  Here’s our front yard in these mountains and the view from my home office.

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Home offices in all your homes are important by the way.  They are part of one global micro business secret and you’ll see why have two home offices (and using two cars in business) can save thousands in taxes.

When you have an international micro business that involves your home and car, the tax benefits are fantastic.

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A group of readers visiting our North Carolina home after learning how to gain freedom with a micro business.

You can also enjoy such a lifestyle because after years of search, I found business secrets that you can use and enjoy.

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Waterfall at our North Carolina Farm.  See enjoyable benefits of a micro business in water.

Global Earning Experience #3: Hospitality.  Here’s a hotel we owned and operated in Ecuador.  Once we sold this we joined the sharing economy and began offering rentals in our North Carolina cabins through AIRBNB and houses in Florida.  We became designated super hosts within months and are adding thousands of extra dollars to our income every month.  If you want to provide genuine care and hospitality you can be anywhere and beat out big businesses in your niche because big business has created an uncaring world and everyone craves care.

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Having a variety of places to live is part of one of the secrets on how to earn more, have a better life with more fun, adventure and greater freedom.

Global Earning Experience #4:  Import-Export.   Here I am at our Florida house showing clients how to import.

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I was wearing a hand tailored, made to order, high quality wool suit from Ecuador that could be imported into the US for as little as $135 .  Plus that Panama hat was made in Ecuador.  This is odd but true, all genuine Panama hats are made in Ecuador.  We import Ecuador roses year round as well, all from one of our tax deductible US home office.

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The secrets we’ll share below are not about how to buy suits or flowers though.  The secrets show ways to make money (while helping others) marketing products and services wherever you are and much more…. globally.

Global Earning Experience #5:  Green Produce.   We have an orange grove and lake at our Florida home and

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are among the first to test new organic ways to make citrus farming better for the environment and the consumer.  In North Carolina we cultivate Wild American Ginseng as well as aquafarm.

These are just a few of the business experiences that can help you have the freedom to earn globally.  They are shared in our emailed correspondence course, International Business Made EZ.   This course helps you learn how to earn and live wherever you choose!

The course teaches a system based on seven secrets so powerful that it creates money for you regardless of where you are:  in town, out of the country, traveling or even in places as remote as we live.

These secrets have worked for us in real estate… titles… tours… agriculture… clothing… hospitality… alternative health…  spirituality… printing… publishing and art businesses for Merri and me all over the world.

I searched for these elusive secrets of opportunity for over twenty years, looking for a way to gain incredible, outlandish, unbelievable profit potential.

I finally found them and after years of proof and would like to share with you.  The opportunity I sought had to be enormously profitable yet also safe.  It had to work in good times and bad and had to be flexible so it could evolve as times changed.

These were not the only standards.  I wanted to find unbelievable profit and high safety and freedom but also wanted this incredible investment to offer the ultimate tax shelter, something so perfect it would not be even a little bit questionable.  It had to be so tax foolproof that Congress would never change it. 

I wanted a tax shelter so good that it would be encouraged by the government.

I feared deep down inside that what I wanted was impossible.  Nevertheless, I scoured the world for over twenty years looking for it.  I looked in Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.  But I didn’t find it in Asia.  I went to the Middle East and searched all over Europe… all across the USA and Latin America.  I hardly missed a country.  After twenty years and millions of miles, I guess I gave up.  Only then (as these things so often happen) was it that I found the best opportunity in the world.

This opportunity was not only perfect but I discovered that it was wherever I wanted it to be, in my own back yard, in Florida and our remote home in the High Country of North Carolina and our even more remote cloud forest home in Ecuador.

Merri and I have created a special program we call “Live Well and Free Anywhere” that makes it possible for you to enjoy extra income doing something you love.  You can gain full or part time and enjoy excellent profits as you have fun and do something good in the world.

My search stumbled on the fact that most millionaires make their money in business.  This discovery led to a study of rich businesses, ones that generate everlasting wealth.  Here are five of seven secrets we learned and have used in our  micro businesses:

Secret #1: They must enjoy the multiple effect.  A product once created must produce profits again and again, almost on a never-ending basis.  Each investment made needs to make huge returns.

Secret #2: They need to be greater than their owner’s time.  They must produce income even when the owner doesn’t put in day-to-day effort. You may already be wealthy or earning a high income.  You may not even need another business or extra income, but some day you might.  One surgeon explained it this way.  “I am making a fortune because peoples’ lives are in my hands.  Once my hands are no longer steady, my income stops.   My entire financial well being will then be in someone else’s hands!”

Secret #3: These money making systems should be enjoyable and fun.  Sadly most people make money for the sake of making money.  Many spend their lives working, just to have a few precious hours having fun.  The most important fact about making and keeping wealth is that those who were richest absolutely love what they were doing.  Money is of secondary importance to their effort.  And as things are, this means they actually ended up making more money.

Secret #4: These money making systems need to be flexible.  No matter what the economy brings, your ability to make money should work regardless of inflation, recession or even depression.

Secret #5: These businesses usually start small, but grow quite large.  Good money systems work for large or for small amounts and can be operated on either a full or part time basis.  Most businesses start with a learning curve.  During that time it is essential they are small.  Once the lessons have been learned and the system is operating properly, then it needs to grow for larger and larger returns.

These secrets created a fantastic way to make money with my own international micro business doing what I love!

You too can have everlasting wealth by turning your passion into profit.

Before discovering these secrets I had a business but to be honest could never get ahead.  I was almost penniless, in debt and living from month to month, check to check.  Then I discovered these seven secrets…and how to apply them around the world.

Since then our international micro businesses have brought in millions.  We gained all the physical possessions we desired, plus more than enough money in the bank.

We do not have one penny of debt and we have leisure time… though when you love your business… why not work?

This is most important, we have fun and feel that we do something beyond just making money every day!  Merri and I do what we love and have learned that through our global business we can accomplish far more important goals, gain self fulfillment and be of service to our community.  In short we can help make ourselves and the world better.

Among our greatest thrills is being able to help others through foundations we have started that help the environment and the poor.

More importantly we have the freedom to do all this from many locations (some are remote-you have seen the pictures) that we really enjoy.

You too can have the freedom to do what you love from any place you like, even operating (actually preferably) from your bedroom, dining room or den if you wish.

What do you love? Rare cars?  You can make a fortune creating a business around them.  Do you prefer fine art? Or do you love beautiful jewelry, coins, gems, real estate, furs, model railways, dolls, scientific equipment, war memorabilia, old and rare books, or whatever?  Do you prefer social subjects rather than objects?

Are you concerned with the environment or humanitarian problems, with crimes, war or poverty?  Would you like to help wipe these social problems out in the course of your business?

Are you a golfer? Do you love to travel? Why not make all kinds of money in a global business related to golf?

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place, help people get along better together?  You can do something good for the world, increase your income and live wherever you please in the process!

Whatever your passion you can learn how to earn by creating an international micro business based on it.  You can be international if you love to travel or not.  Regardless of your skills and position there is some approach that will work for you.

Take fishing, for example.

I am no great aquafarmer, but the numbers and lifestyle work on a small scale.  We pay about $3.50 a pound to stock the fish, they double, triple, even quadruple in size and we sell them at a local butcher shoppe for a modest profit.   This is not a big deal, but does generate income, helps attract guests to stay in our rental cabins, puts some great trout dinners on our table and is a thoroughly enjoyable part of my daily labor.  I need this to counter balance sitting in front of a computer.

Over a couple of months the fish grow… a lot.

gary scott

We are lucky to have a perfect but natural place to raise the trout.  On busy holidays when our monster trout are in demand I have to work hard fishing at that pond.  Pity me!

merrily farms

This pond is just below our house, so raising the trout is EZ for me.

Millions of people love fishing but don’t have a pond.  This does not mean they cannot be involved in fishing.  Here are just a few of many ways that others have profitably matched this passion with profit.

Two of my friends, John and Lou, grew up near me in the Oregon mountains.  They were outdoor adventure types and moved to Canada, where they homesteaded 1,200 acres on a trout-filled lake in mid British Columbia.  They built a fishing camp that attracts fisherman from around the world.

Duncan Kinderman on the other hand loved fishing and castles.  He bought a castle on the River Tay, a great Scottish salmon river, and offered time shares for fisherman from Britain, Europe and the US.

Another entrepreneur I know was from Montana.  His skills were in marketing so he sold fishing trips for fishing camps.  He attended rod and gun exhibitions, met owners of these camps and arranged to sell their fishing trips to the US, Argentina and even in Russia to fisherman around the world.

Ralph Kylloe on the other hand loved fishing and photography so he created the book, “Fishing Camps”, which was published by Gibbs Smith publisher. This allowed Ralph to travel across the country enjoying fishing camps as he photographed and wrote.

Steve Ambrose, another friend of ours, had family commitments at home so he set up a bass fishing business in Florida that served Americans, Germans, Canadian, Dutch and Belgians.  Later as his children grew, he used his client base to arrange fishing trips in Argentina.

Each of these people had provincial backgrounds and differed in age, situation and skills.  Their common link, the love of fishing, led each to a global micro business.  Each was able to blend a unique nature and set of skills to develop a global business that surrounded them with fun, like minded fishing souls.

Also, imagine what an international business means to your world travel.  Every trip you take can be tax deductible!  You can honestly write off every trip that is related to your business.  Every journey becomes a research oriented adventure and a TAX DEDUCTIBLE EVENT. 

For example if you have your own business you can gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business because  IRS Form 4562, which is filed by proprietorships and corporations, contains spaces for up to six vehicles.

There are similar benefits by having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587.

These are huge tax benefits that can be gained when you have an international, at home,  micro business.

As a real international business person, you’ll have one of the most respected and tax protected businesses in the country.  Every country needs to do business abroad, and most governments have created many programs to encourage their citizens to do business overseas.  Many of those benefits come in the form of reduced tax.  Other benefits come in the form of legal protection and even subsidies and grants.

There is such an abundance of opportunity that Merri and I have created this program to help you have your own international micro business that can be managed almost anywhere.  This program is unique because Merri and I are unique.  We started our global business together.  Since we’re almost recluses, we decided to do the whole business by ourselves… thus we create micro businesses that do not require large staffs.

We began working at home.  Today, though we have tens of thousands of buyers and have made millions, we still work at home on our remote farms and employ only a few people to help.

You can do the same with a system contained in an electronic correspondence course called International Business Made EZ.   The course reveals all you need to know about how to start and run your own global business all by yourself.  It answers your questions and gets your business started!

Thousands have profited from this course which has been updated in its fifth edition.

For example, Ben, an investor from Pennsylvania used International Business Made EZ and wrote:

“Jam packed with vital information.  My head is spinning. Thank goodness this is all backed up by your manual. This is a true and cherished gift. Your tips on low cost business are a blessing!  Thank you once again for an outstanding course.  The value far exceeds the price.”

In just a week, you can be well on your way to income and freedom to live wherever you choose!  International Business Made EZ shows you how to take advantage of the five secrets mentioned above and the remaining two secrets below:

Secret #6: Look for ways to gain 1,000% returns in business.  The wealthiest families in the world today come from global businesses.  Learn how margins can be so incredible that few would believe them.  Learn how to use stories to make huge shifts in the value of products.  Take for example our friend Earl who is a dog trainer.  On a trip to Ecuador clay whistles in the market place were for sale at .35 cents each.  By calling them dog whistles Earl was able to sell them at $9.95,  a whopping 2,700% mark up!

Secret #7:  Create and market your product everywhere using niche marketing.  There are 11 steps to create the perfect product.  You learn them with International Business Made EZ.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets.  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to provide your marketing material for you almost FREE.

Learning how to market is the key to successful business. Knowing how to turn pennies into dollars is good marketing focus. International Business Made EZ gives you this winning marketing knowledge.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  You’ll learn how to create your own ads and when to use the internet… search engines… pay per click… classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth… even flea markets and roadside stands in some cases.

See how to build a PR list and social business network on the World Wide Web to gain thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I even share my most secret results on my marketing so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a product at $49 instead of $29.

Learn how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and received free trips all over the world.

Learn how we have made money over the Internet (specific details, specific experiences, hard earned knowledge over the last 13 years!)  With an inexpensive computer you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over – even if you are computer challenged.  Merri and I have certainly proven this.  We were one of the first to run a successful website and still rank high today even with millions of competitors.  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach.

Merri and I with our webmaster, David Cross, were leaders in beginning internet micros businesses and have sold millions over the web.  You gain ways to earn global income over the net from that experience as well.

At www.garyascott.com our emailed messages are regularly sent to over 20,000 readers.

You learn the income producing power of defined focus and immediate repetition to get good search engine rankings and sales.

You can earn successfully while living anywhere because people of all ages are doing this.  Technology wiped out any disadvantages of age and gender.  A USA Today article entitled “The new entrepreneurs: Americans over 50” explains that older business people often start one person ventures in home offices using technology that did not exist a few years ago.  The article gave an example of Franny Martin who launched a cookie company at age 56 and said she built revenues to over $500,000 a year.   Yet her web site which attracts cookie customers from around the world cost only $3,000 to build.

International Business Made EZ is arranged in an easy to understand style.  Everything is explained in vivid detail.  We share all, how we have done it ourselves.  The course is full of business ideas and case studies based on our 48 years of experience.

The course  describes on a step-by-step basis, how Merri and I built a multi-million dollar international micro business in just 7 years and how you can do the same.

Terry T., an attorney from Germany took the course and enjoyed this fact when he stated, “What I like most is that it is a nuts and bolts course-not pie in the sky.

Learn How to Gain Total Security.  Learn how and why the global economy makes employment riskier because change is no longer an option.  See ways to become and agent of and profiteer from change never a victim of change.

Learn How to Perfect a Lifestyle.  Living as you choose is important because life is short.  Fortunately matching what you love with what you do in business actually increases profits.

George K an MD from California confirmed this when he wrote:

Your course helped me to crystallize and clarify ideas I’ve been considering that relate to my interests in writing, travel and ecology.  They showed ways to combine them in a personally engaging and potentially profitable way.  I especially appreciated the practical advice on organizing and marketing-turning ideas into products that sell and make a profit.”

A retired railway executive from Michigan picked up on this aspect and said more.

“Your course opened my eyes to the merits, profits, and prestige of becoming an international businessman, particularly the idea of doing business in Canada for distribution in the U.S. (for total tax protection).”

Learn How to Market your Product.  Learn truths that rule the market place.  Gain knowledge on subjects like… How to Make the Truth Exciting. Create your own Sales Story…  How to Deal With Cultural Differences…  How to Build Global Lists and Use International PR…  How to Spot the National Psyche and Quadruple Profits With Multimedia Marketing…  How to Choose Businesses as Pioneers or as Settlers.

Tom K., an engineer from Ohio, cashed in on this idea and wrote, “Basically, I learned the selling and marketing implications.  The course is absolutely worth the price!”

Learn  How to Obtain What You Need from the Net.  How to Use the Web to Reach your Market.  How to develop your site, target your market and start getting visits. The top ten Internet tips to use, the top ten traps to avoid, and many other lessons our Webmaster has used in his many years on the net. This system is so simple anyone can use it.

“Thank you for taking the mystery out of business and bringing it down to the ham and eggs level.” L – Chiropractor – Oklahoma”

Learn the Importance of Business Evolution.  It is vital to success and fulfillment that your business has balance and grows in harmony.

Rachel B, a housewife from Washington, enjoyed learning this fact and told us, “The idea of starting at the lowest cost level was terrific.”

Learn How to Set up Your Banking Structure.   Learn all you’ll need about the financial end: How to control inventory, keep overheads down, check ad results and stay on top of your business.  Learn 11 hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

International Business Made EZ contains all these secrets and more.

One delegate, Ted T. a publisher from California said:

“Your course is outstanding! Just two hours of study alone were worth more than the price.”

While Kelly, a business woman from Atlanta, explained:

“It was great going through your steps, being 100% honest without fear of giving trade secrets since you have paid the price (to gain this knowledge).”

Who is helped by International Business Made EZ?

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international micro business for fun and profit.

Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit.  Those who want more control over their career can profit.  Plus those who love global travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Your tax savings in a year can be worth ten, twenty even 100 times the cost of International Business Made EZ.

Even older entrepreneurs are taking advantage of technology.  One of our friends and clients, Mickey E., was a 72 year old real estate broker, when she began a small global business.  With just a computer and internet, she created publications that attracted English real estate buyers.  This allowed her to become a top sales person in the biggest real estate firm (selling over a billion dollars of real estate a year) in town.  She later used the tactics she learned to move to Ecuador (in here late 70s) and start a micro business there.

If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time international micro business, or want to build your existing business, you can profit by International Business Made EZ.

This course is also for couples who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.

This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

An employed couple from New York wrote, “We found the course interesting and informative.  We were inspired to start work on an international project.  When we came down, we had no idea on what to do.”

There is nowhere else to gain such a unique network of information and help.  We have a successful international business with over 20,000 readers in dozens of countries so you gain practical current business contacts that are active now.

Are you interested in a global micro business?  It can be small and part time mainly to gain prestige, fun and tax benefits.  It can be full fledged and rake in thousands a day.  If so, International Business Made EZ is an absolute bargain.  Our goal and guarantee is that you will be able to start and run your own global micro business.

If you are not fully satisfied in any way,  just tell us within 60 days and we’ll send you a 100% full refund with no questions asked.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through an International Business.

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Your Friend,

Gary Scott

Others who have used thus course wrote:

“The course gave me insight on what to do with widening my client base.” M – Real Estate Broker – Florida

“The course helped me in several ways. #1: To realize that it is not only OK but preferable to start small. #2: I feel I have a workable program to have my own newsletter-my own passion!” T B – Professional, Washington

“The course fulfilled all my expectations providing all the details necessary to start a business from creating the idea, through marketing including the systems necessary to implement our ideas.” B C – Chiropractor – California

“The first thing that strikes you when you start this course is how quickly and simply Gary cuts through many of the common misunderstandings about doing business internationally.  In fact anyone with even a small local business could learn a wealth of practical marketing and sales strategies and tips through International Business Made EZ.”

More Comments from Readers

“I completed International Business Made EZ in a (long!) weekend and – unlike many business books and courses – I didn’t fall asleep whilst reading it! I found it helpful to refer back to whilst I put my business ideas into action and the business and banking contacts in the course were worth their weight in gold.”

“There is a lot of rubbish written about business and ‘get rich quick schemes’ and I seem to receive some sort of junk mail or spam e-mail most days trying to sell me a ‘get rich quick’ idea, but I found Gary’s course genuinely different.”

“Firstly, the International Business Made EZ course is written by someone who has tried and proven his international business and then chose to share those practical examples in a course rather than as ‘pie-in-the-sky theory’. Secondly, although the course would show even hard-nosed, skeptical business people a few things about doing business internationally, it is written in a completely unassuming and open way and this makes it easy for anyone to gain maximum benefit in the minimum amount of time from the course.”

This electronic “International Business Made EZ” costs $299. You gain incredible education and the importance of the knowledge for you and your family’s wealth.

The course is so complete Merri and I extend our “no fooling around-complete satisfaction guarantee” and a special offer because “International Business Made EZ” is only one small part of the special program we have developed for you.

Here is the first part of the special offer.  We provide two emailed courses… “International Business Made EZ”,  and “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

Merri and I use writing and self publishing in our business.  We have earned as much as $20,000 for a single day’s work… and have earned consistently year in and year out… while we do what we love… because of a few secrets.  We write to be self fulfilled… to share what we have gained from living, working, investing and writing all over the world.

We wanted to share these secrets so we created a Self Publishing “Writer’s Camp” weekend seminar.  We offered the course for $1,500 and were surprised when 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.  Those who attended love the seminar.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity.  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in the “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for each course (and $299 for the recorded workshop).   We’ll send both courses and the recorded Writer’s Camp to you by email for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

Does that sound fair enough?

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Well actually you save more than $598.  You also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

You can learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business and Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Fair enough?

There is still more.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive the Report, “How to Finance a Small Business Overseas” (no extra fee).

Merri and I have always preferred to start our micro businesses  through cash flow.  However in the early the days of our business I found myself raising extra capital several times.  I have also helped numerous businesses raise money to get started.  This report shares several experiences to give a thumbnail sketch of how to raise money abroad.

In addition you receive any updates we make on any of these courses reports or recordings, free for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

Finally a conclusion.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund . 

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.


 

Graphic Wealth Prediction


This chart on asset allocation is the oldest graph I have ever used!

Originally, decades ago, it was a slide for overhead projectors.  Later it became digital for Power Point.  Thousands of delegates have seen it at my global investing seminars and courses.  I have published it in numerous messages at this site over the past 20 years.

The chart’s longevity comes because it reveals a vital truth we should never ignore.

Most investors do ignore this truth…some at their peril.

Don’t.  You’ll be at risk, because the pros are acting on the facts behind this graph now.  See what this can mean to your investments now.

economic cycles

This chart shares an almost absolute truth…”The best times in the economy, are the worst time to invest in shares.”

Equity investors should watch out for:

  • Rising Inflation
  • Rising Short Interest Rates
  • Rising Bond Yields
  • Falling Unemployment
  • Expanding PE Multiples

Asset allocation moves in ways that seem almost upside down.  Yet there is logic in the cycle.  When the economy is robust,  money is flowing-everyone wants to join in the party.  The market is ruled by greed.  Demand for shares increases.  As demand soars….value falls.

During an economic downturn, money is tight.  The market can be ruled by fear.  Demand for shares decreases.  As demand drops….value soars.

Now is the best of times for the economy.  This is the worst of times for equities.

This truth reveals the fact that we are at a place in the economic cycle where it’s best to build up cash.

The Wall Street Journal article: “Investors, Worried About the End of Goldilocks Market, Pare Back Riskier Bets” (1),  shows that professional investors recognize this and are reacting now.

The article says (bold is mine):  “Investors reassess their risk tolerance amid bouts of market volatility and signs of rising inflation.”

Nine years into a roaring stock bull market, fund managers are paying their last respects to Goldilocks.

Investors broadly remain bullish on stocks and other investments, aided by an upbeat U.S. Jobs Report on Friday. But repeated bouts of market volatility in 2018, and signs of a pickup in inflation have forced them for the first time in several years to reassess their tolerance for risk.  For many, that means boosting cash positions, slashing equity or diversifying portfolios.

At GAM, (Golden Asset Management), which manages 163 billion dollars, the team is moving money into long-short strategies.  These can bet both on rising as well as falling assets, and areas like emerging-market debt to reduce correlations within their portfolios.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch’s most recent fund-manager survey, showed a record monthly climb in the percentage of fund managers taking out protection against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next three months.

For nearly a decade, Swiss private bank, Julius Baer Group , which manages $410 billion, had broadly followed the classic 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, focusing on growth-biased stocks.  That ratio offers a higher allocation to stocks but still a healthy dose of bonds, which typically offer lower but more stable returns.  “Now, we’re at an inflection point. Buy and hold won’t work anymore,” said Yves Bonzon, the group’s chief investment officer.  Mr. Bonzon is also reducing allocations to stocks and holding more cash.

“It was frustrating [last year] when everything was only going up. I thought, why would clients talk to us?” said Mr. Stein, whose firm manages $449 billion. “But now these strategies make more sense, when there are bigger disconnects in markets.”

Others are taking a different approach. For the first time in years, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab , which manages $2.9 trillion in client assets, said he has been urging his U.S. clients to diversify their portfolios internationally in order to reduce risk.

Shortly after February’s correction, Mr. Kleintop said he went on a series of meetings from California to Kentucky prepared to reassure clients that the bull market wasn’t over yet and that stocks could still do well, albeit in a more volatile climate.

To his surprise, “They were all very confident, ready to buy the dip,” he said. “It does get you worried—it’s a sign we’re late in the cycle.”

chart

The pros get it!  This is why in the long run professional investors win… emotional amateurs can lose.

Mr. Kleintop gets it!  When most investors are confident, it is late in the cycle.

Mr. Stein gets it.  When clients won’t listen and won’t talk to the pros because everything is rising… it is late in the cycle.

Another Wall Street Journal article “After Nine Years, How Long Can This Bull Live?” (2) enforces this warning when it says (bolds are mine):

Long periods of calm lead investors and companies to make silly assumptions, leaving them dangerously exposed to shifts in fundamentals.  With the economy now appearing to be in the last phase of the cycle, in which the Fed starts worrying about too much growth rather than too little, some of the easy assumptions of recent years are starting to be challenged—and could threaten the most popular stocks.

For nine years U.S. investors have had easy money, higher profit margins and—mostly—rising valuations, even as the economy had its slowest recovery since World War II.  Wall Street won, while Main Street suffered.

Now Main Street is finally starting to do better.  Jobs are plentiful, unemployment is low, wages just might, perhaps, be picking up, and the bond market is once again priced for inflation rising to the Fed’s 2% target over the next two years.

Main Street’s gain could be Wall Street’s pain. 

The stock market isn’t prepared, because it has been transformed in the past nine years.  When the S&P bottomed in March 2009, the top five constituents were Exxon, Procter & Gamble , Johnson & Johnson , AT&T and Chevron , then offering an average dividend yield of 4.2%.  Investors wanted boring, predictable companies giving them money back immediately, not hopes of a dividend some time in the distant future.

Those companies have been swept away, with their total value now just 6% of the market, down from 14%.  Instead, the market is dominated by Apple, Microsoft , Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook, yielding 0.65% and making up the same share of market capitalization that the old-school top five did at the market trough. Investors dream of disruptive long-term growth and are willing to wait for their rewards—as should be expected when bond yields are low.

As the story switches to rising yields, the shunned higher-yielding stocks offering immediate reward should come back into favor. Technology and other high-growth, high-margin, high-capital-spending stocks should be less appealing because growth will be available from cheaper stocks, too. The assumptions many investors cling to are that money will stay easy, inflation will stay low and workers will be happy to accept what they’re given—so watch out if those are proven wrong.

When markets are rising most investors are smarter than the pros… until they are not.

Successful, long term investing strategies must include two tactics.  The first tactic is a repeatable selection of value during upticks.  The second tactic is protection during downfalls.   The really professional investors rarely do as well as amateurs in rising markets.  These pros mostly win long term because they known when to shift to the second safety tactic.

The long term graphic in this message shows that investing logic is upside down.  Good times are bad for shares and vice versa.  We are in good economic times, so shift from the story of “Goldilocks” to “Alice in Wonderland”.  Jump down the rabbit hole!

You’ll gain safety if you do.

Gary

Yesterday we sent our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) subscribers the annual 36 page “Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Publication”.

This year’s publication includes a 15 page Value vs. Growth comparison for the All Country World Index.  See how US value shares outperformed US growth shares by 6.16% over 90 years.

chart

See how to subscribe to Pi below.

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: Investors worried about end of goldilocks market pare back riskier bets

(2) www.wsj.com:  After nine years how long can this bull live

How to Speculate in Value


The text below is an excerpt from one of last week’s updates sent to subscribers of our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).

Here is a way to speculate in value.  Increase weighting of good value markets based on economic fundamentals.

I’ll explain a specific example… and special current opportunity in a moment.  First let’s look at last week’s global equity dip.

Financial headlines  two weeks ago read like this:

“With looks of shock and despair, traders reacted after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 1,0000 points, or 4 percent, minutes before the closing bell on February 5, 2018.”

Ten days later the tone had changed… to this.  “Dow, S&P 500 book 6th straight gain as stocks post best week in years. The drop marks the biggest points drop since the 2008 recession.

The recent stock market drawback and immediate recovery shows why purposeful investing makes so much good sense.  This sudden volatility led nowhere for traders, except to increased fees and lost opportunity.

Those who used math based value and trend analysis hardly saw a blip.  Pi investors didn’t spend a penny dumping shares that they either had to buy back… or give up profit on when share prices recovered.

For example the Keppler Good Value Developed Market Pifolio saw seven of its ten country ETFs obtain a yellow Stock State Indicator alert from Tradestops.com at the very bottom of the stock market dip.

Not one of these alerts turned into a sell signal.

tradestops

Now, just a week later, all ten shares in this Pifolio have green Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com

share chart

This is also true of the Keppler Good Value Emerging Market Pifolio.

For investors who held these Pifolios… nothing statistically happened.

Nada.

No extra trading fees.

No guessing or fingernails chewed.

Just additional steady profits.

Instead of trying to second guess the impossible-to-know, Pi investors remained steady.

They could be calm… take a nap even.

Or Pi investors could devote more time to life, family and friends and the business of making money with something that’s more enjoyable, better for society and easier to predict than the short term ups and downs of shares.

There you have it… Pi investing is better.

But… we all have a bit of gambler within… don’t we.  So here is a better way to speculate…. by shifting the weighting of value.

ENR Asset Manager’s February 2018 Advisory Extra Bulletin shows us how because France may offer extra value in the years ahead.

The bulletin says:  Big Tax Cuts Attract Foreign Investment and Spur French GDP

Bullish on the Macron Revolution

France is back.

France’s reputation for smothering bureaucracy in addition to high taxes, and a labor code that’s not business friendly, has made it hard for the country to attract foreign investment and talent.  The previous government of Franҫois Hollande was a disappointment for France.  A massive 75% surtax was levied on the wealthy, businesses moved out of the country and labor unrest simmered.  The country struggled to grow its economy while other members of the euro-zone clawed their way out of the eurozone debt crisis starting in 2010.

Then a young Emmanuel Macron was elected last spring, defeating the French far right and resulting in one of the biggest rallies on record for the Paris CAC-40 Index.

Since his election in May 2017, the former investment banker has already pushed through labor law reforms that mak it easier for businesses to fire workers.  He has also sharply cut wealth and capital gains taxes.  He’s capitalizing on high confidence in Europe and uncertainty over Brexit to lure companies to France. Macron is seen as a keen globalist and proponent of free trade and during his recent trip to China, emphasized the need for reciprocal open trade
agreements when meeting President Xi Jinping.

“France has all the assets to succeed. It has top engineers, great entrepreneurs, one of the best education systems in the world, great infrastructure, and successful global companies,” wrote Google CEO Sundar Pichai in a recent blog.

Thirty-eight thousand engineers graduate in France every year. The country is also home to more than 9,400 start-ups and the world’s largest start-up incubator, Station F, which opened in Paris in June.

Macron is “perceived as a pro-business president”, said the Bain report. American investors see this political change as a sign of a major transformation in France, the start of “a French New Deal.”

Venture capital investment increased to more than €2.2 billion in 2016, putting France second only to the UK on the European start-up scene. France took the lead in the first eight months of 2017 raising €2.7 billion–nine times more than for the full year of 2014.

The basis of a speculation in France is that it is already one of the ten good value developed markets according to Keppler Asset Management’s analysis.

share chart

We can compare its financial basics to the entire top value portfolio.

Price to book of the ten markets is 1.58.  The data below from Keppler’s January 2018 analysis shows that France’s market has a price to book of  1.62 (bottom left column in chart below).

Price to earnings of the average of all the Top Value markets is 18.2 compared to 18.9 for France.  Dividend yields at  3.08 and 3.1 for France are also almost the same.

share chart

From page 28 of the 82 page January 2018 Keppler Good Value Developed  Market Analysis we sent you last month.

These numbers suggest that we do not give up any value to shift emphasis towards France.

How to Invest in France

The simplest way to increase profit potential in France is with the country ETF iShares MSCI France.

A look at the 22 year chart at www.finance.yahoo.com shows how this ETF (dark blue line) outperformed the S&% 500 (dark blue) in the run up  of the 2003 to 2007 bull market.  Yet we can see that France has lagged far behind the US since 2012.

share chart

We can also see from Tradestops.com that this low risk (13.6 VQ) ETF has a green Stock State Indicator and in the $32 range  is about 10% above its $27.92 stop price.

share chart

Eric Roseman CEO of ENR Asset Management has a different idea for investors who want to do a bit more work and take added risk.

Eric says:  With European markets now at their highest levels since 2007 or in many cases, trading near all-time highs, investors must be selective. The bull market in global equities is mature and prospective investors would be wise to purchase only high-value stocks offering compelling multiples in a world marked by asset inflation.

In the developed world, the euro-zone is probably ‘fair value’ at best at current levels but much less expensive compared to New York in early 2018.

Stocks in Europe continue to provide much better relative and absolute values compared to bonds; the MSCI Eurozone Index of shares currently yields 3% compared to just 0.69% for a benchmark ten-year German government bund.  In Paris, the CAC-40 Index of large-cap stocks offers a 2.6% yield compared to 0.98% for a ten-year French government bond. Stocks remain attractively-priced even as the yield-curve in the eurozone has steepened along with the United States since last fall.  And as bond interest rates rise, banks typically earn a greater spread on deposits and loans.

Instead of buying a French index fund trading near all-time highs, I prefer to peruse the universe of CAC-40 Index blue-chips for bargains. And several are still available.  Industrials, consumer discretionary, telecom, energy and consumer staple stocks have all rallied over the past 12 months along with the banks. But bargains do beckon in Paris.

The two French stocks I’m recommending today rank among the Top Ten dividend-paying companies on the CAC-40 Index and trade at very attractive multiples.  Furthermore, they are both beneficiaries of the Macron tax cuts amid a restructuring of the French economy.

You can learn these two shares when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course described below.

These are both medium risk shares with VQs in the 20’s.

There you have it…  two ways to speculate by shifting the weighting of your portfolio within the realms of value.  Add more ETFs that invest in France or  in good value French shares.  You have some extra profit to gain, but still minimal chance of  long term loss.

Long term Keppler’s analysis suggests that the best results come from equal diversification in all good value markets… but in the short term France may see an extra bump up economically and more weighting in this market could result in increased profit.

There may be one more benefit.

Check with your tax advisor.  You might be able to deduct (at least partially) a trip to Paris to investigate the value of investing in France.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

For more details on ENR Asset Management contact Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Read ENR Asset Management’s ENR Advisory Extra Bulletin (FEBRUARY 2018) here

For more details on Tradestops.com click here

Punch in the Gut


We sent an important lesson to our Personal investing Course (Pi) subscribers that reviewed the math behind the 2018 Pifolios that we are tracking in the course this year.

The biggest benefit of purposeful investing, and our ongoing study of global equity market value in the Pi, was summed up in a Thursday, February 8, 2018 New York Times article entitled “For Millennial Investors, a Harsh Lesson in Market Gyrations”.

The article began “Severe stock swings rattled young investors, many of whom had never experienced such an intense sell-off and were left feeling “a punch to the gut.”

That “punch in the gut” is the emotion that ruins most investors.   Pi helps subscribers learn how to use math and logic to overcome this destructive emotion.

The chart below (shown in British pounds), shows how if we invest long term, we’ll make money.

stock chart

Most investors lose because that “punch in the gut” causes them to panic and become short term investors at the worst possible time when there are severe corrections such as in 1973,  1987, 1990, 2000 and 2007.

Greed and even more so, fear are an investors worst enemy!

Three keys to good investing are to find value, keep costs low and match the timing of investments to liquidity needs, (so shares do not have to be sold when shares prices are temporarily down).

We need some belief, some anchor, some discipline that helps us maintain equilibrium when markets crash and we feel a punch in the gut.

Pi helps us accomplish this in several ways.

First, Pi helps us understand how Keppler Asset Management spots the best value equity markets.    Diversifying in these markets with country ETFs has provided good long term results.

Second Pi helps us track the trends of these good value country ETFs by following Tradestops.com because short term spurt up or down does not create a trend that we need or should act on.

How do we know when a spurt or a crash is a signal and not just noise?

We track the good value shares in our Pifolios using Tradestops.com’s Stock State Indicators.

The Stock State Indicators use math based proprietary algorithms created by Dr. Richard Smith (founder and CEO of Tradestops) to signal the trend of each stock and use this math to decide that a stock is performing well, or is in a period of simple correction, or is at risk of further, serious, decline.

The Stock State Indicators help us keep emotions out of investing.

Dr. Smith has taken the typical trailing stop to another level.  Instead of a blanket percentage, he has created algorithms that evaluate each individual stock’s behavior to discover their personal volatility levels (also known as the Volatility Quotient or VQ%).

Here is what Tradestops says about Stock State Indicators.

tradestops.com

Here is the state of two of the portfolios we reviewed in yesterday’s lesson,

The first pifolio is the Keppler Good Value Developed Market Pifolio 2018.

This portfolio began January 4, 2018 and is down 1.12% (after rising 32.6% in 2017).   On the 8th of February eight of the ten markets in this Pifolio remain in the green zone, though two (Japan and Germany) briefly fell out.  They have been back into green for just two days.   Two shares (England and Singapore) are being watched more closely.

tradestops.com

The big drop in share prices on of the 8th caused five more alerts

tradestops

The second Pifolio is the Keppler Good Value Emerging Market Pifolio 2018.  This Pifolio also began January 4, 2018 and had a similar positive ratio on February 8th with nine shares remaining green and two markets that just slipped into yellow.

tradestops.com

The US crash impacted these markets as well and added two alerts.

tradestops

This mathematical analysis suggests that the recent sharp declines are still, currently noise.  No downward trends have yest been established.

The current stability gives each of us time to decide, whether we’ll hold or sell positions if the slide continues.

Look at your liquidity needs for the next four years and decide if you are a trader or not?   The four year projections at Keppler Asset Management show that global markets will continue to rise during this period.

kepler

Make a rational, logical plan that suits your needs. Don’t wait. Make the plan now and stick with it even if you feel a punch in the gut.

Gary

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

Where Will the Stock Market Go Tomorrow?


What will the stock market do tomorrow?

Many investors are asking this today after the big drops took place last Friday and yesterday.

This is the wrong question.

A better question is “what will the stock market do in a year or two or three or four and how will this affect my liquidity needs”?

Before we look at what the recent correction might mean, let’s review seven of the 50 Golden Rules of Investing (that I have accumulated from investing in shares for 50 years).

#1: There is always something we do not know.   Anyone who says they know what shares will do tomorrow is fooling you (or themselves) .  All correct predictions will be luck or educated guessing at best.

#2: Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.  We do know this, but do not know exactly when the performance will be high or low.

#3: Markets move short term based on emotion and are unpredictable.  Markets move long term based on value and are predictable.

#4: Do not panic.  Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.  You can do this when you have built a portfolio based on your liquidity needs and good value.

#5: Do not let feelings influence you too much.  This is easier said than done… which is why I have rushed this note to you.

#6: Do not care too much about day to day volatility.  The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time and costs to much in fees.  If the market falls… the drop is creating better value.

#7: Place a higher priority on numbers rather than good stories.  So let’s look at some numbers.

First, the chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.  We have tracked Keppler for oever 20 years.  They are among the best statisticians.

These numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous fifteen years moving forward in monthly increments and thus adjusting steadily to an ever-changing norm.

The chart includes two remarkable episodes: The five-year period (1997-2001) during which the KAM Equally Weighted World Index stayed above the upper forecast band, and the period starting in October 2008 when it fell below the lower forecast band, where it stayed through April 2014 (5 years and 7 months).

Since then, the Index (red line) has fallen slightly below the lower forecast band again twice in the first half of 2016.  In the past, index levels below or slightly above the lower forecast band turned out to be attractive entry points for long-term investors.

kepler

This analysis indicates that global markets are most likely to rise a compound annual total return estimate of 3.3 % in local currencies from the beginning of 2018 through the beginning of 2022.

Taking into account the chances of deviation at 20% up or down, the upper-band estimate is that by 2022 the compound annual total return could be as high as 8.1%  or as low as a compound annual total return of -2.3 %.

In other words if an investor holds on to a portfolio of global shares, based on the MSCI World Index, they should expect to see as much as 8.1% a year profit or a 2.3% per annum loss.

However this portfolio can be enhanced by holding shares in good value markets.

Keppler’s analysis shows that the good value developed markets are a much better value (1.58 price to book) versus the world index (2.43 price to book).

keppler

However my portfolio that holds ETFs invested in these good value markets (held at online broker at Motif.com)  shows that value markets are not immune from the correction either.  MY portfolio dropped 3.7% in the day.

motif

This short term drop in terms of a trend line means nothing.   We not only invest in good value market ETFS, but WE track the trend of each market with Tradestops.com.  Today the Stock State Indicator of each share in the portfolio (each a country ETF that invests in a good value market), remains green.  In other words  the trend of each market is still up.  This two day correction has not yet indicated a true downwards shift.

tradestops.com

We also track the analysis of ENR Asset Management and ENR’s CEO sent us this note today.

The Dow and other U.S. stock markets crashed late this afternoon in a dramatic 1,175-point plunge for the Dow Jones Industrials Average or 4.6% in one day. The S&P 500 Index plunged over 4%. I expect this panic selling to extend overnight in Asia and spill over into European trading tomorrow before the dust settles over the next several days.

Global markets have now erased their gains for 2018 after a stunning start in January. For our purposes, our growth portfolios (ENR Global Contrarian and ENR Aggressive Growth) are also down after today but not fully invested and still holding some hedges. Even our conservative portfolios, holding 30% in cash, were hit today. However, we are not net short and certainly still exposed to risk in mostly high-quality stocks worldwide. I’m watching the market action carefully and won’t hesitate to apply short or reverse stock index ETFs if I think there’s another big leg down. But at this point, the panic has already occurred. Markets are now either oversold or almost oversold. You don’t start buying market protection AFTER a crash. If anything, you sit tight, and maybe make fresh purchases. For us, it’s wait and see for now.

The big risk lies in the aftershocks. I imagine certain leveraged hedge funds might collapse or some systematic traders forced to liquidate based on computer models. Make no mistake: today saw panic-selling towards the end of the day and probably triggered some sort of Flash Crash whereby computers exacerbated the drop. There’s no doubt in my mind that one or several very big program trading systems triggered this mini-crash today.

The macro picture remains bullish from a growth perspective. The global economy is growing, inflation is rising but not rapidly in the United States and remains very low everywhere else in the major economies. Interest rates have risen sharply over the past few weeks, but as long as corporate earnings are growing and the rest of the macro picture is benign, I’m not bearish. The USD is also generally weak and that’s a plus for risk assets.

We are not dumping our stocks. I don’t think the markets will bounce back tomorrow; rather some sort of rally is going to occur over a several-day period or a gradual recovery off these levels. After hitting a 4-year high, the ten-year Treasury bond rallied sharply today — a sign of safe haven buying amid all the excitement. Lower bond yields will help market sentiment provided the bond market is not discounting a recession. I don’t think this is the case.

Rest assured we are following world markets very closely. I’ll keep you posted if market events continue to deteriorate and inform you of what we intend to do in the event of a possible economic recession, which may or may not be in the process of being discounted since Friday’s market action.  Thank you.

Eric Roseman  ENR Asset Management

For more details about how ENR Asset Management can help your portfolio contact Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

In other words, right now, all the systems we track, all based on math rather than stories, suggest that investors should hold on and look for buying opportunities.

Golden rule of investing number four seems to apply right now… #4: Do not panic.  Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.  You can do this when you have built a portfolio based on your liquidity needs and good value.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

Beat the Gambler Within


There are many factors in investing success.   Gambling is not one of them.  The best long term results comes from from a combination of value, balance and diversification.

If you try to time markets, you are gambling because know one knows when markets will shift. Even worse the odds are stacked against you.  Market insiders and big banks, brokers and traders have tricks they can use that’s to their advantage.

Good timing helps investing success, but timing needs to be based around each investors needs and liquidity, not their expectations of ups and downs in markets.  

Investors need the ability to set long term goals and create disciplines and they need to stick to them.   Otherwise investments are ships in the wind without anchor or sail.

Setting intelligent goals is not so easy though because our greatest strength, our language, can also be our greatest weakness.  This image at positivebusinessonline.com left me thinking about the strengths and weaknesses of language.

monkey

Our ability to work collectively through language is our greatest strength.

Yet every animal has some sort of language.  Monkeys for example have a language and they are social so they can act collectively.  Why don’t they make and have cell phones?

The difference is that humans are social animals, have language and imagination.  We can think and act upon things that don’t really exist, except in our imagination.   Our ability to create, speak about and collectively act upon fiction is humanity’s greatest strength (and weakness).

If I tried to train our hounds to give up a bowl of their food today for two bowls tomorrow, I would fail.  Our dogs, nor any animal can imagine a brighter future.  Even if a dog or monkey or cat could learn to sacrifice the now for some imagined future… do you think you could never instill this idea in a pack?

Humans run much of their lives based on shared, imagined fiction.

Take the company Apple as an example.  The idea of a company is pure fiction…. until enough people believe not only in the company, but in the concepts that companies exist.  Apple can buy, sell, create, hire, fire, make profits, or lose money, but its existence is all based on the figment of a large group’s collective imagination.

That fiction by the way produces some pretty nifty computers… and tablets and phones.

The existence of such myths depends on someone (or some group) telling effective stories and convincing a large group to believe the tale.

Over the centuries an incredibly complex network of stories has been woven… to such a degree that from the moment we can see and hear, we are taught to believe in myths.  We live in dual realities.  We are objective men, women and children combined with the imagined reality of Americans, Chinese, Russians, Europeans and such.   We are imbued with stories (education) that make the myths seem extremely concrete and real.

These beliefs in things that do not exist (except in our collective imagination) allow us to cooperate in complex and flexible ways.  Thus we have cell phones made by Apple.  Monkeys do not (though sometimes I feel that this is to the monkey’s advantage).

The more people that buy into a story, the more real it seems… such as money.

Money is a powerful myth with a message… “the more we have, the happier we’ll be”.

So we fuss and we bother and we work hard, sacrifice, trade and build an entire reality built around the idea of needing more.

This belief causes a bulk of the world’s population to set their goal as simply “having more… and more…. and more money”.  No amount of money ever seems enough.

This striving creates two imbalances.  First it restricts our ability to set realistic financial goals about what we really need.   Second, the continual striving interferes with the disciplines we might set.

Realistic goals are hard to set… even harder to keep when we are surrounded by so many stories that create fear and greed.

Whenever I catch myself being led astray by stories of profit or loss, I ground myself by asking this question?  “If I were one of the richest people in the world and knew I was dying within 30 seconds, and realized I had lived an unhappy life.  What would be my last thoughts?”

Our investing goals should be beyond just “having more”.  We get better results when our routines, habits  and disciplines are holistic… dedicated to having safe, meaningful investments that reduce stress and leave us time to pursue what’s really important to us individually in our lives.

We all have financial needs to be attended to.  Yet we should also want to make sure that what we all do, each day is meaningful and fulfilling as well as profitable.

So I ask…  How would you feel if in the last 30 seconds of your life you realized you were the richest person in the world and yet had lived an unhappy life?
 
The answer to this question can help us each enjoy slower investing that brings greater richness to life.

I was reminded of this fact last week in a Wall Street Journal book review of  “Kirk Kerkorian, ‘The Gambler’” (1).

The review explained how Kirk Kerkorian bought and sold and bought again—airlines, casinos, movie studios.

The long subtitle of “The Gambler” includes the claim that Kirk Kerkorian was “The Greatest Deal Maker in Capitalist History.” It is certainly true that the California billionaire, who died in 2015 at the age of 98, had a hand in a lot of major deals over his long and busy career,

The son of illiterate Armenian immigrants whose business ventures ended badly, Kerkorian grew up in California and dropped out of school in eighth grade. After stints in the Civilian Conservation Corps, the used-car business and the boxing ring, in 1940 he talked his way into flight school at the Happy Bottom Ranch and Riding Club, an establishment in the Mojave Desert run by a colorful Hollywood stunt pilot named Florence Barnes, and paid his tuition by milking cows and slopping hogs.

By 1968, he owned the Flamingo and Bonanza hotels, the land beneath Caesars Palace, and a second mortgage on the new Circus Circus.

 

At one point, according to Mr. Rempel, he owned nearly half the hotel rooms and casino floor space on the Strip.

Yet he was so shy that he rarely spoke in public, so secretive that when he applied for a credit card in 1996, at age 79, he was rejected for lack of a personal credit history.

Here is the paragraph that reminded me the importance of finding our own true, real goals:

In his extended old age, he was desperate for companionship and vulnerable to people who wanted his money.  You might have liked to have Kerkorian’s wealth, but most reasonably balanced human beings wouldn’t have liked to be him.

In our old age, do we want to have money, be desperate and vulnerable to people who want our money?  Or do we want to be truly rich, by having our finances solid and being surrounded by those we trust and love?
Don’t be a gambler.  Be an long term investor.
Trust and love… both figments of human imagination, are the most powerful currency.   These are assets that are way better than any paper or plastic or virtual currency.  Create financial plans based on finding value, diversification, that keeps trading costs low and leaves you time to enjoy life.  Whatever you make keep and have will be worth more.
Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Pension’s Worst Nightmare is Here… Now


Five facts determine a pension’s fate.   How much the contributions.  How much the investment return.  How much the withdrawals and when will they be drawn.

We are living with a currency time bomb. We have 284 days, 17 hours and 11 minutes to go.

Disaster?

“How much will the currency, that a pension distributes, be worth?”  This is the fifth, most important fact.

Oops…  284 days, 17 hours and 10 minutes.

If a pension pays out a worthless currency… the pension is worthless, a broken promise and sham that leaves living a shadow of what it was meant to be.  Yet pensions are locked in to one currency… because this is what they have to pay.

30 more seconds are gone.   We’ll be down to 284 days, 17 hours and 5 minutes (or even less depending on when you began reading) when you stop 5 minutes from now.

Tick tock… the clock is ticking.   Politicians are working by this clock and the bomb will ruin many lives.

We can avoid the ruin if we act now.

The timer was really set 70 years ago.   After WWII there was huge population explosion… economic expansion and prosperity that left the Western population expecting more.  The winning political system… democracy, favored politicians who promised more and more… later and later.

Later is now.   The timer has just about run out for pensions.

284 days, 17 hours and 9 minutes.

1,825 days ago the big wave of boomer retirements began.

Pensions were in a terrible state.  The great recession had reduced jobs and encouraged early retirement.  Withdrawals in pensions rose.  Contributions shrank.  Investment returns were terrible, even negative.

This was a pensions worst nightmare, but a strong and rising US dollar gave pensions hope as it slowed inflation down.   Investment returns have in recent years risen.  In 2017 returns averaged 11% or so for most pensions.

This did not solve the problem of underfunded pensions. 

A Scremento Bee article “CalPERS beats earnings target for first time in three years” points out how serious pension underfunding is and why it’s not likely to get better.

The article says:  The California Public Employees’ Retirement System rode a strong year in the stock market and private equity investments to earn a return rate of 11.2 percent for the fiscal year that ended June 30, the pension fund announced Friday morning.

CalPERS, which manages about $323 billion in assets, now has about 68 percent of the funds it would need if it had to pay all of the benefits it owes to retirees and public workers.

Senate, Democrat Richard Pan of Sacramento, said he was “certainly happy to see the return for this year, but it’s not a year-to-year thing.”

“I don’t think anyone is saying ‘One year and we’re all set,’ ” he said. “It’s about the long term and we continue to take steps at the state government to be sure we keep our pension system sound.”

A number of negative forces in 2018 could destroy pensions as they push the purchasing power of the US dollar down.

First, pensions should expect a lowered return on investments in 2018.  The US stock market might not crash (or it may), but growth is highly likely to slow significantly.

Second, interest rates will be slow to rise.

Third 2017 tax reductions will pump money into the economy now.  That looks good, BUT… the tax cut will increase the already swollen US deficit and debt by trillions.  This will be offset by economic growth… maybe… later.

In the meantime the national debt, now around $20 trillion, will get larger.  The Congressional Budget Office projects debt rising to 86% of GDP in 2026 and to a whopping 110% in 2036, exceeding the historical peak of 106% after World War II.

This is only manageable if  US dollar interest rates remain low.  The CBO calculates that the yield on the 10-year note will rise to 4.1% by 2026 from its current 1.5%.  That rise can push the government’s annual interest payments from $223 billion to $839 billion.  Government predictions are that within ten years, the higher interest rates mean that all federal corporate income tax collections would only cover a bit more than half of the interest.

The Congressional Budget Office figures that every one percent of interest will raise interest payments $160 billion per year.

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Fourth Debt Timing Problem

The timing of this growing US debt increase makes it a bigger problem.

Monday’s Wall Street Journal article “By Adding to the Debt, Tax Cuts Could Complicate Next Downturn” (2) points out the timing concern when it says:  In enacting a tax cut that is projected to raise annual federal-budget deficits to nearly $1 trillion in the coming years, Washington could be trading more growth now for the risk of more pain down the road.

The U.S. government has traditionally reduced interest rates, boosted spending or cut taxes when the economy contracts. Budget analysts warn that future policy makers would have less ammunition to take such actions during the next recession because tax changes are projected to push already-rising national debt levels even higher. That could make the next downturn more severe than it would otherwise be and put added pressure on the Federal Reserve to respond to future crises.

“While I’m always for reforming the tax code, the timing of this thing doesn’t make any sense,” said William Hoagland, a former budget adviser to Senate Republicans now at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, referring to the tax cuts signed into law by President Donald Trump in December.  “If we do actually have a downturn in the economy, what are the levers available from the federal government’s perspective?”

The big question is, “Will corporate tax cuts trickle down?” If so “Will the trickle be fast enough.”

The fifth and worst problem for pensions, is that the current political process is weakening the US dollar between now and this autumn’s midterm elections on November 6, 2018.  284 days, 17 hours and 7 minutes until the elections.

The Wall Street Journal article “As ‘America First’ Trade Focus Returns, The Dollar Is Still Too Strong” (3) says

In order to fully close the U.S. trade gap, one estimate suggests the greenback would need to fall another 10%

The Trump administration is shifting its focus back to “America First” trade policies. That could put the spotlight back on the U.S. dollar, which economists say still is still too strong even after the currency notched its worst year in a decade.

Economists at the Institute of International Finance estimated on Monday that the greenback remains about 10% overvalued despite a year-long slide that has driven the currency down 7% against a basket of 16 currencies tracked by the Wall Street Journal.

All these pressures are pushing down on the US dollar and pensions that pay in US dollars.  This gives us time as private investors.

For years the market has been voting for the greenback.  Eventually the gravity of US debt will weigh in and the US dollar will fall.  This will not be a good thing for investors who are tied to the buck.

The purchasing power of the greenback and dollar based pensions will drop even more.

We, as investors, can take advantage of these facts by finding good value outside the US dollar.

The portfolio (called the Pifolio) we manage at at the online broker Motif.com has risen 32.4% (blue line) this last year. That’s better than the S&P 500 (green).

motif

This portfolio is composed entirely of Country ETFs that invest in the top value, non US dollar denominated markets defined by the Keppler Asset Management value analysis.

There are two important facts.  The first fact is that the value of these stock markets is twice that of the US market.  The MSCI US index is now selling at 3.29 rice to book value.  The top value markets are selling at less than half the price, at 1.58 times book.

keppler

The second important fact is the current fall of the US dollar.  In 2017, the Pifolio is up 32.4%, but only up 20.4% in local currencies and 15.1% in euro.   About half of the 2017 increase is due to the falling US dollar.  This gives room for these non US good value shares to rise much more.

The five forces listed above are at work… right now and the political process will attempt to magnify them until at least November.

Dollar linked pensions cannot take advantage of this fact.   They have to pay pensioners in US dollars… now.

Pensions that invest in other currencies but pay in dollars face forex risk… now, because they are seeing surging demands.

You and I, as private investors, can invest in good value, non dollar equities and wait, if we do not need the money right now.

 

The significance of the dollar’s fall is that the weakness is taking place while the US stock market is skyrocketing and U.S. companies are bringing home overseas profits.  These factors are creating a demand for the dollar.

The greenback should be rising instead of falling.

The Bretton Woods agreement that came into effect after WWII fixed exchange rates of most currencies in the world.  This agreement made the dollars as good as gold, but like pensions now, the agreement then was not sustainable.

The system dissolved in August 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon “temporarily” suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold. Attempts to revive the fixed rates failed, and by March 1973 the major currencies began to float against each other.

The chart below from macrotrends.net shows how the dollar versus other currencies has risen and fallen since.

Non dollar investments made during US dollars peaks have gained astounding extra profits over the past four decades.

We are in this position now, but the clock is ticking.

macroeconomics.com

The purchasing power of the dollar has fallen steadily.  What a dollar bought at the end of WWII typically costs near $20 now.  Regretfully dollar based pensions (and Social Security) are locked into paying out US dollars now.   It is much harder for them to take the forex risk of investing in non dollar assets.

Private investors do not have this pressure and can easily gain extra profit with Top Value country ETFs in non dollar equity markets.

For the next 284 days, 17 hours and 5 minutes, political forces will  strive for a weaker dollar that stimulates US exports.   This will temporarily make US jobs better, but those who are living on  pensions will see their purchasing power fall.

Time is running out and the time to protect against the dollar’s weakness is now.

Gary

The Huge 2018 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2018.

I hope I am wrong.

According to Treasurydirect.com, as of October 31, 2017 the cost of interest on  the total US public debt of $20,467,375,664,755.32 (20 trillion+) was $24,411,569,716.36 (24 billion+).

The 36 cents isn’t much of a problem.  The other 20 trillion is.

This is good news and bad… the rock and the hard spot.  The bad news is that the rock (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… not quite into 2018 and debt has shot past 20 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government can borrow and borrow and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest this year will amount to around $483 billion on the 20 trillion of debt.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9,229,172,659,218.31 (9 trillion +) the interest that year was $451,154,049,950.63 (451 billion +).

Interest payments in 2017 are 7% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 100% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

Here is the very hard spot.  The downside is that low interest has reduced earnings of investors.  Low interest has ruined the lifestyles of many who have retired.

Here is what happened and why the problem may exist for quite a bit longer.

If investors can increase the interest rate to 6% from the lousy 1% (or so) they earn now, they gain 1,263% more over 30 years.  Anyone living off interest, who is drawing down their portfolio over 20 years, makes 57% more annual income every year.

But if investors get 6% interest instead of 1%, the government has to also pay more on it debt.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.  

Rising interest rates, that we would like to see as investors, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest goes to 6% it is like the $20+ trillion national debt  rising to 100 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increases, a 5% increase in interest rates would increase the national debt by five times.

A tax increase?  The current tax act being proposed reduces, not increases, revenue.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future. This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now.

Interest rates create a massive problem on two sides of the same coin.  Raise rates the massive national debts ruins the purchasing power of currencies.  Keep interest rates low and capitalism does not work for investors.  Politicians simply borrow more (on our behalf) but for their benefit.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2018.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2018 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2018 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2018”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2018” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2018”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

To encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349.

Save $418.78.  Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

(1) www.sacbee.com: CalPERS 11% return

(2) www.wsj.com: By adding to the debt tax cuts could complicate next downturn

(3) wsj.com: As America first trade focus returns the dollar is still too strong

(4) www.wsj.com: Dollar drops to lowest level since September

(5)  www.wsj.com: US dollar falls ahead of budget showdown

Where Will the Stock Market Go Now?


Will the Dow continue to rise to 27,000?  Or will it suddenly crash?

Are there other investments that are better than US shares?

Answers to these questions will affect the lives, lifestyles and finances of hundreds of millions of investors.  For some, these are literally life and death questions.

Yet the answers are unknown.

However, subscribers to our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) gained some good clues a couple of days ago.  Our study of the January 2018 Keppler Asset Management Good Value Developed Market Analysis reviewed the Model Top Value Developed Model Portfolio which rose 31.0 %  in 2017.

The table below shows how this Portfolio compares to selected indices at the end of December 2017.

The analysis is based on important variables such as current numbers for book value and 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables.

Subscribers saw the MSCI World Index at its all-time high valuation at the end of the last millennium and at its all-time low valuation in September 1974.

keppler

This chart answers the question “Are there other investments that are better than US shares?”

The suggestion in these numbers is that the Top Value Developed markets (these markets are shown below) are, on average, twice the value of US shares.  The MSCI indices of these markets sell at an average price to book of 1.58, less than half the US MSCI Index of 3.29.

But a bigger question is “will any stock market continue to rise in 2018”?    Will all equity markets fall when the US market corrects?

Keppler’s analysis suggests over the next four to five years, all markets on average will rise.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting 25 years ago at the end of 1993.

These numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous fifteen years moving forward in monthly increments and thus adjusting steadily to an ever-changing norm.

kepler

This implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the KAM Equally Weighted World Index is expected to rise at a compound annual total return estimate of 3.3 % in local currencies — down from 3.9 % last quarter.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 8.1 % (down from 8.8 % three months ago), while the lower-band estimate which has turned negative in the second quarter 2017 for the first time since March 2001, indicates a compound annual total return of -2.3 % (down from -1.7 % three months ago).

This suggests that on average, over the next four years, equity investments in the World Morgan Stanley Capital Index will most likely rise, but not dramatically.  If there is a correction, it is not likely to be severe.

US shares, or maybe equities all over the world, may drop severely in 2018, or not.  If they do, the research above suggests that the correction will not be sustained and three to five years from now, equity prices, overall, will be higher than they are now.

There is another clue that suggests some equity price stability.

Keppler wrote:

After bottoming out in November 2016, book value, cash flow, earnings and dividends of the KAM Equally Weighted World Index have improved markedly from quarter to quarter in 2017.

As of the end of December 2017, annual book value growth stands at 6.0 %, cash flow is up 10.1 %, while earnings soared 21.4 % and dividends advanced 9.3 % in the last 12 months.

The lower (compared to earnings) dividend growth means that dividend payments have not kept up with rising earnings. Thus, the payout ratio, which peaked in November 2016 at 67.6 % — matching the high pay-out ratios at past recession troughs — has declined continuously to 57.0 % at the end of December 2017.  In other words, dividends not only seem to be safe, but could even increase their growth rate to keep up with rising earnings.

Rising dividends normally helps stabilize the price of shares.

Given the low interest environment, Keppler’s total return expectations over the next three to five years continue to be attractive.

This study suggests that US shares may be overvalued, but equity markets on average are not.

Developed markets (as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index) are now undervalued by 20% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index based on traditional valuation measures.

The Top Value Markets shown below are an even better deal as they are undervalued by 27%.

The number one golden rule of  investing is “There is always something we do not know“.   Investing always has risk, but when we use math to study financial reality and compare value, we can dramatically increase our expectations of maximum profit over the long term.

Gary

Investing Beyond Cinderella

 

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the he clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

tradestops

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 43.15%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

At the beginning of 2018 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

This portfolio has outperformed the US market (S&P 500) in 2017 as the chart below shows.

My portfolio blue.  S&P 500… green.

motif

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Next year I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary