Tag Archive | "Value investing"

Why Vary Your News?


Here is how to not be exceptional.   “May you live in interesting times?” could be a Chinese curse, but one of the greatest spices in life is anticipation.  Where would we be without the things we look forward to?  Yes, we can be and should be happy in the here and now, but only by accepting the mysteries of life as they unfold with acceptance and joy.

Listen to only what you want to hear or what is easy and not challenging are likely ways to stagnate and become part of the norm.  Letting someone else decide what you should hear for their benefit and not yours is a certain way to become part of the norm.  When we are normal in a sick society, it means we are sick!

gary scott

I have this program on my desktop to broaden my information horizons.

Most of us want the profits from our investing, the results from our business and really our lives to be extraordinary.   Proof of this fact?  The bumper sticker “My child is an honor student”.

A Scientific American article “The psychology of Social” adds more scientific evidence when it says:  Nobel Laureate economist, John Harsanyi, said that “apart from economic payoffs, social status seems to be the most important incentive and motivating force of social behavior.” The more noticeable status disparities are, the more concerned with status people become, and the  differences between the haves and have-nots have been extremely pronounced during the economic recession of recent years.”

Yet a growing fundamental of life that most of us are using reduces the odds that we’ll have anything except results that are ordinary and mundane.

Paths to fame and fortune are built on ordinary.  Spotting distortions that create trends allows us to see where and when the thundering herd is wrong.  Spotting imbalance allows us to beat competition and invest in or offer in business things that are most needed (and valuable) while the majority deal instead in the low cost middle ground.

When others control what we read and hear, our intellect, experience  and wisdom are dimmed.  When we let algorithms choose what in-formation we view based on our past activity, we become lost in the crowd.  The input we read, listen to and watch may seem interesting because smart people have figured out how to define our tastes.  But the spice of our own interests is easily the ultimate blandness created by extreme mediocrity.

Algorithms are simply computer programs that calculate what is likely we’ll like based on the norm.  Algorithms are all about average, normal, mediocre, common, humdrum, middling.  Ho hum.

We reduce the odds of having anything exceptional or extraordinary when we let a computer program determine what we get to hear and see.

Yet there are teams of really smart people, almost everywhere,  working on ways to figure us out and direct us to see and hear what is in their best interests, not ours.  These controllers of our information are dictated by money and profit, theirs, not what is best for us.

Algorithms make it easy to miss what’s really important.   Revenue dictates the editorial decisions of almost everything.  Numbers are so important that most media continually decide which news is most likely to attract readers rather than which news is most important.

Take, for example, the Wall Street Journal.  This is a good ethical publication though we have to remember that it is owned by the Rupert Murdoch organization, the same people who own Fox News.  They publish three editions- Asia, Europe and the USA.  I take all three because even the finest institutions publish the news they think will sell, not those which are most vital.

For example right now, the mainstream media are a bit caught up with news about the current US government administration.  This is hot news in the US.  They consequently ignore some really important news.

Here is a good example of how this can cause us to miss important news.  Recently I was very interested in the discovery of a new type of matter called “Time Crystals”.  I picked this up in my early morning read of the Wall Street Journal.

The article said (underline is mine)  In regular crystals—an ice cube or a diamond, for instance—atoms are arranged in a repeating spatial pattern.  In time crystals, patterns repeat in time instead of in space.

The research is early stage, but “anytime you discover a new phase of matter, it opens doors to new theories and potential applications,” said Chetan Nayak, a principal researcher.

The time crystals also maintain quantum coherence, or synchrony between units, according to the studies. That could ultimately be important for building quantum machines, scientists said.

Wow, a new form of matter!  This could be really, really huge, bigger than radio, bigger than electricity, bigger than cars, bigger than the internet.  Maybe not, but now I know so I can research and watch and learn this huge revelation in our fascinating world of science.

But this incredible revelation was not in the Wall Street Journal’s US edition.

Instead there was an an article headlined: “Ivanka Trump’s Landlord Is a Chilean Billionaire Suing the U.S. Government”

I don’t think I need to say more.

What to do?

There is little we can do to escape the marketing decisions that publications make as to which news will be broadcast where we are.   There is not much we can do to escape the judgements of algorithms when we use broadband.   Here are several really simple steps we can take to broaden our information horizons.

First, subscribe to publications (in print or online) where the subscribers (not the information) are in different parts of the world.   As mentioned, I take three editions of the Wall Street Journal.  Plus I had a program created (shown above) for my desktop  that gives me one click links to publications where the subscribers are in different places, countries, regions and continents.

Second, when it comes to investing, I rely on mathematically based financial information news to find good value instead of the economic conjecture that is in almost all the news.   I track three sources of financial thinking at ENR Asset Management, Tradestops and Keppler Asset Management to find conclusions about value created by distortions and trends.  See more about these sources below.

Third, subscribe to varied information, that interests you and does not.  For example, I subscribe to blogs about gardening and growing food, water, weather, toys (I have no interest really), stocks, high fashion cloths (again no interest at all), vision, and scientific advances.   I continually shift the mix and open and click through sites I have no interest in and do not read.  This befuddles the algorithms and increases the odds that the information that flows to me will be random… like life.

This brings a delight of unplanned, impromptu, unbidden data flowing to me.  Like the gurgle of a murmuring creak, this erratic stream adds serendipity into the brook of information that expands my thinking and who I am.   Life is a walk along a random path.  Loosening the restrictions on what we learn allows the flukes, the times when we have lucky breaks by stumbling upon the unexpected to fall in place so displays of pure dumb luck can grace our lives.

The marketing geniuses that run the advertising universe online and in print rely on patterns.  They want to fit you into a mold.  When you break the average cast and let the grander designs of nature lead us, we gain freedom and independence of thought and can enjoy the frightful delight of evolution in our world.

Gary

(1) www.scientificamerican.com:  The psychology of social

How Fake News Can Make You Rich

Fake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy.  But their is a silver lining in phony information.  The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.

Let me explain why…

Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.   This is a global investing fact.  The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news.   In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash.  The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.

Consider these facts.  The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011.  The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.  A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown.  By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy.  Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.

The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.

The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US.  The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016.  The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar.  This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA.  This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years.  This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.

There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade.  America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.   Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.

Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead.  Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs  that compare their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.

The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.

The course teaches:

  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.

Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. 

Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops.  Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Borrow Low and Deposit High.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Never run out of money.  Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.   Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

In this way we get to learn together.  Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi.  My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.

The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

Learn Low Cost Trading

Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs.  One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing.  The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.

In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis. 

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the three reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

How to Price Gold and Silver


What is the real value of gold?  Everyone should have a holding in precious metals, but as an investor who started accumulating (and speculating in) gold almost 50 years ago, I have learned (often the hard way) that precious metals should only be accumulated when their price makes them a good value.

This begs the question, “When does gold’s price represent good value?”   Today I am sending you a deep analysis, based on this 50 years of experience, of gold’s pricing in terms of inflation that helps answer this question.   This research is part of a $39.99 report, but I am sending it to you free and without obligation.

gold

Cuban 1/10th ounce gold coins.

A collapsing US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth.  Yet there are many signs that the greenback’s strength is in serious jeopardy. 

One frightening statistic is the $502.25 billion trade deficit that the US logged in 2016.  This is the largest deficit in years.  Many factors such as growing federal budget deficits and low national savings mean that trade deficits are likely to widen even more.

The growing federal budget deficits also increase the national debt.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow is likely to come back down.  National debt probably will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and according to the Wall Street Journal, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt we are looking at is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790 but does not include state and local debt.

And, it doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.

And, these dreadful numbers do not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Federal National Debt per person is about $60,923.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!

How can America pay this back?  The answer is they cannot.  Payback however actually does not matter.  No one expects the US to pay back their debt.

Investors do expect the US to pay interest on its debt and this is where a big really problem looms…  in rising national debt service During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.  The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to  a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

This is why investors need to own gold and precious metals.  However because metals are commodities and markets fluctuate for many reasons,  gold is not always a good value.

Good value investors look for “ideal conditions” before they invest long term in gold because there are times when a rare distortion in gold’s pricing occurs and the price drops to a point (that history has shown) where it will “almost always” rise.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is risk that a basic fundamental has changed and the distortion will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.  There is always risk.  Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why we should always seek a price that represents good value.

The way to look for Gold’s ideal price is to compare it to inflation.  

This is not as easy as it would seem because inflation is hard to define.  Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is also difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce before and at the end of WWII and this fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.   This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real the price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors distort the accuracy of the answer to… “How much is gold really worth now?”  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and costs of living.

First we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times.  The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of this precious metals in 1942 to buy a car, now you could do it.  A house maybe not, but the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold/cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times as well.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage 16 times.  Bread 21 times.  Sugar 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for a Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  That’s a question for another time.

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued at a price of $1,225.   If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225 it is likely a fair value, priced about where it should be in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance, according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above,  prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.  Gold is a fair value at around $1,225.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.  Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  The the inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we get perhaps a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index.

inflation

In this comparison gold’s actual price is almost the same as its adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225.  This is the premise we use in our good value investing course Pi.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential draw downs, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times.  They also remind us not to catch a gold fever when we read claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  Eventually the huge American debt will fire up inflation again and that will eventually turn into mega inflation.  Then gold prices may shoot that high.  In the interim whenever gold drops below $1,225, its probably a good value and investors who accumulate below that price will do well.

There are other ways to cash in on precious metals.  One approach is to keep an eye on the Gold Silver ratio.  When the Gold Silver Ratio reaches 80 and gold is at or below $1,225 a speculation in silver is most likely to be a good value.

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way.   The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

silver

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

There are numerous ways to invest in gold and silver, as a short term speculation for quick profit or for long term accumulation to combat the fall of the dollar or whatever currency you hold.   America is not the only country with an overvalued currency.  Whichever approach you choose, if you apply these value principles,  your odds of increasing profit and avoiding serious loss improve.

Gary

Why Financial News?


A great deal of economic news is opinion, conjuncture or based on statistics that are often falsified or misconstrued.   Plus the news we see is prejudiced by what commerce thinks we want to see.

Advertising revenue is the driving source of news.  Audience determines ad rates and ad rates determine profits so all the news is aimed at attracting readers, not necessarily informing them.

Plus a lot of economic news is unreliable, or so unusable that it will just waste our time.

Let’s look at an example of a very recent economic news about the price of gold and the US dollar.

gold chart

30 day gold chart from Kitco showing dollar price of gold from Feb 22 to March 1, 2017. (1)

A February 24, Wall Street Journal article said “Dollar Edges Higher With Trump Speech Looming” (2).

Then  the Wall Street Journal article of  February 25, 2017, says “Gold rises as dollar falls” (3) said:  “Gold prices rose to their highest level in 3½ months Friday, lifted by dovish expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases and political uncertainty in the U.S. and abroad.”

The Kitco gold chart above shows that yes gold did rise and fall, but the information was basically useless.  Gold’s price (in dollars) was falling when the Journal suggested it was rising and on February 25th gold’s price was falling when the Journal said it was rising.

More importantly the rising and falling was nominal.  Only huge leveraged traders could have earned more than the cost of trading gold that week.  Overall, for the week, the price of gold had a blip and then ended almost exactly where it began.

To have read this economic news was a waste of time.  Even worse, to have acted on what was written would have been a waste of money.

We need to use mathematically based financial news to make investment decisions.

The excerpt from our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) outlines how investors use the Pi strategy in up to seven layers of tactics based around Financial News.

Pi Tactic #1:  Determine purpose of investing and use math to reveal good value in stock markets around the world.

Pi Tactic #2:  Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3:  Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy, sell or hold these good value markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with “ideal conditions”.

Pi Tactic  #6:  Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

Here is another excerpt from the course that shows how to use math to determine “ideal conditions” for the price of gold.  The mathematical ratio to work with for gold is its price in relation to inflation.  The goal is not to determine if it will go up or down in the short term.  Gold’s price will rise and fall, sometimes too much, sometimes not enough.  When investors have a value line to determine when the price is too low, then accumulating gold for the long term increases the odds of profit.  This excerpt shows how Pi determines the value of gold.

#1:  Gold price to inflation.  This is perhaps the most speculative of the ratios since a meaningful inflation rate is hard to define. Statistics can be misleading.  In the Silver Dip Report 2017 there is an analysis of inflation that shows the median house price has increased 49 times but the average American house has changed greatly since 1944.

Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is also difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce at the end of WWII.  The fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.  This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors can distort the accuracy of the picture. How much is gold really worth now?  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and cost of living.

First, we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times. The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car, you could do it.  A house maybe not, but again the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage:  16 times.  Bread:  21 times.  Sugar: 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee:  11 times.  Eggs: 13 times increase.  Milk: 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  That’s a question for another time.

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued.  If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225, it is likely at a fair value, about where it should be priced in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance, according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above, prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However, because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.

Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand, gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  Then the inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However, since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we perhaps have a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index from 2015 till now.

inflation

In this comparison, gold’s actual price is almost the same as its adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225.  This is the premise we use at Pi.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential drawdowns, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times. They also remind us not to catch gold fever when we read claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  Unless inflation turns into mega inflation.

We are living in a high tide of news.  News can flood our every waking minute if we let it.  When it comes to investing, if we cut out the economic news and rely on mathematically based financial news instead, we gain time and reduce the frantic nature of our modern world.  This can reduce investment trading costs, help ease the behavior gap most investors suffer.  Turning off the economic news makes life less stressful and more comfortable and profitable as well.

Gary

(1) Kitco gold charts

(2)  www.wsj.com/articles/dollar edges higher with Trump speech looming

(3) www.wsj.com: Gold rises as dollar falls

How Fake News Can Make You Rich

Fake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy.  But their is a silver lining in phony information.  The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.

Let me explain why…

Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.   This is a global investing fact.  The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news.   In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash.  The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.

Consider these facts.  The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011.  The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.  A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown.  By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy.  Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.

The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.

The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US.  The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016.  The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar.  This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA.  This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years.  This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.

There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade.  America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.   Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.

Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead.  Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs  that compare their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.

The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.

The course teaches:

  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.

Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. 

Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops.  Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Borrow Low and Deposit High.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Never run out of money.  Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.   Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

In this way we get to learn together.  Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi.  My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.

The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

Learn Low Cost Trading

Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs.  One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing.  The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.

In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis. 

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the three reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Distortions Create Real Estate Opportunity


The big distortions in three forces create an opportunity.   There is a growing population who want affordable living. There has been a huge drift to living on or near the coast pushing up coastal real estate prices.  Costs of living on the coast due to tax, insurance and interest have been rising.

This thinking led Merri and me to move inland seven years ago and buy increasing amounts of real estate in Central Florida.

A recent Wall Street Journal article “Mortgage-Rate Rise Hits Coastal Property Markets Hardest”(1)  confirms this strategy.

The report says: “Disparity in monthly payment increases reflects a deep divide between the nation’s priciest and least expensive areas.  Pricey real-estate markets on coasts are bearing the brunt of the recent rise in mortgage rates and are likely to feel more pain as rates climb, housing economists say.”

The article tells how an analysis by the National Association of Realtors found that home buyers in coastal areas are seeing impacts of the rate jump.

The article says: “It’s sort of a double whammy,” said Danielle Hale, NAR’s managing director of research.  “At a time when apartment rents are climbing quickly, home prices and mortgage rates also are going up, making it tougher to get into the housing market”, she said.

The report Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere has an entire chapter on two special inland real estate opportunities that are cashing in on this trend.

See more about the report below.

Gary

(1)  www.wsj.com: Mortgage rate rise hits coastal property markets hardest

A Growing Deception

While the world was distracted by the American politics, a more important power struggle is taking place.   If that struggle is lost what’s left of our privacy, the safety of our food supply, the control over our health, the safety of our money and even the sanctity of our opinions and thoughts could be lost.

Almost half of America’s voters rejected the postwar global economic order. This could leave a cloud of uncertainty over the U.S. and world economies, that create market risks at any time.  Yet the bigger danger continues to grow.   This struggle is taking place, right now.   You are reading about a tiny part of this conflict daily in the news.  Part of the danger is that most of the clash is hidden from view.  The public does not see underneath the visible spin nor do they understand the truly horrible consequences that losing this struggle brings.

The great risk comes because there is an association forming that could not only impact health care, nutrition and the environment, but can control what you read on the internet, see over cell phones, watch on TV and what trends in social media.  In short everything you write or say could be used  to control what you hear and read.

The warning shot, that could be seen, was the merger between Bayer and Monsanto.  This union is horrible enough, yet is only the tip of the iceberg as there are seven companies involved in a more sinister plot.

The momentum of this dangerous alliance has picked up much faster than anticipated.   I began researching and preparing a report “Learn Anywhere, Earn Everywhere” last month when the Bayer-Monsanto merger was the big deal.   Bayer and Monsanto are two of the seven firms involved in this almost invisible take-over of our food and medical services as well as the internet, cell phones and TV.  I started researching when I found the depth of the Bayer-Monsanto merger.  I was truly concerned and shocked because my research discovered that the consolidation of Bayer and Monsanto is not the biggest merger nor the most dangerous by far.

I miscalculated how much time we have.  I went to work on the report right away, taking my time to delve deeply, but even before I have finished the report, events have begun to heat up.  The pace of this hidden unification has increased.  Now another merger is taking place, far more destructive and the alliance has an incredible lobby program working to make sure that the deal goes through.

A triad of three huge concerns and four smaller ones with hundreds of billions of dollars have built one of the most formidable lobbying operations in Washington.  Nearly 100 registered lobbyists are already on retainer and they include former members of Congress.   One company in this heptagon is also the largest donor to federal lawmakers.  The donations we know of equal more than $11 million to 374 of the House’s 435 members and 85 of the Senate’s 100 members in this election cycle.

This deadly seven point affiliation is likely to snake into almost every part of our livelihood.  One part of the cartel will increase our dependence on modified food that can purposely increase our needs for pharmaceuticals manufactured and sold at outrageous prices by another arm of the group.  The organizations will know more about us than any other group in existence.  They will (in fact they already are) act as spies for the government.  This amalgamation will control what ads we see, the products we buy, listen into our phone calls and even monitor and influence what we see on TV.

Sadly most of the public will not even know that this fusion has taken place.  Life will appear to go on as normal.  They won’t even see the change as what’s left of their good life which could be drained away by corporate malfeasance.

This is why I am rushing a report to you so you can be one of the few who avoid the ruin of this alliance and even gain rather than lose what’s left.  The report contains seven steps we can take to gain benefits and protection from this cartel.

Here is some background.  At the beginning of the 20th century, Carl Duisberg, the head of Bayer, created a profit sharing cartel from three firms BASF, Bayer and Agfa, called the Dreibund (Triple Alliance) or little IG.

This German chemical association dominated commerce everywhere under the name of IG Farben, the largest company in Europe, the 4th largest anywhere and the largest chemical company in the world.

Because “Power Corrupts” this company morphed into something truly evil before and during the Second World War.

After WWII IG Farben was considered so morally corrupt it could not be allowed to continue to exist and was split into its original constituent companies.  Today Agfa, BASF, Sanofi and Bayer remain.

This is where facts become truly scary.  Some of these very same companies have merged with other mega concerns to create a new American Dreibund (a Triple Alliance dominating the USA).   This new cartel has such power it can take control of your food, your medicine and even influence if not control what you read and the information you access for health and wealth.  Even worse, they can monitor everything you do and give it to others in government and business as well.

From a political point of view we cannot do much about this alliance.   The cartel has hundreds of billions and hundreds of lobbyists.  They are making their big move right now, to take advantage of the election distraction.  They know that right after the election politicians are willing to accept bad news because it will be forgotten in four years.  In addition their greatest enemy in the government has only a couple of months left as the head of the Federal agency that will fight this cartel.

Only a few people will know how to take advantage of the inadvertent advantages we can gain from the results of this alliance.

The sooner we act, the greater the benefits.   This is why I want to rush my newest report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” to you.  This report shares how to protect what you have from this coalition that is taking over mainstream media, our food supply as well as our medical history, health care and communications.

Fortunately a loophole can set you free.  You can protect what you have and actually improve your situation, a lot.  Merri and I have already jumped though the loophole and want to share why and how you should too.

How to Gain Extra Freedom – While Almost Everyone Loses Theirs.  Become a Pruppie!

May I coin a new word, Pruppie?

We all know about preppers.  They believe that the world, as we know it, is about to end.  And we also know about Uppies, upward professionals as in Yuppies, young upward professionals.  Uppies expect their world to get better.

The reality is that our worlds have changed and for most of us, there is still great opportunity for a better lifestyle, yet the preppies could be right.

I invite you to join Merri and me as Pruppies, those who expect the world to get better and live and earn based on that expectation but enjoy a progressive lifestyle of freedom that also happens to prepare us for bad times as well as good.

Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper anyway.  We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

For example in this report, you’ll see how to make your dining room table bring you more control, more time, more income and more freedom.  After all, what can be more accessible than a dining room table?

ecuador-banks

You’ll even learn how to turn dining room tables into income and tax deductions as we have with these dining room tables we build out of local wood.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers the American Dreibund has planned for the public.  The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, has continued to grow.  There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also works well in disaster scenarios.

Let me provide one simple, concrete example.  Ginseng.  This is a great health root.  The demand is growing especially in China.  At times good dried Ginseng sells for $1,000 a pound!  This is an incredible and easy crop to grow.   The less care you give it, the more valuable it can become.  Yet if everything goes south, the health qualities will be good to have and make it an excellent barter item.  Once you know what to do with ginseng, it’s easy to grow in your back year.

Even better one of the best kept secrets is that ginseng and 125 other medicinal crops that are currently unsustainable but can be grown on land  that is extraordinarily cheap.

goldenseal ginseng

Ginseng growing in our back yard.  I know about growing ginseng through experience and explain why and how in the report.

There are are specific places that reduce your living expenses, easily increase your income, make you smarter, healthier and provide tax benefits as well. 

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes these places special and seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar spots of opportunity.

Here are some of the experiences this report shares:

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not).

The report is very specific because it is about what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning globally.

  • Learn about the magic of the north facing slope.   This is where Merri and I live almost half of our time.  North facing mountain land is some of the least expensive in the world but has hidden values that the report reveals.  There is a lot of this land and a lot of hidden value that you can tap.   When we bought our Blue Ridge farm (252 acres) I mentioned this to my Swiss banking friend.  “That’s bigger than the entire village where I live!” was his response.  Smalltown USA offers a last chance at having a lot of space.  By living in two Smalltown places there are enormous tax advantages as well.  One step in the system saves Merri and me over $28,345 in taxes a year.

The report shows how to buy cheap north facing slopes and create an income producing tiny home for $29,000 or less.

If you lack the $29,000 to invest, a start up using tents is even less.  These are tipis we put up at our farm before we built our first tiny home.  Learn how they can create tens of thousands of dollars in income for you.

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

  • See ways that small businesses like Tipi rentals can create BIG tax savings as well as extra income.  For more than 30 years Merri and I have enjoyed a strong six figure income, some years more, in the millions.  Yet there have been very few years when we had to pay federal income tax.  The report lays out a three structure program and how it is used when you are in school (up to age 30), then from 25 to 50, 50 to 70  and beyond 70.   Learn why Chapter C corporations and pensions can be better than the normally recommended Chapter S.  See how new mileage log rules gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions using IRS Form 4562.  Using a two-vehicle strategy you can gain $12,976 in new deductions even if you do not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny on your car.
  • See how a greenhouse can help you eat better and be healthier, plus provide income and a tax deduction and be funded by a government grant.

gary-scott-farming

Our North Carolina greenhouse.

gary scott greenhouse

Our Florida greenhouse.

  • There are similar benefits from having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587, even if your desk is a dining room table.  The report also shows how your dining room table can become an actual income producer as its creates a huge tax deduction at the same time, not to mention a great place to eat, work and lay out plans for a brighter, safer more lucrative and enjoyable future.
  • Living in this environment is also healthier, economically as well as physically.  You’ll see in the report how researchers at Harvard found an amazing correlation between living in conditions found on north facing slopes, longevity and mental health.  The researchers were quite surprised by this strong correlation that also extended into mental health.  In addition to feeling better, reducing stress and having more Joie de Vivre the places outlined in “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” can help you avoid hospitals, high cost disease management (aka health care) and BIG pharma while providing an investment opportunity in three plants that have some of the fastest growing demand in natural health care.  These three plants are just one of seven business opportunities that can create multiple streams of income.
  • How changes in cell phone and internet technology eliminated the need to be in one place.   An old law that creates new opportunity for small business in small towns is available to everyone.
  • Use the specific search and purchase guide.  Construction plans are included that show how to generate first tier income that leads to five, second tier avenues of earnings.
  • How to pay off old debt and avoid new debt by avoiding spurts and embracing value. 
  • Learn seven skills that will always have value.  See how to turn First Aid, medicinal plants, hospitality, food, trees, alternate energy and writing to sell into everlasting, low stress wealth.

merrily farms

This pond at our farm is a pleasure but also helps create a safe, healthy food supply and creates a tax deduction as well.

My Guarantee

This may be the most important report I have written in 50 years.  The information is certainly the most urgent.  Do not delay.  The risks are upon us right now and you’ll understand how the final steps of the alliance are taking place as you read the current news.

To take any risk out of gaining this urgent information with my full satisfaction or money back guarantee.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.  I guarantee you can ask for a full refund any time within 60 days and I’ll refund your payment in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the reports as my thanks for ordering it.

Order the “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report”  $39.99. Click here.

Gary

Secrets of a Boring Investing Strategy


The biggest secret of the most boring investment strategy is the most exciting of all.

George Soros said it: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money.  Good investing is boring.”

With this thought in mind, in 2015 I started a course that teaches a slow, good value investing strategy due to what my fifty years of global investing experience has shown me.  There are seven reasons why most of us should learn this strategy.

The seventh reason, one so ignored by investment advisors that it’s almost secret, is the most important of all.

First, this type of slow, good value investing  has the highest long term profit potential.  Second, it is the safest way to invest.  Third, and one reason slow value investing is safe and profitable is that it helps avoid the behavior gap.  Fourth, this is one of the easiest, least expensive ways to invest, even for the smallest investor.  Fifth, and this is important, the strategy makes it almost impossible for the establishment to cheat us.  Sixth, when rare ideal conditions come together, there are margin benefits that can add spice to short term performance for investors who want to speed up the process.

Seventh, and perhaps the most important secret, is that this strategy takes very little time.   Purposeful, good value investors have more time to earn and control income with their own business.

Long term success in building and maintaining wealth are determined by comfort and control.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are doing the best we can to serve a valuable purpose, regardless of how events unfold.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to under- perform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  When we combine the income, from our own fulfilling business, with slow, worry free, good value investing, we bridge the gap.

The research is clear.  Growing happiness comes from achieving goals, not just getting or being rich.  When the process of making money is divorced from a long term strategy of completing fulfilling missions, the process of investing is more likely to engender fear and unhappiness, than a feeling of fulfillment and security.

Numerous studies show that wealth alone, especially through inheritance or the lottery or sale of a business often causes more grief than happiness.  A big chuck of cash can stop the momentum of purpose.  Without a feeling of forward momentum, we can become depressed.

Nature hates a vacuum, and it hates lack of motion.  No object can stay at rest.  When anythings stops, nature will apply entropy, the motion of deterioration.  Here is the wonderful part of nature’s act, the motion can be slow… as long as it is headed in a meaningful way.  Simple progress overcomes depression.  A sense of forward motion, regardless of how small, is all we need.  Minor victories are nearly as psychologically powerful as major breakthroughs.  A lot of tiny wins is often better than one big one.

Small can be better than big.  Psychologist Karl Weick at the University of Michigan describes “Small Wins” as “concrete, complete, implemented outcome of moderate importance”.   He wrote a paper, “Small Wins” (1) for American Psychologist in 1984  that said: “Once a small win has been accomplished, forces are set in motion that favor another small win.”

Those suffering a lack of momentum, feel discouraged by feeling of a lack of control. “Small wins are controllable opportunities that produce visible results and return a sense of control”.

Often a big problem cannot be solved in a big way anyhow because big problems overwhelm their solutions.  Take for example, the problem of hunger or crime. These are described in Karl Weick’s paper.

“To reduce domestic  hunger we grow more food, which requires greater use of energy for farm equipment fertilizers,and transportation, adding to the price of energy, which raises the cost of food, putting it out of the price range of the needy.  To solve the problem of soaring  crime  rates, cities expand the enforcement  establishment,  which draws funds away from other services such as schools, welfare, and job training…all which leads to more poverty, addiction, prostitution, and more  crime.”

Small wins gradually build enthusiasm, experience, confidence and skill.   They are stepping stones to feeling better and they work.   A strategy of small wins builds a pattern that attracts allies and deters opponents.  All we need as investors to start small wins as earners is an idea, enthusiasm, comfort and time.  The purposeful investing strategy provides us with this.

Gary

(1) Small Wins by Karl Weick

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

Grab a Good Value Edge


Good value thinking adds an edge in our portfolios now.

On June 23, 2016, as Britain voted to exit the European Union, British stocks and the pound fell.  I sent a message that said:

Brexit is most likely to have a short term effect on the UK stock market.  If you see the British pound and the UK index plunge, speculate by overweighting the UK market.

An easy way to invest in the British market is with the country ETF iShares MSCI United Kingdom (symbol EWU traded on the NYSE).  EWU tracks the investment results of the MSCI United Kingdom Index.  It has at least 90% of its assets in the securities of underlying index which are equities traded primarily on the London Stock Exchange.

etf

Chart from www.finance.yahoo.com

Since then, the share price has gone from $27.60 to $32.46 and has since settled to $31.24.

This recommendation was made first and foremost because Britain was (and remains) a good value market but there was even more profit because the British pound collapsed at the same time as the British market.  Such downfalls usually result in a rebound of the currency.

Now, there is even more potential because, the British pound has collapsed even more.

The pound had fallen from $1.55 per pound into the low $1.30 per pound range.   In the last three month,  it has dropped back into the low $1.20 per pound range.

pound

The pound’s collapse was created more by an upward dollar explosion rather than pound weakness.  This is explained in the Wall Street Journal article, “Dollar Soars on Upbeat Manufacturing Data – U.S. currency reached its highest level since June 2002 during trading” (1).

This peaking of the US dollar creates a hidden value in British shares.  The Wall Street Journal article “U.K. Manufacturing PMI Rises to Two-and-a-Half Year High. (2)

Think about this.  The falling British pound makes UK stocks cheaper (in US dollar terms) at the same time that the falling British pound gives British companies a huge advantage.

The article says: U. K. manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 2½ years in December, a survey showed Tuesday, as both domestic and overseas demand grew robustly, the latter boosted by sterling’s sharp weakening in the wake of the Brexit vote in June.

Since June 23, when 52% of Britons voted to leave the European Union, the pound has weakened by around 15% against the dollar and by around 10% against the currencies of the U.K.’s major trading partners.

This gives the UK Stock Market (and the iShares MSCI UK ETF (symbol EWU) a triple value edge.

Good Value Edge #1: The UK market is a better value than the US market.

A look at Keppler Asset Management Winter 2016 value analysis fundamentals of the good and poor value markets shows that the UK was selling at 1.91 times book versus the US at 2.24 times book.  The average dividend yield was 3.37% versus 1.85 for the US market.

I expect to receive and send our Pi subscribers the January 2017 Keppler analysis next week. Though I have not seen the figures yet, I’ll bet the UK market is even a better value than the US market now.

keppler

Good Value Edge #2:  The second edge is that UK businesses now have this huge competitive advantage for 2017 over US businesses.

Good Value Edge #3:   The third edge is the potential of a British pound recovery versus the US dollar.  I have been tracking the pound to the dollar since I moved to London in the 1970s. You can see the big decline in the 1980s that helped our Silver Dip customers earn almost $50,000 in a year on a $10,000 collateral loan.

The British pound is nearing that position again.  I would be surprised to see it return to the $2 per pound range, but $1.40 or $1.50 is expected and would bring a fast 25% or so, extra profit.

Screen Shot 2017-01-13 at 9.32.58 AM

Historical British pound dollar chart at fxtop.com

Most Important!  These three good value edges all begin with the fact that the British Market is already good value.  Each edge is an added play on a base of good value.

No one knows when the fundamental forces of value will recalibrate the markets, but if investors control their time horizon, their risk are very, very low while their potential is very very high.

The updated report, Silver Dip 2017, explains how to calculate potential forex  and good value profits (and losses).   However, the most important reason I like this investment is that my belief in value brings me a great sense of comfort.

Economic news is not trustworthy because there are so many hidden agendas, cheating and uses of false news in markets today.  Mathematically based financial news about stock market value at the price-to-book, price-to-earnings and dividend yield cannot be fudged because 2 + 2 always equals 4 and  the results are comparable.

Tracking the mathematics creates comfort.  Comfort is the most important factor in investing.   Investing success is not based on the information we receive but on what we do with the data.  Our actions are usually based on how we feel.

We should always ask ourselves “How do we feel about taking risk?”

For many years, I made speculative investments in equities and made some good profits from them.  However, never once did I feel comfortable.  Some investors worry so much about their investments that the stress and strain to their nervous system is not worth any profit they might make.  When it to comes to equities, that’s is my particular quirk.

Speculating in real estate or currencies does not bother me much at all.  Over the decades as I realized this, I dramatically reduced my speculative equity deals.

Stress can kill!  We should never leverage a speculation if we are going to continually worry about it.

Be comfortable.  The research is clear.  Growing happiness comes from achieving goals, not from getting or being rich.  When the process of making money is divorced from a long term strategy of completing fulfilling missions, the process of investing is more likely to engender fear and unhappiness, than a feeling of fulfillment and security.

This is why we all need to seek a good value edge.

Gary

(1)  wsj.com: Dollar Soars on Upbeat Manufacturing Data

(2) wsj.com:U.K. Manufacturing PMI Rises to Two-and-a-Half Year High

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

How to Reduce Stress and Increase Profits Part II


Growing numbers of pensions have problems but there is a way to have the perfect form of financial security in 2017.   I call it the Perfect Pension.  To help understand how to build an unshakable economic platform here is Part Two of the report,  “The Pruppie Factor:  Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits in 2017”.

If you missed Part One on how to integrate income and profits from savings, read Part One here, as this report will only be available free for three days.

“The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits in 2017 – Part Two”

PIEC investing combines three types of investments.  The first is your own business or businesses that you are comfortable with and know more about than any other.

The second are safe, liquid investments, blue chip types or the ultimate in stogy and safe, country index ETFs.

The third type of investments are speculative deals or safe investments that use timeless leverage.

Two Ratios

There are two important ratios we need to set.  The first is the ratio between the safe and speculative investments we hold.  This will vary with every investor.  Our needs in relation to our assets, the time we have to let our investments grow and most important, the level of comfort should be determining factors.

My ratio fluctuates between 80% safe and 20% speculative and 70% safe and 30% speculative.

The Perfect Ratio for Leverage

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett has used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the ratio of 1.6 (or a 60% loan) to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  In other words, if he chose million to invest, he would borrow an extra $600,000 and invest $1,600,000.

The Perfect Percentage for Each Individual

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.  He uses this in his borrowing:  not too little, not too much, for him.

All investors need to know how much they can borrow.  Financially and emotionally they need to stick for long periods and survive rough patches if that come along.

There are factors to consider when planning whether to use leverage or not and if so at which investment to loan ratio.

Factor #1:  How long can we invest?  We should avoid leveraging short term “get in and out investments”, unless we can afford to take an increased short term loss and have the discipline to cut that loss if and when it happens.

Otherwise we should plan to invest for at least a year (5 years is better) to let the leverage work.

Factor #2: How is our staying power?  If we don’t want or can’t liquidate a loss, can we afford to put up a additional capital as additional collateral?

Factor #3: How much can we afford to lose?  Leverage increases risk.  We can quickly lose part or all of our investments.  We should never speculate with savings that we cannot afford to lose.  We should not use our emergency funds.  We should not use the money set aside for our kids’ college education.  We should not mortgage our house in the hopes that we are going to make some great profit.  We cannot risk our pensions.  (Pension law normally does not allow leverage.)

The more important the need and the sooner the need for that money will be, the lower the loan to investment ratio should be.

The most important factor is comfort.

How do we feel about taking risk?

For many years, I made speculative investments in equities and made some good profits from them.  However, never once did I feel comfortable.

Some investors worry so much about their investments that the stress and strain to their nervous system is not worth any profit they might make. When to comes to equities, that’s me.

Speculating in real estate or currencies does not bother me much at all. Over the decades as I realized this, I dramatically reduced my speculative equity deals.  I hold just one such investment now and later in this report we’ll review why that one investment does not bother me.

Stress can kill!  We should never leverage a speculation if we are going to continually worry about it.

Be comfortable.  A PIEC plan gives us a way to gain everlasting wealth and a feeling of security by being aware of and in tune with a fulfilling, strategic investment plan that goes beyond short term dollars and cents.

Too few investors ask the question, “Why do I want to be wealthy?”

We know that food has to be bought.  Rent has to be paid.  Taxes, bills, cars, gas, education, health care, entertainment all require money.

Yet these expenses do not require that we be really wealthy.  In fact, as we saw earlier in this report, research shows that money’s ability to make us feel good is quite limited once we cross a threshold in the $75,000 a year range.

The link between having money and being happy is not strong because happiness comes in two ways “evaluative” and “affective”.

Evaluative happiness (a sense that we are progressing toward our life goals) keeps getting better as we earn more.

Affective happiness (how often we experience positive emotions like joy, affection and tranquillity, as opposed to negative emotions) does not rise much after a household reaches an annual income of around $75,000.

The research is clear.  Growing happiness comes from achieving goals, not getting or being rich.  When the process of making money is divorced from a long term strategy of completing fulfilling missions, the process of investing is more likely to engender fear and unhappiness, than a feeling of fulfillment and security.

When we invest without a personal, meaningful strategy; our investing logic can be turned upside down in numerous ways.  We risk having a behavior gap.

For example, the Golden Rule of Investing #7 is to never measure an investment by its high or low price.

Price does not represent value!  One of my clients (his name was Dick) taught me this lesson about 40 years ago.  Merri and I were conducting London real estate tours.  London property prices had crashed when most property prices globally were rising.  Property investments there offered excellent value at that time.  Dick heard my story and invested in a property related deal I had written about.  Over the next 12 months, Dick’s investment doubled.

He asked me what to do.  My reply was “If it were me, I would sell half the investment.”  He did.  The sale recouped his original investment.  He had the same amount still invested so his profits could grow, or not.  Over the next 6 months the price of Dick’s remaining shares rose 50% more.  He called me in a rage, disgusted that he had sold half.  He felt he had lost extra profit on the portion of the investment he had sold.  Dick had gained three times his original investment in 18 months.  Instead of being delighted with what he had gained, he was angry, frustrated and bitter over what he viewed as a loss.

He reinvested and never spoke to me again except one time.  He called again.  The share price had corrected dropping 70% in a short time.  Because his reinvestment had been exactly at the highest (distorted) price, he was now in a loss position.  His comment was “Why in the — had I ever suggested he invest?”

Dick should have been looking at a return of 75% in 24 months.  Instead he had a 5% loss.  The moral of the story is that Dick lost because he had no strategy except accepting the current share price of his investment as the final arbitrator of value.

If Dick had a longer term strategy and held onto his London real estate position he would have made a fortune.  Few locations have seen as much property appreciation in the last four decades.

The biggest lesson I gained from Dick was the fact that he was not content, even when he had huge profits.  With “profit as the only motive” investors are in doubt all the time.  If the price skyrockets up, the frustration is not having invested more.  If the price goes down, the frustration is having invested at all.  Every price move creates doubt, insecurity and questions.  “Should I invest more? Should I sell?  Should I hold?”

The reality is that share price rarely reflects true value.  In fact, the faster and higher an investment’s price rises beyond the rise of its income producing power, the lower its value.  Fast rising prices often mean rapidly dropping value and vice versa.  The higher and faster a share price rises, the less it takes for the price to turn around.  The bigger the correction is likely to be.

There is a correct value for every investment.  The problem is no one really knows what that value truly is.  People argue about correct pricing.  This argument is called a market…  investors putting their money where their mouths (or beliefs) are.

No one ever really knows a correct price.  There is always something we do not know because the true value of every investment is changing every single day.  Value even changes each hour or minute.  Factors, forces, events and conditions, far beyond a brain’s capacity to logically process, create changes in true value that no one can always know.

However as humans we all want to know the unknowable.  This flaw in thinking creates a tendency to focus on price and confuse price with value.

What we should know are the wants, needs and desires, created by our unique purpose that we have chosen as our destiny.

We should then know how our investments help complete this purpose, in terms of profit and fulfillment.  We should know how much we paid for investments, how much they are worth and the relationship between our investments and their income producing power.

Trying to know much more than this is counter productive.  There is always something we do not know.   When we invest, we will sometimes be wrong.  George Soros shared an important lesson on what to do about this human frailty when he stated that he was wrong as much as anyone else, but just for shorter periods of time.

He is also quoted as saying:  “The financial markets generally are unpredictable.  The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”

Soros realizes that it is human to not know everything.  There is no guilt in being wrong.  The only shame comes if we fail to correct our mistakes.

Dick’s mistake in London was that he tied his happiness to the price of his investment.  When the price of his investment rose, he was upset because he wished he had more.  When the price of his investments fell, he was upset because he had anything in that investment at all.

Focusing on investments at their current prices or its high or low price is short term thinking that can create a losing behavior gap.

Another reason many investors lose is because they want their investing to be exciting.

We can again learn from George Soros who said: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money.  Good investing is boring.”

A few years after my experience with Dick, an investment adviser named Harris contacted me about an arbitrage deal with Japanese yen.

As far as I could tell, Harris was a well educated, conservative businessman who had earned a solid living and built a respectable estate so he could afford a comfortable lifestyle.  He needed to work, but not much.

Somehow a con artist slipped his grips into Harris who otherwise seemed an intelligent, well balanced person.  The scammer convinced Harris that someone in Japan wanted to do some weird form of currency arbitrage with him.  Harris was convinced he would make millions.  All he needed to do was put up some seed money.  What Harris explained to me made no sense at all.  The idea Harris was spouting was so convoluted that I couldn’t even apply logic to it.  Yet he found the deal fun and exciting!  He was able to participate in secret meetings, strange overnight faxes and lots of long distance phone calls to put this deal, always just around the corner, together.

Many times over the past decades I have found that even reasonable intelligent people, when captured by the allure of what they think is big business, refuse to accept that they are engaged in a big ripoff.  They simply will not listen, even when presented with the facts.

Harris refused my warnings that he was being fooled and robbed.  He ignored his business, invested all his savings (and perhaps those of some clients) in seeding the deal.  He eventually went bust.  There was some flap with the law and Harris chose to exit the scene via death by heart attack.  The more realistic term I believe was he passed away from a broken heart when he finally realized how he had given up his savings, his business and his integrity, all for a bit of excitement.

We can have fun and satisfaction with a worthwhile, personal purpose and accomplish missions that achieve a steady foundation of growth.  The process when combined with mathematical investing logic creates everlasting wealth.  Chasing the excitement of quick bucks always stacks the odds against us.  The idea of winning the lottery is exciting, but the odds against us are millions to one.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the behavior gap is the power of fear.

The great value investor, Warren Buffet, tells us why fighting fear is easier said than done. “There is no comparison between fear and greed.  Fear is instant, pervasive and intense.  Greed is slower.  Fear hits.”

This creates a problem because we are conditioned to have fear every day.  So much frightening information is thrown at us that fear becomes a habit.  Fear is the norm.  Almost every establishment that structures our society tries to make us feel fear.  The government says, “Break the law (there are so many laws now) and we’ll put you in jail”.   The medical and insurance professions rely on fear to sell their wares.

We are bombarded with bad news, risks and warnings so fear becomes a habit.  This fear is a hard habit to break as well because we remain immersed in a daily flood of alarming data.

Many readers write in and tell me how they plan to speculate in currency (or other commodity) futures, based on programs they have tested on paper.  I ask them what they’ll do about the fear.

Studying markets in advance is great but do we think that this type of test is anything like actually investing?

When I hear of testing a share (or commodity or currency) trading program on paper, I give this advice.

“Buy a 12 foot long wooden two by four.  Lay it on the floor.  Walk on it.  All 12 feet.  Unless you have an inner ear problem, or other mobility issue, walking the board is easy.

“Now span a 100 foot deep chasm with the board.  Now walk across the board over that 100 foot drop.  It’s the same board.  Right?  Can our emotions ignore the risk of death from the drop?  Probably not.  Mine certainly can’t!”

Actually we should not do this!  Hopefully the point is clear without risking death from a headlong plunge.  The 12 foot walk is easy on the ground.  Over the chasm it’s impossible for most of us… because of our emotion.

Investing on paper without risk lacks emotions.  When real money is made or lost, emotion kicks in and so does the behavior gap.  20% of good investing with real money is knowledge.  80% is emotional control.

My experience suggests that 20% of investors look for change, calculate what the new horizons might bring and invest based on inner beliefs and purpose they stick to.  They do not get caught in the emotions of greed when markets rise. Nor do they panic when markets fall.  Perhaps it is not a coincidence that 80% of the world’s wealth is controlled by those 20% of the population.

80% of investors invest emotionally and lose.

Wise investors know that there is always something they do not know.  Wise investors embrace change as they embrace the reality of their emotions and circumstances.  Wise investors adjust their individual investing style accordingly.

Adjusting our investing styles to our individual personality is important because each of us thinks and feels differently.

An article “It’s not your fault you don’t learn from mistakes… your brain is just wired badly” tells of research that shows that the ability to learn from mistakes varies so wildly between people.

A study at Goldsmiths, University of London created insights about why some people are better at learning from their mistakes than others.

The researchers analyzed electrical brain responses and identified the difference in brain activity to see why some people learn from their errors and experiences faster than others.

The study, published in the Journal of Neuroscience, investigated brainwave patterns to see why some were able to more easily use feedback to check past performance and to adjust their next performance accordingly than others.

Fear is a much stronger motivational force than greed.  Two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, have conducted many studies on the psychology of investing.  In one study they gave potential investors an option between a sure bet of $3,000, or an 80 percent chance of winning $4,000 (meaning there was a 20 percent chance of winning nothing).  Most said they would take the $3,000.

The same question, was then asked in a different way.  Would you rather lose $3,000 or accept an 80 percent chance of losing $4,000 (with a 20 percent chance of losing nothing).  Most took the riskier bet.  The subjects were willing to take a bigger risk to avoid losing money than they were when they stood to make more money.

Know Thyself

Investors are better when they believe in a purpose and understand (at least a little) their attitudes and fears.  There are as many ways to invest as there are investors.  Each of us live by a multitude of emotions created by association over our lifetime.  These emotions are totally subjective and completely unique to each individual.  Take a ping pong paddle as an example.  If one person played happy games of ping pong every day with their friends, every time they see a ping pong paddle their neural system is flooded with neural transmitters that enhance energy and flood the person with a sense of positivity and well being.  Another person who was often beaten with a ping pong paddle sees the same paddle and associates it with pain, terror and fear.

Kirk Kerkorian, a billionaire investor recently passed at age 98.  He left a tip about investing and knowing oneself when he explained, why, when he was a billionaire, he continued to take risks.  “When you’re a self-made man, you start very early in life,” he told The Las Vegas Review-Journal in 1999.  ‘In my case it was at 9 years old when I started bringing income into the family. You get a drive that’s a little different, maybe a little stronger, than somebody who inherited.’”

He started very poor and became rich but nearly lost everything several times.  His attitude was, “Sometimes you lose, but that’s the nature of the game.  There’s always another game and another chance to win.”

Mr. Kerkorian knew his attitudes and had rituals that helped him develop missions that would accomplish what he considered his purpose in life.

Creating New Rituals with Association

Each of us has a personal task to find and face our weaknesses and fears, to discover and reinforce our strengths and desires.  Breaking down old habits of thought and emotion, some that have been with us a lifetime, is hard.

For example I have a tendency to worry.  I know it and the way I face this is with my dad’s old fashioned shaving brush… an “Ever Ready Guaranteed” that he kept with an Old Spice shaving mug.

I have found that I can replace my worry with gratitude, that I was born at this special time, to such special parents and have so many great investing opportunities literally laid in my path.  Every time I have followed my passions in life, some great way to earn excellent income and profits has been there.

What are the odds that I would land in Hong Kong just before it emerged as the world’s hottest stock market for decades?  What are the chances that I would then move to London and then Naples where two of the hottest real estate markets in the world would explode?  What are the chances I would visit Ecuador just before it became one of the hottest expat countries anywhere?

The odds of each were a billion to one and yet each time I moved somewhere I loved, the equivalent of a winning lottery ticket was waiting for me.  So why should I ever worry?

I use my dad’s shaving brush to remind me of this incredible good fortune.  My father passed at an early age and I wish we had had more time together.  I am enormously grateful for what he taught me and how he loved me.  So every day I start by using a gift he left me… that shaving brush.

Picking up that brush brings back a touch of the wisdom and good feelings he shared with me and reminds me how lucky I am, even if my investments happened to have risen or fallen.

There is nothing spectacular about these ideas he gave but the powerful memory of being loved and remembering his touches of wisdom provide positive associations that start my day.

One way to being smarter… happier… healthier is to start every day with something that creates a happy association.  Warm and fuzzy is good!  Such associations are comforting and we are more likely to make wise decisions the day based on what is right for us… instead of based on fear and dread.  That’s darned important in these times of social and economic turmoil and change that create so many feelings of threat.

This is fundamental to well being because happy associations create positive attitudes and positivity cuts through the multitude of noise that an imbalanced society creates.

There is even scientific evidence that the power of this type of ritual can even improve our DNA.

Dr. John Douillard wrote about this at his www.lifespa.com site.

Here is an excerpt:  “In a new study set to be published in the Journal of Psychological Sciences, Harvard Business School researchers set out to measure the effects of ritual.  A ritual could be singing happy birthday, or how you brew your coffee, or saying grace before a meal.

“The study demonstrated that when a ritual was performed before eating, the food tasted better and delivered more satisfaction than when there was no pre-eating ritual.

“In the study, participants cut a chocolate bar in half.   First, they opened only one half and enjoyed that half.  Then, they were allowed to open the other half and eat it – a very simple ritual.

“Another segment of the study created a ritual around eating a carrot.  Participants were asked to hit the table 5 times and close their eyes for 5 seconds before eating the carrot.

“In both groups, the carrot and chocolate were enjoyed more as compared to control groups who did not take part in a ritual.  Additionally, participants in the ritual groups took more time to eat and were actually willing to pay more for the carrot and chocolate after the experience of the ritual.”

The latest research in the field of epigenetics has shown that behaviors and belief systems can actually change our DNA.

This is one way to easily and gently create improvements in your life.   No matter what your background… your genetic makeup… your circumstances… your good fortune or bad, you can make circumstances better by creating positive routines.

The study Dr. Douillard mentioned did have a caveat: the rituals have to be repeated steps, not random gestures, and you cannot watch someone else say grace or open a bottle of wine and expect to enjoy the meal or wine better.  You have to do it yourself.

You can make your life better… no matter what circumstances exist.  Just create simple, positive rituals that you use at the beginning of and throughout every day.

This is why slow, worry free, good value investing is at the core of PIEC’s Everlasting Wealth.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   When we combine the  income, from our own fulfilling business, with slow, worry free, good value investing we bridge the gap.

There is always something we don’t know.  The years ahead will create challenges and be interesting.  When we become Pruppies, we look forward to the new with enthusiasm instead of dread.   Merri and I look forward to sharing ideas and information in 2017 that help bring everlasting wealth for you.

Gary

I hope this report helps make your 2017 better, and we want to make a special offer that can help you integrate your business and investing.  The offer is limited to three days and ends tomorrow tonight.

We offer two courses for attaining financial security.

The first is our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.  The program contains  a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”  Report MP3,
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

You can learn all about this program at How to Have Real Freedom, but do not order the program there for $299 .  If you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course in the next three days, I’ll send you the program free.

I invite you to join me and a small selective group who for the next year will participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value to increase the value of and protect our savings, pensions, income and wealth in good times as well as devastating economic conditions.

Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example, in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you subscribe to Pi you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $27 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2016 and am about to update it for 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

Save $457.95  if  You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $27  report “Silver Dip 2015” and the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.

Triple Guarantee

Enrol in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through your own purposeful business and slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” and “Silver Dip 2015” plus the Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

I am so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email me within 60 days for a full refund  and keep the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” as my thanks for giving Pi a try.  

 

How to Reduce Stress and Increase Profits


There are a growing number of economic problems that can create financial disaster in the year ahead.  Fortunately technologies that create many of the problems can also be used to build an unshakable economic platform, for a more independent, carefree and fulfilled life that puts you in control.

I have created report, The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Reduce Stress and Increase Profits in the Year Ahead”.  This report  shares how to develop a strategy that turns change into success.  The report is pretty long so I would like to send it to you in two parts and to thank you for being a reader I am sending this free and without obligation.

The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Reduce Stress and Increase Profits in the Year Ahead

“May you live in interesting times”. That’s a Chinese curse that seems to have been cast on our modern world.  We can enjoy comfort and profits in the year ahead despite this fact.

Become a Pruppie.  Integrate your earning with your investing and enjoy peak living, everlasting wealth and natural health with PIEC Investing in the year ahead.

Before we look at what PIEC means, let’s delve into Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies expect everything to expand.  They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can.  Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.  They also engage in activity that they love that would sustain them in case society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society should fail.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.  Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Hope springs eternal and it should.  One of the key themes in my first book, Passport to International Profit, (published in the 1970s) was “The Sun Always Shines Somewhere”.  This thought has been in and remains a foundation of everything I do.

Sometimes this sunshine is hard to see because the press always focuses on doom and gloom.  Current news often makes the world seem about to end.  We cannot blame the press. Bad news sells.  The majority seem to want to worry instead of learn about all that’s good.  This does not make doom and gloom right.  This is why the majority are also the rich portion of the population, but bad news is an economic fact for the press.

Yet despite all the negative headlines, we have lived through the Cold War and MAD, Y2K, GridX II, the Peak Oil Crisis, the recession of the 1970s, 1980s 2007, etc. etc. etc.  Chicken Little is always out there, selling the falling sky.  Don’t buy into this story!

History suggests that there will always be opportunity.  The sun always shines somewhere.

Brexit, global warming and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States are 2016 examples of how the press gravitates to negative news.  These three events may be bad news or not.  The future will tell, but they are examples of how the media focuses on tiny parts of our infinite existence.  They can make anything and just about everything seem negative.  This can blind us to the positive realities ahead, if we let it.  Don’t.  Expect that the world will remain standing and look for opportunity instead!

Our wealth and economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  We are part of a growing global population.  New technology makes more people, as a whole, more productive every day.  The world has increasingly larger markets creating more supply in increasingly efficient ways.

This reality increases everyone’s wealth.  Yes there is a lot of bad news in many places.  There is inequality.  There is crime.  There is war and hate and injustice.   Despite these negatives there is even more that is positive.  Opportunity grows.

Pruppies tap into and use every bit of the good news they can.  They have a plan B if everything goes wrong, but Plan B is based on something a Pruppie wants to do we love, not just a shelter from bad news.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate earning and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Imagine this example of Pruppism.  The Tiffany lamp casts an amber glow, rich, ivory and warm in the grey gloom of early dusk.  The gold knobbed mahogany desk, its deep patina waxed and smooth, shines with reflections of ancient leather Chesterfields stuffed full, but rumpled with age and of maritime shots that hang in brass frames on the wall. The room speaks of settled tradition, the kind that might never end.  But thoughts instead are on the demise of the business that has supported this room.

The late Jim Slater of Slater Walker, a British industrial conglomerate turned bank in the 1970s was in that room.  I recall his bank’s collapse well as I was living in Hong Kong and Slater Walker was a huge going concern in what was a British colony in those days.  The Slater Walker crash was big news that unsettled the entire British banking system at the time.

Slater, the founder, had been a really high roller, using every modern banking tactic available including buying many assets with cheap loans.  Then in the mid 1970s banking crisis interest rates skyrocketed and his bank was unable to refinance its debt.  The company failed and Slater had to resign.  Numerous charges were brought against him and he spent considerable time defending what he had done.

In the end he was only fined a nominal sum but despite this, his banking career was well and truly dead.

However he had already moved on.

He wrote about this in his autobiography, “Return To Go”.  He had always had a hobby making puppet shows and telling stories to his children, so instead of banking, he turned his passion into profit and wrote some children’s books.  His first effort sold a respectable 35,000 copies.  His next a monster series for younger children, became a huge hit.

He had also maintained a hobby of salmon fishing so again turned his passion into profit by creating a business that bought up fishing rights and resold them as time-shares.  He had quite a success.

Some day a catastrophe beyond our control could redirect the course of our lives.  We might lose a job, learn that our pension won’t pay or that our dollars won’t buy as much as they must.

Though Jim Slater was a banker, outside economic forces beyond his control caused his business disaster.  Yet he had options because he had been doing things he loved that were not related to his banking, but could become useful income generators in difficult time.

I do not know if Slater understood Pruppism but that’s what he was practicing.

Pruppism is a positive realism based on the knowledge that much of our lives are directed by events that we do not know or expect and could not change them even if we did.  There is always something we do not know and that’s okay.

Years ago I was speaking at an investing seminar in Marbella Spain.  One of the speakers was a brilliant strategist, Johan Peter Paludan, of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.  This institute has a large interdisciplinary staff with expertise in economics, political science, ethnography, psychology, engineering, PR and sociology.  They identify and analyze global trends that influence the future.  Paludan was speaking of these trends and answering questions that delegates had about the world’s economic future.

One delegate asked what to do if there was a global nuclear exchange.  Paludan replied that the results of some events are so unpredictable that it is not worth trying to plan for them.

This thought has stuck with me for decades because it helped me realize that no matter how cautious, how defensive and careful we are, there are events that we cannot even imagine that can turn our lives upside down, for the good or bad.  With this in mind my wife Merri and I have created a lifestyle where we turn our passions into profit but in a way that whatever happens we are likely to be in a position to spot the positive and the opportunity.

A PIEC Experience

Pruppies gain the benefits of PIEC wealth.  PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  PIEC income and wealth come from doing what you do for love, rather than just the money.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income.  They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn.  They hope, that maybe the savings will bring, sometime in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

Pruppies reverse the priorities.  Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now.  Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way.  They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

If economic circumstances tie them to an existing income effort, they create hobbies that are income producers of the future.

For example, if a Pruppie loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he or she will create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet.  But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed.  He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice.  So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses.  Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

Pruppies combine money with time, energy and desires.  They generate income doing something desired.  Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

#1: Do What You Love!

The reason PIECs work well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Effort, determination and tenacity are wealth building attributes that cannot fail.  Yet Pruppism does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100.  Smart Pruppies start small and gradually expand into their passion.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life.  Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors.  So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where I developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air.  Now I live in nature so after I finish the writing or talking, I can walk in the woods or take my axe and chop firewood or something physical.  I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense.

We built a series of cabins in the wild that bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift. Now we have been at this for nearly two decades and we are far from finished.  But while doing what we love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retired folks who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream.  This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems.  We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.  What do we sincerely want?

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth.  Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm.  How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams?  The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must take the third step and become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit.  We always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas.

Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to keep adding new opportunities into our lives.  Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

#2: Do what you love, but also be of service.  Do something for others that is meaningful and important to you.

We all have a purpose in life and when we are filling it, we feel fulfilled.  Wealth and fulfillment is the goal.  Fulfillment is important because of the law of diminishing returns.  A 2008 study that analyzed Gallup surveys of 450,000 Americans suggested that day-to-day contentment improves until income hits around $75,000 per annum.  After that, more money just brings more stuff, with far less gain in happiness.  Income beyond $75,000 does not do much for a person’s daily mood.

This is a pretty general study and regional differences in costs, inflation and life circumstances will create many fluctuations from this norm, but the point is when money is the main goal, the better you get, the harder it will be to gain satisfaction.

Giving, on the other hand, never has limitations, especially when the giving helps complete a purpose that is part of our destiny.

This is true in business and investing.  A study of investors for example found that investors with socially responsible ideals gained the best returns.  A dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments and the added stick-to-it-ness helps increase profits.

The financial giant State Street Corporation’s Center for Applied Research did an 18 month study of 7,000 investors to get a better understanding of the role incentives play in making investment decisions.  Based on this study a new measure of investment performance called “Phi” was created.  Portfolios were previous rated by their Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Phi is the newest measure of performance.

Alpha measures an investment’s performance against a market index.  If the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 10 percent and a mutual fund is up 15 percent, for example, that 5 percentage point difference is alpha.

Beta is the return of any given market.  And charting beta is what a passive index fund does.  Comparing different indexes’ beta — say domestic equities and international bonds — helps investors in deciding how to allocate their investments.

Gamma is a measure of the impact on returns of more intelligent financial planning decisions.  A Gamma rating quantifies the additional value that can be achieved by optimal asset allocation, a dynamic withdrawal strategy, incorporating guaranteed income products (i.e., annuities), tax-efficient decisions, and liability-relative asset allocation optimization.

What phi aims to add is a way for investors to quantify how their motivations — or those of the people managing their money — will affect long-term investment returns.

The study examined what motivates a person to invest — or not and found that main investment motivations are market-based motives, the most frequent and powerful being fear in the market.  Both market motivations, the prospect of profit and the fear of loss, can have a negative effect on long-term performance.

A deep sense of purpose is what causes a high phi score.  A high phi factor is not about outperforming markets or peers, and it’s not an asset-gathering measure of performance.  Pi performance is defined as sustainable investing with a deeper sense of purpose.

People who invested with socially responsible ideals did best in the study.  The dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments.

The study helped define three aspects of investing that are generally ignored, purpose, habits and incentives.

Purpose.  Purpose requires some soul-searching questions about what we each want our life to be.  This purpose is more important than the investment goal.  The purpose of the money we have becomes more important than the amount in the portfolio.

Habits.  Habits come next because we need to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The marketplace does all it can to distract us from our goals.  There is an endless stream of news, rumor, conjecture, facts figures, ideas and tactics generated by every part of every stock market aimed at getting us to act in ways that benefit the agenda of others.

Habits help us avoid being distracted from what we are meant and want to do.  The muffle the noise of Madison Avenue, the spin from Washington DC and the hidden agendas of big business.

Incentive.  Changing incentives to accomplish a purpose instead of a numerical (percentage or profit) goal helps us adopt better behavior.  We react to accomplishing our meaningful purpose instead of drama created by media as well as manipulation and short term whims in markets.

The study showed that changing incentives in this way improved phi when they had a meaningful impact on a person’s investment strategy.

The study found these facts: Every one-point increase in people’s orientation toward investment goals with a purpose — and the scale is 0 to 3 — equated to 42 percent greater odds that the investors know what they are paying in fees, 37 percent greater odds that investors are not rejecting their financial adviser, 38 percent greater odds that the people consider investing in socially responsible investments and 79 percent greater odds that investors will trade less frequently, the research found.

As in so many others cases, two of the most important factors of success are keeping costs and trading activity low.  These are among the most powerful ways to increase wealth.  Having greater fulfillment as well as more wealth is a bonus that Pruppies call “Everlasting Wealth”.

Figure out what is really important in life for you and then find ways to invest in that purpose.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

Learn to focus your investments using purpose as the most important investment goal.  The purpose of money becomes more important than the amount.

Learn how to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The market will do all it can to distract us from our goals.  Understand that many banks, brokers, the media, the government and commerce all have agendas to take our money, not make more for us.   Good wealth habits and routines protect us from this.

#3: Integrate your earning and investing. 

Long term success in business and investing are determined by control and comfort.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are serving a valuable purpose, the best we can, regardless of how events unfold.

Real comfort helps maintain determination, dedication and enthusiasm, all among the most vital parts in the process of succeeding in investing and business.

Our own business increases comfort because a business is simply an investment that gives us more control due to the addition of our own time and energy. 

A Personal Income Earning Corridor (PIEC) begin with a main income generator that we control.  For some this is a job with a salary.  For others it is a pension. For many it is their own business.

Integration of business and investing is important because investments are not always good income generators.

Years ago I managed an investment portfolio for Canada’s largest private investment management firm.  One day, during lunch with the president of the firm, we discussed the difficulties of professional fund management.  He explained that one of his biggest problems was the excessive expectation of customers.

“I have a retired client who has a million dollars”, he said.  “The client wants $90,000 a year to live on.  In a good year, we might earn 11%.  The client can take 9%. Our fee is 1% and the client’s fund increase by 1%.  In a bad year, we might earn 5%. The client takes 9%.  Our fee is 1% and the client’s funds drop by $50,000.  In the next year the client has even less to work with so a withdrawal of $90,000 may be more than 9% of the portfolio.  The client tends to take even more in good years, but never reduces the demand in bad years.”

The number one golden rule of investing is that there is always something we do not know.  Risk is always our partner.  When we invest, there is always potential that will negatively affect our financial welfare.  Our investments might rise or fall because of market conditions (market risk).  Corporate decisions, such as whether to expand into a new area of business or merge with another company, can affect the value of our investments (business risk).  If we own an international investment, events within that country can affect our investment.  There is both political and currency risk.  There is liquidity risk because we may need to draw on an investment at a time when it price is low.

Plus there are broken promises.

We live in an era of broken promises.  Defaults could ruin most average retirees and even investors.

A look at government, social and currency breakdown at its worst can help us see the problem.  Germany is an example when it borrowed heavily to pay WWI costs.  Such borrowing almost always leads to currency and social erosion and this did then.  Right after the war there was some stability, before government spending began to run wild.  By 1923, it reached the worst in history.  This caused prices to sometimes double in hours. In Germany by late 1923 it took 200 billion marks to buy a loaf of bread.

Hard-working people with modest spending habits could not even buy a postage stamp with their life savings.  All debt was wiped out but so too were all savings.

Salaries were paid three times a day yet shops were empty.  Food riots raged. Businesses closed down, unemployment soared.  The economy collapsed.

Anyone on a fixed income was destitute.  They sold everything just to buy food.

Small businesses however survived because they could hold material things such as clothing, food, anything people could consume. 

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

This is a bigger problem then it may seem because it creates an even bigger broken promise concerning the US dollar.

Medicare and Social Security already account for 41% of federal spending.  That was the expenditure last year.  This is not a static problem.  Each year that percentage is growing worse.  This creates a special risk for the dollar because Social Security’s reserves are not really assets at all.  The purported assets are simply IOUs from the US government.

Social Security assets are a liability of the government, so eventually the money comes from the same place as all other government expenditure, taxes or federal debt.  This means that if Social Security has to sell an asset, then the government, already overburdened by debt, will have to borrow the money from somewhere else.

If the Fed cannot raise enough money to pay Social Security only two options are left, devalue the greenback or don’t pay.

When Social Security was established in 1935, the President and Congress imposed taxes to pay the promised benefits. Thirty years later politics had changed.  When Medicare was established in 1965, the government took credit for the popular health coverage but left the payment problem for future generations.

President Nixon and Congress also enjoyed the popularity of they increased Social Security benefits  in the 1970s but left future generations the bill.

The public has not been fooled.  A survey in 1964 found that 77% of the population answered yes to the question “Do you trust the government to do the right thing “just about always” or “most of the time”.  Only 19% answered yes in 2015 according to Pew Research.

Yet what can individuals do other than what we have, voting in new administrations?

Voters attempted to create change in 2008 with a new administration.  The election process and result of 2016 suggests they were no pleased with the results. 2017 and beyond may be “interesting” years.

There should be little wonder that Americans have stopped trusting politicians who promise benefits to get and remain elected but leave the burdens of paying for the promises to pile up waiting to sink the next administration.

This problem has grown so large that in 2011 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit.”

In 2014 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress that more work must be done “to put fiscal policy on a sustainable course.”

If the government does not resolve this problem soon, then the world of lenders will.  If the US has to raise interest rates to continue attracting loans, a downward spiral will grow.  Higher rates create greater debt and greater debt demands higher interest payments. The costs will be catastrophic.  As investors flee US bonds and T-Bills for safer investment, the US dollar will lose purchasing power.

Social Security, if paid and even if paid in the same amounts as before, will buy less.  If Medicare stops working then all that’s left for backup is Obamacare and the private insurers in the plan.

This is another broken promise.  When United Health Group, the nation’s largest health insurer, recently announced that it was pulling out of Obamacare insurance the public learned that it will face higher premiums.  Many will need to choose a new plan, change doctors and hospitals as well.  United Health is not the first or only insurer to quit. A dozen nonprofit health insurance cooperatives shut down just last year.  The giants Aetna and Blue Cross Blue Shield are even considering a drop out.

If Social Security and health care promises are broken that just leaves our pensions. Right?

Yet if we look at the Pensionrights.org website we see hundreds of corporations that have reduced pension benefits including the likes of Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Allstate Corp., Coca Cola, Boeing, Caterpillar, Kraft Foods, Hewlett Packard, Fedex GM and GE to name a few of over a hundred.

This problem is not limited to corporate pension.  An Economic Budget Issue Brief issued to Congress from the CBO (Congressional Budget office”) says:

“By any measure, nearly all state and local pension plans are underfunded, which means that the value of the plans’ assets is less than their accrued pension liabilities for current workers and retirees” CBO.

The report shows that even five years ago the short fall of State and Local Pensions was over 3 trillion dollars, more than all other state and local debt

That leaves the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) as a safety net.  In the 2015 PBGC’s annual report the Director’s message says:  “One of the most important functions of PBGC is assuming responsibility for pension plans when their sponsors can no longer keep them going.  We insure the benefits of more than 40 million workers and retirees.  Currently, we pay more than 800,000 people each month.  An additional 585,000 workers are scheduled to receive benefits from PBGC when they retire.”

But if you look at the first paragraph of the Financial Report in that annual report you see:

“PBGC’s combined financial position decreased by $14,577 million, increasing the Corporation’s combined deficit (net position) to $76,349 million as of September 30, 2015 an all time record high from  $61,772 million as of September 30, 2014”.

Every step along the way we see shortfalls, debt with little hope of repayment and an economic overhang that will eventually create broken promises at every level from the pensions, healthcare, Social Security and most from a falling US dollar.

These facts will ruin the life styles of millions, but not all.

In short, there is risk in even the safest investments and there is a possibility that a negative financial outcome might occur.

This is why multi dimensional business opportunities make sense.  You can profit from expanding your utility.  The US currency may fall but your business can offer valuable, needed services or products that will be worth more than gold.

You can gain from having a source of income in a place where you have the best chances of control.  This is why for centuries… small business have had a home upstairs and business below, so the owner could control their business.

Those who profit most in changing times are those who add new dimensions to old time proven ways.  Modern technology offers many exciting ways to create multi dimensional profit and can earn income at home.

When you have your own business, you reduce the need to place excessive demands on your savings and you reduce the risks of broken promises especially when your have a multi dimensional business with multiple streams of income.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate multiple streams of income and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Merri and I aim to create multi dimensional opportunity wherever we live.

In Florida we bought a house and an orange grove next door.  Then we added a rental unit.

In North Carolina we bought a farm, then we added a seminar center, rental units and a trout raising business.

Products and services of essentials, food, clothing, shelter, protection and good health are the real golden assets in the worst times.

Imagine the scenario where our entire structure melts down.  “See the man who has just come in to get some milk for his family.  He stares at the rows for canned milk.  They were empty. Cleaned out.  He closes his eyes.  The world spins.  He snaps his eyes open and checked the rows again.  They are still empty.  He feels oddly betrayed.  Grocery stores are the supports of life.  When you need something you come here.  This is a fact of life in today’s world.  How can he not take this for granted.

“He rushes to the dairy case.  That’s empty too.  He runs to other shelves and sees shoppers piling up food, any food they can grab, throwing entire rows into their carts.  He is pushed and shoved in a mad rush to take any remaining food.

“The man speeds off to the nearest Dollar Store but finds the parking lot filled, lines waiting just to get in the door.”

Just one disruption in the supply line and in a day, the stores were empty. Our modern world is so intricately connected and stores operate on a just-in-time inventory control system.  When you buy anything a computer orders more and it comes next shipment, next day. One glitch in this complex system, one short break and the shelves rapidly go empty.  The barer the shelves, the faster everything goes.

Yesterday everything had been normal. Suddenly there was no milk anywhere.

The man’s tale is imaginary, but the fabric behind it is not, as the real story below shows.

In September and November of 2016, the Colonial pipeline that supplies millions of people with gasoline was shut down.

In November, one simple error caused the disruption.  A track hoe digging for utilities accidentally struck the pipeline, ignited gasoline and caused an explosion.

In September there was a leak (over a quarter million gallons of gas) that caused the disruption.  While shut down, so many people rushed to the gas station to fill up that it created a panic and shortage.

I spoke with the owner of the local gas station we use. He said people were lining up to fill their cars, gas cans and even large tanks in pickups.  He had to limit sales.

A shortage of just about any essential quickly creates panic.  In the pipeline disruptions motorists running to gas stations deviated from their normal consumption habits at the pump and quickly exhausted existing supplies.

There was still plenty of gasoline, but the ability to transport the product to North Carolina (and four other states) was restricted.  Loss of common sense, civility and safety flew out the window within hours.

This was despite the good news that there are two pipes that run side-by-side.  Only one was ruptured, so the disruption was not as bad as it could be.

The September leak, just one small problem in just one pipeline led to days of dry pumps and higher gas prices in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas while repairs were made.

Five states are so dependent on just two side by side  pipelines that their shutdown can create panic for millions of people in under one day.

Merri and I make each of our houses multi dimensional…a home and a source of income from some essential product.

Governments are going further into debt globally.  This creates serious debt and economic problems everywhere.  These burdens mean that governments and societies lose their ability to keep their promises.  Multi dimensional earnings can help overcome the risks these conditions create.

Our website has long shared the idea of multi dimensional business, investing and living.  We have looked at the idea of living as a landlord or the idea of multi dimensional writing and farming or Ecuador farming with B&B, plus Ecuador B&Bs on the beach or in the Amazon to name a few.

Multi dimensional opportunity earns in numerous ways.

Merri and I have always created multi dimensional opportunity in our global travels.  We have united self publishing, seminars, tours, real estate, teaching, currencies, investing and real estate to enhance our income and living.  For example in London we converted a house into an office and bedroom time share. We found special currency deals that helped.

I came across this (one of my first) multi dimensional opportunities when I wanted to finance a house purchase in London.  My business plan was to create a small office-apartment complex.  I would live in part of the house, have an office in part that I would share with a number of my readers.  The deal was aimed at helping overseas businesses people have an office and a place to stay when they were in London.  I set up a club something like a timeshare.  Not quite a timeshare but close enough.

My track record with the bank was good and I had always repaid loans.  Yet the policy at that bank was “timeshares are no-nos”.  I could almost see the glaze come over my bank manager’s eyes as I explained the project.  It was the look that said “No matter what you say, the answer will be NO”.  Once a manager thinks that what you want is against company policy, it is better to do something realistic like climb Mount Everest on a lunch break.  I come from a family of modest means and had no relatives or friends with the cash to start the deal so my alternative was to find overseas investors.

After making the necessary polite motions with my banker and letting him do likewise, I thanked him for his time and was preparing to leave.

Then he said, “By the way let me show you our new American Express Gold Card plan”.  The bank had just started to offer credit cards and they came with a 7,500 pound unsecured overdraft.  He told me that overseas investors could have these as well as local investors and customers.

Overdrafts are a peculiarly British line of credit that allows you to borrow up to the limit of the overdraft without any regular payment plan.  The banker sort of expects to see the amount borrowed rise and fall.  The borrower just pays interest on whatever amount is owed and on occasion the bank reviews the overdraft with you.

At that time one pound equaled about 2.2 dollars so this meant that everyone who obtained this credit card received a $16,500 dollar unsecured line of credit. $15,000 was the amount I was charging each member who joined my London office-apartment club!  I immediately saw how to use this to attract overseas investors.

I wanted 50 members at $15,000 each which was double the $375,000 I needed to buy and develop the property. I saw how to turn my customers into my overseas investors.

My head was spinning as I left the bank.  The bank would not give me a $375,000 loan secured by property.  Yet they would lend my buyers of the club the full price of membership on an unsecured basis.  All I needed was get half my buyers right now on a nothing down pre -purchase deal.  This is exactly what I did.  My customers became my overseas investors.

I hustled out, called my customers and offered them this deal they could not refuse.  “Join our club now and you get an American Express gold card.  The bank will lend you the money unsecured for your club membership.  Pay it back when you can.” 

That was a deal that few overseas investors could refuse.

This was a much better deal for me than borrowing the money from overseas investors to start.  The original 25 sales were financed by the bank.  My customers had to pay the money back, not me.

My clients loved me for this deal.  The British pound collapsed shortly after.  That 7,500 loan that created over $15,000 became much less expensive…. barely $10,000.  Those who borrowed made about $5,000 (33%) forex profit on the loan as well as the good real estate deal.

They made such a profit on the currency change I wrote a report about it and earned additional income from the report sales.

In that real example, I used my writing to enhance a real estate deal.  The real estate helped me promote my seminars and sell a report plus I ended up with a income and a wonderful central London house to live in.

There are many multi dimensional real estate opportunities, land that offers a low stress, healthy home, farm income and other profit potential all at the same time.  Merri and I sponsored many Ecuador real estate tours to help readers buy multi dimensional real estate like Ecuador beach farms that provide rentals and farm income.

When investing and business are balanced the building of wealth becomes a more fulfilling, enjoyable process of service.  Great financial rewards are an extra benefit rather than ultimate goals.  Worries about money become less dominant and we gain an inherent power because we want to work harder and longer.  We don’t need to search (and spend) so much for fulfillment and are more likely to excel financially.

Three Layer Financial Plan

Having our own business allows us to operate at peak performance and create a PIEC (Personal Income Earning Corridor).  Having a PIEC business does not mean you should put all your money in just your own business (though at times you may).  Diversification is always good.

PIEC portfolios come in three layers, first the personal business, then a layer of very safe investments over a third, much smaller layer of speculative deals.

The majority of PIEC diversification beyond our business should be in stodgy, liquid investments such as utilities, CDs, bonds and good value equities.

I prefer Country Index ETFs that provide diversification into entire equity markets.  These investments might pay little in the short term, but are safe and they are highly liquid at a known price.  The low return on these investments is acceptable because they support your PIEC business which maximizes profits and adds comfort like few other investments can.

These very safe investments act as reserves if your business hits a sticky patch and can provide ready finance if sudden business opportunities arise.  They also don’t take up much time in research, accounting, watching the market, etc. so you can devote your energy doing what you love (your business).

However, if you genuinely love researching and tracking the market and have the mentality, capital and experience for it, just being an investor can be a wonderful PIEC business in itself.

The third layer of diversification can be speculative because modern portfolio theory suggests that safe investments are enhanced and made safer by adding a small amount of higher risk deals.  This also allows us to fulfill any casino mentality we might have left if having our own business is not enough.

PIEC investing makes it easier to create and keep wealth.  It enhances our lifestyles now, because it lets us make money being who we really are.  It makes life more fulfilling and fun.

Integrating investing and business reduces the risks of placing excessive demands on your savings, especially if we have an anchor of value.

#4: Find your Anchor of Value.

Find your passion.  Knowing ourselves also helps begin a business with a most powerful business tool I call the Golden Rule of Simplicity.  This rule says there are millions of people just like us.  When we truly see ourselves we look into a mirror that reflects an entire market who feel and desire just as we do.  This is a simple rule yet gives us a finely tuned market research system which shows us how to get create our product, get in touch with our market, deliver the product or service and surrounds us with like minded souls.

Self-knowledge is also essential for comfort and comfort is a vital part of everlasting wealth.  When investors are not comfortable, no profit is enough.  Uncomfortable investors have a never-ending thirst for more that cannot be quenched.  This indefatigable desire gums up the money making process.  Amounts don’t matter.  Even investors with incredible assets suffer this never-ending lust.  A well documented example is Bunker Hunt’s huge losses when he speculated in silver in the 1970s.  He had hundreds of millions yet speculated it all to make even more. When is hundreds of millions not enough?

Develop your investment rules.  Whatever your passion you will need to establish your method – the criteria you will use to select shares for your portfolio.

Whatever your preference you need to establish your key criteria.  Once you have your method working well, improvements come from experience and practice – learning from the successes and failures of each and every investment you make.  The quote “The harder I practice, the luckier I get” applies here.

Know when to sell – and when not to.  A key factor in effective portfolio management is to run profits and cut losses.  This is counter-intuitive for most people because it is natural to want to grab a profit and rather unpleasant to realize a loss.

If you run your profits they can become very big.  If you cut your losses they will always be relatively small.

To understand this approach better, let me ask a question.  What if I offered you a free Mercedes Benz?

You would probably say YES… but would be thinking… “What’s the catch?”  That’s good because we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch, much less a free new car.

Would an answer be harder if instead there was a choice, a FREE Mercedes or $4 million bucks (as in US dollars)?

Most would choose the cash.  Yet of course we would still be expecting a catch.  There is a penny to drop, some risk and the need to ignore the thundering herd and an absolute requirement of discipline.

Let me share a true story about how and why an investor in similar circumstances got the Mercedes and had the $4 million, but then lost it.

The story contains three valuable tips.

Once upon a time, 1981 to be exact, there was a recession. An economic and political mess arose across the land.  The story began with unemployment.  In 1981, the US Presidential election was over, the US economy was hurting and the new government and president were turning on the money printing machine.

This was a gloomy time, those early 1980s.  Really.  That was the worst recession since the great depression.

You often hear that the worst recession since the great depression was the great recession of 2007.  This is statistically wrong.  1982 was worse.

The times were dark and this story begins at the end of the 1980 Presidential election when the US economy was at its worst in 50 years and getting worse.

Our hero in the story thought the stock market would recover, despite the fact that everyone thought everything was bleak and black.  He approached his bankers and asked to make some leveraged investments in the stock market.

His goal was to make enough profit to buy a brand new Mercedes Benz.

He opened the account and bought shares. He used those shares as collateral to leverage these investments with borrowed Japanese yen.

His timing was lucky.  The stock market rose quickly.  The Japanese yen collapsed.  His profits shot past his goal to buy the car.

The Fever

Bubble fever had set in so when the hero’s investment manager called with that great news, “You have enough for your new Mercedes“, the investor changed his mind.  “Let it roll,” the investor said.  “I want to make a million instead”.

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 1 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made a million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make two million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 2 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made two million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make three million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 3 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made three million bucks… really we should take some profits.

Let it roll,“… the investor said. “I have decided to make four million.”

As the portfolio was nearing four million in value the investment manager called.  “You have made almost four million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make four million and enough for a Mercedes.”

Shortly after the stock market corrected and the yen strengthened.  Profits fell so quickly the investor lost a million almost overnight.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost a million bucks… we had better take the profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market fell more and the yen grew stronger.  The profits fell even faster and the investor lost another million.

The investment manager called again.  “You have lost another million bucks… it’s time to take your profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market continued to plummet and the yen rose more.  The investor lost another million.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost three million bucks now…  You really should take the profits left.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

Finally as the market plunged more and profits faded away, the investor, having lost more than 3.5 million, closed his positions and had just enough profit left to buy his new car.

The Mercedez was black and shiny… a big 500 SEL model… king of the road.  The hero never enjoyed it much.

The moral of the story is that when you invest you need a plan, a discipline and to know when to holdem and when to foldem.

Remember that there are always three distinct options – buy, sell and hold.  We’ll look at how to decide when to buy, to sell and to hold later in this report.

Make sure you have some liquidity. You should always keep an eye on the “liquidity”, the ease with which you can sell all or part of your portfolio. If you are invested mainly in big cap stocks you will have little trouble going into cash if necessary.  However, if you have focused on smaller growth shares it makes sense to keep enough of your PIEC portfolio in large companies.

Select shares that can, if necessary, be turned into cash instantly and provide some comfort if the market as a whole turns ugly.

The potential gains on very large companies are not likely to be as high as those from smaller growth companies, but they can and often do well enough to give you a warm feeling.  Remember comfort counts!

Diversify – but not too much.  Your portfolio should contain no fewer than 10 shares, and you could put 10 percent of your money in each of your top selections.  Diversification is essential to reduce risk, but too much of it can hinder performance.

One of the best ways to have huge diversification in a small portfolio is with Country Index ETFs.  These ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

Most country index ETFs are invested in dozens, often a hundred or more, shares.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. With 72 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Australia.

A portfolio of a dozen country index ETFs represents diversification to hundreds of shares and a dozen currencies.

Diversifying into countries is safe because countries  generally do not go away, go bankrupt or become challenged by changing technology and altering markets.

Diversifying into countries is also relatively simple because, there is sufficient analysis of global markets so every country’s stock market can be compared and markets of best value included in a safe portfolio.

In addition these valuations do not change quickly.  In 2016 our portfolio of 20 good value country index ETFs had only one change, an addition of the Turkey Index ETF, in the year.

This low volume turnover gives us time to put our focus and energy on our business and the passion we love most.  Studies over decades suggests that this simple slow trading, highly diversified approach increases long term profits and increases safety.

Country ETFs provide massive, good value diversification at a really low cost.

Most passive country index ETFs have minimal cost structures.

#5: Keep costs down. 

High trading costs are one of the biggest drags on the performance of your PIEC portfolio.

There are numerous costs we need to keep an eye on.

Load fees. Avoid back-end and ongoing load. When looking at mutual funds, we’ll typically see them listed as A shares, B shares, and C shares.  All of these share classes have some type of load.  Avoid them.

A shares include a front-end, a guaranteed loss the minute you buy.  B shares come with a back-end load, a guaranteed reduction of any profit or expansion of any loss.  B shares typically charge 5% if they are sold within a specified time (normally five to seven years). There are also higher ongoing operating expenses for B shares. Fund companies typically charge up to an extra 1 percent a year for B share operating expenses.

C shares charge a penalty (usually 1 percent) if a sale is made within the first year.  They also carry higher expense ratios.

12b-1 fees are fees hard to see internal fees that cover a fund’s marketing and distribution costs. Funds can 12b-1 fees to pay brokers incentives for selling their funds. We should watch 12b-1 fees to make sure our broker is advising this fund because it is a good investment, not because he or she is receiving an incentive.

Management fees. We should make sure we get what we pay for, a good manager who makes us feel comfortable by helping build safety and steady performance in our portfolio.

Churning. Some funds and brokers churn, or buy and sell more than is really required.  History suggests that the less activity in a portfolio, the higher the return. Active management is one thing, but funds and brokers can increase their income with excessive transactions that do little or nothing to help us as investors.

Misallocation. Many investors are misallocated for the benefit of the bank or broker.  There are a remarkable array of unnecessarily risky, undiversified portfolios created to generate fees, and that have nothing to do with a client needs. Beware of complex and expensive portfolios full of bits and pieces that are hard to understand. Low transparency can often be associated with high costs.

Expense ratios in fund doesn’t cover all of the costs.  All investors, whether using funds or not face other costs such as brokerage and bid-ask spreads.

Bid-ask spreads for example are subject to market friction.  Markets are liquid because makers standing ready to buy or sell shares at all times.  They are paid by the difference between what they will buy and or sell for.

Shares that have less liquidity, ie.  Not many buyers and sellers, have bigger spreads between buying and selling prices.

Investing in widely held index funds and index ETFs can reduce this cost gap.  Such investments normally trade within fractions of a cent, keeping this this hidden expense in check.

Trading commissions make active trading an expensive way to increase profits. Trading costs sandbag our profits from the start.

Taxes need to also be considered. Buying and selling quickly increases fees and also creates short-term capital gains taxes.

Be careful of margin account as well. Most brokers will let us borrow money (for a fee) so we can leverage our investments.  This increases any profits or losses created, but also adds the interest cost of the leverage.

If we add up all the potential fees, redemption fees, brokerage fees, back-end load fees, management fees, inactivity fees, 12b-1 fees, transfer fees, minimum equity requirement fees, commissions, the cost of limit orders and consultancy costs, before investing.

We should know what all our fees are.

Passive Funds Usually Cost Less. Because reducing costs is a major factor in investment success, low cost passive funds that do not require high cost managers generally out perform managed funds in the long run.

Over a 15 or 25 year period very few managers outperform the respective benchmarks of sectors where they invest by a couple of percentage points.

It’s an easy way to game the stock market, and getting easier by the day.

In Part Two of this report we’ll look at the more speculative end of our PIEC portfolio.

While we are sharing this report, I want to make a special offer, limited to the next three days, that can help you integrate your business and investing.

We offer two courses for attaining financial security.

The first is our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.  The program contains  a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

You can learn all about this program at How to Have Real Freedom, but do not order the program there for $299 .  If you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course in the next three days, I’ll send you the program free.

I invite you to join me and a small selective group who for the next year will participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value to increase the value of and protect our savings, pensions, income and wealth in good times as well as devastating economic conditions.

Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example, in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you subscribe to Pi you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

Save $457.95 if You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $27  report “Silver Dip 2015” and the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through your own purposeful business and slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” and “Silver Dip 2015” plus the Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

I am so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email me within 60 days for a full refund  and keep the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” as my thanks for giving Pi a try.  

 

Leap into 2017


Should we invest in LEAP options?

A reader recently asked if our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) looked at the strategy of using LEAP Put Options to protect against a market collapse.

We do not look at any type of options in the course, but this does not mean that they can be a really valuable investment for certain types of investors.

Let’s first understand LEAP.  LEAPS is an acronym for Long Term Equity Anticipation Security.  LEAPS are options of longer term than common options.  LEAPS are available on approximately 2500 equities and 20 indexes.  As with traditional short term options, LEAPS are available in two forms, calls and puts.

Call options (including LEAPS) allow you to buy a specific share or index at a specified price (the strike price), for a certain period of time.  If the stock or index does not rise to meet that price before the expiration date, the option expires and becomes worthless.  Whatever the LEAP cost is lost.

Put options ((including LEAPS) allow you to sell a specific share or index at a specified price (the strike price), for a certain period of time.  If the stock or index does not meet that price before the expiration date, the option expires and becomes worthless.  Whatever the LEAP cost is lost.

LEAPS are highly leveraged investments that can be used for speculation or as insurance. 

Here is how to use value strategies to invest in LEAPS.  We are all unique, and some investors thrive at speculation.  There is a way to use that we do teach in our Pi course to invest in LEAPS, because determining value works as effectively for leveraged investment as it does for non-leveraged deals.  In fact, having  a mathematically based system for making decisions about which leaps to invest in can make a real difference between loss and gain.

keppler

(October 2016 Keppler Asset Management valuations)

For example, once a quarter (Jan. Apr. July, Oct.) Pi examines the valuation ratios of nealy 100 stock markets around the world.  In last October’s valuation, the Morgan Stanley Capital (MSCI) US Index  (2.87 price to book) versus the MSCI Europe Index (1.74 price to book) suggests that buying a PUT LEAP on one of the US share indexes would be good or buying a call LEAP on the iShares Europe MSCI ETF (Symbol IEV) or perhaps on the iShares Germany MSCI ETF (1.70 price to book) or iShares Japan MSCI ETF (1.23 price to book).

keppler

October 2016 Keppler Asset Management Good Value Developed Markets.

These are not recommendations.  Investing in LEAPS can become quite complicated (one reason I avoid them is to keep life simple). For example, instead of  buying Put PEAKS, some times it makes sense to sell Call PEAKS.   The decisions are all about the math and are complex.

I personally avoid leveraged investments because volatility makes me uncomfortable and the purpose of my investing is to feel more comfortable.  That does not mean that LEAPS are bad for everyone if you have the right emotional mentality for the increased, faster volatility that options create.

Good investing is more about knowing oneself than about knowing the short and medium trends in markets.  Many investors (including me) are not emotionally suited to deal with fast volatility.  Human nature causes many to feel greater emotion from loss than from gain and makes us at risk to the Behavior Gap.   We tend to sell our winners too soon and hold our losers too long.

I use a good value strategy instead.  We teach this strategy in our Personal investing Course (Pi).  There are several basic facts.

#1: There is always something we do not know.   The news we gain from mainstream media and the financial community does not help us clarify what may happen ahead.  We gain a clearer understanding of reality when we make decisions based on math rather than the opinions and conjecture thrown at us.

For example, we can see from the Keppler Valuations above that the US MSCI Index is much higher than Europe’s or the rest of the world, but we can also see that at a 2.87 price to book it is still very low from the 4.34 price to book of the MSCI All World Index in December 1999.

#2: Our most basic instincts of survival make owning shares a painful process.  Shares in general are up as much as they are down.  We react more strongly to losses than profits, and this causes most of us to be really lousy traders.

#3: Wealth is more than some number that freezes reality for some moment and time.  We each have a purpose in life. When we are in touch with that purpose in our work, in our family life,  in our investing, we have the greatest motivation and the highest odds of success.  Good investing requires motivation, dedication and stick-to-itness.

Options and leveraged contracts magnify the worst elements of human nature in me.  Each of us has to decide if we are emotionally equipped to be good traders or not.  If we are not,  highly leveraged investments make us worse.  I know myself and how I feel and react to sudden loss so I have avoided options for decades.

I personally like to keep my investing really simple.  I invest in an equally weighted portfolio of Country Index ETFs that represent the good value markets.  Last year we made one trade in the entire year.  This not only suits my comfort level better than speculation, but also gives me more time to focus my energy on my business which offers much higher profit and far more safety and greater satisfaction, fulfillment and fun than any investment in anyone else’s shares.

Each of us needs to decide if we want to take the risk to find out if we are that type of person.

I always suggest that any reader who has not used options, and really wants to start in the smallest possible way, but do start.  Do not try a test on paper.   Your access to information or your choice of ideas are not likely to be the determining factor of your profit or loss…in case you to win or lose.  It is your emotion and testing without risk or reward that does not reveal your emotional limits.  Start small and monitor how you feel versus how much you make or lose.  Try and see if you are one of the very few who have the nature to thrive with more losses than gains.

Start small and set an amount you are willing to lose.  Do not risk more than you can afford to lose.

Gary

Three Rivulets in an Economic Flood

Our world turned upside down when, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stock prices plummet and the earnings on their safe savings collapse to zero return.  That  financial ruin was created very much in part by banks that were “Too Big to Fail”.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that can create a greater economic landslide.  There are numerous scandals at US and overseas big banks.  These calamities can make the safety net of “Too Big to Fail”, too small.  The disintegration that ensues could ruin average investors in three ways.

The risk is systemic because the bigger the bank, the more corrupt it seems to be.  This makes sense.  These banks have little to lose.  Why not cheat and take risks?  When fraud and speculation fail, the bank is bailed out by taxpayers.  No one, except the customer, gets too badly harmed.

Wells Fargo is an example.  Even after new regulations and backups were put in place after 2009, this entire organization continued to treat clients with complete disdain.  To make matters worse the cheaters at the top of Wells Fargo were not really punished.  In fact they were pretty well paid considering they were crooks.  They were caught leading an organization with organized, outright fraud (smaller doses of the same thing would have sent you and me to jail).

There are several risk this creates.

First, banks will have more opportunity to cheat because of increased stock market turmoil.  Every part of the US stock market has reached an all time high.  Global stock market volatility has also picked up.  The world is in a period of technological, political and economic transformation.  None of the old rules are as certain as they used to be.  Nothing makes markets shakier than the unknown.

Second, the new administration will reduce bank regulations.  Reduced regulations are good for business but big overseas banks have especially taken advantage of investors and home owners.  Foreign big banks have acted with impunity and need to be regulated.r Donald Trump and the next administration.

Third, we’ll see rising interest rates.  Banks will raise interest rates as fast as they can.  The key to bank profitability is “Net Interest Margin”, the difference between the rate banks pay for deposits and money and what they charge for loans. 

The chart below from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank shows that bank net interest margin has been at an all time low.  The figures also reflect how and when the US Treasury bond rates rise, that there is an even higher Net Interest Margin increase shortly after.

fed chart

When interest rates collapsed in the late 2000s, banks made extra profit one time.  Their securities portfolios rose, loan defaults slowed and the cost of deposits fell.  Yet over time as new loans brought lower yields and the one-time boosts were gone, the lower interest rates squeezed bank profit margins.

The government and the Fed will want higher rates to avoid runaway inflation.  As the government increases borrowed spending, inflation will rise higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.  The Fed will increase interest rates.  The Fed is against inflation.  There is a powerful motivation to protect the aging population as more and more boomers go onto a fixed income.   This increases the odds that as inflation picks up, the government and the Fed will be aggressive at increasing interest rates.  This will strengthen the US dollar short term but hurt the US stock market because the strong dollar reduces the value of revenue generated overseas.

The rising interest rates will be accompanied by inflation.  The government and the Fed do not want inflation but they will create it anyway.  They will spend more and reduce tax that increases US debt financed by savings from Europe, China and Japan.  Currently, America’s gross debt is more than $19 trillion, or 105 percent of GDP.  This has been sustainable in recent years because interest rates have been at historic lows.  As rates rise from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019, government interest payments will more than triple from $250 billion in 2016 to more than $800 billion in 2026.  By 2030, interest alone will represent over 14 percent of the federal budget.  If interest rates rise even higher,  Federal payments will be even greater—a one percentage point increase costs the country an additional staggering $1.6 trillion over a decade.  If interest rates returned to the record-high levels of the 1980s, the country would pay $6 trillion more in interest alone.

The dollar will fall because almost half of this debt will be owed to countries abroad, especially Japan and China.

rate charts

The U.S. dollar has soared on bets that the US will see inflation.  The U.S. dollar recently hit a one year peak.  Currencies especially in emerging markets have fallen to new lows.  The higher interest rates and stronger U.S. dollar are causing the weakest risky assets to plummet.  Interest rates on U.S. Treasury 30-year paper at 3% are triple that of Germany’s 30-year yields of barely 1%.  A closing of this gap as Europe increases its interest will create a US dollar drop.

The cost of living will rise.  Higher interest rates will push up prices for almost everything and push stock prices low.  All of this hurts banking profitability and makes it more likely that big banks will cheat more.

Here are three steps to take that can protect your investments in this scenario. 

Protection #1: Avoid Too Big to Fail Banks.  When you use a global bank, you are not using just one institution.  You are dealing with a big business that owns multiple banks in different regions.  This has costly implications for how far the bank’s equity goes, and how small safe the particular bank you choose really is.  Plus banks with two or more sub banks have more ways to take advantage of investors.  For example, one division of a bank can be recommending an investment to customers while having another unit in another country sell the investment short.  The bank makes money in three ways: creating the investment, selling the investment to customers and selling it short when the investment implodes.

Distinct national or regional entities held locally are much simpler to repair or dismantle when things go wrong.  Banks create such ringfenced operations in several places, so regulators cannot see the big picture and to keep their ripped off rewards from fines and penalties.

Use local community banks where you can know your bankers, what they are doing and where their reputations are their most important asset.

Protection #2:  Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether you like to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Invest in a diversified portfolio based on fundamental value.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches  three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

The January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Emerging Markets”

keppler

Investing in this broad spectrum of good value does not mean that profits will come over night.  Often markets remain distorted for extended periods of time.

History shows, though, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

This tactic is a simple, easy and low cost way to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

The third tool Pi provides is a way to spot ideal position speculations to use sparingly to enhance performance with greater risk.

Protection #3:   Spot Distortions that Create Ideal Condition for Speculation.

Pi teaches the Silver Dip strategy.  This investing technique is only exercised when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Because of a dip in the price of silver, the Silver Dip 2015 returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.   In 2017 another precious metal speculation is even better.

silver chart

SLV share chart from www.yahoo.finance.com (1).

Imagine investing ahead of a spike like the silver spike shown above.  A new spike, but in another metal, is looming ahead.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce.  I knew I needed to share this experience with readers immediately.

In September 2015 I wrote, “The low price of silver offers special value now as silver’s price could begin to rise at any time”.

Here is what happened in the next nine months:

Shares in SLV (a silver ETF) rose from $13.50 to $19.35.  There was also a forex profit.  The British pound moved almost exactly as it did 30 years ago falling from 1.55 dollars per pound to 1.34 dollars per pound.

pound chart

Pound dollar chart at finance.yahoo.com (2)

6,451 pounds borrowed 9 months earlier at 1.55 converted to $10,000 to invest in the silver ETF SLV.   At 1.34 it only required  $86,440 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra forex profit.

This position has not run out of steam.  The price of SLV is likely to rise more though British pounds are no longer the currency to borrow.  The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows why replacing pound leverage with US dollar leverage is better.

There is a Better Metal to Speculate in Now

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Gold is the cornerstone of the Silver Dip.  When silver prices are too high or low versus gold, then the conditions become ideal for a silver speculation, if gold’s price is stable or too low.

Yet gold is one of the hardest assets to value.  As a gold bug who has been investing in gold since the mid 1970s, I know this is true.  I have seen too many predictions over the decades that have been wrong and I doubt that this will change in our lifetimes.

In early 2017, when the “Silver Dip 2017” report was released, gold did not fit the ideal criteria for speculation.  Gold was simply fairly valued.  A study in the “Silver Dip 2017” shows that the same amount of gold is needed today to buy a car, go to a movie or rent a home as was required in 1942.  The price of gold has risen 33 times since 1942, but since 1942 US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose from 1942 until 2016 47 times.  Cars jumped 36 times.  This is true of going to a movie, up 33 times or renting an apartment.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car today, you could do it.

Gold in the $1,200 range in January 2017 is a little low, but about where we would expect it should be.  Silver offers better opportunity than gold.  When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history suggests that silver is very undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.  Rarely has the ratio been as high as 80, only three times in 36 years.  The gold silver ratio was in the 70s at the beginning of 2017, an indicator that silver prices may rise faster than gold, but this ratio of 70, is not high enough to be called ideal.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) finance.yahoo.com echarts slv

(2) http://finance.yahoo.com echarts gbp-usd

 

Worst Pension Problems of All


What’s one of the worst pension problems of the world?   Developed economies offer pensions based on emerging market assumptions.

When emerging economies emerge they enjoy a rapid growth spurt.  Labor costs are low.  Regulations are few.   Farmers moving from the land to the factory need little training and offer one of the cheapest boosts in productivity of all.  Small business people work day and night.  Safety, fair wages and the health of workers are not prime factors.  Survival is the key. Low wages and poor conditions are better than starvation, which is the worst condition of all.

A middle class forms. Workers gain some political clout, demand more (as they should) and their children move into higher level careers.  Costs and the time required to prepare the population for the workplace rise.  Some money has to be set aside for the portion of the work force that does not step up to the next level.  Growth slows.

If the economy gets it right, some new technology and new way to produce and live and cooperate comes along; electricity, the steam engine, the car, radio, TV, computer internet and so forth.  Each product creates new productivity and a new market and even developed economies surge ahead from the making and buying of the innovation.

In between each great innovation, there is a transition stage where economic growth stagnates:  the people, government and industry try to stimulate growth in artificial ways and when this does not work, they panic as a whole and become risk-averse.

During the emerging stage of an economy, the option for poor people is to put in full effort, or die or live a life too miserable to contemplate.  Developed economies in a transition stage have some fat available, some capital to hold onto and fight over the way its shared.

The developed Western economies are in eras of transition.  There is plenty of innovation,  artificial intelligence, gene therapy, robotics and software apps.   But almost all of it is incremental innovation, not revolutionary and none of this brings better standards of  living for the majority.

For example, driverless cars are an incremental innovation integrating cars and computers.  This innovation can free hundreds of thousands from having to work as drivers.  But what will those who were the drivers do?  A few will become richer, Tesla, Uber and such will make billions.  Maybe the economic numbers will even rise.  Yet a higher portion of the population will be poorer.

The car on the other hand was a revolutionary innovation.  This replaced the horse and buggy, but every horse and buggy driver could become a car driver and everyone who had access to a car could go further, carry more, reach new markets, etc.  The majority became richer.

Economies grow by helping workers labor more effectively.  When changes help everyone work together to produce more, the total factor productivity rises.  The majority profit.  The total factor productivity is the real factor behind a nation’s economic growth.  The growth peaked in the US in the 1950s at a rate of 3.4% a year as technology such as electricity, aviation and antibiotics worked their way into the mainstream.

“Total factor productivity” has steadily slowed since the 1950s and in the last ten years has averaged about half a percent.

A Wall Street Journal Article “The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We are Out of Big Ideas” points out why the standard of living for the majority has stagnated.  “Outside of personal technology, improvements in everyday life have been incremental, not revolutionary.  Houses, appliances and cars look much like they did a generation ago.  Airplanes fly no faster than in the 1960s.  None of the 20 most-prescribed drugs in the U.S. came to market in the past decade.”

Until the next big technological advance comes along, economic stagnation is likely to continue.

The global economy continues to grow.  There are more people making and consuming more products and services, but that growth has slowed down to the point that those who have not advanced technologically do not get a big enough slice of the pie to be satisfied.  Even without any great new thing, the developed world has still created incredible riches over the past half century.  The global economy has more than doubled.  Yet a huge portion of  the developed workforce has had almost no growth in real income.   Slow growth in developed countries has been the norm for decades.  This has caused the workforce and voters to be unhappy.

One way politicians and big businesses quell this discontent is by promising future benefits, without creating a way to actually delivering them.  Pensions and Social Security are prime examples.

For example Calpers, (California Public Employees’ Retirement System) the largest pension in the U.S, promises future benefits based on the calculation that it will earn 7.5% on its investments each year.   Last year it earned only 2.4%.

Calpers is reducing this 7.5% expected rate 7.5% with a goal to ultimately reduce the rate to 6.5%, although that could take decades.  The rate was already reduced from 7.75% after a disappointing 1% gain in 2011.

The problem is that even 6.5% will be too high unless some revolutionary innovation comes along.

This puts politicians and businesses between a rock and a hard spot because lower investment returns for future benefits mean greater contributions are required now.  Government costs and taxes increase or there is a reduction in government services.  Businesses are forced to increase pension funding or reduce promises of future benefits that are offered to workers.

Social Security is in the same boat.  Even before the new federal administration takes office the chairman of the House Social Security subcommittee, has introduced a 54-page bill, “Social Security Reform Act of 2016”, that would slash Social Security benefits for all but the very poorest beneficiaries.  The bill helps the lower level earners in some ways by eliminating the retirement earnings test so its easier to double-dip wages and Social Security benefits.  Minimum benefits for those who worked their lives through with low wages would also be increased.

Yet there are many downsides for those on the lower side of earnings and wealth.  The retirement age would be raised to 69.  Cost-of-living adjustments would be cut.  Taxes that high earners now pay on a portion of their benefits would even be cut.  In other words, higher earners would benefit.  The poorer segment of the economy would also be far more vulnerable to most government’s biggest trick:  inflation.  More dollars promised for the future, but those dollars when delivered buy less.

Unfunded promises made in years past with overly optimistic promises have sold the future short.   The future is here and now and the purchasing power of pensions and Social Security are deteriorating.   Many investors, economists, politicians and leaders are confused.  The slow growth has angered much of the public.

We can profit from this fact because most people don’t realize that this is the norm.   Since the 1800s, the industrialization of the world has risen in 30 year fits and starts in a “Cycle of War”.

The “Cycle of War” begins when there is a conflict of such urgency that all concepts of return on investment are thrown out the window.  Huge resources are thrown at refining new technology to help win the struggle.   After the war, the technology shifts from military to domestic use and great increases of productivity are gained.  The productivity leads to new fortunes and starts an economic bubble.  The bubble overextends and bursts.  The burst leads to economic stress and new struggles.  Once again R&D accelerates and leads to new and refined technology.

Fwd: dji-chart tgas:"2011-12-17"

We can see the “Cycles of War” by looking at this chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.  WWI, WWII, and the Cold War (Reagan and Thatcher fighting the Evil Empire) could be called War III.

The chart below suggests that the cycle is out of whack, with the Dow nearing 20,000.  Perhaps low interest rates or worries about the Middle East, China, Europe. The yuan and euro leave investors with fewer options than the US stock market.  If so and if the theory is still relevant, we’ll see a sharper than normal correction.

 

stock chart

Logic dictates that we should ask, “When and where is the next war?”  An even more important question, “What new technology which changes everything will emerge?”

The thrust of the next war might have to do with cyber security and communications.   If so, we can see skirmishes heating up from the hacking of political emails, theft of a billion Yahoo accounts and viruses in NSA code.

The reality is we cannot know what war will erupt.  We have even less chance of  guessing what the next revolutionary innovation will be.  Startup investors protect against this by investing a little in many innovators, expecting to lose on most but win big on a few.  Venture investors who bet on Compaq, Commodore, Burroughs, Control Data, Honeywell, Netscape, Origin Systems, Sirius Software, Apple and Microsoft, may have had an 80% failure but probably did well overall because of the two winners in the portfolio.

This type of investing suits some investors well.  A little of such speculation may be good for most investors.  Mostly, though, we should protect our wealth and savings beyond our pensions and Social Security with slow moving, low cost, highly diversified good value investments.

The simplest such investment is a single global equity ETF such as the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT).  If you seek a balance to US investments, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (symbol VEU) invests only in 2,537 non US shares.  VEU is huge ($24.6 billion under management) and has a really low expense ratio of 0.13%, 88% lower than the average expense ratio of funds with similar holdings.

Pensions and Social Security may not be enough to secure a future.  Unfunded promises based on unrealistic growth are subject to reduced purchasing power.  Whichever approach you take to securing your future, look beyond the promises and put your trust in value rather than political promises.

Gary

See how I diversify in slow moving, low cost, highly diversified good value investments with Pi.

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Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

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I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary