Tag Archive | "Value investing"

Equity Seasonality Warning


Earlier this month we sent our Purposeful Investing subscribers a warning about Seasonality.

We quoted one of the investment managers we track (Eric Roseman) who wrote: “Beware Worst Months of Seasonal Weakness”.

Though I’m tempted to plug one or two international stocks, I’m going to wait until later next
month or beyond. We’re soon entering the gates of the worst month of the year, statistically
speaking, for the S&P 500 Index. October might be infamous for two major stock-market
crashes in 1929 and 1987, but September is notoriously bad for stocks and other risk assets.

According to Yardeni Research, September has averaged a 1% loss from 1928 to 2017. Other
losing months include February and May, down 0.1% each.

We sent this note because the best period of stock market growth begins again in November 2018.  This means that September and October stock markets may tumble.  This can create losses, but low prices can also offer extra value.

Keppler Asset Management, another investment manager we track,  agrees with seasonality so we like to remind readers that the worst month’s in the stock market can create value opportunity.

A statistical analysis was done some years ago by Michael Keppler. This study shows that most appreciation in most major equity markets, is achieved from the beginning of November through the beginning of May.

Michael wrote: “Gary, We have done extensive research on seasonality and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. All the best to you and Merri. Michael

Keppler showed that over 30 years the Dow grew 8.16% overall.

There was 8.36% Growth in the months November through April.
There was 0.37 growth in the months May  to October.
$100 invested in the Dow grew to $848 overall over the 3o years.
$100 invested in the Dow grew to $1,067 if it were invested only in the months of November through April.

$100 invested in the Dow dropped to $79 if it were invested only in the months of May to October.

Historically the best six months for the best chances of equity profits starts in about 60 days.

There is no on-off switch but we should be thinking more about risk aversion and value accumulation, beginning about now,  until November.

Eric Roseman shared one idea that may do well at this time in the Advisory Extra bulletin when he wrote: “Why Low Stock-Market Volatility is Your Ticket to Big Gains”.

After skyrocketing earlier last February, global market volatility has since plunged to its lowest levels in nine months as complacency returns amid a ten-year secular bull market. From a high the first week of February at 37.32, the CBOE Volatility Index has crashed 68% to 12.02.

Throughout 2017, the VIX, a stock-market fear gauge, traded at its lowest levels since its introduction in 1993. Despite a brief spike in the first quarter, volatility remains depressed.

But with U.S. stocks still fetching their second-highest multiples in history, the Fed still hiking interest rates and trade wars escalating, the bull market in corporate earnings might be approaching its zenith – if it hasn’t already. Companies have started to raise prices to compensate for rising input costs. And the tonic of big corporate tax cuts enacted in December is bound to run out gas later this year or in 2019. The odds are therefore high that corporate operating margins are going to decline over the next several months, and that means heightened volatility.

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If you invest in a portfolio of global stocks and other risk-based assets like high-yield bonds, commodities, real estate or foreign currencies, holding an asset that can potentially thrive as volatility increases can cushion your losses. Finding alternative assets that appreciate in a bear market isn’t easy: Only a few such securities in the past have posted gains, including the Japanese yen (our favorite), the Swiss franc, Treasury securities and on occasion, gold.

There are a number of ETFs that claim to do better during periods of volatility such as the iShares Edge MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Global share ETF (ACWV) and the iShares Edge MSCI US Minimum Vol USA ETF (USMV).  My analysis is that these low volatility ETFs don’t protect much and perform poorly long term compared to standard indices such as the Dow, NASDAQ, etc.

Eric suggests a specific equity that may do well during the increased volatility in the August advisory.

Eric wrote: I think investors looking to hedge their risk exposure can add another security to the list of
potential market hedges: High Frequency Trading firms. Following a huge drubbing since
peaking last spring, the leading firm in this space has tanked a cumulative 46%, offering an
exceptional entry point for new investors.

High Frequency Trading companies or HFTs use computers and speedy connections to exchanges to buy and sell shares in fractions of a second. It’s a controversial business due to critics like financial author, Michael Lewis, who accused high-speed traders of exploiting ordinary investors in the 2014 book, ‘Flash Boys.’

Though it’s true that HFTs arbitrage securities to make quick profits, we like the business because it’s incredibly profitable amid high periods of volatility.

Case in point: February 5 to 9, 2018. HFTs in our ENR Safe-Haven Portfolio posted gains of 35% to 55% in just four days of trading that week when world markets plunged. Heavy volume and volatile markets are ideal for trading firms and we own stakes in two of largest companies.

The warning here is volatility may be ahead for the next two months.  Equities that lose less in bear markets or do well during periods of high volatility may be a good addition to portfolios now.

Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course to see details of the specific equity recommended now along with a stop loss and trading analysis by Tradestops.com showing good price points for this medium risk equity with a 23.81% volatility quotient.  Details are below.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Why There is Always Something We Do Not Know


The first rule of investing is that there is always risk.   There is always something we do not know.

Did the recent drop in the share price of Facebook shake your confidence?   About $120 billion of  wealth was wiped in just a day.  Facebook shares dropped  19 percent in one of the largest one-day losses of a company’s stock market value.

Is this the beginning of a market crash or is this an opportunity?

History strongly supports the fact that the economic expansion is mature and should slow.  Since 1854, the U.S. has had 34 expansions. The periods of growth have lasted from less than a year to ten years. The current expansion in its 10th year, is the second longest of all (The 1990s expansion was longer).

Is the Facebook crunch the trigger pulled that starts a crash?

Maybe we’ll know later today.  Maybe not.

A lot of our investing strategy is based on the idea that this expansion is doomed to end soon.  It probably will, but… there is always something we do not know.

Expansions do not have to end.

For example the Wall Street Journal article How an Economic boom Can Run Out the Clock” (1)  says: Australia is experiencing an amazing economic run—a 27-year expansion that survived a regional economic crisis in the 1990s, a global economic crisis in the 2000s, and a boom-boost cycle in its core commodity sector in the 2010s.

Australia paid down gross government debt from 32% of gross domestic product in 1994 to less than 10% in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, effectively socking away resources during good times, taking some steam out of an already strong economy and leaving the government with a cushion to support the economy on a rainy day.

When the global crisis hit in 2008, Australia cut taxes and increased spending, pumping 70 billion Australian dollars (US$52 billion) into its economy, equal to 1.6% of economic output, more than U.S. stimulus equal to 1.25% of output, according to Australian Treasury Department estimates.

The US expansion probably will end.

At least it will not be prudent planning, reduced spending and saving by the government that provides  strength during a downturn.

As the chart below from the ST. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (2) shows, during this expansion, the US has increased its debt to over 105% of GDP… ten times that of the debt that Australia had.

But there is always something we do not know.

An unknown future is not something to fear, but it should be acknowledged, respected and planned for.

The thought here is to not throw history out the window.  When it comes to investing, the ability to look back is a really valuable tool.

The good news is, no one knows, so we are all equal in that way.

Create your plans. Get started. Go for it. Take a shot, but always temper you expectations with this reality.  Our reflections from the past are useful.  Our plans, powerful.  Our actions always fruitful in some way.  But the fruit is not always what we expect because there is always something we do not know.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: How an economic boom can run out the clock

(2) fred.stlouisfed.org: US Debt as % of GDP

The Special Value of Value Now


Value investing has not been been in favor over the past few years.

This is why I created a course on investing in value.  There is extra opportunity in being out-of-step with markets.

First let me explain that even though value investments have not been the flavor of the era, our portfolios of value equities have done well.  The image below shows my personal Motif.com account that I created so we could track it in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).

This value portfolio (blue line) kept up nicely with the S&P 500 (green line) since we began this course, (Until May 2018.  In a moment I’ll explain why this current lag creates an extra, third opportunity).

pifolio

This portfolio is composed approximately 70% of shares from the Keppler Asset Management Developed Market Top Value Strategy and 30% from the Keppler Asset Management Emerging Market Top Value Strategy.

The strategy is to invest in Country ETFs that track the MSCI Indexes of the 18 best value stock markets (out of 43 markets) that Keppler tracks.   Here is the portfolio right now.  These are my actual investments in this portfolio.

motif.com

motif.com

Keppler asset management

This portfolio currently has triple “extra potential” value.

The first extra value is simply in pricing.  Top Value developed markets have a price-to-book that is “less than half” the US market (1.50 versus 3.29 for the US).  The PE ratios and dividend yields are also much better for these top value markets.

keppler asset management

The emerging markets have even better price to book rations, P/E ratios and yields.

keppler asset Management

The second “extra potential” value comes from extra performance when there is a major market shift and value stocks become popular again.

Value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged behind growth equities since 2009.   However research by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch over a 90-year period, found that while growth stocks returned an average of 12.6% annually since 1926.  Value stocks returned 17% per year over the same time frame.

Screen Shot 2018-07-10 at 5.46.39 PM

When the markets shift back to value, value shares will gain an “extra potential” spurt.

The third “extra potential” is based on currencies shifts.  The recent lag of our portfolio (versus the S&P 500) since May 2018  is due to the sudden rise of the US dollar.   This www.finance.yahoo chart,  “euro versus the dollar” shows how the euro weakened beginning in May 2018.

www.fincnae.yahoo.com

The Chinese yuan and other currencies have suffered downturns versus the greenback as well.

The factors above create a triple win proposition.

There are three other benefits in this strategy.

#1: Investing this way saves time.  Investing in country ETFs is a simple, easy fast way to invest.

#2: This type of portfolio saves on trading and management fees.    The ETFs have low fees.  Over the past 2.5 years our portfolio has had only four trades.

#3: There is enormous diversification in this portfolio.  A share in a country ETF represents an investment into dozens or hundreds of shares in the target country of the ETF.

During this era when value is unpopular, our Pi Top Value Portfolio has performed well.   Right now value investments have a special place to protect our savings and help them grow.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Value and Profits in the Mid-Cap


Here’s an investing truth we should not ignore…  “The best times in the economic cycles, are the worst time to invest in shares.”

And right now, the economic cycle is very good.

Let’s review this cycle, the risk and opportunities it creates now.

economic cycles

The current cycle is very mature.  Investors should watch out for:

  • Rising Inflation
  • Rising Bond Yields
  • Falling Unemployment
  • Expanding PE Multiples
  • Rising Short Interest Rates

These factors are leading indicators and signs of  a recession ahead.

How soon will we see a recession?

No one knows, but last week’s Wall Street Journal article “Fed Officials Debate Signal From Flattening Yield Curve: Is This Time Different?”(1)  gave us a warning that rising short interest rates are signaling a rising economic risk.

The article says: The gap between short-and longer-term Treasury yields has fallen to levels last seen in 2007.

We all remember what happened in 2007!

The article says: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and some of his colleagues are laying the groundwork to slow down the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases if they foresee a bond-market development that has traditionally been a harbinger of recession.

At issue is the narrowing spread between short- and longer-term Treasury yields, a difference known as the yield curve.

The gap typically shrinks when the Fed raises short-term rates. But when short-term Treasury yields rise higher than longer-term yields, a so-called inverted yield curve, a recession has almost always followed within a year or two.

Mr. Bostic’s concerns are taking on new urgency because the spread, measured by comparing yields on two- and 10-year Treasurys, has fallen to levels last seen in 2007. It dropped below 0.3 percentage point last week, down from 0.5 percentage point three months ago and 1 percentage point one year earlier.

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“Any inversion of any sort is a surefire sign of a recession,” said Mr. Bostic in an interview last month. “I want us to avoid being in a situation where” the curve inverts.

The debate over how much importance to place on an inverted yield curve could grow more fraught in the months ahead if U.S. economic growth remains strong and global growth falters. That could spur a flight to safe assets such as long-term Treasurys, pushing long-term yields below short-term yields.

A recent Purposeful Investing lesson shared an idea from Eric Roseman, CEO of ENR Asset Management, about an  equity opportunity that makes sense in this part of the cycle.  (Bolds are mine).

Eric wrote: Hunting for Mid-Cap Value in Late Stage Rally

Since last spring, a major market shift has occurred: Investors have dumped foreign assets in favor of domestic U.S. stocks and to a lesser extent, Treasury bonds as the U.S. dollar surges, emerging markets come undone and a full-scale global trade war heads into unchartered territory. Most large-cap American multinationals aren’t the ideal destination for investors as the dollar strengthens and tariffs are slapped on their goods sold abroad. But for domestic enterprises, like small-cap and mid-cap companies, sales are largely insulated from the travails of a global trade spat.

Investors have already picked over the small-cap space as the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index and the Russell 2000 Index continue to hit new all-time highs while the S&P 500 Index remains about 5% below its January 26 high.

Eric then explains that value continues to lag in the mid-cap sector of this bull market. This creates opportunity as we approach the latter innings of this 10-year economic expansion.

Eric recommends the Vanguard Mid Cap Value ETF  (2) that tracks the performance of the CRSP US Mid Cap Value Index.   This is a a broadly diversified index of value stocks of mid-size U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by holding each stock in the index in about the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

The chart above of the Vanguard Mid Cap Value ETF (dark blue) shows how this fund has fallen far behind the performance NASDAQ Index (light blue) in the past five years.

This ETF represents and easy way to continue seeking value in the over priced US equity market at these late stages in the economic cycle.

Gary

The 70 Year Iron Correlation

Correlations can shine light on reality.   Correlations can help us spot realities that most of the world do not see.  Reality consists of innumerable cycles.  If we can understand a cycle, when it starts and ends, then we can better understand what’s next!

iron lung

The Dreaded Iron Lung

Are there clues in a cycle that correlates the Iron Curtain and the Iron Lung?  If so, what can this correlation help us see?

Every morning I rise around 5 a.m., meditate in the awakening of bird songs and open my mind and heart to correlations.  The connection that came to mind yesterday morning puzzles me. Will you help me think through whether or not I have spotted a clue to what the future might hold?

Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula this year.   Though the Russians now appear to have backed off,  I think they got the main objective they wanted.

If you are a boomer who grew up as I did during the Cold War under the threat of nuclear devastation, you might still be thinking “Oh, no, not again”!

Polio is a global health emergency again.  Here is an excerpt from last week’s New York Times article “Polio’s Return After Near Eradication Prompts a Global Health Warning” by Donald G.  Mcneil Jr.

Alarmed by the spread of polio to several fragile countries, the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency on Monday for only the second time since regulations permitting it to do so were adopted in 2007.

Just two years ago — after a 25-year campaign that vaccinated billions of children — the paralyzing virus was near eradication; now health officials say that goal could evaporate if swift action is not taken.

Pakistan, Syria and Cameroon have recently allowed the virus to spread — to Afghanistan, Iraq and Equatorial Guinea, respectively — and should take extraordinary measures to stop it, the health organization said.

Boomers who grew up with the gloom and fear of polio and the iron monster lung may be thinking, “Oh, no, not again”.

What is the correlation between Russia in the Ukraine and Polio?

Philosophical author Carolyn Myss (2) writes about national consciousness and how 1929 and the Great Depression left America, “financially crippled”.  She writes:  Crippled – that’s how Americans described themselves in the 1930’s.  In keeping with the psychic nature of epidemics, and epidemics tend to emerge out of a traumatized social event or catastrophe, the polio epidemic struck in the 1930’s, crippling children around the country.  Indeed, America was now completely crippled, from its tribal chakra through to its spiritual crown.

A president was elected during the 1930’s who also a victim of polio – FDR. He was exactly what the collective soul of America needed, a leader who knew what they were going through in terms of being psychically crippled, and yet he was a man of wisdom and strength.

Then she explains how after World War II America was alive again, thriving and “back on its feet again”.  By the 1950’s, Jonah Salk discovered the vaccine for polio.  America was more than ready to not only shed its epidemic consciousness but make an evolutionary leap in consciousness to the “Self and Wealth” generation.

Here is why I need your help!

As I meditated on the Ukraine and polio and the thoughts of Carolyn Myss, I asked, what is this correlation?

Later I this revelation occurred.. Russia began the invasion of the Ukraine in 1921 and formed “The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1922.  The Soviet Republic broke up in 1991.

Franklin D. Roosevelt’s paralytic illness began in 1921 after exercising heavily during a vacation in Canada.

In 1988, the World Health Organization, together with Rotary International, UNICEF, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention passed the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, with the goal of eradicating polio by the year 2000. The Initiative was inspired by Rotary International’s 1985 pledge to raise $120 million toward immunising all of the world’s children against the disease.  The last case of wild poliovirus poliomyelitis in the Americas was reported in Peru, August 1991.

What do these correlations mean?

Roosevelt’s Polio started in America 1921.  Russia began an invasion into the Ukraine in 1921.

The Soviet Ukraine ends in 1991.  Polio is eradicated in the Americas in 1991.

The  Soviets begin an invasion into the Ukraine in 2014.  The WHO (World Health Organization)  declared a global polio health emergency in 2014.

I am intrigued but stumped and would like to brainstorm with you and share your input, thoughts and opinions.  Is this a correlation or coincidence?   If there is a correlation, what might it mean?

The implications and useful ideas on “What’s next?” could be profound, helpful and meaningful from the extrapolations we gain from understanding the relationships of these correlations!  At the least, thinking about this a bit might stimulate our thinking about the future, what Russia and viruses might bring, when and why.

Gary

Correlations help us better understand the National Psyche which can bring fulfillment and wealth.  Learn seven steps to unleashing the power in the National Psyche below.

(1) Polio’s Return

(2) Carolyn Myss on the Polio President

(3) Formation of Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic

(4)  Roosevelt’s Polio

(5) Polio Eradication in the Americas

(1) www.wsj.com: Fed officials debate signal from flattening yield curve

(2) Finance.yahoo.com: Vanguard Mid Cap Value ETF

The Obvious “Unbelievable”


Unbelievable

That’s the beginning title of a Wall Street Journal article “This is Unbelievable’: A Hedge Fund Star Dims, and Investors Flee” (1).

The article says: After more than a decade of winning and unconventional behavior, David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital has shrunk by half. Frustrated clients are bolting

For years, David Einhorn’s investors didn’t seem to mind his unusual ways—the aloofness toward clients, midday naps, unpopular stock picks, late nights on the town. Until the billionaire hedge-fund manager fell into a slump.

After more than a decade of winning on Wall Street, Mr. Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. has shrunk to about $5.5 billion in assets under management, his investors estimate, from a reported $12 billion in 2014, and his investments are struggling.

The value of an investment in Mr. Einhorn’s main fund was down 11.3% at the end of 2017 from 2014’s end. The S&P 500 grew 38.3%, including dividends, in the same period. The average stock-focused hedge fund gained 18.3% in the period, according to HFR, a firm that tracks hedge funds.

The fund dropped 7.7% in June and is down 18.7% for the year, compared with a rise of 2.65% for the S&P 500 and 1% for stock hedge funds.

The obvious unbelievable is not this man’s failure but the fact that investors find these losses unbelievable.

One benefit of my 50 years experience is an ever growing respect for the phrase… “past performance is no guarantee of future returns”.

The canopy of history is painted with stars who had an idea that worked well… until it did not.

These investors looked like geniuses until their investments crashed and burned.

There are a few exceptions, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and John Templeton, to name a few, but they would be the first to tell you that year to year, we never know how their investments will perform.

How to get investment reliability.

The only test of investment reliability that has surviveed the test of time is time.

The charts below are excerpts from our Purposeful Investing Course.  These charts reveal lessons about the effect of time horizons on risk.

keppler asset allocation study

The chart above deals with return, risk and time horizons.  This chart shows, that over the 89 year period, the best one year indices’ performance was 162.8%.   That is good.

However the worst was a -67.5% loss in one year.  That is bad.

The average return over the 89 years was 12.3%.   The story changes considerably for a five year holding period.   The highest return is down to 36.1%, but the worst loss was only – 17.1%.

After 20 years the average per annum return dropped to 12.1% but there was no risk of loss.

Time reduces risk if you have a diversified portfolio.  A potential decline in the price of a stock does not ultimately raise the risk if the decline is temporary and the probability of selling during the decline is low.

The diagrams below show that equity investments can fluctuate widely from year to year, offering potential for high returns but also high risk.  As holding periods become longer, the fluctuations decrease.  The performance between stocks and fixed interest investments also widen.

The fact that equity returns fluctuate widely in the short run and significantly outperform bonds in the long run illustrates the importance of the investment time horizon.

keppler Asset Allocation chart

keppler Asset Allocation chart

These charts show that investing in a five year period is much safer than a one year period.  If you have a 15 year time horizon, the risk of loss, even in stocks is almost negligible.

Here are questions to answer for your particular investing needs:

What is your time horizon?

What average return do your investment alternatives yield over comparable periods of time?

In addition to selecting the best class of assets with the correct time horizons for your needs, the best way to reduce risk is to apply sound margin-of-safety concepts such as purchasing securities below their intrinsic value and diversification.

Investing in indices provides the diversification and our Purposeful Investing Course teaches how to easily select good value country stock market ETFs to hold long term for the highest probability of maximum return.

When we invest, we always accept risk.  It is simply unbelievable that an investment is without risk.

Believe that there is always something we do not know.

Manage your investments accordingly.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

www.wsj.com: This is unbelievable a hedge fund star dims

 

Nothing Lasts Forever


Our friend Eric Roseman sent the note below that offers a FREE report on crisis investing because no market trend lasts forever.

Nothing lasts for ever.  Not good times, and not bad times.

ENR Asset anagement

In the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, I thought the financial system would implode amid a deep freeze in bank credit and collapsing stock prices.

Eventually, the financial press coined this devastating financial event as ‘The Great Recession.’

In reality, 2008 wasn’t a Great Recession. It was a soft global depression, rescued by the incredible unconventional workings of the Federal Reserve and other global central banks to rescue the financial system at any cost. And so it was rescued.

Almost a decade later, the total cost of quantitative easing (QE) from the world’s three largest central banks (Fed, ECB and BoJ) is just under $15 trillion-dollars, according to Yardeni Research. Nothing of this comparable size has ever been experimented in the modern world and to-date, we still don’t know how central banks will unwind their bloated balance-sheets, if at all.

But one thing is certain.

We will encounter another economic recession one day.

It’s a 100% probability.

Economic expansions don’t last indefinitely and this one is already the second-longest in duration at a combined 107 months — and counting.

Making matters potentially worse, the Federal Reserve has been mostly responsible for triggering every major recession since 1913; with the Fed still tightening, inflation gradually rising and consumer sentiment near all-time highs, risk-based assets like stocks, real estate and most bonds are vulnerable to a major price correction.

Stocks have more than tripled off their March 2009 lows and are fetching their second-most expensive valuation in history, according to the Shiller-CAE P/E Ratio. At the very least, stocks won’t repeat the performance of the past decade because interest rates are rising, central banks are increasingly withdrawing liquidity and credit has mushroomed the world over reaching fresh records almost a monthly basis.

Bonds, which have acted as a reliable ‘safe haven’ asset when stocks plunge since 1998, have begun to show a positive correlation to equities again for the first time since the 1970s. That’s a bad omen because if stocks AND bonds decline over an extended period, what’s left in the financial markets is portfolio destruction because of their combined weight in most institutional products, including pension funds, ETFs, mutual funds etc.

In our view, a bear market is highly likely over the next 12-24 months.

Are you prepared?

To help you prepare better I would like to offer you a free report. The ENR Crisis Investing Portfolio Report.

This is a good time to hedge your unrealized stock-market gains with a portfolio constructed to appreciate when bear market mayhem strikes.

The report will help you understand how to hedge risk, how our flagship managed accounts in 2008 lost just under 5% versus losses of more than 40% for global benchmarks.

We actually gained 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to a 22% crash for the MSCI World Index.

Better to be prepared than sorry.

Order the FREE ENR Crisis Investing Portfolio Report here.

erci roseman

Sincerely,

Eric N. Roseman

Live Long & Prosper More

One of the most frequent questions readers ask is “How can I make my savings safer but also sufficient?”

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a good value strategy that makes sure they do not lose, but increase their wealth again and again.

What is this strategy?  It is a good value strategy based on three tactics.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses to time to take advantage of value.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends): Michael Keppler, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer (for currency positions) and Richard Smith, PhD (for trailing stop alerts).

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.   To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy, it is necessary to construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the overall portfolio.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs that are similar to index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.  More about the gap in a moment.

Learn how to create profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire. By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

To help overcome this gap, we continually test the Pifolio, created with Keppler’s value analysis  with a unique trailing stop system created by our friend, Dr. Richard Smith.  His Smart Trailing Stops 2.0 alerts us to any of the shares which deviate from their good value status.

tradestops.com

Richard Smith received a PhD in Mathematical Systems Theory from New York State University, Binghamton, after completing his undergraduate degree at the University of California, Berkeley.  He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed!

Third, we test the portfolio again using a contrarian, protection oriented analysis of ENR Asset Management.

The nature of value investing is to be contrary.  Markets rise and fall, long term, guided by forces of nature.  Markets jump up and down, short term, based on the human whims of fear and greed.  Hot markets are almost always overbought and severely corrected markets are almost always oversold.  This makes contrarian investing really simple.  All you need to do is what most investors are not.  Right?

Nothing in investing is ever simple.  Doing whatever the majority of the market is not doing may expose you to good value stocks, but this process also reveals troubled companies.  Good value selectivity is also required to create an effective contrarian strategy.  Contrarian investors need tactics that weed out the dogs from the good value.

erci roseman

Eric Roseman manages ENR Global Contrarian Accounts.

ENR’s Contrarian Value Account buys distressed global, dividend-paying equities at near low prices.

The margins of safety the fund seeks is low price, low debt,  high cash-flow, strong global brands and strong management.

ENR looks for ‘event-driven’ change; spinoffs and macro catalysts that lead to change and revaluation.  For example shares in oil companies are being revalued now.

The fund only invests in stocks that pay dividends, have growth greater than inflation and are near or at 52-week low prices.

ENR’s flagship managed accounts in 2008 lost just under 5% versus losses of more than 40% for global benchmarks.

ENR accounts actually gained 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to a 22% crash for the MSCI World Index.

Then I add my fifty years of experience.

For example in the 1980s, I spotted a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value non US developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a powerful report “Silver Dip 2018”.  

The best way to protect and increase your savings and wealth is with a good value portfolio of equities.

Once this type of portfolio is in place, it can be enhanced with select speculations in precious metals when the price of these metals are in ideal conditions for speculation (as they are now).

No Cash is Required

The good value equity portfolio is used as collateral to make a conservative margin investment in precious metals ETFs.

Such leveraged speculations make the most sense when metals are at good value prices as gold is now.

I have spent substantial time researching to determine a fundamental real value for gold based on genuine purchasing power.  The math I use suggests that gold should be priced at about $1,350 and ounce at this time.  I work on the premise that above $1,350 an ounce, buying gold is a speculation that is not supported fundamentally.

I work on the theory that when gold is priced at $1,350, or below, it’s a good value for long term investing and thus for speculation.

Then I look at silver and platinum also to see if they are better value than gold (they both are better value now).

Next I check our trend advisors at Tradestops.com.

The Tradestops analysis shows that gold is in an upwards trend and has been for five months.

There are three main factors we watch at Tradestops.  First we look at the Stock State Indicator (SSI) of the share.  In the case of GLD below, the SSI is in the green zone.

The SSI is based on a mathematical analysis of a share’s price for the past 521 trading days.  An SSI in the green zone indicates that the stock is performing well and has not corrected below its recent high.  If a stock has not yet hit this price, it is still on an uptrend and safe to keep holding it.

gold

Tradestops analysis for the gold ETF symbol GLD.

The Tradestops analysis of SLV shows that this silver ETF is in a downwards trend and has been for the past one year.

An SSI in the red zone indicates that the stock has corrected more than its VQ% below a recent high. The stock is not behaving in a way that is usual based on its historical market trend.

silver

Tradestops analysis for the silver ETF symbol SLV.

This analysis suggests that this is a good time to speculate in gold, but not in silver.

However when the gold-silver price ratio is at 80 or above, history suggests that the price of silver will rise faster than the price of gold.

This means that right now the price of gold is a good value,  but silver may be an even better investment than gold.

The threshold we watch for is a spread of 80. When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history this suggests that silver is undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.

Rarely has the gold-silver price ratio been as high as 80, only three times in the past 36 years.

Last month the ratio shot up to 81!

However the May 21, 2018, 30 Day Gold-Silver Ratio chart from Kitco.com below shows that the gold-silver price ratio dropped back below 80 around May 1, 2018.   The chart shows that silver’s price has been rising faster than gold’s prcie and this is an early indicator that silver’s trend may be ready to reverse.

gold silver ratio

The next indicator we’ll look for is the Tradestops entry alert that shows the silver ETF’s price is on the rise.  Momentum is a key component of Tradestops Stock State Indicator (SSI) system.  The TradeStops Stock State Indicator (SSI) entry signal is a very conservative signal. It requires a stock to have made a bounce off the bottom of at least one Volatility Quotient (VQ) percentage and the stock’s trend must be strongly positive.

That entry signal will be strong suggestion that silver’s price is on the rise.

Good and Bad News When No Cash is Required

The big benefit to an overall portfolio’s return is that any profits created on margin purchases are pure profit that come with with no extra invested money.

Of course there is always something we do not know, and any losses are also pure losses so protective devices are also wise, especially stop losses which are explained in our report “The Silver Dip 2018.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.

You receive the Silver Dip 2018 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course.

Save $141.95

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi). The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2018” free for a total savings of $141.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the initial Purposeful Investing Course and “The Silver Dip 2018” right away, plus start receiving update lessons on a regular basis (Typically six lessons a month).

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep the initial course and “The Silver Dip 2108” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $141.95.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

 

 

 

The Hounds and the Toad


We should value value when we invest!

The hounds and the toads do not.

The goal of investing is to protect and to increase the purchasing power of our money.

Money is important because we live in the imagined orders of democracy and capitalism.  Money is the lubricant that keeps this system going round.

oranges

Fresh made orange marmalade.

Over the weekend Merri and I picked the shiners from our grove (oranges missed by our pickers ) from this year’s navel orange harvest at our Florida grove.  We made up a big batch of orange marmalade.  It’s great stuff (if you like thick, bitter and chunky) better than we can buy in the store or anywhere!

To go to the effort of preserving fruit requires that we trust the future… just as we must when we work for money.

Money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised, but money can only exist if we trust in the future.  That trust (in the future) is a totally unique human idea.

However,  you could never convince our hounds to give up their afternoon meal by promising two meals in the morning.

During the spring, our hounds are often seen standing, frozen in concentration.

dogs

Ma and Chuk stand, not moving, for hours.

The focus of their concentration are small toads that have moved into the pond.

dogs

The dogs stare.  The little toad stares back.

I tell all of them, the hounds and the toad, that they can all find better more productive things to do.  Their lives would be better if they did not waste all that time staring.

They do not listen, because they cannot imagine a future and cannot trust!

Humans can trust the future.  This fact has put us at the top of the food chain. 

Such trust has to be with a caveat though, since there is always something we do not know.

Take those navel oranges as examples.

We were not too bothered about having plenty left over to preserve because the price for our commercial crop was low.

A recent Wall Street Journal article on trade tensions (1) explain why/when it tells how Ford cars and California fruits are among the goods piling up at Chinese ports, the result of increased inspections that business groups say is China’s way of reminding the U.S. how important its market is to American exporters.

The article says:

Navel oranges, lemons and cherries from California, along with American apples, have been sitting at Chinese wharves for longer than normal as Chinese inspectors spend more time inspecting the fruits for pests and decays, U.S. trade groups said.

The Chinese pressure may have worked. This week the US has pulled back from imposing trade tariffs on China.  However, the pull back is too late to help prices for this year’s orange crop.  Who knows what will happen to the demand for apples, cherries and oranges next.

The potential for change is too great for us to trust any one specific future.

This is why we use value as the measure to choose where we invest.

This is why we created our Purposeful Investing system so we can use country ETFs that diversify into the MSCI Indices of the best valued stock markets around the world.

Value is the main consideration in our choices… not current momentum.

For example in April 2018, our value analyst Keppler Asset Management removed Austria from the Good Value BUY list.

We let our Purposeful investing subscribers know.  The chart below from www.finance.yahoo.com shows that this recommendation came at a pretty good time.  Yet timing was not the criteria Keppler used to suggest the change.

yahoo.com

Keppler was looking at value and wrote on April 6, 2018:  There were two changes in our country ratings last quarter:   After its exceptional rise of 43.2 % in the previous fourteen months and an outperformance vs. the MSCI World Index of 36.4 percentage points, Austria was  downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy” at the end of February.

Fundamentals there could not keep pace with the rising stock prices.

At the same time, Spain, with a dividend yield almost twice that of Austria, was upgraded to “Buy” due to superior fundamentals.

After the changes, the Top Value Model Portfolio holds ten “Buy”-rated markets:  Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom — at equal weights. According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performances.

There is always something we do not know, but having diversified our investments equally into the ten best value stock markets in the world, we have a good chance of protecting our wealth regardless of trade wars, the price of oranges and cherries and even if the hounds eat the frogs.

Learn more about value investing below.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: US goods stuck a China ports as tensions heat up

Special Freedoms


Merri and I always celebrate special freedoms in May, but this May is golden and extra special for us. 

This May is unique in our lives because my global investing and business adventures began, five decades ago, when on May 1, 1968 I left the USA and arrived in Hong Kong May 2, 1968.

My first passport.

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Here is my my first passport  and the first stamp issued May 2, 1968, allowing me to stay in Hong Kong until June 2, 1968.

I arrived in Hong Kong in the night, the tropical air so soft it was a velvet mist.  Thick evening scents in the fragrant harbor and mellow insects purring in rhythm with the cacophony of the great city!  What a an exotic adventure.

Kai Tak was Hong Kong’s airport then and being American born and bred, I knew nothing about investing aboard.

I was 21 years old and had no idea how that trip would lead me throughout Asia for almost ten years and onto business and investing in Europe, California, England, Isle of Man, Florida, The Dominican Republic, North Carolina and Ecuador.

In the last 50 years there has been a lot of change in our freedoms, and our goal at this site has been to share ideas that enhance three basic qualities of real freedom.

#1: The first basic quality of real freedom is natural health.  None of us can be truly free until we wrest ourselves from the grip of the expensive, big pharma fueled, health care system.

Good health is the most valuable asset of all.  I know because there are some moments, always remembered.  Peak experiences. Never forgotten spots in our existence that become crossroads that forever dictate the direction of our lives.  Sharing such a memory about good health from 30 years ago, may help you gain more freedom and wealth now.

A low rumble, the crowded city below, muffled through thick foliage and vibrated over the thin ribbon of asphalt that winds, flat as a snake, through the jungle ahead.

Warm fogs swept in from the South China Sea and hung like a humid blanket in the air.

Bowen Road, mid levels, Hong Kong 1973.  This narrow path flows through the middle of a thick boscage that looms above the most crowded city in the world. The green, freshness and cacophony of birds brought us here each morning.  Amahs that stretched on bent iron pipe handrails, ancient wrinkled men carrying caged sparrows and all types of early risers moved like shadows against the verdant forest in their motions of Tai Chi.

Me?

I jogged. 25 years old, this was the day when divorce papers were served and I also learned I was broke.

Working from the age of 21 for a new hot company my stock options made me a paper millionaire at age 24.  This unexpected wealth created bad spending habits and without the sense to sell, this portfolio was nothing but paper that became worthless.  Plus the ambition and my month-at-a-time tours to Asia had ruined my marriage as well.

So that day I stumbled, more than jogged, wondering what would happen now!  Everything seemed gone and for the first mile or so, I was just running and afraid.

The second mile absorbed me.  The self-pity and fright began to fade.  During mile three I began to sweat and the trauma literally evaporated.  Finally by the fourth mile I was taking stock.  My two kids were smart, strong and already used to my being away.  My soon-to-be-ex had the house, two cars, the boat, all the furniture and the 14 apartments we had managed to buy.  They would be okay.

So what about myself?

On the fifth mile I analyzed my position… No cash, no way to pay next month’s rent and no job. I  was thousands of miles from home.  Most of my clients were unhappy campers focusing their anger on the only Guello (foreign devil) who had not fled the city (me).

Yet as one foot plodded in front of the other, there were several things I realized that I did have.  Energy and the ability to work.  I had my good health.

I jogged along thinking about my many wealthy customers who had tons of cash and gobs of assets, but were mostly diseased, exhausted and consequently perpetually afraid.  If anything went wrong in their business, banking or the economy and politics, they were doomed.  They could not build again.  Life for them was just the paper they had already accumulated.  They were always bound up by that because they feared they could never last out tough times or rebuild.  They were trapped by their wealth and rotting lifestyles.

Suddenly over the last five miles I felt extremely rich and free!  That was the moment when I realized the basis of real freedom is good health.  Money can come and go, but if we are physically fit, with stamina and good energy we can always rebuild wealth.

That’s the moment I have never forgotten and over the past 40 + years I have kept a continual watch for new ways to be stronger, more flexible, in better shape and more immune from disease, in my global travels.

This search for health, vitality and longevity is one of the reasons why Merri and I moved to Ecuador and lived with an Andean shaman in a remote Andean hacienda for over a year.

Having lived with the indigenous there, Merri and I learned that good health and longevity come from easy, but special exercises, good nutrition and good sleep so our bodies are fit and strong and our minds clear.

My three reports on natural health secrets shares my decades of experience on how to be healthy in a sick world.  Learn more at Three Health Reports.

#2: The second quality of real freedom is the ability to earn through service.  So many promises, purchasing power of money, savings, pensions, health care, social security, financial security, privacy, have all been broken so many times that no promise made by big business or big government can be trusted.  The only true form of wealth is to have some value, to be able to serve (or produce) in a profitable way.

A multi dimensional micro business brings freedom as it redesigns your lifestyle by bringing profit, fulfillment and  peace of mind, through doing what you love.

The way I maintain freedom and continual lifestyle reinventions is to “Go Try Things”.

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Here I am working in the woods on our North Carolina Farm trying to explain the importance of this phrase “Go try things”… which sums up why you not only can but should gain the benefits of an international business.

In the winter, I work at our Florida home instead.

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I started trying things in Hong Kong 48 years ago.

Then I moved onto Fiji and after a decade found “New Things” living in London.  While conducting London real estate tours, I spotted distortions in the Isle of Man that led to an Isle of Man business.  Years of real estate tours helped me pick up unimaginable profits… because I tried new things.

However Britain’s gray winters soon drove me to the sun.  Merri and I found ourselves in the sun watching sun rays sparkle on the emerald prisms of cool, spring fed pools in Naples Florida and the Dominican Republic where we found more “New Things”.  We conducted Dominican real estate tours but continued to self publish as well.  Then in the process of trying new places and new things, 20 years ago we stumbled onto Ecuador.

We continue to “Go try things”.

Our business has evolved over 50 years from Hong Kong to London to Europe to the Isle of Man to the Dominican Republic to Florida to North Carolina to Ecuador and back to Small Town USA. 

While in London in the 1970s, I wrote my first book, “Passport to International Profit”.

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One chapter in the book was about the “Concept Conversion Trick” and how it creates the “Soil Defense Syndrome”.

Here is an excerpt from that chapter:

“The Concept Conversion Trick begins when people agree on a good concept for working and living together.  The people go to work and if the concept is good they will create a paradise.  The government gives them a flag and a song. Then the government pulls the trick.  The government convinces the people that the flag and song are important.  Then while the people are busy watching the flag and singing the song, the government replaces the concept with a set of ever increasing written rules and regulations administered by bureaucrats and backed up by a police force.

“This trick trades people’s individual freedoms for a shiver up the spine when the song is played the piece of cloth is waved.  The Concept Conversion Trick turns spirit into matter.   Like trading love for a beautiful plastic doll.  When the trick has been pulled and the dust settles, the people realize too late what has happened.  Anyone who steps out of line is called unpatriotic or even criminal.  He is swatted down by the bureaucracy or police force, crushed with overwhelming power or made an example of so others will tow the mark ‘for the good of society’.  All this is done in the name of public interest.”

If this writing sounds prophetic having been written over 40 years ago, it was not.  A simple review of any previous great society shows that this trick was part of its evolution.  Like the Roman Empire, things may get better for a while, then worse and then better again.  In the long term, as societies age, they lose their original vibrancy and life.

That book began my self publishing career because I was fascinated by how societies differ, yet are so much the same.

This is how our business continued to evolve, trying things of interest and fascination to us.  Not once did business turn out as we expected… but always there was some success… happy customers…. good deeds…. great service… profit… fulfillment and adventure all originating from just trying new things or doing old things in new ways.

We live in a fortunate era.  Throughout most of history, life expectancy and requirements of work meant that the most experienced sector of the work force was no longer physically able to continue.  In our high tech environment we have a chance to create their most important pinnacle career at a time when previously we would have retired.  This is the first time in mankind’s history when the value of our experience is worth more than the cost of getting it.

Today we have a global income with a self publishing micro-business with readers around the world, but run from our current homes in Smalltown USA.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire with a farm in North Carolina, orange groves and home in Florida.

Learn more about how you can gain freedom and a better life when you “Go Try Things” here.

#3: The third quality of real freedom is to have a mathematically based financial information system that repeatedly reveals a diversified selection of good multi currency investment values.

I developed the international investing course Purposeful investing” (Pi) to share ways to reduce stress, add safety and increase profit.  This course is based on my fifty years of global investing experience and aims at creating restful rather than restless wealth.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

A golden rule of investing is “there is always something we do not know”.  Investment ideas might have some connection to truth, but never contain the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  Every investment is based on approximation.  Investments rise and fall in value, at least temporarily. The fluctuations create  stress, worry and fear, three of an investors’ worst enemies.  These emotions cause the “Behavior Gap”, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

The “Purposeful investing” course helps learn how to avoid the Behavior Gap by creating easy to use, low stress, safe, profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal profit goals.

Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of the Primary Pi Model Portfolio.  The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of  Michael Keppler.

Our analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

From this research, Keppler develops his Good Value Stock Market Country Selection Strategies.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisers.

The Pifolio uses Keppler’s Country Selection Strategy to construct a diversified, risk-controlled, portfolio that invests in Keppler’s BUY rated stock markets.  The portfolio gives equal weighting to each BUY market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but is a share normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

The portfolio does not contain any individual stocks because country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.

The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  The Pifolio is simply  a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  Investing in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The original Pifolio began with 70% diversified into the following good value developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio was invested in Keppler’s Good Value Emerging Markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Thailand.

To understand this ideas’ performance in real time, we invested $80,000 ($40,000 at a bank and $40,000 at a low cost online broker) to watch performance in real time.

The Pifolio is up 27.1% since we began…. almost exactly equal to the S&P 500.

Here is a chart from the low cost online broker Motif, showing the performance of the $40,0000 there.

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There are three huge benefits in the portfolio.  First, there have been only two trades in almost three years.  This portfolio is easy and keeps trading costs down.

Second, this portfolio has matched the S&P 500 bt has a huge cost to book and PE advantage that gives it far more potential than the S&P.  Plus the portfolio is entirely in no dollar denominated markets.  The portfolio will gain a forex rise as the US dollar falls.

Third, this portfolio is diversified in 21 stock markets markets instead of one market.

Learn more about this type of value investing at Protect Your Savings and Wealth from Mistakes

Statistics suggest that at age 71, I won’t be serving you for another 50 years, but I am shooting for a diamond anniversary message so look forward to looking for ways to make your life better with interesting, usable ideas over the next 24 years.

Gary

Live Well and Be Free – 5 Global Earning Experiences

Here are 5 global income experiences and 7 business secrets that can help you live well and free anywhere.

I began my international business 50 years ago and have been creating and running international micro businesses since.

During that time my wife, Merri, and I have been able to live, work and earn all over the world… literally anywhere we wanted because of seven secrets we gained which we share here with you.  We have been blessed with global earning experiences that helped us make millions… but were also fun, such as with British Lordships.   See how one micro business helped us rub elbows with British Royalty below.

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One of Merri’s businesses that worked with British Royalty was featured in Doonesbury.

Global Earning Experience #1:  Lepers.  Our micro businesses have been fulfilling.  Merri started her international business in her 20s (long before she knew me) importing Italian clocks to the USA.  This earned so much ($80,000 in the first year) that she created other micro businesses helping orphans in the Yucatan and Haitian lepers (at the Albert Schweitzer Hospital) produce crafts she sold for them in the USA.

Excellent income ($80,000 in the 1970s was a lot of cash)…  incredible contacts… working with Dr. Larimer and Gwen Mellon who created the Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Haiti… and enormous satisfaction.  Merri still cries over 40 years later when she tries to speak of the gratitude of the lepers and her time and life in Haiti.

Plus she gained lessons that allowed her to live and earn… in many places and many ways.

Then we got together.

Global Earning Experience #2:  Lords.  Another of Merri’s ideas (in the mid 1980s) was to broker British titles to wealthy Americans.  We made a ton from that… even gained 15 minutes of fame when Gary Trudeau learned about this business and immortalized it by having B.D. Zonker buy a title!

What fun… profitable, plus stimulating, meeting and working with the Blue Bloods of Britain… visiting their castles… invited to their events and affairs.

Before I get ahead of myself, may I ask you a question?

Would you like to have a lifestyle and a front yard like this… almost a thousand acres of hacienda overlooking the Andes?

Would you enjoy living in two, three or even more places wherever and whenever you choose?  Would you be happier with more freedom, lack of debt, and a life of riches, adventure and travel?  Would you be glad to feel confident that you can discover interesting and fun business ideas again and again that not only bring in extra income but also help the poor and improve the environment?

If so then read on… because… that front yard above is ours in a remote Andean hacienda.  This is only one of several homes that we have gained (to live and use in business) from the secrets we’ll share below.

In the summer, we retreat to our 250+ acre farm high in the Blue Ridge mountains of North Carolina.  Here’s our front yard in these mountains and the view from my home office.

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Home offices in all your homes are important by the way.  They are part of one global micro business secret and you’ll see why have two home offices (and using two cars in business) can save thousands in taxes.

When you have an international micro business that involves your home and car, the tax benefits are fantastic.

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A group of readers visiting our North Carolina home after learning how to gain freedom with a micro business.

You can also enjoy such a lifestyle because after years of search, I found business secrets that you can use and enjoy.

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Waterfall at our North Carolina Farm.  See enjoyable benefits of a micro business in water.

Global Earning Experience #3: Hospitality.  Here’s a hotel we owned and operated in Ecuador.  Once we sold this we joined the sharing economy and began offering rentals in our North Carolina cabins through AIRBNB and houses in Florida.  We became designated super hosts within months and are adding thousands of extra dollars to our income every month.  If you want to provide genuine care and hospitality you can be anywhere and beat out big businesses in your niche because big business has created an uncaring world and everyone craves care.

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Having a variety of places to live is part of one of the secrets on how to earn more, have a better life with more fun, adventure and greater freedom.

Global Earning Experience #4:  Import-Export.   Here I am at our Florida house showing clients how to import.

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I was wearing a hand tailored, made to order, high quality wool suit from Ecuador that could be imported into the US for as little as $135 .  Plus that Panama hat was made in Ecuador.  This is odd but true, all genuine Panama hats are made in Ecuador.  We import Ecuador roses year round as well, all from one of our tax deductible US home office.

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The secrets we’ll share below are not about how to buy suits or flowers though.  The secrets show ways to make money (while helping others) marketing products and services wherever you are and much more…. globally.

Global Earning Experience #5:  Green Produce.   We have an orange grove and lake at our Florida home and

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are among the first to test new organic ways to make citrus farming better for the environment and the consumer.  In North Carolina we cultivate Wild American Ginseng as well as aquafarm.

These are just a few of the business experiences that can help you have the freedom to earn globally.  They are shared in our emailed correspondence course, International Business Made EZ.   This course helps you learn how to earn and live wherever you choose!

The course teaches a system based on seven secrets so powerful that it creates money for you regardless of where you are:  in town, out of the country, traveling or even in places as remote as we live.

These secrets have worked for us in real estate… titles… tours… agriculture… clothing… hospitality… alternative health…  spirituality… printing… publishing and art businesses for Merri and me all over the world.

I searched for these elusive secrets of opportunity for over twenty years, looking for a way to gain incredible, outlandish, unbelievable profit potential.

I finally found them and after years of proof and would like to share with you.  The opportunity I sought had to be enormously profitable yet also safe.  It had to work in good times and bad and had to be flexible so it could evolve as times changed.

These were not the only standards.  I wanted to find unbelievable profit and high safety and freedom but also wanted this incredible investment to offer the ultimate tax shelter, something so perfect it would not be even a little bit questionable.  It had to be so tax foolproof that Congress would never change it. 

I wanted a tax shelter so good that it would be encouraged by the government.

I feared deep down inside that what I wanted was impossible.  Nevertheless, I scoured the world for over twenty years looking for it.  I looked in Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.  But I didn’t find it in Asia.  I went to the Middle East and searched all over Europe… all across the USA and Latin America.  I hardly missed a country.  After twenty years and millions of miles, I guess I gave up.  Only then (as these things so often happen) was it that I found the best opportunity in the world.

This opportunity was not only perfect but I discovered that it was wherever I wanted it to be, in my own back yard, in Florida and our remote home in the High Country of North Carolina and our even more remote cloud forest home in Ecuador.

Merri and I have created a special program we call “Live Well and Free Anywhere” that makes it possible for you to enjoy extra income doing something you love.  You can gain full or part time and enjoy excellent profits as you have fun and do something good in the world.

My search stumbled on the fact that most millionaires make their money in business.  This discovery led to a study of rich businesses, ones that generate everlasting wealth.  Here are five of seven secrets we learned and have used in our  micro businesses:

Secret #1: They must enjoy the multiple effect.  A product once created must produce profits again and again, almost on a never-ending basis.  Each investment made needs to make huge returns.

Secret #2: They need to be greater than their owner’s time.  They must produce income even when the owner doesn’t put in day-to-day effort. You may already be wealthy or earning a high income.  You may not even need another business or extra income, but some day you might.  One surgeon explained it this way.  “I am making a fortune because peoples’ lives are in my hands.  Once my hands are no longer steady, my income stops.   My entire financial well being will then be in someone else’s hands!”

Secret #3: These money making systems should be enjoyable and fun.  Sadly most people make money for the sake of making money.  Many spend their lives working, just to have a few precious hours having fun.  The most important fact about making and keeping wealth is that those who were richest absolutely love what they were doing.  Money is of secondary importance to their effort.  And as things are, this means they actually ended up making more money.

Secret #4: These money making systems need to be flexible.  No matter what the economy brings, your ability to make money should work regardless of inflation, recession or even depression.

Secret #5: These businesses usually start small, but grow quite large.  Good money systems work for large or for small amounts and can be operated on either a full or part time basis.  Most businesses start with a learning curve.  During that time it is essential they are small.  Once the lessons have been learned and the system is operating properly, then it needs to grow for larger and larger returns.

These secrets created a fantastic way to make money with my own international micro business doing what I love!

You too can have everlasting wealth by turning your passion into profit.

Before discovering these secrets I had a business but to be honest could never get ahead.  I was almost penniless, in debt and living from month to month, check to check.  Then I discovered these seven secrets…and how to apply them around the world.

Since then our international micro businesses have brought in millions.  We gained all the physical possessions we desired, plus more than enough money in the bank.

We do not have one penny of debt and we have leisure time… though when you love your business… why not work?

This is most important, we have fun and feel that we do something beyond just making money every day!  Merri and I do what we love and have learned that through our global business we can accomplish far more important goals, gain self fulfillment and be of service to our community.  In short we can help make ourselves and the world better.

Among our greatest thrills is being able to help others through foundations we have started that help the environment and the poor.

More importantly we have the freedom to do all this from many locations (some are remote-you have seen the pictures) that we really enjoy.

You too can have the freedom to do what you love from any place you like, even operating (actually preferably) from your bedroom, dining room or den if you wish.

What do you love? Rare cars?  You can make a fortune creating a business around them.  Do you prefer fine art? Or do you love beautiful jewelry, coins, gems, real estate, furs, model railways, dolls, scientific equipment, war memorabilia, old and rare books, or whatever?  Do you prefer social subjects rather than objects?

Are you concerned with the environment or humanitarian problems, with crimes, war or poverty?  Would you like to help wipe these social problems out in the course of your business?

Are you a golfer? Do you love to travel? Why not make all kinds of money in a global business related to golf?

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place, help people get along better together?  You can do something good for the world, increase your income and live wherever you please in the process!

Whatever your passion you can learn how to earn by creating an international micro business based on it.  You can be international if you love to travel or not.  Regardless of your skills and position there is some approach that will work for you.

Take fishing, for example.

I am no great aquafarmer, but the numbers and lifestyle work on a small scale.  We pay about $3.50 a pound to stock the fish, they double, triple, even quadruple in size and we sell them at a local butcher shoppe for a modest profit.   This is not a big deal, but does generate income, helps attract guests to stay in our rental cabins, puts some great trout dinners on our table and is a thoroughly enjoyable part of my daily labor.  I need this to counter balance sitting in front of a computer.

Over a couple of months the fish grow… a lot.

gary scott

We are lucky to have a perfect but natural place to raise the trout.  On busy holidays when our monster trout are in demand I have to work hard fishing at that pond.  Pity me!

merrily farms

This pond is just below our house, so raising the trout is EZ for me.

Millions of people love fishing but don’t have a pond.  This does not mean they cannot be involved in fishing.  Here are just a few of many ways that others have profitably matched this passion with profit.

Two of my friends, John and Lou, grew up near me in the Oregon mountains.  They were outdoor adventure types and moved to Canada, where they homesteaded 1,200 acres on a trout-filled lake in mid British Columbia.  They built a fishing camp that attracts fisherman from around the world.

Duncan Kinderman on the other hand loved fishing and castles.  He bought a castle on the River Tay, a great Scottish salmon river, and offered time shares for fisherman from Britain, Europe and the US.

Another entrepreneur I know was from Montana.  His skills were in marketing so he sold fishing trips for fishing camps.  He attended rod and gun exhibitions, met owners of these camps and arranged to sell their fishing trips to the US, Argentina and even in Russia to fisherman around the world.

Ralph Kylloe on the other hand loved fishing and photography so he created the book, “Fishing Camps”, which was published by Gibbs Smith publisher. This allowed Ralph to travel across the country enjoying fishing camps as he photographed and wrote.

Steve Ambrose, another friend of ours, had family commitments at home so he set up a bass fishing business in Florida that served Americans, Germans, Canadian, Dutch and Belgians.  Later as his children grew, he used his client base to arrange fishing trips in Argentina.

Each of these people had provincial backgrounds and differed in age, situation and skills.  Their common link, the love of fishing, led each to a global micro business.  Each was able to blend a unique nature and set of skills to develop a global business that surrounded them with fun, like minded fishing souls.

Also, imagine what an international business means to your world travel.  Every trip you take can be tax deductible!  You can honestly write off every trip that is related to your business.  Every journey becomes a research oriented adventure and a TAX DEDUCTIBLE EVENT. 

For example if you have your own business you can gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business because  IRS Form 4562, which is filed by proprietorships and corporations, contains spaces for up to six vehicles.

There are similar benefits by having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587.

These are huge tax benefits that can be gained when you have an international, at home,  micro business.

As a real international business person, you’ll have one of the most respected and tax protected businesses in the country.  Every country needs to do business abroad, and most governments have created many programs to encourage their citizens to do business overseas.  Many of those benefits come in the form of reduced tax.  Other benefits come in the form of legal protection and even subsidies and grants.

There is such an abundance of opportunity that Merri and I have created this program to help you have your own international micro business that can be managed almost anywhere.  This program is unique because Merri and I are unique.  We started our global business together.  Since we’re almost recluses, we decided to do the whole business by ourselves… thus we create micro businesses that do not require large staffs.

We began working at home.  Today, though we have tens of thousands of buyers and have made millions, we still work at home on our remote farms and employ only a few people to help.

You can do the same with a system contained in an electronic correspondence course called International Business Made EZ.   The course reveals all you need to know about how to start and run your own global business all by yourself.  It answers your questions and gets your business started!

Thousands have profited from this course which has been updated in its fifth edition.

For example, Ben, an investor from Pennsylvania used International Business Made EZ and wrote:

“Jam packed with vital information.  My head is spinning. Thank goodness this is all backed up by your manual. This is a true and cherished gift. Your tips on low cost business are a blessing!  Thank you once again for an outstanding course.  The value far exceeds the price.”

In just a week, you can be well on your way to income and freedom to live wherever you choose!  International Business Made EZ shows you how to take advantage of the five secrets mentioned above and the remaining two secrets below:

Secret #6: Look for ways to gain 1,000% returns in business.  The wealthiest families in the world today come from global businesses.  Learn how margins can be so incredible that few would believe them.  Learn how to use stories to make huge shifts in the value of products.  Take for example our friend Earl who is a dog trainer.  On a trip to Ecuador clay whistles in the market place were for sale at .35 cents each.  By calling them dog whistles Earl was able to sell them at $9.95,  a whopping 2,700% mark up!

Secret #7:  Create and market your product everywhere using niche marketing.  There are 11 steps to create the perfect product.  You learn them with International Business Made EZ.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets.  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to provide your marketing material for you almost FREE.

Learning how to market is the key to successful business. Knowing how to turn pennies into dollars is good marketing focus. International Business Made EZ gives you this winning marketing knowledge.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  You’ll learn how to create your own ads and when to use the internet… search engines… pay per click… classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth… even flea markets and roadside stands in some cases.

See how to build a PR list and social business network on the World Wide Web to gain thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I even share my most secret results on my marketing so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a product at $49 instead of $29.

Learn how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and received free trips all over the world.

Learn how we have made money over the Internet (specific details, specific experiences, hard earned knowledge over the last 13 years!)  With an inexpensive computer you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over – even if you are computer challenged.  Merri and I have certainly proven this.  We were one of the first to run a successful website and still rank high today even with millions of competitors.  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach.

Merri and I with our webmaster, David Cross, were leaders in beginning internet micros businesses and have sold millions over the web.  You gain ways to earn global income over the net from that experience as well.

At www.garyascott.com our emailed messages are regularly sent to over 20,000 readers.

You learn the income producing power of defined focus and immediate repetition to get good search engine rankings and sales.

You can earn successfully while living anywhere because people of all ages are doing this.  Technology wiped out any disadvantages of age and gender.  A USA Today article entitled “The new entrepreneurs: Americans over 50” explains that older business people often start one person ventures in home offices using technology that did not exist a few years ago.  The article gave an example of Franny Martin who launched a cookie company at age 56 and said she built revenues to over $500,000 a year.   Yet her web site which attracts cookie customers from around the world cost only $3,000 to build.

International Business Made EZ is arranged in an easy to understand style.  Everything is explained in vivid detail.  We share all, how we have done it ourselves.  The course is full of business ideas and case studies based on our 48 years of experience.

The course  describes on a step-by-step basis, how Merri and I built a multi-million dollar international micro business in just 7 years and how you can do the same.

Terry T., an attorney from Germany took the course and enjoyed this fact when he stated, “What I like most is that it is a nuts and bolts course-not pie in the sky.

Learn How to Gain Total Security.  Learn how and why the global economy makes employment riskier because change is no longer an option.  See ways to become and agent of and profiteer from change never a victim of change.

Learn How to Perfect a Lifestyle.  Living as you choose is important because life is short.  Fortunately matching what you love with what you do in business actually increases profits.

George K an MD from California confirmed this when he wrote:

Your course helped me to crystallize and clarify ideas I’ve been considering that relate to my interests in writing, travel and ecology.  They showed ways to combine them in a personally engaging and potentially profitable way.  I especially appreciated the practical advice on organizing and marketing-turning ideas into products that sell and make a profit.”

A retired railway executive from Michigan picked up on this aspect and said more.

“Your course opened my eyes to the merits, profits, and prestige of becoming an international businessman, particularly the idea of doing business in Canada for distribution in the U.S. (for total tax protection).”

Learn How to Market your Product.  Learn truths that rule the market place.  Gain knowledge on subjects like… How to Make the Truth Exciting. Create your own Sales Story…  How to Deal With Cultural Differences…  How to Build Global Lists and Use International PR…  How to Spot the National Psyche and Quadruple Profits With Multimedia Marketing…  How to Choose Businesses as Pioneers or as Settlers.

Tom K., an engineer from Ohio, cashed in on this idea and wrote, “Basically, I learned the selling and marketing implications.  The course is absolutely worth the price!”

Learn  How to Obtain What You Need from the Net.  How to Use the Web to Reach your Market.  How to develop your site, target your market and start getting visits. The top ten Internet tips to use, the top ten traps to avoid, and many other lessons our Webmaster has used in his many years on the net. This system is so simple anyone can use it.

“Thank you for taking the mystery out of business and bringing it down to the ham and eggs level.” L – Chiropractor – Oklahoma”

Learn the Importance of Business Evolution.  It is vital to success and fulfillment that your business has balance and grows in harmony.

Rachel B, a housewife from Washington, enjoyed learning this fact and told us, “The idea of starting at the lowest cost level was terrific.”

Learn How to Set up Your Banking Structure.   Learn all you’ll need about the financial end: How to control inventory, keep overheads down, check ad results and stay on top of your business.  Learn 11 hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

International Business Made EZ contains all these secrets and more.

One delegate, Ted T. a publisher from California said:

“Your course is outstanding! Just two hours of study alone were worth more than the price.”

While Kelly, a business woman from Atlanta, explained:

“It was great going through your steps, being 100% honest without fear of giving trade secrets since you have paid the price (to gain this knowledge).”

Who is helped by International Business Made EZ?

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international micro business for fun and profit.

Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit.  Those who want more control over their career can profit.  Plus those who love global travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Your tax savings in a year can be worth ten, twenty even 100 times the cost of International Business Made EZ.

Even older entrepreneurs are taking advantage of technology.  One of our friends and clients, Mickey E., was a 72 year old real estate broker, when she began a small global business.  With just a computer and internet, she created publications that attracted English real estate buyers.  This allowed her to become a top sales person in the biggest real estate firm (selling over a billion dollars of real estate a year) in town.  She later used the tactics she learned to move to Ecuador (in here late 70s) and start a micro business there.

If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time international micro business, or want to build your existing business, you can profit by International Business Made EZ.

This course is also for couples who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.

This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

An employed couple from New York wrote, “We found the course interesting and informative.  We were inspired to start work on an international project.  When we came down, we had no idea on what to do.”

There is nowhere else to gain such a unique network of information and help.  We have a successful international business with over 20,000 readers in dozens of countries so you gain practical current business contacts that are active now.

Are you interested in a global micro business?  It can be small and part time mainly to gain prestige, fun and tax benefits.  It can be full fledged and rake in thousands a day.  If so, International Business Made EZ is an absolute bargain.  Our goal and guarantee is that you will be able to start and run your own global micro business.

If you are not fully satisfied in any way,  just tell us within 60 days and we’ll send you a 100% full refund with no questions asked.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through an International Business.

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Your Friend,

Gary Scott

Others who have used thus course wrote:

“The course gave me insight on what to do with widening my client base.” M – Real Estate Broker – Florida

“The course helped me in several ways. #1: To realize that it is not only OK but preferable to start small. #2: I feel I have a workable program to have my own newsletter-my own passion!” T B – Professional, Washington

“The course fulfilled all my expectations providing all the details necessary to start a business from creating the idea, through marketing including the systems necessary to implement our ideas.” B C – Chiropractor – California

“The first thing that strikes you when you start this course is how quickly and simply Gary cuts through many of the common misunderstandings about doing business internationally.  In fact anyone with even a small local business could learn a wealth of practical marketing and sales strategies and tips through International Business Made EZ.”

More Comments from Readers

“I completed International Business Made EZ in a (long!) weekend and – unlike many business books and courses – I didn’t fall asleep whilst reading it! I found it helpful to refer back to whilst I put my business ideas into action and the business and banking contacts in the course were worth their weight in gold.”

“There is a lot of rubbish written about business and ‘get rich quick schemes’ and I seem to receive some sort of junk mail or spam e-mail most days trying to sell me a ‘get rich quick’ idea, but I found Gary’s course genuinely different.”

“Firstly, the International Business Made EZ course is written by someone who has tried and proven his international business and then chose to share those practical examples in a course rather than as ‘pie-in-the-sky theory’. Secondly, although the course would show even hard-nosed, skeptical business people a few things about doing business internationally, it is written in a completely unassuming and open way and this makes it easy for anyone to gain maximum benefit in the minimum amount of time from the course.”

This electronic “International Business Made EZ” costs $299. You gain incredible education and the importance of the knowledge for you and your family’s wealth.

The course is so complete Merri and I extend our “no fooling around-complete satisfaction guarantee” and a special offer because “International Business Made EZ” is only one small part of the special program we have developed for you.

Here is the first part of the special offer.  We provide two emailed courses… “International Business Made EZ”,  and “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

Merri and I use writing and self publishing in our business.  We have earned as much as $20,000 for a single day’s work… and have earned consistently year in and year out… while we do what we love… because of a few secrets.  We write to be self fulfilled… to share what we have gained from living, working, investing and writing all over the world.

We wanted to share these secrets so we created a Self Publishing “Writer’s Camp” weekend seminar.  We offered the course for $1,500 and were surprised when 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.  Those who attended love the seminar.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity.  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in the “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for each course (and $299 for the recorded workshop).   We’ll send both courses and the recorded Writer’s Camp to you by email for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

Does that sound fair enough?

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Well actually you save more than $598.  You also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

You can learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business and Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

Fair enough?

There is still more.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive the Report, “How to Finance a Small Business Overseas” (no extra fee).

Merri and I have always preferred to start our micro businesses  through cash flow.  However in the early the days of our business I found myself raising extra capital several times.  I have also helped numerous businesses raise money to get started.  This report shares several experiences to give a thumbnail sketch of how to raise money abroad.

In addition you receive any updates we make on any of these courses reports or recordings, free for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

Finally a conclusion.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund . 

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299. Click Here.

 

 

Graphic Wealth Prediction


This chart on asset allocation is the oldest graph I have ever used!

Originally, decades ago, it was a slide for overhead projectors.  Later it became digital for Power Point.  Thousands of delegates have seen it at my global investing seminars and courses.  I have published it in numerous messages at this site over the past 20 years.

The chart’s longevity comes because it reveals a vital truth we should never ignore.

Most investors do ignore this truth…some at their peril.

Don’t.  You’ll be at risk, because the pros are acting on the facts behind this graph now.  See what this can mean to your investments now.

economic cycles

This chart shares an almost absolute truth…”The best times in the economy, are the worst time to invest in shares.”

Equity investors should watch out for:

  • Rising Inflation
  • Rising Short Interest Rates
  • Rising Bond Yields
  • Falling Unemployment
  • Expanding PE Multiples

Asset allocation moves in ways that seem almost upside down.  Yet there is logic in the cycle.  When the economy is robust,  money is flowing-everyone wants to join in the party.  The market is ruled by greed.  Demand for shares increases.  As demand soars….value falls.

During an economic downturn, money is tight.  The market can be ruled by fear.  Demand for shares decreases.  As demand drops….value soars.

Now is the best of times for the economy.  This is the worst of times for equities.

This truth reveals the fact that we are at a place in the economic cycle where it’s best to build up cash.

The Wall Street Journal article: “Investors, Worried About the End of Goldilocks Market, Pare Back Riskier Bets” (1),  shows that professional investors recognize this and are reacting now.

The article says (bold is mine):  “Investors reassess their risk tolerance amid bouts of market volatility and signs of rising inflation.”

Nine years into a roaring stock bull market, fund managers are paying their last respects to Goldilocks.

Investors broadly remain bullish on stocks and other investments, aided by an upbeat U.S. Jobs Report on Friday. But repeated bouts of market volatility in 2018, and signs of a pickup in inflation have forced them for the first time in several years to reassess their tolerance for risk.  For many, that means boosting cash positions, slashing equity or diversifying portfolios.

At GAM, (Golden Asset Management), which manages 163 billion dollars, the team is moving money into long-short strategies.  These can bet both on rising as well as falling assets, and areas like emerging-market debt to reduce correlations within their portfolios.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch’s most recent fund-manager survey, showed a record monthly climb in the percentage of fund managers taking out protection against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next three months.

For nearly a decade, Swiss private bank, Julius Baer Group , which manages $410 billion, had broadly followed the classic 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, focusing on growth-biased stocks.  That ratio offers a higher allocation to stocks but still a healthy dose of bonds, which typically offer lower but more stable returns.  “Now, we’re at an inflection point. Buy and hold won’t work anymore,” said Yves Bonzon, the group’s chief investment officer.  Mr. Bonzon is also reducing allocations to stocks and holding more cash.

“It was frustrating [last year] when everything was only going up. I thought, why would clients talk to us?” said Mr. Stein, whose firm manages $449 billion. “But now these strategies make more sense, when there are bigger disconnects in markets.”

Others are taking a different approach. For the first time in years, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab , which manages $2.9 trillion in client assets, said he has been urging his U.S. clients to diversify their portfolios internationally in order to reduce risk.

Shortly after February’s correction, Mr. Kleintop said he went on a series of meetings from California to Kentucky prepared to reassure clients that the bull market wasn’t over yet and that stocks could still do well, albeit in a more volatile climate.

To his surprise, “They were all very confident, ready to buy the dip,” he said. “It does get you worried—it’s a sign we’re late in the cycle.”

chart

The pros get it!  This is why in the long run professional investors win… emotional amateurs can lose.

Mr. Kleintop gets it!  When most investors are confident, it is late in the cycle.

Mr. Stein gets it.  When clients won’t listen and won’t talk to the pros because everything is rising… it is late in the cycle.

Another Wall Street Journal article “After Nine Years, How Long Can This Bull Live?” (2) enforces this warning when it says (bolds are mine):

Long periods of calm lead investors and companies to make silly assumptions, leaving them dangerously exposed to shifts in fundamentals.  With the economy now appearing to be in the last phase of the cycle, in which the Fed starts worrying about too much growth rather than too little, some of the easy assumptions of recent years are starting to be challenged—and could threaten the most popular stocks.

For nine years U.S. investors have had easy money, higher profit margins and—mostly—rising valuations, even as the economy had its slowest recovery since World War II.  Wall Street won, while Main Street suffered.

Now Main Street is finally starting to do better.  Jobs are plentiful, unemployment is low, wages just might, perhaps, be picking up, and the bond market is once again priced for inflation rising to the Fed’s 2% target over the next two years.

Main Street’s gain could be Wall Street’s pain. 

The stock market isn’t prepared, because it has been transformed in the past nine years.  When the S&P bottomed in March 2009, the top five constituents were Exxon, Procter & Gamble , Johnson & Johnson , AT&T and Chevron , then offering an average dividend yield of 4.2%.  Investors wanted boring, predictable companies giving them money back immediately, not hopes of a dividend some time in the distant future.

Those companies have been swept away, with their total value now just 6% of the market, down from 14%.  Instead, the market is dominated by Apple, Microsoft , Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook, yielding 0.65% and making up the same share of market capitalization that the old-school top five did at the market trough. Investors dream of disruptive long-term growth and are willing to wait for their rewards—as should be expected when bond yields are low.

As the story switches to rising yields, the shunned higher-yielding stocks offering immediate reward should come back into favor. Technology and other high-growth, high-margin, high-capital-spending stocks should be less appealing because growth will be available from cheaper stocks, too. The assumptions many investors cling to are that money will stay easy, inflation will stay low and workers will be happy to accept what they’re given—so watch out if those are proven wrong.

When markets are rising most investors are smarter than the pros… until they are not.

Successful, long term investing strategies must include two tactics.  The first tactic is a repeatable selection of value during upticks.  The second tactic is protection during downfalls.   The really professional investors rarely do as well as amateurs in rising markets.  These pros mostly win long term because they known when to shift to the second safety tactic.

The long term graphic in this message shows that investing logic is upside down.  Good times are bad for shares and vice versa.  We are in good economic times, so shift from the story of “Goldilocks” to “Alice in Wonderland”.  Jump down the rabbit hole!

You’ll gain safety if you do.

Gary

Yesterday we sent our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) subscribers the annual 36 page “Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Publication”.

This year’s publication includes a 15 page Value vs. Growth comparison for the All Country World Index.  See how US value shares outperformed US growth shares by 6.16% over 90 years.

chart

See how to subscribe to Pi below.

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: Investors worried about end of goldilocks market pare back riskier bets

(2) www.wsj.com:  After nine years how long can this bull live

How to Speculate in Value


The text below is an excerpt from one of last week’s updates sent to subscribers of our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).

Here is a way to speculate in value.  Increase weighting of good value markets based on economic fundamentals.

I’ll explain a specific example… and special current opportunity in a moment.  First let’s look at last week’s global equity dip.

Financial headlines  two weeks ago read like this:

“With looks of shock and despair, traders reacted after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 1,0000 points, or 4 percent, minutes before the closing bell on February 5, 2018.”

Ten days later the tone had changed… to this.  “Dow, S&P 500 book 6th straight gain as stocks post best week in years. The drop marks the biggest points drop since the 2008 recession.

The recent stock market drawback and immediate recovery shows why purposeful investing makes so much good sense.  This sudden volatility led nowhere for traders, except to increased fees and lost opportunity.

Those who used math based value and trend analysis hardly saw a blip.  Pi investors didn’t spend a penny dumping shares that they either had to buy back… or give up profit on when share prices recovered.

For example the Keppler Good Value Developed Market Pifolio saw seven of its ten country ETFs obtain a yellow Stock State Indicator alert from Tradestops.com at the very bottom of the stock market dip.

Not one of these alerts turned into a sell signal.

tradestops

Now, just a week later, all ten shares in this Pifolio have green Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com

share chart

This is also true of the Keppler Good Value Emerging Market Pifolio.

For investors who held these Pifolios… nothing statistically happened.

Nada.

No extra trading fees.

No guessing or fingernails chewed.

Just additional steady profits.

Instead of trying to second guess the impossible-to-know, Pi investors remained steady.

They could be calm… take a nap even.

Or Pi investors could devote more time to life, family and friends and the business of making money with something that’s more enjoyable, better for society and easier to predict than the short term ups and downs of shares.

There you have it… Pi investing is better.

But… we all have a bit of gambler within… don’t we.  So here is a better way to speculate…. by shifting the weighting of value.

ENR Asset Manager’s February 2018 Advisory Extra Bulletin shows us how because France may offer extra value in the years ahead.

The bulletin says:  Big Tax Cuts Attract Foreign Investment and Spur French GDP

Bullish on the Macron Revolution

France is back.

France’s reputation for smothering bureaucracy in addition to high taxes, and a labor code that’s not business friendly, has made it hard for the country to attract foreign investment and talent.  The previous government of Franҫois Hollande was a disappointment for France.  A massive 75% surtax was levied on the wealthy, businesses moved out of the country and labor unrest simmered.  The country struggled to grow its economy while other members of the euro-zone clawed their way out of the eurozone debt crisis starting in 2010.

Then a young Emmanuel Macron was elected last spring, defeating the French far right and resulting in one of the biggest rallies on record for the Paris CAC-40 Index.

Since his election in May 2017, the former investment banker has already pushed through labor law reforms that mak it easier for businesses to fire workers.  He has also sharply cut wealth and capital gains taxes.  He’s capitalizing on high confidence in Europe and uncertainty over Brexit to lure companies to France. Macron is seen as a keen globalist and proponent of free trade and during his recent trip to China, emphasized the need for reciprocal open trade
agreements when meeting President Xi Jinping.

“France has all the assets to succeed. It has top engineers, great entrepreneurs, one of the best education systems in the world, great infrastructure, and successful global companies,” wrote Google CEO Sundar Pichai in a recent blog.

Thirty-eight thousand engineers graduate in France every year. The country is also home to more than 9,400 start-ups and the world’s largest start-up incubator, Station F, which opened in Paris in June.

Macron is “perceived as a pro-business president”, said the Bain report. American investors see this political change as a sign of a major transformation in France, the start of “a French New Deal.”

Venture capital investment increased to more than €2.2 billion in 2016, putting France second only to the UK on the European start-up scene. France took the lead in the first eight months of 2017 raising €2.7 billion–nine times more than for the full year of 2014.

The basis of a speculation in France is that it is already one of the ten good value developed markets according to Keppler Asset Management’s analysis.

share chart

We can compare its financial basics to the entire top value portfolio.

Price to book of the ten markets is 1.58.  The data below from Keppler’s January 2018 analysis shows that France’s market has a price to book of  1.62 (bottom left column in chart below).

Price to earnings of the average of all the Top Value markets is 18.2 compared to 18.9 for France.  Dividend yields at  3.08 and 3.1 for France are also almost the same.

share chart

From page 28 of the 82 page January 2018 Keppler Good Value Developed  Market Analysis we sent you last month.

These numbers suggest that we do not give up any value to shift emphasis towards France.

How to Invest in France

The simplest way to increase profit potential in France is with the country ETF iShares MSCI France.

A look at the 22 year chart at www.finance.yahoo.com shows how this ETF (dark blue line) outperformed the S&% 500 (dark blue) in the run up  of the 2003 to 2007 bull market.  Yet we can see that France has lagged far behind the US since 2012.

share chart

We can also see from Tradestops.com that this low risk (13.6 VQ) ETF has a green Stock State Indicator and in the $32 range  is about 10% above its $27.92 stop price.

share chart

Eric Roseman CEO of ENR Asset Management has a different idea for investors who want to do a bit more work and take added risk.

Eric says:  With European markets now at their highest levels since 2007 or in many cases, trading near all-time highs, investors must be selective. The bull market in global equities is mature and prospective investors would be wise to purchase only high-value stocks offering compelling multiples in a world marked by asset inflation.

In the developed world, the euro-zone is probably ‘fair value’ at best at current levels but much less expensive compared to New York in early 2018.

Stocks in Europe continue to provide much better relative and absolute values compared to bonds; the MSCI Eurozone Index of shares currently yields 3% compared to just 0.69% for a benchmark ten-year German government bund.  In Paris, the CAC-40 Index of large-cap stocks offers a 2.6% yield compared to 0.98% for a ten-year French government bond. Stocks remain attractively-priced even as the yield-curve in the eurozone has steepened along with the United States since last fall.  And as bond interest rates rise, banks typically earn a greater spread on deposits and loans.

Instead of buying a French index fund trading near all-time highs, I prefer to peruse the universe of CAC-40 Index blue-chips for bargains. And several are still available.  Industrials, consumer discretionary, telecom, energy and consumer staple stocks have all rallied over the past 12 months along with the banks. But bargains do beckon in Paris.

The two French stocks I’m recommending today rank among the Top Ten dividend-paying companies on the CAC-40 Index and trade at very attractive multiples.  Furthermore, they are both beneficiaries of the Macron tax cuts amid a restructuring of the French economy.

You can learn these two shares when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course described below.

These are both medium risk shares with VQs in the 20’s.

There you have it…  two ways to speculate by shifting the weighting of your portfolio within the realms of value.  Add more ETFs that invest in France or  in good value French shares.  You have some extra profit to gain, but still minimal chance of  long term loss.

Long term Keppler’s analysis suggests that the best results come from equal diversification in all good value markets… but in the short term France may see an extra bump up economically and more weighting in this market could result in increased profit.

There may be one more benefit.

Check with your tax advisor.  You might be able to deduct (at least partially) a trip to Paris to investigate the value of investing in France.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

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Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

For more details on ENR Asset Management contact Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Read ENR Asset Management’s ENR Advisory Extra Bulletin (FEBRUARY 2018) here

For more details on Tradestops.com click here