Tag Archive | "Value investing"

Anchor Sinks Investments


Here’s how to have a path to everlasting wealth.

Dive deep for truth.  Our recent message entitled, Divided Issues, examined a problem we have, as humans. We have to live and act upon on information and beliefs that we can only trust as true, knowing that there is always something we do not know.

Why are the foundations of our beliefs being increasingly shaken?   What can we do to carry on so we are successful and fulfilled?

We have never had as much technology that provides as much information.  Does this help us zero in on truth?   Actually the technology probably can fog rather than clear our vision.  Technology makes the entry level of publishing easier.   That’s good if you want to write or publish, but means that anyone can add in their opinion.  This leaves us wondering and scratching our heads over what might be fact based on actuality and what might be alternative facts based on agendas.

One problem is we live in a global economy, but most news is local.

Our world is increasingly connected, but Americans at all educational levels know less about the world than their counterparts did 20 years ago.

Alisia Miller has a great presentation at Ted.com (1) that shows how mainstream media slants the news.

For example, one month when North Korea agreed to dismantle its nuclear facilities, there was massive flooding in Indonesia and important news from Paris on global warming.  The U.S. accounted for 79 percent of total news coverage in the USA.  This is an image from Miller’s Ted.com presentation showing the land mass of the world.

ted talk on media

The graph below from Miller shows the number of seconds of news devoted to each country, during this period, when so much urgent activity was taking place outside the USA.

ted talk on media

A big remaining percentage was about Iraq.  The combined coverage of Russia, China and India reached just one percent.

The death of a movie star eclipsed news about every country, except Iraq, and received 10 times the coverage of the important Paris report on global warming.

Hidden agendas have too much influence over the news.

One reason we do not hear more global news is due to finance.  Broadband news has seriously eroded revenues of broadcast media.  News networks have reduced the number of their foreign bureaus by half.  For example, the total number of news networks in all of Africa, India and South America are three, ABC mini-bureaus in Nairobi, New Delhi and Mumbai, each staffed by one person.

Covering TV stars is cheaper than staying abreast of global news.

The bigger problems are in our brain.  Even if all the news was true and we had full access to it, this is more than we can possibly absorb.  We are ruled by a human constraint called “Limited Channel Capacity”.   Limited Channel Capacity is the word used to describe the fact that our brain can only deal with a limited amount of information at once.  If we are bombarded with too much data, we become confused and overloaded and freeze up like a deer caught in a spotlight.

It doesn’t matter how rational we think we are.  The chemicals in our brain often force us to make irrational decisions.  This affects our decisions, whether in love, life or our investment portfolios.

One Problem is Anchoring

Anchoring is related to overconfidence.  We make decisions based on information available.  Later, if we  get news that materially affects any forecasts we initially made instead of conducting a new analysis, we just revise our old analysis.

Because we are anchored in the old thinking, our revised analysis won’t fully reflect the new information.

Regret Minimization

How we act in the future is often affected by the outcomes of our previous experiences.   For example, we may have sold a stock at a 20% gain, only to watch the stock continue to rise after your sale.  We think, “If only I had waited.”  On the other hand if one of our investments falls in value our thinking leads to unpleasant feelings of regret.

Regret minimization occurs when we avoid investing altogether or invest conservatively because we don’t want to feel that regret.

We need effective, but easy to use ways to focus the news we absorb and powerful tools to verify the accuracy of the data before we invest.  We need the ability to dive below the surface of the noise generated by media and reach the still waters that run deep with truth.

We can reach truth better when we use financial news and mathematical tests of value to validate conclusions we arrive at from economic news.

Take for example, recent economic news.   Economic news shows that there has been a strong economy in the USA.

Economic news reveals growth problems in China.  Economic news spotlights risks in Europe.  The UK is leaving the European Union. Germany may suffer from so many new Syrian immigrants, etc.

Financial news from the latest Keppler Asset Management Developed Market analysis (below) shows that six of the ten best value developed markets are in Europe.

keppler-analysis

If we invest in Keppler’s Top Value portfolio which includes both the UK and Germany, the mathematics are even more in our favor than if we invest in Europe.

The economic news may be distorted and even if not,  current news is always changed by future surprises.

Investing in top value improves our odds because we begin with the best deal.

Economic news is slanted by opinion, lack of context, hidden agendas and more.  Financial news has mathematical discipline. 1 + 1 = 2.  There cannot be shades of opinion, slants or hidden agendas in that.

Winston Churchill once said: “It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look further than you can see.”  We live and invest in the turbulent shallows of the here and now.  History is filled with opinion and points of view.  Current news is distorted.  The future is unknown.  This makes it important to dive below the short term ups and downs of life and seek a more accurate form of reality.  One way is by relentlessly seeking value in investing and everything we do.

Gary

(1) www.ted.com Alisa_Miller-News about the news

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

Risks Beyond Money


The greatest risks to your savings, pensions and wealth have nothing to do with money.  Stress, worry and doubt are non-financial forces that can ruin more health and wealth than any economic concern.

No matter how much money you have, you’ll still be worried and stressed unless you have one important facet of wealth… “You have to enjoy the process and be adaptable”.

That’s why a mantra we have repeated for the past thirty years has been “Turn your Passion into Profit”.

A New York Times article entitled “No. 1 With a Bullet” helps explain why passion and adaptability are as important as profit.

The article tells the story of 22 year old Matt Haag.   In 2011 Matt was working as a cook at McDonalds.   Two year later he was a professional video game player in a popular series of war games.  That may seem like a silly career, but he was making close to a million dollars a year sitting in a soft chair playing a game he loves to play.  He earned contest winnings, had 1.5 million YouTube subscribers and lucrative contracts to live-stream his daily game sessions online from sponsors like Red Bull, the energy drink.

That’s a powerful example of turning a passion into profit!

Yet Mr. Haag isn’t having as much fun as he should.

The NYT article sums up the problem with a quote from him.   “I think about my future probably at least 10 times a day,” he said.  “I think about what if this all goes away one day?  What if for some reason people just aren’t in your live stream tomorrow?  What if people aren’t clicking on your YouTube videos tomorrow?  What if your team doesn’t work out and you’re not performing that well and you have to quit competitively?  What happens when you can’t compete anymore and you want to retire because you’re going insane?”

His worry was not without reason.  His fan base was largely teenagers and those who sell to this audience live with the near-constant fear that their audience will abandon them for something or someone else.  Haag’s fame only lasted a couple of years.

He was trapped in a cycle of worry.

The article again explains in this quote:  On another evening, Mr. Haag, bags under his eyes, wanted to take a night off and go back to the house in Venice.  He asked his teammates if they wanted to go with him. They declined.

Instead of letting his teammates siphon off fans who could be watching him, Mr. Haag changed his plan and stayed for yet another marathon session of streaming.  “I would love to go home and hang out, but you gotta do what you gotta do,” he said.  “Can’t complain too much, playing video games for a living.

Haag was 22.  He was making millions.  Instead of feeling on top of the world, he was stressed and worried.

Reduce the stress, and a lot of the worry goes away.

Earning extra income with your own micro publishing business can be extremely gratifying.  The business is adaptable.  This reduces stress to beneficial levels.  Merri and I  love self publishing because it is fun, a low stress, satisfying  business.  We know many would like to get started self publishing but miss out gaining a fun and second income that is also filled with prestige because they can’t find the funds to get off the ground.

This is so important that I want to send you a report entitled “How to Finance a Micro Business” FREE.   See the link below for the report  “How to Raise Start-Up Money” to finance a micro business”. 

This is free and without obligation.

Gary

Why Millions Are Not Enough

A micro business in self publishing can can make you richer than a billionaire.

Consider this.

During the last recession, a German billionaire quietly put on his coat, told his wife “I have to go to the office for a while”, and drove to a railway embankment near his home, where he lay on the frozen tracks and waited patiently for a train to crush him to death.

This man was ranked as one of the 100 richest men in the world, with a personal fortune that reached over $10 billion.  But even though he was worth billions, the global recession left him feeling out of control.

A Telegraph article on why he committed suicide (1) said:   He did not need the money.  He lived so modestly that he cycled to work on a 15-year-old bike for most of the year, and in bad weather he drove a four-year-old VW Golf.  He had no bodyguards or servants, lived in an unimposing chalet-style house in the small town of Blaubeuren, his home for the past 60 years, without so much as a CCTV camera for protection, and stopped off at his local pub on his way home each night to share a drink with the regulars.

The blame for his demise was placed perhaps most importantly on loss of control. “His companies were his life and when he was going to lose control of them he obviously felt he would lose control of his life” a friend said.

A short statement released by Merckle’s family said the “powerlessness of not being able to do anything” had been the key to his suicide.

Most of us can’t imagine becoming billionaires.  Most of us don’t have the background to build huge businesses.  Perhaps we won’t even have a really huge win at anything or any special stroke of good luck.

We have the power to have freedom, purpose and a sense of control anyway.  We can start taking that power right now by having one small win.  Every small win makes it easier to have the next small win and our successes do not have to be big deals to help us feel better and to lead us to greater success!

This is why I want to introduce you to our special course Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

My wife Merri and I are entering our fifth decade of writing and self publishing.  Though we are financially secure without a penny of debt, we keep working because we love what we do.  Your lifestyle can improve by leaps and bounds when two reasons (profit and passion) for writing come together.

This is why we have recorded our “Self Publishing Writer’s Camp” to help you get started in a micro self publishing business that starts small and maybe like our business stays small, tightly focused, but highly profitable, fun and highly fulfilling.

We love writing and self publishing so much that years ago we offered to conduct a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500.  80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.  Now you can enjoy that same course online for only $299, (or just $79 per quarter).

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

Here are  few stories of how those who attended our Writer’s Camps have used what they learned.

Barry Weinhold sent this note: We were successful authors before attending the Writer’s Camp, with our first book published in 1989 selling over 200,000 print copies. With the tips from your course last fall, we have published six new ebooks in Kindle format that are now available  at Amazon.com.

Thanks for helping us get the word out about Barry’s 2-part Breaking Family Patterns series. Janae has also released her 3-part Con Job series.

weinhold book

We’ve co-authored “How To Break Free of the Drama Triangle and Victim Consciousness.”

weinhold book

Our monthly royalty checks are now coming in and we are very pleased with the response to our new books (656 books sold and 1295 free downloads in seven months). We have six more new ebooks in the pipeline for publication.  Our goal is to publish twelve new ebooks by our one-year course anniversary. We couldn’t have published this quickly without the great support we received from your Writer’s Camp. We highly recommend it to anybody seeking the fast track to becoming independent self-publisher.

Self Publishers can also write in more than one niches.

Nickolette Goff writes non fiction in two niches.  After attending a Writer’s Camp Nicki used what she had learned to help promote her first book… a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes.  She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

What a joy seeing how helping and connecting people helps self publishers create their own special success.  How beautiful to see friends turn their passions into profit!

Nicki learned at the camp that getting these downloads is step three in a seven step process. We (and others) have been helping Nicki and our delegates walk through these steps so they can earn income through writing and publishing again and again.

Nicki is now well on her way to wonderful self publishing success.   She just completed her fourth book in a totally different genre gardening. This book is “Under Cover Gardening”.

She used the three day free Kindle marketing program again. Read about Nicki’s new book here.

kindle book

Nicki wrote:  Gary: My book was downloaded exactly 6000 times during the 3 days, and is selling around 5 per day right now.  I’m very pleased with the results – three 5* reviews so far.  Nicki

Chances are that most books you write will not be a best seller.  However Nicki’s books show the process that you use to create a steady income as you build inventory.   She is publishing numerous books in each of the genres she loves.  This creates extra income and added inventory if one of your books becomes a big success.

Let’s look at Nicki’s example again to see these benefits. Imagine this. Nicki writes a half dozen books, three on organic gardening and three on quinoa.

Then imagine that Oprah is interested in quinoa, reads Nicki’s book and has her on the show.  Nicki’s quinoa book sales will go bananas.  So too will all her other quinoa books.   Add further to this example and say that the national psyche just happens to be focused on better nutrition when this all happens.  If so, Nicki’s organic gardening book sales will skyrocket as well.

To sum this up… at the camp you’ll learn the importance of writing a lot for your niche.   The increased number of publications will allow you to keep your price low, but generate income that keeps you writing as you build inventory so any bigger success can grow in exponential bonds.

You can also self publish at any age.  A number of our friends who have used our writers course to self publish are in their 70s and 80s.  Yet college students have self published as well.

The father of the family of four wrote:  Hi Gary and Merri:  Just thought y’all would like to know that today Doss published his first book.  It is called College Confidential and it is currently listed at number 42 on amazon. com.  He would not have done it but for our experience this summer at your Writer’s Camp.

So, here is thanking you both very much.

Bill Winter

This book is written by a student, for students, College Confidential: An Insider’s Guide to Success written by Doss Winter is filled with practical tips and insider information addressing everything from Academics to getting your Zzzzs.

dos winter

Dos Winter

Order College Confidential at Amazon.com here.

Here are a few more examples of how others used the information from our workshop?

A long time friend, who had just retired from a 30 year career in the oil industry joined our program.  His passion was to learn more about health and looking at the deep, more spiritual aspects of life since he had ended a financially successful career. He has gone on to publishing the leading healthy living magazine where he lives.

Not only was he able to publish 20,000 copies of a 48-64 page magazine on healthy living every month, he was able to meet and work with leading health and spiritual leaders like Deepak Chopra, Dr. Wayne Dwyer and even the Dali Lama. What a thrill.

Michelle Toole, an at home mother, made a fateful decision… to attend our self publishing course.

Michelle was disabled when she took the “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” camp.

She took what she learned from our publishing courses and created her own successful global micro website.

Michelle wrote:  “I have some great news, my web site  http://healthy-holistic-living.com is now getting on average 2,000 visitors a day! Yup my little one man show web site now gets close to 60,000 visitors each month!  The power of the internet is amazing as well as the opportunities.  We have said it before but it deserves saying again the internet is truly the great equalizer.

“My web site is at a point now that it is growing without much effort and produces a nice passive income allowing me to continue working on my second site http://home-remedies-and-natural-cures.com and to get my third site up and running.  I am also working on various joint ventures with other web sites focusing on helping others start their own web business. I am doing monthly webinars helping disabled individuals start their own business on the Internet and will be starting a coaching club in the new year.  The opportunities are only limited by one’s imagination.

“Again I can not thank you and Merri enough, I look forward to many great adventures and new experiences in the coming years!”

Another successful self publisher who attended our workshop wrote :

“MY HEAD IS STILL SPINNING from all of the valuable input I received. Out in the boonies, 2 + hours from the airport in Charlotte , North Carolina it was not your typical setting for a business seminar.

“It was presented by a fascinating guy with an interesting career history. Gary Scott and his wife, Merri, split their time between their idyllic farm in North Carolina and their property in the mountains of Ecuador . I first heard about Gary through my interest in Ecuador .

“By his own admission, Gary is often ‘a bit ahead of the curve’ which is part of what makes his material interesting. You sense the authenticity of what he is saying but it has not caught on in the mainstream media or pop-culture.

“The input is that is already affecting my life was not just from the instructor, but from other participants. The small group, less than twenty, seemed to be intimately bonded as soon as the seminar started. People from all walks of life and all parts of the country gained insights from the information that was geared to create a ‘life of your choosing more so than just a successful business. A very simple but powerful concept. Why do we want the money in the first place?

“The lifestyle aspect of the course was taught by example. We, as a group, were temporarily inserted directly into the lifestyle led by Gary and Merri. No better way to learn than by doing.

“The course content suited my needs very nicely. It addressed issues pertinent to FilmTrips and my marketing company, MJ Media. New life has been injected into several FilmTrips projects that had been languishing on a back burner for quite some time. Gary talks about being open to ‘connect the dots’ and take advantage of distortions or discrepancies between economies and countries. I am in a very good position to do that. Telephone and Internet technology has certainly arrived to help make it happen. I will keep you posted!”

Delegates from our last camp wrote:

My daughter and I had a fantastic time at the Writer’s Camp this past weekend.  We both felt we gained a tremendous amount of knowledge on “how to make money with our writing skills”!  Thank you.
 
Yours and Merri’s expertise on transmitting knowledge to others is phenomenal.  The warm, personal feel of being with you both along with the great people in the class was great!
 
Thank you again for all the added information gained in all areas of life and what I consider gourmet meals served to us all.
 
Donna/Jeanna

Another wrote: Have just returned from the writing seminar conducted at your farm in Ashe County, North Carolina, I thought I’d give you my take on what I experienced. To suggest that the location, hosts, seminar content, and accommodations were adequate would be an understatement.

The seminar itself opened a whole new world that I hope to explore in the coming months. I drove away from your farm with a well inflated right rear tire and a wealth of information that could catapult me into a whole new profession should I opt to go that route. I still have a number of professional business ideas that I intend to pursue, however, the concepts and ideas conveyed in your seminar will serve to enhance whatever I undertake going forward.

But if there was one underlying common denominator that I recognized, it was the fact that you are both so well qualified to present in this field of communication. Probably my most prolific observation was how well read and knowledgeable you are. The breadth and depth of knowledge on so many diverse yet associated subjects kept my unswerving attention. It also opened my mind to a variety of fields that, heretofore, I would not have considered relevant to my interests. And as a presenter, Gary is prolific. I drove away knowing that not only did the seminar give me my money’s worth but I was introduced to some very valuable contacts.

The bottom line is your seminar was both eye opening and entertaining. I came, I saw, I learned, and I even ate healthy. Thanks for everything. John

The son of a father son team sent this note:

Hi Merri!  I just attended your writers camp with my dad this past weekend.  I didn’t get to express how much I appreciated all that you and Gary did for us this weekend because we were in a hurry to get to the airport.  Letting us stay in your cottage and having us for your writers camp was an experience that I will remember for the rest of my life! Gary and Merri’s stories of adventure, success, your lessons, and advice are truly priceless!!

This camp has inspired me. Writing has always come naturally for me but I never was able to view it as a business opportunity.

This camp has shown me not only that writing can be profitable, but HOW to make it profitable! Thank you so much for sharing your wisdom with me. In my lifetime, I could only hope to see the success that you and Gary have achieved.

I not have only signed up for your newsletter, but I can’t stop spreading the word to my friends about my experience. Thanks again for your amazing hospitality,  Mitchell

If you accept our invitation, the workshop hammers, even bombards you with the absolute, vital importance of starting small.  We live in the era of epublishing that makes small “big”.  This plays perfectly into the hands of small businesses and copywriters as we just happened to have a perfect advantage right now in the marketplace.

Now let’s get to the important stuff.  Our life is less stressed because Self Publishing can be a low stress business… no commuting… choose your own hours… immersed in your passions with like minded souls. Work at home. How refreshing!

gary-scott-image

Here I am at our Florida home… at work?

gary scott

Here I am at work in the Blue Ridge.  Better than a cubicle for sure!

You can have fun every day doing what you love as you accomplish goals that are important… to you… and are a service to your community.

Merri and I, for example, love helping people get jobs.  So we used self publishing to create a foundation (Land of the Sun Foundation) to help the indigenous learn how to get work.  The foundation has donated nearly a million dollars in Ecuador to create jobs.

What do you love? Why not make the kinds of money I’ve just mentioned publishing your passion and do something good for the world at the same time?

Your passion and self publishing create…magic, wealth, happiness.

Three other things you gain.

#1: Respect. If you are not a recluse like Merri and me, you’ll find yourself the center of attention at social events and with your friends and in business because publishing is highly respected.

#2: Power. Everyone wants publishers to distribute good information about them. And everyone fears publishers a bit. The pen IS mightier than the sword!

#3: Protection. Writers are protected by the 1st Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. You do not need a license to publish. There is no government watchdog nor do you have bureaucratic red tape involved in publishing. Publishers enjoy almost more freedom than any other occupation because of the Freedom of the Press. This is so powerful because the first amendment is actually a part of the Bill of Rights. Just in case you missed this in school (as most students did including me) here are the exact words of this amendment:  “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

You become the press and you are set free. You cannot get more protection than that.

The recorded workshops shows how self publishing can fulfill your material needs.

You can enjoy this wonderful lifestyle whether you are married or single, rich or poor, in good or bad health, educated or not. Self publishing works for travelers and those who want to just stay at home.

This workshop helps anyone who wants to write or publish or both.   See how published products can include compilations, catalogues, CDS, interviews. Plus look at how to develop treks, tours, visits, products and services.

You’ll see how one delegate who attended the workshop used her publication to sell real estate.

This course is for individuals and couples.  We include those who want their own publishing system together as a family business.

This workshop is not theory.  Merri and I share our real time experiences.  We start at the beginning over 40 years ago but mainly look at how we earn hundreds of thousands and even millions a year in our exciting lifestyle… right now.

Whether you are self employed, retired,  a professional or are employed, this course is for you if you want to add extra income or who want to change their life entirely.  Previous course delegates have included investors, chiropractors, doctors, dentists, lawyers, architects, other professionals and those who already own their own business and of course retirees.

Self publishing is now easier to start than ever before because of online publishing.

Which would you rather have… 6% of $10 or 70% of $3?

The math to this question brings an obvious answer and creates opportunity for those who want a writer’s life.

Starting with online books allows you to lower price…  increase volume and cut out a publisher, distributor and book store who normally absorb up to 88% of the income created by a book.

You can start self publishing using Amazon.com with no printing costs, no shelf space, no inventory, no postal delivery.  Most of the publishing expenses are eliminated.

The writer keeps 70%.

Amazon keeps 30%.

A typical writer earning 12% of the wholesale book sales makes about $.60 per $9.99 book sale.  An Amazon.com writer makes $2.10 on a $3 sale.

Buyers of books fall into niches.  Choosing the correct niche is a first step in the elusive process of capturing the national psyche.  When you tap into this phenomenon, you can earn millions just from online sales.   I know. This process has netted an extra $2,072,614.89 for my business in the past several years.

Technology especially favors small publishers today. Portable computers, the internet, wireless access, on demand printing smart phones and electronic readers all create enormous new potential for small publishers.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner.  We could not run our business as we do without him.

You can learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business and Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

We are so confident that you’ll be satisfied that if you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive the Report, “How to Finance a Micro Business” at no extra fee.

Merri and I have always preferred to start our micro businesses  through cash flow.  However in the early the days of our business I found myself raising extra capital several times.  I have also helped numerous businesses raise money to get started.  This report shares several experiences to give a thumbnail sketch of how to raise to get a micro business off the ground.

One of the biggest reasons readers do not get started being their own boss, gaining a second income and taking a first step towards greater freedom, is they can’t find the funds to get of the ground.  This is so important and I am so dedicated to gaining  more independence  that I’ll send this report to you free even if you do not order our Self Fulfilled course at this time.   See the link below for the free report  “How to Raise Start Up Money” free and without obligation.

In addition you receive any updates we make on any of these courses reports or recordings, free for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Start-up Money”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee to share all we know to help you start and run your own publishing business.

Don’t miss this opportunity.  Sign up with this special $79 offer.   We’ll send the full original of the course “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” (101) and additional updated lessons each month.   We will charge an installment of $79 each quarter for the update lessons.  Or you can enroll in the entire course for a full year for $299.

Our Guarantee

If you are not fully satisfied, you can cancel the course any time in the first 60 days for a full refund of all unfilled lessons, and there will be no additional fee.  No quarterly renewal fee will be charged if you cancel.

Why the Update Lessons?

What all professional publishers know is that the world of publishing changes continually and that the key to continual success is to test, test, test and keep the business evolving with the market place.   The course you receive is up to date, but it will fall out of date soon.  To keep you in touch with the latest trends, techniques and ideas, we add regular update lessons to your course.

We have over thirty years experience and are active in the publishing world every day.  We work with several of the largest internet publishers in the world and gain a continual flow of new experiences, ideas, tactics and strategies.  Your update lessons bring you the latest innovations that are being used in the publishing world right now.  This is a key to maintaining a continual flow of ever lasting residual income from you publications.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us any time during the first 60 days for a full refund. 

Our Guarantee

If you are not fully satisfied, you can cancel the course any time in the first 60 days for a full refund of all unfilled lessons and there will be no additional fee.  No quarterly renewal fee will be charged if you cancel.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

Still not convinced?

If your budget is tight.  Learn how to raise money to start a micro business FREE

The best way to build a small business and gain financial security is by financing through cash flow.  However there are two benefits from knowing how to raise money.  First it gives you access to capital if you need it.  Second the process of raising capital is similar to getting customers so this report can help you gain clients as well as seed money from around the world.

For example the report shows how I gained financing for a house in London England without borrowing a penny.

This first lesson reviews the importance of flexible thinking in your efforts to raise start up cash.  I learned this in my attempt to finance that London house.  My business plan was to create a small club that shared an office and apartment complex.  I asked banks for a $375,000 loan to buy this house.  The banks refused to lend, but the process showed me how to get 50 loans of $15,000 each for customers to purchase club memberships.

This was much better deal for me than borrowing the money to start.  The club membership sales were financed by the bank. I was able to get twice the money I needed and the club membership buyers each had a small debt instead of a large one assigned to me.

From that time forward whenever I think finance, I look far beyond just getting a loan.  There are numerous ways to skin the “start-up capital” cat and whenever you can do it through easy sales, you are better off.   You may be able to obtain credit from suppliers or let your buyers use their credit to get you what you want.

This is one of many ways that Merri, David and I have helped readers turn their passion into profit.   There are so many examples that I created the report entitled “How to Fund a Micro Business” which sharers ideas on how we have helped raise money abroad.  I have sold thousands of copies of this valuable report, but to help you get started am willing to send it to you free.

Order the report “How to Raise Start-Up Money” FREE. Click here

Gary

 

The Danger of Market Jitters


There was disaster in the news this morning.  Yesterday’s message Euro and Value warned about imminent risk to the US dollar.  We never know what the future will bring so I cannot claim to have known that the dollar and stock market would slide the same day that the message  appeared.

Then by evening the news had changed.  U.S. stocks and the dollar rebound after a steep selloff.

This type of jitters suggest we are headed toward a time when markets will be ruled by fear. There are good reasons for this.  The US market is over priced and FDR had it right.  He said in his first inaugural address: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”.

The US dollar will fall.  The only factor remaining is time, but many investors will lose before the correction because of fear.

We should not be fearful.  I’ll explain why in a moment.  We should however be prepared to deal with the consequences of fear, because the greenback’s crash would bring disaster caused by rising anxiety, angst and despair.  The question is simply “When?”

We should not waste the precious time we have on this earth worrying about this.  We do not have to be pushed along by the way the world reacts to change and the unknown.  We can be happy when most of the world is sad.  We can be steadfast when most of the world is ready to run.  We can be successful and fulfilled when most of the world fails and feels hollow, empty, bereft.

However, I ask you to consider the implications of the articles below.  Then I will explain why the fear should not matter to you and me and what each of us as individuals can do to protect ourselves in such a storm and help steady the rocking socio-economic boat.

WSJ.com

Graph from Wall Street Journal article, “Investors Turn Sharply Pessimistic” (1).

The article says:

  • Markets take a hit around the world; Dow’s 372.82 fall is its worst since September
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average falls more than 370 points
  • U.S. Dollar Index erases post election gains
  • Safer assets rally, with 10-year Treasury yield falling to 2.216%

Turbulence in Washington jolted markets out of an extended period of calm Wednesday.

Stocks, the U.S. dollar and government-bond yields slid as investors pulled back from bets on the swift passage of President Donald Trump’s agenda. Wagers that his policies would boost growth and inflation have been unwinding for months, but those moves accelerated Wednesday.

In one of the clearest signs of waning investor confidence, a closely watched measure of the dollar’s value erased its post election gains.

Later another article at the same paper appeared entitled “Stocks, Dollar Sinks on Washington Turmoil” (2) explaining that the Dow Industrials had suffered their worst day since September 2016.

The article said:  Investors’ burgeoning anxiety about the future of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda jarred financial markets on Wednesday, upending months of relative tranquility and steady gains.

Stocks have rallied for months even as the Trump administration was sidetracked by political setbacks and controversies. But concerns heightened after Tuesday’s reports that James Comey, former director of the FBI, had written in a memo that Mr. Trump had asked him to back off the investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. The White House has denied the account.

That’s scary enough but may readers will miss the significance for now of another Wall Street Journal article:  “U.S. Household Debt Hit Record in First Quarter”.   Evidently, according to the article, lowered unemployment and an expanded economic outlook have made the public feel optimistic enough to borrow instead of pay off loans.

The article said:   The total debt held by American households reached a record in early 2017, exceeding its 2008 peak after years of retrenchment against a backdrop of financial crisis, recession and modest economic growth.

A slowing economy and falling stock market should not matter much in a person’s life, if they do not have the daily pressure of paying off debt.  This trend of rising debt makes it more likely that investors will react poorly in a fear based market.

There are plenty of opportunities for fear.

A New York Times article “Dangerous Times for Trump and the Nation” (4) gives just one example when it compares risks that Donald Trump will come unhinged and compares his situation to that of Richard Nixon.  The article says (bolds are mine):

In 1974, as Richard Nixon’s presidency was collapsing, he was drinking heavily and aides worried that he was becoming unstable. Fearing what might go wrong, Nixon’s defense secretary, James Schlesinger, secretly instructed the military not to carry out any White House order to use nuclear weapons unless confirmed by him or Henry Kissinger.

This was unconstitutional. And wise.

Schlesinger also prepared secret plans to deploy troops in Washington in the event of problems with the presidential succession.

We don’t know how Trump will respond in the coming months, and let’s all hope for smooth sailing.  But as with Schlesinger’s steps, it’s wise to be prepared.

Is it possible that Trump will try to get everything refocused by attacking some place such as North Korea?   No one knows if the fear will go that far.   That lack of knowing is cause enough to fear.

However, there are qualities we can each use to make sure that whatever happens we are in the best possible position to be successful, happy and fulfilled despite the fear of others.

In the late 1990s, when my writing was mostly focused on global investing,  I wanted to share some ideas about how our spiritual nature has an impact on our wealth.  Readers were not very open to such a message at that time.   The UAL confounded me.  I could talk about having the spirit of adventure, the spirit of entrepreneurship, the spirit of hard work, etc. but when I added the UAL and wrote about investing having a spiritual nature, the message met with resistance.

So I wrote a novel, “65th Octave,” that incorporated 15 natural qualities that we can use to make life better.   These are qualities that in my 49 years of global travel I found used in ancient wisdom everywhere.  My belief in these qualities is based on how well they worked for me and the fact that these are qualities that wise people recommend globally.

The “65th Octave” revealed the qualities as “Golden Words” and wrapped them in animal spirits to make them less esoteric in the hopes that readers would work through the riddles and understand how to use these qualities to improve their lives.

I have found several of these qualities of growing importance in a world that can seem increasingly bewildering.

Qualities we can use when we feel turmoil, anger, depression or outright fear are:

Friendliness.  In the “65th Octave” this is represented by the Spirit of the dog who offers pure friendship and happiness even if given nothing in return.  No matter what situation we are faced with, if we are friendly in our response we will do better than any other human reaction.  This does not mean we should be friends.  There is a big difference to being a friend and being friendly.  Friendliness does NOT mean we should be obsequient, demur or a coward.

Perhaps Winston Churchill’s quote about the civil nature of his declaration of war to Japan sums up the quality of friendliness in the worst circumstances nicely.  His quote was: ““When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite.”

Compassion.  The spirit of the Opossum uses this quality to engender compassion in even most the violent, hungry predator.   The natural expression of that animal’s wisdom recognizes that compassion is a quality in all sentient beings.  Compassion allows us to understand.

Compassion does NOT mean we have to agree or accept.

Happiness.  I wrapped this into the spirit of the dog noting how our dog wags her tail  for almost any reason even just because Merri or I enter the room.  When events stun, befuddle or mystify, we need to understand that it is not the events that are out of order, it is our thinking.  Everything is in perfect order.  Turbulence is simply evolution beyond our understanding.  We fear change because we cannot see the bigger picture.

That’s okay. That’s how it’s always been.  So whatever happens be happy.  You do not have to be happy about a change or a shift or some event that appears to be a nightmare.  Simply do not let the state of affairs become your inner state.  Be happy regardless.  Being sad, anxious, depressed will hamper whatever proceeds.  Being happy will help.

Strength.   The spirit of the Buffalo represents the strength that allows us to walk though the valley with no fear.  Our friendliness, compassion, and happiness add to our strength and help us accomplish what we believe is right.

You can learn all the Golden Words in my novel.  It has long been out of print but used copies are offered at Amazon.com.

65th Octave

To find a used copy of the 65th Octave at Amazon.com click here

Another way to protect against the fear is to ignore the economic news that focuses on drama and tragedy.   Use financial news instead to find worry free, good value investments. 

When markets become fear based, the professional traders come out to play.

I have spent at lot of time in the trading halls of big European banks working with their trading experts.   This experience taught me several facts.

  • The traders are brilliant.
  • The traders have immense support and capital.
  • Trading is a zero sum game.  Someone loses and someone wins.  There is no win-win in trading.
  • I do not want to trade against these well trained, well financed, brilliant experts. You should not either.

These traders are smarter than I am, have deeper pockets and they have systems that stop them from being irrational.

If we have simple, low cost techniques to diversify into a broad base of good value equities based on current book to price, cash flow to price and earnings we can save time that we can use to invest in doing what we love with our own micro business.

A micro business makes it fun & fulfilling to matter.

We can regain a true power of importance, fulfillment, wealth and freedom by serving others in a profitable way.  A multi dimensional micro business creates freedom as it redesigns your lifestyle by bringing profit, fulfillment and peace of mind, by helping others doing what you love.

We live in a fortunate era.  Throughout most of history, life expectancy and requirements of work meant that the most experienced sector of the work force was no longer physically able to continue.  In our high tech environment we have a chance to create our most important pinnacle career at a time when previously we would have retired.  This is the first time in mankind’s history when the value of our experience is worth more than the cost of getting it.

For the past year, since the 2016 Presidential election began we have been bombarded with increasingly bizarre and worrisome economic and political news.   Most of this information is meant by one side or the other to engender, anger or fear.  This acceleration of  toxic information is a disaster that daunts us everywhere.  Accompanied by a stock market or US dollar crash, the fear factor could rise.

Use the qualities above and see the comedy of life so that change does not turn into drama and tragedy for you.

Gary

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership  at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

(1) WSJ.com:  Investors Turn Sharply Pessimistic

(2) WSJ.com: Stocks, Dollar Sink on Washington Turmoil

(3) WSJ.com: U.S. Household Debt Hit Record in First Quarter

(4) NYT.com: Dangerous Times for Trump and the Nation

Investing in Silver Linings


Smart investors look for the clouds so they can spot the silver linings.

Take for example the problem of climate change and rising seas.

geogarage.com

Image from geogarage.com (1)

One can argue over weather climate change is man made or not, but smart investors let others waste their time bickering and look for the silver lining instead.  Wise investors ask, “if global warming is a fact, what can I do about it?”.

Global warming will create innumerable problems.  One huge concern is America’s population crowded along the coast.  In Florida for example porous bedrock, and tropical storms put about 1.3 million homes at risk from storm surges.  Florida, has the most of any state by far (nearly half the risk nationwide).  A recent Florida Atlantic University study estimated that just 6 more inches of sea level rise — very plausible within two decades — would cripple about half of South Florida’s flood control capacity.

What’s the silver lining?  Florida spacious high ground.  I am taking advantage of this myself, having invested in a Mt. Dora (the highest town in Florida) home rental business.  The sun still shines in Florida.  State income tax is still non existent. People are still pouring in.  I believe they will continue to do so, but they will need homes in higher elevations.  I want the people do that.

Look for areas of flooding and invest in high ground near by.  You can check how vulnerable any area in the US is at Surgingseas.org (2).

This website has an analysis that factors in local sea level rise projections, storm-surge patterns and tides, as well as local topography and patterns of development.  They have mapped and evaluated risk in 3,000 towns, cities and counties across the lower 48 states, including South Florida, and have a free, ZIP code-searchable interactive map with neighborhood views and risk information at SurgingSeas interactive map (3).

For example here is a shot I took from this site of Tampa now.

surgingseas.org

and the flooding risk if the temperature rise two degrees C.

surgingseas.org

Sea level rise is already increasing flood threats everywhere.  It’s set to become an even greater problem much sooner than most people expect.  This is a huge cloud over much of the world and the problem creates many silver linings.

Gary

(1) blog.geogarage.com: US cities lag in race against rising seas

(2) Surgingseas.org interactive map

When Too Big To Fail Is Too Small

Our world turned upside down when, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stock prices plummet and the earnings on their safe savings collapse to zero return.  That  financial ruin was created very much in part by banks that were “Too Big to Fail”.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that can create a greater economic landslide.  There are numerous scandals at US and overseas big banks.  These calamities can make the safety net of “Too Big to Fail”, too small.  The disintegration that ensues could ruin average investors in three ways.

The risk is systemic because the bigger the bank, the more corrupt it seems to be.  This makes sense.  These banks have little to lose.  Why not cheat and take risks?  When fraud and speculation fail, the bank is bailed out by taxpayers.  No one, except the customer, gets too badly harmed.

Wells Fargo is an example.  Even after new regulations and backups were put in place after 2009, this entire organization continued to treat clients with complete disdain.

Here are some of the risks.

First, banks will have more opportunity to cheat because of increased stock market turmoil.  Every part of the US stock market has reached an all time high.  Global stock market volatility has also picked up.  The world is in a period of technological, political and economic transformation.  None of the old rules are as certain as they used to be.  Nothing makes markets shakier than the unknown.

Second, the new administration will reduce bank regulations.  Reduced regulations are good for business but big overseas banks have especially taken advantage of investors and home owners.  Foreign big banks have acted with impunity and need to be regulated.

Third, we’ll see rising interest rates.  Banks will raise interest rates as fast as they can.  The key to bank profitability is “Net Interest Margin”, the difference between the rate banks pay for deposits and money and what they charge for loans.   When interest rates collapsed in the late 2000s, banks made extra profit one time.  Their securities portfolios rose, loan defaults slowed and the cost of deposits fell.  Yet over time as new loans brought lower yields and the one-time boosts were gone, the lower interest rates squeezed bank profit margins.

The government and the Fed will want higher rates to avoid runaway inflation.  This will strengthen the US dollar short term but hurt the US stock market and the dollar in the long run.

The rising interest rates will be accompanied by inflation.  The government and the Fed do not want inflation but they will create it anyway.  They will spend more and reduce tax that increases US debt financed by savings from Europe, China and Japan.  Currently, America’s gross debt is more than $19 trillion, or 105 percent of GDP.  This has been sustainable in recent years because interest rates have been at historic lows.  As rates rise from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019, government interest payments will more than triple from $250 billion in 2016 to more than $800 billion in 2026.  By 2030, interest alone will represent over 14 percent of the federal budget.  If interest rates rise even higher,  Federal payments will be even greater—a one percentage point increase costs the country an additional staggering $1.6 trillion over a decade.  If interest rates returned to the record-high levels of the 1980s, the country would pay $6 trillion more in interest alone.

This debt will cause the US dollar to fall.

Here are three steps to take that can protect your investments in this scenario. 

Protection #1: Avoid Too Big to Fail Banks.  When you use a global bank, you are not using just one institution.  You are dealing with a big business that owns multiple banks in different regions.  This has costly implications for how far the bank’s equity goes, and how small safe the particular bank you choose really is.  Plus banks with two or more sub banks have more ways to take advantage of investors.  For example, one division of a bank can be recommending an investment to customers while having another unit in another country sell the investment short.  The bank makes money in three ways: creating the investment, selling the investment to customers and selling it short when the investment implodes.

Use local community banks where you can know your bankers, what they are doing and where their reputations are their most important asset.

Protection #2:  Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether you like to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Invest in a diversified portfolio based on fundamental value.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches  three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

The Spring 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Emerging Markets”

Investing in this broad spectrum of good value does not mean that profits will come over night.  Often markets remain distorted for extended periods of time.

History shows, though, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

This tactic is a simple, easy and low cost way to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

The third tool Pi provides is a way to spot ideal position speculations to use sparingly to enhance performance with greater risk.

Protection #3:   Spot Distortions that Create Ideal Condition for Speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies ion a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

In 2015 Pi recommended speculating in silver because of a dip in the price of silver.   We sent Pi subscribers a report entitled Silver Dip 2015.   That tactic returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.

In 2017 Platinum speculation is even better.

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written and is available to Pi subscribers to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

More Than Portfolio Performance


Profit comes from more than just portfolio performance.

If we have good habits that take care of our health, spend less than we earn and look after our savings, we’ll probably end up with plenty to retire.  But life really is about more than just the money.

A mantra at this site is that the idea of retirement is not a good idea. 

trout

Believe it or not, for me, this is work.  I love fishing so one of my micro businesses is to raise trout.

A recent Wall Street article “When good habits go against you” (1) says: Imagine spending a lifetime acquiring habits that offer the promise of a longer, happier and more fulfilling life. Then imagine that to have that fulfilling life, you suddenly must abandon all those habits.

Not easy, is it? But that’s what happens when people go from work to retirement, from saving money to spending it. Too often, the same personality traits that facilitate saving for retirement become impediments when it is time to spend that money.  The mental tricks we employ while working become mental mistakes when we move into the next phase of our lives.

Let’s take this thought one step further and ask “Why should we wait until age 65 or any arbitrary age to develop habits to have that longer, happier and more fulfilling life?”

The idea of retirement at age 65 is wrong.  This concept was a political trick used by Bismarck to win elections at a time when few people lived to be age 65.  The idea of working most of our lives just to have a happier more fulfilling life after age 65 is wrong as well.

We should all have a pinnacle career, where we do what we love and figure out how to profit financially from the activity as a byproduct.  Age should not be a barrier.  In fact this is an era where technology makes our experience worth more than the cost of getting it… the more years we have lived, the better we should be in our career.

When we have a pinnacle, we do not want to retire.  Fulfillment is more important than the money and when we are fulfilled we live longer as well.

This is why we created an investing course (the Purposeful investing Course or “Pi”) that allows us to protect our investments and increase our profits by diversifying in multi-currency good value stock markets without spending a lot of our time in the process.

We created the course and started our personal Pifolio in December 2015.   The US market is NOT a good value market and the US dollar contains a lot of risk, so all the markets we chose were non US markets.

Timing was poor in that there was a dip in global markets literally after we made the investment.  You can see the dip (the red X is our date of purchase) in the share performance of the Vanguard International Equity Index ETF which I use as the bellwether for measuring our portfolio performance.

motif

Performance chart of  The Vanguard International Equity Index Fund  at www.finance.yahoo.com (2)

This Vanguard ETF Vanguard International Equity Index Fund (Symbol VT) tracks stock markets all over the globe, with the exception of the United States.  As an index product, the fund targets stocks from this universe that constitute the largest 98 percent based on market cap.   This fund offers perhaps the easiest way for investors to make a low cost equity investment in both developed and emerging international economies.

This ETF has risen from $59.92 December 1st 2015 to $66.28 on April 30th, 2017.   This is a 10+% rise.

The Good Value Portfolio we created has risen over 14+% in the same period so it is strongly over performing the bellwether at this time.

This portfolio is really hopping in 2017 and is up over 10% in the first 5 months of this year.  Let’s hope it keeps that pace.

motif

The lesson we share here is not about the great performance but about how little time was required to gain such strong performance and added safety.

Frankly, if we compare the the bellwether ETF VT to  the Dow Jones Industrial Index (Red) or S&P 500 Index (Green) below, the profits from December 2015 till now have been higher in the USA.

Had one invested in either index over this period (Dec.  2015 to now) their performance would have been slightly better, due to the strength of the US dollar.

stock chart

Our good value portfolio is diversified into 18 good value equity market ETFs  denominated in 13 currencies.

This is the current breakdown of each ETF as a percent of the total Pifolio.

Developed Countries

Market Australia   Symbol EWA  Percent of portfolio 8.4%   –  Austria EWO  9.0% – France EWQ 8.3%  –  Germany EWG 9.3%

HK  EWH 8.2%  –  Italy EWI  6.7%  –  Japan EWJ 7.5% –  Norway NORW 7.5%  –  Spre EWS 7.9%  –  UK EWU 7.0%

Developing Countries

Brazil EWZ 3.9%  –  Chile ECH 3.1%  –  China FXI 2.7%  –  Colombia ICOL 3.1%  –   Malaysia EWM 1.7%  –  South Korea  EWY 2.8%

Taiwan EWT 2.9%

During this entire period there has only been one trade, when in 2017 I used dividends earned to add the Platinum ETF, PPLT which represents 4% of the portfolio.

To me, the greatest value of this type of investing is not the added safety nor the extra profit.  These are important features,  yes, but the extra time I have to devote to things I love-writing, buying and fixing real estate, raising fish, growing oranges, importing roses, gardening, is the really big profit.

I certainly enjoy life more and will hopefully live longer, plus I am pretty sure that the income these activities generate are greater than if the time was spent fiddling with my investments.  In fact, most studies about investing suggest that the fiddling reduces portfolio profits.

The big profits in Purposeful investing are improved health, added longevity, more fun and fulfillment.

Time, that’s the greatest asset of all!  Create your purposes so you invest it well.

Gary

(1) wsj.com: When Good Habits Go Against You

(2) Vanguard share chart at finance.yahoo.com

When Too Big To Fail Is Too Small

Our world turned upside down when, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stock prices plummet and the earnings on their safe savings collapse to zero return.  That  financial ruin was created very much in part by banks that were “Too Big to Fail”.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that can create a greater economic landslide.  There are numerous scandals at US and overseas big banks.  These calamities can make the safety net of “Too Big to Fail”, too small.  The disintegration that ensues could ruin average investors in three ways.

The risk is systemic because the bigger the bank, the more corrupt it seems to be.  This makes sense.  These banks have little to lose.  Why not cheat and take risks?  When fraud and speculation fail, the bank is bailed out by taxpayers.  No one, except the customer, gets too badly harmed.

Wells Fargo is an example.  Even after new regulations and backups were put in place after 2009, this entire organization continued to treat clients with complete disdain.

Here are some of the risks.

First, banks will have more opportunity to cheat because of increased stock market turmoil.  Every part of the US stock market has reached an all time high.  Global stock market volatility has also picked up.  The world is in a period of technological, political and economic transformation.  None of the old rules are as certain as they used to be.  Nothing makes markets shakier than the unknown.

Second, the new administration will reduce bank regulations.  Reduced regulations are good for business but big overseas banks have especially taken advantage of investors and home owners.  Foreign big banks have acted with impunity and need to be regulated.

Third, we’ll see rising interest rates.  Banks will raise interest rates as fast as they can.  The key to bank profitability is “Net Interest Margin”, the difference between the rate banks pay for deposits and money and what they charge for loans.   When interest rates collapsed in the late 2000s, banks made extra profit one time.  Their securities portfolios rose, loan defaults slowed and the cost of deposits fell.  Yet over time as new loans brought lower yields and the one-time boosts were gone, the lower interest rates squeezed bank profit margins.

The government and the Fed will want higher rates to avoid runaway inflation.  This will strengthen the US dollar short term but hurt the US stock market and the dollar in the long run.

The rising interest rates will be accompanied by inflation.  The government and the Fed do not want inflation but they will create it anyway.  They will spend more and reduce tax that increases US debt financed by savings from Europe, China and Japan.  Currently, America’s gross debt is more than $19 trillion, or 105 percent of GDP.  This has been sustainable in recent years because interest rates have been at historic lows.  As rates rise from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019, government interest payments will more than triple from $250 billion in 2016 to more than $800 billion in 2026.  By 2030, interest alone will represent over 14 percent of the federal budget.  If interest rates rise even higher,  Federal payments will be even greater—a one percentage point increase costs the country an additional staggering $1.6 trillion over a decade.  If interest rates returned to the record-high levels of the 1980s, the country would pay $6 trillion more in interest alone.

This debt will cause the US dollar to fall.

Here are three steps to take that can protect your investments in this scenario. 

Protection #1: Avoid Too Big to Fail Banks.  When you use a global bank, you are not using just one institution.  You are dealing with a big business that owns multiple banks in different regions.  This has costly implications for how far the bank’s equity goes, and how small safe the particular bank you choose really is.  Plus banks with two or more sub banks have more ways to take advantage of investors.  For example, one division of a bank can be recommending an investment to customers while having another unit in another country sell the investment short.  The bank makes money in three ways: creating the investment, selling the investment to customers and selling it short when the investment implodes.

Use local community banks where you can know your bankers, what they are doing and where their reputations are their most important asset.

Protection #2:  Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether you like to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Invest in a diversified portfolio based on fundamental value.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches  three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

The Spring 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Emerging Markets”

Investing in this broad spectrum of good value does not mean that profits will come over night.  Often markets remain distorted for extended periods of time.

History shows, though, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

This tactic is a simple, easy and low cost way to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

The third tool Pi provides is a way to spot ideal position speculations to use sparingly to enhance performance with greater risk.

Protection #3:   Spot Distortions that Create Ideal Condition for Speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies ion a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

In 2015 Pi recommended speculating in silver because of a dip in the price of silver.   We sent Pi subscribers a report entitled Silver Dip 2015.   That tactic returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.

In 2017 Platinum speculation is even better.

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written and is available to Pi subscribers to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Dollar Time Bomb


How can we survive the US Dollar Time bomb?

pricedingold.com

Image from pricedingold.com(1)

A recent recorded update at our Personal investment Course (Pi)  looked at the fact that US national debt is no big deal.  No one expects any government to repay all its debt.

The current cost and timely payment of US debt service is a big deal.  It’s bigger than big, call it a huge deal, one that’s the bedrock of the global economy’s foundation.

If the bedrock of US government interest payments slips, expect an economic earthquake of unprecedented proportions.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget article  “The cost-rising-interest-rates” (2) says:  “Last year, the federal government spent $241 billion – roughly 1.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – on interest payments.  That’s among the lowest at any point since the 1970s, driven by historically low interest rates.

Yet recent market activity and expected Federal Reserve actions already suggest interest rates will rise; in fact, both the 3-month Treasury bill and 10-year Treasury note have increased by over 75 percent in the past 5 months.”

As savers, we hate low dollar interest rates.  But dollar investors are in a lose-lose position.  If dollar interest rates rise, Federal debt service risks undermining the strength of the US dollar.  If dollar interest rates remain low and other currency rates rise, this too undermines the strength of the US dollar.

The Wall Street Journal article “Obama’s Debt Interest Bomb” (3) helps explain the dilemma.

The article says:  “Rising interest payments are already showing up in the federal fisc.

“President Obama left his successor many time bombs—think chemical weapons in Syria and the collapsing Affordable Care Act.  But a burning fuse that gets less attention showed its first signs of the explosion to come in Friday’s Congressional Budget Office budget review for March: Rising net interest payments on the national debt.

“CBO reported that the federal budget deficit rose $63 billion in the first half of fiscal 2017 (October-March) to $522 billion from a year earlier. But here’s the especially bad omen: Net interest payments rose $7 billion, or 30%, in March from a year earlier.

“While Mr. Obama was doubling the national debt over eight years, the Fed’s monetary policies spared him from the fiscal consequences.

“This not-so-free Fed lunch is starting to end.  CBO estimates that $160 billion more spending will be required each year over the next decade if interest rates are merely one percentage point higher than in its current projections.”

What should we do to avoid this US dollar time bomb?

Obviously the answer is to invest in non dollar assets.  But which?  We cannot trust the economic news. The economic news even in the most reliable publications is little more than opinion and conjecture.  Plus if you read something in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal, it’s already old news.  The big investors will have already prepared to rip off  the millions of readers who act on the news.

For example, last week, the New York Times wrote:  “Emerging Markets Are Bouncing Back From a Six-Year Slowdown.  As Turkey hurtled toward one of the most politically divisive polls in its history, the country’s business leaders reacted in a curious manner.  They ramped up production.  Ignoring terrorism threats, the yo-yoing of the Turkish currency and a president quick to pick fights with Europe, Turkish manufacturers last month reported their most buoyant month of economic activity in three years.”

Yet on the same day the Wall Street Journal reported a totally different and opposite opinion.

The Wall Street Journal article was entitled “This Is a Dangerous Time to Own Emerging Markets”.

The article said “Some worry a recent buying spree has resulted in lofty valuations as geopolitical tensions rise.  A crack is forming in an emerging-market revival that channeled almost $60 billion into assets of developing economies during the first months of 2017.”

Invest in non dollar good value markets based on mathematically based financial news instead.

For example, the analysis we provide from Keppler Asset Management shows that emerging markets offer better value that developed markets.

This mathematical analysis is based on the real facts of value such as price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield.

keppler

Valuations shown in the latest Keppler Asset Management Emerging Market Analysis.

Emerging markets as a whole offer better price to book and price to earnings values than developed markets.  However, not all emerging markets offer good value at this time.

Keppler wrote:  After a strong performance last year, emerging markets equities have continued to perform well so far in 2017.  Even after the superior returns, the emerging markets equities asset class is still undervalued by 23 % compared with the MSCI World Index. Furthermore, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by an additional 17 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by a whopping 37 % versus the MSCI World Index.

Eleven merging markets offer good value, and they offer much better fundamental price to book, price to earning and dividend yield values.

Keppler notes that “Due  to  liquidity issues  and  geopolitical  risks,  we  are  assigning  lower  than  equal  weights  to  smaller  markets  in  the portfolios we advise.”

Our Pi course recommends that a general policy of investing 20% to 30% of a good value portfolio in good value emerging markets, subject to each person’s investment position and needs.

The US dollar has risen near or over 30% versus the euro, the British pound and Japanese yen since 2008.  This strength is an economic time bomb.  We can take advantage of this distortion when we build our investment shelters out of value.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart pricedingold.com

(2) www.crfb.org/papers/cost-rising-interest-rates

(3) Wall Street Journal: Obamas debt interest bomb

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership  at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

Do Your Feel Comfort With a 20,000+ Dow?


The Dow has dropped a bit in recent days but do you feel comfortable with a Dow in the 20,000 range?

I recently answered that question when I spoke at a seminar in Tampa hosted by ENR Asset Management.  I have attached a portion of the presentation I made.

Here is the 44 minute presentation I made at the seminar.

The balance of the presentation is available to Pi subscribers.

Details on how to subscribe are below.

Gary

When Too Big To Fail Is Too Small

Our world turned upside down when, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stock prices plummet and the earnings on their safe savings collapse to zero return.  That  financial ruin was created very much in part by banks that were “Too Big to Fail”.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that can create a greater economic landslide.  There are numerous scandals at US and overseas big banks.  These calamities can make the safety net of “Too Big to Fail”, too small.  The disintegration that ensues could ruin average investors in three ways.

The risk is systemic because the bigger the bank, the more corrupt it seems to be.  This makes sense.  These banks have little to lose.  Why not cheat and take risks?  When fraud and speculation fail, the bank is bailed out by taxpayers.  No one, except the customer, gets too badly harmed.

Wells Fargo is an example.  Even after new regulations and backups were put in place after 2009, this entire organization continued to treat clients with complete disdain.

Here are some of the risks.

First, banks will have more opportunity to cheat because of increased stock market turmoil.  Every part of the US stock market has reached an all time high.  Global stock market volatility has also picked up.  The world is in a period of technological, political and economic transformation.  None of the old rules are as certain as they used to be.  Nothing makes markets shakier than the unknown.

Second, the new administration will reduce bank regulations.  Reduced regulations are good for business but big overseas banks have especially taken advantage of investors and home owners.  Foreign big banks have acted with impunity and need to be regulated.

Third, we’ll see rising interest rates.  Banks will raise interest rates as fast as they can.  The key to bank profitability is “Net Interest Margin”, the difference between the rate banks pay for deposits and money and what they charge for loans.   When interest rates collapsed in the late 2000s, banks made extra profit one time.  Their securities portfolios rose, loan defaults slowed and the cost of deposits fell.  Yet over time as new loans brought lower yields and the one-time boosts were gone, the lower interest rates squeezed bank profit margins.

The government and the Fed will want higher rates to avoid runaway inflation.  This will strengthen the US dollar short term but hurt the US stock market and the dollar in the long run.

The rising interest rates will be accompanied by inflation.  The government and the Fed do not want inflation but they will create it anyway.  They will spend more and reduce tax that increases US debt financed by savings from Europe, China and Japan.  Currently, America’s gross debt is more than $19 trillion, or 105 percent of GDP.  This has been sustainable in recent years because interest rates have been at historic lows.  As rates rise from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019, government interest payments will more than triple from $250 billion in 2016 to more than $800 billion in 2026.  By 2030, interest alone will represent over 14 percent of the federal budget.  If interest rates rise even higher,  Federal payments will be even greater—a one percentage point increase costs the country an additional staggering $1.6 trillion over a decade.  If interest rates returned to the record-high levels of the 1980s, the country would pay $6 trillion more in interest alone.

This debt will cause the US dollar to fall.

Here are three steps to take that can protect your investments in this scenario. 

Protection #1: Avoid Too Big to Fail Banks.  When you use a global bank, you are not using just one institution.  You are dealing with a big business that owns multiple banks in different regions.  This has costly implications for how far the bank’s equity goes, and how small safe the particular bank you choose really is.  Plus banks with two or more sub banks have more ways to take advantage of investors.  For example, one division of a bank can be recommending an investment to customers while having another unit in another country sell the investment short.  The bank makes money in three ways: creating the investment, selling the investment to customers and selling it short when the investment implodes.

Use local community banks where you can know your bankers, what they are doing and where their reputations are their most important asset.

Protection #2:  Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether you like to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Invest in a diversified portfolio based on fundamental value.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches  three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

The Spring 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Emerging Markets”

Investing in this broad spectrum of good value does not mean that profits will come over night.  Often markets remain distorted for extended periods of time.

History shows, though, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

This tactic is a simple, easy and low cost way to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

The third tool Pi provides is a way to spot ideal position speculations to use sparingly to enhance performance with greater risk.

Protection #3:   Spot Distortions that Create Ideal Condition for Speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies ion a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

In 2015 Pi recommended speculating in silver because of a dip in the price of silver.   We sent Pi subscribers a report entitled Silver Dip 2015.   That tactic returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.

In 2017 Platinum speculation is even better.

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written and is available to Pi subscribers to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Why Vary Your News?


Here is how to not be exceptional.   “May you live in interesting times?” could be a Chinese curse, but one of the greatest spices in life is anticipation.  Where would we be without the things we look forward to?  Yes, we can be and should be happy in the here and now, but only by accepting the mysteries of life as they unfold with acceptance and joy.

Listen to only what you want to hear or what is easy and not challenging are likely ways to stagnate and become part of the norm.  Letting someone else decide what you should hear for their benefit and not yours is a certain way to become part of the norm.  When we are normal in a sick society, it means we are sick!

gary scott

I have this program on my desktop to broaden my information horizons.

Most of us want the profits from our investing, the results from our business and really our lives to be extraordinary.   Proof of this fact?  The bumper sticker “My child is an honor student”.

A Scientific American article “The psychology of Social” adds more scientific evidence when it says:  Nobel Laureate economist, John Harsanyi, said that “apart from economic payoffs, social status seems to be the most important incentive and motivating force of social behavior.” The more noticeable status disparities are, the more concerned with status people become, and the  differences between the haves and have-nots have been extremely pronounced during the economic recession of recent years.”

Yet a growing fundamental of life that most of us are using reduces the odds that we’ll have anything except results that are ordinary and mundane.

Paths to fame and fortune are built on ordinary.  Spotting distortions that create trends allows us to see where and when the thundering herd is wrong.  Spotting imbalance allows us to beat competition and invest in or offer in business things that are most needed (and valuable) while the majority deal instead in the low cost middle ground.

When others control what we read and hear, our intellect, experience  and wisdom are dimmed.  When we let algorithms choose what in-formation we view based on our past activity, we become lost in the crowd.  The input we read, listen to and watch may seem interesting because smart people have figured out how to define our tastes.  But the spice of our own interests is easily the ultimate blandness created by extreme mediocrity.

Algorithms are simply computer programs that calculate what is likely we’ll like based on the norm.  Algorithms are all about average, normal, mediocre, common, humdrum, middling.  Ho hum.

We reduce the odds of having anything exceptional or extraordinary when we let a computer program determine what we get to hear and see.

Yet there are teams of really smart people, almost everywhere,  working on ways to figure us out and direct us to see and hear what is in their best interests, not ours.  These controllers of our information are dictated by money and profit, theirs, not what is best for us.

Algorithms make it easy to miss what’s really important.   Revenue dictates the editorial decisions of almost everything.  Numbers are so important that most media continually decide which news is most likely to attract readers rather than which news is most important.

Take, for example, the Wall Street Journal.  This is a good ethical publication though we have to remember that it is owned by the Rupert Murdoch organization, the same people who own Fox News.  They publish three editions- Asia, Europe and the USA.  I take all three because even the finest institutions publish the news they think will sell, not those which are most vital.

For example right now, the mainstream media are a bit caught up with news about the current US government administration.  This is hot news in the US.  They consequently ignore some really important news.

Here is a good example of how this can cause us to miss important news.  Recently I was very interested in the discovery of a new type of matter called “Time Crystals”.  I picked this up in my early morning read of the Wall Street Journal.

The article said (underline is mine)  In regular crystals—an ice cube or a diamond, for instance—atoms are arranged in a repeating spatial pattern.  In time crystals, patterns repeat in time instead of in space.

The research is early stage, but “anytime you discover a new phase of matter, it opens doors to new theories and potential applications,” said Chetan Nayak, a principal researcher.

The time crystals also maintain quantum coherence, or synchrony between units, according to the studies. That could ultimately be important for building quantum machines, scientists said.

Wow, a new form of matter!  This could be really, really huge, bigger than radio, bigger than electricity, bigger than cars, bigger than the internet.  Maybe not, but now I know so I can research and watch and learn this huge revelation in our fascinating world of science.

But this incredible revelation was not in the Wall Street Journal’s US edition.

Instead there was an an article headlined: “Ivanka Trump’s Landlord Is a Chilean Billionaire Suing the U.S. Government”

I don’t think I need to say more.

What to do?

There is little we can do to escape the marketing decisions that publications make as to which news will be broadcast where we are.   There is not much we can do to escape the judgements of algorithms when we use broadband.   Here are several really simple steps we can take to broaden our information horizons.

First, subscribe to publications (in print or online) where the subscribers (not the information) are in different parts of the world.   As mentioned, I take three editions of the Wall Street Journal.  Plus I had a program created (shown above) for my desktop  that gives me one click links to publications where the subscribers are in different places, countries, regions and continents.

Second, when it comes to investing, I rely on mathematically based financial information news to find good value instead of the economic conjecture that is in almost all the news.   I track three sources of financial thinking at ENR Asset Management, Tradestops and Keppler Asset Management to find conclusions about value created by distortions and trends.  See more about these sources below.

Third, subscribe to varied information, that interests you and does not.  For example, I subscribe to blogs about gardening and growing food, water, weather, toys (I have no interest really), stocks, high fashion cloths (again no interest at all), vision, and scientific advances.   I continually shift the mix and open and click through sites I have no interest in and do not read.  This befuddles the algorithms and increases the odds that the information that flows to me will be random… like life.

This brings a delight of unplanned, impromptu, unbidden data flowing to me.  Like the gurgle of a murmuring creak, this erratic stream adds serendipity into the brook of information that expands my thinking and who I am.   Life is a walk along a random path.  Loosening the restrictions on what we learn allows the flukes, the times when we have lucky breaks by stumbling upon the unexpected to fall in place so displays of pure dumb luck can grace our lives.

The marketing geniuses that run the advertising universe online and in print rely on patterns.  They want to fit you into a mold.  When you break the average cast and let the grander designs of nature lead us, we gain freedom and independence of thought and can enjoy the frightful delight of evolution in our world.

Gary

(1) www.scientificamerican.com:  The psychology of social

How Fake News Can Make You Rich

Fake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy.  But their is a silver lining in phony information.  The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.

Let me explain why…

Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.   This is a global investing fact.  The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news.   In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash.  The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.

Consider these facts.  The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011.  The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.  A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown.  By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy.  Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.

The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.

The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US.  The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016.  The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar.  This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA.  This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years.  This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.

There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade.  America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.   Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.

Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead.  Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs  that compare their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.

The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.

The course teaches:

  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.

Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. 

Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops.  Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Borrow Low and Deposit High.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Never run out of money.  Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.   Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

In this way we get to learn together.  Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi.  My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.

The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

Learn Low Cost Trading

Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs.  One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing.  The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.

In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis. 

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the three reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

How to Price Gold and Silver


What is the real value of gold?  Everyone should have a holding in precious metals, but as an investor who started accumulating (and speculating in) gold almost 50 years ago, I have learned (often the hard way) that precious metals should only be accumulated when their price makes them a good value.

This begs the question, “When does gold’s price represent good value?”   Today I am sending you a deep analysis, based on this 50 years of experience, of gold’s pricing in terms of inflation that helps answer this question.   This research is part of a $39.99 report, but I am sending it to you free and without obligation.

gold

Cuban 1/10th ounce gold coins.

A collapsing US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth.  Yet there are many signs that the greenback’s strength is in serious jeopardy. 

One frightening statistic is the $502.25 billion trade deficit that the US logged in 2016.  This is the largest deficit in years.  Many factors such as growing federal budget deficits and low national savings mean that trade deficits are likely to widen even more.

The growing federal budget deficits also increase the national debt.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow is likely to come back down.  National debt probably will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and according to the Wall Street Journal, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt we are looking at is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790 but does not include state and local debt.

And, it doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.

And, these dreadful numbers do not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Federal National Debt per person is about $60,923.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!

How can America pay this back?  The answer is they cannot.  Payback however actually does not matter.  No one expects the US to pay back their debt.

Investors do expect the US to pay interest on its debt and this is where a big really problem looms…  in rising national debt service During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.  The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to  a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

This is why investors need to own gold and precious metals.  However because metals are commodities and markets fluctuate for many reasons,  gold is not always a good value.

Good value investors look for “ideal conditions” before they invest long term in gold because there are times when a rare distortion in gold’s pricing occurs and the price drops to a point (that history has shown) where it will “almost always” rise.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is risk that a basic fundamental has changed and the distortion will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.  There is always risk.  Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why we should always seek a price that represents good value.

The way to look for Gold’s ideal price is to compare it to inflation.  

This is not as easy as it would seem because inflation is hard to define.  Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is also difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce before and at the end of WWII and this fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.   This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real the price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors distort the accuracy of the answer to… “How much is gold really worth now?”  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and costs of living.

First we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times.  The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of this precious metals in 1942 to buy a car, now you could do it.  A house maybe not, but the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold/cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times as well.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage 16 times.  Bread 21 times.  Sugar 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for a Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  That’s a question for another time.

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued at a price of $1,225.   If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225 it is likely a fair value, priced about where it should be in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance, according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above,  prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.  Gold is a fair value at around $1,225.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.  Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  The the inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we get perhaps a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index.

inflation

In this comparison gold’s actual price is almost the same as its adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225.  This is the premise we use in our good value investing course Pi.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential draw downs, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times.  They also remind us not to catch a gold fever when we read claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  Eventually the huge American debt will fire up inflation again and that will eventually turn into mega inflation.  Then gold prices may shoot that high.  In the interim whenever gold drops below $1,225, its probably a good value and investors who accumulate below that price will do well.

There are other ways to cash in on precious metals.  One approach is to keep an eye on the Gold Silver ratio.  When the Gold Silver Ratio reaches 80 and gold is at or below $1,225 a speculation in silver is most likely to be a good value.

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way.   The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

silver

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

There are numerous ways to invest in gold and silver, as a short term speculation for quick profit or for long term accumulation to combat the fall of the dollar or whatever currency you hold.   America is not the only country with an overvalued currency.  Whichever approach you choose, if you apply these value principles,  your odds of increasing profit and avoiding serious loss improve.

Gary

Why Financial News?


A great deal of economic news is opinion, conjuncture or based on statistics that are often falsified or misconstrued.   Plus the news we see is prejudiced by what commerce thinks we want to see.

Advertising revenue is the driving source of news.  Audience determines ad rates and ad rates determine profits so all the news is aimed at attracting readers, not necessarily informing them.

Plus a lot of economic news is unreliable, or so unusable that it will just waste our time.

Let’s look at an example of a very recent economic news about the price of gold and the US dollar.

gold chart

30 day gold chart from Kitco showing dollar price of gold from Feb 22 to March 1, 2017. (1)

A February 24, Wall Street Journal article said “Dollar Edges Higher With Trump Speech Looming” (2).

Then  the Wall Street Journal article of  February 25, 2017, says “Gold rises as dollar falls” (3) said:  “Gold prices rose to their highest level in 3½ months Friday, lifted by dovish expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases and political uncertainty in the U.S. and abroad.”

The Kitco gold chart above shows that yes gold did rise and fall, but the information was basically useless.  Gold’s price (in dollars) was falling when the Journal suggested it was rising and on February 25th gold’s price was falling when the Journal said it was rising.

More importantly the rising and falling was nominal.  Only huge leveraged traders could have earned more than the cost of trading gold that week.  Overall, for the week, the price of gold had a blip and then ended almost exactly where it began.

To have read this economic news was a waste of time.  Even worse, to have acted on what was written would have been a waste of money.

We need to use mathematically based financial news to make investment decisions.

The excerpt from our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) outlines how investors use the Pi strategy in up to seven layers of tactics based around Financial News.

Pi Tactic #1:  Determine purpose of investing and use math to reveal good value in stock markets around the world.

Pi Tactic #2:  Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3:  Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy, sell or hold these good value markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with “ideal conditions”.

Pi Tactic  #6:  Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

Here is another excerpt from the course that shows how to use math to determine “ideal conditions” for the price of gold.  The mathematical ratio to work with for gold is its price in relation to inflation.  The goal is not to determine if it will go up or down in the short term.  Gold’s price will rise and fall, sometimes too much, sometimes not enough.  When investors have a value line to determine when the price is too low, then accumulating gold for the long term increases the odds of profit.  This excerpt shows how Pi determines the value of gold.

#1:  Gold price to inflation.  This is perhaps the most speculative of the ratios since a meaningful inflation rate is hard to define. Statistics can be misleading.  In the Silver Dip Report 2017 there is an analysis of inflation that shows the median house price has increased 49 times but the average American house has changed greatly since 1944.

Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is also difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce at the end of WWII.  The fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.  This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors can distort the accuracy of the picture. How much is gold really worth now?  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and cost of living.

First, we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times. The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car, you could do it.  A house maybe not, but again the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage:  16 times.  Bread:  21 times.  Sugar: 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee:  11 times.  Eggs: 13 times increase.  Milk: 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  That’s a question for another time.

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued.  If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225, it is likely at a fair value, about where it should be priced in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance, according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above, prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However, because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.

Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand, gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  Then the inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However, since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we perhaps have a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index from 2015 till now.

inflation

In this comparison, gold’s actual price is almost the same as its adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225.  This is the premise we use at Pi.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential drawdowns, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times. They also remind us not to catch gold fever when we read claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  Unless inflation turns into mega inflation.

We are living in a high tide of news.  News can flood our every waking minute if we let it.  When it comes to investing, if we cut out the economic news and rely on mathematically based financial news instead, we gain time and reduce the frantic nature of our modern world.  This can reduce investment trading costs, help ease the behavior gap most investors suffer.  Turning off the economic news makes life less stressful and more comfortable and profitable as well.

Gary

(1) Kitco gold charts

(2)  www.wsj.com/articles/dollar edges higher with Trump speech looming

(3) www.wsj.com: Gold rises as dollar falls

How Fake News Can Make You Rich

Fake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy.  But their is a silver lining in phony information.  The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.

Let me explain why…

Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.   This is a global investing fact.  The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news.   In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash.  The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.

Consider these facts.  The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011.  The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.  A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown.  By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy.  Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.

The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.

The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US.  The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016.  The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar.  This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA.  This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years.  This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.

There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade.  America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.   Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.

Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead.  Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs  that compare their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.

The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.

The course teaches:

  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.

Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. 

Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops.  Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Borrow Low and Deposit High.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Never run out of money.  Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.   Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

In this way we get to learn together.  Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi.  My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.

The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

Learn Low Cost Trading

Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs.  One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing.  The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.

In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis. 

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the three reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary