Tag Archive | "telecommunications;"

Ecuador, Organic – Cheese & Wine III


This series, on Ecuador & organic wine and cheese, shows how big problems create big opportunities.

ecuador-wine and cheese

There is wine and cheese opportunity in Ashe County, North Carolina too…

This is the third message in this series on Ecuador and business opportunity in wine and cheese.  See the first message at Ecuador organic cheese and wine. The second article in the series is at Ecuador organic wine and cheese.

The series began with this point:

We are enjoying a quantum shift and the way we work, live, invest and do business will never be as before.

Governments globally are trying to slow this needed economic transition and their stimulation efforts will most likely cause the loss of purchasing power in most currencies… global inflation.

The best ways to gain opportunity in this scenario is to own real estate, commodities, stocks and your own business.

The greatest asset we can have in the economic era ahead is an ability to serve… to produce a product or service that adapts to the new ways.

Do what you love!

Many of us cannot stop working… by circumstance or choice so why not do something we enjoy… live a life we like that pays its way.

Here are excerpts from a USA today article “Mortgage crisis robbing seniors of golden years” by Stephanie Armour  (link to the full article is at the end of this message).

The worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has slashed home values and triggered an unprecedented surge in foreclosures across the nation. It’s also taking an especially harsh toll on an often overlooked demographic: seniors who are retired or nearly so.

This population is being hit on all fronts. More than 600,000 seniors are delinquent or in foreclosure, according to AARP. A separate report by AARP found that 25.5 million seniors ages 50 and older have a mortgage. Unlike younger people, many are on fixed incomes and lack the money or job opportunities to catch up on payments when they fall behind.

Even those who own their homes free and clear are finding they can’t rely on equity as a retirement nest egg because home values have dropped severely, especially in retirement-rich areas such as Florida, Nevada and California.

Some seniors who had planned to sell their homes and move into retirement communities have had to postpone their plans because they can’t afford to take a loss on the sale of their current homes. Some older homeowners had been so confident that rising home values would provide retirement wealth that they neglected to save.

Now they face their final years with a dearth of financial resources to draw on. Thirty-six percent of workers ages 55 and older say the total value of their household’s savings and investments — excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans — is less than $25,000, according to the Employee

Many others share his plight. Americans 50 and older represent nearly 30% of all delinquencies and foreclosures, according to an AARP analysis released in September.

The analysis found that more than 684,000 seniors 50 and older were delinquent on their mortgages or in foreclosure. Among those, nearly 50,000 were in foreclosure or had lost their homes.

The impact of subprime lending also has fallen disproportionately on those 50 and older.

Older Americans with subprime first mortgages — those given to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit — are nearly 17 times more likely to be in foreclosure than Americans of the same age with prime loans, according to AARP. For those under 50, the comparable multiple is about 13.

This whole group is going to be hugely dependent on Social Security, and people don’t fully appreciate the magnitude of the problem.

Many younger readers I talk with feel that this is not just a boomer problem.  The generations behind the boomers face educating their children, rising insurance and even less likelihood that Social Security will be meaningful.

Yet many readers write and say they would like a lifestyle like Merri’s and mine… cool natural life in the Blue Ridge during the summer… wonderful spring time Andean weather during the winter.

If you love wine… cheese coffee and organic, here is an idea.

Parts one and two of this series looked at ideas for organic wine and cheese in Ecuador. (The Cotacachi area has great organic coffee too.)

So does Ashe country North Carolina… and there is a special opportunity now.

Somehow through fate wherever Merri and I move… no matter how far into the wild, espresso cafes follow.  When we moved to Naples, Florida… there were none.  Then they came and we left to West Jefferson and Ashe County.  There was certainly no espresso shops there… when we arrived.

Not long after Bohemia Cafe and Art Gallery opened in town… great coffee… excellent cappuccino.   Soon after Back Street Cafe opened with an Espresso machine as well.

ecuador-wine and cheese

However I never expected a cafe with all the accouterments of Continental coffee to reach Lansing, North Carolina. After all Lansing only has a population of 192 people.

Yet it did.   Anne’s Place.

ecuador-wine-cheese

At Lansing’s four corners.  It’s…

ecuador-wine and cheese

a really great continental cafe in the middle of the woods!

ecuador-wine and cheese

Merri and I rushed in the minute it opened.. actually we were the first customers.  We were so surprised over the beauty, care and thoughtfulness of the cafe.  It rivaled anything we ever had in all our years in London!

The cafe had been opened by Anne and Haskell McQuire.   Anne and Haskel are Ashe country natives who lived all over the world during Haskel’s career in the telecommunications field.

They retired back at home in Ashe and started an organic winery and this cafe.

Now for health reasons,  Anne’s Place is for sale.

Lansing is about seven miles  from West Jefferson and 20 minutes from our farm. This is a really small mountain town and this coffee shop offers an opportunity to live in a low stress environment, with fresh air, clean water and friendly neighbors.

Anne and Haskell did a really great renovation inside and out. They replaced the roof, plumbing, electrical system, put in a new hardwood floor and restored the old tin ceiling.  They added a bathroom and painted everything top to bottom.

This is a great looking and very smart place…beautifully done.

ecuador-wine and cheese

and we saw that soon after it opened the place was hoppin’, plus…

ecuador-wine and cheese

There is a place to live upstairs.

ecuador-wine and cheese

This is a nice opportunity for someone who wants to live in nature and have a small shop… but there is more.

Lansing is awakening. Other new shops are coming in and the town just received a $130,000 grant to stimulate the local economy, plus…

ecuador-wine and cheese

The wine.

Anne and Haskel started both the coffee shop and a organic vineyard, New River Winery.

New River Winery is the first commercial winery in Ashe County, in Lansing near the headwaters of the New River, one of the oldest rivers in North America.

The winery was founded in 2005 as a cooperative venture of wine lovers with a common tie to Ashe County and the Blue Ridge High Country. Its production facility is in the historic old Lansing School.

They have a tasting outlet at Bohemia Gallery in West Jefferson.

Currently the winery procures grapes from two local sources, one of which is a certified organic farm.

Yet are we forgetting the cheese?  Not a bit.

Imagine this, Merri and I live in two really remote places.   Both have great organic wine, coffee and… yes cheese.

The winery’s second retail outlet, is Ashe Cheese Factory also in West Jefferson.

ecuador-wine-cheese

Ashe County Cheese is North Carolina’s oldest cheese plant, and has been producing quality cheese since 1930.

ecuador-wine-cheese

When I talked to Anne and Haskel about the coffee shop sale, I had one question… “Could Anne’s Place be a distributor for new River Winery as well?”

“Yes, of course” was the reply.

There you have it.. . ideas on business with organic coffee, cheese and wine…in Ecuador and North Carolina… deep in the woods… fresh air… pure water… agriculture and a low stress pace.

Perhaps one of these ideas will create a helpful spark in you for a lifetsyle and business you love in Ecuador, North Carolina or both!

For more information on Anne’s Place for sale contact Haskell McGuire at mcguireh@skybest.com

Gary

Join us for our upcoming courses in North Carolina and Ecuador that show ways to earn income in this new economic era. We’ll visit Anne’s Place if it has not sold by then.

Learn how to earn with exports at our July 4-8  and Oct. 21-24  on our Ecuador Export Tour

Learn how to invest and do business globally at our International Business and investing courses.  Join me with Thomas Fischer and Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management and my webmaster David Cross.

In North Carolina July 24-26 and Oct. 9-11  IBEZ North Carolina

We’ll have a New River wine tasting at Bohemia Gallery as we did last year. here are delegates at that tasting.

ecuador-wine-cheese

Our North Carolina courses in 2009 will be conducted in the new…

ecuador-wine and cheese

West Jefferson Hampton Inn.

ecuador-wine and cheese

Just opening this June 2009 with very nice rooms and…

ecuador-wine and cheese

really great…

ecuador-wine and cheese

views. I took these from the hotel’s parking lot.

ecuador-wine and cheese

Plus the Hampton Inn is just down the road from the Ashe County Cheese Factory, Bohemia Gallery and 20 minutes from the New River Winery and Anne’s Place.

In Ecuador Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador

See  good value real estate in Ecuador.

ecuador-wine-cheese

Delegates visit the Cotacachi Ecuador Organic cheese factory.

July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

You can read the entire article Mortgage crisis robbing seniors of golden years here.

Bear Rally Tactics


The salvation for this bear market may be near.   See below how bear rally tactics can help you profit in the current economic downturn.

History suggests that we will not see a lasting bull until 2012…but one more bear market rally may provide an escape hatch for those who are caught with too many depressed shares. These tactics begin by understanding where the US economy and equity markets are in relation to thirty year cycles that seem to dominate the flow of mankind’s industrial productivity.

These cycles are not economic cycles.  They are cycles of human interaction, technology and productivity that drive the economy and hence the stock market. These cycles are intricately connected with new waves of productivity that grow from some great human platform of combat.  Struggles for survival in the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War (WWIII) super charged inventiveness that created new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and internet, etc.

Each new invention helped win a war. Then shifting the technology to domestic use after the war created a boom.

Each boom led to excess.

Each excess led to a correction…and viola here we are…in a correction again…at the correct time!   This downturn started almost exactly (1998), 16 years after the last boom began (1982)…which began after the last great human struggle called the Cold War.

This correction like its predecessors has enjoyed a number of bear market rallies. You can see this quite clearly, in the graph below, how each upward cycle rises after a war (postwar boom) and how the market then crashes before the next upcoming war.

We have been viewing this process via this chart at our site since it began and we can observe how the last bear market recovery ended around December 2007 in this update from yahoo.finance on Wednesday December 3, 2008. dow charts

The yahoo chart looks a little different because it is not dollar adjusted, but we can see a bear market pattern, beginning in 1998, similar to one that began in the 1920s and ran though the 1930s into the 1940s.

We see another bear from the mid 1960s that ran through through the 1970s in the early 1980s. The last bull market began in 1982 so it is significant when we see newspaper headlines like USA Today’s December 3, 2008 headline, Auto Sales Fall to 1982 Level. If car sales…stock market levels and economic signs are at their lowest level since the early 1980s, history suggests that the end of the current correction is heading our way….but not quite here yet.

This is why the portion of the Dow graph from 1920 to 1940 is of special interest to me. I see that the sharp 1929 contraction was too sharp. The real correct correction took place from 1929 to 1942 with a strong, last bear market rally from 1932 through 1936.

graph

Everything about this 30 year theory suggests that the bear market will not end until about 2012…and we need a serious human struggle and new technology before we see the next boom. Yet this same theory also suggests one last bear rally which may be a savior for baby boomers who would like to see their pensions and savings recover a bit before they retire.

The current bear trend began in 1998.  The 2005 to 2007 bear market rally led many investors astray. We are now in a late 1920s style market slide.

This has all been pretty predictable…which is why beginning August 2007 this site began recommending a reduction in equities and debt.

In September 2007, this site listed four important facts that affect most investors:

#1: They care too much about day to day volatility.

#2: They care too little about strategy.

#3: The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time.

#4: This short term process leaves too little time to analyze and forecast. We added seven suggestion then about of what to do when there is a market crisis.

#1: Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.

#2: Do not panic.

#3: Do not let feelings influence you too much.

#4: Add some restructuring stories to your portfolio.

#5: Know that a period of high returns will be followed by a period of low returns…and vice versa.

#6: Do not underexpose yourself for the long term.

#7: Risk is your friend or alibi for expecting higher returns. Take risk in good value!

The market outlook at this site then (Sept 2007) was:

#1: Expect moderately higher stock markets at the end of 2007.

#2: Earnings growth will slow further.

#3: Watch out for core inflation and GDP growth. Dramatically lower growth with high inflation is the signal to watch for.

This could create a recession, the worst enemy for equities. We have that recession now. Hopefully you have been following these ideas.  If so, you have been hurt less than most and now we should be thinking hard about a reentry into markets. There are some stunning values developing especially if we engage three bear market rally tactics now.

Bear Market Rally Tactic #1: Realize that some blue chip equities in old industries may see some sharp immediate gains…but are not the wave of the future. If you hold such shares…when they recover…take your profit if the shares begin to be sold at an unreasonable value.

For example, General Motors was a Blue Chip that spiked in the late 1970s bear market rally.  The internal combustion engine was a productivity technology that came out of WWI.  Selling GM in the $40 range in the late 70s was the smartest thing a person could have done. From then forward, if you take the dollar’s fall and inflation into account, these shares have been a bad value and poor investment.

gm-share-chart

The Blue Chips that could peak in this rally are WWII era firms..plastics…telecommunications…TV…computer (not internet)…fertilizers and such.

Dump them if you get a decent price.

Boomers especially will want to use such timing.  If you have to sell shares to for liquidity, sell these Blue Chips in old industries that are not likely to have a bright future ever again.

Boomers, hold your new era investments that have a bold future and can still rise a lot to provide your income later when you are in your 80s and 90s and 100s!

Bear Market Rally Tactic #2:  Watch for the next war or struggle and the technology that will emerge. The nature of the battle will have an impact on what technology might emerge. Last year I thought that the war could be in Iran. See why at  WWIV

There are other options. For example a December 2, 2008 CNN article said:

Terrorists are likely to use a weapon of mass destruction somewhere in the world in the next five years, a blue-ribbon panel assembled by Congress has concluded. They are more likely to use a biological weapon than a nuclear one — and the results could be devastating, the chairman of the commission told CNN. “The consequences of a biological attack are almost beyond comprehension. It would be 9/11 times 10 or a hundred in terms of the number of people who would be killed,” former Sen. Bob Graham said. He cited the flu virus that killed millions of people in 1918 as an example. “Today it is still in the laboratory, but if it should get out and into the hands of scientists who knew how to use it for a violent purpose, we could have multiple times the 40 million people who were killed 100 years ago,” he said. Graham warned that such measures would be costly, but were necessary. “The leadership of this country and the world will have to decide how much of a priority … they place on avoiding the worst weapons in the world getting in the hands of the worst people in the world,” he said. “It is not going to be cheap. It is not going to be accomplished without some sacrifices. It won’t be accomplished without putting this issue ahead of some other competing national and international goals. But I think our safety and security depend upon doing so,” he added. It cited testimony before the commission from former Sen. Sam Nunn, who said that the “risk of a nuclear weapon being used today is growing, not receding.” The report recommends a range of measures, including increased security and awareness at biological research labs and strengthening international treaties against the spread of biological and nuclear weapons. “Many biological pathogens and nuclear materials around the world are poorly secured — and thus vulnerable to theft by those who would put these materials to harmful use, or would sell them on the black market to potential terrorists,” the report warned. The commission expressed particular concern about the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, and about Pakistan, which it described as “the intersection of nuclear weapons and terrorism. While observing that Pakistan is a U.S. ally, the report said, “the next terrorist attack against the United States is likely to originate from within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas” in Pakistan. The tribal areas lie in northwest Pakistan where the government exerts little control; the United States says it is a haven for militants from both Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. Congress created the commission to investigate and report on WMD and terrorism in line with a recommendation from the 9/11 Commission, which compiled a report on the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. Commissioners heard testimony from more than 250 experts from around the world over the course of their six-month investigation.

This is what it takes…a struggle where all concepts of return on investment go out the window….a no holds barred struggle that must be won. This type of endeavor breaks molds…urges thinking outside the box and changes the way humanity thinks, lives, works and interacts.

The struggle could be against global warming. This would be good, man against his bad lifestyle habits instead of man versus man. What will that struggle and new technology be?

None of us know for sure since we are all afflicted with that human failing of only being able to see the immediate future and (pretty badly) the past.

Yet being aware and watching for both (the struggle and technology) increases the odds of spotting them early and helping you venture into the next winners…that are the ones that can really grow over the next 10…20 and 30 years.

Bear Market Rally Tactic #3: Treat new era investments as high risk venture investments. Buy a little of several hoping to catch the winner.

In the last era for example, as mentioned, computers were the deal…so perhaps you invested a bit in shares of Data General…one of the first minicomputer firms from the late 1960s that due to a series of missteps in the 1980s, including missing the advance of microcomputers led to its decline and demise.

Plus maybe you invested in a bit of Sperry Univac…still in business as UNISYS CORP but only trading at .47 cents a share. Plus perhaps you purchased a bit of  Commodore Business Machines (big in the 80s…bankrupt in the 90s).

And you rounded your diversification by investing in a small company formed by two guys who were writing a program for Ed Robertson and his Altair computer (a first personal computer…in a kit).  Roberts said he would buy the program if he could see it running on the Altair but the programmers didn’t actually have the programs written.  They immediately set out to write them. It took about six weeks and worked.  Those programmers founded a small company in Albuquerque and later moved to the Seattle area.  Their names… Bill Gates and Paul Allen. The company…Microsoft.  Ahhh.

You may have chosen three losers out of four…but the name of the game in venture investing is the huge run up you get when you select a winner. Hold your winners and sell your losers.

We are in an era that we as investors have never seen before.  I began global investing in 1968 and this is the worst correction in those 41 years. This means we have greater opportunity for finding good value then we have had for four decades.

Use the seven suggestions above for investing in a market crisis….especially, take risk in good value!  Watch for the bear market rally and use the three bear market rally tactics to take this risk as YOU START LOOKING FOR VALUE NOW.

Gary

You can get regular quotes on multi currency shares that could do well in a bear market rally from Jyske Bank and Jyske Global Asset Management.

For more details on this, US investors should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Take a hike with me in the warm Cotacachi winter’s sun.

cotacachi-sun

See how to attend two or three connected courses for great savings.

Stroll the sunny Ecuador beach this winter.

Ecuador beach

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course

Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us for great fresh Ecuador seafood!

Cotacachi-fish

Feb. 9-11 Beyond Logic

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

See Ecuador’s incredible scenery.

Cotacachi-fish

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition

March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Share some time with Ecuador’s friendly people.

San Clemente-fishermen

Better still join us all year! See how to attend our 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions in 2009 FREE.