Posted on 04 June 2010.
Smalltown USA Ashe County offers many living and business benefits as well as great real estate value. See why below.
Merri’s and my business has thrived for many years because we try to avoid financial fashion and always look ahead for value instead.
See why this home on 47.8 acres offers such good value.
This search for value has led us to the long term focus we have had on three important trends… the falling USA dollar… investing business and living outside the USA and Smalltown USA.
Back in 2005 way before the real estate crash our site looked at five factors that suggested we would see growth in Small Town USA.
Smalltown USA Value Factor #1: Some parts of America were growing increasingly overvalued. Our 2005 message warned about Naples, Florida (where homes were 84% overvalued). We also warned about Merced, Ca. 76.7%; Salinas, Ca. 74.8%; Port St. Lucie, Fl., 72.2%; and Stockton, Ca., 72.0%. We reviewed how 41 of the 65 significantly overvalued markets were in California and Florida.
That message also looked at how the most undervalued markets were in small towns in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and Alabama.
Smalltown Value Factor #2: One of the largest demographic groups in history (Baby Boomers) about to retire.
Smalltown Value Factor #3: A majority of boomers plan to move when they retire and a majority of the movers plan to settle in small towns 25 or 30 miles from where they now live.
Smalltown Value Factor #4: Boomer surveys show that most Boomers plan to keep working part time when they retire.
Smalltown Value Factor #5: Technology now makes it easier than every before for these boomers to move to small towns and continue to work part time.
Smalltown Value Factor #6: There is a large decline in the purchasing power of corporate pensions.
Smalltown Value Factor #7: The loss of Social Security and the US dollar’s purchasing power will force many boomers to move to paces where the cost of living is less expansive.
In other words, Small Town USA offered good value and the changes that demand would grow was strong. This fact remains in place today.
Take for example Ashe County, North Carolina where Merri and I live part of the year.
As of December 2009 the cost of living index in Ashe County was very low 83.2 compared to the U.S. average of 100.
Here are some demographic facts about Ashe County.
Industries providing employment: Manufacturing (26.7%), Educational,health and social services (16.2%), Construction (10.9%), Retail trade (10.3%).
Type of workers:
• Private wage or salary: 75%
• Government: 13%
• Self-employed, not incorporated: 11%
• Unpaid family work: 1%
Races in Ashe County, North Carolina:
• White Non-Hispanic (96.1%)
• Hispanic (2.4%)
• Other race (1.1%)
• Black (0.7%)
• American Indian (0.6%)
• Two or more races (0.6%)
(Total can be greater than 100% because Hispanics could be counted in other races)
Median resident age:
North Carolina median age:
Plus between the recession and the cold winter this year real estate has really dropped in price as this chart shows.
There are some very interesting values in this part of the Blue Ridge.
Take for example this 47+ Acre mountain tract with 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home (shown above) bordered by the Jefferson National Forest.
Blue Ridge Mountains are in sight. This is a very private mountain cabin.
This mountain cabin has wood floors, gas log fireplace, covered wrap porch and full walk-out lower level with expansion potential.
This is an almost new cabin with all wood interior 2-bedrooms, bath and great room on the main level.
The great room, dining area and kitchen are placed in an energy-efficient cluster.
An efficiently designed step saving kitchen with ample storage and work space is perfect for the chef who does not want to spend coveted time in the mountains toiling in the kitchen.
There are two bedrooms and a full bath on the main level.
A full partially finished lower level features expansion potential with a multipurpose room that can be used for additional sleeping space and a game room area with lots of storage space.
A large covered wrap porch is ideal for outdoor entertaining and relaxing with the views with the sounds of Nature all around.
Total privacy, views and lots of room for outdoor entertaining.
Extending the dining experience outdoors is this detached screened picnic shelter where you can enjoy the view while entertaining friends and family.
In addition to the picnic shelter, this second building will work nicely as a workshop or garage.
Jefferson National Forest borders this 47.8 acre tract along one side and the back adding to the privacy. This tract was timbered a few years ago but young hardwoods and evergreens are already reaching for the sky.
Trails meander throughout the property providing excellent adventure, hiking and horseback riding opportunities to explore all that this unique mountain tract has to offer. Located with in the Mount Rogers Recreation Area, this would be perfect for horses.
There are multiple potential building sites with views.
There are also numerous natural mountain springs and streams.
The asking price is $239,500.
You can get details about the property above from Jeff Neal a Realtor/Broker/ABR at Ashe High Country Realty.
Jeff will be at our North Carolina Seminar this June 24 to 27 to answer questions about Blue Ridge real estate.
Merri and I feel great comfort having our farm in the Blue Ridge. This is the type of place where one could live through most economic and social disasters… plenty of good water…. fresh air and fuel… plus enough land and wildlife to provide food.
Yet we did not buy into Smalltown USA as protection from disaster. That is just frosting on the cake.
History suggests life will just get better and I am all for that and still want to be in the mountains during the summer where it is cool and filled with peace, quiet and beauty…. away from the maddening crowd.
Learn more about a great Ecuador grain for weight loss and better health without sacrifice here.
How We Can Serve You
Schedule 2015 Seminars and Courses
We conduct our Investment seminar at Jefferson Landing in Jefferson North Carolina.
Join Merri and me for all the courses and seminars that we’ll conduct to help you gain positive solutions to your economic, financial and lifestyle concerns.
Here is the courses we currently have scheduled in 2015.
Never Run Out of Money
Join Merri and me, Michael Keppler and Conrad Oertwig for our October 17-18 Quantum Wealth Seminar.
Share my 49 years of global investing experience. Learn how to fight inflation and gain profits using easy value investment portfolios and currency distortions.
For example at the 2012 October seminar it became obvious that the Japanese yen was overvalued.
That led me to post a note at this site “Multi Currency Sandwich” suggesting shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro.
What a ride! The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in one quarter. This rise was far higher than the skyrocketing Dow Jones Industrial average (red line in chart below).
Those who learned how to borrow yen and invest in the Dow Jones industrial average… earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5%… in three months.
US dollar versus yen and comparison to Dow Jones Industrial average chart from www.finance.yahoo.com. Click on chart to to enlarge.
That yen loan is not safe at this time. At the seminar we will look at the risk reward scenarios for numerous currencies to see which is likely to bring the greatest profit next. More importantly you learn how to continually monitor currency values after the seminar.
Learn why it now makes more sense to borrow (or short) pounds.
We conduct the seminar in October because September and October are important months for investing and also pose the greatest risk to our wealth.
A study by Michael Keppler shows that most profits in most major equity markets, is achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May.
Michael wrote: “Gary, We have done extensive research on seasonality and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. All the best to you and Merri. Michael”
Michael showed that over 30 Years, the Dow grew 8.16% overall.
There was 8.36% growth in the months November through April. There was 0.37 growth in the months May to October. $100 invested in the Dow grew to $848 overall over the 3o years.
$100 invested in the Dow grew to $1,067 if it were invested only in the months of November through April. $100 invested in the Dow dropped to $79 if it were invested only in the months of May to October.
Historically the worst months for stock markets are September and October. This week, the best chances for equity losses this year, have just begun. Think risk aversion now and think ahead for profit making in November.
We’ll be joined by Michael Keppler, one of the world’s foremost equity mathematical and statistical analyst. Between Michale and myself, we have almost 100 years of equity research experience. He will speak about time, asset allocation and how to determine good value markets.
Learn how to protect and increase your savings and wealth with easy to start, very slow trading, safe and secure, worry and stress free portfolios that provide proven long term profit potential. Avoid the ups and downs that stock markets will see in the months ahead.
As a run up to my 50th year of speaking and writing about savings and investments around the world I asked my mathematical and tax genius friends to share a weekend with us to cut through the fog of rapid change and show us ways to invest better than hedge fund managers.
Hedge Funds were the fashionable place to invest in the 1990s, but since then their performance has been falling.
However some hedge fund managers succeeded for one simple reason… experience. A Telegraph article “How can we avoid the next financial crisis? Urgently listen to those who foresaw this one” explains why a few managers succeeded, when it was said: It’s no coincidence that the biggest winners of the downturn – John Paulson, Paolo Pellegrini and Jeffrey Greene – were approaching 50 years of age. They retained vivid memories of past real-estate problems. Youth was a detriment to pulling off the greatest trade ever and preparing for the downturn.
The successful hedge fund investors succeeded where most failed because of their experience.
I’ll provide the 50 years of experience at the seminar. I have been through the rise of gold to over 800 an ounce (in the 1970s) and silver to $48. I experienced the stock market’s bear that began in 1968, the Black Monday crash in 1987 when the Dow had its biggest one day drop ever and the dotcom bubble as well as the collapse in 2008. I worked my way through the first dollar devaluation in 1971, the Plaza Accord arranged dollar collapse and two major downturns in the Japanese yen, plus invested through the 1970s, 1980s and late 2000 recessions.
We’ll share how these experiences prepare us for our investments now.
Michael Keppler provides the Math.
The idea of using math to find good value equity investments led me to ask mathematical analyst, Michael Keppler, to join us in the Blue Ridge for the seminar.
Michael is a brilliant mathematician. We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years. He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each stock market’s history. From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.
Red Lining Your Investments
According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of good value markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. His mathematical predictions have been eerily accurate as the red line below shows.
Each quarter Michael shares with me (and other professional investors) his “Total Return Predictions”.
Click on chart to enlarge.
This chart shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, he started in 1993. Keppler continually shows what his mathematical formulas predict for markets four years ahead. These numbers are based on mathematical relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years moving forward in monthly increments. In this way Keppler uses numbers to continually adjust to the ever-changing market norm.
Keppler’s chart includes two remarkable episodes. The first in the period when global equity markets peaked and crashed over a five-year period from 1997 to 2001. Keppler’s Equally-Weighted World Index predictions stayed above the upper forecast band and accurately predicted the recovery and how much global markets would rise.
The second remarkable period started in October 2008, when again Keppler’s forecasts accurately showed where markets would reach as they fell below the lower forecast band.
Imagine the extra profit professional investors have today when they invested in these depressed good value markets before they again rose.
Keppler’s projections now indicate that global markets are expected to rise from between 2.1% and 13.0 % in the next three to five years.
Learn about Keppler’s projections and about Asset Allocation from Michael Keppler in person at our Value Investing Seminar October 17 & 18 in Jefferson, North Carolina.
Our October seminar will be at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.
Enjoy the autumn leaf change and learn how to survive and prosper with value investments.
Jefferson leaf change view.
Learn amazing tax benefits as well. I have invited my tax expert, Conrad Oertwig, to join us.
Seven of tax secrets that Conrad will share include:
* How Dutch-treat entertainment allows you to deduct your own meals.
* How to entertain for business and help the charity of your choice because a charity sporting event produces double the deduction of a business meal.
* How one magic word can allow you to deduct your daily transportation costs between your home and another work location.
* How to earn an extra $11,425 by using antiques as office equipment.
* How to gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business.
* How to reduce tax by having a second office in the home.
* How to travel by cruise ship and deduct up to $680 a day.
Plucking common sense from the tax law is time consuming and difficult work. For more than 25 years, Conrad has gained great satisfaction by helping his clients extract tax dollars from the tax law. He has over 400 tax savings tips and will share some of the most important lessons at the seminar.
To help you get an early start on tax savings, I will send you Conrad’s report “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business” when you enroll in the seminar. I’ll also send you “The Silver Dip 2015” as soon as it is released.
Join Michael Keppler, Conrad Oertwig, Merri, and me, plus video presentations by Leslie Share, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer and Richard Smith. The “Value Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with value investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create profits by spotting multi currency and global equity cycles through good value mathematics.
Get “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax & The Silver Dip 2015”. Join us Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina. Enroll here $499. Couple $799.
Hear from other speakers via video. The seminar will include online presentations including:
One way to protect our wealth and freedom is to have a good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning so you can also be protected rather than hurt by the tax laws.
Leslie Share: How to use and benefit from US tax law living overseas and for wealth preservation.
Leslie has been our friend and adviser of more than 30 years, and I have asked him to speak to the seminar online at the October Value Investing seminar. Leslie is an attorney in Coral Gables, Florida who specializes in general, corporate and international taxation, estate and gift tax planning, internal revenue service matters at the agent and appeals level plus most important, he specializes in wealth preservation.
He has the highest possible Peer Review Rating by Martindale-Hubbell, Florida Super Lawyers and The Best Lawyers in America.
Leslie is the type of attorney who can help gain asset and wealth protection if you live in the US or abroad.
The best way for boomers to protect their wealth is with good value income producing shares. Not everyone can wait for their assets to grow. Many need investments that create income now.
Eric Roseman: How to select good value income producing shares.
I have worked with Eric for decades and use his ability to select good value income producing shares. Understanding the intrinsic value of any equity is an elusive concept, but one of the best ways to assess value is by looking at the income it generates. Eric is a master at sniffing out the shares that provide a good income now as well as potential appreciation later. Learn from his strategic ideas for current market conditions.
Richard Smith: How to overcome the behavior gap with Trailing Stops.
Dr. Richard Smith, founder and CEO of TradeStops. Richard earned a PhD in Math and Systems Science, and even he had to learn the hard way that it takes more than intelligence to win in the game of investing. He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed! With his background in mathematical theories of uncertainty combined with his own investing and trading experience, Dr. Smith understands risk management and how to use it as a self-directed investor to master the market.
Finally at the seminar I’ll review the 50 Golden Rules of Investing. Learn how to protect against shady investment advice, unreasonable and hidden fees. Learn how to protect yourself from your own emotions. Learn when it is best to buy shares and determine which type of share is best for you. Find out how to avoid the loss fear syndrome and stop getting caught by great sounding stories that can rob your wealth.
In 1986 I wrote a report called the Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.
Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce. As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986. Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986. Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.
Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The 12,000 pound loan purchased silver that rose to be worth $42,185.
The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound. So the 12,000 pound loan had purchased $18,600 of silver. The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver. The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating a $5,314 profit. So the profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.
This is why the “Silver Dip 2015” will be one of the seven portfolios, the most speculative, we will study at our October 17-18 Investment Seminar in Jefferson, North Carolina..
This is also why I am releasing a new “Silver Dip 2015” report. The same conditions are in place for gold and the Silver Dip looks at both speculations in silver and gold.
There is also another, much safer, once every 30 year opportunity that I have described in a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small good value investments. The mathematics behind the idea of this investment strategy are currently extraordinary. Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi- currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential than we have seen in over three decades.
Our Investing Seminars started 32 years ago when one of the best set of three currency and equity conditions ever existed. Over these decades, our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do. Yet in all those years, few times have conditions offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982. The Dow alone rose from 1,000 to 14,000 in that period.
Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!
Now three of the great economic conditions have returned.
Conditions have come together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s. The US dollar, the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s. Knowing these conditions and why they have merged and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.
Learn how to gain this potential (we’ll review three ways to accomplish this at the seminar) in the Keppler Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds). For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom. You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.
We review Country Index ETFs at the seminar and look at specific portfolios you can create to tap into these three economic conditions.
Share my 50 years of experience. Gain advice that is sterling as we head toward my golden anniversary of writing about saving, finance and investing. Our value investing seminars are filled with valuable information but we have fun and take time to relax and socialize as well.
We look forward to joining us this October.
Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina.
Join Michael Keppler, Conrad Oertwig, Merri and me. Enroll here $499. Couple $799.