Tag Archive | "Lira"

How to Make Money in the Multi Currency Era


The US and Ecuador property market offers a rare opportunity to make money in this multi currency era. Here is an excerpt from a recent multi currency update.

Two economic forces have come together to create extra special profits.

I know because the same  combination occurred in London during the late 1970s and allowed me to increase an investment eleven times in two years by buying property then.

Earlier in 1970 I had lived in London, England for a year, then moved to Hong Kong. During that time I also maintained a home outside of San Francisco, California.

This was a time of great inflation. My homes in California and in Hong Kong appreciated greatly. In the mid 1970s, when I moved from Hong Kong back to London, I noticed that London real estate was priced about the same as it had been in 1970. This puzzled me. Why had London property prices remained flat despite inflation?

On investigation, I learned that there had been a huge real estate crash in 1970 which continued to dampen real estate prices six years later despite the rampant global inflation. I felt this was a great distortion as European property prices had risen, but London prices had not. Yet London offered the best utility as the center of the English speaking world. This, to my way of thinking, created a huge distortion.

It’s late 1976. Britain faced  a sterling crisis. In less than two years the pound has fallen from $2.40 to $1.60. Investors had no faith in the British economy, or the government that ran it. The government’s budget was a mess.  Investors  were ditching the pound.

The plummeting pound pushed the economy to breaking point. Prime Minister Callaghan, in desperation borrowed as much as possible, £2.3 billion from the IMF.

At that time, the British pound collapsed to its lowest level ever (a pound per dollar for a short time) so the distortion widened. This meant in US dollar terms London property had dropped almost 50% while property in other major cities of the western world had increased in price by three or four times.

london-house

The house I bought was right next door and very similar to this house in Bedford Park, London W4.

This house in West London was 34,000 pounds, 9,000 pounds down (then $9,000).   I took a mortgage for 25,000 pounds ($25,000).  I lived in the house and three years later the pound had recovered to 2.2 dollars per pound plus London real estate had caught up with property in other major western centers. I sold the house for 115,000 pounds or $253,000 a profit of $244,000 on a $9,000 investment.

Now it’s the US dollar that is very low.

You will have seen articles something like the the September 7, 2009 Bloomberg article “Weak Dollar? Currency, at 10-Year Low, May Fall More” by Bo Nielsen.

An excerpt says: Anyone who says the dollar is weak after it fetched a record-low $1.3681 against the euro and the fewest pence against the pound in 25 years is expressing a euphemism.

The currency may decline at least another 10 percent by the end of 2008, say Jay Bryson, an economist at Wachovia Corp., and Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. The dollar has only fallen 3.4 percent in the past two years to a 10-year low, according to a Federal Reserve index that weighs trade with 38 countries including China, Mexico, Canada and countries in Europe. It tumbled 30 percent in the three years ended 1988.

“Dollar weakness will be broad-based and could last for years,” said Bryson, a global economist at Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia who previously analyzed currencies at the Federal Reserve.

Investors are dumping dollars, lured by higher returns elsewhere. The U.S. will grow more slowly than Europe for the first time since 2001 and Japan for the first time in 16 years, the IMF forecasts. The difference in yield between 10-year German bonds and Treasuries has shrunk to the smallest since 2004.

Those who read this site regularly or subscribe to our multi currency course know that I reported my personal portfolio and recommended getting out of the US dollar in February 2009. See that recommendation here.

I showed that my portfolio was 86% out of the greenback.

My liquid portfolio currency allocation was reported as Brazilian real  4%,
 Denmark kroner  33%
,  euro 31%
, British pound 10%
, Turkey lira 8%
, US$ 14%.

I also mentioned in February that I was going to start buying Florida real estate.

So Merri and I began looking and in our research found that there appears to be a hole in the market for Central Florida property selling in the million to $750,000 range.  There seems to be no buyers at all. We have been watching prices tumble hundreds of thousands.

We are viewing one property next week that started at $800K+. It just dropped $100,000 last week from $395,000 and is now down to $295,000.

This is about a 25% drop in that house’s price in six months. That’s pretty good!

Now look at what this means in depreciated dollar terms.

dollar-chart

Here is a chart of the euro to US dollar from yahoo.finance.com from February 2009 to September 10, 2009 when this was written.

In February a US dollar bought .80 euro so that house at $395,ooo cost 319,200 euro.  Now a US dollar buys about .68 euro so this house at $295,000 costs about 200,000 euro.

That is a drop in that house price of 37% in six months in terms of euro. That’s even better!

Here is the magic in this hidden, built-in profit.  For most of the market, the profit is hidden.  Most investors are not comparing currencies and real estate prices.  Yet these distortions will filter through. Eventually European investors…. or those like me who are holding currencies other than dollars will see this distortion and cash in.

I, and now you, just have an advantage because we are always looking at both markets… currency and real estate.

Ecuador Real Estate Cheaper as Well

This also creates better value on Ecuador real estate. Take for example one penthouse property I am selling at $139,000.

This is a perfect property for those who want peace… quiet…and instant access to miles of empty, warm Pacific beach.

ecuador beach rentals

This two room, top floor penthouse is at Palmazul and includes use of the the swimming pool, tennis courts… and spa.   You can dine here, one floor below.

ecuador beach rentals

The units are fully equipped… kitchen…

Ecuador beach rentals

with full size fridge.

Living room…

Ecuador beach rentals with a view…

Ecuador beach rentals leading…

Ecuador beach rentals to large private balconies…

Ecuador beach rentals with these views…

ecuador beach rentals

and sunsets to kill for.

ecuador beach rentals

Long walks on the beach… you can amble at low tide for ten miles and not see a soul.

ecuador-seminars

Luxury bathrooms with bathtub…

Ecuador beach rentals

and a king size bed with view and caressed by the ocean breeze.

Ecuador beach rentals

This unit would have cost 111,000 euro in February. Now the price has dropped to 94,500 euro… just from the dollar’s fall.

The US and Ecuador property markets offers a rare opportunity to make extra profit now because of hidden added value from the US dollar’s fall. History suggests that real estate is a real asset so its price rises as the currency its counted in falls.

These corrections take time because most property owners do not calculate their property in multi currency terms.  Those of us who watch this can gain extra profit now.

The article above is an excerpt from a recent Multi Currency update. Learn more about multi currency investing. Subscribe to our multi currency course.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to earn globally in many currencies.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business. This can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course at no added cost as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times.

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in our North Carolina or Ecuador International Business & Investing seminar in October or November all three courses, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Join us with Jyske Bank and my webmaster David Cross in West Jefferson North Carolina. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

Or head south to Ecuador!

October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Join us with Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management in Ecuador. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea. Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire articles:

Weak Dollar? Currency, at 10-Year Low, May Fall More

Dollar Is Near Lowest in Almost Year as Borrowing Costs Plunge

Multi Currency Predictions Feb. 2009


We made several multi currency predictions at our February 2009 International Investing & Business Course in Cotacachi, Ecuador. The investing and business portion concluded yesterday. We are now inspecting Ecuador property.

We used many approaches to process information about how markets and economies might move.

We viewed currencies at the technical level and saw that Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) had closed their British pound recommendation.

This is the fine detailed view… the technical end of investing,  Peter Laub of JGAM showed how JGAM had recommended investing in pounds at 1.3750 with a stop loss at 1.3700. Peter explained how the pound dropped to 1.3703 before rising to 1.4500.  JGAM took profit on the backslide to 1.4300.

We looked at economic fundamentals and discussed the February 10, 2009 New York Times article   “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. Hand”  by Edmund  Andrews and Stephen  Labaton  which said:

WASHINGTON — The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system, announced on Tuesday by Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.

Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion — $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.

We compared the inflationary impact of this bailout with the deflationary impact of a 20% contraction in the $14 trillion economy.  This looks like a wash that could bring an economic balance at the cost of the US dollar’s parity to  other currencies.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has frown 8.16%  overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  have come in in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.   In other words… history suggests that every day we move closer to May, the chances of a stock market correction in 2009 diminish.

We viewed the economic cycle and saw that we are reaching the phase of the economic cycle when we should be coming out of cash and bonds and into  shares as:

* Interest rates are down.

* There is a rush for liquidity.

* Employment is growing.

* Uncertainty is high.

multi-currecny-predictions

We looked at the fact that we have plenty of time… no hurry. We can wait and see.  We have time to choose and pick…  the best bargains and values.

We even looked at how the planets and full moon affect investors. There is a historic link in the general trend of world affairs and the the cycles of Jupiter and Saturn.    History suggests that when  these planets are in a good phase it is been auspicious for the world and vice verse.

The cycles of these planets are about 12 years and 30 years which ties into the market cycles we track.

The chart below shows the historical relationship.

We viewed this chart  from a Maharishi Vedic Astrology prediction by Siebelt Meyera in February 1997.

multi-currency-markets

The chart is a bit hard to see here so here is what it reads in the troughs:

1914 Start of WW I

1939 Start f WWII

1962 Cuban Crisis

1973 Yom Kippur War

1997 Economic meltdown in Asia

Since 1991, the cycle has been in their downward trends and reached its lowest in 1997 when Jupiter was debilitated, and in 1998 when Saturn will be debilitated. From 1999 onwards the value will slowly and reach a peak value again between 2012 and 2015.  This suggests a slow recovery over the next three years.

All of this confirmed that we should not expect a quick recovery and reconfirmed our recommendation to do nothing now. Maintain a defensive position and wait for opportunity to present itself.

We reviewed my personal portfolio to see how I am doing this.

Liquid Portfolio  Allocation

Cash  23%
Bonds  61%
Shares 16%

Liquid Portfolio Currency Allocation

Brazilian real              4%
Denmark kroner      33%
euro                            31%
British pound          10%
Turkey Lira                8%
US$                           14%

Total Asset Allocation

Cash  21%
Shares 2%
Emerging Shares .5%
Bonds 17.5%
Emerging Bonds  8%
Ecuador Real Estate 9%
US Agricultural Land 12%
Residential Property 10%
Commercial Property 20%

My Cash Currency Breakdown

USD   14%
GBP  4%
Norwegian kroner 1%
Swedish kroner 1%
Other 1%

My Shares

Bank of Florida  .5%
Jyske Bank  .5%
Turkey Equity Fund .5%
European Equity Fund 1%

My Bonds

Swedish Bond Fund  2%
Euro Bond Fund 4.5%
Danish Bond Fund 7%
ELF Aquitain  EUR 4.500% 23.03.2009  1.5%
Caisse D‚Amort Dette  EUR 12.07.2009  1.5%
Rabobank NL    CAD 4.250% 2009           1%

My Emerging Bonds

Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.250%12.08.2009   1%
Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.750%12.02.2013     1%
Emerging Market Bond fund  2.5%
European Investment BK TRY Bond  1.5%
Brazil    BRL  12.500% 05.01.2016          1%
China    EUR  1%

My US Real Estate

US Agricultural Land  12%
Residential Property  10%
Commercial Property 21%

My Ecuador Real Estate

Ecuador Andean residential 2%
Ecuador Coastal    5%
Ecuador Agricultural 2%

We also looked at the importance of investing in things we like.

We reviewed real estate investments in Cotacachi and on the Ecuador beach.

Delegates met Ecuador condo owners Bob & Barbara Humphrey. Here is Bob & Barbara at the Ecuador beach.

multi-currency-predictions

Bob & Barbara live in Telluride Colorado in the summer. Bob has retired from his diving business… flies his own plane and races cars (Shelby Cobra).  Barbara is a Feng Shui expert who lectures globally on this subject.

Like many of our readers Bob & Barbara have a condo both in Cotacachi and on the beach at Vistaazul Beach Condos.

We packed incredible amounts of information into three days but had fun as well.

There was plenty of time for delegates to talk and share what they learned.  Here are several delegates talking, US, Australian and Canadian.

multi-currency-predictions

Plus JGAM hosted a Valentine’s Day wine & cheese reception on Saturday night.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean musicians performed.

Multi-currency-predictions

There was Andean music… a Conga line began.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean dancers entertained.

multi-currency-predictions

There is an excellent organic vineyard and Swiss cheese factory near Cotacachi.  They are both for sale (the properties) and we are viewing them on today’s real estate tour.  For the party we just enjoyed the products, three excellent Swiss cheeses…

multi-currency-predictions

plus excellent wines.

multi-currency-predictions

The photographers in the group were having fun.

multi-currency-predictions

The youngest delegate was a bit bewildered.

multi-currency-predictions

Here is the key advice from that course.   Hold off. Wait. Do Not hurry. opportunities abound but we have plenty of time to pick them up. There could be another drop in May before a gradual recovery.  Invest with care… but invest with passion. Do things fulfilling as well as profitable. Enjoy the process as well as the end results.

Regards

Gary

Join us in Cotacachi and on Ecuador Coast in March.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for our three courses in March 2009, I will send it to you free. You save $299.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

March 16-19 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Bob Shane will be at our March courses and will be available to provide health balancing.

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador this February or March.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Global Asset Strategy Seminar

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6     Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11     IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8    IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Multi Currency Emerging Bonds


Multi currency emerging bonds denominated in the US dollar and euro can increase yields by 50% to 100%.

Two recent multi currency messages about multi currency bonds showed how to get numerous governments to guarantee dollar and euro denominated bonds. They pay 50% to 100% more than local government bonds of the same maturity.

However if you can accept some forex risk, multi currency bonds in emerging currencies can shoot yields into the stratosphere and more than triple what you earn from a US dollar treasury bond.

For example this portfolio of multi currency emerging bonds yields

Egypt EGP Pound 2012 10.81%
Eur Inv Bnk ZAR Rand 2009 11.51%
Hungary HUF Florin 2009 8.49%
RABOBANK RON Leu 2010 10.48%
Gazprom RUB Ruble 2010 7.00%
Eur Inv Bnk TRY Lira 2010 17.25%
Brazil BRL Cruzero 2016 11.13%
Mexico MXN Peso 2009 8.24%

The average yield is 10.61% and this portfolio is guaranteed by four governments and four top quality (still) borrowers.

We are reviewing how to enhance this profit even more with multi currency loans in our multi currency portfolios course. You can read this and learn how to buy these bonds as a multi currency portfolios course subscriber.

The financial crisis has hit the international capital markets in earnest. Emerging markets have turned out to be very resistant to the crisis compared with other asset classes.

See in tomorrow’s message why emerging market equities have been safer than major markets this year and may recover better as well.

Until then, good global investing to you.

Gary

Merri and I love our lives in North Carolina’s mountains but after autumn’s gold, the weather looks like this! Here we were one year at the entrance of our farm.

multi-currency-winter

We won’t make that mistake again! Instead we move to Ecuador’s Pacific coast and Cotacachi, enjoying weather and views like this one shot of sunrise in Cotacachi from our bedroom.

multi-currency-Ecuador-cotacachi-dawn

Tomorrow’s message looks at more Ecuador pictures and the benefits multi currency emerging equities.

Until then, good multi currency investing.

Gary

Our Oct 14-18 Ecuador Import Export Course has two spaces left.
http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-import-and-export-tour

Learn this November more about Ecuador and emerging bonds. Join Merri, me, Steve, Kjetil Haugan and Peter Conradsen of Jyske Global Asset Management in Cotacachi Ecuador. We’ll review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio and investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Nov 7-9 2008 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

See the wonderful balconies in the Primavera condos at for sale at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condo-balcony

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Then travel to the coast. See the Vistazul sunset on Ecuador’s Pacific.

Palmazul Sunset

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours.