Tag Archive | "Latin America"

Hot Emerging Markets


One path to everlasting wealth is via the hot emerging market economies.

emerging-markets

This Latin path has led to some great profits. See where this path is below.

Yesterday’s message looked at the seven places where I am investing now that we reviewed at our June Quantum Wealth course.

#1: Multi Currency Spreads Increase Cash
#2: Value Markets
#3: Emerging Markets
#4: Wellness
#5: Water Alternate Energy
#6: Truth & Cohesion
#7: Real Estate

And we saw why Emerging Markets especially make sense.

A recent 10 year comparison of major versus emerging markets show some of the reasons that emerging markets are one of the seven places I like to invest in now.

A comparison of the Morgan Stanley Capital index Emerging Market versus Morgan Stanley Capital Index Emerging Market Index.

Annual Return   Emerging Markets 19.81%    Major Markets  10%

Emerging Markets Longest Down period 6 months – Major Markets Longest Down 6 mos.

Emerging Markets biggest downward drop 55% – Major Markets biggest downward drop  53%.

Emerging Markets PE ratio 12.9   Major Markets  PE Ratio 15.2.

Major Markets yield    3.70%.
Emerging Markets yield  3.22%.

In other words in a decade… Emerging Markets have appreciated nearly twice as much as Major Markets.  There has been little difference in the lengths or size of drops and Emerging Markets offer much better PE ratios.  The only area where Major Markets have excelled is yield.

Yesterday’s  message also reviewed the current best value Emerging Markets (according to Keppler Asset Mangement): Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

Now let’s look at the Hot Emerging Market region… LATIN AMERICA.

Here is an excerpt from today’s www.Ecuadorliving.com article that explains why.

“In the first book I wrote back in the early 1970’s I wrote that ‘the sun always shines somewhere”.  This has been the motto of our publishing company since.

“On the eve of the 4th of July… a celebration of Independence, it may be fitting to remember this fact and that this celebration is about an attitude and way of life, not a place.

“The only source of real freedom comes from a strong economic base where everyone has a chance to live well.

“The history has been that industrialized countries provided this economic base of freedom and emerging countries did not.  So great fences have been built to keep the poor from moving to places where most are rich.  However as the tide changes we have to wonder… will the walls built to keep people out start keeping citizens in… like a Berlin Wall?

“Readers often ask me about Nationalization in South America.

ecuador-politics

Photo from May 6 Economist article on Bolivia nationalization.

“I often receive notes from unsettled readers writing with worries about Correa nationalizing all of Ecuador whenever politicians in Venezuela or Bolivia or Peru act up.

“These really are different countries… different people…. different political histories and Correa is quite different having risen from poverty via the educational route not military.

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Photo I took of Correa in Cotacachi.

“Yet the economic prosperity is growing in Latin America… as excerpts from the New York Times below explains.

“We can see the future in the here and now.  Plus our imagination is a value tool if we use it realistically and see ahead with an open mind.  Our forward vision is always blurred by the haze of quantum uncertainty that creates this  world.

“We should hedge our bets.

“One chapter there was about the ‘Concept Conversion Trick’ and says:

“The Concept Conversion Trick begins when people agree on a good concept for working and living together. The people go to work and if the concept is good they will create a paradise. The government gives them a flag and a song. Then the government pulls the trick. The government convinces the people that the flag and song are important. Then while the people are busy watching the flag and singing the song, the government replaces the concept with a set of ever increasing written rules and regulations administered by bureaucrats and backed up by a police force.

“This trick trades people’s individual freedoms for a shiver up the spine when the song is played and the piece of cloth is waved. The Concept Conversion Trick turns spirit into matter. Like trading love for a beautiful plastic doll. When the trick has been pulled and the dust settles, the people realize too late what has happened. Anyone who steps out of line is called unpatriotic or even criminal. He is swatted down by the bureaucracy or police force, crushed with overwhelming power or made an example of so others will tow the mark ‘for the good of society’. All this is done in the name of public interest.

“If this writing sounds prophetic having been written 25 + years ago, it was not. Any simple review of any previous great society shows this trick and evolution. Like the Roman Empire, things may get better for a while, then worse and then better again. In the long term, as societies age, they can lose their original vibrancy and life.

“Should we be surprised? Does not every single thing in this universal existence develop in the same way, vibrant and flexible while young and growing thicker and more brittle with age?

“My father loved animals and worked at the Portland City Zoological Gardens. He was a really kind, gentle, fair and scrupulously honest man. Yet one of his jobs was doing the zoo’s annual budget. I recall him spending weeks late at night (on his own time) working over these budgets each year. I also remember his telling me that every year they had to ask for more money because otherwise the city government would give them less. ‘If we do a good job with their funds, they penalize us,’ he told me.

“This is how the bureaucracy and society works, millions of small units each trying to grow and spend a little more, until the whole thing swells into an unstoppable mass of self-interest. This is the universal nature to grow until the growth becomes so excessive that balance is lost!

“This truth shows us the nature of mankind and every underlying force that goes from birth to continuity and then transformation. This is the way of life and if we are smart investors we recognize this and adapt.

“This is why I have almost always bet against the US dollar.

“This is why my business has been global for more nearly 40 years.

“This is why I have been so involved in Ecuador.

“My experience is that Ecuador is a very democratic free country filled with sweet friendly people. My bet is that the flag waving focus on drugs and terrorists and anti US sentiment will mislead a lot of potential investors and create bargains here now. That’s where I have been putting my money.

“An article in yesterday’s New York Times entitled Economies in Latin America Surge Forward by Moises Saman shows how correct this decision has been. Here is an excerpt:

“LIMA, Peru — While the United States and Europe fret over huge deficits and threats to a fragile recovery, this region has a surprise in store. Latin America, beset in the past by debt defaults, currency devaluations and the need for bailouts from rich countries, is experiencing robust economic growth that is the envy of its northern counterparts.

“Copper awaiting delivery in Valparaíso, Chile. Latin America has benefited from strong Asian demand for commodities.

“Strong demand in Asia for commodities like iron ore, tin and gold, combined with policies in several Latin American economies that help control deficits and keep inflation low, are encouraging investment and fueling much of the growth. The World Bank forecasts that the region’s economy will grow 4.5 percent this year.

“Recent growth spurts around Latin America have surpassed the expectations of many governments themselves. Brazil, the region’s rising power, is leading the regional recovery from the downturn of 2009, growing 9 percent in the first quarter from the same period last year. Brazil’s central bank said Wednesday that growth for 2010 could reach 7.3 percent, the nation’s fastest expansion in 24 years.

“After a sharp contraction last year, Mexico’s economy grew 4.3 percent in the first quarter and may reach 5 percent this year, the Mexican government has said, possibly outpacing the economy in the United States.

“Smaller countries are also growing fast. Here in Peru, where memories are still raw of an economy in tatters from hyperinflation and a brutal, two-decade war against Maoist rebels that left almost 70,000 people dead, gross domestic product surged 9.3 percent in April from the same month of last year.

“We’re witnessing what are probably the best economic conditions in Peru in my lifetime,” said Mario Zamora, 70, who owns six pharmacies in Los Olivos, a bustling working-class district of northern Lima where thousands of poor migrants from Peru’s highlands have settled.

“Vibrancy mixes with grit around his pharmacies. A Domino’s Pizza vies for customers with Peruvian-Chinese restaurants called chifas. Motorcycle taxis deliver passengers to nightclubs. Competition, in the form of a newly arrived Chilean pharmacy chain, looms around the corner from his main store.
Los Olivos offers a glimpse into the growth lifting parts of Latin America out of poverty, but big exceptions persist. In Venezuela, electricity shortages and fears of expropriations caused gross domestic product to shrink 5.8 percent in the first quarter.”

The path below is right outside of Cotacachi, Ecuador.  See the rest of this article at today’s Ecuador Living message that shows why Latin America is a “Growing Place to Be”.

emerging-markets

This is why I have invested heavily in Ecuador.

This is also why I have borrowed US dollars and invested the loan into Mexican pesos and Brazilian real. Learn about this tactic in my report Borrow Low Deposit High.

For example at our June Quantum Wealth course we looked at how the position I took with a$100,000 investment matched with a $100,000 US dollar loan at three percent returns 17% (before fees and forex gain or loss).

$200,000 Brazil bonds due 2016 that pays 10.00%
That’s $20,000 income per annum.
$100,000 dollar loan at 3% costs $3,000 per year

My return on the $100,000 invested is  $17,000 or 17% per annum.

Another one of my borrow low positions is an investment of

$100,000 Mexican government binds due Due 2024 that pays 8%
$100,000 AAA European Investment Bank Australian dollar 2013 bond that pays 5.56%
$100,000 AAA rated European Investment Bank New Zealand dollar 2014 bond that pays  5.38%

My average income on the three bonds is 6.31%  or  $18,930 a year.
My loan cost  on the $300,000 loan is $9,000.

My return on the $300,000 loan is $9,930.

New global bank regulations mean that it requires increasingly larger amounts to make this kind of investment… especially for Americans.  However new forex managed portfolios allow small investors to take advantage of this type of tactic.

For more details Americans should contact Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management  fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys at Jyske Private Bank mathys@jbpb.dk

Gary

emerging-markets

Merri and I hike the harbor every day when we are in Copenhagen.  We love…

investment-course

the sights, the…

investment-course

cafes and…

investment-course

open air and…

investment-course

waterfront dining.  Summer is the best time to visit Copenhagen.

Peter Berezin, Managing Editor of Bank Credit Analyst Researech (BCA) will be one of the speakers at the August Jyske Bnak’s Global Wealth Management Seminar, August 25 to 29, 2010 in Copenhagen.

I love attending these Jyske seminars not just as a speaker but because I get to hear all the other speakers, whom I consider world class.

One speaker who may provide some special emerging market insights is James Ellert, Professor of Finance and  Strategy, International Institute for Management Development, a global business school in Switzerland.  This school offers and MBA program for corporations,firms, institutions, and private and business clients worldwide.  This elite school located on the shores of Lake Geneva in Lausanne, Switzerland offers pioneering solutions that encourages open attitudes and provides relevant, innovative and rigorous research for a unique real world, real learning approach to apply new insights. The school  challenges boundaries for redefining ambitions and realizing performance breakthroughs.  This is one of the world’s top ranked business schools and the ideas from Professor Ellert can help understand emerging opportunities.

Other speakers include will be Bjorn Lomborg known as the “Skeptical Environmentalist.”  See more on Lomborg here.

Another speaker will be Jeff Rubin. Rubin was the Chief Economist for CIBC, a North American investment bank for 20 years. See more about Rubin here.

Kenneth Rogoff  the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former Chief Economist for the International Monetary Fund is also a speaker. See more at Rogoff.

Another speaker is Daniel Brehon, the foreign exchange strategist, for Deutsche Bank AG.  See more about Daniel Brehon and Deutche Bank here.

Another speaker is Peter Berezin, Managing Editor Bank Credit Analyst Research.

The strong US dollar makes this the year to enjoy Europe and Thomas Fischer at Jyske just sent me this note: Gary due to the increasing US dollar, the cost for our August seminar in Copenhagen for Americans has dropped from about $2,050 to $1,700, a 15% discount. (THE COST INCLUDES MOST OF THE FOOD, TRIPS, MAKING THE CONFERENCE A GREAT BARGAIN.)

Some great things about the Copenhagen conference are the seminar of course…then there’s the stunning food and the wonderful visits included…This package includes:  accommodation at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel for four nights, (25-28 August) including breakfast,  Reception and dinner at the bank’s Copenhagen offices, seminar fee and materials for the seminar sessions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. full lunches on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, canal & harbour tour on Friday in the late afternoon, four-course gala dinner with entertainment and dancing on Saturday evening, and a Sunday excursion including lunch.

Merri and I always go on the excursion also to Silkebord with a drive out into the country, lovely food, picnic cruise and a chance to see the main office and the trading center.  This is always our most interesting, favorite and delightful conference…and we hope you will join us there!  We love the stroll along the harbor, the fresh air, wonderful meals and interesting people from all over the world.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

emerging-markets

We also really enjoy the restaurants and coffee shops along Nyhavn.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

Regain Real Security

There is a path to true security.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.  Almost!

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.  Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?  Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.  This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

I want to share this information with a special few in our summer course in the Blue Ridge Mountains where the air is dry, crisp, with a bright sparkling sun.  Our North Carolina woods is a place where we can once again walk down sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths beneath huge, fat, green fir and hemlock.

We start the course with this question that can help us get our lives back.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.  This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are likely to make good investment decisions.  If not, no matter how much money an investors has, changes are, they’ll lose.

Bring Value and Purposeful Investing Together

value

Join us to learn how to make safety and profit easier and less time consuming so we can focus on our individual purposes in life.

Become an International Club member and join like-minded souls, who take a positive view and think outside the box for better health, greater income and safer, more profitable investments. Share ideas on how to add value to everything and make 2016 -2017 your best years yet.

In 2016 Merri’s, David’s and my mission is to share our 50 years of experience in international business, investing and living to make ourselves happier, healthier and wealthier.

To reach a wider audience we have shifted our seminars online including the seminar “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.

Here is a partial syllabus of this seminar.

  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have make smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.
  • How to look for short term problems that create long term value.
  • Update on the best ten markets for safety and profit.
  • How to diversify in value with Country ETFs.
  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Investing in Demographics.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • Hidden Inflation .
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2016. When and how to invest in gold and silver . How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.

Club membership is for an entire year and the recorded seminar is just one high point.

In 2016 and 2017 we are conducting online seminars about value investing, natural health and how to write to sell.

International Club members receive all the online seminars free.

In addition club membership includes:

  • Personal investing Course (Pi), normally $297, FREE
  • Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher, normally $299, FREE
  • Eventful Business, normally $349, FREE
  • International Business Made EZ, normally $299, FREE
  • Report “Three Economic Conditions for 50% or More Profit,” normally $29.95, FREE
  • Report “Silver Dip 2015” normally $27, FREE
  • Three online Value Investing Seminars, normally $477, FREE
  • One online Natural Health Seminar, normally $119, FREE
  • One online Writers Camp, normally $299, FREE

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments

Merri and I have been organizing courses, seminars and newsletters about international and Super Thinking  lifestyles for over 30 years.  The importance of this sharing… by like minded souls… was reinforced when a delegate from a course sent an email that said:

My Dearest Merri and Gary, Thank you for your most gracious hospitality last weekend. I am just thrilled at being a part of your group.  You and Gary were exactly as I imagined you to be, warm friendly, kind, considerate, genuine, helpful, fun, sincere, what else can I say……I felt so comfortable in your presence and learned so much in your course. I was sad to leave the farm that Sunday afternoon.  You made us all feel so welcome and cared about.  You were so kind to make arrangements for a ride with the other delegates from the Charlotte Airport.  They were so nice to me and so helpful, by the time the weekend was over I felt like they were my long lost brothers. Monday morning we all had breakfast at the airport together and I was so sad to see them go, I was sad the weekend was over, perhaps sad is not the right word for how I was feeling perhaps Gratitude is a better way to describe it.  Grateful for having the opportunity to share the weekend with such wonderful, like minded Human Beings, in the beautiful mountains of North Carolina. Thank you Merri and Gary.  Thanks to you I now have new hope and a new direction to move forward in my life.   I know by attending your classes and conferences that through education and due diligence I will make the right choices.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club.

Let’s prosper in these times of change. Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year?  Join us online.

Club members receive everything we offer in 2016 and 2017.

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments

Gary

Survival in Anarchy Through Publishing Cohesion


Here are some thoughts on how to survive & prosper in anarchy.

You can profit from a groundswell change in the world’s socio-economic system that creates enormous opportunity for small self publishers and exporters now.

ECUADOR-COASTAL-real-estate-tour

Here are delegates on one of our recent Ecuador tours.  See below how these tours help delegates learn how to earn through authenticity and cohesion.

More importantly see why authenticity and cohesion create this opportunity and why so many Americans and Canadians are moving to Ecuador… because of anarchy.

The internet and broadband are helping lead the world into a state of  anarchy… but in a very positive way.

Those who see the upside of this shift will prosper from the change that is coming.

Anarchy has been given a negative connotation, but…  in its truer… deeper meanings, anarchy describes a Utopian State.

One definition of anarchy is:  “A social state in which there is no governing person or group of people, but each individual has absolute liberty (without the implication of disorder).”

Anarchy is pure libertarianism.  In the real world… this state of pure freedom… has rarely worked for long because individuals with absolute authority have not been willing to also accept complete responsibility.  During times of anarchy… self interest groups try to impose their wishes on others by becoming top dog.  Everyone starts stepping on everyone else’s toes.

Traditionally anarchy turns into chaos and disorder.

This seems to be the nature of our universe… shifting from order to anarchy to chaos.

Entropy disintegrates but the process also creates ashes from which a Phoenix will rise.  After order slides into anarchy and  chaos it then comes back into a new order.

This site has recommended the book “Chaos The Making of a New Science” by James Gleick numerous times over the past decade.  An excerpt from that book below outlines a scientific explanation of this universal chaotic order and perhaps can help us see how to help and profit as well in times of change.

If disorder always comes from order then knowing why and how the internet is helping create anarchy, will help us spot  how to serve and profit in the emerging era.

This understanding is important.  Most Westerners are bewildered by the deterioration of the state they were educated to believe in. This is why many are emigrating to South America.  Many are seeking a return to the old Western dream.  Latin America offers a return to seemingly simpler times.

This is why this site also focuses on Smalltown USA where a less complex, friendlier social order still reigns.

The progression of society and the global economy may appear to be in a negative cycle, but common sense suggests that the shifts we are seeing, from order to disorder, are normal and to be expected.

All is in perfect order.  The problem is not the reality but our views that are out of touch with reality.

We can probably presume that most Romans felt equally overwhelmed when barbarians crossed the Rubicon.

Yet here is a point for survival in anarchy… despite the fall of Rome, for the past two millennium, Italy has remained a really great place to live. Italy in this period has been filled with opportunity.

Many Romans experienced great pain and suffering during the Empire’s fall… but those who looked ahead and prepared… were given a great opportunity to prosper as the old order ceased to prevail.  New ideas… fresh energy… enthusiasm and willingness to work became more valuable and rewarding as the old boy’s network, that was draining the empire, failed.

More on Chaos

Here is an excerpt from  James Gleicks book “Chaos – The Making of a New Science”.

What exactly is chaos? The name “chaos theory” comes from the fact that the systems that the theory describes are apparently disordered, but chaos theory is really about finding the underlying order in apparently random data.

When was chaos first discovered? The first true experimenter in chaos was a meteorologist, named Edward Lorenz. In 1960, he was working on the problem of weather prediction. He had a computer set up, with a set of twelve equations to model the weather. It didn’t predict the weather itself. However this computer program did theoretically predict what the weather might be.

One day in 1961, he wanted to see a particular sequence again. To save time, he started in the middle of the sequence, instead of the beginning. He entered the number off his printout and left to let it run.

When he came back an hour later, the sequence had evolved differently. Instead of the same pattern as before, it diverged from the pattern, ending up wildly different from the original.   Eventually he figured out what happened. The computer stored the numbers to six decimal places in its memory. To save paper, he only had it print out three decimal places. In the original sequence, the number was .506127, and he had only typed the first three digits, .506.

By all conventional ideas of the time, it should have worked. He should have gotten a sequence very close to the original sequence. A scientist considers himself lucky if he can get measurements with accuracy to three decimal places. Surely the fourth and fifth, impossible to measure using reasonable methods, can’t have a huge effect on the outcome of the experiment. Lorenz proved this idea wrong.

This effect came to be known as the butterfly effect. The amount of difference in the starting points of the two curves is so small that it is comparable to a butterfly flapping its wings.

The flapping of a single butterfly’s wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. So, in a month’s time, a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn’t happen. Or maybe one that wasn’t going to happen, does.

This phenomenon, common to chaos theory, is also known as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Just a small change in the initial conditions can drastically change the long-term behavior of a system. Such a small amount of difference in a measurement might be considered experimental noise, background noise, or an inaccuracy of the equipment. Such things are impossible to avoid in even the most isolated lab. With a starting number of 2, the final result can be entirely different from the same system with a starting value of 2.000001. It is simply impossible to achieve this level of accuracy – just try and measure something to the nearest millionth of an inch!

From this idea, Lorenz stated that it is impossible to predict the weather accurately. However, this discovery led Lorenz on to other aspects of what eventually came to be known as chaos theory.

Lorenz started to look for a simpler system that had sensitive dependence on initial conditions. His first discovery had twelve equations, and he wanted a much more simple version that still had this attribute. He took the equations for convection, and stripped them down, making them unrealistically simple. The system no longer had anything to do with convection, but it did have sensitive dependence on its initial conditions, and there were only three equations this time. Later, it was discovered that his equations precisely described a water wheel.

At the top, water drips steadily into containers hanging on the wheel’s rim. Each container drips steadily from a small hole. If the stream of water is slow, the top containers never fill fast enough to overcome friction, but if the stream is faster, the weight starts to turn the wheel. The rotation might become continuous. Or if the stream is so fast that the heavy containers swing all the way around the bottom and up the other side, the wheel might then slow, stop, and reverse its rotation, turning first one way and then the other.

The equations for this system also seemed to give rise to entirely random behavior.  However, when he graphed it, a surprising thing happened. The output always stayed on a curve, a double spiral. There were only two kinds of order previously known: a steady state, in which the variables never change, and periodic behavior, in which the system goes into a loop, repeating itself indefinitely. Lorenz’s equations were definitely ordered – they always followed a spiral. They never settled down to a single point, but since they never repeated the same thing, they weren’t periodic either. He called the image he got when he graphed the equations the Lorenz attractor.

In 1963, Lorenz published a paper describing what he had discovered. He included the unpredictability of the weather, and discussed the types of equations that caused this type of behavior. Unfortunately, the only journal he was able to publish in was a meteorological journal, because he was a meteorologist, not a mathematician or a physicist. As a result, Lorenz’s discoveries weren’t acknowledged until years later, when they were rediscovered by others. Lorenz had discovered something revolutionary; now he had to wait for someone to discover him.

Another system in which sensitive dependence on initial conditions is evident is the flip of a coin. There are two variables in a flipping coin: how soon it hits the ground, and how fast it is flipping. Theoretically, it should be possible to control these variables entirely and control how the coin will end up. In practice, it is impossible to control exactly how fast the coin flips and how high it flips. It is possible to put the variables into a certain range, but it is impossible to control it enough to know the final results of the coin toss.

A similar problem occurs in ecology, and the prediction of biological populations. The equation would be simple if population just rises indefinitely, but the effect of predators and a limited food supply make this equation incorrect. The simplest equation that takes this into account is the following:

next year’s population = r * this year’s population * (1 – this year’s population)

One biologist, Robert May, decided to see what would happen to the equation as the growth rate value changes. At low values of the growth rate, the population would settle down to a single number. For instance, if the growth rate value is 2.7, the population will settle down to .6292. As the growth rate increased, the final population would increase as well. Then, something weird happened. As soon as the growth rate passed 3, the line broke in two. Instead of settling down to a single population, it would jump between two different populations. It would be one value for one year, go to another value the next year, then repeat the cycle forever. Raising the growth rate a little more caused it to jump between four different values. As the parameter rose further, the line bifurcated (doubled) again. The bifurcations came faster and faster until suddenly, chaos appeared. Past a certain growth rate, it becomes impossible to predict the behavior of the equation. However, upon closer inspection, it is possible to see white strips. Looking closer at these strips reveals little windows of order, where the equation goes through the bifurcations again before returning to chaos. This self-similarity, the fact that the graph has an exact copy of itself hidden deep inside, came to be an important aspect of chaos.

An employee of IBM, Benoit Mandelbrot was a mathematician studying this self-similarity. One of the areas he was studying was cotton price fluctuations. No matter how the data on cotton prices was analyzed, the results did not fit the normal distribution. Mandelbrot eventually obtained all of the available data on cotton prices, dating back to 1900. When he analyzed the data with IBM’s computers, he noticed an astonishing fact:

The numbers that produced aberrations from the point of view of normal distribution produced symmetry from the point of view of scaling. Each particular price change was random and unpredictable. But the sequence of changes was independent on scale: curves for daily price changes and monthly price changes matched perfectly. Incredibly, analyzed Mandelbrot’s way, the degree of variation had remained constant over a tumultuous sixty-year period that saw two World Wars and a depression.

We can glean insights into how to react in the future from this excerpt which shows us that:

#1:  It is impossible to predict anything perfectly.
#2: There are little windows of order within all chaos.
#3:  There is sensitive dependence on its initial conditions. Little changes bring huge results.
#4:  There is self-similarity, exact copies of the past hidden deep inside in present and future, even during chaos.
#5:  The degrees of variation remain constant over all, even tumultuous periods.

This suggests that chaos is simply our misunderstanding of order and if we always plan and look for the positive in this chatter… we’ll find better times and opportunity.

Back to the internet… cohesion… and authenticity.

The previous order was ruled by broadband. Radio, TV, records, newspapers, cinema  provided cohesion in the North American and European society.  The majority heard the same music… saw the same shows… at just about the same time… and there were not all that many channels.

Children went to school had about the same education, talked about the commonalities they saw the night before, then at home they connected again to the same input, as everyone else.  So life in Maine was not that different from life in Southern California… because everyone received the same broadcast on just a few networks.

Now children go home form school and tap into hundreds of thousands of different networks… perhaps millions on the net.  This small change in the initial conditions of the formation of our future society is likely to have profound consequences.   A much broader spectrum of thought will influence the upcoming generation beyond Elvis, The Beachboys, Beatles and Jan & Dean.

What this specifically will mean… is unpredictable… but we can see in a bigger picture how this will reduce national cohesion everywhere. Loyalties will rise from common interests shared on the internet… not from the effects of broadcast within a political boundary.

Governments will find this force hard to resist.  If they limit their population’s input… they will limit access to the global economy and advances from  deeper knowledge… lower productivity and especially reduce innovation.  This will cripple and handicap societies that shut down or censor the net.

Publishing and export opportunities comes from this because:

#1: Societies need cohesion.

#2: The global community is the best answer for business productivity. Political borders are inefficient.  True cohesion comes from truth (authenticity). Few political manifestos or the administrations of these manifestos are honest or true.

#3: Small pockets of truth (your publishing or export business) reflected around common interests can create business opportunities because they act like little windows of order during times of increased turmoil.

Let me give you a clear and specific example…. our Ecuador export… and Quantum Thinking and Spanish business.

Despite a tremendous decline in the economy over the past several years… these businesses have been growing at a rate of over 20%.  Is this Americans fleeing the US?  Americans and Canadians headed south?

Only in part.

international-business

Here are delegates at our most recent Super Thinking Plus Spanish seminar in Florida. These delegates were from the USA, Canada, France, South Africa, Sri Lanka and China… bound not by political boundaries… but by common interests… to increase intelligence to adapt to change and to communicate better in Spanish.

Look for small windows of lunacy as the world seems to become insane… small truths that will shine in a swelling tide of lies. If you can find a genuine way to serve your fellow man by crossing borders with products (exporting) or valuable information (publishing) then you can gain stability and profit from the very same internet that is also creating anarchy.

Gary

Learn about our self publishing course here.

Learn how to earn income through a global business at our Quantum Wealth seminars.

One recent delegates from the British Commonwealth wrote:

Dear Gary and Merri…  I wanted to say thank-you-first of all for your kindness and generous Information while I was in Ecuador this February.
I came up to Cotacahi, went on two real estate tours with Bonnie..and stayed at Meson de las Flores before the IL conference.

I am still working on how my life will move this year… I have many options to think about and am still trying to sell my current land-based business.

Back here I am working on putting together a ‘presentation’ for locals who may be interested In Ecuador.

I am simply going to put an ad in the local paper and book my church hall if the response  is greater than 20 people or so.

I had a few adventures while I was in Ecuador and am looking forward to a fresher,freer and financially improved lifestyle.

There are many ways to earn extra income… through an international business in exports… self publishing and with global internet businesses. Our Quantum Wealth seminars look at many ways to profit.

Enroll now in our June 24 to 27 Quantum Wealth Seminar.

Enroll here. $749 Reserve for one person –  $999  Reserve for two

Learn more about our Quantum Wealth International Investing and Business Seminar here.

Learn how to gain earning freedom with Ecuador exports and real estate.

April 12-15 Ecuador Export Expedition Tour

ECUADOR-COASTAL-real-estate-tour

Bonnie Keough will lead our April Ecuador export tour.

ECUADOR-COASTAL-real-estate-tour

here is a group on a tour with Bonnie in February 2010.

Here are some of the products that Bonnie imports herself including…

ECUADOR-export-tour

organic chocolate.

ECUADOR-export-tour

Textiles and…

ECUADOR-export-tour

knitted jackets are good sellers plus…

ECUADOR-export-tour

low cost jewelry out of vegetable ivory…

ECUADOR-export-tour

beads have good markups.

ECUADOR-export-tour

Handbags of leather and…

ECUADOR-export-tour

cloth are also good.

Stay after the export tour and view Ecuador real estate for sale.

Apr. 17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Apr. 20-21  Coastal Mid Coast Real Estate Tour
Apr. 23-24  Quito & Mindo Real Estate Tour

Learn how to export Ecuador flowers and much more.

Learn more about Ecuador Roses here

Ecuador-christmas-roses

Learn how Fedex delivers Ecuador Easter lilies to your home.

ecuador-floral-information

Learn more about our May 9-12, 2010 Cotacachi Super Thinking Plus Spanish course here.

May 9-12       Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Cotacachi Ecuador

May  13-14    Ecuador Shamanic Mingo

May  16-17    Imbabura Real Estate Tour

May  19-20    Coastal Real Estate Tour

May  22-23    Quito Real Estate Tour

May  25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

You enjoy discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours.

Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.

Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,349 Save $149 on couple

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899 Save $98 single or $348 on a couple or more

Four Pack… 4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299 Save $98 single or $697 on a couple or more

Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

Here is our June 2010 schedule.

June 24       Quantum Wealth North Carolina

June 25-27    International Investing and Business North Carolina

June 28-29    Ecuador Travel & Andes

June 30-Jul 1 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Singles


Ecuador Singles are very safe in many parts of Ecuador.

A reader recently sent this note. Hello Gary,  I have thoroughly enjoyed reading all your emails on Ecuador.  I would love to visit you when I have some funds available, and because of the economy my funds are non existent for travel now.  I have been told by several people and particularly by a Panamanian friend (female), that Ecuador is very dangerous because of the Colombian drug situation.  Crime is big and is it dangerous for a single female such as myself, to go there.

Here is my reply.  There is a popular misconception that Ecuador is a dangerous place.

This is like saying New York City  is a dangerous place.  Sure there is danger in some parts of New York. My research suggests that if you are in Manhattan and go to East and Central Harlem it can be a bit sketchy. Ditto for Washington Heights.   In Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Crown Heights may not be good places to stroll at night.

Yet overall New York City has the lowest crime rate among the ten largest cities in the United States.  Since 1991, the city has seen a continuous fifteen-year trend of decreasing crime.

Then there are those who know what to do and are safe even in dangerous places. One site I researched said of East Harlem:  I have an uncle, who lived with his wife in one of the housing projects in East Harlem and manage to raised three children there since living there in the 80’s and 90’s. But he just moved out about a year ago. He said that the changes in the area got much better after the 2000’s. He said, he would stay, but they already had saved enough money and already buy property in Puerto Rico.

This is true of Ecuador as well. There are places you won’t find me walking around and I pretty well know what to do… how to look out.  I have only been robbed three times in 41 years of global travel… once in London and twice in the US… all at home or within two blocks of home.

Yet many parts of Ecuador are far safer than in North America.  We have dozens of single women readers who have moved from the US and Canada now living in Ecuador and have never heard a single complaint. They are probably safer in Ecuador than in most US cities.

I have written about this extensively at this site. If you have concerns please search the phrase “ecuador crime” at this site.  You will see numerous recent articles we have published.

There is also a good BBC article about crime in South America.  You will notice that the article does not mention Ecuador as one of the high crime areas in Latin America.

Ecuador has always seemed like a very safe place to us. We have taken thousands of people to Ecuador and though groups and tourists are always targets for crime… wherever they travel in the world… we have never experienced a violent incident.

From a security point of view one has to be on the lookout for pick pockets in tourist areas but other than that our thousands of readers who have visited Ecuador report few problems…  as mentioned not one incidence of violence.  We advise people at this time not to stay or visit the area of Mariscal Sucre nor go anywhere near the Colombian border or in the province of Esmeraldas.  Crime in Guayaquil in the 14 years we have been there was once bad but due to government measures is not as bad now.  Parks in Quito have trouble with theft and the like and it is good to just avoid these areas.

Our site covers our thoughts on risk extensively.

Here are links to just a few of the numerous articles we have posted about Ecuador safety.

www.garyascott.com/2008/12/02/3062.html

www.garyascott.com/2009/05/09/4944.html

www.garyascott.com/2009/03/08/4115.html

www.garyascott.com/2008/12/04/3072.html

www.garyascott.com/2008/12/02/3062.html

www.garyascott.com/2008/11/22/3001.html

www.garyascott.com/2009/08/22/6303.html

To assist those interested in Ecuador Ecuador Living has established a full time full support research and assistance team to help Ecuador Living subscribers in any way required.

This complete service includes our staff being able to provide personal responses to your questions about Ecuador crime.

You can subscribe here

Other services offered include scanning Ecuador newspapers looking for unique properties and put our subscribers directly in touch with sellers … thus avoiding brokerage fees.

We also help our subscribers by asking developers (since we are not brokers and do not to accept real estate commissions) to provide discounts to our subscribers if they buy property.

For example, one Quito property seller is offering a $10,000 discount to our subscribers on a spectacular Quito condo.

In another example there are 4 buildings at Primavera II in Cotacachi. The first building has condos at $46,500.

Ecuador Living subscribers can subtract 2% off most of the prices of most new units at Primavera.

In another case the Vistazul condos north of Manta provides our subscribers a $10,000 savings plus a free Galapagos cruise.

Helping subscribers find real estate is only one part of our service.  If you have an interest in traveling, investing, living, buying property or doing business in Ecuador a subscription to Ecuadorliving.com brings many benefits.

One huge benefit in using our service versus relying on brokers or travel agents is that we are not trying to sell real estate. For our modest subscription you get our honest opinion based on 40 years of international business and 13 years of living, traveling and doing business in Ecuador.

Ecuador Living subscribers gain access to our extensive contacts plus share the input from over 18,000 subscribers who continually let us know what they see hear and experience good and bad. We conduct real estate tours to help our subscribers learn Ecuador’s real estate market in the most efficient way.

There are three sources of more than 1000 pages of free information about Ecuador please see www.garyascott.com and www.successguidelines.com/ecuador_real_estate/index.htm and www.ecuadorliving.com

Our Ecuador Living service goes beyond this free information.  You can subscribe here

Regards,

Gary

Join us in Ecuador or Florida or Both. See the best Ecuador property for you.  Find the best real estate offers.  Know more of Ecuador. To help you experience a bigger adventure in this wonderful nation, to broaden your horizons, to expand your awareness of all Ecuador offers, we are providing deep discounts in 2010 for those who sign up for multiple tours.

Join us at our upcoming courses and tours.

December 6-8 Blaine Watson’s  Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in 2010. See our winter Ecuador real estate tours below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour $499 Couple  $749

Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749
Jan. 21-22     Coastal Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749
Jan. 23-24    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749
Jan. 22-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida $749 Couple $999

Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour      $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

2 seminar courses & tours $949 Couple  $1,399

3 seminar courses & tours   $1199 Couple  $1,749

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,399 Couple $2,149

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,599 Couple $2,499

6 seminars courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,999

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

See our entire 2010 seminar and tour schedule here

Cuenca Real Estate


Cuenca Real Estate

The Cuenca real estate market grows.

Cuenca-real-estate

Real Estate in Cuenca has wonderful architecture. Here is Cuenca’s Main Square.

Even the daily press is catching on to Cuenca and Ecuador real estate.

An article “House Hunting in … Ecuador” by Lisa Keys recently appeared in the New York Times.

Here are excerpts from that article: A THREE-BEDROOM, 3000-SQUARE-FOOT HILLTOP HOME IN CUENCA
$220,000  This rustic home — made from local bamboo, hardwood, river rock and tile — was built two years ago by a local architect. It sits on a third of an acre in the Cuenca, a Unesco world heritage site about 300 miles south of Quito.

The front door is inlaid with the local wood, called chanul. An open living room/dining area has mountain views, as well as a stone fireplace, exposed hardwood beams and posts, and a brick ceiling. Off the dining area is a 96-square-foot terrace. The eat-in kitchen has granite countertops; off the kitchen is a maid’s suite. The master bedroom is on this level, along with a second bedroom; both bedrooms have en-suite baths.

A brick-and-bamboo staircase leads upstairs to a sitting area and another bedroom, which has a sloped ceiling and a 36-square-foot terrace. The lower level has a workshop and a storage room.

The house is off an unpaved road in the Rio Amarillo neighborhood, in the foothills of the Cajas Mountains. The area, until recently very rural, is morphing into a suburban neighborhood with large homes, according to David Morrill, the home’s listing agent.

Colonial buildings, art galleries, museums and concert sites are about six miles away in Cuenca. A shopping center as well as Cuenca’s indigenous market is four miles away; the airport, with numerous daily flights to the international airports in Guayaquil and Quito, is eight miles away.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Though predominantly a local real estate market, Cuenca is becoming increasingly popular with American expatriates, particularly retirees, said Mr. Morrill, a partner at Cuenca Real Estate. They are attracted to the relative affordability, he said.

In spite of the global economic downturn, home prices in Cuenca continue to rise, in part, because of they are relatively low to begin with. Condos sell for around $700 a square meter ($56 to $65 a square foot); new construction is $850 a square meter ($79 a square foot), Mr. Morrill said. Single-family homes are $300 to $500 a square meter ($28 to $46 a square foot); new construction is approximately $500 a square meter ($46 a square foot), he added. The house featured here is more expensive than the average, at $73 a square foot, because of its unique design and expensive building materials.

North American buyers are not the only reason for the uptick.

There are some great things about Cuenca like…

Cuenca-real-estate

The agriculture that surrounds Cuenca. Here is an organic farm in the San Joachin area of Cuenca.

One of Cuenca’s public markets.

Cuenca-real-estate

Here a Cuenca flower vendor in one Cuenca’s many public markets.

Cuenca-real-estate

Cuenca has many parks. Here is Parque de Paraiso which has walking and biking trails.

Cuenca-real-estate

Four rivers flow through Cuenca.

Cuenca-real-estate

Yet there are more forces pushing Cuenca’s and Ecuador’s real estate market.

An article from entitled “$600 Million Earmarked by Government for New Housing projects” World Assurance Group Inc.” says: Nov 02, 2009,  World Assurance Group Focuses on Central America in Conjunction With a New Ecuadorian Housing Mandate . World Assurance Group (PINKSHEETS: WDAS) announced today that the Ecuadorian Government has recently announced substantial policies aimed to increase new home buyers in Ecuador.  New home buyers will be allowed a $ 3,960 bonus given by the Housing Ministry for a new house they purchase. It seeks to expand such support to $ 5,000 for homes with a value of up to $ 60,000.

WDAS had announced on Oct 22, 2009 that its subsidiary ANAV Holdings Corporation signed a proposal to enter into a purchase agreement for an 8.5% participating interest in a 15 hectare private housing community located at one of the leading ports in Latin America with Premier Developments. The project’s first phase is in full production and has already sold 20% of the 207 homes. The entire project including phase two will be an estimated 500 home development. Currently these homes sell for $40,000 – $80,000 price range.

Low prices…  great natural resources… colonial charm… every facility a city can possess… but not too many people are all helping Cuenca real estate grab attention.  All of this will help the Cuenca real estate market to grow.

Gary

See the best Ecuador property for you.  Find the best real estate offers.  Know more of Ecuador. To help you experience a bigger adventure in this wonderful nation, to broaden your horizons, to expand your awareness of all Ecuador offers, we are providing deep discounts in 2010 for those who sign up for multiple tours.

See more on Cuenca real estate  at “Cuenca Real Estate

Gary

Join us in Ecuador or Florida or Both. See the best Ecuador property for you.  Find the best real estate offers.  Know more of Ecuador. To help you experience a bigger adventure in this wonderful nation, to broaden your horizons, to expand your awareness of all Ecuador offers, we are providing deep discounts in 2010 for those who sign up for multiple tours.

Join us at our upcoming courses and tours.

December 6-8 Blaine Watson’s  Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in 2010. See our winter Ecuador real estate tours below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour $499 Couple  $749

Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749
Jan. 21-22     Coastal Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749
Jan. 23-24    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749
Jan. 22-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida $749 Couple $999

Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour      $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

2 seminar courses & tours $949 Couple  $1,399

3 seminar courses & tours   $1199 Couple  $1,749

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,399 Couple $2,149

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,599 Couple $2,499

6 seminars courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,999

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

See our entire 2010 seminar and tour schedule here

$600 Million Earmarked by Government for New Housing projects

www.marketwire.com/press-release/World-Assurance-Group-Inc-1069068.html

Ecuador’s Season


Our belief in Ecuador, as a place to live and invest, comes in part because of its position in the seventh wave of the industrial revolution.

We conducted our International Investing & Business Course last weekend here at the Jefferson Lansing Golf resort clubhouse.

ecuador-season

We reviewed cycles and seasons… how Ecuador opportunity and business in Ecuador really pick up at about this time of the year.  Ecuador’s up season is coming up.

Seasonality is a really important factor of investing to keep in mind… especially right now… as we will see below.

First, in that course we looked at the Asset Allocation of my portfolio and…

Ecuador Property      15%
US Property                46%
Total Real Estate   61%
Equities                           3%
Emerging Bonds            9%
Bonds                             14%
Cash                                13%
Total Liquid              39%

Why I have so little in the stock market now is due to cycles, seasonality and personal values.

Regarding seasonality, October is the bewitching month of  shares.

We viewed how, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the western economy has been moving through fifteen-year upward and downward cycles.  We saw how we are in the tenth year of a potentially 15 year downward wave.

Since the 1800s the stock market has moved in 30 year waves, peaking in bubbles and ending in troughs. Technology, warfare and politics are all related to these cycles. The phrase that coined this great social economic transformation we call the “Industrial Revolution,”  according to historian David Landes, was first in a letter of 1799 written by French envoy Louis-Guillaume Otto.

Since that time mankind has enjoyed ten boom cycles… each created by new technology. Each boom has been followed by a bust… a bear market… a down wave that lasts about 15 years…. for 310 years.

So it is appropriate that in information era up wave  (the dotcom bubble) the Dow topped at 10,336  and then crashed Oct 1, 1999… 300 years after the first revolution began.

Here is a chart of the Dow in that 10th upward period from www.finance.yahoo.com.

ecuador-season

That crash began the current 15 year side ways model that marks the downward cycle.   The peaks and valleys, consistent with the downward wave has slaughtered many investors which, I explained at the course,  is why I have so few equities now.

Seasonality is why I  am not buying equities in October as well.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has grown 8.16% overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  has come in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.

In other words… October is a volatile month for shares.  In fact the worst days of  the US stock market have been in October.

Black Thursday was October 24th in 1929. During that frenetic day nearly 13 million shares changed hands, nearly four times the norm.  Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929.   The market was slashed again leaving the Dow 40% down in that week.

ecuador-season

Black Monday  was October 19, 1987, global equity markets crashed, starting in Hong Kong. Panic rushed to Europe and then knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 22.61%, its largest one day drop ever.

ecuador season

In short the good equity growth season is about to begin.

Market timing is never more important than the search for value… but it sure can help the search for value.

Seasonality studies give support to the current bear market recovery but suggest the support is best after October.

Plus watch out for a severe October market correction!

Thomas Fischer from Jyske Global Asset Management was with us and pointed out that JGAM’s  low risk portfolios have a very underweight position in equities as well.

During the course we also looked at the importance of personal values in investing by enjoying the process.

We saw some great autumnal beauty…

ecuador-intuition

in the Blue Ridge during the course.  We walked some glorious paths.

ecuador-intuition

Yet this is an El Nino year… a cold winter is predicted.  A long one maybe.

Excerpts from a 19 August 2009 UN New Center article entitled “El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, explains why: The United Nations agency dealing with weather, climate and water says an El Niño event has begun in the tropical Pacific and is likely to continue into early 2010.

El Niño and La Niña bring significant temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean: an El Niño event sees a rise in temperatures and La Niña witnesses a drop in normal temperatures.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world, especially in Latin America, Australia and East Asia, which can last for a whole year or more. Both El Niño and La Niña can disrupt the normal weather patterns and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said today that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.

“Scientific assessments of these observations indicate that this warming resembles the early stages of an El Niño event,” the Geneva-based agency stated in a news release.

In its most recent update on the subject, WMO stated that the expectation is for El Niño conditions to very likely prevail through the remainder of 2009 and into the first quarter of 2010.

Last year our autumn paths in October turned…

ecuador-season

to this in November.

ecuador-season

Here was the weather report yesterday Oct.14 2009 at Asheweather.comRainy, cold, and raw about sums it up for today. High temperatures for the day were early this morning; We’ll slip into the lower 40s for the rest of the daytime as rather steady rain continues. Watch out for thick, dangerous fog along the Blue Ridge today through much of Thursday. And yeah, we weren’t kidding about that weekend snow shower thing. Gory details below.

Here are some weather statistics for our area that suggest what  happens in Southwest Virginia and Northwest North Carolina (where we are in the Blue Ridge) during an El Nino year.

Roanoke’s snowiest month on record was January 1966, with more than 41 inches. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s coldest winter on record was that of 1977-78, which also had more than 37 inches of snow. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke got 19 inches of snow on Feb. 10 and 11, 1983. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s snowiest year of the 1950s (1957-58), second snowiest of the 1990s (1992-93) and snowiest of the 2000s (2002-03) each in the 28-to-30-inch range occurred during El Ninos.

Long term patterns in weather or stock markets are no guarantees… but by looking at the odds wouldn’t you rather invest in equities at a time that historically has shown the highest appreciation year after year.   And though snow and cold are not guaranteed up north, wouldn’t you rather have this in the dead of winter (Mt Imbabura) or…

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this?

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Ma, Merri and our friend Steve Hankins at our condos in San Clemente, Ecuador.

This is why we added three more courses and tours in December in our 2009 schedule and will have even more Ecuador courses in January though March 2010.

The remaining 2009 courses are below.

Gary

Join our Ecuador courses and tours October, November or December.

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business

This course can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in all our seminars or tours for any one month, October, November or December, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Head south to Ecuador!

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Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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In Cotacachi the weather is always Spring like.  Here is the village plaza near our hotel Meson de las Flores.

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Let our friendly staff at Meson de las Flores serve you.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

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This shorts weather photo was taken from our beach penthouse in February.

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Beyond Logic Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea.  Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire UN article El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, says UN agency

Ecuador Golf Course for Sale


This 9-hole Ecuador golf course is for sale.

See more on Ecuador golf

This is a small business opportunity, a 21.39 acre estate with an executive golf course, pitching and putting, 6 greens on a 5 acre area.  It has six cabins plus a two bedroom, one bathroom house.

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This property was one the market at one time at a price that was too high… $1.6 million dollars.

Now the owner has adjusted it down to a realistic price  $860,000 in his offer below… but I believe he will take less as he offered us a commission which we explained we do not take.  Use this fact… that you are coming to him without a brokerage cost… if you get into a negotiation.

Here is what the owner sent

Rancho Totoral Hostería & Laguna Golf Course

Business & Promotion

NAME:       RANCHO TOTORAL HOSTERIA & LAGUNA GOLF COURSE.

OFFERS:
•    A 85,574.01 m2 Lot (21.39 acres approximately)
•    An executive golf course, pitching and putting, 6 greens in a 2 hectares (5 acres) area, with a sprinkle irrigation system; 3” water pump with a 10 H.P. diesel motor.  The irrigation water supply is from the property reservoir. (Off season)
•    The right to have 15 hours 40 minutes of irrigation water.
•    BENYE 254 –Tractor.
•    CARONI 3 blades LAWNMOWER (rough cut).
•    TORO REELMASTER FRAME 7 blades reel to cut fairways.
•    MOTOCULTOR BCS 745- 3blades LAWNMOWER to cut prior greens grass and to aerate the golf course.
•    TORO GREENMASTER 1000- to cut greens extra fine.
•    GROOMING REEL – attaches to the GREENMASTER to make vertical cuts to the greens.
•    A 1.000 liter tank to fumigate (2 wheel axis, rim 15) with a 3.5 H.P.  BRIGGS STRATTON gas motor and a 1.5” pump.
•    WAGON (2 wheel axis rim15).
•    REPAIR WORKSHOP with a variety of maintenance tools.

HOSTERIA:
•    6 LODGE CABINS (31 m2 or 333,56  sq2), each one in excellent conditions, color T.V., wall to wall carpet, balcony with lagoon and mountains view, unique garden bathrooms. Two double beds in each room.
•    RESTAURANT/CAFETERIA- max capacity 60 guests, bar, lounge, direct TV service, restrooms, lobby and kitchen in an area of 269 m2 (2,894  sq2).  All restaurant and kitchen items included.
•    PATIO area- roof, includes a clay oven and a laundry room
(47 m2 /505,72 sq2).
•    CLEAR ROOF TERRACE PATIO (120 m2 / 1,291.2 sq2).
•    HOSTERIA  MAIN ENTRANCE with an electric gate.
•    MAYTAG Washer and Dryer.
•    RESERVOIR CISTERN of 16 m3 for drinking water.
•    HOUSE on 2nd story includes: 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, living room and a loft (147 m2 / 1,582.72 sq2)
•    LAGOON ACCESS with a 64m  shore.
•    Wonderful gardens and cobbled paving paths.

VALUE OF PROPERTY, CONSTRUCTION, EQUIPMENT AND MACHINARY.

•    A 85,574 m2 Lot (21,39 acres) based on Municipal appraisel.
•    Six available cabins (186 m2 / 2,001.36 sq2  approximately).
•    Restaurant, Restrooms, lounge with DTV, front desk lobby, and kitchen (269 m2 / 2,894 sq2 ).  includes restaurant supplies for 100 guests.
•    A 2 bedroom 1 bath apartment on second story and a loft on the third floor.
•    Outdoor lounge, a clay oven, and worhshop (47 m2 / 505.72 sq2 )
•    translucid roof terrace patio (120 m2 / 1,291.20 sq2).
•    pressure Water pump,  maytag washer and dryer.
•    cistern (16m3) drinking water reservoir.
•    cobbled paving paths, gardens, and electric gates.
•    executive golf course (pitching and putting, 6 greens,
(off season )
•    golf course  machinary:
•    BENYE 254 –Tractor.
•    CARONI 3 blades LAWNMOWER (rough cut).
•    TORO REELMASTER FRAME 7 blades reel to cut fairways.
•    MOTOCULTOR BCS 745- 3blades LAWNMOWER to cut prior greens grass and to aerate the golf course.
•    TORO GREENMASTER 1000- to cut greens extra fine.
•    GROOMING REEL – attaches to the GREENMASTER to make vertical cuts to the greens.
•    A 1.000 liter tank to fumigate (2 wheel axis, rim 15) with a 3.5 H.P.  BRIGGS STRATTON gas motor and a 1.5” pump.
•    WAGON (2 wheel axis rim15).
•    REPAIR WORKSHOP with a variety of maintenance tools.

ASKING PRICE   $ 860.000,00.-

Contact

EDUARDO VILLALOBOS
RANCHO TOTORAL HOSTERIA & LAGUNA GOLF COURSE
rtotoral@imbanet.net
www.ranchototoralhosteria.com
P.O. BOX 10-01-224  Ibarra
Telefax: (593-06- 2955-544)
Cell:  094805605

Here is more on this Ecuador golf course for sale.

The lake in question is Laguna Yaguarcocha, just five minutes north of the city of Ibarra and a little more than half hour drive along main highways north from Cotacachi.

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There is a ridge which runs between the lake and the city of Ibarra and from a local lookout point you get the view of the lake above and also the city below.

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The property is called Rancho Totoral.

Here’s a picture from just last Sunday of our Imbabura real estate group eating lunch on the newly constructed patio. By the way, Eduardo the owner, tells me the architect designed roof over the patio cost just $8,000 to put up last summer.

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Last Sunday, just as all our delegates were finishing lunch I strolled over to Eduardo and asked if he wanted to present his project. He has about 22 acres in total and had been thinking of building some townhouses with a local constructor. To my complete surprise he said, “..well actually me and Patricia (his wife) have decided to sell the whole property”.

Suddenly I found myself with unexpected news to convey to the group. As we strolled out on to the grounds, one delegate, a successful internet company owner, said “let me guess – $1.8 million” and I said close ” but the asking price is $1.6 million”.

Of course, not all of us have that kind of money but if that price sounds a little high, bare in mind that just bare land around this desirable lake is selling at $10 per square meter and Eduardo’s price is only for the land and buildings – he’s asking $18 per square meter for thousands of square meters of construction and a 9 hole functioning golf course with the business thrown in. Here’s a shot of one of the fairways below with the lake and mountains in the background.

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The altitude here is just under 7,000 feet and as such the climate is warm with only the slightest hint of an early morning chill. Here is the 44 seat restaurant below and the building it’s inside. (The patio can seat a further 100 people).

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This area has a perfect climate around the lake and not surprisingly the lake is a weekend trip destination not just for Ibarra’s inhabitants but also folks from Quito and even further away. Here’s a couple of early morning shots of the lake as I arrived yesterday with the early morning mist just about burned off.

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Laguna Yaguarcocha is also the site for Formula 3 races around a fast circuit and previously the races were run on the road that runs clean around the lake. Paragliding is a popular early morning sport, launch yourself of a nearby hill and glide serenely over the lake just as this guy was doing yesterday morning. Snow capped Cotacachi volcano was easily visible through the trees in the distance this clear morning.

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Here are some shots of the road outside Rancho Totoral and also the entrance to the property and the driveway down to the restaurant and house, one think I like about this property is the mature gardens and tremendous variety of plants and trees.

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Patricia and her daughter in-law relaxing outside the house

The golf course itself is the only one in the country north of Quito. You can go round and round the course all day long for $25. It’s pretty much a pitch and put course although I can assure you that wouldn’t be the case for me! Mind you if I owned this property I’d be out walking this property every morning just as I did with Eduardo yesterday morning.

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Irrigation.

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The bar and kitchen.

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More cabin shots.

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Lake Yahuarcocha.

Here are a couple of shots of the course.

There is wonderful club house.

Lush Gardens

And some charming guest cottages on the first tee. We’ll visit them again next course. Hope you’ll join us there.

There is a race track that wraps around Yaguarcocha Lake.

One wonderful thing about owning Ecuador real estate is that there is just about everything in this area from hot springs, to glorious mountains to great fishing to wild cloud forest preserves to golf to Formula 3 car racing.

Several delegates recently went to the races at lake Yaguarcocha. You can see some shots of the race below.

Start of the Ecuador real estate races at Yaguarcoacha

French participate in Ecuador real estate races at Yaguarcoacha

Winner at Ecuador real estate races at Yaguarcoacha

Last April, 2006 it was announced that Latin America motor sport took a big step forward by introducing the PanAm GP Series races. This is a brand new racing series that makes a significant impact on racing in Central and South America.

This series includes races in Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama and the United States at Homestead in Miami. There is extensive TV coverage on the Fox network.

Although Merri and I are not fans, for those that like this type of sport there are many kinds of races from Formula 3 to motor bikes to souped up go carts here that add one more business dimension to this land.

Whether you want real estate in America, Ecuador or anywhere in the world, look for distortions. They offer value that can improve your lifestyle and increase your wealth.

Here are more pictures.

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On our last real estate tour.

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Landscaping and…

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the cabanas from…

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far and…

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Here is

ECUADOR-PROPERTY

the entrance and restaurant.

ECUADOR-PROPERTY

Contact

EDUARDO VILLALOBOS
RANCHO TOTORAL HOSTERIA & LAGUNA GOLF COURSE
rtotoral@imbanet.net
www.ranchototoralhosteria.com
P.O. BOX 10-01-224  Ibarra
Telefax: (593-06- 2955-544)
Cell:  094805605

Gary

See this property on our real estate tour. Enroll here. .

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

Ecuador Banking Notes


Ecuador banking notes from Ecuador subscribers are below.

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm

This is the Ecuador bank and ATM we use in Cotacachi.

Before we look at these Ecuador banking  notes, you should be aware that non residents cannot open checking accounts at an Ecuador bank.  They can open a savings account.

Visa credit cards work at ATMs operated by Bank of Guayaquil, Pichincha, Produbanco and Banco Pacífico. Each ATM shows the logos of which cards can be used on that machine. We use our regular ATM cash card issued by our Florida bank at this Bank of Pichincha branch (shown above) on Cotacachi’s second smaller plaza.

Ecuador-multi-currency-plaza

The plaza is pristine because it is maintained by the bank.

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The bank is next to the police station and the second smaller Cathedral.

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Here are some Ecuador banking notes sent by subscribers.

You can add recent experience to your banking info that you can write a check on your US account and send it to an Ecuadorian bank for deposit. Normal mail takes about 5 days to Quito. BUT, you can’t make it payable to the bank with instructions to credit your account. Nope. You have to make it payable to yourself and then, get this, endorse the check. You cannot do, as you would in the US, add “Deposit Only to Acct 12345” — So, you are sending an endorsed check through the mail. This means it is just like cash. This is completely different from anything I have ever seen in the banking world.  Then it takes about a month for them to clear the check. Your alternative is to pay about $40 to wire the funds, and the Ecuadorian bank will charge to receive them. Or, you can get a cashier’s check and FedEx.

There are three Cotacachi ATMs. Two are on the main street 10th of August. Here is one of them…the newest of the three.

cotacachi-road-work

We are allowed to take $500 a day from the Pichincha ATM and $300 a day from the others.

Ecuador banking like in every country, has its peculiar glitches including with ATMs. Here is another sent by a reader.

Dear Gary,  I truly enjoy your posts! We have been lucky enough to find Cuenca to be our perfect Ecuadorian home but I did want to pass on a heads up based on your information today about banks in Ecuador…

When using ATM’s and cash cards in Ecuador, make sure you get your cash from a machine that is in, or at the front door of an open bank. As you receive your cash, check it for smooth feeling bills.

Last November we had the disappointing experience of getting 5 counterfeit $20 bills in our ATM withdrawal of $200. We were using an ATM at the “Parque Calderon” in the center of Cuenca, one of the most visited ATM by tourists in the city. Not imagining that there was any risk we pulled our $200 cash out and proceeded to Spanish class. It was there we were told five bills were fakes (all Ecuadorians who work with money are extremely aware of counterfeit bills as they have to cover the loses from their own pay) We were flabbergasted, especially when the woman at the school told us this had happened three times in the last month.

We called the card provider ( a Credit Union in Colorado) and they told us that as it was not in the US, there nothing they could do.

We went to the bank that owned and stocked the machine eight days in a row (each day we were told the person to see would be in the next day) trying to talk to someone who could/would do anything. It was not until we started using the word “Falsos” rather loudly in front of the crowd in the waiting line (usually about 50 people in Ecuador) that we were finally sent to a manager. The manager set us up with another manager who did not show up for our meeting either, and then another who blamed it all on the main office in Guayaquil. Finally we just marched in and went straight to the top, the bank director who kindly spent an hour showing us that the problem could not have ever happened and that the fakes must have been put in when the bills were packaged in Kansas City by the US Federal Reserve.

Knowing that a $100 loss would be devastating to a typical Ecuadorian family where teachers and policemen make $150 a month, we decided to bring charges against the bank, if only to catch their attention.

Needless to say the case is making its way agonizingly slowly through the Ecuadorian Justice system and we don’t ever expect to see our money back, but we can warn others.

-Avoid cash machines not attached to banks.

-Pull your cash out in a very visible place, preferably with the bank guard watching.

-Rub the bills between your thumb and fingers to feel for a different texture (fake bills are smooth like copy paper).

-If you think you feel any difference, immediately take it to the guard or teller and demand new bills.

Ecuador is an amazing place but even and especially the locals trust the banks and bankers about as far as they can throw them. As you say once bitten twice shy.

Here is Cotacachi’s third ATM.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske ATM Banking in Ecuador

One nifty way to combine global investment management bank and your cash needs in Ecuador is through Copenhagan with Jyske Bank’s VISA debit cards.

This card makes it easy to access cash from your Danish bank account.

Why a Danish bank?  As mentioned earlier I do not trust Ecuador banks. On the other hand Danish banks are among the safest in the world.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

In recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

Jyske Bank is well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

The people at Jyske are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

How about service?  First of all,  Jyske can manage your wealth. For anyone with $50,000 or more to invest Jyske can buy, sell and hold investments from all over the world, stocks, liquid assets, bonds and commodities. They provide full managed or advisory only services.  They even lend in multiple currencies to leverage investments for investors with $100,000 or more.   Almost no bank in North or Latin America can do this.

Once you have Jyske caring for your wealth, they can then provide a steady stream of cash when you need it…via a global debit card.

Jyske Ecuador & Global Service.

Even US clients who have managed accounts at Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM) can have a VISA debit card.

JGAM opens a specific on demand account with Jyske Bank so funds can be made available via the card.

These cards can provide access to cash anywhere in the world…including Ecuador.

Jyske offers three different cards to match different needs.   Each type of card provides considerable flexibility.

US citizens and residents can get more information from Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management. Email: fischer@jgam.com

None US should contact Jyske Bank Rene Mathys  at mathys@jbpb.dk

This is good advice for when you are banking in Ecuador that we are happy to share.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business. This can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in our North Carolina or Ecuador International Business & Investing seminar in October or November all three courses, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

ecuador-tours

We always conduct our autumn North Carolina course n the first weekend of October… the best time to enjoy  the leaf change.

Join us with Jyske Bank and my webmaster David Cross in West Jefferson North Carolina. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

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You’ll see views like this on your way to West Jefferson.

Or head south to Ecuador!

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October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour ONLY THREE SPACES LEFT

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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In Cotacachi the weather is always Spring like.  Here is our group meeting at the Cotacachi museum next door to our hotel Meson de las Flores.

Join us with Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management in Ecuador. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

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Let our friendly staff at Meson serve you.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

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Ecuador winters are shorts weather on the beach as this photo shows.

Join us in the mountains and at the sea. Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emails courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Retire in Ecuador – Beat Inflation


A good reason to retire in Ecuador or away from your home is to beat inflation.

Yesterday’s message looked at reason why inflation is not a problem now… but it will be… probably in a serious way.

See below three ways to beat inflation.

First… live or retire in Ecuador or any country where the cost of living is low.

These nice houses in Cotacachi were offered at $49,000.  That beats inflation when you retire in Ecuador.

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Costs are low. This fixer upper in Cotacachi has an asking price of $30,000 with…

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a huge yard filled with mature fruit trees and…

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this view.

Second, invest in land or commodities.

A long time friend Steve Rosberg whom I first met when he was my banker in Ecuador recently sent me this note as he operates a timber plantation and real estate development in Argentina.

Gary, During our visit to New York two weeks ago, a friend and former colleague from my banker days pointed out that Latin America had been the perfect training ground to succeed in the current investment environment. I agree 100%.

In case there was any doubt, California’s  issuance of IOU’s to settle short term debt was the final confirmation, and was rapidly followed up by other corollary events, such as banks stating that these could not be accepted as deposits. This would be obvious to anybody thinking about it, but apparently, most people weren’t.

Those IOUs are a different ‘currency.’ They are a currency which you will see more of in the future, as the issuer (the CA government) is still running deficit budgets, and no new voluntary lenders are rushing in to fund them.

Decidedly a  scenario familiar to those of us who have been through a number of LatAm crises. If an Argentine president tried to pass those IOU’s off, nobody would be foolish enough to take them in the first place, and the international press would ridicule the plan as another example of LatAm fiscal impropriety.

Meanwhile, the debate seems to rage between “Are we going deeper into recession? Are we going into high inflation? Are we going into stagflation?”

The answer is yes, absolutely!

How do we position our portfolios to make the best of this without taking on more downside risk?

This is the crux of why we have developed our business as we have:

– to have growth even if there is recession (the trees keep growing, the vineyard too),
– to have value even if there is high inflation (timberland, vineyard, hotel, all real, appreciating assets that will both protect the real value of your initial investment from inflation’s erosion and generate cash flows that will also increase in this scenario),
– to have current revenue originating in the sustainable production of real assets,
– to do so in environmentally responsible ways, and
– to enjoy what we are investing in.

In short, what you want now for the long run.

We continue to believe that debt free assets producing real commodities and generating solid returns are the antidote to portfolios stricken by the poor performance of supposedly safe, “mainstream” assets, and will continue to be so going forward.

Yes, we’re from Argentina, that means we’ve been preparing for these markets for decades. Our customers didn’t lose money last year-they made it.

Visit our website and write back for more information, it’s always our pleasure to be in touch with you.

With best wishes, Steve Rosberg  www.ushay.com

Third, invest in commodity based equities.

The excerpt below is from our Multi Currency course and shows why global inflation is a problem.

A recent article in the Economist showed that the US deficit could be three trillion dollars in 2010.   Half of this would come from borrowed funds.  Normally this would cause the US dllar to fall versus other currencies.

A free fall in purchasing power of all currencies is also more likely than in previous recessions (1970s and 1980s), because then, the US overspent but other major governments, especially Germany and Japan, were still conservative and fiscally prudent.

This is no longer true. West Germany unhinged fiscal common sense when it absorbed Eastern Germany.

Excerpts from a May 14, 2009 article in the Financial Times entitled “Germany set to suffer record deficit” by Bertrand Benoit says:

The German government will record its biggest post-war budget deficit this year as the economic crisis sends tax revenues plummeting, Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, said on Thursday.

Mr Steinbrück admitted the federal deficit would exceed €50bn in 2009 and rise to €90bn next year, more than twice the previous record of €40bn set in 1996 as Germany was absorbing the huge cost of its unification. In contrast, the federal deficit last year was only €11.9bn..

Germany and Japan have both been hit especially hard by this recession because their economies have been so dependent on exports and global trade.

Germany has a huge amount of short-time working and its exports have fallen dramatically.  Like almost everywhere, government income is dropping as spending is on the rise.

If the German economy were to continue to shrink at its current pace, it will be a 20% smaller by the end of 2009.

This means Germany remains in default (as does France, Italy and Spain) of the three per cent limit in the EU stability pact.

All eurozone countries, but especially those with larger deficits, such as Italy and Spain, face a similar problem…  rising costs… aging populations… growing pension and health costs while faced with reduced income.

Asia Troubled As Well

This year, Japan suffered its first annual trade deficit in nearly three decades and business has slowed dramatically there. Global demand for Japanese products plummeted in 2008 and exports were down 16% in the year to March 2009 compared to 2008.

Hong Kong’s economy gives a glimpse into China’s economic soul and here business also contracted at the fastest rate since the Asian financial crisis.

The first three months of 2009 had the biggest drop in more than half a century.

The Hong Kong government predicted that GDP would contract by up to 6.5 per cent in 2009.  Total exports dropped 22.7 per cent in the first three months of 2009 compared with the previous year – the biggest drop since 1954. Overall investment fell by 12.6 per cent and private consumption by 5.5 per cent. The unemployment rate also rose to a 38-month high of 5.2 per cent in the first quarter.

Huge Economic Problems

Huge economic problems create huge investment opportunity and one of the greatest problems facing the world is that education has not evolved as fast as democracy.  Too many poorly educated voters expect their government to do more than they can… or should.  The voter’s desires and expectations are ill informed and generally incorrect… yet their vote is as powerful as an educated one.

This forces politicians to act (spend) more than they have.  This tends to create inflation.   This rather predictable fact has become increasingly global so choosing a strong currency becomes increasingly hard.  Most currencies are at risk to inflation.

This is why stocks, commodities, real estate and your own business makes so much sense now.   There is a caveat.  Always invest in good value in these things.

This is why my attention was really captured when I read about the ALTIS Global Resources Fund.

This is a fund that invests in commodity backed equities and is advised by value guru Michael Keppler.

If you are a new reader learn about Keppler Asset management here.

This creates a powerful combination for opportunity.  The figures below support this.

Michael Keppler recent sent me this note:

Gary, Attached please find the latest Fact Sheet and Performance Review (as of April 30, 2009) for the ALTIS Fund Global Resources, a global sector fund we advise, which was featured in an e-fund journal report of May 4, 2009 as one of the “top 10 natural resource equity funds” based on its 5-year Sharpe Ratio calculated by Lipper.

This fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing primarily in equity securities issued by companies located anywhere in the world with business operations in the energy, natural resources and precious metals sectors.

You can learn more about this share and read this entire multi currency report as a subscriber to our multi currency course.

Economic fundamentals suggest that the price for ending the current recession will be inflation.

Three ways to fight inflation are retire in Ecuador or some other country with a low cost of living or to invest in real estate, commodities or commodity based investments.

Gary

Join us at our North Carolina farm this July or October for our International business & investing seminars below. Learn more about how to fight inflation and retire in Ecuador.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Iran Excerpt


A number of readers have asked about Ecuador and Iran so here is an excerpt from our latest Ecuador Living report.

Some of the ideas apply to interaction between radicals in all of the Middle East and the West and how they can affect our wealth, business and investing.

The idea that Iran is a great enemy intent on attacking us is great for selling news, but a bad leader or two does not reflect the entire population.  Many of us in the US did not agree with some of the leaders our the last administration.

IF  Iran is to become more involved in the West and that’s a very big IF, I do not see it being any great deal. The only risk Iran poses is if many people give them a lot more concern then they deserve… as certain leaders in the West gave Saddam Hussein.

I do not claim in any way to be a great global military strategist but that thinking has some support from the thinking of other  who I do think are good at strategic global thought such as… Lee Kwan Yew.

I worked and spent a lot of time in Singapore during the late 1960s and early 1970s so I recall vividly the way Singapore used to be.

Lee Kwan Yew had a lot to do with Singapore emerging from a form of colonialism that included a lot of poverty to one of the wealthiest societies in the world.

This means it is fitting to read some of Lee Kwan Yew’s thinking that could apply to Ecuador and Iran now.

Lee Kuan Yew outlines the risks of relying on the local press succinctly in a 2007 interview with  UPI’s editor at large, Arnaud de Borchgrave.

Q: So what is your recommendation about Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

A: Is it now unstoppable. They are a very old civilization. Unlike the Arabs, apart from Mesopotamia valley, they rank with the Chinese, as history’s two principal civilizations worth talking about. And I think the mullahs and others want to go back to the days of empire.

Q: So should we be talking to them at the highest level, the way Henry Kissinger went to China?

A: (Chuckle) But you haven’t got a Kissinger or a Brzezinski to do that anymore. Where is the successor generation of geopoliticians?

Q: In fact, democracies don’t produce great statesmen anymore. Why?

A: You now have, and I don’t know how long this phase will last, mass media domination, owned by a group of media barons who want constant change for their balance sheets.

Q: So the power of mass media has made it impossible for a great statesman or woman to emerge and last any length of time?

A: I’m not sure. It depends on the nature of the crisis that must be faced. When a real crisis sets in, a matter of life and death, opinion formulators realize this is no time to be pontificating, but a time to stay the course with someone who understands what this is all about.   Short of that, the media help put a leader on the pedestal and then start chopping away at the pedestal until he/she falls in disgrace. That’s part of the cycle of constant change. Watch Sarkozy in France. They hoisted him up to prominence and now they’re already attempting to bring him down through his personal life.  Well, yes. But it’s also the enormous pressure of media competition and the giant appetite for advertising revenue, what television program gets what viewership, or eyeballs, or clicks online. Never mind the consequences. If you get the advertising, you win.

Q: When I last interviewed you in May 2001, I asked you what concerned you most about the next 10 years, and you replied, “an Islamist bomb, and mark my words, it will travel.” Four months later, we had Sept. 11. Secondly you said, “China and India’s challenge to the global status quo.” Do you still have the same concerns about the next 10 years?

A: Not quite. The Islamic bomb has traveled already (in Iran). I’m not sure how this will now play out. The U.S., the Europeans, even the Russians, will have to make up their minds whether to allow Iran to go nuclear. The Russians are playing a game, posing as the nice guys with Iran, supplying nuclear fuel, and making it look as if America is causing all this trouble. But if I were Russia today, I would be very worried about Iran acquiring the bomb, because Russia is more at risk than America. The risk Israel runs is another dimension. Russia is at risk because whether it’s the Chechens or Central Asian Muslim states that were former Soviet republics, none are friendly to Moscow. Next time there’s an explosion in Moscow, it may be a suicide bomber who isn’t wearing an explosive belt or jacket, but something a lot bigger. It would certainly be in Russia’s interest to say at some future point to Iran, “this far and no further.” It could also be that Russia no longer knows how to stop it, in which case the Russians will be opening the door to a very dangerous world of nuclear proliferation. You can be quite sure that if and when Iran gets the bomb, the Middle East will go nuclear.

Q: Which raises the question of the United States or Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A: (long silent pause) … I can express no views on that.

Q: As I travel in moderate Muslim states in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, I ask heads of state and government how many extremists, or would-be jihadis, they estimate live in their midst, also how many fundamentalists who support openly or secretly the jihadi cause. The answer is usually 1 percent and 10 percent. In a country like Pakistan, that translates to 1.6 million extremists and 16 million supporters. On a global scale, that comes out to roughly 14 million extremists and 140 million sympathizers.

A: Yes, but I do not see them winning, and by that I mean able to impose their extremist system. I can see them inducing fear and insecurity, and causing fear, but they don’t have the technology and the organization to overwhelm any government.

Q: So how do you assess the global threat since Sept. 11? What are we doing that’s right and also that’s wrong?

A: Even if we can’t win, we mustn’t lose or tire. We cannot allow them to believe they have a winning strategy, and that more suicide bombers and WMD will advance their cause and give them a chance to take over.

Q: Did Iraq have anything to do with al-Qaida?

A: Of course not, as became clear in the daily sessions the imprisoned Saddam spent with his Arabic-speaking FBI interrogator over several months before his execution. But U.S. authorities were convinced Saddam was secretly supporting al-Qaida with weapons and training and maybe even WMD. So therefore the imperative became the elimination of Saddam.

A: (Laughs for several seconds) We should learn to live with it for a long time. My fear is Pakistan may well get worse. What is the choice? (President) Musharraf is the only general I know who is totally secular in his approach. But he’s got to maneuver between his extremists who are sympathetic to Taliban and al-Qaida and moderate elements with a Western outlook. We forget that right after Sept. 11 he was given a stark choice by President Bush: either you abandon your support of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan or face the disintegration of Pakistan. There is an interesting study of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency that says 20 percent of the Pakistani army’s officer corps is fundamentalist.

A: There is very little, if anything, the U.S. can do to influence the course of events in Pakistan that wouldn’t make matters worse. Any U.S. interference in Pakistan would result in Pakistan’s four provinces becoming four failed states. And then what happens to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal? It’s a horrendous festering problem. The Feb. 18 elections may bring a little clarity and hopefully democratic stability to Pakistan, but I am not holding my breath.

Q: So you do feel that NATO’s future is at stake in Afghanistan?

A: No doubt about it. But you should also realize Afghanistan cannot succeed as a democracy. You attempted too much. Let the warlords sort it out in such a way you don’t try to build a new state. The British tried it and failed. Just make clear if they commit aggression again and offer safe haven to Taliban, they will be punished.

Q: If NATO collapsed in the wake of a failed campaign in Afghanistan, would that be a major concern of yours in Singapore?

A: Not immediately, but overall the balance of power would be upset.

Q: In whose favor?

A: China and Russia. They would be faced with a much weakened West in the ongoing global contest. I can also see the danger if America loses heart and says to hell with it all because the Europeans are not helping and the Japanese are blocking this and that, and tokenism from all the others. Let’s not forget that what we’re all enjoying today is the result of Pax Britannica and Pax America over the past 100 years. So don’t give it up.

Q: But in the Gulf, if the U.S. and/or Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran has formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities?

A: But let me repeat, they cannot conquer you. Hezbollah cannot conquer Lebanon. They can create trouble for the non-Hezbollah Lebanese. So micro actors can cause a lot of trouble for your friends, but they can’t eradicate them.

You can read this entire report as an Ecuador Living subscriber and see why if there were to be a military concern in Latin America it would be over China…not Iran..

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Subscribe to Ecuador Living and learn in an upcoming report about this huge lot and house in Cotacachi for $30,000.

There were two articles readers have recently mentioned.

The first article began, QUITO – Iran will finance two new power plants in Ecuador and extend a 40-million-dollar loan for business development, officials from both countries said Thursday, three months after the first visit by an Ecuadoran president to Tehran.

The second:  Iran, Ecuador Eye Military Ties As U.S. Prepares to Withdraw from Airbase Friday, May 29, 2009, by Patrick Goodenough, (CNSNews.com) – As the United States military prepares to vacate an airbase in Ecuador in the fall, the leftist government responsible for its upcoming departure is looking to Iran as a future military partner.

While I do not feel that nuclear power or expanded military might are good things, I do believe completely in the global economy and in expanding the wealth of all.

ecuador-iran

Subscribe to Ecuador Living and see an upcoming report on how to own this organic tomato farm with…

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trout pond.

One can argue about all the numerous conflicts in the world but if we boil it down to the few most important, one of the biggest tensions in today’s society is that there are a few very wealthy people and many, many poor.

For decades my premise for economic expansion has been based in part on the belief that most people, if given a choice, will spend their time doing positive things, like working at something they love for increased material wealth and great fulfillment rather than living a guerilla’s life.  A poor soldier’s living conditions are  generally not pleasant… the pay low… the risk extreme.  That life, however, is better than one of complete hopelessness and despair.

If Ecuador Iran cooperation can help make more poor Ecuadorians and Iranians rise out of poverty… I say…”go for it!”

There are many potential and huge benefits to be gained by bringing Iranian business to the West. Maybe Iran being closer to the West will help it integrate?  Current events in Iran suggest that many of the population would be happy to do so.

ecuador-iran

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I have had an opportunity to observe Correa and the people of Ecuador react for a couple of years now.  At times I have been quite close… such as when I took this photo.

Ecuador-photos

Correa is in a strong political situation at this time. One thing that could destroy his popularity quickly would be the perception in this 90% Catholic country that he is introducing Islamic radicalism.  Therefore Correa may line up with Iran for some money… and to gain leverage in his dealings with the West… but a major integration would surprise me very much.   One bombing in an American hotel in Quito or Guayaquil and Correa’s popularity would be toast.

There have been worries about his friendship with Chavez. There are these worries of Correa with Iran. There have been worries about South America pulling away from the US dollar.

Yet so far none of these fears have affected life, happiness, opportunity, real estate values or  law and order in Ecuador.

In short anyone who never heard of or ignored all these fears and moved optimistically forward is better of than those who did not.

Most of the press are writing about the world sliding into recession. Many articles in the Western press make it sound like there’s little opportunity and great danger everywhere.

Good. Their doom and gloom creates positive global investing opportunity for those of us who can see through the illusion.

ecuador-iran

Subscribe to Ecuador Living and learn about Primavera V condos.

Regards,

Gary

We hope you’ll join us to learn more business and investing opportunities globally as well as Ecuador.

July 4-8 Ecuador Export Tour

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Ecuador Wills


Ecuador wills do not work if challenged.

We’ll look at some important information about Ecuador wills and Ecuador’s legal system in a moment.

Plus see below how asset protection benefits in the LLC you use may have changed.

Here is a group of indigenous farmers that our foundation Land of the Sun (LOTS) is helping.  They created a mingo (working circle) to clean out their water system that feeds a school that LOTS is helping to renovate.  Merri and I and some friends visited to check on their progress.

Ecuador-wills

Everyone works, men…

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women…

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young…

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and old.

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Well… not everyone works.

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But everyone gets involved in helping. Here is our hotel manager Franklin Sandoval conferring with the head of the village.

Ecuador-wills

I mentioned our foundation here  because it helps us gained fulfillment in our business, plus creates tax and asset protection benefits plus is part of our estate planning to make sure that the people of Ecuador are helped even after we pass.

Making sure that your assets held abroad are protected and properly conveyed in your estate requires extra planning.

Yet many Ecuador Living subscribers have been buying real estate or are moving to Ecuador without giving thought to the added complexity in their estate plans and other legal requirements.

I strongly suggest that you review you entire estate with both a local and Ecuadorian attorney. Here are some excerpts from an Ecuador Living report on why.

The Western world operates on two systems of law, the civil law of ancient Rome, and the common law of England.  These two systems have a lot in common, yet in many important areas they differ.

These differences can create legal conflicts in contracts, wills, trusts, parental rights and even residency.

The passing of wealth to heirs for example is one area that differs.

Few people coming from North America (which operates under a British common Law system), understand that US, Canadian or Ecuador wills do not work in Ecuador if challenged.

Many legal systems have evolved from The Roman civil code.  The Napoleonic Code is the French version, established under Napoléon I in 1804.  The Napoleonic code was not the first legal code to be established in a European country with a civil legal system though. The Codex Maximilianeus bavaricus civilis was reated in Bavaria arund 1756).  The Allgemeines Landrecht formed in Prussia, around 1794.  The West Galician Code,  began in part of Austria around 1797.

Many of the civil codes in Latin America are based on an original work derived from the French code and Castillan law.  Chile was the first to accept this type of legal system in 1855.  Ecuador followed in 1858.  El Salvador,  Venezuela,  Nicaragua, Honduras, Colombia and Panama are other countries with a legal system based on this foundation.

In this Ecuador legal system, the will is called the testament and allows the testor to direct the disposal, in whole or in part, of their property, upon death.   The testor retains the right to revoke the provisions in the testament anytime during his or her life.

However there is a difference in common and civil law as to what is a person’s property is.   In most civil codes, the wife automatically owns half of all property unless otherwise  stipulated in a formal way. The children own the other half.  Period. A will cannot supersede this fact.

If a person’s will leaves all of his or her property to his or her spouse, the will works fine UNLESS the children contest the will. If they do the testament will not be valid.

This can create complications in simple circumstances.  If the circumstances become complicated… for example children from two or more marriages… then problems could mount.  There is even a concern in my mind that a surviving spouse could lose investor residency status if the inheritance falls below required minimums.    A spouse could lose residency and a house!

In a common law country a person can write a will on a scrap of paper, throw it in a drawer (not advised) and that may be enough.  Though it also might not.  In a civil code jurisdiction such a will definitely will not work!

So if you create a will in Ecuador and then write another later… be sure to make the change official. Otherwise the new will may not work.

In a common law legal system wills do not have to be recorded and often the act of writing a new will allows the new document to supersede the old.

Ecuador’s Act reforming the Civil Code, of August 17, 1989 updated a number of areas relating to  covers relationships between a children and their parents, marriage, divorce, the status of wives, marital property and marital agreements.

Having an attorney to help you with estate planning in every country where you hold property makes sense…  especially if  two of the countries have different legal systems.

The US attorney we use is our friend (and trustee of LOTS) Joe Cox.

Joe’s firms specializes in cross border tax and estate planning, asset protection and real estate.

He provides an incredible system called The Strategic Snapshot which is an easy to use, color coded visualization of a person’s structures, corporate entities, estate plan and assets. We use the snap shot and have found it incredibly useful in seeing how everything from a legal point of view should fit.

You can ask Joe about the Strategic Snapshot at  jcox@coxnici.com.

Joe’s law firm also provides an excellent estate planning newsletter that I read regularly.

A recent letter at his archive shows how and says:

Conversion to Manager-Managed LLC Format

Many individuals concerned with asset protection have formed a Limited Liability Company (“LLC”) in an effort to protect their assets. In fact, most people do not know that Florida was the second state in the United States to draft LLC legislation (dating back to 1982). Most LLCs we see in our daily practice have been formed as member-managed LLCs, that is, when the members (i.e., owners) of the LLC control and manage the LLC as well. However, due to recent changes in the law regarding LLCs, we are now recommending that any Member-Managed LLC be converted into a Manager-Managed LLC format.

The intent of this recommendation is to increase the creditor protection of the LLC should the Member be involved in a lawsuit.

For example; under a Member-Managed LLC, if a creditor of the Member is able to obtain the LLC membership units (by court order, for example), the creditor could obtain management rights and make decisions for the LLC. At least one recent court ruling (from Colorado) makes this result a possibility. However, under a Manager-Managed LLC format, the Manager retains control of the management of the assets held by the LLC even if someone else “controlled” the LLC membership units.

In a Manager-Managed LLC, an elected Manager (pursuant to the Operating Agreement) manages the LLC. Note, that an existing member can act as the initial Manager of the LLC, and an independent Manager can be elected at a later time, if desired. Under a Manager-Managed LLC format, if a member was successfully sued, and the creditor obtained the member’s LLC membership units, the Manager could withhold distributions from all Members and the creditor would receive nothing. This result could deter a potential creditor from filing an unjustified or otherwise frivolous claim.


Plus Joe’s website offers an easy to use internet questionaire. See Questionaire.

We live in a complicated world often made more frustrating by the legal system.  Legal systems are problematic enough when one lives and resides in one country.   Difficulties can compound when living and or holding assets in two countries or more… especially if both legal systems…common and civil become involved.  So get an attorney and get advice so you, your spouse and your heirs never find your results uncivil.

The text above is an excerpt from a more complete report sent to Ecuador Living subscribers that describes Ecuador legal system, how to create wills there and provides legal contacts in the US, Canada and Ecuador that can help.

Learn how to subscribe here.

Regards,

Gary

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See our full 2009 schedule here.

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
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