Tag Archive | "keppler"

Three Words Create a FAB Idea


Here are three steps we can take to have a fabulous lifestyle.

These steps, that can create a fab future, can be summed in three words, “Change… Our… Perception”.

ecuador-car-rentals

This was my first car when I turned 16, a powder blue 58 Chevy.  That seemed like a great car… then.  I would not want to drive it (even if it were new) much now.  Human nature causes us to look at the past as “good old days”.   Production standards have risen a lot in recent decades but, by romancing the past, we can forget how much better so many products are now.

We tend to look at the past with rose colored glasses.  The past becomes “the good old days” even when they were not so good.  This rosy tint is created by a form of memory bias, called “Fading Affect Bias” or FAB.  FAB is caused by a neurobiological reaction in many mammals.  FAB makes positive events in our past more attractive than negative events.  As time passes, we remember the events that made us feel good more than those that made us feel bad.

FAB is great in some ways.  Dwelling on past negatives (except to learn and improve from them) does not get us anywhere.  Nor does “downer thinking” feel good.  The downside is that FAB allows us to fool ourselves into making errors, such as thinking that returning to the past will make the future better.  FAB can rob us of the excitement and adventure of living in such wonderful times of opportunity right now.

For example, a Wall Street Journal article “Economists Disagree With Voters Who See U.S. Worse Off Today Than in 1960s” (1) reviews a poll that asked if life in America is better today than 50 years ago.   A plurality of 46% said things were worse now.  Only 34% said life today is better than in the 1960s.

Yet 88% of economists who were asked in a poll said the U.S. is better today than in 1960 and 87% see today as better than 1980.

The facts are clear.  Industrialized society has seen a six times increase in wealth in the last century.  Almost everyone is richer even though most of the world has become cynical.  Modern communications allow us to better see growing discrepancies between the rich and poor.  This clearer picture of reality creates anger, turmoil, hatred and war.

There are many factors that make it seem like the quality of life has deteriorated in the past few decades.  Wages and available jobs have deteriorated for some groups, especially men without high-school diplomas and men working in manufacturing.  This is a large group so this change is often covered in the news.

Uncertainty is far higher.  Americans, overall, may be wealthier than in the past, but faster change and destructive technology have created more uncertain times in the labor market.  There are not many cradle to grave jobs left.  This might seem like bad news for those who have forgotten the messages contained in “The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit”.

Plus the technology of connectiveness makes the world a less connected place.  Our interface with so many businesses are with computers, recordings, algorithms, websites, instead of people.  No mater how good these contacts are, none of them are much of a match for a human voice that asks, “How are you?  How can I help?” and means it.

When we are turned into numbers instead of names and when we lose human contact, we feel caught in more of a hostile, frustrating, uncaring habitat.

The difference between the rich and the poor everywhere makes many people unhappy.  The US has one of the worst discrepancies between the top and bottom 10% of wealth.  This is good if you want to be really rich.  The US is a great place to become rich but we Americans need to reduce this income discrepancy.

Yet the fact remains that wealth is growing around the world and that US standards and growth are among the best.

One of the core principles of our investing and business philosophy for almost 50 years has been to live, bank and invest where it is best for you, not just where you were born.  This does NOT mean that where you were born and live is not the best place to be or to invest.  

Merri and I have lived all over the world, the US, London, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Isle of Man, England, Germany and Hong Kong.  We choose to live in the USA.   This is the best place for us, for now, based on our  particular circumstances.  Yet we are not investing in US shares.  The US economy and stock market have incredible opportunity, but right now investors pay way too much for the US shares.  The USA is a great place to be but the US stock market as a whole is overvalued.

Europe is a great place to be right now as well and the MSCI USA Index Price to Book Value is 40% higher than the MSCI Europe Index.  The US Index’s average dividend yield is 71% lower than Europe’s.

keppler chart

The best value is the Keppler Developed Markets Top Value Portfolio.  The price to book value of this portfolio is 1.27 compared to the MSCI US index of 2.81.   We can can enjoy the benefits of living in the US, or wherever is best us, but we can also invest in stocks where they give us the best value.

Here are three ways to change our perceptions so we can enjoy and profit from the “Good Now Days”.

#1: Realize that it is human nature to look at the past through rose colored glasses as well as to resist change.  We can avoid making this error and look for ways that such incorrect thinking creates value in the here and now.

#2: Measure the here and now in factual mathematical terms instead of drama laden daily news.  Use financial information instead of advertising driven, subscription based economic news.

#3:  We can look for and at the current successes all around us instead of focusing on failures.  We can seek understanding of why these successes are working now and look for ways to incorporate such lessons into our lives.

These three steps can help us create a fab lifestyle of excitement, adventure and fulfillment right now.

Gary

(1) http://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-disagree-with-voters-who-see-u-s-worse-off-today-than-in-1960s-1463061602

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

How to Really Make America Great Again


What does  it take for us to make America great again?   The answer can be summed in three words, “Change… Our… Perception”.

One of the core principles of our investing and business philosophy for almost 50 years has been to live, bank and invest where  it is best for you, not just where you were born.  This does NOT mean that where you were born and lived is not the best place to be or to invest.

This is why Merri and I are living in he USA and investing in US real estate but not US shares.   The chart below shows that the USA is a great place to be.

ecd char

OECD chart in Economist magazine (1).

However, if one listens to the various politicians stumping for office, it would seem as if the country has become a basket case.  This incorrect dialogue can throw our perspective astray, so let’s readjust our view by looking at some facts:

#1: Industrialized society has seen a six times increase in wealth in the last century.

#2:  Almost everyone is richer but most of the world has become cynical. Modern communications allows us to better see growing discrepancies between the rich and poor. Few people have confidence in governments, big business, or even some churches.

#3: This growing gap between the rich and the poor is leading to greater and greater turmoil, hatred and war.

This anger ignores the fact that we have all become better off and the USA is one of the greatest places to live.

The OECD began publishing a “Better Life Initiative” in May 2011.   The attempt is to bring together internationally comparable measures of well-being.

Well Being includes: Housing, Income, Jobs, Community, Education, Governance, Health, Life Satisfaction, Safety and Work-life balance.

The US has highest net disposable income,  household net financial wealth and personal earnings, by far.  See the latest findings as of May 2016 at the OECD website (1).   The US ranks well in almost every category.

Warren Buffett has a message about this for presidential candidates who have been spreading doom and gloom about the United States.  He says:  “America is great, and her children will inherit a better country than the previous generation. The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history.”

Economic fundamentals support Buffet’s claim.

The tidal flow of economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  As the global population grows, new technology allows a larger population to be increasingly productive.  Population (demand) and production (supply) grow.   These are the underlying ground swells that push a rising tide of wealth in the global economy.  We have a growing population, improved technology and increased production.  This means there are more services and products (supply) and more people to buy them (demand).

Wealth is growing around the world.  The US growth is one of the best of the developed worlds. 

The Federal Reserve Statistical Release of March 10, 2016 for the fourth quarter of 2015 shows that the net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $86.8 trillion.  The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $758 billion.  The value of real estate rose over 450 billion.

Financial Accounts of the United States Flow of Funds, Balance Sheets, and Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: (Source Federal Reserve) (2).

Federal Reserve

There is, however, a growing inequality of wealth.   The US has one of the worst discrepancies between the top and bottom 10% of wealth.  This is good if you want to be really rich.  The US is a great place to become rich.

The difference between the rich and the poor makes many people unhappy.  We Americans need  to work on that, so it is an opportunity.

We may not personally be able to totally change all inequality, but we can help.  We can do many things to assure that we are not among the poor and to make sure that what we do also helps reduce income inequality.

This is why I named our course on value investing the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  We need profit from our investments, but also need our investments to have a purpose that is meaningful to us as individuals.

This is also why I am not investing in US shares.  Many factors such as natural resources, efficiency, distribution of wealth and confidence cause a steady rise and fall of value of shares.

There is so much confidence in the US right now that investors pay way too much for the US shares.

This is why we need to always seek value.  The US is a great place to be but the US stock market as a whole is overvalued.

The MSCI USA Index Price to Book Value is 40% higher than the MSCI Europe Index.  The US index’s average dividend yield is 71% lower than Europe’s.

keppler chart

The best value is the Keppler Developed Markets Top Value Portfolio.  The price to book value of this portfolio is 1.27 compared to the MSCI US index of 2.81.   You can enjoy the benefits of living in the US, or wherever is best for you, but invest in stocks where they give you the best value.

Gary

(1) http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/06/daily-chart-1

(2) http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=BLI#

(3) https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

Investing Alternatives With Value


Live where you love but invest where it is best for you.  The two places are not always the same so always take a more global view.  Look for investing alternatives with value everywhere.

One of the huge tensions that creates so much stress today is that political evolution has not kept pace with commercial gains.  Many people still think of themselves as a member of one tribe or another. “I am American or I am Chinese or I am Iranian,”   They separate themselves emotionally from other human beings in this guise… yet marry them in the market place.  This is one reason why the political drama has become so.  Prime Ministers, presidents, parliamentarians, politicians and candidates of all sorts spend all their time bashing opponents instead of outlining some semblance of a a policy or plan that will guide their nations.

This is because events of all national leaders is beyond their control.   This has always been the case… leaders cannot control all those within their jurisdiction. They have even less influence with those outside their borders.  Due to technology and the logic of global economics… those living outside another nation’s borders have far more impact than ever before.

Winston Churchill acknowledged this thought when he said, “If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country. And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire.”

Pandora has well and truly opened that box so there we have it… a global economy running a tribal political world.

We cannot change this fact, but we can adapt. We can use the technology to live where we love but invest and earn where it is best for us.

For example, a reader wrote:  Hello Gary…I am coming to Ecuador soon, hopefully with my husband.  I wonder if you can give me a recommendation for a bank or banks in Ecuador to use.  Have you been wiring funds back and forth and can you give any pointer on how best to do that? What to watch out for?

Our advice is to not put more than you need in an Ecuador bank.

I replied:  We used Banco Pichincha but mainly just live off ATM from a US account and or wire in larger amounts to buy real estate only as it is needed.

Funds over $2,000 coming out of Ecuador are now taxed at 5%. Put in $2,000 and you can only take back $1,900. That’s not a good deal.

If you deposit large amounts ($50,000 or more) be sure to clear in advance with the receiving Ecuador bank so they are satisfied that these funds come from a legitimate source.  I had a couple hundred thousand frozen and almost lost a real estate deal because a bank froze funds even though my Danish bankers emailed the fact that the funds were from our pension account.  The Ecuador bank did not accept that explanation.  Only a threatened law suit by our attorney released the funds.   Regards,

Why invest in Ecuador when global stock markets make great sense now?  There are several reasons why this may be a time to start a huge run of profits.

One reason is that statistically…. equity markets are now selling at a good value.  Michale Keppler wrote in his latest quarterly equity value analysis:

Keppler analysis

(Click on photo enlarge).

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the equally weighted World Index now stands at 15.1 %, down from 17.0 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate of 14,084 by September 30, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 20.4 %, while the lower-band value of 9,390 corresponds to an estimated compound total return of 8.8 % p.a.

Last quarter, I laid out the reasons for our optimistic outlook in detail based on the development of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values, which had grown by 8.3, 8.1, 8.8 and 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually from the turn of the century through June 30, 2012.

I also pointed out that the trend of shrinking multiples in connection with negative real interest rates for many bonds should have exhausted itself and will very likely run out of steam over the coming years. A turnaround in the valuation levels may come sooner rather than later. There is a good chance that it is happening already.

For the forecasts to be accurate we assume that each of the 18 markets included in our equally weighted World Index – these are those developed markets which have been a constituent of the MSCI World Index since its inception in December 1969 – will reach its respective expected value over the coming three to five years.

This assumption has proved to be accurate on average over long periods in the past. Like all value concepts, the warnings tend to come early as do the signs of optimism in times of severe undervaluation – like those we experience currently.

Interestingly, the former Fed Governor Alan Greenspan first warned of “Irrational Exuberance” on December 5, 1996, when the upper valuation band in our chart was first breached on the upside – even though the global bull market in equities continued another three years before the bubble burst. When Warren Buffett mentioned that stocks should “produce long-term returns far superior to bonds” in his famous article “You Pay a Very High Price in the Stock Market for a Cheery Consensus” in the Forbes issue of August 6, 1979, it took exactly three years to August 13, 1982 for one of the biggest global bull markets in stock market history to get started.

We prefer being early to being sorry.  Michael Keppler

Keppler’s analysis and thinking are in line with our study of long term equity market waves.

A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial we reviewed at our last Super Thinking + Investing & Business seminar looked at how after the 16 year 1966 to 1982 bear market ended… despite a recession just ending in the US (and lasting in most of the world till 1985) the Dow started a steady climb for 17 years.

dow-stock-chart

Click to enlarge or go to stockcharts.com

This time from 1982 to 1990 was the darkest hour… when the herd was thinking negatively but the reality was that a boom was on!   I recall how the book “Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It” by Harry E. Figgie, Jr., with Gerald J. Swanson became a New York Times best seller in the early 1990s.  Most investors had still not caught on to the fact that fortunes were being made (as the chart above shows).

Then in 1999 another bear market began and history suggests that the end of this bear is near.

We can be like the smart investors who began investing in 1982 while everyone else cried in their beer or not.

I have been increasing my equity portfolio for almost a year now and plan to continue doing so.

By all means live in and enjoy Ecuador…. just do not do all your banking and investing there!

We leave most of our funds with our investment manager Jyske Global Asset Manager (JGAM) in Denmark and when we need liquidity wire it from there.

You can learn more from JGAM Senior VP Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

The sun always shines somewhere and provides many places we might love to live.  There is also always opportunity somewhere.  Modern technology allows us the ability to live where we love but protect our savings, investments and pensions in places where profits are most likely.

Gary

Update what’s happening with investments globally and see where to invest next at our February 1-2-3, 2013

Three Rivulets in an Economic Flood

Our world turned upside down when, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stock prices plummet and the earnings on their safe savings collapse to zero return.  That  financial ruin was created very much in part by banks that were “Too Big to Fail”.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that can create a greater economic landslide.  There are numerous scandals at US and overseas big banks.  These calamities can make the safety net of “Too Big to Fail”, too small.  The disintegration that ensues could ruin average investors in three ways.

The risk is systemic because the bigger the bank, the more corrupt it seems to be.  This makes sense.  These banks have little to lose.  Why not cheat and take risks?  When fraud and speculation fail, the bank is bailed out by taxpayers.  No one, except the customer, gets too badly harmed.

Wells Fargo is an example.  Even after new regulations and backups were put in place after 2009, this entire organization continued to treat clients with complete disdain.

There are several risks.

First, banks will have more opportunity to cheat because of increased stock market turmoil.  Every part of the US stock market has reached an all time high.  Global stock market volatility has also picked up.  The world is in a period of technological, political and economic transformation.  None of the old rules are as certain as they used to be.  Nothing makes markets shakier than the unknown.

Second, the new administration will reduce bank regulations.  Reduced regulations are good for business but big overseas banks have especially taken advantage of investors and home owners.  Foreign big banks have acted with impunity and need to be regulated.

Third, we’ll see rising interest rates.  Banks will raise interest rates as fast as they can.  The key to bank profitability is “Net Interest Margin”, the difference between the rate banks pay for deposits and money and what they charge for loans. 

The chart below from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank shows that bank net interest margin has been at an all time low.  The figures also reflect how and when the US Treasury bond rates rise, that there is an even higher Net Interest Margin increase shortly after.

fed chart

When interest rates collapsed in the late 2000s, banks made extra profit one time.  Their securities portfolios rose, loan defaults slowed and the cost of deposits fell.  Yet over time as new loans brought lower yields and the one-time boosts were gone, the lower interest rates squeezed bank profit margins.

The government and the Fed will want higher rates to avoid runaway inflation.  As the government increases borrowed spending, inflation will rise higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.  The Fed will increase interest rates.  The Fed is against inflation.  There is a powerful motivation to protect the aging population as more and more boomers go onto a fixed income.   This increases the odds that as inflation picks up, the government and the Fed will be aggressive at increasing interest rates.  This will strengthen the US dollar short term but hurt the US stock market because the strong dollar reduces the value of revenue generated overseas.

The rising interest rates will be accompanied by inflation.  The government and the Fed do not want inflation but they will create it anyway.  They will spend more and reduce tax that increases US debt financed by savings from Europe, China and Japan.  Currently, America’s gross debt is more than $19 trillion, or 105 percent of GDP.  This has been sustainable in recent years because interest rates have been at historic lows.  As rates rise from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019, government interest payments will more than triple from $250 billion in 2016 to more than $800 billion in 2026.  By 2030, interest alone will represent over 14 percent of the federal budget.  If interest rates rise even higher,  Federal payments will be even greater—a one percentage point increase costs the country an additional staggering $1.6 trillion over a decade.  If interest rates returned to the record-high levels of the 1980s, the country would pay $6 trillion more in interest alone.

The dollar will fall because almost half of this debt will be owed to countries abroad, especially Japan and China.

rate charts

The U.S. dollar has soared on bets that the US will see inflation.  The U.S. dollar recently hit a one year peak.  Currencies especially in emerging markets have fallen to new lows.  The higher interest rates and stronger U.S. dollar are causing the weakest risky assets to plummet.  Interest rates on U.S. Treasury 30-year paper at 3% are triple that of Germany’s 30-year yields of barely 1%.  A closing of this gap as Europe increases its interest will create a US dollar drop.

The cost of living will rise.  Higher interest rates will push up prices for almost everything and push stock prices low.  All of this hurts banking profitability and makes it more likely that big banks will cheat more.

Here are three steps to take that can protect your investments in this scenario. 

Protection #1: Avoid Too Big to Fail Banks.  When you use a global bank, you are not using just one institution.  You are dealing with a big business that owns multiple banks in different regions.  This has costly implications for how far the bank’s equity goes, and how small safe the particular bank you choose really is.  Plus banks with two or more sub banks have more ways to take advantage of investors.  For example, one division of a bank can be recommending an investment to customers while having another unit in another country sell the investment short.  The bank makes money in three ways: creating the investment, selling the investment to customers and selling it short when the investment implodes.

Distinct national or regional entities held locally are much simpler to repair or dismantle when things go wrong.  Banks create such ringfenced operations in several places, so regulators cannot see the big picture and to keep their ripped off rewards from fines and penalties.

Use local community banks where you can know your bankers, what they are doing and where their reputations are their most important asset.

Protection #2:  Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether you like to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Invest in a diversified portfolio based on fundamental value.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches  three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

The Spring 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Emerging Markets”

Investing in this broad spectrum of good value does not mean that profits will come over night.  Often markets remain distorted for extended periods of time.

History shows, though, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

This tactic is a simple, easy and low cost way to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

The third tool Pi provides is a way to spot ideal position speculations to use sparingly to enhance performance with greater risk.

Protection #3:   Spot Distortions that Create Ideal Condition for Speculation.

Pi teaches the Silver Dip strategy.  This investing technique is only exercised when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Because of a dip in the price of silver, the Silver Dip 2015 returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.   In 2017 another precious metal speculation is even better.

silver chart

SLV share chart from www.yahoo.finance.com (1).

Imagine investing ahead of a spike like the silver spike shown above.  A new spike, but in another metal, is looming ahead.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce.  I knew I needed to share this experience with readers immediately.

In September 2015 I wrote, “The low price of silver offers special value now as silver’s price could begin to rise at any time”.

Here is what happened in the next nine months:

Shares in SLV (a silver ETF) rose from $13.50 to $19.35.  There was also a forex profit.  The British pound moved almost exactly as it did 30 years ago falling from 1.55 dollars per pound to 1.34 dollars per pound.

pound chart

Pound dollar chart at finance.yahoo.com (2)

6,451 pounds borrowed 9 months earlier at 1.55 converted to $10,000 to invest in the silver ETF SLV.   At 1.34 it only required  $86,440 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra forex profit.

This position has not run out of steam.  The price of SLV is likely to rise more though British pounds are no longer the currency to borrow.  The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows why replacing pound leverage with US dollar leverage is better.

There is a Better Metal to Speculate in Now

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Gold is the cornerstone of the Silver Dip.  When silver prices are too high or low versus gold, then the conditions become ideal for a silver speculation, if gold’s price is stable or too low.

Yet gold is one of the hardest assets to value.  As a gold bug who has been investing in gold since the mid 1970s, I know this is true.  I have seen too many predictions over the decades that have been wrong and I doubt that this will change in our lifetimes.

In early 2017, when the “Silver Dip 2017” report was released, gold did not fit the ideal criteria for speculation.  Gold was simply fairly valued.  A study in the “Silver Dip 2017” shows that the same amount of gold is needed today to buy a car, go to a movie or rent a home as was required in 1942.  The price of gold has risen 33 times since 1942, but since 1942 US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose from 1942 until 2016 47 times.  Cars jumped 36 times.  This is true of going to a movie, up 33 times or renting an apartment.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car today, you could do it.

Gold in the $1,200 range in January 2017 is a little low, but about where we would expect it should be.  Silver offers better opportunity than gold.  When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history suggests that silver is very undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.  Rarely has the ratio been as high as 80, only three times in 36 years.  The gold silver ratio was in the 70s at the beginning of 2017, an indicator that silver prices may rise faster than gold, but this ratio of 70, is not high enough to be called ideal.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) finance.yahoo.com echarts slv

(2) http://finance.yahoo.com echarts gbp-usd

 

 

Emerging Market Values Update – Bank Robbery in Reverse


See the Emerging Market Values update for the Spring of 2012.  First learn about the greatest bank robbery of all time… taking place… right now.

One of the biggest bank robberies in history is taking place… yet unlike with Ma Barker, John Dillinger and Bonnie and Clyde the Feds are not making a fuss.  That’s because these bank robberies are in reverse.

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Banks have really changed. An old bank.

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New Bank.  Car that promotes new bank near our home… the First Green Bank.

There is a well known saying “follow the money”.   In investing this is normally not true.  Wise investors invest where a lack of money creates value and a lack of money you receive from your bank tells all about this robbery.

Years ago I was asked to testify as an expert witness in a Federal fraud case on behalf of the defense team of one of my readers.  The reader had been a real estate developer who was unable to meet his commitments when his banks withdrew their lines of credit.   The point  I outlined was that after a great deal of expansion by the Fed… bank profits rose dramatically at the same time that bank lending slowed almost to a stop.  The case, by the way, was dismissed.

We have a similar scenario today.  Though banks were fed liquidity. Profits have risen significantly while lending by banks has stalled.

In 2011 bank profits soared but loans made by banks hardly rose at all.

In the first quarter of 2011 bank profits saw a 66.5 percent increase from the same period  2010… the best since mid 2007. By the third quarter, according to the FDIC’s quarterly report, banks earned $35.3 billion in profits in the quarter, up $11.5 billion from the same 2010 quarter.

Profits then rose $26 billion in the final three months of 2011— 23 percent gain over the final quarter of 2012.

At the same time, loans in 2011 did not rise.

The Bank for International Settlements issued a brief in November 2011 that explained why. The abstract said:   This paper examines whether the rescue measures adopted during the global financial crisis helped to sustain the supply of bank lending.  While stronger capitalisation sustains loan growth in normal times, banks during a crisis can turn additional capital into greater lending only once their capitalisation exceeds a critical threshold. This suggests that recapitalisations may not translate into greater credit supply until bank balance sheets are sufficiently strengthened.

We can see in this chart from the Federal Reserve how 2011 bank lending stalled and in the case of real estate loans, fell.

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The fact is banks have to make money somewhere to buck up their reserves and they do so in a process called shadow banking. Shadow banking allows banks to earn money without having to increase their capital and reserves… so their funds go into shadow banking instead of loans.

Multi Currency subscribers can read more about shadow banking at their password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to get a password here.

Meanwhile depositors at banks are earning almost nothing.

This forces investors to take greater risks to make any return at all.

One place to seek higher returns is in multi currency stock markets. For the past several decades, the best place to gain these returns has been in emerging equity markets.

Good value is now harder to find in emerging markets as they mature and as more investors’ earnings (almost zero at banks) are willing to push their equity prices everywhere beyond realistic values.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the first quarter of 2012:

Recent Developments & Outlook

Emerging Markets equities advanced again in the first quarter 2012. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 10.7 % in local currencies, 14.1 % in US dollars and 11.2 % in Euros. The Euro gained 2.6 % versus the US dollar in the first quarter 2012. It now stands at 1.3317 (USD/EUR) as compared to its year-end 2011 level of 1.2982.

All three regional indices advanced last quarter: Asia by 11.5 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 8.9 % and Latin America by 10.2 %.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

All twenty-one Emerging Markets covered here,  advanced last quarter.

The three best performing markets were Egypt (+41.3 %), Turkey (+20 %) and the Philippines (+18.6 %).

Morocco (+1.7 %), the Czech Republic (+3.8 %) as well as Indonesia and Malaysia (both up 4.9 %) fared worst last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1988 = 100) gained 14.5 % in local currencies, 19.5 in US dollars and 16.5 % in Euros last quarter.

There was no change in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the ten national MSCI markets Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.  According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected asset and earnings valuation measures:

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Here is why equity investments in Euro markets may now be more attractive than in emerging markets.

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Last week this site reviewed the values of major equity markets

The chart above was included and you can see that European shares are currently selling at a PBV (price to book value of 1.48.   Compare this to the good value major markets at 1.09 versus the world at 1.79 and major markets at 1.72.  Europe’s PE ration (price to earnings) is also low at 12.1 compared to 11.8 for emerging markets. this is significant because emerging market pe ratios have always been low due to their capital growth rather than earnings potential.

Multi Currency Subscribers can read an in depth 48 page report on all emerging market values at their password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to get a password here.

Gary

Emerging Market Value Update – January 2012


Emerging Market Value Update – January 2012

Fwd: time-photo

Photo from Time Magazine article about China and Japan trading their currencies directly rather than through the US dollar..

There is a well know saying “follow the money”.  In investing this is normally not true.  Wise investors invest where a lack of money creates value.

Looking for emerging market value, we can see two important stories that affect value in emerging markets this quarter.  

The first story relates to emerging versus major markets. For decades emerging markets offered better value than emerging.

Now investor sentiment has changed. Modern communications provide more data about emerging markets. Investors have more confidence. In addition investors…. with great reason have lost confidence in major markets.  This is not surprising with the recent sovereign debt downgrades. Some major nations debt is now in junk status.  This has created great value in major markets.  European shares especially are oversold because of the euro worries.

Demographics in the USA favor the U.S. over nearly every other rich country n the world.  Four million people reach 21 years old each year and this will eventually return home building to its previous million houses a year (right now under 700,000).  With corporate American so lean and inventories so low… growth is very likely to set in.  The creates great value in the US now.   See more on major market values here.

The second story relates to China.  China’s expansion will be an engine that will help run the global economy in to the next decade.

Recently Japan and China have agreed to promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars. This will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges and help Chinese-Japanese trade because direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs.

Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi to leave China during the transaction., the Japanese and Chinese governments said.

China is now Japan’s biggest trading partner with $340 billion in two-way transactions last year.  Yet China’s equity market has suffered which creates a special value as you’ll see below.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the third quarter of 2011 says:

Recent Developments & Outlook

Last quarter, Emerging Markets equities recovered some of the declines suffered during the first nine months of 2011. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 4.8 % in local currencies, 4.4 % in US dollars and 7.9 % in Euros.

In 2011, the Index lost 12.7 % in local currencies, 18.4 % in US dollars and 15.7 % in Euros. The Euro lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar both in the last quarter and in 2011. It finished the year at 1.2982 (USD/EUR) — 3.2 % below its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

All three regional indices advanced last quarter: Asia by 3.6 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 3.8 % and Latin America by 9.2 %.

Year to date, Asia is down 14.5 %, EMEA 9.3 % and Latin America 10 %. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Fifteen Emerging Markets advanced and six markets declined last quarter.

The three best performing markets were Thailand (+13.1 %), Peru (+12.5 %) and Malaysia (+10.9 %).

Turkey (-14.4 %), Egypt (-10.8 %) and Morocco (-7.5 %) fared worst last quarter.

In 2011, four markets were higher and seventeen markets declined.

The biggest winners last year were Indonesia (+6.7 %), South Africa (+4.5 %) and Malaysia (+2.9 %).

Egypt (-44.9 %), India (-25.4 %) and Peru (-21.4 %) performed worst in 2011.

There was one change in our performance ratings last quarter: China was upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” at the end of October.

The Top Value Model Portfolio now contains the ten national MSCI markets at equal weights:

Brazil,

China,

the Czech Republic,

Egypt,

Hungary,

Poland,

Russia,

Taiwan,

Thailand,

Turkey

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected asset and earnings valuation measures:

keppler charts

Multi Currency portfolio Subscribers can see full data on Keppler’s buy hold and sell value analysis at the Multi Currency Password Protected Site.

See how to get a Multi Currency password here

Gary

 

 

Up 26.5% in 3 months as Markets Crash


Read about my latest report for your Kindle at Amazon.com.   Amazon Prime members can borrow for Kindle free!

The data below shows how and why a good value major market was up 26.5% in a year when most stock markets crashed.

See the Global Major Market Values Update as of January 1, 2012 below.

euro

First see the major market in the euro that has skyrocketed up because it had dropped so far below reason that it offered incredible value.

The euro. Can it survive?

Excerpts from a recent article in the Financial Times question the ability of the euro to survive.  The article entitled “S&P downgrades France and Austria” by Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Robin Wigglesworth in London says:  The eurozone debt crisis returned with a vengeance on Friday as Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, downgraded France and Austria – two of the currency zone’s six triple A rated countries – as well as seven nations not in that top tier, among them Italy and Spain.

This is bad news for the euro and global economy but this is not the worst of it.  The article went on to point out:  S&P, also gave 14 of 16 countries – including France, Italy and Spain – a negative outlook, which means there is a one-in-three chance for each country of a further downgrade this year or next.

The agency downgraded France and Austria by one notch to double A plus, while it cut Italy Spain and Portugal by two notches. Portugal has now been relegated to “junk” status by the three main rating agencies following similar actions by Moody’s in July and Fitch in November. Ireland held its rating.

The downgrades reignited fears about the fiscal sustainability of the eurozone and the knock-on effect on its rescue fund, which could now lose its own triple A rating, reducing its firepower or forcing eurozone nations to increase contributions yet again.

The really bad news is that a day later S&P downgraded the eurozone bail-out fund.   This means that the eurozone’s bail-out fund without a AAA credit rating, will have a harder time containing the euro debt crisis.   The cost of holding the euro together will rise.

Deeply profound problems like this will keep economic markets in turmoil for some time.   This turmoil however makes finding value more important than ever before.

The way value can surprise us with a 26.5% jump is shown below.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro, or whatever currency format emerges in Europe,  lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part because in these difficult times investors ALWAYS overestimate the risk and create extra value.

This is why the bad boy of European markets last quarter made investors a cool 26.5% n just three months.

This is also why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for the last quarter to January 1, 2012.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global Equities had reached their 2011 high in April and after that declined for five consecutive months before recovering again in the last three months. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the year up 7.8 % in the fourth quarter),  (+7.6 % in US dollars and up +11.2 % in euro).

In 2011, the MSCI World Index declined 5.5 % both in local currencies and in US dollars and 2.4 % in Euros.

The Euro lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar both in the last quarter and in 2011. It finished the year at 1.2982 (USD/EUR) — 3.2 % below its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

Eighteen markets advanced in the final quarter 2011, six markets declined.

Ireland had the highest return (+26.5 %), followed by Denmark (+11.8 %) and the US (+11.5 %).

Greece (-25.1 %), Portugal (-6.5 %) and New Zealand (-4.2 %) performed worst last quarter.

The best performing markets in 2011 were Ireland (+17.5 %), New Zealand (+5.7 %) and the US (+1.4 %).

Greece (-61.5 %), Austria (-34.3 %) and Finland (-29.6 %) were last year’s worst performing markets. Performance is shown in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

Fundamentals have improved remarkably in 2011 moving in the opposite direction of stock prices: Compared with their end of 2010 levels, book values, 12-month trailing earnings and dividends of the Equally Weighted World Index grew by 9.1 %, 9.3 % and 19.1 %, respectively, last year. In addition, opportunity costs — i.e. the low interest rate environment — continue to make stocks look attractive.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights.

According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected variables. To demonstrate the current attractiveness of global equities in general, we also show the key variables of the MSCI World Index as of December 31, 1999, when the MSCI World Index reached its all time-high both in price and in terms of valuation. Compared with those levels, the MSCI World Index is now 59.2 percent cheaper. This explains to a large extent why the developed markets had been a loser in the first decade of the new millennium.

keppler-charts

Based on their current valuation levels, I believe that the second decade should turn out just fine for global equities in general and better yet for the Major Markets

Which portfolio would you rather have? While nobody in a MSCI World Index at the valuation levels experienced at the end of the last millennium, global equity investors should ask themselves what makes more sense today:

* invest in US equities at a premium of 64 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

* invest in the MSCI World Index at a premium of 31 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index, or

* invest in the Top Value Markets at a discount of 10 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 17.6 %, down from 19.2 % last quarter — see chart below.

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A look at the Irish Stock Exchange ISEQ General Index shows how the shares recovered after investors paniced mid 2011 and fled this market.

irish-market-chart

Irish ETF

iShares ETF managers offers the MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (Symbol EIRL NYSE) U.S.-listed ETF which provides exposure to the Irish economy.

EIRL is linked to the MSCI Ireland Investable Market 25/50 Index, a benchmark that is designed to measure the performance of stocks in the top 99% by market capitalization of equity securities listed on stock exchanges in Ireland.  The index consisted of appx. 20 securities, with large allocations to the materials (25%), consumer staples (23%), and industrials (18%) sectors.  Large holdings include  CRH PLC, an Irish building materials group, the food company Kerry Group (11%) and drug development firm Elan Corporation (9%).

Since Ireland is a neutrally ranked market (by Keppler) and has enjoyed this last quarter spurt… others markets make better value sense now.

See which markets and why the Danish market is now in sell territory at our upcoming Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.

Multi Currency portfolio subscribers can see Keppler’s full analysis of major markets at the password protected site here.

Learn how to obtain a Multi Currency portfolio password here.

Gary

 

Global Emerging Markets Value Update – October 2011


Look for emerging market value.  Times and conditions are changing.  We cannot count on emerging markets rising as they have in the past. See three stories of change, emerging markets and value below.

Talk about change!   Story #1 is about the weather. This last week we were in Wyoming photographing wildlife and playing with grandkids. Sunday and Monday we were in short sleeves.

antelope

On Monday afternoon the antelope looked like this.

Temperatures were in the 70s… the sky a bowl of pure powder blue and I was getting sunburned.

By Wednesday the photos I took of the antelope had changed along with temperature… down to 12 degrees F!

antelope

Antelope Wednesday morn.

That ended my thoughts of taking our granddaughters Sequoia and Teeka hiking.

gary-scott

Here we are in the afternoon snow.

With the weather it’s pretty easy to bring along extra layers of clothes… look outside in the morning and dress perfectly for the entire day. This was the exception. Perfect morning clothes would have left us frozen by evening.

Story # 2 is about currency volatility.  This is also a time of rapid currency change and unfortunately we cannot look out each morning to know which currency to choose.

A reader recently sent this note.  Dear Gary,  Huge thanks on your insightful articles.  I read them all the time and many few times over as they provide a lot of interesting information ahead of time.

I wrote to you before asking for advice/opinion on China and the Australian market/dollar.

I need to make a life decision very soon as to my apartment to sell or keep for another year.  All of my friends tell me to keep it as it is in a very good location, I would say a prime location that I rent all the time without a problem.  My concern is about China and commodities which could very slip as it already happened in Europe and other places.

What are your general consensus about China in the next 2 years or a  year? Do you honestly think it could be a bubble about to burst?

It is my life decision because my apartment is the only asset I have.  So if I could sell it before the bubble burst I will be smiling or very sad.. all depends on China as Australia is very closely connected.  My sincere thanks,

My reply is:  First, understand that the big wave of economic growth in China is over.   Future growth can be expected but is more complicated and less dependable.

Any investor’s position should be based on when they can buy… when they might need to sell and what and where they might need the money.  There’s no way that I could answer this reader’s question without knowing all these details.

You can get a glimpse of the problem in an October 24, 2011 Financial Times article entitled “Cost of credit on the rise in Asia” by Henny Sender that says:   Asian companies are discovering that the cost of raising money in the region, especially in US dollars, has risen even for those with strong credit ratings while for junk-rated firms the credit markets have been almost totally closed since June.

While the severity of the problem varies across the region, the trend illustrates that just as Asia’s economies have not decoupled from the west, neither have its capital and banking markets.  Given the uncertainty stalking the European and US markets, banks have less liquidity and the big investment houses hit by fund redemptions are pulling back from Asian bonds. The risk is that the lack of financing will erode economic growth, in turn deterring capital flows to Asia.

This means that investing in emerging currencies versus major market currencies must be viewed as a high risk speculation with risk of short term volatility.

Next, it is not possible to predict what currencies will do in the short term. Look at the volatility of the Australian to US dollar in the past year.

australian dollar chart

This is great motion for traders who are on top of currency moves by the minute and hour. For most of us, this is a formula for disaster if we try and take a position based on market timing.  These ups and downs are based almost entirely on unpredictable human emotion… and events beyond imagination.

The way to deal with this risk is… invest for the medium and long term and look for value!

This is why seeking value is so important.  Story #3 is about value as the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.  Value means you are buying what is NOT in demand at a price lower than the object’s or share’s worth.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the third quarter of 2011 says:

Emerging Markets stocks have suffered their largest quarterly setback since December 2008.

Last quarter, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) declined 15 % in local currencies, 22.6 % in US dollars and 16.3 % in Euros.

The Emerging Markets Benchmark now stands at $ 1,110 and € 912, respectively.

Year-to-date, the Index is down 16.8 % in local currencies and 21.9 % in both US dollars and in Euros.

The Euro lost 7.5 % versus the US dollar in the last three months and finished the third quarter at 1.3417 USD/EUR — basically unchanged from its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

All three regional indices declined in the second quarter: Asia was down 17 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 12.3 % and Latin America lost 11.6 %.

In the last nine months, Asia lost 17.5 %, EMEA gave up 12.6 % and Latin America 17.6 %.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

There was no place to hide in the Emerging Markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: All markets declined both last quarter and year-to-date.

South Africa (-1.3 %), Turkey and Morocco (both down 3.3 %) lost least last quarter.

Hungary (-33.6 %), China (-25.2 %) and Poland (-19.7 %) fared worst.

Indonesia (-2.2 %), South Africa (-2.7 %) and the Czech Republic (-5.6 %) performed best since the end of 2010.

Egypt (-38.3 %), Peru (-30.1 %) and China (-24.4 %) lost most year-to-date.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1988 = 100) declined 17 % in local currencies, 25.2 % in US dollars and 19.2 % in Euros. The Top Value Model Portfolio (December 1988 = 100) now stands at $ 21,403 and € 17,585.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio declined 17.9 % in local currencies and 22.7 % in US dollars and in Euros.

There was no change in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine national MSCI markets Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value)   Chile            India           Indonesia       Korea.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS China        Colombia      Malaysia      Mexico         Morocco      Peru    Philippines     South Africa.

Last week markets were crashing.   This week they have been strongly rising… because it appears that the euro may survive.   I predict that we’ll see plenty more euro troubles and that we’ll see plenty more up and down currency and market motion caused mainly by unpredictable market sentiment.

The way to cut through this noise and profit from this volatility is to seek value.

Gary

Learn more about Multi Currency investing here.

Belong to the International Club

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are accepting discounted membership in three tranches.  This is the last offer of the first tranche at $349 and expires Monday March 26th 2017 . 

The next tranche will be offered at $399 before it rises to $449 and then the full fee.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

Read  Cost of credit on the rise in Asia

Global Major Market Values Updates – October 2011


Here is a Global Major Market Values Update as of October 2011

euro

The euro. Can it survive?

Excerpts from a recent article in the Telegraph question the ability of the euro to survive.  The article says: The single currency is close to collapse.  With Europe on the brink of a disaster, the euro must be reconstituted as an entity based on economic reality, not ideological folly.   Crisis: the Franco-German partnership which lies at the heart of the European project is fracturing as never before.

Yet again, Europe stands on the brink of abject disaster, apparently unable to resolve its differences. A monetary union that was meant to bring former enemies together, binding them to each other via irreversible economic integration, is succeeding only in tearing them apart. It is a crisis that this newspaper has consistently warned of since the single currency’s creation; it gives no pleasure to see our predictions come true.
With a meltdown in the sovereign debt markets fast metastasising into an all-embracing economic and political calamity, the Continent’s position has rarely seemed quite so imperilled since the days of the Second World War. Most worrying is that the Franco-German partnership which lies at the heart of the European project is fracturing as never before, with deep divisions over almost every aspect of the grand rescue plan.

Deeply profound questions like this will keep economic markets in turmoil for some time.  No one knows the answer which makes finding value more important than ever before.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro, or whatever currency format emerges in Europe,  lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for this quarter to October 2011.

Global equity markets just ended their worst quarter since December 2008.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the third quarter 2011 at LC 1,921 (-14.8 %), $ 2,744 (-16.6 %) and € 1,085 (-9.9 %), respectively. Year-to-date, the MSCI World Index is down 12.3 % in local currencies and 12.2 % in US dollars and in Euros. The Euro lost 7.5 % versus the US dollar in the last three months and finished the third quarter at 1.3417 USD/EUR — basically unchanged from its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

One market advanced and twenty-three markets declined in the third quarter 2011.

New Zealand — the only winning market — gained 0.6 %, followed by Japan (-10.7 %) and Switzerland (-11 %).

Greece (-42.3 %), Austria (-32.7 %) and Italy (-25.6 %) performed worst last quarter.

Year-to-date, the situation was very similar: the best performing markets were New Zealand (+10.3 %) — again the only winning market — Ireland (-7.1 %) and Spain (-10.3 %).

Greece (-48.7 %), Austria (-33 %) and Finland (-30.6 %) performed worst in the last nine months. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

 The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the third quarter at LC 25,063 (-22.6 %), $ 23,306 (-26.5 %) and € 9,216 (-20.6 %).

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio lost 20.9 % in local currencies and 20.5 % in US dollars and Euros, underperforming the benchmark by 7.8, 9.9 and 10.7 percentage points in local currencies, US dollars and Euros, respectively.

Last quarter’s underperformance was the worst since September 1992. I identified four main reasons for this: One, the cap.-weighted MSCI World beat the equally-weighted World Index.

Two, the Top Value markets underperformed both. And three, the US-dollar gained 7.5 % versus the Euro last quarter. Over the last 41 years, the MSCI World Index returned 7.8 % p.a. compared to 10.8 % for the equally weighted World index and 15.1 % p.a. for the Top Value markets, while the US dollar lost 2.2 % p.a. versus the Euro (DEM before 1999) on average.

I strongly believe that the long-term return-relationship between cap-weighting, equal-weighting and Top Value will continue — unless one believes that US stocks will outperform the rest of the world indefinitely.

Our empirical research shows, however, that there is a high probability that the Top Value Model Portfolio will recover and outperform in the future.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the equally-weighted World Index now stands at 19.2 %, up from 13.1 % three months ago. We have to be right only directionally and not necessarily in magnitude to provide superior returns to our investors.

Photos from Oct 19, 2011

Keppler’s good value buy candidates are Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway.

His analysis shows that the bad value markets are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.S.A.

Neutrally ranked markets are Australia, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Since five of the six value markets are in Europe a three fund portfolio could provide a spread that is likely to catch the value… 1/6th in a Norwegian Equity Fund, 1/6th in a Japanese Equity fund and 2/3rds a good value European fund.

Norway is easy. Since 2010 there has been a Norway single-country ETF the Global X FTSE Norway 30 ETF (symbol-NORW).

The fund’s underlying cap-weighted index follows Norway’s broad equity performance of the country skewed heavily in Energy (41.4%).  Financials 18.0%, Telecommunications 11.3%, Materials 10.4%, Consumer Goods 8.8%, Consumer Services 7.3%, Industrials 2.2%, and Technology 0.5% combine the rest.

The largest percentage in the 30 share index is held by Statoil (STO) 18.9%, Dnb Nor 14.5%, Telenor A/S 11.0%, Seadrill 5.6%, Yara International 5.4%, and Norsk Hydro 5.1%. The expense ratio comes is a low 0.50%.

There are numerous Japan ETfs.  Three examples are:

iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ)

SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan ETF (JPP)

WisdomTree Japan High-Yielding Equity Fund (DNL)

The same is true for Austria, France, Germany and Italy.

For example the iShaes series covers each market.

iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund  (EWG:US)

iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund (EWO)

iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ)

Or check out a European Value Fund we reviewed in our recent message Believe in Value.

Gary

Learn more about Multi Currency investing here.

Belong to the International Club

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are accepting discounted membership in three tranches.  This is the last offer of the first tranche at $349 and expires Monday March 26th 2017 . 

The next tranche will be offered at $399 before it rises to $449 and then the full fee.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

The single currency is close to collapse

Pivotal Week – Emerging Markets Value Update – Day 4


Emerging markets grow in importance as we draw closer to a dramatic global social economic shift.

The change is taking place in part because the democratic process is working.

Yesterday’s New York Times article “Vote on Boehner Plan Delayed Amid Opposition” says: House Republican leaders were forced on Tuesday night to delay a vote scheduled on their plan to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, as conservative lawmakers expressed skepticism and Congressional budget officials said the plan did not deliver the promised savings.

The pushback on the bill was the latest chaotic twist in the fiscal fracas on Capitol Hill, as the clock ticked closer to Aug. 2, when the Obama administration has warned that the nation risks defaulting on its bills. The scramble to come up with a plan that could be put to a vote, now moved from Wednesday to Thursday, represents a test of Speaker John A. Boehner’s ability to lead his restive caucus. The expected showdown over the legislation is the culmination of months of efforts by Tea Party-allied freshmen and fellow conservatives to demand a fundamentally smaller government in exchange for raising the federal borrowing limit.

Many people in America want a smaller government and enough of their representatives are now demanding this… so this process could in the long run be good.  The question is how fast will there be a shift.

Whether this current change comes at a fast or slow pace it will come and there will be some pain… but not for those who adapt to the restructuring.

Keep in mind this is a process that has been going on now since 1971 when the US dollar was unpegged from gold.

One the subject of gold due to the purchasing power risks associated with the current socio-economic changes, we have interviewed Thomas Fischer JGAM Sr. Vice president about multi currency diversification and…

fischer-checkan
Thomas Fischer (right) and  Rich Checkan (left).

we also interviewed Rich Checkan of the precious metals dealers Asset Strategies International.

You can also hear both recent interviews on where to invest globally now.  Order here $9.99.

The Big Problem

The main problem however goes way beyond politics to the energy source of industrialization over the past 300 years. That energy has not just been gas but has been fossil fuels accelerating a shift of farmers from rural to urban and suburban environments.   As these farmers moved from the farm to the factory they dramatically improved their productivity at a very low educational cost.  Their enhanced wages increased their consumption.

The burst of increased affluence over the past several centuries has been fueled by cheap labor and fossil fuels.

In this era big business followed the path of least resistance wherever labor was cheapest in the world.  Manufacturing jumped from the US to Germany and Japan.  Then as labor costs rose in these countries the move was to Hong Kong… then to the Tigers (Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia).  Then there was a shift to China, Latin America, India.  Now places like Cambodia and Vietnam supply a lot of the really low cost labor.

As the world runs out of farmers and as the farmers left become connected, this cost of labor everywhere is rising.   More government… higher social costs and the rising cost of fossil fuel all have an impact to increase labor expense everywhere.

This is causing inflation in emerging nations as this chart from the Bloomberg Businessweek article “Slamming on Brakes Shows”

bloomberg-businessweek-chart

The rising emerging market interest rates  creates a current five point economic dilemma.

Point #1: The rise in emerging markets puts upwards pressure on interest rates everywhere.

Point #2: The rising rates pushes up prices in the emerging markets also creates inflationary pressures in the Western countries who buy so many of the emerging imports.

Point #3: Emerging market inflation reduces purchasing power of emerging currencies exactly when major currencies are losing purchasing power due to overburdening debt.

Point #4: Emerging market inflation is likely to slow exports which increases the need for emerging countries (such as China) to call in debt from the US and  Western Europe at a time when these countries are least able to pay.

Point #5:  Rising emerging market interest rates puts downwards pressure on emerging stock markets.

In the past, emerging markets were better valued than major markets.  This meant that one easy diversification was to reduce positions in major stock markets and increase positions in emerging markets.

The five points above and increased emerging market costs mean that we can wantonly just jump into any emerging market. The Chinese market for example is overheated.

However, we must choose the correct markets with care… because there is always something we do not know… especially in emerging markets.

This is why seeking value is so important. Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.  Value means you are buying what is NOT in demand at a price lower than the object’s or share’s worth.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the second quarter of 2011 says:

After recovering in April, Emerging Markets stocks gave up territory again in both May and June. Last quarter, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) declined 2.7 % in local currencies, 1.1 % in US dollars and 3.2 % in Euros. 

Year-to-date, the Index was down 2 % in local currencies, up 0.9 % in US dollars and down 6.7 % in Euros.

The Euro gained 2.2 % versus the US dollar in the second quarter and finished the first half of the year at 1.4499 USD/EUR — 8.1 % above its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

All three regional indices declined in the second quarter: Asia was down 1.2 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 3.3 % and Latin America lost 5.8 %.

In the first half of the year Asia lost 0.5 %, EMEA gave up 0.3 % and Latin America 6.8 %. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Eight Emerging Markets advanced and thirteen markets declined last quarter.

The three best performing markets were Chile (+6.1 %), Indonesia (+6.0 %) and Malaysia (+3.2 %).

Peru (-15.2 %), Brazil (-7.9 %) and Russia (-7 %) fared worst last quarter.

Year-to-date, nine markets were higher, eleven markets declined and one market was unchanged.

The biggest winners so far this year were the Czech Republic (+10.2 %), Hungary (+7.9 %) and Indonesia (+7.3 %).

Peru (-26.7 %), Egypt (-22.1 %) and India (-8.5 %) performed worst since the end of 2010.

There was no change in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine national MSCI markets Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights. According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value)   Chile            India           Indonesia       Korea.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS China        Colombia      Malaysia      Mexico         Morocco      Peru    Philippines     South Africa.

The economic emergence of poor countries is good. More people will have more wealth in the long run.  The political struggle to reduce debt in rich nations will also help.  An improved balance between the rich and the poor created through opportunity for all will enhance peace efforts and reduce the likelihood of terrorism, revolution and war.

Yet these positive evolutions are slow, often hard to see and keep in perspective.  Such macro shifts also brings pain for those who do not adapt to the change.

Seeing and embracing change are as hard as seeing into the future… but value is an easy way to stay in touch with evolution and is easier to see!   We thank Michael Keppler for these valuable statistics.

Gary

Join Merri and me at our next seminar as we look at ways to gain from the international economic shifts in the year ahead.

Enrollment details for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here.

We have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as referrers, dealers and distributors.

What a match… tens of thousands of readers, many wanting to earn globally… meeting some great… really unique global businesses tied together with our communication system that can bring all this: training…. communicating and networking.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

After attending our International business and investing seminar on October 7-8-9, you will be qualified to enroll for referrer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

I’ll explain the first specific way you can tap into greater power for everlasting health and wealth in a moment.

We provide three e-courses that can help you develop your own micro business that we designed to help you earn anywhere you live in the world.

International Business Made EZ ($299)

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher ($499)

Event – Full How to Earn With  Your Own Seminars ($349)

We have started the beta program, and the good news is that we are not charging a penny more more.  Our International Business Made EZ online course and our International Business Made EZ seminars remain the same price though we’ll now offer subscribers an entrance to doing business with many turnkey businesses.

The overall service can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

Our first turnkey business program is Jyske global Asset Management because our activities as publishers has a synchronicity with Jyske and JGAM.   We have been able to combine our training, communications and lead generation abilities with their financial organization.

Business is always a little more complicated when it entails financial products so we have created a beta program to develop this system.

A referrer does not have to be a registered as an investment adviser but JGAM does have a due diligence requirement. JGAM will also expect a certain amount of referrals per year though this amount has not been determined… hence this beta offer.

JGAM pays a percentage of their fee to the referrer up to a maximum 25% of their fee. This not only offers an excellent income generating opportunity but creates a potential long term income stream because JGAM keeps paying the fee as long as the client remains a client. Fees are paid on a quarterly basis.

There is also potential for growing long term income because JGAM pays the referrer based on the total assets under management.  If a referred client makes additional payments, the referrer will be paid on the total amount.

For example if an referrer refers a client who invests a minimum $100,000 and the annual fee is 2%, the referrer earns $500 per annum basic fee (as long as the customer remains with JGAM)… plus if the assets grow either through portfolio growth or added deposits… so too does the referrer’s fee.

We have set our first training JGAM training session for October 10, 2012.

This program will allow subscribers to any of our  online courses who have attended an International Business Made EZ seminar to become referrers for JGAM.

We have been working with Jyske Bank for over 20 years and Jyske Global Asset Management, a Jyske Bank wholly owned subsidiary. We started talking to Thomas Fischer Senior VP about an referral program for some time.  Finally,we introduced this opportunity for the first time at our June 2011 seminar.  The response was overwhelming.

Jyske Bank employs a staff of about 4,000 and operates 116 Danish branches, which makes it the second largest independent Danish bank. They offer a full range of financial solutions to retail as well as small and medium-sized corporate clients.

We have always liked Jyske because they are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and offer very simple but sophisticated multi currency investing services.  They are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and dealers.

We have especially enjoyed our business relation with Jyske because being open and honest is one of the core values of the bank group. Traditionally, Jyske formulates and communicates its values – and the way they understand and live by them – to the surrounding world. They work hard offering shareholders, customers and employees balanced opportunity.

We especially like the fact that Jyske employees are not paid bonuses.  No multi million pay outs are in the system that might temp staff to distort earnings or take undue risks.

Here is how you can apply for this program.

To start as a referrer,  there is first the compliance process with Jyske Bank.

Once that process is complete, our IBEZ system helps educate and assist referrer.

First… once a referrer has been approved by JGAM, and the referrer has completed our online course International Business Made EZ course and attended one of our  international investing and business seminars they can attend an exclusive training seminar at our farm.

We have a…

little-horse-creek

creekside…

little-horse-creek

seminar hall where…

little-horse-creek

unless the group grows too large, we’ll meet.   We’ll have lunch  on the deck looking over Little Horse Creek.

JGAM and our company conduct this one day intensive training for agents the day after each International Investing and Business seminar.

The first such seminar will be conducted Monday, October 10, 2011 immediately after our October 7-8-9 International Investing and Business Seminar in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

Part of the JGAM program is designed so we can assist referrers by referring readers in their locale to them.  So for example if a referrer is in Miami, we will send special emails to our readers in that area, help organize mini seminars… etc.

We can zero in as close as 20 miles to a location so for example we can send a separate email to every reader within 20 miles of the address of a referrer.  And although we won’t release the names in that area, we can send them a note of the opportunity.

We will also provide a referrer communication forum and update training as well as portfolio and investing ideas.  We have general plans at this stage but find the best way to develop systems is to refine through action. We expect our beta program this year to clarify how we can best help our readers become referrers and how we can help them succeed.

Step one is to start the compliance process with JGAM.  Thomas Fischer  can send you the Introducer Questionnaire and Terms of Business.

Thomas Fischer’s email is fischer@jgam.com

This will begin the process of establishing a relationship with JGAM.  Once this relation is approved and verified, then you will be able to enroll in the referrer training.

Satisfaction Guaranteed.  Three Guarantees.

There is no guarantee that JGAM will approve your application as a referrer just because you enroll in the seminar or take the online course so we make two special guarantees.

First Guarantee. Regarding the online course International Business Made EZ.  Enroll in this course. Take it and if you are not satisfied for any reason within 30 days… let us know and we’ll give you a full refund.

Second Guarantee. Enroll in our October 7-8-9 International Business & Investing Seminar.  I’ll send you a recording of the June seminar now so you better understand what these seminars are and how they help you.  If you are not happy with what you hear, let us know within 30 days and we’ll give you a full refund. You keep the recorded seminar as our thanks.

Third Guarantee.  Your earnings potential has this guarantee.  First, any time between now and October… before you attend the International Business and Investing seminar if you fail to qualify as a JGAM referrer agent or change your mind before attending the International Business and Investing seminar you can ask for a full refund.

Enrollment details for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here.

See Slamming on the Brakes at Bloomberg Business Week

Pivotal Week – International Investments: Day 1


This is a pivotal week for international investments…here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for this quarter to July 2011.

Recent Developments & Outlook

After a strong first quarter, global equity markets were little changed on balance in the last three months. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the second quarter 2011 at LC 2,255 (-0.6 %), $ 3,290 (+0.5 %) and € 1,204 (-1.7 %), respectively.

Year-to-date, the MSCI World Index was up 2.9 % in local currencies and 5.3 % in US dollars. However, due to the strong recovery of the Euro versus the US dollar, it declined 2.6 % year-to-date in Euros. The Euro gained 2.2 % versus the US dollar in the second quarter and finished the first half of the year at 1.4499 USD/EUR — 8.1 % above its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

Seven markets advanced in the second quarter 2011, sixteen markets declined and one market was unchanged. Ireland had the highest return (+5.3 %), followed by Germany (+4 %) and New Zealand (+2.8 %). Greece (-18.3 %), Finland    (-9.8 %) and Denmark (-8.5 %) performed worst last quarter.

The best performing markets during the last six months were New Zealand (+9.6 %), Ireland (+8.4 %), France and Spain (both up 6.9 %). Finland (-13.1 %), Israel (-11.3 %) and Greece (-11 %) were the worst performing markets in the first half of 2011. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the second quarter at LC 32,361 (unchanged), $ 31,711 (+2 %) and € 11,605 (-0.2 %). Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio gained 2.1 % in local currencies, 8.2 % in US dollars and 0.1 % in Euros, underperforming the benchmark by 0.8 percentage points in local currencies but outperforming in US dollars and Euros by 2.9 and 2.7 percentage points, respectively.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom at equal weights. According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 13.1 %, up from 11.9 % three months ago.

Fwd: Keppler

JGAM warns about the turmoil in its weekly update and says:

Week 18 July – 22 July

European Monetary Fund

After days of speculations, the financial markets could finally take a sigh of relief when the European leaders last night announced the much anticipated bail-out agreement.

Earlier this week, risky assets carefully started to rebound anxiously awaiting the result, however optimism really took off Thursday as a draft proposal circulated the media.

The positive sentiment continued into Friday as the summit announcement didn’t disappoint expectations.

The European leaders last night agreed on a new EUR 109bn bail-out of Greece, with an additional commitment of EUR 37bn expected from private bondholders.

On top of that the leaders have also agreed to lower the loan costs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal by 100-200 basis points, and to prolong maturing debt and to give the temporary bail-out fund, the European financial facility stability (EFSF) additional powers as well. The bail-out fund will in the future be able to act preemptively by quickly helping countries such as Spain and Italy if needed, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) style ability. The agreement is intended to stop the European debt turmoil and to protect Spain and Italy from any contagion effects.

Since Monday, the European common currency has appreciated with as much as 3% versus the US dollar, and is currently trading in the 1.4325 to 1.4425 range. During the same period, the interest (cost of borrowing) on the Italian 10 year government bond has fallen with 85 basis points from 6% to 5.15%, and by 400 basis points from 17.8% to 13.8% on the similar Greek issuance.

The risk now is whether the new agreement is big enough and/or whether it will follow the same pattern as the previous and eventually disappoint the market.

Fitch, the rating agency, is today warning the market that they will reduce Greece to “restricted default” should the intended prolonging of the maturing Greek debt go ahead as planned.

We expect a bumpy road ahead.

The managers at JGAM responded.  On 14 July JGAM’s Investment Committee held its ordinary, monthly meeting and reported .

In the weeks leading up to the meeting we had reduced the overall risk in our portfolios by moving gold and Swiss francs (CHF).  This week, the euro crisis has escalated with the downgrading of Portugal and Ireland to junk by Moody`s.

Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, the Prime Minister of Italy, rubbed salt in the open debt wounds, when he called his Finance Minister Mr. Giulio Tremonti an idiot. The open disagreement in the Italian government immediately caused markets to doubt whether Italian austerity measures can be agreed upon.

The growth picture in the US is becoming bleak with rising unemployment and a dreaded double dip, as rare as it is, cannot be ruled out.

China is expected to continue its monetary tightening, which could also dampen growth prospects.

With so much uncertainty, it is no wonder that volatility is increasing, but we believe that our current asset allocation and overall risk reduction through our gold and CHF positions are adequate in a volatile environment.

Due to these risks, we have interviewed Thomas Fischer JGAM Sr. Vice president about multi currency diversification.

 

fischer-checkan

Thomas Fischer (right) and  Rich Checkan (left).

We also interviewed Rich Checkan of the precious metals dealers Asset Strategies International.

You can also hear both recent interviews on where to invest globally now.

We have added phone interview updates to our Global Personal Portfolio service.

Here is how the updates work.

You email me your questions.  We will review them with experts and then answer them in telephone call updates.

We’ll send you the recorded calls.

Who is eligible to ask and to listen in to the call?

This service is free for all subscribers to our annual Multi Currency Service.

Not a Multi Currency subscriber?  Learn how to enroll here.

Non Multi Currency subscribers can enroll to have their questions answered for a one time charge of $9.99.

Order here $9.99.

Gary

See this Manabi farm with organic cashew potential.

See new idea on how to earn with Ecuador agriculture and exports .


manabi-ecuador-farm

Join Merri and me as we look at ways to fight international investment turmoil in the year ahead.

Last Day of our July Special. The offer to save up to $499 expires tonight at midnight.

We have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as referrers, dealers and distributors.

What a match… tens of thousands of readers, many wanting to earn globally… meeting some great… really unique global businesses tied together with our communication system that can bring all this: training…. communicating and networking.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

After attending our International Business and investing seminar on October 7-8-9, you will be qualified to enroll for referrer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

I’ll explain the first specific way you can tap into greater power for everlasting health and wealth in a moment.

First, may I remind you of  our July special that ends in just over two days?

We provide three e-courses that can help you develop your own micro business that we designed to help you earn anywhere you live in the world.

International Business Made EZ ($299)

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher ($499)

Event – Full How to Earn With  Your Own Seminars ($349)

July Special.

Enroll before midnight July 24, 2011 for our October International Business & Investing Seminar (plus Frequency Modulation Workshop),   October 7, 8, 9, 2010 in the Blue Ridge Mountains of NC and choose any one of the three courses above for FREE.  You Save between $299 and $499.

Early enrollment for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here for details.

We have started the beta program, and the good news is that we are not charging a penny more more.  Our International Business Made EZ online course and our International Business Made EZ seminars remain the same price though we’ll now offer subscribers an entrance to doing business with many turnkey businesses.

The overall service can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

Our first turnkey business program is Jyske global Asset Management because our activities as publishers has a synchronicity with Jyske and JGAM.   We have been able to combine our training, communications and lead generation abilities with their financial organization.

Business is always a little more complicated when it entails financial products so we have created a beta program to develop this system.

A referrer does not have to be a registered as an investment adviser but JGAM does have a due diligence requirement. JGAM will also expect a certain amount of referrals per year though this amount has not been determined… hence this beta offer.

JGAM pays a percentage of their fee to the referrer up to a maximum 25% of their fee. This not only offers an excellent income generating opportunity but creates a potential long term income stream because JGAM keeps paying the fee as long as the client remains a client. Fees are paid on a quarterly basis.

There is also potential for growing long term income because JGAM pays the referrer based on the total assets under management.  If a referred client makes additional payments, the referrer will be paid on the total amount.

For example if an referrer refers a client who invests a minimum $100,000 and the annual fee is 2%, the referrer earns $500 per annum basic fee (as long as the customer remains with JGAM)… plus if the assets grow either through portfolio growth or added deposits… so too does the referrer’s fee.

We have set our first training JGAM training session for October 10, 2012.

This program will allow subscribers to any of our  online courses who have attended an International Business Made EZ seminar to become referrers for JGAM.

We have been working with Jyske Bank for over 20 years and Jyske Global Asset Management, a Jyske Bank wholly owned subsidiary. We started talking to Thomas Fischer Senior VP about an referral program for some time.  Finally,we introduced this opportunity for the first time at our June 2011 seminar.  The response was overwhelming.

Jyske Bank employs a staff of about 4,000 and operates 116 Danish branches, which makes it the second largest independent Danish bank. They offer a full range of financial solutions to retail as well as small and medium-sized corporate clients.

We have always liked Jyske because they are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and offer very simple but sophisticated multi currency investing services.  They are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and dealers.

We have especially enjoyed our business relation with Jyske because being open and honest is one of the core values of the bank group. Traditionally, Jyske formulates and communicates its values – and the way they understand and live by them – to the surrounding world. They work hard offering shareholders, customers and employees balanced opportunity.

We especially like the fact that Jyske employees are not paid bonuses.  No multi million pay outs are in the system that might temp staff to distort earnings or take undue risks.

Here is how you can apply for this program.

To start as a referrer,  there is first the compliance process with Jyske Bank.

Once that process is complete, our IBEZ system helps educate and assist referrer.

First… once a referrer has been approved by JGAM, and the referrer has completed our online course International Business Made EZ course and attended one of our  international investing and business seminars they can attend an exclusive training seminar at our farm.

We have a…

little-horse-creek

creekside…

little-horse-creek

seminar hall where…

little-horse-creek

unless the group grows too large, we’ll meet.   We’ll have lunch  on the deck looking over Little Horse Creek.

JGAM and our company conduct this one day intensive training for agents the day after each International Investing and Business seminar.

The first such seminar will be conducted Monday, October 10, 2011 immediately after our October 7-8-9 International Investing and Business Seminar in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

Part of the JGAM program is designed so we can assist referrers by referring readers in their locale to them.  So for example if a referrer is in Miami, we will send special emails to our readers in that area, help organize mini seminars… etc.

We can zero in as close as 20 miles to a location so for example we can send a separate email to every reader within 20 miles of the address of a referrer.  And although we won’t release the names in that area, we can send them a note of the opportunity.

We will also provide a referrer communication forum and update training as well as portfolio and investing ideas.  We have general plans at this stage but find the best way to develop systems is to refine through action. We expect our beta program this year to clarify how we can best help our readers become referrers and how we can help them succeed.

Step one is to start the compliance process with JGAM.  Thomas Fischer  can send you the Introducer Questionnaire and Terms of Business.

Thomas Fischer’s email is fischer@jgam.com

This will begin the process of establishing a relationship with JGAM.  Once this relation is approved and verified, then you will be able to enroll in the referrer training.

You must complete one of the online business development courses above and attend an International Business and Investing Seminar to be eligible for the October training.

All of our readers are invited to enroll in our International Business Made EZ Online Course and our International Business and Investing Seminar at any time.

Satisfaction Guaranteed.  Three Guarantees.

There is no guarantee that JGAM will approve your application as a referrer just because you enroll in the seminar or take the online course so we make two special guarantees.

First Guarantee. Regarding the online course International Business Made EZ.  Enroll in this course. Take it and if you are not satisfied for any reason within 30 days… let us know and we’ll give you a full refund.

Second Guarantee. Enroll in our October 7-8-9 International Business & Investing Seminar.  I’ll send you a recording of the June seminar now so you better understand what these seminars are and how they help you.  If you are not happy with what you hear, let us know within 30 days and we’ll give you a full refund. You keep the recorded seminar as our thanks.

Third Guarantee.  Your earnings potential has this guarantee.  First, any time between now and October… before you attend the International Business and Investing seminar if you fail to qualify as a JGAM referrer agent or change your mind before attending the International Business and Investing seminar you can ask for a full refund.

Early enrollment for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here for details.