Tag Archive | "Inflation"

How Infrastructure Flub Ruins Pensions


Expect the world to get richer.   Supply, demand and resources are what wealth is all about.  We live in a world with a growing population (increased demand) and technology that increases productivity (increased supply).   Overall the wealth, more supply and more demand) grows.

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I use this saw to beat inflation.

However don’t expect that wealth to be equally or fairly distributed.  There are plenty of reasons why those on fixed incomes can become poorer.

Take for example, the US infrastructure spending over the next four years.   This can be a bad deal for those on a fixed income.

Current predictions are that this building, accompanied by tax reductions at the upper end, will add 6 trillion dollars of US debt.  Adding debt financed infrastructure is good only if the improvements adds enough productivity to pay off the debt.   If not, the spending creates inflation.  Rising costs are bad for those who depend on pensions.

The world is in a technology transition.  The demand that is growing fastest is virtual.  Spending is likely to be on bricks and mortar.  This is compared to developing more WalMarts when all the shopping growth is at Amazon.com or building new post offices just before the internet came into use.

Here is a real example.  When we first moved to Naples, Florida in the 1970s Merri and I had a powerful computer.  This was a big deal back then and it allowed us to become an official post office internet center.  The idea was that if someone wanted to send an email to someone without a computer, they would send it to us.  We would print it and the recipient would pick it up from us physically.  That system really missed the mark!

We do not know what new productivity innovations lay ahead and creating six trillion in debt on infrastructure of the past will not create more real wealth.   There will be some jobs created but the added income will be offset by higher costs because the incomes created will be paid for from debt.   This debt is ours, the public’s, as in you and me.   In the bigger picture, this spending is akin to borrowing money from the bank and treating the loans as if they are earnings.

Those who will prosper most are the wealthy, the owners of the big construction businesses who enjoy added tax breaks while the middle class, especially those on fixed income, pick up a greater share of the tax burden and higher cost of living for essential goods.

How do we gain protection?

We can have multiple ways to create extra income.  Try new things that you enjoy doing that can work in good times and bad.

Don’t worry about making huge profits.  Keep trying things that you want to do.  For example at our farm in NC, we added three sources of extra income Airbnb rentals, raising trout and creating wood products (using hand tools like the saw above).   Some will take off, others probably won’t but each contributes to the battle against inflation and most important, we enjoy the process.  Some of the skills developed would be really valuable if there is a big economic meltdown.  We hope that meltdown will never come, but because there are scenarios where the global economy could go south,  we sleep better having these enjoyable skills.

This is a way to become a Pruppie and turn passions into profit.

Gary

See more on Pruppieism below.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere

While the world was distracted by the American politics, a more important power struggle is taking place.   If that struggle is lost what’s left of our privacy, the safety of our food supply, the control over our health, the safety of our money and even the sanctity of our opinions and thoughts could be lost.

Almost half of America’s voters rejected the postwar global economic order. This could leave a cloud of uncertainty over the U.S. and world economies, that create market risks at any time.  Yet the bigger danger continues to grow.   This struggle is taking place, right now.   You are reading about a tiny part of this conflict daily in the news.  Part of the danger is that most of the clash is hidden from view.  The public does not see underneath the visible spin nor do they understand the truly horrible consequences that losing this struggle brings.

The great risk comes because there is an association forming that could not only impact health care, nutrition and the environment, but can control what you read on the internet, see over cell phones, watch on TV and what trends in social media.  In short everything you write or say could be used  to control what you hear and read.

The warning shot, that could be seen, was the merger between Bayer and Monsanto.  This union is horrible enough, yet is only the tip of the iceberg as there are seven companies involved in a more sinister plot.

The momentum of this dangerous alliance has picked up much faster than anticipated.   I began researching and preparing a report “Learn Anywhere, Earn Everywhere” last month when the Bayer-Monsanto merger was the big deal.   Bayer and Monsanto are two of the seven firms involved in this almost invisible take-over of our food and medical services as well as the internet, cell phones and TV.  I started researching when I found the depth of the Bayer-Monsanto merger.  I was truly concerned and shocked because my research discovered that the consolidation of Bayer and Monsanto is not the biggest merger nor the most dangerous by far.

I miscalculated how much time we have.  I went to work on the report right away, taking my time to delve deeply, but even before I have finished the report, events have begun to heat up.  The pace of this hidden unification has increased.  Now another merger is taking place, far more destructive and the alliance has an incredible lobby program working to make sure that the deal goes through.

A triad of three huge concerns and four smaller ones with hundreds of billions of dollars have built one of the most formidable lobbying operations in Washington.  Nearly 100 registered lobbyists are already on retainer and they include former members of Congress.   One company in this heptagon is also the largest donor to federal lawmakers.  The donations we know of equal more than $11 million to 374 of the House’s 435 members and 85 of the Senate’s 100 members in this election cycle.

This deadly seven point affiliation is likely to snake into almost every part of our livelihood.  One part of the cartel will increase our dependence on modified food that can purposely increase our needs for pharmaceuticals manufactured and sold at outrageous prices by another arm of the group.  The organizations will know more about us than any other group in existence.  They will (in fact they already are) act as spies for the government.  This amalgamation will control what ads we see, the products we buy, listen into our phone calls and even monitor and influence what we see on TV.

Sadly most of the public will not even know that this fusion has taken place.  Life will appear to go on as normal.  They won’t even see the change as what’s left of their good life which could be drained away by corporate malfeasance.

This is why I am rushing a report to you so you can be one of the few who avoid the ruin of this alliance and even gain rather than lose what’s left.  The report contains seven steps we can take to gain benefits and protection from this cartel.

Here is some background.  At the beginning of the 20th century, Carl Duisberg, the head of Bayer, created a profit sharing cartel from three firms BASF, Bayer and Agfa, called the Dreibund (Triple Alliance) or little IG.

This German chemical association dominated commerce everywhere under the name of IG Farben, the largest company in Europe, the 4th largest anywhere and the largest chemical company in the world.

Because “Power Corrupts” this company morphed into something truly evil before and during the Second World War.

After WWII IG Farben was considered so morally corrupt it could not be allowed to continue to exist and was split into its original constituent companies.  Today Agfa, BASF, Sanofi and Bayer remain.

This is where facts become truly scary.  Some of these very same companies have merged with other mega concerns to create a new American Dreibund (a Triple Alliance dominating the USA).   This new cartel has such power it can take control of your food, your medicine and even influence if not control what you read and the information you access for health and wealth.  Even worse, they can monitor everything you do and give it to others in government and business as well.

From a political point of view we cannot do much about this alliance.   The cartel has hundreds of billions and hundreds of lobbyists.  They are making their big move right now, to take advantage of the election distraction.  They know that right after the election politicians are willing to accept bad news because it will be forgotten in four years.  In addition their greatest enemy in the government has only a couple of months left as the head of the Federal agency that will fight this cartel.

Only a few people will know how to take advantage of the inadvertent advantages we can gain from the results of this alliance.

The sooner we act, the greater the benefits.   This is why I want to rush my newest report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” to you.  This report shares how to protect what you have from this coalition that is taking over mainstream media, our food supply as well as our medical history, health care and communications.

Fortunately a loophole can set you free.  You can protect what you have and actually improve your situation, a lot.  Merri and I have already jumped though the loophole and want to share why and how you should too.

How to Gain Extra Freedom – While Almost Everyone Loses Theirs.  Become a Pruppie!

May I coin a new word, Pruppie?

We all know about preppers.  They believe that the world, as we know it, is about to end.  And we also know about Uppies, upward professionals as in Yuppies, young upward professionals.  Uppies expect their world to get better.

The reality is that our worlds have changed and for most of us, there is still great opportunity for a better lifestyle, yet the preppies could be right.

I invite you to join Merri and me as Pruppies, those who expect the world to get better and live and earn based on that expectation but enjoy a progressive lifestyle of freedom that also happens to prepare us for bad times as well as good.

Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper anyway.  We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

For example in this report, you’ll see how to make your dining room table bring you more control, more time, more income and more freedom.  After all, what can be more accessible than a dining room table?

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You’ll even learn how to turn dining room tables into income and tax deductions as we have with these dining room tables we build out of local wood.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers the American Dreibund has planned for the public.  The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, has continued to grow.  There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also works well in disaster scenarios.

Let me provide one simple, concrete example.  Ginseng.  This is a great health root.  The demand is growing especially in China.  At times good dried Ginseng sells for $1,000 a pound!  This is an incredible and easy crop to grow.   The less care you give it, the more valuable it can become.  Yet if everything goes south, the health qualities will be good to have and make it an excellent barter item.  Once you know what to do with ginseng, it’s easy to grow in your back year.

Even better one of the best kept secrets is that ginseng and 125 other medicinal crops that are currently unsustainable but can be grown on land  that is extraordinarily cheap.

goldenseal ginseng

Ginseng growing in our back yard.  I know about growing ginseng through experience and explain why and how in the report.

There are are specific places that reduce your living expenses, easily increase your income, make you smarter, healthier and provide tax benefits as well. 

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes these places special and seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar spots of opportunity.

Here are some of the experiences this report shares:

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not).

The report is very specific because it is about what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning globally.

  • Learn about the magic of the north facing slope.   This is where Merri and I live almost half of our time.  North facing mountain land is some of the least expensive in the world but has hidden values that the report reveals.  There is a lot of this land and a lot of hidden value that you can tap.   When we bought our Blue Ridge farm (252 acres) I mentioned this to my Swiss banking friend.  “That’s bigger than the entire village where I live!” was his response.  Smalltown USA offers a last chance at having a lot of space.  By living in two Smalltown places there are enormous tax advantages as well.  One step in the system saves Merri and me over $28,345 in taxes a year.

The report shows how to buy cheap north facing slopes and create an income producing tiny home for $29,000 or less.

If you lack the $29,000 to invest, a start up using tents is even less.  These are tipis we put up at our farm before we built our first tiny home.  Learn how they can create tens of thousands of dollars in income for you.

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

  • See ways that small businesses like Tipi rentals can create BIG tax savings as well as extra income.  For more than 30 years Merri and I have enjoyed a strong six figure income, some years more, in the millions.  Yet there have been very few years when we had to pay federal income tax.  The report lays out a three structure program and how it is used when you are in school (up to age 30), then from 25 to 50, 50 to 70  and beyond 70.   Learn why Chapter C corporations and pensions can be better than the normally recommended Chapter S.  See how new mileage log rules gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions using IRS Form 4562.  Using a two-vehicle strategy you can gain $12,976 in new deductions even if you do not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny on your car.
  • See how a greenhouse can help you eat better and be healthier, plus provide income and a tax deduction and be funded by a government grant.

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Our North Carolina greenhouse.

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Our Florida greenhouse.

  • There are similar benefits from having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587, even if your desk is a dining room table.  The report also shows how your dining room table can become an actual income producer as its creates a huge tax deduction at the same time, not to mention a great place to eat, work and lay out plans for a brighter, safer more lucrative and enjoyable future.
  • Living in this environment is also healthier, economically as well as physically.  You’ll see in the report how researchers at Harvard found an amazing correlation between living in conditions found on north facing slopes, longevity and mental health.  The researchers were quite surprised by this strong correlation that also extended into mental health.  In addition to feeling better, reducing stress and having more Joie de Vivre the places outlined in “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” can help you avoid hospitals, high cost disease management (aka health care) and BIG pharma while providing an investment opportunity in three plants that have some of the fastest growing demand in natural health care.  These three plants are just one of seven business opportunities that can create multiple streams of income.
  • How changes in cell phone and internet technology eliminated the need to be in one place.   An old law that creates new opportunity for small business in small towns is available to everyone.
  • Use the specific search and purchase guide.  Construction plans are included that show how to generate first tier income that leads to five, second tier avenues of earnings.
  • How to pay off old debt and avoid new debt by avoiding spurts and embracing value. 
  • Learn seven skills that will always have value.  See how to turn First Aid, medicinal plants, hospitality, food, trees, alternate energy and writing to sell into everlasting, low stress wealth.

merrily farms

This pond at our farm is a pleasure but also helps create a safe, healthy food supply and creates a tax deduction as well.

My Guarantee

This may be the most important report I have written in 50 years.  The information is certainly the most urgent.  Do not delay.  The risks are upon us right now and you’ll understand how the final steps of the alliance are taking place as you read the current news.

To take any risk out of gaining this urgent information with my full satisfaction or money back guarantee.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.  I guarantee you can ask for a full refund any time within 60 days and I’ll refund your payment in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the reports as my thanks for ordering it.

Order the “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report”  $39.99. Click here.

Gary

 

 

A Centenarian Financial Lesson


Here is an important lesson about finance from a century ago.  In 1916, a terrible war was being waged.  The Germans realizing that they had made a huge error began a peace initiative.  The British refused, and this led to an even bigger German error, open submarine warfare that brought the Americans into the war.

Another huge error was that Germany’s government had made a decision to finance that war with loans. The strategy was to pay off the loans with the repatriations and spoils of war.  That plan backfired when Germany lost the war and the new Weimar Republic was now saddled with a massive war debt that it could not afford.  The government decided to payoff the debt by printing money without the economic resources to back it up.

In 1916 five German marks were worth a US dollar.  After the Treaty of Versailles 48 paper marks  were required to buy one US dollar.  Yet Germany continued to print paper money to pay its debt.  By November 1923, one American dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks  (that’s 4.2 trillion marks per dollar).

The lesson is when governments print too much paper money, without the economic resources to back it up, that paper loses purchasing power.  Yet the lesson has not stuck.  Governments everywhere are growing deeper and deeper in debt.

One way to overcome the consequences of this devaluation is to combine multi-dimensional businesses with writing to sell.

Merri and I aim to create multi dimensional opportunity wherever we live.

In Florida we bought a house and an orange grove next door.  Then we added a rental unit.

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(Our Florida home and grove with its heart shape.)

In North Carolina we bought a house… then added a seminar center and rental units.

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Our mountain creek seminar center in North Carolina.

We have made each of our homes multi dimensional… a home AND a source of income.  This is important because multi dimensional homes help us escape governments that cannot keep their economic promises.  History is littered with stories of serious national debt and economic problems that ruined pensions and retirees.  The burdens of debt and fiscal imprudence cause governments and societies to lose their ability to keep their promises.  Multi dimensional earnings can help overcome the risks these conditions create.

A look at government, social and currency breakdowns at their worst can help us see ways to earn and invest in turbulent times.

We do not have to look back 100 years to see what excessive debt and printing of paper currency can do.  In 1992, after Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union, its budget deficit reached 12.2% of GDP and inflation reached 2000%.  In 1993 price growth was 10,000%.  By the time a new currency was introduced (the hryvnia) in 1996 cumulative price increases reached 100,000 times!

Inflation slowed for awhile but has skyrocketed again and Ukraine’s hryvnia lost 70 percent of its value against other currencies in just the last year.

No matter how much one earns and saves, if prices rise 100,000 times, a lifetime of thrift might not be enough for a loaf of bread.

Any fixed income, pension, Social Security or savings can become worthless.

This is why multi-dimensional micro business opportunities make sense.

One way to be multi-dimensional is by learning how to write to sell.

Writing has always been the starting point in Merri’s and my multi dimensional activity.  Whether we have been creating a seminar, a course, finding or selling real estate, or an investment or business opportunity, we have reached our clients with the written word.

When you know how to write to sell, you can live anywhere you choose and still earn.  You can choose where the sun shines best for you and still have a pinnacle career.

Many countries require work permits for certain jobs, but usually these are not required for businesses like restaurants, shops, real estate agencies, art galleries, bed-and-breakfasts and small hotels.

Self Publishing has helped Merri and me create exactly the lifestyle we desire.

Self Publishing has entered a new era as a new business art form and we want to share with you how to start your own self publishing business now at our upcoming International Club retreat.

Learn how to develop your publishing skills to turn your passion into profit!  Even if you aren’t excited about writing… you can publish.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND even create a six-and even seven figure income. This could be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted in life.  Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work at all, learn more about golf or feeding the hungry… it can be yours!

Here are  three basics of success in self publishing… passion… purpose… and profit.

Passion. You have to love to write to succeed in writing. This may seem a simple point but you either need to enjoy writing or love what you are writing about.

Purpose. To remain a writer for the long haul requires more than just fun.  Writers are missionaries. Your mission may be to tell a truth… reveal a secret or simply to entertain.  You’ll know what that mission is or at least feel it.  This is the driving force of writing.  If you do not understand it to begin… after you write enough that purpose will reveal itself.

Profit.  Follow your passions yes… but also stay tuned with what the majority of buyers want. Your desires may be the bull’s eye, but the entire target is THE market.

Plus the target is always moving so you should keep testing the winds of change. If the mood of your market changes and you do not keep up, your product or marketing can become out of style.

Fortunately there is a really simple way to stay tuned to your market that I learned years ago by surprise.

A friend inadvertently taught me this trick years ago when he recommended a book entitled “How to Survive the Upcoming Crash of 1995”. That book was on the NY Times best seller list and it sacred me to death as it told about how the U.S. economy would melt down in 1995 because U.S. government debt was out of control.

The book offered no solution to this dilemma.

I wrote a marketing piece with a headline “Are we 23 Months to Disaster?” that mentioned the book, outlined this problem and gave readers a way to find solutions by ordering my course on international investing.

Over the next two years this marketing piece worked unbelievably well creating millions in sales and profits.

Yet the premise was totally wrong! There was no bankruptcy of the US economy in 1995.  Instead the greatest economic boom in the history of mankind began.

This taught a valuable and simple lesson on how to see the buying public as a whole…perhaps understanding the public persona better than the public understands itself. The trick is simply to look at the best selling book lists…especially those of large newspapers… New York Times, USA Today and the Kindle Top 100.

The profits and sales from my 23 Months to Disaster piece did not arise because the product or marketing were in tune with economic markets. The disaster marketing piece was a success because it was tuned to how investors felt!   In addition the piece was fortified because it related to a book that millions of investors had read.

That book had scared millions of investors and created a problem for them, just as it had me.  My disaster marketing piece came along at just the right time…with a solution!

We can get clues about business trends by watching what everyone reads.

Best selling book lists are windows into a nation’s or the world’s soul and studying them can help you create a profitable multi dimensional business.

Merri, David and I are always testing new ways of communicating with our readers.  We know the value of embracing change.  The evolution in our business has taught us to integrate what we learn and feel with what others say.  We want to share this continuing process with you at our upcoming retreat. Details are below.

Gary

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar rose almost 50% above its lows of 2011.   Last year the greenback was at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee was also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar had crashed.  In other words, the US dollar has been in a period of high performance.

The greenback is in a free fall.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

 

 

Frightening Inflation


Here is a frightening thought about inflation. 

A recent article about inflation in Japan deserves some time for reflection.

The article said:  “It’s one thing if luxury items are expensive, but if cheap things aren’t cheap anymore, it’s a real problem.”

Inflation has not come much to the forefront in the last few years.  Rising costs have been low, except for the cheap things like food, beans and rice, vegetables and fruit… nuts.

Now underlying inflation in the United States has increased more than expected as rents and medical costs maintain an upward trend.  The core Consumer Price Index rose 2.3 percent in the 12 months through February 2016.  This was the highest increase in almost five years.  In 2016 food and other costs (such as new and used cars and trucks) rose even faster.   However inflation seemed low because there was a 13 percent drop in gasoline prices, which offset both the increase in core C.P.I. and food prices.

This is an inflation danger, short term volatility in commodities such as oil can obscure rising long term prices  in other essentials that were previously not worth worrying about, such as food.

This has to leave us to wonder. “It’s one thing if luxury items are expensive, but if cheap things aren’t cheap anymore, it’s a real problem.”

Gary

Disaster When the Other Shoe Drops

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

There is inherent disaster building in rising markets… especially now.  Don’t wait until its too late.  Stocks, bonds and gold are all rising at the same time.  Almost everyone feels good.  We should not.  You and I should not be like most investors, because the clock of economic reckoning is ticking though no wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Recently the Dow Industrial and NASDAQ had record high closes.  Bitcoin has tripled this year.  Gold reached its highest price in seven months.  This rise of all asset classes is creating distortions that when corrected will set most investors back for years.

Simply put, the good time feelings are pushing prices too high.

Complacency in the markets, as the U.S. moves into the late stages of the economic growth cycle, destroys value.   Share prices will drop.  The only question is when.  Signs such as rising interest rates, declines in housing, along with lower auto and retail sales suggest that the slow down may be sooner rather than later.  The price of assets will fall.

There were a couple of  warning signals yesterday.  

Dollar weakness is a sign.

A Wall Street journal article yesterday “Dollar Gets Squeezed From All Sides” says: Greenback is down 5.6% this year, its worst two-quarter decline since 2011, as investors see more growth overseas

The dollar suffered through its worst stretch in six years during the first half of 2017, as investors turned more confident that economic recoveries around the world are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S.

The currency lost 1% last week against a basket of major peers tracked by The Wall Street Journal, bringing its decline for the year to 5.6%. That is the dollar’s largest two-quarter percentage decline since 2011.

A weak US dollar can draw investors out of the US and into other markets. The shift will cause a US market crash.

The 1987 Secular Cycle is near its end. 

Secular cycles in the market tend to run 30 years. History shows that markets run on recurrent patterns of change.  There are periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation and decline.  Cyclical market cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years.  The last big shift was in 1987.

Another WSJ article yesterday “For Whom the Bell Tolls, Sell” asks: Is this a bull market or a mania? You never know for sure, except in retrospect.

You think this market’s crazy?  One day in early 1987, with Wall Street humming, a meeting after trading closed involved several cases of champagne. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had breached 2000 that day, a cause for celebration. A week and a half later, more champagne was ordered when the average passed 2100. Then again a few weeks later for 2200. Eventually my boss stopped buying bubbly when breaking records became the norm.

On Friday, Oct. 16, 1987, the average dropped 108 points. The market truly crashed the next Monday, dropping 508 points, or 22.6%. In retrospect, there had been signs all over the place.  How did everyone miss them? Well, as the old Wall Street adage goes, no one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.

Yet everyone wants to stay at the party.

No one knows when the global economic clock will strike midnight.  However, there is a way to be sure that our investments and savings will survive when the clock strikes twelve.

Here is what to do.  Choose investments based on markets instead of shares, diversify in value, rely on financial rather than economic news and keep investing simple, easy and at a low cost.

Diversify in value markets, not shares.  One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of most of the shares in a good value stock market.

 

The importance of easy, transparent and inexpensive.  Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  Another tactic is to invest so you have staying power.  This way you’ll never be caught short and have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.  This also means you’ll have enough faith in a strategy to stick to the plan.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based on financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (who also happen to be friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

pifolios

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio is up 32.22%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

As of mid-2017 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

Why We Need Slow Investing


As the world speeds up, we need to slow down.  One typical lie is the promise of something so far in the future, that the liar won’t be around when the promise needs to be kept.  Governments and businesses have been lying this way for so long that they have created quite a rat race for those now stuck with keeping the promise.  The way to avoid this rat race is to get off the treadmill and take time to observe and create your own health, earning and savings strategy.

A Wall Street Journal article “Cracks Starting to Appear in Public Pensions’ Armor” (1) reminded me that we each need to find easy practical ways to care for ourselves.

This article caught my attention because my father worked for the city of Portland. He was a zoo keeper.

Portland-zoo

(Article from Oregonian about my sister and me raising a baby lion.  We loved dad’s job.  He brought many lions and tigers home for us to care for.  At ten years old, this was so cool.)

What a great occupation for your dad to have when you are a kid!  But this is now the remains at the zoo.

Portland-zoo

Old Portland Zoo after it was abandoned… picture taken February 1960.  Will state, city and county employees be abandoned as well?

Having grown up during the depression of the 1930s, “job security and benefits” were Dad’s mantra.  He was in the right time at the right place.  His job provided a steady income and his pension benefits were fantastic.   Though he passed many years ago, my mom has received great benefits for over 30 years.

I have watched the benefits be cut and the article in the Wall Street Journal shares how all types of pensions from private to public to Social Security do less than before and are likely to do even less in the years ahead.

The article says:  “First in Detroit, then in Stockton, Calif., and now in New Jersey, judges and other top officials are challenging the widespread belief that public pensions are untouchable.”

The article tells how Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey proposed freezing that state’s public pension plans and says: The first crack came in Detroit, where a judge ruled that public pensions could, in fact, be reduced, at least in bankruptcy. Then, just a few weeks ago, an opinion by the bankruptcy judge for Stockton, which emerged from Chapter 9 on Wednesday, called California’s mighty public pension system, Calpers, a bully for insisting in court that pension cuts were wholly out of the question.

Companies can legally freeze their pension plans and now more and more states are arguing that because they are legal sovereigns, federal pension law does not apply to them.  The problem is when states, cities and other local governments reform pensions  they cannot freeze benefits for existing workers.  Statistics show that reducing benefits only for future hires does not save enough money to preserve overstretched pension plans, especially in places where retirees outnumber current workers.

This problem created by longer lifespans, swollen benefits and lowered pension earnings induces many pension managers to do exactly the wrong thing, to speed up and leverage investing and increase risk.

An article entitled “Intel Lawsuit Questions Place of Hedge Funds in Retirement Plans (2)  tells how the Intel pension places big bets on hedge funds and private equity.  The plaintiffs say that this increases risks and costs in the retirement portfolios, hurting plan participants.

A decade ago Intel had a conservative pension primarily in large-capitalization stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500. Then the company began diversifying into small-capitalization stocks, emerging-markets securities, fixed-income and alternative investments like commodities futures, hedge funds and private equity. Recently, these investments in hedge funds and private equity have grown significantly.

The answer to increased risk of default is not to increase risk, but to resolve the underlying problem of too much demand and too little contribution.  Pensions are meant to be absolute promises that their participants can depend on.  To keep their promise, they need well founded math based on reduced promises, increased contributions and slower, more dependable, good value investing.

Times are changing at an ever increasing rate.  The way to succeed in this scenario is to step off the treadmill, slow down so you can observe and create your own strategy for natural health, earning through a pinnacle career and saving with purposeful, good value investing.

Gary

www.nytimes.com – public pensions look vulnerable

www.nytimes.com – intel lawsuit questions place of hedge funds in retirement plans

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

 

How to Survive Selective Inflation


The worst kinds of inflation are unreasonable rises in the costs of basics such as  food, shelter and medicine.   There are times when due to income, inequality or legal inefficiency, inflation becomes a form of extortion.  Take the case of shelter, various anti discrimination laws are used to stop landlords from abusing their power to provide  shelter (such as asking for sex to reduce or forego rent), but the practice is all too common.

We don’t have to look far to see legal extortion in medicine.  There has been an outrage about the rise in the price of a decades-old drug called Daraprim.   A new company, Turing Pharmaceuticals, bought the drug and promptly increased the price from $13.50 per tablet to $750 per tablet — a 5,000 percent jump!  However this new company is just following the example of Valeant Pharmaceutical which has a business model of buying existing drugs and raising prices aggressively, rather than trying to develop new drugs.  In essence these companies are extorting (currently in a legal way) unreasonable profits with the threat, “Pay up or die”.

Valeant Drug Prices

This image from the New York Times article on rising drug prices (1) shows how in 2015 alone, Valeant raised prices on its brand-name drugs an average of 66 percent.

Selective inflation is likely to apply to the even more basic item-food.  Here is why I think selective inflation could hurt hundreds of millions of people, especially those on a fixed income.

I recently researched inflation beyond the Consumer Price Index for my report, “The Silver Dip 2015”.   What I found is that since 1942 US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose from 1942 until 2015 47 times. The cost of cars jumped 36 times.  Gold is up 33 times its value in 1942.  Silver rose 38 times in the same period.

This means that gold and silver were reasonable hedges against some forms of inflation.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car  or house today, you could do it.   This is true of going to a movie, up 33 times or renting an apartment.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.

The metals have done even better when it comes to eating.  The price of bread has risen 21 times.  Sugar is up 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Ideally this means that food companies have been good about not gouging consumers.  Regretfully in the face of growing income inequity, failing corporate ethics and rising food prices we might be a bit cynical and not count on this.  The more likely fact is that food processors will see the lag as an excuse to let food prices catch up.

Last May the Labor Department indicated that Americans should be prepared for food prices to remain relatively high.

Meats have seen the steepest rise in price along with dairy products.

Rising food prices can continue to a be a source of stress worldwide as internationally traded food prices rose by a steep 4.0%. Corn and wheat, in particular, contributed to the rise.  The commodities each increased 12% and 18% worldwide this year through the middle of the year despite record grain harvests.

Living standards will suffer as more is spent on grocery store bills, leaving less for discretionary spending.

According to an article at cheatsheets.com (2) The World Bank says that already high food prices have become “the new normal,” and writes that, in less developed nations, families cope with rising prices by “pulling their children out of school and eating cheaper less nutritious food, which can have severe life-long effects… one-third of all child deaths globally are attributed to under-nutrition.”

There are numerous reasons for the increasing cost of food, climate change, drought, increased demand, rising labor costs and worker shortages all which create price pressure.

The largest price pressure comes from industry consolidation.  As processors and packagers merge, reduced competition creates higher food prices.

The best way to overcome selective inequality inflation such as rising food prices is to make sure your income and savings rise faster than prices.

The price comparisons in my research show that gold has outperformed nine of 14 inflation standards reviewed.  Silver outperformed 12 of the standards.  This suggests that gold and silver have done pretty well in maintaining value as real money.

However, this comparison also suggests that gold and silver are not necessarily badly undervalued either.  Beware of claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  The price of gold and silver are likely to continue rising and falling along their medians.  If the conclusions of the inflation comparison are correct, any time silver drops much below $14, it is perhaps under valued. Gold below $1,150 is also likely a good deal.

This suggests that the price of silver and gold may not rise as fast as the price of medicine or food.  This is why I have written two reports, one on value investing in currency patterns,  “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and on how to use leverage with silver, “Silver Dip 2015“.

Integrating equity and currency value investing with leverage and precious metals can increase profits to help us stay abreast of selective inequality inflation.

Gary

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

(1)  www.nytimes.com – Valeants drug price strategy

(2) www.cheatsheet.com – Price pressures from farm to table

How to Avoid Swiss Francs During Inflation


Inflation is important.  Some parts of the cost of living have been rising much faster than statistics suggest.  Anyone who visits the grocery store quickly learns this fact.

The last time this economic phenomenon happened my investments earned extra profits so I have been preparing to react to this particular type of inflation. Intelligent investments can create extra earnings that will offset the costs.  My investment will not include many Swiss francs, if any at all.

swiss franc

In the past, inflation protection was easier because other major governments were not involved in excessive government spending.  One could get out of the US dollar and invest in German marks, Japanese yen or Swiss francs and expect to make a profit.

This tactic no longer works.  The German mark is gone, so we have to invest in euro to get a German investment.  The euro has great potential versus the dollar but nothing like a German mark would have.

The Swiss franc, was a great currency for protection for many decades, but the fundamentals no longer are so strong.

First of all, Switzerland’s economy is simply too small for the franc to be a reserve currency.   In eras past, only a small portion of the world’s wealth (held by the richest) had access to Swiss francs.  In modern times, a huge population had access to investing in the franc.  Yet Switzerland’s population at 6 million people is the size of Philadelphia or Dallas, Houston or Washington, DC.

Switzerland needs to keep its currency pegged somewhere close to the euro as Germany is its largest export country.

There is good information about Switzerland’s exports at a MIT University site. (1)

mit swiss franc data

This chart from the MIT site shows Switzerland’s main exports.

Gold                                                                     $52,519,814,522     20% of all exports
Packaged Medicaments                                   $29,809,689,115     11% of all exports
Human or Animal Blood                                 $16,366,090,711        6.2% of all exports
Watches                                                              $21,895,590,400      8.3% of all exports
Orthopedic Appliances                                    $6,274,875,494         2.4% of all exports
Jewelry                                                                $5,861,875,912          2.2% of all exports
Nitrogen Heterocyclic Compounds               $4,813,692,968.35    1.8% of all exports

Some investors make the mistake of looking at the Swiss franc as it was decades ago. I have warned against this for many years.

Years ago in a different world, Switzerland was isolated and fiercely independent. Its mountainous terrain and well-organized citizen’s army gave strength to claim and enforce neutrality.

The small population (about 6 million) believed in personal and hence banking privacy. The people were incredibly conservative and highly efficient. They did not believe in government debt and demanded that their national bank keep a large amount of gold as a reserve for their currency.  This made Switzerland an ideal banking center in those days plus made Switzerland a refuge in times of turmoil. Swiss francs in a Swiss bank account were considered one of the ultimate forms of financial safety.

This all changed. The computer, new tactics in war and the global economic community turned everything upside down. The computer was like the Colt .45, a great equalizer, making bankers in England, Italy or Spain, etc. as efficient as the Swiss. New instruments of war, intercontinental and cruise missiles, nuclear weapons, etc. dramatically reduced Switzerland’s natural defences.

Most of all, the global economic community forced Swiss banks to deal in US dollars, British
pounds, Japanese yen and German marks. Swiss banks had to open centers abroad and hence became vulnerable to other country’s laws. They lost much of their independence!

Today Swiss banks are affected by what happens in the US and other countries.  More importantly, the Swiss franc can no longer be allowed to be the reserve currency of last resort. Switzerland is a poor country in terms of natural resources lacking oil, minerals and the ability to feed itself.

Switzerland is a trading nation and must have its currency at parity with other nations which allows them to export goods.  It must export to survive. A large segment of its exports go to Germany. When the Swiss franc becomes too strong, especially against the euro, the Swiss react quickly to force its parity down.

During the 1970s recession when investors began flocking to the franc, the Swiss National Bank imposed a 12% per quarter negative tax on Swiss franc accounts over 100,000 SFR held by overseas investors.

In the last five years, the Swiss franc appears to have really strengthened versus the Euro as this chart (2) from Xe.com shows.

swiss franc chart

Click on image to enlarge.

This chart shows a special risk in the Swiss franc. The Swiss National Bank protects the SFR and has a nasty habit (see 2011 and 2015) of manipulating the SFR exchange rate. The sharp drop of the franc earlier this year is like a spring ready to push the parity of the Swiss franc back down versus the euro.

This also gives a distorted view of the Swiss franc Euro relationship.  The Swiss franc has simply switched its parity with the US dollar and as the chart (3) shows.  The franc has maintained its value with the dollar now for five years.  I believe this is because someone at the Swiss National Bank is smart enoughj to know that the dollar is too strong and when it corrects, the francs parity will move back closer to the euro.

This was really bad for speculators who were long in Swiss francs, a brilliant move on the part of the Swiss National Bank.  Investors will think twice about jumping into the Swiss franc thinking they can make an automatic profit.

swiss franc chart

Since the US dollar is seriously overbought, the suggestion is that when the greenback corrects versus the euro, so too will the Swiss franc.

Switzerland is a good banking center, yes.  The Swiss franc may be a strong, stable currency, yes, but the Swiss cannot afford to let the franc rise too high and the profit potential on Swiss franc investments is extremely low.  The Swiss SNI Stock Market index has risen 33% in the last five years, compared to a rise of over 60% in the Dow Jones Index.  Since the currency parities have remained equal, investors in the SNI have earned half the profits as investors in the Dow.

Why choose a currency that is not likely to go anywhere when you are not getting paid a handsome income return?

I have shared this information for at least fifteen years warning not to invest too much in Swiss francs, especially when it is strong and overall this has been correct.  I have not changed my opinion on this.  If you find a good value investment denominated in Swiss francs, go for it, but overweighting a portfolio in this currency runs the risk of muddled returns at best.

Gary

Learn how to master inflation.

To help you gain mastery over your investments and all your important goals in life, this week only Amazon.com has a countdown special on the Kindle edition of Bob Gandt and my new book MASTERY for only $2.99.   The print list price $13.99, the Kindle regular price $6.99.  Download it directly to your Kindle reader or onto your PC, Mac or tablet on an app from the Amazon page.

mastery

Order MASTERY (this week only) at Amazon.com for $2.99

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

(1) https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/che/

(2) http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=CHF&view=5Y

(3) http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CHF&view=5Y

How to Prosper in the Worst Times


Many readers send me notes about our political system that sounds like sour grapes (frustrated).  Other notes I receive are more like the grapes of wrath (angry).   Many readers are angry, many are frustrated and most are a little afraid.

Let’s remind ourselves of some basics and remember even rotten grapes can be turned into sweet wine.  See below a way to earn extra profit with a falling US dollar.

grape pie

Concord grapes from our little vineyard at Merrily Farms.

A reader sent this note:  Hi Gary,  If the USD is replaced as the world’s “go to” currency, we’ll have a major crash in this country.  I believe it’s inevitable.  So what references can you offer to help us prepare for the worst?  Your input will be greatly appreciated.  Please tell Merri hello and give her our best.

My reply:  First, a weak dollar is not a bad thing for Americans.  Imports cost more but the US still has the largest domestic economy in the world by far.  Here are the stats from the IMF for 2014 (1).

Rank   Country                 GDP   $ Millions

1          United States           17,418,925
2         China                         10,380,380
3         Japan                          4,616,335
4         Germany                    3,859,547
5         United Kingdom      2,945,146
6         France                        2,846,889
7         Brazil                          2,353,025

Right now there is a very good case for diversifying out of the US dollar into the Euro.  This ten year chart of the Euro shows how it has been dropping in waves versus the US dollar since 2008.  The dollar’s strength since late 2013 suggests that the green back is very overbought.  The Euro zone has lower debt as a percent of GDP, a smaller deficit and a much better trade balance.  All of these fundamental strengths give the euro a good reason to surge.

US dollar

Chart from www.xe.com (1)

Our reports  “3 Economic Conditions for 50% Profits or More” and  “Silver Dip 2015”  both show how to to profit when the US dollar falls.

The loss of purchasing power of all currencies are a growing global problem.  The US dollar has been losing purchasing power since I began traveling and investing in the late 1960s.  Today almost every currency is under pressure because almost every government has used the same overspending tactics as has the US.

Winston Churchill outlined the crux of the problem when he said: “If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country.  And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire.

The opposite has evolved.  Modern communications and technology have allowed a growing population that is increasingly connected.

Technology creates greater wealth.  Communications allow even the poorest to know about (and desire) this wealth.  As always, the extra wealth is not distributed equally or fairly but in the modern world technology allows the poor to express their frustration in deadly ways, if they don’t get enough of the added affluence.

This is why no one is isolated from the Syrian problem.  This is why a very small number of people at ISIS can affect most of us wherever we are in the world.  This is why no one country can (or should) be allowed to crash.

Inflation is one way of creating soft landings to these equality distribution problems.

Here are some of the steps we have taken to reduce the effects of inflation and gain from currency fluctuations..

First, we have expanded our investments in rental real estate.   We reduced our equity position, almost totally eliminated bonds and added rental income property.  Rental property is a lot more work than investments in CDS or bonds (not enough return) or buying US shares (hard to find value).

We aimed for a sweet spot, two and three bedroom houses that rent for about $1000 a month.  Our renters are mostly working professionals, teachers, police, foremen and retired couples.  The reasoning is that these are stable renters and rents will rise with inflation and provide a sufficient income.

In stock investing we are investing in value markets outside the USA  (explained in the report “3 Economic Conditions for 50% Profits or More” and  and speculating in precious metals as in our report “Silver Dip 2015”.

Second, we have moved to remote places away from the madding crowd and more out of harms way from traffic jams, noise, pollution, riots and such.  I want to point out that this decision was not made because we think the world or the US dollar is coming to an end.  Life is just better out here in nowhere for us.  If we loved shopping and concerts, theater, socializing, dining in restaurants. etc. our decision might be different, but we do not. We love land, fresh air, lots of water and space and we like to stay at home or with our children and grandchildren.

Third, we stay away form the US medical system as much as we can and work at maintaining good natural health.  Fortunately, we really like to garden so I get good exercise growing some of our own food.  This provides a double benefit, the exercise and truly ripe, organic food picked right off the vine eaten with fish from the creek or lake.

grape pie

Finally, I am very picky about reading the news, never at night and only looking at specific items that might relate to what we are doing.  So much of the global medias is aimed at instilling and/or enhancing fear.  What a shame to live in more fear than is required!

The world, governments and the currencies they issue have changed a lot in the last 45 years that I have been multi currency investing.  The almighty may not have listened to Winston Churchill for evolutionary planning, but we have been given two key economic essentials, that are the very basics of all economics, more demand, (a growing population) and  more supply (increased productivity).

There are plenty of distortions and displacements caused by unequal distribution of wealth.  These errors remain and will remain cause of concern and of inflation.  The overall trend however is of greater wealth. When we achieve mastery at selecting currencies and live in a peaceful healthy way, we can increase our share of this wealth.

grape pie

Grape pie we recently baked from grapes off our vines at the farm.  It was not sour. Nor was there any wrath involved!

To help you gain mastery over all your important goals in life, this week only Amazon.com has a countdown special on the Kindle edition of Bob Gandt and my new book MASTERY for only $2.99.   The print list price $13.99, the Kindle regular price $6.99.  Download it directly to your Kindle reader or onto your PC, Mac or tablet on an app from the Amazon page.

mastery

Order MASTERY (this week only) at Amazon.com for $2.99

Gary

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

(1) IMF GDP Stats

(2)  Euro Dollar Chart at www.xe.com

Beat Inflation – Reduce Tax


A micro business in writing can create income that beats inflation as it reduces tax.

Money does not guarantee happiness but up to about $75,000 a year of income, money does help.  If you are turning your passion into profit, then it is even easier to be content with your labors.   The value of labor rises with inflation.  That $75,000 threshold will be worth $38,126 in ten years if inflation is 7%.  $75,000 of today’s purchasing power will require $147,536.

Good labor is not drudgery and does not have to be work.

The beauty of learning to serve in a fulfilling way is the process of earning can be fun.

Take the example of Denis Malloy’s new book  “Eat Local Anywhere”.   Our  course “Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher” helped Denis write this book.

eat local anywhere

Denis’s guide is for local restaurants in different parts of the world that are not specifically designed to attract tourists.  They are restaurants featuring authentic, local cuisine for local residents.  The moderate prices on their menus and the authentic representation make these great places to eat as you travel.

Learn more about Denis Malloy’s “Eat Local Anywhere” at Amazon.com

To research this book, here are a few of the places Denis had to travel so eat in many of the restaurants there.

Brussels, Belgium

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Quito, Ecuador

Punta Del Este, Uruguay

Santiago, Chile

Montevideo, Uruguay

Paris, France

Sait Jean de Luz, Pyrenees-Atlantiques,  France

Sheboygan, Wisconsin

Del Ray Beach, Florida

Do you think his research was drudgery?  Look at the service he provided, a valuable guide to good restaurants offering great food and low prices. here is a bigger social element here.  By helping promote local restaurants that serve good local food, Denis is helping short circuit big agri business and  chains that increasingly dominate commerce and pollute our bodies and the environment.

In addition Denis gained enormous tax advantages.

Fight inflation, reduce tax, help the world, be fulfilled.  Never give up the ability to serve.

Our upcoming Value Investing Seminar features many cash savings ideas via tax reduction.

Gary

Learn Fun & Profitable Tax Secrets

Imagine this, micro businesses are such good ways to create wealth and reduce tax that even cruises can be tax deductible.

Small family owned businesses have some of the best tax benefits.

Micro businesses have huge tax savings using really conservative strategies.

conrad oertwig

Conrad Oertwig (far right) after a seminar when delegates visit our North Carolina home.

This is why I am delighted that our tax preparer, Conrad Oertwig, who is a master of tax savings information, has agreed to speak at our October 17-18, 2015 Value Investment Seminar.

Conrad Oertwig can assist you on tax matters.  IN FACT THIS FALL, Conrad will be offering a course and personal service on ways that one-person and family business owners can have more cash via tax savings.   Conrad is offering a report on seven ways to put more cash on the table when you earn and is releasing a course on how to save taxes this fall.

Conrad’s report is “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business”.  He sent me this note to share with you about the report.

From: Conrad Oertwig

One hard fact of life is that taxes are cash.  It’s a mistake to think of taxes as taxes.  If you want to create more net worth, you need to think of taxes as cash.

How much tax cash are you leaving on the table? Thousands? Tens of thousands?

Here are just three of seven secrets I will share with Gary Scott readers at the October 17-18 Value Investment Seminar and in my report.   Learn how to pay less tax, have more cash, and build your net worth.

Secret # 1: Gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business.  In the past, your tax adviser likely told you to drive one vehicle for business and the other vehicle for personal purposes. This old advice made it easier to claim the one car as a business car because no business mileage log was required back then. But that’s no longer true.

Today, tax law requires you to keep a mileage log to prove business use. That changes the game. With today’s rules, you gain nothing by using only one car. But the new mileage log rule gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions.

First, you might ask: Will the IRS allow me to use more than one vehicle for business?

Yes! The IRS official method for computing business use of a single vehicle is to divide business miles by total miles driven. IRS Form 4562, which is filed by proprietorships and corporations, contains spaces for up to six vehicles. In other words, yes, the IRS recognizes that you can drive more than one vehicle.

Here are the two basics that make the two-vehicle strategy work:
1:  You drive more miles than your spouse, and
2:  Both vehicles are somewhat close in adjusted basis.
To see if you can benefit from this two-vehicle strategy, and by how much (the minimum amount, really), apply the arithmetic from the before-and-after example below to your vehicles.

Before. You drive 2,000 personal and 28,000 business miles on your vehicle (93% business). Your spouse drives 8,000 personal miles on vehicle 2. Each vehicle has an adjusted basis of $24,000. Your maximum depreciation and/or Section 179 deduction is $22,400 (93% times $24,000) on the one vehicle you currently drive for business.

After. You switch vehicles with your spouse every week. You now have 73.7% business use of vehicle 1 and 73.7% business use of vehicle 2. This produces $35,376 in maximum depreciation and/or Section 179 deductions (73.7% x 2 x $24,000).

You gain $12,976 in new deductions ($35,376 minus $22,400). You did not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny. You simply had to know (as you learned here) that this strategy could work for you.

Secret #2:  Have a second office in the home.

Have you been told that because you have an office outside your home that you may not have an office in the home?  That’s wrong!

IRS publication 463 states, “You can have more than one business location, including your home, for a single trade or business.”  Learn why in the free report due to IRS publication 587 you want your office in the home to qualify as an administrative office.

Secret #3: Travel by cruise ship and deduct up to $680 a day.

When you know the rules, it’s easy to travel to a business meeting by cruise ship rather than by airplane or other mode of transportation.  Tax law provides various ways for you to deduct a cruise.  The free report shows an example of a trip to St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands from California or New York.

Learn about IRS Regulation 1.274-4 that gives you two one-owner business friendly rules that you can use to your benefit:

1:  The United States means the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
2: Transportation cost to a foreign destination for seven days or less, excluding the day of departure, is not subject to an allocation between business and personal days.

In the example if you fly to Miami, Florida, board a cruise ship that will take five days to arrive at St. Thomas your deductions will include the cost of:

1 :  Travel to Miami
2:   Cruise ship fare to St. Thomas (not to exceed tax law’s luxury boat limits that range in 2014 from a low of $566 to $680 per day, depending on the dates of travel)
3:   Food and lodging in St. Thomas
4:   Airfare to Miami
5 :  Travel from Miami to home

You have to admit, tax knowledge can be fun which is why I want to send you this free report.

I specialize in “nuts and bolts” tax strategies that bring tax law to life so that business taxpayers and professional tax advisers can put the law to work for them.  In fact, my mission is to clarify taxes so that you take control of your money.

Plucking common sense from the tax law is time consuming and difficult work.  Yet, after more than 25 years, I still get great satisfaction when I can clarify and extract tax dollars from the tax law not only for your pockets but also to add to your net worth.  In fact I have extracted over 400 tax savings tips and would like to share the most important lessons with you so am creating a course that will share seven tax secrets each month for the next year.

Sincerely,

Conrad Oertwig

Learn how to have a tax advantaged one person or family owned micro business.

Conrad has dozens of tax savings secrets he will explain at our October 17-18 Value Investment Seminar.   To help you get an early start, we will send you Conrad’s report “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business”, when you enroll in the seminar.

Get seminar details here

 

Medical Inflation


What has the worst potential to ruin quality of life?   I believe it is medical inflation.  This problem of rising cost and lowered quality goes beyond just destroying our health.  The horrifying statistics below show why.

chicago tribune

Chicago Tribune 1942.

I came across this information while researching my latest report, The Silver Dip 2015.  I wanted to answer the question, “What is the real value of  silver?”

There are so many pros and cons about whether precious metals will rise or fall, that I wanted to keep the process simple.  I figured the easiest way to see real value is by comparing purchasing power.  I wanted to see how many ounces of silver it took to buy certain basics in the past compared to now.  If a hundred ounces of silver would buy a car or a tenth of a house 75 years ago, what would it buy now?  If it bought more then, it is likely undervalued.   If it bought less, then the price of silver would be too high.

My research had me looking at the cost of everything over many time periods. The goal was to get a handle on real inflation so this one article in the March 31, 1942 issue of the Chicago tribune (1) intrigued me.

The article says:  Randolph Paul, tax adviser to Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morganthau suggested that deductions be permitted for extraordinary medical excesses.  He mentioned that 5 percent of net income as a normal medical outlay .

Normal health care costs were 5% of an American family’s outlay at that time.  Today this percentage is stated to be between 18% and rising.  How could this be?

A US Bureau of Labor Statistics report entitled  “100 years of price change” (2) shows that after WWII health care was the fastest rising annualized increase of selected components in the cost of living from 1951–1968:

Food, 1.3 percent
Rent, 2.0 percent
Apparel, 1.2 percent
Medical care, 3.8 percent
Transportation, 2.1 percent
Services, 3.2 percent
Commodities, 1.1 percent
Gasoline, 1.9 percent

Medical care continued to have one of the highest rates of inflation in 1968-1983:

Food, 7.1 percent
Energy, 9.9 percent
All items less food and energy, 7.0 percent
Rent, 5.7 percent
Apparel, 4.2 percent
Medical care, 8.4 percent
Transportation, 7.3 percent
Services, 8.2 percent
Commodities, 6.6 percent
Gasoline, 9.1 percent

Then medical care costs really took off.   Here are some overall numbers from justfacts.com (3)

Between 1960 and 2009, healthcare spending in the United States increased:

• from a yearly average of $147 per person to $8,086 (by 55 times).

• from a yearly average of $1,082 per person in inflation-adjusted 2010 dollars to $8,218 (by 7.6 times).

• from 5.2% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 17.8% (by 3.4 times).

Let’s think about this.  In 1942, the price for a maternity room averaged around $7.00 per day or about $100 a day if adjusted for inflation.  Today, the price for a maternity room can zoom up to $1,500 per day.

This appears to be getting worse!

A recent Finance.yahoo article shows that in 2015 there was “An eyebrow-raising jump in the prices of medical care that helped boost the Consumer Price Index” (4).   The jump was so high it surprised economists and health-care experts, who could not figure out what’s driving the large increase.

One expert told CNBC that after looking at a decade’s worth of data, and after speaking to half a dozen economists and health-care analysts about the medical care cost increase in April 2015, a major cause appeared to be hikes in the prices of hospital services.

The medical care index rose 0.7 percent in April compared to the overall Consumer Price Index rising just 0.1 percent for the month.  Hospital services rose 1.9 percent for the month which equals a nearly 24 percent annual rate of hospital services inflation.

However, rising unacceptable costs in US medical services have not brought us better medical care.  According to the Commonwealth Fund survey, US healthcare ranks dead last compared to 10 other developed countries. (5)   Americans pay more and get less.  This fact is growing worse.  This is why learning how to avoid the health care system and maintain natural good health grows in importance for a good quality of life.

Gary

Good health is a vital component in everlasting wealth.  This is why our Value Investing Seminar has one session on how to have good natural health.

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

(1)  archives.chicagotribune.com 1942 tax credit for unusual medical costs

(2) www.bls.gov One hundred years of price change

(3)  www.justfacts.com healthcare costs

(4) Finance.yahoo.com medical cost inflation hits 8 year high

(5)  www.forbes.com us healthcare ranked dead last

Two Most Important Financial Tips


The two most important financial tips have nothing to do with investing at all.   These tips have to do with a part of our lives that has serious inflation.  Starting last April, (2015)  there was an eyebrow-raising jump in the prices of medical care. This jump was so high it surprised economists and health-care experts, who can’t figure out what’s driving the large increase.  The first monthly blip up 1.9% in one month, is an annual rate of 24% per annum.

The first first tip is “avoid medical expenses.”

medical cost inflation

Portion of income spent on health care chart from justfacts.com (1).  [Click on chart to enlarge.]

Recently I was combing through some old papers of my mom’s and found a receipt from the Providence Hospital in Portland, Oregon for my birth.  $65.  I recall paying for my first daughter’s birth, a C-section, $630.

According to justfacts.com, “In 1942, the price for a maternity room at Christ Hospital in Jersey City, NJ was $7.00 per day.  Adjusting for inflation, this amounts to $97.29 in 2011 dollars.  In 2011, the price for a maternity room at the same hospital was $1,360 per day.”

According to whattoexpect.com (2) “A 2014 study by the University of California, San Francisco found that hospital charges for an uncomplicated delivery ranged from $3,296 to $37,227, depending on the hospital.  For a C-section, costs ranged from $8,312 to nearly $71,000.”

Medical expenses have more potential to ruin your wealth than any other cost.

The second tip is “Have good health”.   One of our most powerful financial assets is good health, energy and a calm excitement  that starts every day. 

One of the best ways to create this positive mood is a morning self massage with essential oils.  Research confirms that self-massage produces oxytocin.  This Nona peptide produced by the hypothalamus linked to feelings of well being and release of stress.

A self massage balances the immune system, modulates hormones, makes the skin look and feel good as it improves our mood.  Using essential oils enhance these effects, because we can go one step further and target the mood we want to balance.

Many health sciences look at good health as being the correct interaction between three elements of the body viewed as (1) air, (2) fire and (3) water.   These elements represent motion (air), digestion (fire), and the solid form in which we exist (water).  When any of these three elements are out of balance, the imbalance creates dis – ease.

The two fastest and most powerful ways to shift these elements is through the skin or the lungs.

The Indian science of life, Ayurved, suggests a 20 minute self massage of the head, face and ears, neck, arms, hands, fingers, back and spine, legs and feet.

If you are like me, you rarely have time for that!

I already do 35 minutes of meditation, 15 minutes of exercise and a 15 minute sauna.  By that time I am ready to get going.  So I hit the important points, the face, neck, ears especially,  joints, knees, elbows and lastly the feet.   The feet and ears are considered especially important.

During the massage, I focus my thoughts on gratitude, love and am as aware and focused on each  stroke.  We are what we think and science produces evidence that the more attention we give each stroke, the more oxytocin is produced.

Four ways to avoid higher health costs.

There is a simple way to decide which oil to use because our emotions give us clues about any imbalance.  If we feel angry, the imbalance is fire, anxious is air and depressed is water.

There are four essential oil blends that Merri and I use all created by our friends, Candace and John Newman.  For years Candace traveled with Merri and me to Ecuador and visited us at our North Carolina farm to study shamans and their use of these oils… known as aqua flora.

We purchase all our oils from her because her pure essential oils are gathered from around the world and are of the highest quality to insure their medicinal properties.

She uses no synthetic fragrances.  Her blends are of the highest quality ingredients and her formulas include base ingredients such as Organic Golden Jojoba, aloe and coconut oil.  The four balancing blends are:

Soother Blend:    Cedarwood, Geranium, Patchouli, Orange, Ylang YlangThe Soother Blend pacifies an air imbalance when feeling anxious or jittery.  This blend has the grounding oils of Cedarwood, Patchouli; balancing nerves with deep sweet Geranium combined with the sweet, uplifting touch of Orange and Ylang Ylang.

Balancer Blend:    Lavender, Orange, Peppermint, Roman Chamomile.  The Balancer Blend eases fire when feeling anger or resentment.

Stimulator Blend:  Eucalyptus, Cypress, Lemon, Lavender, Rosemary.  The Stimulator Blend shakes up water, gets the rivers moving and clears with Eucalyptus, Lemon, Cypress, Rosemary. A touch of Lavender adds balance to the whole mix.

Comforter Blend:  Lavender, Rose Otto, Frankincense.  When the need for feeling just fine, the Comforter Blend keeps the balance.

Each of these four blends is available individually in a healing cobalt glass bottle with pump top for home or office.

essential oil

Learn more about these blends at Candace and John’s website.

Soother 4 oz

Balancer 4 oz

Stimulator 4 oz

Comforter 4 oz

essential oil

This chart shows how to use these essential oil blends to maintain a good natural health balance.

Hidden high inflation, especially medical costs and low interest rates create great threats to our wealth and health.  Avoid high medical costs and have good health by balancing the body with essential oils.

Gary

(1)  https://www.justfacts.com/healthcare.asp

(2)  http://www.whattoexpect.com/pregnancy/pregnancy-costs/

Learn Seven Ways to Reduce Health Care Costs at our Value Investing Seminar.  One session of the seminar covers shamanic health secrets that can help maintain good natural health.

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary