Tag Archive | "Financial economics"

Robbing All Investors – All the Time


Years ago, a major stock brokerage firm coined the phrase “Measuring Success One Investor at a Time” in their promotions.   There have been many “One (fill in the blank)” at a Time” type of ads since.

Regretfully the reality is that for the overall financial industry, a more accurate promotion would be “Robbing All Investors – All the Time”.

One example of financial robbery is “Spoofing”, one part of a form of unethical computer trading called “Frequency Trading”.  “Spoofing” was born of changes in equity markets made by computerized trading.  Spoofing has been made illegal in an attempt to close this loophole.

A New York Times article, “In Britain, Libor-Rigging Conspiracy Case Is Also a Test for Regulators” shows that spoofing is only one way that the financial industry has been ripping off as many investors as it can.

The article tells how British authorities have charged one 35-year-old former trader from Citigroup and UBS with eight counts of conspiracy to commit fraud.  This trader was not acting alone. The indictment claims he was a ringleader among more than a dozen traders engaged in manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, a reference rate used to set various others, including those for student loans and mortgages.

These were not back street shady operators either.  UBS, Citbank, Barclays, Deutsche are some of the banks who have  have paid more than $9 billion to settle allegations that some of their traders manipulated Libor and other related interest rate benchmarks.  Is this a one off incident?  The article says: In total, banks have paid more than $160 billion since 2009 to settle charges related to issues such as rigging interest rate benchmarks, manipulating currencies, mis-selling insurance, packaging toxic mortgages and evading taxes, among others.

The allegation is that traders intentionally moved the rates close to the time of the fix to benefit their own trading books.

The traders even joked about this and in one email, a trader said, “If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying.”

This is one more example of  greed dominating the history of stock trading.  Since equity trading began there has been a never ending battle between authorities and unethical trading.  Every time a loophole is closed, another is found.  We cannot depend on the authorities to totally protect us as investors.  Nor can we expect our banks and brokers to protect us either.

Maintain a relentless search for value, think long term, diversify and buy and sell based on numbers that support the logic of your strategy, not based on panic or euphoria in the market.

Gary

(1)  In Britain, Libor-Rigging Conspiracy Case Is Also a Test for Regulators

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary

 

Not All ETFs Are Equal


Our latest report shows ways to get good low cost, global, good value diversification with ETFs.   Like all investments not all ETFs are of equal value.   As the popularity of ETFs grow, so too do the introduction of vogue ETFs that do not represent such great value.

One readers sent this excellent question about ETFs:  Hi Gary,  thanks for the interesting report.  At first glance I believed the idea of ETFs to be a great opportunity, however, after a deeper look it seems the parasites are having their way with ETF investors as well.  I am not sure about all of the ways in which the bankers fix ETFs to their favor but, for example, I see that some ETFs don’t rise as much as the index they are tracking rises, and falls further when that index falls.   Also, with an ETF your investment is only as good as the ultra leveraged derivative bets made by the investment bank that issues them.  So if that investment bank goes bust, your investment probably will too.  In other words, by purchasing an ETF issued by Morgan Stanley you are taking on some of the risk that Morgan Stanley remains solvent and that the entire derivatives market remains liquid.  Unlike holding real shares of real corps in Germany, for example, that are tied directly to the solvency and liquidity of those businesses.

The title of this message, “Not All ETFs are Created Equal” is the first answer to this question.   Four websites are linked below to help clarify this fact.  Like all investment types there are different horses for different courses.

Here are a few points to help each reader decide if ETFs are good for their financial strategy and if so, which ETFs are the right ones.

To begin we need to remember the overlying rule of all investments, “Caveat Emptor”, buyer beware.  A better phrase is “Buyer Be Aware”.   We need to be sure we understand the strategy of the specific ETFs we invest in. We need to look inside the ETF to see what shares are held in its portfolio.  ETFs are required to disclose their portfolio on a  daily basis at the fund’s website.

We need to read the prospectus carefully to understand the investment strategy of the ETF as this can have a significant impact on, income, tax and timing of profits.

Some ETFs use cap-weighted baskets of securities, others use fundamental-weighted baskets, and some even use derivative products.  There are even some now that use an active or quasi-active management style.  Each investment approach carries with it very different risk/return profiles and tax consequences.

Many index ETFs look the same, but operate very differently.  Review risks, costs and timing with your advisor to be sure that the ETFs you choose fits your specific situation.  ETFs are a hybrid of stock and mutual fund.  As a mutual fund, good ETFs have very low fees, but as stocks their price is ruled by supply and demand. ETF market prices can differ from net asset value.  We want to avoid buying ETFs at a premium (price much higher than net asset value).

The purchase of an ETF creates a brokerage commission every time it is bought or sold.  Brokerage commissions are usually fixed from a few dollars per trade to $20 a trade.  The more we buy at one time the lower the cost as a percentage of the investment.  This favors larger lump-sum investments and means that dollar cost averaging in small investments should be avoided.  The transaction costs can hurt a dollar-cost averaging in small amounts.  Larger quarterly or semi annual investments may be better than small monthly purchases.

We should consider the total costs before investing.  An expense ratio tells how much an ETF costs.   The expense ratio doesn’t include the brokerage commissions.

The average ETF has an expense ratio in the 0.50%, which means the fund will cost you $5.00 in annual fees for every $1,000 invested.  The best bet for small investors is to use online brokers that charge low or no commissions, IF the ETFs they offer fit our needs.  We look for brokers who offer what we need.  Smaller brokerage firms may have a limited selection of ETFs.

We look for the most widely-used and easy to trade ETFs for safety and to reduce buy and sell spreads.  Many ETFs that track long-standing indexes such as the S&P 500 have stood the test of time.  Many new ETFs stretch the definition of indexing.   Be careful of new indexes that track unusual segments of the market.   Avoid newfangled ETFs unless you understand them well.  Beware of leveraged ETFs. These investments are usually composed of derivative instruments and aim to provide investors with daily performance that tracks the underlying index (including leverage).  These are helpful for professional traders making bets on a daily basis, but ordinary investors should avoid them.

We need to be careful of thinly traded ETFs.  We can usually sell an ETF at any time during the trading day, but the growing number of narrowly-focused and exotic ETFs have not passed the test of time and many are more expensive.

We avoid these funds unless we really know what we are doing and the ETF specifically fits our strategy.   Passively managed ETFs are designed to track an index. Actively managed ETFs permit the fund manager to buy and sell securities and derivatives according to a stated strategy, described in  the prospectus.   A benefit of index ETFs is they are transparent and are not dependent on a fund manager who might lose his touch, retire or quit.  The exotic and managed ETFs do not provide this benefit.

ETFs can be sold short and many have related options contracts, which allow investors to control large numbers of shares with less money than if they owned the shares outright.  These positions can create short term aberrations in the ETF share price so we check them out.

Esoteric ETFs can have low trading volume and larger spreads which increases cost and volatility. Avoid a liquidity problem, by using larger funds that have proven themselves.  We avoid this problem by looking for substantial assets and large daily trading volume.

Here is a summation of what Merri and I do and you may want to do as well.  We look for two types of ETFs.  One is passive ETFs that fit into our strategy of investing in good value markets around the world.  The second are active ETFs that focus on high income, good value shares in good value markets.  We dollar cost average on a quarterly basis to keep buying commission costs down.  We buy long term positions to keep tax and selling costs down.   We look for ETFs in these two categories, that have low expense rations, large portfolios and high trying volume.

Gary

(1) New York Stock Exchange  What you should know about ETFs

(2) www.dailyfinance.com  10 rules before investing in ETFs

(3) CNCB- ETFs – what you should know

(4) Wall Street Journal How to Choose an ETF

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary

 

Bull or Bear


The super heated stock market leaves most investors thinking they have enjoyed a really terrific bull market run.

Their lack of seeing the big picture, plus a bit of government fiddling with interest rates, obscures an odd truth.  This has not been a bull market at all.

Yesterday’s message, “Reverse Engineering Profits” (1) showed that a lot of investment advisers are preparing for a bear equity market.  History suggests that they are wise to do so, but for the wrong reason.  When that correction arrives, it will signal a shift that will fool most professional investors.

Screen shot 2014-09-30 at 9.44.58 AM

War and Peace – Bull and Bear.  This chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Index gives a huge clue that can help you be prepared to really cash in.

A benefit of investing, writing and speaking about international investments for 46 years are the feelings gained beyond logic.   Over this length of time numerous heart thumping ups and gut wrenching downs have come along.  Experiencing these emotions provides a degree of confidence that allows one to wander from the thundering herd.

These feelings, combined with history and logic suggests that the upcoming global stock correction will signal the end of a 14 to 17 year bear and the beginning of the a bull market that will run till about 2028.

What? A bull market?  The Dow and S&P are near all time high levels!

Yet a multitude of economic facts and a long view of market activity show that we are near the end of a 15-17 year bear cycle that began 14 years ago in 2000.

This chart of the DJI from 1960 to 1980 shows that over 16 years  the Dow moved from 995 to 776, a 22% loss.  Then in 1982 a bull market began that lasted for 17 years.

Screen shot 2014-09-30 at 9.45.13 AM

These cycles are based on an underlying phenomenon of nature that leads to peace and war.

Screen shot 2014-09-30 at 9.45.22 AM

You can see the 15 to 17 year cycle similarities by comparing the 1960 to 1980  with the  2000 to 2014 chart.

Here is how the cycle goes.  There is a war.  The struggle of war leads humanity to throw away all concepts of return on investment and create new technology regardless of the cost.

After the war the new technology is domesticated.

This domesticated technology improves human productivity.

Markets oversell the benefits gained from the technology and create a bubble.

The bubble breaks and the markets crash.

The crash leads to an economic recession which leads to war. The cycle starts all over again as the War and Peace – Bull and Bear chart above shows.

The Dow has moved in approximate 15-17 year bull and bear cycles. The market rises in the bear cycles but not much…plus there is a lot of sideways motion that can chop the non thinking investor to pieces.

For example, in the last bear from 1966-1982, the Dow fell from 995 to 776, a 22% loss.

If this logic is correct we are near the end of a 15-17 year down cycle which began 14 years ago in 2000.

The questions are: What war?  What great new technology?  When exactly?

The future will reveal the answers to these questions, but for now the important point is that we should be prepared.  Expect a correction in stock markets.  Expect the  economic tension created by this fall to erupt into some sort of epic struggle.  There are plenty of socio-economic fissures that can crack, Ukraine, ISIS, Ebola, Hong Kong not to mention global warming.  These will not be the reasons for the correction.  Whatever lightening bolt that stampedes the herd will simply be from the storm that has been building for 14 years.

This could happen next week, next month, next year or in a couple of years.  These cycles are not exact and they are distorted by human interference such as the current, very low interest rates that governments have created to stimulate economies.

When the correction takes place, your understanding of this big picture will help you know this is the beginning, not the end of a bull cycle.  This can help you grab good value bargains because short term thinking investors will wrongly believe the bear has begun.

There are plenty of steps you can take to profit and prepare now if you see the big picture.  Seeing a bear that most investors think is a bull is the first step.  Correct thinking is always the foundation of smart action and it is great to know that this foundation is really strong.

Gary

We’ll look at seven ways to invest into this positive scenario at the Montreal seminar October 10-11-12.

Turn Your Passion to Profit So You Never Run Out of Money

Use Super Thinking in two ways to earn everlasting wealth and fulfillment as you reduce stress.

First earn with online self publishing.   The three stories below show how Amazon.com and self publishing has enriched the lives of three others.

Online self publishing is creating a wealthy writer’s middle class.   Read the three stories of self publishing success below to learn a secret that new self publishers can use to make life rich.

In the past, a few writers made fortunes. The rest starved.  No more!  The old way of writing and publishing was great… if you like the lottery.   Not so good if you wanted an income for sure.

There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  Here are three stories of how new self publishers have used Amazon.com to make their lives better as they earned more.

Let’s start with Nickolette Goff who is retired and loves, organic gardening,  healthy cooking and visiting Ecuador.   She had never published a book and after our self publishing course she wrote and promoted her first book… a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes she garnered from her Ecuador trips.   She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

Nicki’s husband recently wrote:  Nicki, her sister and two nieces are visiting Ecuador for 3 weeks in January –  Her Kindle books have paid for her trip so she loves that.

Nicki’s first book sells for .99 cents and is ranked #266,764 of paid sales in the Kindle Store.    Even being ranked in the 200,000 class, Nicki has earned enough to travel to Ecuador.

Take Bob Gandt as another example.

Bob Gandt

Bob Gandt has had great writing success and has been published by numerous major publishers.  Bob’s niche is flying, war and writing.  He published his first story at age sixteen – the same year he first soloed an airplane.  Since then he has logged something over 25,000 hours, written fourteen books and published countless articles. Hearing the stories of others like Bob help me (as well as you) better understand how many different ways there are to Write to Sell.

At age 20 he was at the time the youngest aviator in the U.S. Navy. In 1965 he began his 26 year career as a pilot for Pan American World Airways.   His 1995 book, Skygods, (Wm. Morrow & Co.), recounts the meteoric descent and crash of the once-great Pan Am. His 1997 book “Bogeys and Bandits” (Viking Penguin) told of a training squadron at the same base where he had trained years before.

This book led to a CBS series Pensacola: Wings Of Gold.   Bob was the writer and technical consultant for these twenty-two-episodes, which starred James Brolin as the commander of a Marine F/A-18 training squadron. Bob’s books were previously published by the big publishing houses, but now Bob’s focus is on self publishing.  As an author whose numerous books have been published for and sold through book stores, he sees the bookstore path filled with dinosaurs.

Bob started with print but took a special step that every writer should know.  This step has helped him add Ebooks to his stable of income producing systems.  Print and Ebooks are all part of the publishing process… but Ebooks make self publishing easier than ever before. Bob’s passion is flying and the military.  His books reflect this.

Learning and sharing your passion with like minded souls is just fun.  There is no other way to say it.  This is how life should be lived and self publishing lets you live it this way.

Yet despite an offer from a major publisher, Bob self published  his latest book at Amazon.com.  We helped introduce this book last April and it has reached #1o on the Military Thrillers best sellers list several times since! See Bob’s website here.

Another great story is about Hugh Howey, a writer that every self publisher should meet and hear.   Hugh had had just a little success with publishers, a book with modest success.

Hugh Howey

Hugh whipping me badly in a game of chess.

Hugh self published his book Wool.  Hugh was a bookstore clerk.  In his spare time he wrote science fiction and began self-publishing his work on Amazon.com in 2011.  Soon he was earning him over $100,000 a month on Amazon.  His books made the New York Times best seller list.  See Hugh Howey’s Amazon.com page here.

The formula that each of these writers has used is based around building a following for their books.  They wrote more than one book.  They sell their first book at a low price (free to .99 cents).  This compares to the typical $9.99 to $12.99 for books written by top branded authors on Kindle.

The low price starts building a readership.  In Hugh Howey’s case, he offered his first book free.  After the book became a best seller at Amazon.com, his other book sales, foreign rights, six figure print deal and film rights flowed naturally.

Nicki Goff and Bob Gandt are using this formula as well…  a  low priced first book attracts readers and builds a following for more…. higher priced, followup books.

This is one secret contained in our Self Publishing Course “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”.  

Online self publishing allows you to lower price…  increase volume and cut out a publisher, distributor and book store who normally absorb up to 88% of the income created by a book.

You can start self publishing with no printing costs, no shelf space, no inventory, no postal delivery.  Most of the publishing expenses are eliminated.

The writer keeps 70%.

Amazon keeps 30%.

A typical writer earning 12% of the wholesale book sales makes about $.60 per $9.99 book sale.  A Kindle writer makes $2.10 on a $3 sale.

Costs are reduced as well.  Nicki Goff, Bob Gandt and Hugh Howey all write at home with no office or staff overheads.  This is how most self publishers start so all the income generated is profit.

This is a new exciting era for writers.

Smart self publishers can begin earning quickly with no obstacles between their publication and the reading public.   New technology provides self publishers with the following benefits:

* Printing, shipping and disposal (of unsold books) costs eliminated.

* Shelf space unlimited and almost free with no capital costs.

* Increased sales volume. Kindle owners buy more books than print readers and will spend weekly to get new chapters rather than entire books.

Get a great head start on earning income through the the evolving online self publishing process that we reveal in our course.

Technology favors self publishers today. Portable computers, the internet, wireless access, on demand printing smart phones and electronic readers all create enormous new, quick earning potential for self publishers.

If you take advantage of this offer there is a new added benefit.   You receive the basic “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher 101”,  “Self Publishing 202… How to Publish on Kindle” and our newest course “Self Publishing 303 – Tapping into the Amazon Evolution”.

The goal of “Self Publishing 303” is to help writers take advantage of a new trends at Amazon.com.   During the initial stages these new features offer the greatest potential.

Amazon.com publishing is evolving.  I have been studying, testing and publishing at Amazon.com and applying new technology offered by Amazon.com.  The  303 sessions share what I learned.

“Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”  teaches our proprietary step-by-step plan for getting your publishing business going… full or part-time… right away.

You learn:

* How you can start earning quickly  with a very small amount of money even if you do not write full time.

* 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

My wife, Merri, and I became multi-millionaires in our own self-publishing business over 40+ years.  Today, we have more cars than we can drive, five homes and numerous cabins in North Carolina and Ecuador.  We have a beautiful lake front home on 16 acres (with an orange grove to boot).  We have no mortgages, not a penny of debt, and plenty of money in the bank.  More importantly even though we are well past retirement age, we can remain active,  love what we do… and make contributions to society that feel are meaningful.

Gain practical publishing ideas and case studies.

For example, you’ll learn about a pilot who published a book on the best airport cafés (suddenly all his flying became tax-deductible!)… how one couple who loved an island wrote a guide on the place and made enough money to buy a home on the beach there… and how another couple made millions with a simple legal idea.

What’s Your Passion: Travel and Tourism?

A client of ours amassed a fortune by starting travel guides for cities. He started with Sarasota, Florida, publishing a simple booklet with attractions, restaurants, etc. and plenty of advertising. Then he moved onto Naples, and on and on,until the whole state of Florida was done.

He didn’t have to put much work into the booklets as he could carry over plenty of generic information from booklet to booklet. But there were plenty of advertisers and plenty of people who wanted to obtain these booklets.

You learn:

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

“In Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” Merri and I give away every publishing secret we know to write to sell for a solid income.

Why we’ll add the Self Published Kindle addition free.

Our self publishing course has been a mainstay for almost three decades but is updated regularly.  The course is based on the trial and error experiences Merri and I have had for the past 47 years… the very experiences that have made us self-fulfilled multimillionaires.  We are continually adapting our business as the industry evolves.  Our course helps readers evolve with us.

There is more because Merri’s and my story goes beyond self publishing.  We have also always earned with travel.

The second way to get ahead is by getting ahead.  Really.

bell shaped curve

The bell shaped curve affects all trends.  The 15.75% of businesses and investors that really get ahead are the early adopters.  They gain the largest rewards.

You can get ahead because a new trend is on its way.   This is an era of rapid disruptive change that hits even the giants.  In fact the bigger they are… the more vulnerable they become.  Amazon.com for example has turned huge industries upside down… and knocked booksellers, publishers and many retail businesses to their knees, but is Amazon.com the giant that will stumble next?

Our online course “Event – Full Business, How to Profit From an Events Business” teaches how to earn by conducting seminars and tours.

Self publishing at Amazon.com is evolving.   The idea of simply publishing and just waiting for royalties to roll in, is well along the bell shaped curve.  Amazon will be with us for some time…  but new technologies that can disrupt Amazon.com are already on their way.

What’s Next? – Huge Profits For the Early Adapter

Amazon.com will change.  The firm has incredible income but small profit.   Amazon.com is the 1,000 pound  gorilla when it comes to selling books.  For how long?  Just when everyone thinks they have the system figured out… a new disruption comes along.   Ask the guys at Borders or Barnes & Noble!   Wait… that’s right. I forgot.  Borders is gone.  Barnes & Noble’s retails sales have been decreasing for years.

Be a Micro Amazon.com.  A new trend is rising… small companies with Amazon.com like capabilities.   Early adopters have a chance to get ahead of this trend by mastering the 7Ps.

Our two online courses, “Self Fulfilled – How to Self Publish” and “Event – Full Business – How to Profit From an Events Business”, both teach how to use the 7Ps.  The two courses work together in a synergistic way so you can create a micro publishing seminar business as Merri and I have.

The 7 Ps are “For Certain” principles in this uncertain world.

The 7Ps are  Passion – Problem – Person – Product – Prospecting Path – Promise – Presentation and go beyond change.

Whatever disruption new technology brings, the 7Ps create opportunity because they identify, reach, engage, focus and solidify customers at a profit.

The Ps are really important to any writer, publisher or micro business because they transcend all forms of technology.  They are a constant in an ever changing world.

The 7Ps reflect an immutable logic that worked in paper based publishing before computers.  They worked with computerized Cheshire labels.  The 7Ps worked  with jet printing on envelopes and personalized emails.  They work for websites and blogs.  Our Writer’s Camp and Online Self Fulfilled delegates and Event Full subscribers are using the 7Ps successfully right now at Amazon.com and in numerous micro businesses.

Learn how to earn extra income by combining the 7Ps in an events business that is supported by self publishing and writing to sell.

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to over 400 delegates in Quito, Ecuador

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to a dozen delegates at our farm office in North Carolina.

Merri and I have been using the 7Ps for over 45 years.   Since May 1968 we have been paid to travel and live exactly where we have wanted to be… because we have known how to write to sell and monetize the publishing success with events, seminars, courses and tours.

The combination of self publishing working hand in hand with an events business has allowed us to visit and to live anywhere in the world we have desired.   Many of our courses delegates are using the 7Ps to enjoy great profits and lifestyle as well.

One reader sent me this note:

“Gary,  I participated in a Home Party last week and sold $253 worth of Ecuador goods that I brought back on my trip there last November.  That makes a total of approx. $450 in random sales so far which comes real close to paying for my airline ticket.  I still have a nice inventory, so will work on selling the rest.” 

This reader is using an events based business to generate income that pays for Ecuador travel.

Our online course “Event – Full Business” shows how to start small and gradually build a larger events business (if that is your desire) as we have done.

There are many fringe benefits to an events business. For example almost all of our global travel has been tax deductible for all these years.

The pay has certainly not been bad either.  One event earned  $142,260 in three days.  In another instance we earned over $135,000 in two days.  Once our earnings exceeded $200,000 in just three days.  More often we bring in $10,000 for a weekend’s work.

Yet the income has been a small part of this adventure.  The expanded horizons… the people we have met… the adventures we have shared… the tens of thousands of delegates we have enjoyed and hopefully helped…. the poor we have served… the freedom we have felt… to be able to go where we desire and come home, when we desire, with more than when we left.

Event Full Business- How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business.

We have conducted seminars or events or spoken at them in… (alphabetical order)  Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, England, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary (before the Iron Curtain came down), Indonesia, Isle of Man, Jamaica, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nevis, Panama, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Scotland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and at one time or another most of the United States and even more.

There is a possibility that  Merri and I know more about conducting events than 99.9% of the people in the world.

We share what we know about events in our emailed correspondence course:  “Event – Full Business”.

Self publishing and events go hand in hand.  Writing to sell can build an events business and events can sell self published books, reports and courses.

Here are the initial lessons you receive.

#1: How to earn millions from seminars, courses and tours. See how we have earned as much as $200,000 for three days’ work. (Once $135,000 in two days.)

#2: How to build a seminar business. See the one day Washington-Atlanta-San Francisco system that helped our courses evolve and how to use this approach to help your teaching grow.

#3: When and when not to use other speakers. Seminars for speakers… a way to get it all out as your bank accounts gets it all in.

#4: How to use other speakers. Gain the key to the room and the people within. Why the golden pen is mightier than a glib tongue, the sword and the overloaded brain.

#5: Dealing with hotels/locations. Why the marketing does not talk to catering which will not communicate with accounting and the mess this could mean for you. How to choose… arrange and survive the hotel. Forget the $11,314 coffee bill… for swill.

#6: Scheduling seminars. Magic dates and times for marketing… how far in advance to market and seminar death dates to avoid.

#7: Creating a back end business. How Merri made $12,936 dollars at a seminar in 37 minutes by just standing still.

#8: Three types of courses… delegate driven… speaker driven… third party driven.

#9: The importance of strategic partnerships for added wealth.

#10: How to market seminars, courses & tours.

#11: How to build a List.

#12: Alternative seminar and course location options.

#13: The benefits of both big seminars and small courses.

#14: How to survive the dreaded problems: What to do when enrollments are low. Handling the heckler, the takeover and the cell phone. When the hotel fails. Surviving speaker no shows and all of those types of things!

#15: How to enhance your other businesses with seminars.

Event – Full Business – How to have a seminar and tour business sells for $349, but in this special offer you receive both fully guaranteed online courses “Event – Full Business” and “Self Fulfilled” for only $299 and save $349.

Self Fulfilled-How to be A Self Publisher.  There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  You saw three above.

The course includes 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How you can start with a very small amount of money and eventually work only four hours a day (if you are operating full-time).

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* Plus much, much more that I don’t have space for here!

* How to use the internet to publish

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

To help you start, I have created a special offer… our course on how to be a self publisher, our course on how to use the internet and a website in your business  and six bonuses for you.

Bonus #1: Get the 50 minute Video Workshop worth $99 “How to Start Your Own Internet Business” presented by our webmaster David Cross,

Bonus #2: Get FREE, the $299 online course “The Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have an Internet Business”.  To read more  about this course click here.

Bonus #3: Our Super Thinking Workshop in an MP3 file so you can listen on your computer, burn a disk or listen on you Ipod or in your car. This workshop is a $199 value.

Bonus #4: A special report only available to those who enroll in “Self Fulfilled” entitled  “Three Secrets for Creating Publishing Ideas”.

Bonus #5:  We have created a special program so you can enjoy both our guaranteed online courses “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” and “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business”.  “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business” has been offered regularly at $349.

When you order “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” at the regular price of $299 you receive all five bonuses at no extra cost. You save $946 total.

Self Fulfilled Special $299

GUARANTEED. We’ll Accept All the Risk!

We completely guarantee the program.

Order Self Publishing: Your Complete Business Plan for becoming a self publisher and take a full 30 days to put it through its paces. That way you can follow my simple process and start seeing the results for yourself.

If you’re not completely convinced that this information can help you develop income through writing to sell—all you have to do is let us know and  you’ll receive a complete refund of every penny of your investment.

Fair enough?

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than we ever imagined possible.  We want to share our knowledge and secrets with anyone who has a desire to experience this way of life.

Whether you are an engineer, doctor, housewife, business owner, or retiree… self-publishing offers a way to create income by turning your passion into profit.

Don’t miss this special opportunity.  Order Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher today if you want to cash in on the satisfying, profitable and exciting lifestyle that publishing can bring despite and in fact because of trouble in the world.

Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher Special $299

 

(1) Reverse Engineering Profits

Avoid Lines – Three Stock Market Concerns


Seek Value in investing and business.  Avoid lines.  Lines reveal excessive current demand.  Excessive current demand reduces value.

traffic-shots

Lines of Traffic.

One major factor in choosing our homes in Ecuador, in Florida and North Carolina is lack of traffic.  We look seriously at this factor in our investing and business as well.  We want to begin with good value before everyone else is there.  We get out when the lines are formed.  Our old life in London certainly taught us a lot!

This leads to three concerns about the US stock market.

First, look at the Dow Jones average, up and up and up.  Lines are formed.

Second, remember the importance of seven year cycles.  Almost every philosophy that reflects on existence notes the importance of seven year cycles.  The sabbatical represents a time of rest, a turning point, a change or shift.

In the 1800s French economist, Clement Juglar, noted the idea of the seven year economic cycles (7-11 years actually) popular in the 1800s.  Joseph Schumpeter, another great economist, broke those cycles into four stages: expansion, crisis, recession and recovery.

When I look at the Dow and think 2000, 2007 and 2014, I think about the impact of this being the seventh year and time for a break.

www.finance.yahoo.com

Image Dow Jones Industrial Average chart from www.yahoo.finance.com    (Click on image to enlarge)

Third, we have another subprime loan bubble ready to burst.

One (of many) reasons for the 2007 crash was a burst subprime home loan bubble.  The bubble was created when banks bundled their home loans and sold them on the stock market.  Since the banks were not keeping the loans they did not care if they were good or not.  Banks misrepresented the quality of the loans and investors in the market took the loss.

Banks have paid out over 100 billion in fines and the chart below from the Economist article shows how many big banks were involved.

economist article image

The Next Bubble to Burst

Next to a home what could be more important to an American?   Their car!  The new bubble is subprime car loans.  As with subprime home loans, the banks that make the loans do not keep them. The loans are bundled and passed onto stock market investors.

NYT Image

Image from New York Times auto subprime bubble article

The New York Times article “In a Subprime Bubble for Used Cars, Borrowers Pay Sky-High Rates” tells how millions of Americans with shoddy credit are easily getting loans from used car dealers.   Some of these dealers do not care if the loan can be repaid and even provide false information.

Why would lenders be so careless?  The article explains when it says:  The explosive growth is being driven by some of the same dynamics that were at work in subprime mortgages.  A wave of money is pouring into subprime autos, as the high rates and steady profits of the loans attract investors.  Just as Wall Street stoked the boom in mortgages, some of the nation’s biggest banks and private equity firms are feeding the growth in subprime auto loans by investing in lenders and making money available for loans.

And, like subprime mortgages before the financial crisis, many subprime auto loans are bundled into complex bonds and sold as securities by banks to insurance companies, mutual funds and public pension funds — a process that creates ever-greater demand for loans.

Officials at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have expressed concerns that the banks are amassing too many risky auto loans.   The agency issued a report that pointed out the increasingly lax terms and growing risks.

One credit rating firm says there are nearly $150 billion worth of these sub prime loans.

“It appears that investors have not learned the lessons of Lehman Brothers and continue to chase risky subprime-backed bonds,” said Mark T. Williams, a former bank examiner with the Federal Reserve.

Seek value.  Don’t line up with other investors and make the popular investment or business idea.

One Easy Way to Seek Good Value Markets and Equities

I use a seven step global value review process  that begins with a major market and emerging market value analysis by Keppler Asset Management.

We follow this analysis by our friend, Michael Keppler, because he continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.

From this, Keppler develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategies. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

He, in my opinion, is one of the best market statisticians in the world. Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.

The next step is I track the investments made by the funds managed by State Street Global Advisors that track Keppler’s analysis.

Here is the latest investment breakdown of the State Street Global Advantage Major Market fund.

State Street Major Market Fund

I use the investment breakdown as a bellwether and compare ETFs, mutual funds or shares that fit my financial needs.

In this way my investing is directed by value instead of fashion and popular trends.

Making money in a micro business is easy.  Keeping what you earn and save not so simple.  Both the making and the keeping are easier when you avoid lines and seek value instead.

Learn how to seek value, cut losses and take profits with a magic calculator

Learn how to Borrow Low & Deposit High

Gary

Enjoy the two for one offer that ends this week.  Learn how to earn with self publishing at a Writer’s Camp.  Learn how to and where to invest at the Montreal International Investing seminar.

Global Earnings Seminar

Regain Real Security

There is a path to true security.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.  Almost!

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.  Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?  Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.  This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

This is why I am making a special three day “Let’s get our lives back offer”.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.   This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are most likely to make good investment, business and lifestyle decisions.

Without comfort, no matter how much money a person has changes are, they’ll eventually lose it or kill themselves with stress from worry.

There is a way to have the perfect form of financial security.  Let’s call it the perfect pension.  To help understand how to build an unshakable economic platform, here is Part One of the report, The Pruppie Factor.

The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits.

“May you live in interesting times”.  That’s a Chinese curse that seems to have been cast on our modern world.  We can enjoy comfort and profits in the year ahead despite this fact.

Become a Pruppie.  Integrate your earning with your investing and enjoy peak living, everlasting wealth and natural health with PIEC Investing in the year ahead.

Before we look at what PIEC means, let’s delve into Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies expect everything to expand.  They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can.  Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.  They also engage in activity that they love that would sustain them in case society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society should fail.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.  Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Hope springs eternal and it should.  One of the key themes in my first book, Passport to International Profit, (published in the 1970s) was “The Sun Always Shines Somewhere”.  This thought has been in and remains a foundation of everything I do.

Sometimes this sunshine is hard to see because the press always focuses on doom and gloom.  Current news often makes the world seem about to end.  We cannot blame the press. Bad news sells.  The majority seem to want to worry instead of learn about all that’s good.  This does not make doom and gloom right.  This is why the majority are also the rich portion of the population, but bad news is an economic fact for the press.

Yet despite all the negative headlines, we have lived through the Cold War and MAD, Y2K, GridX II, the Peak Oil Crisis, the recession of the 1970s, 1980s 2007, etc. etc. etc.  Chicken Little is always out there, selling the falling sky.  Don’t buy into this story!

History suggests that there will always be opportunity.  The sun always shines somewhere.

Brexit, global warming and the election of Donald trump as President of the United States are 2016 examples of how the press gravitates to negative news.  These three events may be bad news or not.  The future will tell, but they are examples of how the media focuses on tiny parts of our infinite existence.  They can make anything and just about everything seem negative.  This can blind us to the positive realities ahead, if we let it.  Don’t.  Expect that the world will remain standing and look for opportunity instead!

Our wealth and economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  We are part of a growing global population.  New technology makes more people, as a whole, more productive every day.  The world has increasingly larger markets creating more supply in increasingly efficient ways.

This reality increases everyone’s wealth.  Yes there is a lot of bad news in many places.  There is inequality.  There is crime.  There is war and hate and injustice.   Despite these negatives there is even more that is positive.  Opportunity grows.

Pruppies tap into and use every bit of the good news they can.  They have a plan B if everything goes wrong, but Plan B is based on something a Pruppie wants to do we love, not just a shelter from bad news.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate earning and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Imagine this example of Pruppism.  The Tiffany lamp casts an amber glow, rich, ivory and warm in the grey gloom of early dusk.  The gold knobbed mahogany desk, its deep patina waxed and smooth, shines with reflections of ancient leather Chesterfields stuffed full, but rumpled with age and of maritime shots that hang in brass frames on the wall. The room speaks of settled tradition, the kind that might never end.  But thoughts instead are on the demise of the business that has supported this room.

The late Jim Slater of Slater Walker, a British industrial conglomerate turned bank in the 1970s was in that room.  I recall his bank’s collapse well as I was living in Hong Kong and Slater Walker was a huge going concern in what was a British colony in those days.  The Slater Walker crash was big news that unsettled the entire British banking system at the time.

Slater, the founder, had been a really high roller, using every modern banking tactic available including buying many assets with cheap loans.  Then in the mid 1970s banking crisis interest rates skyrocketed and his bank was unable to refinance its debt.  The company failed and Slater had to resign.  Numerous charges were brought against him and he spent considerable time defending what he had done.

In the end he was only fined a nominal sum but despite this, his banking career was well and truly dead.

However he had already moved on.

He wrote about this in his autobiography, “Return To Go”.  He had always had a hobby making puppet shows and telling stories to his children, so instead of banking, he turned his passion into profit and wrote some children’s books.  His first effort sold a respectable 35,000 copies.  His next a monster series for younger children, became a huge hit.

He had also maintained a hobby of salmon fishing so again turned his passion into profit by creating a business that bought up fishing rights and resold them as time-shares.  He had quite a success.

Some day a catastrophe beyond our control could redirect the course of our lives.  We might lose a job, learn that our pension won’t pay or that our dollars won’t buy as much as they must.

Though Jim Slater was a banker, outside economic forces beyond his control caused his business disaster.  Yet he had options because he had been doing things he loved that were not related to his banking, but could become useful income generators in difficult time.

I do not know if Slater understood Pruppism but that’s what he was practicing.

Pruppism is a positive realism based on the knowledge that much of our lives are directed by events that we do not know or expect and could not change them even if we did.  There is always something we do not know and that’s okay.

Years ago I was speaking at an investing seminar in Marbella Spain.  One of the speakers was a brilliant strategist, Johan Peter Paludan, of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.  This institute has a large interdisciplinary staff with expertise in economics, political science, ethnography, psychology, engineering, PR and sociology.  They identify and analyze global trends that influence the future.  Paludan was speaking of these trends and answering questions that delegates had about the world’s economic future.

One delegate asked what to do if there was a global nuclear exchange.  Paludan replied that the results of some events are so unpredictable that it is not worth trying to plan for them.

This thought has stuck with me for decades because it helped me realize that no matter how cautious, how defensive and careful we are, there are events that we cannot even imagine that can turn our lives upside down, for the good or bad.  With this in mind my wife Merri and I have created a lifestyle where we turn our passions into profit but in a way that whatever happens we are likely to be in a position to spot the positive and the opportunity.

A PIEC Experience

Pruppies gain the benefits of PIEC wealth.  PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  PIEC income and wealth come from doing what you do for love, rather than just the money.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income.  They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn.  They hope, that maybe the savings will bring, sometime in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

Pruppies reverse the priorities.  Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now.  Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way.  They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

If economic circumstances tie them to an existing income effort, they create hobbies that are income producers of the future.

For example, if a Pruppie loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he or she will create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet.  But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed.  He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice.  So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses.  Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

Pruppies combine money with time, energy and desires.  They generate income doing something desired.  Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

#1: Do What You Love!

The reason PIECs work well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Effort, determination and tenacity are wealth building attributes that cannot fail.  Yet Pruppism does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100.  Smart Pruppies start small and gradually expand into their passion.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life.  Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors.  So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where I developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air.  Now I live in nature so after I finish the writing or talking, I can walk in the woods or take my axe and chop firewood or something physical.  I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense.

We built a series of cabins in the wild that bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift. Now we have been at this for nearly two decades and we are far from finished.  But while doing what we love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retired folks who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream.  This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems.  We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.  What do we sincerely want?

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth.  Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm.  How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams?  The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must take the third step and become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit.  We always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas.

Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to keep adding new opportunities into our lives.  Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

#2: Do what you love, but also be of service.  Do something for others that is meaningful and important to you.

We all have a purpose in life and when we are filling it, we feel fulfilled.  Wealth and fulfillment is the goal.  Fulfillment is important because of the law of diminishing returns.  A 2008 study that analyzed Gallup surveys of 450,000 Americans suggested that day-to-day contentment improves until income hits around $75,000 per annum.  After that, more money just brings more stuff, with far less gain in happiness.  Income beyond $75,000 does not do much for a person’s daily mood.

This is a pretty general study and regional differences in costs, inflation and life circumstances will create many fluctuations from this norm, but the point is when money is the main goal, the better you get, the harder it will be to gain satisfaction.

Giving, on the other hand, never has limitations, especially when the giving helps complete a purpose that is part of our destiny.

This is true in business and investing.  A study of investors for example found that investors with socially responsible ideals gained the best returns.  A dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments and the added stick-to-it-ness helps increase profits.

The financial giant State Street Corporation’s Center for Applied Research did an 18 month study of 7,000 investors to get a better understanding of the role incentives play in making investment decisions.  Based on this study a new measure of investment performance called “Phi” was created.  Portfolios were previous rated by their Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Phi is the newest measure of performance.

Alpha measures an investment’s performance against a market index.  If the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 10 percent and a mutual fund is up 15 percent, for example, that 5 percentage point difference is alpha.

Beta is the return of any given market.  And charting beta is what a passive index fund does.  Comparing different indexes’ beta — say domestic equities and international bonds — helps investors in deciding how to allocate their investments.

Gamma is a measure of the impact on returns of more intelligent financial planning decisions.  A Gamma rating quantifies the additional value that can be achieved by optimal asset allocation, a dynamic withdrawal strategy, incorporating guaranteed income products (i.e., annuities), tax-efficient decisions, and liability-relative asset allocation optimization.

What phi aims to add is a way for investors to quantify how their motivations — or those of the people managing their money — will affect long-term investment returns.

The study examined what motivates a person to invest — or not and found that main investment motivations are market-based motives, the most frequent and powerful being fear in the market.  Both market motivations, the prospect of profit and the fear of loss, can have a negative effect on long-term performance.

A deep sense of purpose is what causes a high phi score.  A high phi factor is not about outperforming markets or peers, and it’s not an asset-gathering measure of performance.  Pi performance is defined as sustainable investing with a deeper sense of purpose.

People who invested with socially responsible ideals did best in the study.  The dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments.

The study helped define three aspects of investing that are generally ignored, purpose, habits and incentives.

Purpose.  Purpose requires some soul-searching questions about what we each want our life to be.  This purpose is more important than the investment goal.  The purpose of the money we have becomes more important than the amount in the portfolio.

Habits.  Habits come next because we need to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The marketplace does all it can to distract us from our goals.  There is an endless stream of news, rumor, conjecture, facts figures, ideas and tactics generated by every part of every stock market aimed at getting us to act in ways that benefit the agenda of others.

Habits help us avoid being distracted from what we are meant and want to do.  The muffle the noise of Madison Avenue, the spin from Washington DC and the hidden agendas of big business.

Incentive.  Changing incentives to accomplish a purpose instead of a numerical (percentage or profit) goal helps us adopt better behavior.  We react to accomplishing our meaningful purpose instead of drama created by media as well as manipulation and short term whims in markets.

The study showed that changing incentives in this way improved phi when they had a meaningful impact on a person’s investment strategy.

The study found these facts: Every one-point increase in people’s orientation toward investment goals with a purpose — and the scale is 0 to 3 — equated to 42 percent greater odds that the investors know what they are paying in fees, 37 percent greater odds that investors are not rejecting their financial adviser, 38 percent greater odds that the people consider investing in socially responsible investments and 79 percent greater odds that investors will trade less frequently, the research found.

As in so many others cases, two of the most important factors of success are keeping costs and trading activity low.  These are among the most powerful ways to increase wealth.  Having greater fulfillment as well as more wealth is a bonus that Pruppies call “Everlasting Wealth”.

Figure out what is really important in life for you and then find ways to invest in that purpose.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

Learn to focus your investments using purpose as the most important investment goal.  The purpose of money becomes more important than the amount.

Learn how to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The market will do all it can to distract us from our goals.  Understand that many banks, brokers, the media, the government and commerce all have agendas to take our money, not make more for us.   Good wealth habits and routines protect us from this.

#3: Integrate your earning and investing. 

Long term success in business and investing are determined by control and comfort.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are serving a valuable purpose, the best we can, regardless of how events unfold.

Real comfort helps maintain determination, dedication and enthusiasm, all among the most vital parts in the process of succeeding in investing and business.

Our own business increases comfort because a business is simply an investment that gives us more control due to the addition of our own time and energy. 

A Personal Income Earning Corridor (PIEC) begin with a main income generator that we control.  For some this is a job with a salary.  For others it is a pension. For many it is their own business.

Integration of business and investing is important because investments are not always good income generators.

Years ago I managed an investment portfolio for Canada’s largest private investment management firm.  One day, during lunch with the president of the firm, we discussed the difficulties of professional fund management.  He explained that one of his biggest problems was the excessive expectation of customers.

“I have a retired client who has a million dollars”, he said.  “The client wants $90,000 a year to live on.  In a good year, we might earn 11%.  The client can take 9%. Our fee is 1% and the client’s fund increase by 1%.  In a bad year, we might earn 5%. The client takes 9%.  Our fee is 1% and the client’s funds drop by $50,000.  In the next year the client has even less to work with so a withdrawal of $90,000 may be more than 9% of the portfolio.  The client tends to take even more in good years, but never reduces the demand in bad years.”

The number one golden rule of investing is that there is always something we do not know.  Risk is always our partner.  When we invest, there is always potential that will negatively affect our financial welfare.  Our investments might rise or fall because of market conditions (market risk).  Corporate decisions, such as whether to expand into a new area of business or merge with another company, can affect the value of our investments (business risk).  If we own an international investment, events within that country can affect our investment.  There is both political and currency risk.  There is liquidity risk because we may need to draw on an investment at a time when it price is low.

Plus there are broken promises.

We live in an era of broken promises.  Defaults could ruin most average retirees and even investors.

A look at government, social and currency breakdown at its worst can help us see the problem.  Germany is an example when it borrowed heavily to pay WWI costs.  Such borrowing almost always leads to currency and social erosion and this did then.  Right after the war there was some stability, before government spending began to run wild.  By 1923, it reached the worst in history.  This caused prices to sometimes double in hours. In Germany by late 1923 it took 200 billion marks to buy a loaf of bread.

Hard-working people with modest spending habits could not even buy a postage stamp with their life savings.  All debt was wiped out but so too were all savings.

Salaries were paid three times a day yet shops were empty.  Food riots raged. Businesses closed down, unemployment soared.  The economy collapsed.

Anyone on a fixed income was destitute.  They sold everything just to buy food.

Small businesses however survived because they could hold material things such as clothing, food, anything people could consume. 

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

This is a bigger problem then it may seem because it creates an even bigger broken promise concerning the US dollar.

Medicare and Social Security already account for 41% of federal spending.  That was the expenditure last year.  This is not a static problem.  Each year that percentage is growing worse.  This creates a special risk for the dollar because Social Security’s reserves are not really assets at all.  The purported assets are simply IOUs from the US government.

Social Security assets are a liability of the government, so eventually the money comes from the same place as all other government expenditure, taxes or federal debt.  This means that if Social Security has to sell an asset, then the government, already overburdened by debt, will have to borrow the money from somewhere else.

If the Fed cannot raise enough money to pay Social Security only two options are left, devalue the greenback or don’t pay.

When Social Security was established in 1935, the President and Congress imposed taxes to pay the promised benefits. Thirty years later politics had changed.  When Medicare was established in 1965, the government took credit for the popular health coverage but left the payment problem for future generations.

President Nixon and Congress also enjoyed the popularity of they increased Social Security benefits  in the 1970s but left future generations the bill.

The public has not been fooled.  A survey in 1964 found that 77% of the population answered yes to the question “Do you trust the government to do the right thing “just about always” or “most of the time”.  Only 19% answered yes in 2015 according to Pew Research.

Yet what can individuals do other than what we have, voting in new administrations?

Voters attempted to create change in 2008 with a new administration.  The election process and result of 2016 suggests they were no pleased with the results. 2017 and beyond may be “interesting” years.

There should be little wonder that Americans have stopped trusting politicians who promise benefits to get and remain elected but leave the burdens of paying for the promises to pile up waiting to sink the next administration.

This problem has grown so large that in 2011 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit.”

In 2014 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress that more work must be done “to put fiscal policy on a sustainable course.”

If the government does not resolve this problem soon, then the world of lenders will.  If the US has to raise interest rates to continue attracting loans, a downward spiral will grow.  Higher rates create greater debt and greater debt demands higher interest payments. The costs will be catastrophic.  As investors flee US bonds and T-Bills for safer investment, the US dollar will lose purchasing power.

Social Security, if paid and even if paid in the same amounts as before, will buy less.  If Medicare stops working then all that’s left for backup is Obamacare and the private insurers in the plan.

This is another broken promise.  When United Health Group, the nation’s largest health insurer, recently announced that it was pulling out of Obamacare insurance the public learned that it will face higher premiums.  Many will need to choose a new plan, change doctors and hospitals as well.  United Health is not the first or only insurer to quit. A dozen nonprofit health insurance cooperatives shut down just last year.  The giants Aetna and Blue Cross Blue Shield are even considering a drop out.

If Social Security and health care promises are broken that just leaves our pensions. Right?

Yet if we look at the Pensionrights.org website we see hundreds of corporations that have reduced pension benefits including the likes of Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Allstate Corp., Coca Cola, Boeing, Caterpillar, Kraft Foods, Hewlett Packard, Fedex GM and GE to name a few of over a hundred.

This problem is not limited to corporate pension.  An Economic Budget Issue Brief issued to Congress from the CBO (Congressional Budget office”) says:

“By any measure, nearly all state and local pension plans are underfunded, which means that the value of the plans’ assets is less than their accrued pension liabilities for current workers and retirees” CBO.

The report shows that even five years ago the short fall of State and Local Pensions was over 3 trillion dollars, more than all other state and local debt

That leaves the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) as a safety net.  In the 2015 PBGC’s annual report the Director’s message says:  “One of the most important functions of PBGC is assuming responsibility for pension plans when their sponsors can no longer keep them going.  We insure the benefits of more than 40 million workers and retirees.  Currently, we pay more than 800,000 people each month.  An additional 585,000 workers are scheduled to receive benefits from PBGC when they retire.”

But if you look at the first paragraph of the Financial Report in that annual report you see:

“PBGC’s combined financial position decreased by $14,577 million, increasing the Corporation’s combined deficit (net position) to $76,349 million as of September 30, 2015 an all time record high from  $61,772 million as of September 30, 2014”.

Every step along the way we see shortfalls, debt with little hope of repayment and an economic overhang that will eventually create broken promises at every level from the pensions, healthcare, Social Security and most from a falling US dollar.

These facts will ruin the life styles of millions, but not all.

In short, there is risk in even the safest investments and there is a possibility that a negative financial outcome might occur.

This is why multi dimensional business opportunities make sense.  You can profit from expanding your utility.  The US currency may fall but your business can offer valuable, needed services or products that will be worth more than gold.

You can gain from having a source of income in a place where you have the best chances of control.  This is why for centuries… small business have had a home upstairs and business below, so the owner could control their business.

Those who profit most in changing times are those who add new dimensions to old time proven ways.  Modern technology offers many exciting ways to create multi dimensional profit and can earn income at home.

When you have your own business, you reduce the need to place excessive demands on your savings and you reduce the risks of broken promises especially when your have a multi dimensional business with multiple streams of income.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate multiple streams of income and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Merri and I aim to create multi dimensional opportunity wherever we live.

In Florida we bought a house and an orange grove next door.  Then we added a rental unit.

In North Carolina we bought a farm, then we added a seminar center, rental units and a trout raising business.

Products and services of essentials, food, clothing, shelter, protection and good health are the real golden assets in the worst times.

Imagine the scenario where our entire structure melts down.  “See the man who has just come in to get some milk for his family.  He stares at the rows for canned milk.  They were empty. Cleaned out.  He closes his eyes.  The world spins.  He snaps his eyes open and checked the rows again.  They are still empty.  He feels oddly betrayed.  Grocery stores are the supports of life.  When you need something you come here.  This is a fact of life in today’s world.  How can he not take this for granted.

“He rushes to the dairy case.  That’s empty too.  He runs to other shelves and sees shoppers piling up food, any food they can grab, throwing entire rows into their carts.  He is pushed and shoved in a mad rush to take any remaining food.

“The man speeds off to the nearest Dollar Store but finds the parking lot filled, lines waiting just to get in the door.”

Just one disruption in the supply line and in a day, the stores were empty. Our modern world is so intricately connected and stores operate on a just-in-time inventory control system.  When you buy anything a computer orders more and it comes next shipment, next day. One glitch in this complex system, one short break and the shelves rapidly go empty.  The barer the shelves, the faster everything goes.

Yesterday everything had been normal. Suddenly there was no milk anywhere.

The man’s tale is imaginary, but the fabric behind it is not, as the real story below shows.

In September and November of 2016, the Colonial pipeline that supplies millions of people with gasoline was shut down.

In November, one simple error caused the disruption.  A track hoe digging for utilities accidentally struck the pipeline, ignited gasoline and caused an explosion.

In September there was a leak (over a quarter million gallons of gas) that caused the disruption.  While shut down, so many people rushed to the gas station to fill up that it created a panic and shortage.

I spoke with the owner of the local gas station we use. He said people were lining up to fill their cars, gas cans and even large tanks in pickups.  He had to limit sales.

A shortage of just about any essential quickly creates panic.  In the pipeline disruptions motorists running to gas stations deviated from their normal consumption habits at the pump and quickly exhausted existing supplies.

There was still plenty of gasoline, but the ability to transport the product to North Carolina (and four other states) was restricted.  Loss of common sense, civility and safety flew out the window within hours.

This was despite the good news that there are two pipes that run side-by-side.  Only one was ruptured, so the disruption was not as bad as it could be.

The September leak, just one small problem in just one pipeline led to days of dry pumps and higher gas prices in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas while repairs were made.

Five states are so dependent on just two side by side  pipelines that their shutdown can create panic for millions of people in under one day.

Merri and I make each of our houses multi dimensional…a home and a source of income from some essential product.

Governments are going further into debt globally.  This creates serious debt and economic problems everywhere.  These burdens mean that governments and societies lose their ability to keep their promises.  Multi dimensional earnings can help overcome the risks these conditions create.

Our website has long shared the idea of multi dimensional business, investing and living.  We have looked at the idea of living as a landlord or the idea of multi dimensional writing and farming or Ecuador farming with B&B, plus Ecuador B&Bs on the beach or in the Amazon to name a few.

Multi dimensional opportunity earns in numerous ways.

Merri and I have always created multi dimensional opportunity in our global travels.  We have united self publishing, seminars, tours, real estate, teaching, currencies, investing and real estate to enhance our income and living.  For example in London we converted a house into an office and bedroom time share. We found special currency deals that helped.

I came across this (one of my first) multi dimensional opportunities when I wanted to finance a house purchase in London.  My business plan was to create a small office-apartment complex.  I would live in part of the house, have an office in part that I would share with a number of my readers.  The deal was aimed at helping overseas businesses people have an office and a place to stay when they were in London.  I set up a club something like a timeshare.  Not quite a timeshare but close enough.

My track record with the bank was good and I had always repaid loans.  Yet the policy at that bank was “timeshares are no-nos”.  I could almost see the glaze come over my bank manager’s eyes as I explained the project.  It was the look that said “No matter what you say, the answer will be NO”.  Once a manager thinks that what you want is against company policy, it is better to do something realistic like climb Mount Everest on a lunch break.  I come from a family of modest means and had no relatives or friends with the cash to start the deal so my alternative was to find overseas investors.

After making the necessary polite motions with my banker and letting him do likewise, I thanked him for his time and was preparing to leave.

Then he said, “By the way let me show you our new American Express Gold Card plan”.  The bank had just started to offer credit cards and they came with a 7,500 pound unsecured overdraft.  He told me that overseas investors could have these as well as local investors and customers.

Overdrafts are a peculiarly British line of credit that allows you to borrow up to the limit of the overdraft without any regular payment plan.  The banker sort of expects to see the amount borrowed rise and fall.  The borrower just pays interest on whatever amount is owed and on occasion the bank reviews the overdraft with you.

At that time one pound equaled about 2.2 dollars so this meant that everyone who obtained this credit card received a $16,500 dollar unsecured line of credit. $15,000 was the amount I was charging each member who joined my London office-apartment club!  I immediately saw how to use this to attract overseas investors.

I wanted 50 members at $15,000 each which was double the $375,000 I needed to buy and develop the property. I saw how to turn my customers into my overseas investors.

My head was spinning as I left the bank.  The bank would not give me a $375,000 loan secured by property.  Yet they would lend my buyers of the club the full price of membership on an unsecured basis.  All I needed was get half my buyers right now on a nothing down pre -purchase deal.  This is exactly what I did.  My customers became my overseas investors.

I hustled out, called my customers and offered them this deal they could not refuse.  “Join our club now and you get an American Express gold card.  The bank will lend you the money unsecured for your club membership.  Pay it back when you can.” 

That was a deal that few overseas investors could refuse.

This was a much better deal for me than borrowing the money from overseas investors to start.  The original 25 sales were financed by the bank.  My customers had to pay the money back, not me.

My clients loved me for this deal.  The British pound collapsed shortly after.  That 7,500 loan that created over $15,000 became much less expensive…. barely $10,000.  Those who borrowed made about $5,000 (33%) forex profit on the loan as well as the good real estate deal.

They made such a profit on the currency change I wrote a report about it and earned additional income from the report sales.

In that real example, I used my writing to enhance a real estate deal.  The real estate helped me promote my seminars and sell a report plus I ended up with a income and a wonderful central London house to live in.

There are many multi dimensional real estate opportunities, land that offers a low stress, healthy home, farm income and other profit potential all at the same time.  Merri and I sponsored many Ecuador real estate tours to help readers buy multi dimensional real estate like Ecuador beach farms that provide rentals and farm income.

When investing and business are balanced the building of wealth becomes a more fulfilling, enjoyable process of service.  Great financial rewards are an extra benefit rather than ultimate goals.  Worries about money become less dominant and we gain an inherent power because we want to work harder and longer.  We don’t need to search (and spend) so much for fulfillment and are more likely to excel financially.

Three Layer Financial Plan

Having our own business allows us to operate at peak performance and create a PIEC (Personal Income Earning Corridor).  Having a PIEC business does not mean you should put all your money in just your own business (though at times you may).  Diversification is always good.

PIEC portfolios come in three layers, first the personal business, then a layer of very safe investments over a third, much smaller layer of speculative deals.

The majority of PIEC diversification beyond our business should be in stodgy, liquid investments such as utilities, CDs, bonds and good value equities.

I prefer Country Index ETFs that provide diversification into entire equity markets.  These investments might pay little in the short term, but are safe and they are highly liquid at a known price.  The low return on these investments is acceptable because they support your PIEC business which maximizes profits and adds comfort like few other investments can.

These very safe investments act as reserves if your business hits a sticky patch and can provide ready finance if sudden business opportunities arise.  They also don’t take up much time in research, accounting, watching the market, etc. so you can devote your energy doing what you love (your business).

However, if you genuinely love researching and tracking the market and have the mentality, capital and experience for it, just being an investor can be a wonderful PIEC business in itself.

The third layer of diversification can be speculative because modern portfolio theory suggests that safe investments are enhanced and made safer by adding a small amount of higher risk deals.  This also allows us to fulfill any casino mentality we might have left if having our own business is not enough.

PIEC investing makes it easier to create and keep wealth.  It enhances our lifestyles now, because it lets us make money being who we really are.  It makes life more fulfilling and fun.

Integrating investing and business reduces the risks of placing excessive demands on your savings, especially if we have an anchor of value.

#4: Find your Anchor of Value.

Find your passion.  Knowing ourselves also helps begin a business with a most powerful business tool I call the Golden Rule of Simplicity.  This rule says there are millions of people just like us.  When we truly see ourselves we look into a mirror that reflects an entire market who feel and desire just as we do.  This is a simple rule yet gives us a finely tuned market research system which shows us how to get create our product, get in touch with our market, deliver the product or service and surrounds us with like minded souls.

Self-knowledge is also essential for comfort and comfort is a vital part of everlasting wealth.  When investors are not comfortable, no profit is enough.  Uncomfortable investors have a never-ending thirst for more that cannot be quenched.  This indefatigable desire gums up the money making process.  Amounts don’t matter.  Even investors with incredible assets suffer this never-ending lust.  A well documented example is Bunker Hunt’s huge losses when he speculated in silver in the 1970s.  He had hundreds of millions yet speculated it all to make even more. When is hundreds of millions not enough?

Develop your investment rules.  Whatever your passion you will need to establish your method – the criteria you will use to select shares for your portfolio.

Whatever your preference you need to establish your key criteria.  Once you have your method working well, improvements come from experience and practice – learning from the successes and failures of each and every investment you make.  The quote “The harder I practice, the luckier I get” applies here.

Know when to sell – and when not to.  A key factor in effective portfolio management is to run profits and cut losses.  This is counter-intuitive for most people because it is natural to want to grab a profit and rather unpleasant to realize a loss.

If you run your profits they can become very big.  If you cut your losses they will always be relatively small.

To understand this approach better, let me ask a question.  What if I offered you a free Mercedes Benz?

You would probably say YES… but would be thinking… “What’s the catch?”  That’s good because we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch, much less a free new car.

Would an answer be harder if instead there was a choice, a FREE Mercedes or $4 million bucks (as in US dollars)?

Most would choose the cash.  Yet of course we would still be expecting a catch.  There is a penny to drop, some risk and the need to ignore the thundering herd and an absolute requirement of discipline.

Let me share a true story about how and why an investor in similar circumstances got the Mercedes and had the $4 million, but then lost it.

The story contains three valuable tips.

Once upon a time, 1981 to be exact, there was a recession. An economic and political mess arose across the land.  The story began with unemployment.  In 1981, the US Presidential election was over, the US economy was hurting and the new government and president were turning on the money printing machine.

This was a gloomy time, those early 1980s.  Really.  That was the worst recession since the great depression.

You often hear that the worst recession since the great depression was the great recession of 2007.  This is statistically wrong.  1982 was worse.

The times were dark and this story begins at the end of the 1980 Presidential election when the US economy was at its worst in 50 years and getting worse.

Our hero in the story thought the stock market would recover, despite the fact that everyone thought everything was bleak and black.  He approached his bankers and asked to make some leveraged investments in the stock market.

His goal was to make enough profit to buy a brand new Mercedes Benz.

He opened the account and bought shares. He used those shares as collateral to leverage these investments with borrowed Japanese yen.

His timing was lucky.  The stock market rose quickly.  The Japanese yen collapsed.  His profits shot past his goal to buy the car.

The Fever

Bubble fever had set in so when the hero’s investment manager called with that great news, “You have enough for your new Mercedes“, the investor changed his mind.  “Let it roll,” the investor said.  “I want to make a million instead”.

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 1 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made a million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make two million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 2 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made two million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make three million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 3 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made three million bucks… really we should take some profits.

Let it roll,“… the investor said. “I have decided to make four million.”

As the portfolio was nearing four million in value the investment manager called.  “You have made almost four million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make four million and enough for a Mercedes.”

Shortly after the stock market corrected and the yen strengthened.  Profits fell so quickly the investor lost a million almost overnight.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost a million bucks… we had better take the profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market fell more and the yen grew stronger.  The profits fell even faster and the investor lost another million.

The investment manager called again.  “You have lost another million bucks… it’s time to take your profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market continued to plummet and the yen rose more.  The investor lost another million.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost three million bucks now…  You really should take the profits left.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

Finally as the market plunged more and profits faded away, the investor, having lost more than 3.5 million, closed his positions and had just enough profit left to buy his new car.

The Mercedez was black and shiny… a big 500 SEL model… king of the road.  The hero never enjoyed it much.

The moral of the story is that when you invest you need a plan, a discipline and to know when to holdem and when to foldem.

Remember that there are always three distinct options – buy, sell and hold.  We’ll look at how to decide when to buy, to sell and to hold later in this report.

Make sure you have some liquidity. You should always keep an eye on the “liquidity”, the ease with which you can sell all or part of your portfolio. If you are invested mainly in big cap stocks you will have little trouble going into cash if necessary.  However, if you have focused on smaller growth shares it makes sense to keep enough of your PIEC portfolio in large companies.

Select shares that can, if necessary, be turned into cash instantly and provide some comfort if the market as a whole turns ugly.

The potential gains on very large companies are not likely to be as high as those from smaller growth companies, but they can and often do well enough to give you a warm feeling.  Remember comfort counts!

Diversify – but not too much.  Your portfolio should contain no fewer than 10 shares, and you could put 10 percent of your money in each of your top selections.  Diversification is essential to reduce risk, but too much of it can hinder performance.

One of the best ways to have huge diversification in a small portfolio is with Country Index ETFs.  These ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

Most country index ETFs are invested in dozens, often a hundred or more, shares.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. With 72 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Australia.

A portfolio of a dozen country index ETFs represents diversification to hundreds of shares and a dozen currencies.

Diversifying into countries is safe because countries  generally do not go away, go bankrupt or become challenged by changing technology and altering markets.

Diversifying into countries is also relatively simple because, there is sufficient analysis of global markets so every country’s stock market can be compared and markets of best value included in a safe portfolio.

In addition these valuations do not change quickly.  In 2016 our portfolio of 20 good value country index ETFs had only one change, an addition of the Turkey Index ETF, in the year.

This low volume turnover gives us time to put our focus and energy on our business and the passion we love most.  Studies over decades suggests that this simple slow trading, highly diversified approach increases long term profits and increases safety.

Country ETFs provide massive, good value diversification at a really low cost.

Most passive country index ETFs have minimal cost structures.

#5: Keep costs down. 

High trading costs are one of the biggest drags on the performance of your PIEC portfolio.

There are numerous costs we need to keep an eye on.

Load fees. Avoid back-end and ongoing load. When looking at mutual funds, we’ll typically see them listed as A shares, B shares, and C shares.  All of these share classes have some type of load.  Avoid them.

A shares include a front-end, a guaranteed loss the minute you buy.  B shares come with a back-end load, a guaranteed reduction of any profit or expansion of any loss.  B shares typically charge 5% if they are sold within a specified time (normally five to seven years). There are also higher ongoing operating expenses for B shares. Fund companies typically charge up to an extra 1 percent a year for B share operating expenses.

C shares charge a penalty (usually 1 percent) if a sale is made within the first year.  They also carry higher expense ratios.

12b-1 fees are fees hard to see internal fees that cover a fund’s marketing and distribution costs. Funds can 12b-1 fees to pay brokers incentives for selling their funds. We should watch 12b-1 fees to make sure our broker is advising this fund because it is a good investment, not because he or she is receiving an incentive.

Management fees. We should make sure we get what we pay for, a good manager who makes us feel comfortable by helping build safety and steady performance in our portfolio.

Churning. Some funds and brokers churn, or buy and sell more than is really required.  History suggests that the less activity in a portfolio, the higher the return. Active management is one thing, but funds and brokers can increase their income with excessive transactions that do little or nothing to help us as investors.

Misallocation. Many investors are misallocated for the benefit of the bank or broker.  There are a remarkable array of unnecessarily risky, undiversified portfolios created to generate fees, and that have nothing to do with a client needs. Beware of complex and expensive portfolios full of bits and pieces that are hard to understand. Low transparency can often be associated with high costs.

Expense ratios in fund doesn’t cover all of the costs.  All investors, whether using funds or not face other costs such as brokerage and bid-ask spreads.

Bid-ask spreads for example are subject to market friction.  Markets are liquid because makers standing ready to buy or sell shares at all times.  They are paid by the difference between what they will buy and or sell for.

Shares that have less liquidity, ie.  Not many buyers and sellers, have bigger spreads between buying and selling prices.

Investing in widely held index funds and index ETFs can reduce this cost gap.  Such investments normally trade within fractions of a cent, keeping this this hidden expense in check.

Trading commissions make active trading an expensive way to increase profits. Trading costs sandbag our profits from the start.

Taxes need to also be considered. Buying and selling quickly increases fees and also creates short-term capital gains taxes.

Be careful of margin account as well. Most brokers will let us borrow money (for a fee) so we can leverage our investments.  This increases any profits or losses created, but also adds the interest cost of the leverage.

If we add up all the potential fees, redemption fees, brokerage fees, back-end load fees, management fees, inactivity fees, 12b-1 fees, transfer fees, minimum equity requirement fees, commissions, the cost of limit orders and consultancy costs, before investing.

We should know what all our fees are.

Passive Funds Usually Cost Less. Because reducing costs is a major factor in investment success, low cost passive funds that do not require high cost managers generally out perform managed funds in the long run.

Over a 15 or 25 year period very few managers outperform the respective benchmarks of sectors where they invest by a couple of percentage points.

It’s an easy way to game the stock market, and getting easier by the day.

In Part Two of this report we’ll look at the more speculative end of our PIEC portfolio.

While we are sharing this report, I want to make a special offer, limited to the next three days, that can help you integrate your business and investing.

We offer two courses for attaining financial security.

The first is our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.  The program contains  a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

You can learn all about this program at How to Have Real Freedom, but do not order the program there for $299 .  If you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course in the next three days, I’ll send you the program free.

I invite you to join me and a small selective group who for the next year will participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value to increase the value of and protect our savings, pensions, income and wealth in good times as well as devastating economic conditions.

Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example, in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you subscribe to Pi you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

Save $457.95 if You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $27  report “Silver Dip 2015” and the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through your own purposeful business and slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” and “Silver Dip 2015” plus the Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

I am so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email me within 60 days for a full refund  and keep the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” as my thanks for giving Pi a try.  

 

 

 

 

Three Current Multi Currency Equity Warnings


Here are three current multi currency equity warnings.

Long term market predictions rely on value and fundamentals rather than unpredictable short term fashion and emotion.  These long term indicators are dependable and accurate whereas the emotions that move the daily market are not.

In 2007  I wrote at this site:  Long term World Report readers know how much I believe in 30 year market cycles and that we are currently in a 15 year downward cycle supported by a history of over 100 years.

These cycles are intricately connected with waves of productivity.  Each productive evolution has been fueled by new technology, water power first, then steam, the internal combustion engine, jet engine, TV, telephone, computer and internet…all little productive ducks in a row…each helping mankind process more.  Each technology grew in perfection due to a war.

You can see this quite clearly, in the graph below, how each upwards cycle rises after a war (postwar boom) and how the market then crashes before the next upcoming war.

The first postwar boom probably started in about 1865. We cannot see this as the chart does not start until 1890. I am guessing the 1865 date because this was the end of the War between the States. This war was a battle over cotton the primary ingredient used in the water powered industrial revolution, an era dominated by textiles.

We can see this boom carrying on up through 1900.

The first fifteen year downwards cycle began in 1900 a downfall leading to WWI in 1914. There were a couple of short term blips (which also occurred in other cycles) probably one caused by the Russo-Japanese War which ended in 1905 when President Theodore Roosevelt mediated the Treaty of Portsmouth. The blip you see in 1907 was called the panic of 1907 and was caused by a run on the banking system. This was stopped by J.P Mogan’s importation of $100 million of gold from Europe , but the correction was only temporary as the chart clearly shows.  (This is important as we’ll see in a moment.)

Don’t we wish that the world’s economic problems could be solved with a mere $100 million of gold today?

Anyway at the end of WWI we see the next post war boom which runs up to 1929.

Then comes the next fifteen year down cycle from 1929 to 1945.

As in the last cycle there is a sharp downward blip in the middle caused by a run on U.S. banks which is once again mitigated by intervention, this time, FDR’s Presidential election and the New Deal.

There is a nice postwar boom 1946 through 1968 once again followed by a fifteen year downfall. (Note the sharp downwards blip in the middle caused when high inflation, a devaluing US dollar, and rising oil prices once again shook the U.S. banking system).

1968 began the next 15 year downwards cycle which was the rundown to WWIII (Reagan-Thatcher versus the Evil Empire), albeit a cold war.  That war caused the end of the USSR and the nuclear threat we had lived under. 

That ending in 1980 kicked off a post war boom that ran (surprise-surprise) for about 15 years until the crash of 1998.

Is this a coincidence or a pattern? If history has anything to do with the future then we can expect the following:

#1:  The next big bull market in Wall Street will begin about 2012.

That prediction was spot on and shows how accurate these long term fundamentals can be.

Three Warnings

online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB30001424052702304672404579188422879933300\

“New-Issue Flurry Hints At Trouble” for Markets by E.S. Browning

Just as financial markets were recovering from the Washington turmoil, a new danger signal has started blinking, in the form of a flood of stock and bond issues.  Many people see no problem. They find the new-issue action exciting, as the hoopla over last week’s $2.1 billion offering by Twitter Inc. TWTR -2.70% showed.

But when new issues become as massive as they are today, it can mean markets are overheating and getting ready to give back some gains. That is why some experienced investors weren’t wearing party hats at the Twitter celebration.
“I wouldn’t be surprised by a market correction here. I don’t think anyone would,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees more than $950 million in Washington, D.C.

Another Wall Street Journal article “Stocks Regain Broad Appeal – Individual Investors Are Returning to Stocks, Which Could Be Bad”  by Alexandra Scaggs says:    Mom-and-pop investors largely sat out the early years of the stock-market rebound, many of them still rattled by the 37% decline in the S&P 500 index in 2008. Meanwhile, institutions such as insurers fueled a broad rally by pouring cash into the market.

Five years after the financial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid signs that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. But the renewed optimism among retail investors is considered by many professionals to be a warning sign, thanks to a long history of Main Street arriving late to market rallies.

Cyclic Warning

We show this graph at our International Investing & Business seminars.

economic cycles

Click on chart to enlarge.

We are exiting the recovery stage where authorities relax money supply and there is high unemployment and high levels of uncertainty when the best place to invest is in shares.

We are entering a boom cycle where the best place to invest is cash, with rising inflation, falling unemployment and PE multiples expand.

Biggest Warning – Value

The recent post at this site Why the US dollar will fall  reviewed the Keppler Asset Management’s best value developed equity markets and Keppler’s implicit three to five year projection.

Keppler wrote:  Our implicit three-to-five-year projection corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 10.6 % in local currencies — down from 13.4 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 15.8 %, while the lower-band estimate corresponds to a compound annual total of a 4.6 % return.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/10645871053/in/photostream/

Growth rates of important fundamentals have kept up relatively well in the current low-interest environment: While the annual book value growth (September 2013 over September 2012) for the Equally Weighted World Index in local currencies dropped to 4.8 % from 7.5 % at the end of last June, both, cash flow and earnings growth accelerated to 5.1 % (previous quarter: 4.8 %) and 6.0 % (1.0 %), respectively. Dividend growth, which jumped to 7.6 % year over year at the end of June, slowed down a bit to an annual growth rate of 6.9 % at the end of the third quarter.

Monetary easing and high opportunity costs continue to drive equity prices. As expressed here before, multiples continue to expand: The price/earnings ratio of the Equally Weighted World Index which bottomed in September 2011 at 10.8 has now reached a new 42-month high at 16.4 – up from 14.2 at the beginning of the year. This 15.4 % increase of the price/earnings ratio in the first nine months 2013 now exceeds the 14.3 % year-to-date total return of the Equally Weighted World Index. Since the 43 3⁄4-year average price/earnings ratio of the Equally Weighted World Index is 15.2, we are now slightly above the historic average, but far from being excessive, considering that we experienced p/e-ratios in the high twenties on several occasions in the past. Multiple expansion will most likely continue in the current low-interest environment.

These implicit three-to-five-year projections are considerably down from recent years and earlier this year.

What can we do?

During the 2007 to 2009 meltdown, I was investing in bonds and have been reaping some nice rewards.  In 2010 I began investing the bond maturities into equities and really inexpensive Florida real estate to hold as rentals.  Now where?  I have a buildup of cash and hate this zero return stuff.  However I do have a solution shared in tomorrow’s message.

Until then, good investing and may everything else be bright as well!

Learn more about multi currency investing via Canada and Denmark from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Non Americans contact  Henrik Boelling at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

Save $200 on November early bird specials for Super Spanish courses and the February 2014 International Investing & Business course.

Gary

I am starting the 2014 update of my Report Borrow Low – Deposit High.  All subscribers to this report will automatically receive this update upon its publication.

Multi Currency Value Investment Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Learn about multi currency stock market breakouts at our Online Value Investing Seminar and save $502 or more.

The Value Investing Seminar is our premier course that we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years.  Now you can join the seminar online.

Multi Currency Seminar

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is 50% higher than before the recession and there is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Learn how to use value as a guide for spotting these breakouts that create fortunes.

Sign up for our current Value Investing Seminar and learn the latest breakout possibilities in global equities, currencies, real estate and commodities.

For example the seminar shows the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.

singapore dollar chart

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

The US dollar has been rising without valid economic reasons versus the Singapore dollar since the middle of 2011.  The rise has been especially strong since mid 2014.  This currency distortion creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak.  This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share in this seminar.

Here are the currency fundamentals:

US GDP Growth last year: 2.2%

Singapore GDP Growth last year: 2.9%

US current account balance for last year:  -$758 billion or -2.5% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year: +$49 billion or +21.2% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year:  -2.6%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year was a low: -0.7%

US Unemployment: 5%

Singapore Unemployment: 2.0%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds:  2.19%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds: 2.57%

These are economic signs of a currency’s strength.  They show a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Where to Invest

The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.

For example almost anyone can invest in the Currency Shares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG)  managed by Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the Currency Shares brand.

These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.

One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG).  The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar.  This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years.  The simple reason for this is that we aim for the really big profits earned at the start of a breakout.

In 2016 I want to kick off the year with you and share why I have confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.

Here is a partial syllabus of this online seminar:

International & Value Investing Outside the Box.  This session shows how to take advantage of unusual currency breakouts.

Here is an example.  At our October 2012 seminar we told delegates that the Japanese yen was too strong and was likely to weaken early in the next year. In the next six months, the US dollar rose 13% against the yen.  On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Delegates who acted and sold the yen short picked up an extra 13% forex profit in nine months.

There is a second way they could have earned.  They could have borrowed Japanese yen at a low interest rate (2.5%) and invested the borrowed yen into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

In this example $100,000 was invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000, 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%.

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.

yahoo finance chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose $25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words, the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.

The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.

How to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Details in the seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation   xxxxxx

The seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799.   Now because we have conducted the Value Investing Seminar online, you can save  thousands.  With the webinar, you save the cost of travel and accommodations, plus due to the fact that we don’t have to hire an expensive seminar room, we have dropped the fee from $799 to $297.  You save $502 on the fee alone plus eliminate the cost of travel and accommodations.

Enroll in the current Online Value Investing Seminar for only $297.

You can sign up for all three of the seminars that we’ll conduct this year and save even more.  As markets change we update the Value Investing Seminar, every four months, October, February, May.  Then we conduct the seminar in person in July or August.   The seminar available now has just been updated from our October 2015 seminar.

We have a special program for those who would like to join two, or all three of the seminars.

Two online Value Investing Seminars seminars: $397.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February 2016 seminar online.

All online Value Investing Seminars in 2016 $447.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February and May 2016 seminar online.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

(3)  www.finance.yahoo.com currency charts

 

 

 

 

WSJ New-Issue Flurry Hints At Trouble For Markets

WSJ Stocks Regain Broad Appeal

More Problems Emerge in Multi Currency Market


More Problems Emerge in Multi Currency Market.

Our multi currency message entitled Important Multi Currency Shift of two weeks ago said: We can see a huge multi currency market shift  in this Emerging Market Value Update.   There was a huge value shift of global stock markets in 2010.

Prior to the 2010 shift we weighted our recommendations toward investments in emerging markets.  They enjoyed faster growth than developed markets.  Then in 2010 we warned that values had flipped.  Developed markets offered better value than emerging markets.

Now the values have flipped again.  This update suggests that this is a good time to take profits on over weighting of developed market shares and to re calibrate one’s portfolio to an over weighting of emerging market shares.

See what that emerging market news means for this share Riocan REIT.

REIT

Up 112% since

REIT

The year’s drop in this share price creates value and a high yield.

Both images from www.ca.finance.yahoo.com

We can see the continued revaluation of emerging markets in the weekly market update at Jyske Global Asset Management which says:

Turmoil in Emerging Markets

Paradoxically, the prospect for an improving US economy, and the thereof scaling back of the extraordinary monetary measures is exhibiting the weaknesses in the Emerging countries – causing investors to flee.  

Since May, international investors have reduced their exposure to emerging markets in expectation of an imminent scaling down of QE (Quarterly Earnings).  The selloff culminated this week where especially India and Turkey got severely hit with plunging currencies and surging bond yields, bringing back memories to the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98.

In India, the rupee plunged to a record low and benchmark Indian bond yields surged to a 12-year high in a panic-response to last week’s limited domestic capital control.

India’s large current account deficit and inability to introduce substantial economic reforms have made the rupee especially vulnerable to capital outflow. Since May, the Rupee have depreciated almost 20% versus the US dollar.

Eric Roseman at ENR Asset Management, who will take over the management of the funds held by American investors at Jyske as of September, also noted the potential emerging problems in his August Outlook.

A growing conflict in Egypt risks tipping the Middle East into a wider conflict, possibly threatening Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Israel. The United States, thus far, has failed to contain the Egyptian crisis. U.S. foreign policy failure holds the cards for possibly re-balancing the actors in the Middle Eastern theater, if Egypt slides deeper into political turmoil and distances itself from the United States.

From a regional perspective, the major markets continue to offer lower relative volatility than the emerging markets and we continue to overweight advanced economies in 2013; India’s deepening economic crisis is another dose of bad news for emerging markets.

This suggests that long term opportunity is building in emerging markets.

For shorter term, especially for investors who require income, high yield shares in major markets still make sense.

Eric also wrote:  Our asset allocation still favors high quality equities that mostly pay dividends.

We still recommend Colony Financial (CLNY) sporting a yield greater than 7% and trading at a 13% discount to book-value.

Riocan REIT (REI. UN), Canada’s largest commercial REIT, has fallen sharply but trades at incredible values at this price. Riocan sells at a 52-week low, trades at 7.9 times trailing earnings and yields 5.86%

For more details, American investors should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Other Investors contact Henrik Boellingtoft at Jyske Private Bank at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

 Which to choose?

So where should one invest, in emerging markets or good value high yielding shares like Riocan?

My reply to the reader’s question below should help answer this question.

Gary,  Your recommended stock, Hyflux, has done poorly since your call. Unfortunately, I own it.  Do you still like it??  I know emerging market stocks are down; perhaps this is in sympathy.

My reply:  Yes, we have this in our portfolio as part of our long term growth strategy.

There are three negative elements at this stage.  One is the overall emerging market downgrade.  Singapore can hardly be called an emerging market but its main business is in emerging markets.

The next negative is the strong US dollar.  Over the last year the greenback has risen versus the currency in which the Hyflux shares are denominated.  

singapore dollar

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

This to me creates extra value because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and for the US dollar weak.

US GDP Growth last year 1.4%

Singapore GDP Growth last year 3.8%

US current account balance for last year  -$425 billion or -2.7% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year  +$49 billion or +19% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year -4.5%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year +0.7%

US Unemployment  7.4%

Singapore Unemployment  2.1%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds  2.71%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds 2.45%

This is a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Third, Hyflux has substantial investments in the Middle East and I believe this has been detrimental. However they are good managers and also are in China and both China and the Middle East need water… so we continue to hold for the long term.

However note in our personal portfolio breakdown that this only represents 2% of our holdings.  We see this as a long term capital opportunity, but you should work with a financial adviser to see what portion of your portfolio should be geared to income and what part capital appreciation. You could also plan what portion of your investments should be dedicated to short, medium and long term growth based on your financial position and needs.

Multi currency subscriber can see our 2103 portfolio breakdown at our password protected site.

Gary

Get a password and our multi currency portfolio report (normally $79)  free when you enroll in our October or February Investing and Business course.

Learn about the Singapore dollar breakout and when breakouts earn the greatest profits.

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Learn about multi currency stock market breakouts at our Online Value Investing Seminar and save $502 or more.

The Value Investing Seminar is our premier course that we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years.  Now you can join the seminar online.

Multi Currency Seminar

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is 50% higher than before the recession and there is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Learn how to use value as a guide for spotting these breakouts that create fortunes.

Sign up for our current Value Investing Seminar and learn the latest breakout possibilities in global equities, currencies, real estate and commodities.

For example the seminar shows the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.

singapore dollar chart

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

The US dollar has been rising without valid economic reasons versus the Singapore dollar since the middle of 2011.  The rise has been especially strong since mid 2014.  This currency distortion creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak.  This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share in this seminar.

Here are the currency fundamentals:

US GDP Growth last year: 2.2%

Singapore GDP Growth last year: 2.9%

US current account balance for last year:  -$758 billion or -2.5% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year: +$49 billion or +21.2% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year:  -2.6%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year was a low: -0.7%

US Unemployment: 5%

Singapore Unemployment: 2.0%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds:  2.19%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds: 2.57%

These are economic signs of a currency’s strength.  They show a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Where to Invest

The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.

For example almost anyone can invest in the Currency Shares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG)  managed by Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the Currency Shares brand.

These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.

One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG).  The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar.  This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years.  The simple reason for this is that we aim for the really big profits earned at the start of a breakout.

In 2016 I want to kick off the year with you and share why I have confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.

Here is a partial syllabus of this online seminar:

International & Value Investing Outside the Box.  This session shows how to take advantage of unusual currency breakouts.

Here is an example.  At our October 2012 seminar we told delegates that the Japanese yen was too strong and was likely to weaken early in the next year. In the next six months, the US dollar rose 13% against the yen.  On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Delegates who acted and sold the yen short picked up an extra 13% forex profit in nine months.

There is a second way they could have earned.  They could have borrowed Japanese yen at a low interest rate (2.5%) and invested the borrowed yen into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

In this example $100,000 was invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000, 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%.

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.

yahoo finance chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose $25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words, the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.

The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.

How to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Details in the seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation   xxxxxx

The seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799.   Now because we have conducted the Value Investing Seminar online, you can save  thousands.  With the webinar, you save the cost of travel and accommodations, plus due to the fact that we don’t have to hire an expensive seminar room, we have dropped the fee from $799 to $297.  You save $502 on the fee alone plus eliminate the cost of travel and accommodations.

Enroll in the current Online Value Investing Seminar for only $297.

You can sign up for all three of the seminars that we’ll conduct this year and save even more.  As markets change we update the Value Investing Seminar, every four months, October, February, May.  Then we conduct the seminar in person in July or August.   The seminar available now has just been updated from our October 2015 seminar.

We have a special program for those who would like to join two, or all three of the seminars.

Two online Value Investing Seminars seminars: $397.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February 2016 seminar online.

All online Value Investing Seminars in 2016 $447.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February and May 2016 seminar online.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

(3)  www.finance.yahoo.com currency charts

 

Good Value Emerging Stock Markets


Emerging stock markets have offered better value than major markets for over a decade.

However, there are good value and bad value emerging markets.

Emerging markets are growing much faster than major markets.

This fact has created great opportunity over the past four decades.  Emerging stock markets have risen about twice as fast as stock markets in mature economies with very little extra volatility or downside.

Overall, emerging markets still offer better potential than mature markets, but one must choose the correct markets with care… because there is always something we do not know… especially in emerging markets.

This is why seeking value is so important. Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.  Value means you are buying what is NOT in demand at a price lower than the object’s or share’s worth.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler’s latest analysis this October says:

After their setback in the second quarter 2010, Emerging Markets equities resumed their recent uptrend, which started in March 2009.

In the third quarter 2010, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 12.8 % in local currencies, 18 % in US dollars and 5.9 % in Euros.

Year to date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 7.9 % in local currencies, 10.8 % in US dollars and 16.4 % in Euros.

Of the three regional indices, Asia was up 12.1 %, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 13.3 % and Latin America gained 14.1 % last quarter.

In the last nine months ending in September 2010, the three regional indices gained 8.7 %, 9.4 % and 4.6 %, respectively. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Twenty markets advanced and one market declined in the third quarter. Peru (+24.9 %), Colombia (+24.3 %) and  Thailand (+24 %) performed best.

Morocco (-0.9 %), the Czech Republic (+0.5 %) and Mexico (+8.4 %) came in last.

Compared with their levels at the beginning of the year, twenty markets likewise were higher and one market declined.

The biggest winners this year have been Thailand (+33.9 %), Colombia (+33.4 %) and the Philippines (+31.9 %).

The Czech Republic (-1.3 %), Brazil (+0.1 %) and Taiwan (+1.4 %) have performed worst year-to-date.

There has been no change in our performance ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine national MSCI markets:

Brazil,

the Czech Republic,

Egypt,

Hungary,

Poland,

Russia,

Taiwan,

Thailand,

Turkey at equal weights.

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest  expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value)   Chile            India           Indonesia       Korea.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS China           Colombia      Malaysia      Mexico         Morocco      Peru    Philippines     South Africa.

Selecting good value stock markets is the first step in selecting good equity investments. You can find some extraordinary shares in any markets but you increase your odds when you look in markets that offer good value.

Gary

Warning!  I recommended investing in Turkey shares last July and that market has skyrocketed since (See my recommendation at International Investments in Turkey)

An October 25, Economist article says:  Economist warns investors about Turkish stock market

Investors can still make money from the İstanbul Stock Exchange but they, especially small investors, must be cautious of a bubble in the market, a senior economist warned on Monday.

Over the past couple of weeks, the İstanbul Stock Exchange had been rising to record high levels, Nurhan Toğuç, chief economist of Ata Investment, recalled.”We see a bubble at these levels in emerging markets. People can still make money but small investors must be very careful,” Toğuç said.

See how and why I have been investing in Turkey shares in my two reports on how to find value here.

Belong to the International Club

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership  at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 


International Investing 3% Solution


Here is the international investment three percent solution.

From 2005 into 2007 stock markets almost everywhere provided incredible returns. For example I work with Denmark ’s second largest bank. They are global equity experts and one of the portfolios (the Green Environment Portfolio) we created together rose 266.3% in one year. Another (The Emerging Market Portfolio) rose 114.2% in 2006 and 122.6% in 2007.

Yet in each case these portfolios also encountered gut wretching drops on their way up. That Green Portfolio for example in July 2007 dropped 103.22% in one month. The Emerging Market portfolio also moved like a yo-yo (see below).

In fact, over the last three years, despite impressive gains, there have been two periods of global market panic when almost every stock market dropped….like a stone….only to recover like a rocket ship.

The  in late 2007 we saw a huge wave of dumping shares.

This begged three questions.

#1: “Was this the big one?” Yes it was.

#2: “Will markets again recover…and when?”  They did.  In 2009 there was a huge recovery.

#3: This is an even more important question. “How can we as investors know what’s coming with at least a semblance of accuracy?”

The answer to this third question is  important because when a recovery comes, history suggests it will be sudden and dramatic.

You can see the recovery potential in the performance of the portfolios we created and tracked last year from November 2006 to October 2007. Equity markets collapsed in a month but recovered even faster. The portfolios utterly collapsed from July 20 to August 17. Then they rose between 40% and 128% in just two weeks.

Portfolios 2007 July 20 Aug 17 Aug 31 Oct 31
Swiss Samba 45.84% 15.19% 26.42% 53.32%
Emerging Market 67.67% 30.50% 58.18% 122.62%
Dollar Short 40.31% 9.14% 20.29% 48.19%
Dollar Neutral 38.07% 13.56% 22.33% 38.67%
Green 214.15% 110.93% 155.84% 266.30%

If the recent stock market dive is just another short term correction, some investors will make fortunes.

We saw stocks explode up from 2003 to 2007, then crash 50% in 2008 and rise almost as much in 2009.

stock-markets-index-chart

The gray line is the Morgan Stanley Global Stock Index… the green the performance of the State Street Global Advantage Fund.

Here are three simple facts can help you spot distortions in equity markets.

The first fact was confirmed by Alan Greenspan in his excellent book, “Age of Turbulence”.

“A major aspect of human nature-the level of human intelligence-has a great deal to do with how successful we are in gaining the sustenance for survival. As I point out at the end of this book, in economies with cutting-edge technologies, people, on average, seem unable to increase their output per hour at better than 3% percent a year over a protracted period. That is apparently the maximum rate at which human innovation can move standards of living forward. We are apparently not smarter to do better.”

That’s a huge fact. Overall we should expect the global economy to grow at about 3%.

This gives us a baseline for how much an investment should grow.

If an economy rises faster than 3%, it is distorted. During early stages of excessive growth, investors will be attracted. Shares will rise faster.

If the economy remains robust, shares become overbought. Then watch out! A correction will come.

This leads us to the second fact which is “all investments have risk”.

Rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk…which cannot be done, investors should look at three risk elements instead.

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions doe the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

Bank accounts and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments (especially if government guaranteed). A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%. So if a bank account or government bond pays less…in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better. Yet the idea is that bank accounts will not really make money. They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

To get real growth requires taking risk. If an investment appears to be less safe it will pay more than 3%. This is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe. Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier. Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks. Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

To attain higher growth than 7% to 10% investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

This is good because the market is almost always wrong. Most investors always trying to avoid risk. Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe. This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Knowing this helps wise investors spot trends created by distortions.

Take, for example, the emerging market trend that has been created by an imbalance in labor costs around the world.

There are 6.6 billion people on this earth (give or take a few hundred million). 1 billion of these people live on a dollar a day. 2.5 billion live on two dollars a day. This means that there is a vast pool of cheap labor that can create goods at bargain prices. Mature economies are buying these goods at such an increased rate that 20% of all goods produced now cross a border, mostly from poor countries to the rich.

This means that emerging economies are growing much faster than 3%. They are catching up and this has caused major markets to slow down.

The global economy grew 5% last year…way ahead of 3%. Mature economies are growing only 2.3% each year on average….so there is a lot more growth in emerging economies. Thus emerging stock markets are growing faster than matured stock markets as well.

Yet emerging economies are perceived to have greater risk.

Smart investors have seen the value create by this distortion and have been cleaning up. They have been paid a huge risk premium when the risk has not been real!

The risk has been eliminated by low labor costs in poor countries and improvements in communications and transportation.

From 200o to 2010  average annual return on emerging markets was 19.81% compared to 10% for major markets.

The Emerging Markets longest down turn was six months and the biggest drop 55%.
For major markets the longest down was also six months and biggest drop 53%.
In 2009 the Morgan Stanley Major Market Index was up +32.5%. The 2009 Emerging Market Index up +79%. In the first none months of 2010  the Major Market is up + 1.3% and 2010  for Emerging Markets up 8.2%.
So there was no more risk in emerging markets than major market… plus the upside has been much better.

Finally we come to the third fact. Periods of high performance are followed by times of poor performance.

Emerging stock markets have outgrown major markets by about 7.5 times in the last seven years. Yet their economies are only growing about twice as fast.

Major markets have grown on average about 6.5% per annum for the past seven years….a little below what they should.

This means that it is probably time for emerging equity markets around the world to correct down and major markets up a bit.

Yet in times of global panic as we have recently seen, all markets tend to drop. This means that at this time major markets which may have been somewhat undervalued and should be rising are being pushed down by the drop of emerging markets (which should correct themselves).

Understanding these three facts leads us to know that a portfolio of global shares is the most likely bargain at this time.

This is why we have been recommending High Yield shares at this time. Most are major market equities that provide income and growth potential… plus make it easy to diversify.

There you have it. Understanding the 3% solution and what markets have done shows a distortion. Blue chips may be oversold more than emerging shares now.

In the long term, emerging shares will rise. Poor people remain and are willing and able to make goods that the rich will buy. This will push their economies higher faster than in major economies. Yet for now the three percent solution shows that major markets and high quality shares are more likely to recover from the current doldrums first.

Global investing has proven itself to be more profitable. Why not? Modern communications and transport coupled with a vast pool of low cost labor almost guarantees this fact. Now knowing three more facts based on the 3% solution can give you an edge when it come to taking advantage of the ups and downs in this global trend.

Study 54 High Yielding shares in my latest international investing report “Running Risk” $49.

Gary

Belong to the International Club

Enjoy the Good New Days

Many people yearn for a return to the good old days.  This is a mistake.  Those days are gone and will never return.  Honestly they really were not that good.  We would be sorry if they were here now.  The future is better and for a special few the days, months and years ahead will be much better than the past.   We plan to be among them and invite you to join us in an easier, freer, richer, safer world.

Soon you will be reading… again, about how instability in the US dollar threatens our lifestyles.  The dollar, once the world’s reserve currency is burdened with debt and deficits that threaten economic and social order almost everywhere.  This is nothing new.  In fact, deterioration in the greenback is one reason for a seven decade downward spiral in your and my freedom.  When we work hard and save carefully, but get less and less in return, we become boxed in.  It’s a never ending rat race.  This is a trap, a downwards spiral where the more dollars we get the less we can buy.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

downwards spiral

A downward spiral of the US dollar began the downward spiral of our freedom.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife Merri and I have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.  Let me share the basics of this data and how it can help you.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite the many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.  Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life too.

The concept of democracy, as we learned it, has weakened, but we still have free will and do not have to let poor government, wars, economic and social injustice blur our well-being.  We can still be free and responsible for our health, our income and our wealth.  The majority of people blame on government and big business for economic failure.  They want them to fix the problems, step back from the change and rebuild from what they perceive as ruin.

The few who succeed see change as a gift instead.   No change is a guarantee that nothing gets better.  Evolution brings destructive innovation but such change is not ruin. It is opportunity.

The change in the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but is also a chance for huge profit as i explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.  That debt is all the debt issued by the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  In other words in the ten years from 2006 to 2016 the US government added as much debt as it had accumulated in the previous 216 years!

That number does not include state and local debt.  That number doesn’t include so-called “agency debt ( debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.  That  dreadful number does not include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Do you feel burdened by personal debt?  Well, add the Federal National Debt because per person it is over $60,000.  If one adds in all the other debt each and every American owes over $100,000!   For each family of four, our friendly Congress has added an extra $400,000 debt.

How can America pay this back?

The answer is they cannot.  However there is good news.  Payback actually does not matter.  No one expects the US or any country to ever pay back all its debt.  Isn’t that nice? We all owe $100,000 but don’t have to pay it back?  Right?

Here is the bad news.  Everyone does expect every country to pay its national debt service.   This is why we know there will be a downward dollar spiral.  You see when debt service gets too high, governments always let the purchasing power of the currency fall.  It’s a dirty trick.  Someone owes you a bunch of dollars every month and they pay it.  The problem is those dollars buy less clothing, less food, less housing and energy and less everything.

Wait a minute isn’t that good for us?  If we each owe a $100,000 but get to pay it back in devalued dollars, don’t we reduce our debt?   Yes, but those are the same dollars we are paid with.  Those are the same dollars that pay for our food, our clothing and our shelter. Those are the same dollars in our savings account so the reduced purchasing power lowers our standards of living too!

Go to the store.  Buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.   Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

A huge dollar conundrum looms from the rising national debt service as well.  During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and remained really low.  Now rates are starting to rise as will the US national debt service.  This chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

Largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to keep interest rates low, the U.S. government is paying historically low rates on its debt.

The CBO projects, unless the law changes, US national interest costs will more than double over the next 10 years, rising from $270 billion in 2017 to $712 billion in 2026 and totaling $4.8 trillion over the period.  Interest costs are expected to continue climbing beyond the next 10 years and are projected to be the third largest category in the federal budget by 2028 (after just Social Security and Medicare), the second largest category in 2046, and the single largest category in 2050.

These interest costs add up to trillions of dollars that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care or the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.  Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?  What can we do?

The answer to a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I are in our 48th year of living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Low cost natural health.

#2:  Global micro business income.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, easy to make value investments.

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on investing better.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

The three disciplines, health, earning and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three shamanic health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However club members receive these three reports worth $59.85 free.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to club members free. They save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but club member receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost 767.78 so membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership  at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons throughout 2017 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

International Investing Update


Here is an International Investing Update:

We need to continually update our investment plans to protect the purchasing power of our savings, investments and pensions.

Let’s begin this international investment update with a look at the state of the market for bonds.

At Jyske Bank’s most recent Global Wealth Seminar, one of the great speakers was Tommy Leung. He is in charge of the bond trading for UBS in London… so I really enjoyed listening to him and then talking more about bonds over dinner.

tommy-leung

Tommy Leung speaking to Thomas Fischer and other speakers at the Jyske Global Wealth Seminar.

Tommy pointed out that there may be a bond bubble in several segments of the bond markets.

This chart from his speech at the Jyske conference shows how bonds out- performed shares even during the credit crisis.

global-bonds-2010-

He showed how some segments of the corporate bond yields are near…

global-bonds-2010-

20 year lows. This is what a bond bubble is about… low yields.  This means that bonds are expensive.

However Tommy looked at some segments of the bond market that still offer potential.

Here is another slide from his presentations.

global-bonds-2010-

Summed up this slide says to me: There are still opportunities in high yield investment grade bonds. Avoid the below investment grade (BBB) issues.

Some bond issues he reviewed included the bonds below:

Name: New World Resources Miners   (NWORLD)

Bond: 7.875% 2018

Rating: BB-

Yield:  7.13%

Name: Rhodia Chemicals RHA

Bond: 7% 2018

Rating: BB-

Yield: 6.30%

Name: Obrascon Huarte Lian Construction OBRAS

Bond: 7.375% 2015

Rating: BB-

Yield: 8.57%

Name:  Virgin Media Cable VMED

Bond: 9.5% 2016

Rating: B+

Yield: 6.05%

Name: Campofrio Food Group Food CPFSM

Bond: 8.25% 2016

Rating: B+

Yield: 7.68%

Be sure to check with your investment adviser for current bond yields as they continually change.

Leung also  mentioned high yielding equities.

With the global economy in a shaky recoverywith continued high US and Western European unemployment and… since equity markets had bounced strongly after the recession, we are likely to see a period of high uncertainty volatility and low growth in stock markets.

Yet we face great inflation risk.  The huge debt and public spending in both the US, Europe and Asia will at some time lead to global inflation.

The normal investments thus are equities, high yielding bonds, commodities, real estate or one’s own business.

If bonds  are expensive and equities risky, where does one go?

High yielding equities may be the answer.

Jyske Global Asset Mangers (JGAM) believe this and have produced a report “High Dividend Paying Stocks” that identifies 54 high yield shares.

JGAM wrote:  As the next few years most likely will show subdued economic growth, we believe that less cyclical companies and companies paying high dividend yields have become even more attractive.

With interest rates at historic lows, money in the bank generates little or no return, while the yield from government bonds -2.6% for the 10-year Treasuries – is not that appealing. We believe there are a great number of high-quality equities which offer a yield in excess of cash and bonds.

In addition to their attractive dividends yield above that of cash and bonds, most also offer good prospects for long-term growth.

We have prepared a list of companies we find interesting. High dividend yield stocks tend to be less risky and volatile than growth stocks, as long as they keep pumping out the dividend. This may partly be due to investors being content with sitting back and collecting their checks when the market gets rough. Please note though, they are still stocks and in case of a new contraction, these may to varying degree be negatively affected by this.

Here are seven of these shares that I like and will review at our October 7 to 10 International Investing and Business Course.

American Water Works Co USA USD  provides drinking water, wastewater and other water-related services in multiple states and Ontario, Canada. The Company’s primary business involves the ownership of regulated water and wastewater utilities that provide water and wastewater services to residential, commercial and industrial customers.

E.ON AG E.Germany EUR operates in power generation and gas production businesses.
The Company’s operations include electric generation at conventional, nuclear, and renewable-source facilities; electric transmission via high-voltage wires network; regional distribution of electricity, gas, and heat; power trading and electricity, gas, and heat sales.

Endesa, S.A. Spain EUR generates, distributes, and trades electricity in Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, North Africa, and Latin America. The Company distributes natural gas, operates co-generation plants, and treats and distributes water.

Enel S.p.A. Italy EUR 3 generates, transmits, distributes, and trades electricity.
The Company operates hydroelectric, geothermal, and other generating plants. Enel, through subsidiaries, also provides fixed-line and mobile telephone services, installs public lighting systems, and operates real estate, factoring, insurance, telecommunications, and Internet service provider businesses.

Veolia Environnement France EUR operates utility and public transportation businesses. The Company supplies drinking water, provides waste management services, manages and maintains heating and air conditioning systems, and operates rail and road passenger transportation systems.

Land Securities Group Plc UK GBP a property investment and management company. The Group invests in real estate, including offices, shops and shopping centres, out of town retail locations, supermarkets and industrial/warehouse facilities throughout the United Kingdom. Land Securities’ portfolio also consists of a small percentage of hotel, leisure and residential properties.

Suntec REIT Singapore SGD is a real estate investment trust.
This Asian company was  established with the objective of investing in income-producing real estate properties which are used primarily for retail and office purposes.

You can get the report on all 54 shares including a table that JGAM has prepared mid-August that shows:

#1: Latest share price
#2: Latest paid dividend
#3: Yield  – latest paid dividend as a percent of latest share price
#4: Whether the dividend is paid annually, semiannually or quarterly
#5: Bloomberg recommendation – on Bloomberg analysts following the company stating thei4 recommendation to Buy, Hold or Sell
#6: Bloomberg 12 month Price Target – is an average on the analysts price targets
#7: Morgan Stanley – Their 12 month price target and recommendation
(UW = Under Weight – EW = Equal Weight – OW = Over Weight) and Percentage Upside/downside on the 12 month price targets from Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley.

To obtain this report, contact Thomas Fischer at JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

Or join me with Thomas Fischer, Jean Marie Butterlin at Team Ecuador, David Cross, my webmaster, Bob Shane  and Ann Russell Roberts for our October seminar…coming up in the Blue Ridge with all its autumnal glory!

Enroll here. $749 Reserve here –  $999  Reserve for two

I also believe there is excellent opportunity for income and growth in real estate… especially in Florida and Ecuador.

This is why we are continually adding Ecuador properties in our Ecuador Multiple Listing like this house in Guayaquil.  Here you gain rental income potential and appreciation potential when inflation surges.

Guayaquil House

guayaquil-house-for-sale

2 story, 3 bedroom, 3 bath home.  Large European style kitchen, guest bathroom, foyer, living room dining room, laundry room and a very large backyard. Ciudad Celeste is near the Babahoyo River.   Upgrades on closets, lighting and cabinets.

This is a gated community with tennis court, olympic size swimming pool, social area, gym. Maintenance fee is $55 a month.

See more details and contacts under “Guayaquil House” at our Ecuador MLS.

Gary


Global Investing & Major Market Value Update


We’ll see a global investing major market value update in a moment.

First, let’s look at this important data that Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) just shared.

Thomas Fischer is Senior Vice President of Jyske Global Asset Management.

thomas-fischer-jyske

Thomas began his banking career in 1975. In 1978  he started in the trading room as a Foreign Exchange dealer, and spent the next 22 years trading currencies. During this trading career he spent 2 years in London and 10 years in Germany where he was head of the international currency section of a major German brokerage company.

During his time in Germany he successfully completed an MBA focusing on the external environment and corporate finance.  In 2000 he joined Jyske Bank Private Banking and was promoted to Manager of International Client Relations in 2001.

In 2008 Thomas joined the newly established Portfolio Management Company Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM), as Senior Vice President.  He is  a member of JGAM’s Investment Committee focusing on our Foreign Exchange strategy.  He travels the world giving presentations about the markets and the investment opportunities at JGAM.

Yesterday’s message Global Investment Portfolios Focus looked at JGAM’s medium risk international investment portfolio.

This portfolio has been updated and Thomas wrote:  On July 15 JGAM’s Investment Committee held its monthly meeting, deciding on how to invest our managed portfolios. All trades agreed at the meeting have now been carried out and therefore we can publish the changes we have made.

The overall asset allocation remained at a neutral position in all asset classes except for a small overweight position on cash in low and medium risk portfolios.

However Thomas added more. Here is information on what the future that we should all be thinking about.

The markets have been caught in a verbal fight between optimists and pessimists. The latter group most prominently presented by Princeton University Economist Paul Krugman, has warned policy makers that the world is heading for the worst depression since the thirties.

Mr. Krugman has on many occasions warned that the US is in danger of falling into a deflationary trap. He is advocating for a much more aggressive stimulus plan as unemployment remains stubbornly high, with little job creation at private companies.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke however, has been more optimistic and recently expressed that the US economy is on track to continue to expand in 2010 and 2011. World trade is up 20% year-on-year but is recovering from extremely low levels.

The optimists also argue, that the corporate sector should start investing soon and thereby improve the employment picture. When the corporate sector increases spending, nominal growth should pick up and help improve budget deficits.

According to The Economist magazine, the recent uncertainty may be down to a fundamental battle between bond investors who benefit from a debt deflation solution to the current crisis; and equity investors who gain more from a nominal growth solution to deficits. The jury is still out and with no clear indication of where we are heading, uncertainty will rule the market. We still believe that we are heading for a recovery and a growth scenario, but as long as the “war” between optimists and pessimists are raging in the media we maintain our neutral positions.

After four consecutive quarters with rising equity prices, Global equities had their first down quarter since March 2009. In the second quarter 2010, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) declined 11.2 % in local currencies, 12.7 % in US dollars and 3.5 % in euros.

So who will win out… the optimists or the pessimists?

Personally  I am prepared for either scenario.  In our last International Investing & Business Conference we looked at seven places to inest now that can prosper in either a positive or negative economic scenario.

#1:  Value Markets

#2: Multi Currency Spreads Increase Cash

#3: Emerging Markets

#4: Wellness

#5: Water Alternate Energy

#6: Truth & Cohesion

#7: Real Estate

Value holds a special place for investors and business people… local or global because value is another way of seeing distortions.  Distortions are vacuums and nature abhors a vacuum.  Imbalances will always correct themselves. To have success in investing or business… one simply has to spot good value.

Understanding value is the tricky part. 

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

For the last quarter to the end of June 2010, Keppler points out that  year to date, the MSCI World Index lost 7.1 % in local currencies and 9.8 % in US dollars. However, due to the 14.6 percent decline of the US dollar to 1.2249 versus the euro, the world equity benchmark index gained 5.6 % during the last six months, if performance is measured in euros.

Two markets advanced in the second quarter and sixteen declined. Denmark (+4.5 %), Sweden (+0.3 %) and Singapore (-0.1 %) performed best.

Japan (-14.8 %), Austria (-14.3 %) and Italy (-13.4 %) came in at the bottom.

Year-to-date, four markets are up and fourteen markets are down. The best performing markets in the first half of 2010 were Denmark (+21.7 %), Sweden (+8.8 %) and Belgium (+1.2 %). Spain (-21.4 %), Italy (-14.8 %) and Norway (-13.7 %) performed worst year-to-date.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio currently contains the following six “buy” rated countries at equal weights:  Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom. Keppler’s current ratings suggest that a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Keppler’s neutral value markets are now: Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain.

The low value (sell) markets are:  Belgium,  Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong,  Sweden, Switzerland and USA.

Keppler also added:  As the chart below indicates, our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the average annual gain of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 14.3 % p.a., up from 11.9 % three months ago.  The two main reasons for this increase are (1) the Index dropped by 9 % during the second quarter and (2) fundamentals have improved: Earnings are up 16.6 % — the larger part of the increase coming from disappearing write-offs — and dividends grew by 4.1 %. In addition, the low interest rate environment makes stocks look attractive.

keppler-value-equity-market-analysis

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five- year projection provides some profound clues about how to invest and conduct business ahead.

His statistics suggest to me that the economy and markets are still going to grow.  The pessimists… according to my interpretation of these numbers… lose.

This is not the only indicator I track that suggests positive days ahead… not immediately… but over the next three to five years.

From now until October offers a special micro window of opportunity…. maybe one of two before 2002… when the next 15 to 17 year bull cycle will begin.

Right now seasonality is dragging markets down until around November.  Perhaps we’ll see one more good bear pull April to November 2011.  Then the recovery will begin in earnest. From now until then, history suggests times will be bleakest… a great time to find good value.

Thomas Fischer also mentioned the beauty of Denmark’s summer and wrote:

Summer has arrived in Denmark and we are basking in glorious sunshine. We hope the weather will “perform” for the next few months and thus create a warm background for our August Copenhagen seminar.

We have a range of world class speakers and should have some really exciting presentations. We will furthermore have excursions allowing you to get a closer look at our beautiful city. We will conclude the seminar Saturday evening with a gala dinner and opera arias performed by some of the best Danish opera singers from The Royal Danish Opera. We hope you will take this opportunity to come to Copenhagen and experience some renowned Danish “hygge”/coziness. You can see the whole program and a short video at the below link at http://jgam.com/copenhagen-seminar-2010

When we forwarded the invitation in April the price was approx. $2,050 per person in a double room, but since then the USD has strengthened against the Danish Kroner and the price today is approx. $1,700. The price includes accommodation including breakfast at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel just voted the best hotel in Denmark, reception at our offices, seminar fee, excursions, lunches and a gala dinner with entertainment and dancing.

Danes have been voted the happiest people in the world and now we also have the best restaurant in the World. The restaurant is called NOMA which is a concatenation of the two Nordic names Nordisk (Nordic) and mad (food). The chef, Rene Redzepi, uses only Scandinavian ingredients and how about this for a starter: crunchy baby carrots served with edible “soil” made from malt, hazelnuts and beer, with a cream herb emulsion beneath.

Our slogan “Global investments with a personal touch” is not just a slogan we really enjoy any opportunity to meet with our clients and friends. We sincerely hope that you will join us in August in Wonderful Copenhagen.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

Merri and I walk  the waterfront every day when we are in Copenhagen.  We love…

investment-course

the sights, the…

investment-course

cafes and…

investment-course

open air.

Merri and I hope to meet you in Denmark in August!

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

Regain Real Security

There is a path to true security.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.  Almost!

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.  Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?  Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.  This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

This is why I am making a special three day “Let’s get our lives back offer”.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.   This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are most likely to make good investment, business and lifestyle decisions.

Without comfort, no matter how much money a person has changes are, they’ll eventually lose it or kill themselves with stress from worry.

There is a way to have the perfect form of financial security.  Let’s call it the perfect pension.  To help understand how to build an unshakable economic platform, here is Part One of the report, The Pruppie Factor.

The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits.

“May you live in interesting times”.  That’s a Chinese curse that seems to have been cast on our modern world.  We can enjoy comfort and profits in the year ahead despite this fact.

Become a Pruppie.  Integrate your earning with your investing and enjoy peak living, everlasting wealth and natural health with PIEC Investing in the year ahead.

Before we look at what PIEC means, let’s delve into Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies expect everything to expand.  They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can.  Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.  They also engage in activity that they love that would sustain them in case society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society should fail.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.  Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Hope springs eternal and it should.  One of the key themes in my first book, Passport to International Profit, (published in the 1970s) was “The Sun Always Shines Somewhere”.  This thought has been in and remains a foundation of everything I do.

Sometimes this sunshine is hard to see because the press always focuses on doom and gloom.  Current news often makes the world seem about to end.  We cannot blame the press. Bad news sells.  The majority seem to want to worry instead of learn about all that’s good.  This does not make doom and gloom right.  This is why the majority are also the rich portion of the population, but bad news is an economic fact for the press.

Yet despite all the negative headlines, we have lived through the Cold War and MAD, Y2K, GridX II, the Peak Oil Crisis, the recession of the 1970s, 1980s 2007, etc. etc. etc.  Chicken Little is always out there, selling the falling sky.  Don’t buy into this story!

History suggests that there will always be opportunity.  The sun always shines somewhere.

Brexit, global warming and the election of Donald trump as President of the United States are 2016 examples of how the press gravitates to negative news.  These three events may be bad news or not.  The future will tell, but they are examples of how the media focuses on tiny parts of our infinite existence.  They can make anything and just about everything seem negative.  This can blind us to the positive realities ahead, if we let it.  Don’t.  Expect that the world will remain standing and look for opportunity instead!

Our wealth and economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  We are part of a growing global population.  New technology makes more people, as a whole, more productive every day.  The world has increasingly larger markets creating more supply in increasingly efficient ways.

This reality increases everyone’s wealth.  Yes there is a lot of bad news in many places.  There is inequality.  There is crime.  There is war and hate and injustice.   Despite these negatives there is even more that is positive.  Opportunity grows.

Pruppies tap into and use every bit of the good news they can.  They have a plan B if everything goes wrong, but Plan B is based on something a Pruppie wants to do we love, not just a shelter from bad news.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate earning and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Imagine this example of Pruppism.  The Tiffany lamp casts an amber glow, rich, ivory and warm in the grey gloom of early dusk.  The gold knobbed mahogany desk, its deep patina waxed and smooth, shines with reflections of ancient leather Chesterfields stuffed full, but rumpled with age and of maritime shots that hang in brass frames on the wall. The room speaks of settled tradition, the kind that might never end.  But thoughts instead are on the demise of the business that has supported this room.

The late Jim Slater of Slater Walker, a British industrial conglomerate turned bank in the 1970s was in that room.  I recall his bank’s collapse well as I was living in Hong Kong and Slater Walker was a huge going concern in what was a British colony in those days.  The Slater Walker crash was big news that unsettled the entire British banking system at the time.

Slater, the founder, had been a really high roller, using every modern banking tactic available including buying many assets with cheap loans.  Then in the mid 1970s banking crisis interest rates skyrocketed and his bank was unable to refinance its debt.  The company failed and Slater had to resign.  Numerous charges were brought against him and he spent considerable time defending what he had done.

In the end he was only fined a nominal sum but despite this, his banking career was well and truly dead.

However he had already moved on.

He wrote about this in his autobiography, “Return To Go”.  He had always had a hobby making puppet shows and telling stories to his children, so instead of banking, he turned his passion into profit and wrote some children’s books.  His first effort sold a respectable 35,000 copies.  His next a monster series for younger children, became a huge hit.

He had also maintained a hobby of salmon fishing so again turned his passion into profit by creating a business that bought up fishing rights and resold them as time-shares.  He had quite a success.

Some day a catastrophe beyond our control could redirect the course of our lives.  We might lose a job, learn that our pension won’t pay or that our dollars won’t buy as much as they must.

Though Jim Slater was a banker, outside economic forces beyond his control caused his business disaster.  Yet he had options because he had been doing things he loved that were not related to his banking, but could become useful income generators in difficult time.

I do not know if Slater understood Pruppism but that’s what he was practicing.

Pruppism is a positive realism based on the knowledge that much of our lives are directed by events that we do not know or expect and could not change them even if we did.  There is always something we do not know and that’s okay.

Years ago I was speaking at an investing seminar in Marbella Spain.  One of the speakers was a brilliant strategist, Johan Peter Paludan, of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.  This institute has a large interdisciplinary staff with expertise in economics, political science, ethnography, psychology, engineering, PR and sociology.  They identify and analyze global trends that influence the future.  Paludan was speaking of these trends and answering questions that delegates had about the world’s economic future.

One delegate asked what to do if there was a global nuclear exchange.  Paludan replied that the results of some events are so unpredictable that it is not worth trying to plan for them.

This thought has stuck with me for decades because it helped me realize that no matter how cautious, how defensive and careful we are, there are events that we cannot even imagine that can turn our lives upside down, for the good or bad.  With this in mind my wife Merri and I have created a lifestyle where we turn our passions into profit but in a way that whatever happens we are likely to be in a position to spot the positive and the opportunity.

A PIEC Experience

Pruppies gain the benefits of PIEC wealth.  PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  PIEC income and wealth come from doing what you do for love, rather than just the money.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income.  They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn.  They hope, that maybe the savings will bring, sometime in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

Pruppies reverse the priorities.  Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now.  Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way.  They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

If economic circumstances tie them to an existing income effort, they create hobbies that are income producers of the future.

For example, if a Pruppie loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he or she will create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet.  But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed.  He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice.  So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses.  Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

Pruppies combine money with time, energy and desires.  They generate income doing something desired.  Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

#1: Do What You Love!

The reason PIECs work well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Effort, determination and tenacity are wealth building attributes that cannot fail.  Yet Pruppism does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100.  Smart Pruppies start small and gradually expand into their passion.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life.  Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors.  So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where I developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air.  Now I live in nature so after I finish the writing or talking, I can walk in the woods or take my axe and chop firewood or something physical.  I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense.

We built a series of cabins in the wild that bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift. Now we have been at this for nearly two decades and we are far from finished.  But while doing what we love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retired folks who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream.  This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems.  We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.  What do we sincerely want?

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth.  Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm.  How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams?  The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must take the third step and become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit.  We always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas.

Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to keep adding new opportunities into our lives.  Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

#2: Do what you love, but also be of service.  Do something for others that is meaningful and important to you.

We all have a purpose in life and when we are filling it, we feel fulfilled.  Wealth and fulfillment is the goal.  Fulfillment is important because of the law of diminishing returns.  A 2008 study that analyzed Gallup surveys of 450,000 Americans suggested that day-to-day contentment improves until income hits around $75,000 per annum.  After that, more money just brings more stuff, with far less gain in happiness.  Income beyond $75,000 does not do much for a person’s daily mood.

This is a pretty general study and regional differences in costs, inflation and life circumstances will create many fluctuations from this norm, but the point is when money is the main goal, the better you get, the harder it will be to gain satisfaction.

Giving, on the other hand, never has limitations, especially when the giving helps complete a purpose that is part of our destiny.

This is true in business and investing.  A study of investors for example found that investors with socially responsible ideals gained the best returns.  A dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments and the added stick-to-it-ness helps increase profits.

The financial giant State Street Corporation’s Center for Applied Research did an 18 month study of 7,000 investors to get a better understanding of the role incentives play in making investment decisions.  Based on this study a new measure of investment performance called “Phi” was created.  Portfolios were previous rated by their Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. Phi is the newest measure of performance.

Alpha measures an investment’s performance against a market index.  If the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 10 percent and a mutual fund is up 15 percent, for example, that 5 percentage point difference is alpha.

Beta is the return of any given market.  And charting beta is what a passive index fund does.  Comparing different indexes’ beta — say domestic equities and international bonds — helps investors in deciding how to allocate their investments.

Gamma is a measure of the impact on returns of more intelligent financial planning decisions.  A Gamma rating quantifies the additional value that can be achieved by optimal asset allocation, a dynamic withdrawal strategy, incorporating guaranteed income products (i.e., annuities), tax-efficient decisions, and liability-relative asset allocation optimization.

What phi aims to add is a way for investors to quantify how their motivations — or those of the people managing their money — will affect long-term investment returns.

The study examined what motivates a person to invest — or not and found that main investment motivations are market-based motives, the most frequent and powerful being fear in the market.  Both market motivations, the prospect of profit and the fear of loss, can have a negative effect on long-term performance.

A deep sense of purpose is what causes a high phi score.  A high phi factor is not about outperforming markets or peers, and it’s not an asset-gathering measure of performance.  Pi performance is defined as sustainable investing with a deeper sense of purpose.

People who invested with socially responsible ideals did best in the study.  The dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments.

The study helped define three aspects of investing that are generally ignored, purpose, habits and incentives.

Purpose.  Purpose requires some soul-searching questions about what we each want our life to be.  This purpose is more important than the investment goal.  The purpose of the money we have becomes more important than the amount in the portfolio.

Habits.  Habits come next because we need to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The marketplace does all it can to distract us from our goals.  There is an endless stream of news, rumor, conjecture, facts figures, ideas and tactics generated by every part of every stock market aimed at getting us to act in ways that benefit the agenda of others.

Habits help us avoid being distracted from what we are meant and want to do.  The muffle the noise of Madison Avenue, the spin from Washington DC and the hidden agendas of big business.

Incentive.  Changing incentives to accomplish a purpose instead of a numerical (percentage or profit) goal helps us adopt better behavior.  We react to accomplishing our meaningful purpose instead of drama created by media as well as manipulation and short term whims in markets.

The study showed that changing incentives in this way improved phi when they had a meaningful impact on a person’s investment strategy.

The study found these facts: Every one-point increase in people’s orientation toward investment goals with a purpose — and the scale is 0 to 3 — equated to 42 percent greater odds that the investors know what they are paying in fees, 37 percent greater odds that investors are not rejecting their financial adviser, 38 percent greater odds that the people consider investing in socially responsible investments and 79 percent greater odds that investors will trade less frequently, the research found.

As in so many others cases, two of the most important factors of success are keeping costs and trading activity low.  These are among the most powerful ways to increase wealth.  Having greater fulfillment as well as more wealth is a bonus that Pruppies call “Everlasting Wealth”.

Figure out what is really important in life for you and then find ways to invest in that purpose.  When you do, you’ll be on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not so easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

Learn to focus your investments using purpose as the most important investment goal.  The purpose of money becomes more important than the amount.

Learn how to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The market will do all it can to distract us from our goals.  Understand that many banks, brokers, the media, the government and commerce all have agendas to take our money, not make more for us.   Good wealth habits and routines protect us from this.

#3: Integrate your earning and investing. 

Long term success in business and investing are determined by control and comfort.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are serving a valuable purpose, the best we can, regardless of how events unfold.

Real comfort helps maintain determination, dedication and enthusiasm, all among the most vital parts in the process of succeeding in investing and business.

Our own business increases comfort because a business is simply an investment that gives us more control due to the addition of our own time and energy. 

A Personal Income Earning Corridor (PIEC) begin with a main income generator that we control.  For some this is a job with a salary.  For others it is a pension. For many it is their own business.

Integration of business and investing is important because investments are not always good income generators.

Years ago I managed an investment portfolio for Canada’s largest private investment management firm.  One day, during lunch with the president of the firm, we discussed the difficulties of professional fund management.  He explained that one of his biggest problems was the excessive expectation of customers.

“I have a retired client who has a million dollars”, he said.  “The client wants $90,000 a year to live on.  In a good year, we might earn 11%.  The client can take 9%. Our fee is 1% and the client’s fund increase by 1%.  In a bad year, we might earn 5%. The client takes 9%.  Our fee is 1% and the client’s funds drop by $50,000.  In the next year the client has even less to work with so a withdrawal of $90,000 may be more than 9% of the portfolio.  The client tends to take even more in good years, but never reduces the demand in bad years.”

The number one golden rule of investing is that there is always something we do not know.  Risk is always our partner.  When we invest, there is always potential that will negatively affect our financial welfare.  Our investments might rise or fall because of market conditions (market risk).  Corporate decisions, such as whether to expand into a new area of business or merge with another company, can affect the value of our investments (business risk).  If we own an international investment, events within that country can affect our investment.  There is both political and currency risk.  There is liquidity risk because we may need to draw on an investment at a time when it price is low.

Plus there are broken promises.

We live in an era of broken promises.  Defaults could ruin most average retirees and even investors.

A look at government, social and currency breakdown at its worst can help us see the problem.  Germany is an example when it borrowed heavily to pay WWI costs.  Such borrowing almost always leads to currency and social erosion and this did then.  Right after the war there was some stability, before government spending began to run wild.  By 1923, it reached the worst in history.  This caused prices to sometimes double in hours. In Germany by late 1923 it took 200 billion marks to buy a loaf of bread.

Hard-working people with modest spending habits could not even buy a postage stamp with their life savings.  All debt was wiped out but so too were all savings.

Salaries were paid three times a day yet shops were empty.  Food riots raged. Businesses closed down, unemployment soared.  The economy collapsed.

Anyone on a fixed income was destitute.  They sold everything just to buy food.

Small businesses however survived because they could hold material things such as clothing, food, anything people could consume. 

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

This is a bigger problem then it may seem because it creates an even bigger broken promise concerning the US dollar.

Medicare and Social Security already account for 41% of federal spending.  That was the expenditure last year.  This is not a static problem.  Each year that percentage is growing worse.  This creates a special risk for the dollar because Social Security’s reserves are not really assets at all.  The purported assets are simply IOUs from the US government.

Social Security assets are a liability of the government, so eventually the money comes from the same place as all other government expenditure, taxes or federal debt.  This means that if Social Security has to sell an asset, then the government, already overburdened by debt, will have to borrow the money from somewhere else.

If the Fed cannot raise enough money to pay Social Security only two options are left, devalue the greenback or don’t pay.

When Social Security was established in 1935, the President and Congress imposed taxes to pay the promised benefits. Thirty years later politics had changed.  When Medicare was established in 1965, the government took credit for the popular health coverage but left the payment problem for future generations.

President Nixon and Congress also enjoyed the popularity of they increased Social Security benefits  in the 1970s but left future generations the bill.

The public has not been fooled.  A survey in 1964 found that 77% of the population answered yes to the question “Do you trust the government to do the right thing “just about always” or “most of the time”.  Only 19% answered yes in 2015 according to Pew Research.

Yet what can individuals do other than what we have, voting in new administrations?

Voters attempted to create change in 2008 with a new administration.  The election process and result of 2016 suggests they were no pleased with the results. 2017 and beyond may be “interesting” years.

There should be little wonder that Americans have stopped trusting politicians who promise benefits to get and remain elected but leave the burdens of paying for the promises to pile up waiting to sink the next administration.

This problem has grown so large that in 2011 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit.”

In 2014 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress that more work must be done “to put fiscal policy on a sustainable course.”

If the government does not resolve this problem soon, then the world of lenders will.  If the US has to raise interest rates to continue attracting loans, a downward spiral will grow.  Higher rates create greater debt and greater debt demands higher interest payments. The costs will be catastrophic.  As investors flee US bonds and T-Bills for safer investment, the US dollar will lose purchasing power.

Social Security, if paid and even if paid in the same amounts as before, will buy less.  If Medicare stops working then all that’s left for backup is Obamacare and the private insurers in the plan.

This is another broken promise.  When United Health Group, the nation’s largest health insurer, recently announced that it was pulling out of Obamacare insurance the public learned that it will face higher premiums.  Many will need to choose a new plan, change doctors and hospitals as well.  United Health is not the first or only insurer to quit. A dozen nonprofit health insurance cooperatives shut down just last year.  The giants Aetna and Blue Cross Blue Shield are even considering a drop out.

If Social Security and health care promises are broken that just leaves our pensions. Right?

Yet if we look at the Pensionrights.org website we see hundreds of corporations that have reduced pension benefits including the likes of Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Allstate Corp., Coca Cola, Boeing, Caterpillar, Kraft Foods, Hewlett Packard, Fedex GM and GE to name a few of over a hundred.

This problem is not limited to corporate pension.  An Economic Budget Issue Brief issued to Congress from the CBO (Congressional Budget office”) says:

“By any measure, nearly all state and local pension plans are underfunded, which means that the value of the plans’ assets is less than their accrued pension liabilities for current workers and retirees” CBO.

The report shows that even five years ago the short fall of State and Local Pensions was over 3 trillion dollars, more than all other state and local debt

That leaves the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) as a safety net.  In the 2015 PBGC’s annual report the Director’s message says:  “One of the most important functions of PBGC is assuming responsibility for pension plans when their sponsors can no longer keep them going.  We insure the benefits of more than 40 million workers and retirees.  Currently, we pay more than 800,000 people each month.  An additional 585,000 workers are scheduled to receive benefits from PBGC when they retire.”

But if you look at the first paragraph of the Financial Report in that annual report you see:

“PBGC’s combined financial position decreased by $14,577 million, increasing the Corporation’s combined deficit (net position) to $76,349 million as of September 30, 2015 an all time record high from  $61,772 million as of September 30, 2014”.

Every step along the way we see shortfalls, debt with little hope of repayment and an economic overhang that will eventually create broken promises at every level from the pensions, healthcare, Social Security and most from a falling US dollar.

These facts will ruin the life styles of millions, but not all.

In short, there is risk in even the safest investments and there is a possibility that a negative financial outcome might occur.

This is why multi dimensional business opportunities make sense.  You can profit from expanding your utility.  The US currency may fall but your business can offer valuable, needed services or products that will be worth more than gold.

You can gain from having a source of income in a place where you have the best chances of control.  This is why for centuries… small business have had a home upstairs and business below, so the owner could control their business.

Those who profit most in changing times are those who add new dimensions to old time proven ways.  Modern technology offers many exciting ways to create multi dimensional profit and can earn income at home.

When you have your own business, you reduce the need to place excessive demands on your savings and you reduce the risks of broken promises especially when your have a multi dimensional business with multiple streams of income.

At the end of this report, you’ll find three day special offer that can help you integrate multiple streams of income and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Merri and I aim to create multi dimensional opportunity wherever we live.

In Florida we bought a house and an orange grove next door.  Then we added a rental unit.

In North Carolina we bought a farm, then we added a seminar center, rental units and a trout raising business.

Products and services of essentials, food, clothing, shelter, protection and good health are the real golden assets in the worst times.

Imagine the scenario where our entire structure melts down.  “See the man who has just come in to get some milk for his family.  He stares at the rows for canned milk.  They were empty. Cleaned out.  He closes his eyes.  The world spins.  He snaps his eyes open and checked the rows again.  They are still empty.  He feels oddly betrayed.  Grocery stores are the supports of life.  When you need something you come here.  This is a fact of life in today’s world.  How can he not take this for granted.

“He rushes to the dairy case.  That’s empty too.  He runs to other shelves and sees shoppers piling up food, any food they can grab, throwing entire rows into their carts.  He is pushed and shoved in a mad rush to take any remaining food.

“The man speeds off to the nearest Dollar Store but finds the parking lot filled, lines waiting just to get in the door.”

Just one disruption in the supply line and in a day, the stores were empty. Our modern world is so intricately connected and stores operate on a just-in-time inventory control system.  When you buy anything a computer orders more and it comes next shipment, next day. One glitch in this complex system, one short break and the shelves rapidly go empty.  The barer the shelves, the faster everything goes.

Yesterday everything had been normal. Suddenly there was no milk anywhere.

The man’s tale is imaginary, but the fabric behind it is not, as the real story below shows.

In September and November of 2016, the Colonial pipeline that supplies millions of people with gasoline was shut down.

In November, one simple error caused the disruption.  A track hoe digging for utilities accidentally struck the pipeline, ignited gasoline and caused an explosion.

In September there was a leak (over a quarter million gallons of gas) that caused the disruption.  While shut down, so many people rushed to the gas station to fill up that it created a panic and shortage.

I spoke with the owner of the local gas station we use. He said people were lining up to fill their cars, gas cans and even large tanks in pickups.  He had to limit sales.

A shortage of just about any essential quickly creates panic.  In the pipeline disruptions motorists running to gas stations deviated from their normal consumption habits at the pump and quickly exhausted existing supplies.

There was still plenty of gasoline, but the ability to transport the product to North Carolina (and four other states) was restricted.  Loss of common sense, civility and safety flew out the window within hours.

This was despite the good news that there are two pipes that run side-by-side.  Only one was ruptured, so the disruption was not as bad as it could be.

The September leak, just one small problem in just one pipeline led to days of dry pumps and higher gas prices in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas while repairs were made.

Five states are so dependent on just two side by side  pipelines that their shutdown can create panic for millions of people in under one day.

Merri and I make each of our houses multi dimensional…a home and a source of income from some essential product.

Governments are going further into debt globally.  This creates serious debt and economic problems everywhere.  These burdens mean that governments and societies lose their ability to keep their promises.  Multi dimensional earnings can help overcome the risks these conditions create.

Our website has long shared the idea of multi dimensional business, investing and living.  We have looked at the idea of living as a landlord or the idea of multi dimensional writing and farming or Ecuador farming with B&B, plus Ecuador B&Bs on the beach or in the Amazon to name a few.

Multi dimensional opportunity earns in numerous ways.

Merri and I have always created multi dimensional opportunity in our global travels.  We have united self publishing, seminars, tours, real estate, teaching, currencies, investing and real estate to enhance our income and living.  For example in London we converted a house into an office and bedroom time share. We found special currency deals that helped.

I came across this (one of my first) multi dimensional opportunities when I wanted to finance a house purchase in London.  My business plan was to create a small office-apartment complex.  I would live in part of the house, have an office in part that I would share with a number of my readers.  The deal was aimed at helping overseas businesses people have an office and a place to stay when they were in London.  I set up a club something like a timeshare.  Not quite a timeshare but close enough.

My track record with the bank was good and I had always repaid loans.  Yet the policy at that bank was “timeshares are no-nos”.  I could almost see the glaze come over my bank manager’s eyes as I explained the project.  It was the look that said “No matter what you say, the answer will be NO”.  Once a manager thinks that what you want is against company policy, it is better to do something realistic like climb Mount Everest on a lunch break.  I come from a family of modest means and had no relatives or friends with the cash to start the deal so my alternative was to find overseas investors.

After making the necessary polite motions with my banker and letting him do likewise, I thanked him for his time and was preparing to leave.

Then he said, “By the way let me show you our new American Express Gold Card plan”.  The bank had just started to offer credit cards and they came with a 7,500 pound unsecured overdraft.  He told me that overseas investors could have these as well as local investors and customers.

Overdrafts are a peculiarly British line of credit that allows you to borrow up to the limit of the overdraft without any regular payment plan.  The banker sort of expects to see the amount borrowed rise and fall.  The borrower just pays interest on whatever amount is owed and on occasion the bank reviews the overdraft with you.

At that time one pound equaled about 2.2 dollars so this meant that everyone who obtained this credit card received a $16,500 dollar unsecured line of credit. $15,000 was the amount I was charging each member who joined my London office-apartment club!  I immediately saw how to use this to attract overseas investors.

I wanted 50 members at $15,000 each which was double the $375,000 I needed to buy and develop the property. I saw how to turn my customers into my overseas investors.

My head was spinning as I left the bank.  The bank would not give me a $375,000 loan secured by property.  Yet they would lend my buyers of the club the full price of membership on an unsecured basis.  All I needed was get half my buyers right now on a nothing down pre -purchase deal.  This is exactly what I did.  My customers became my overseas investors.

I hustled out, called my customers and offered them this deal they could not refuse.  “Join our club now and you get an American Express gold card.  The bank will lend you the money unsecured for your club membership.  Pay it back when you can.” 

That was a deal that few overseas investors could refuse.

This was a much better deal for me than borrowing the money from overseas investors to start.  The original 25 sales were financed by the bank.  My customers had to pay the money back, not me.

My clients loved me for this deal.  The British pound collapsed shortly after.  That 7,500 loan that created over $15,000 became much less expensive…. barely $10,000.  Those who borrowed made about $5,000 (33%) forex profit on the loan as well as the good real estate deal.

They made such a profit on the currency change I wrote a report about it and earned additional income from the report sales.

In that real example, I used my writing to enhance a real estate deal.  The real estate helped me promote my seminars and sell a report plus I ended up with a income and a wonderful central London house to live in.

There are many multi dimensional real estate opportunities, land that offers a low stress, healthy home, farm income and other profit potential all at the same time.  Merri and I sponsored many Ecuador real estate tours to help readers buy multi dimensional real estate like Ecuador beach farms that provide rentals and farm income.

When investing and business are balanced the building of wealth becomes a more fulfilling, enjoyable process of service.  Great financial rewards are an extra benefit rather than ultimate goals.  Worries about money become less dominant and we gain an inherent power because we want to work harder and longer.  We don’t need to search (and spend) so much for fulfillment and are more likely to excel financially.

Three Layer Financial Plan

Having our own business allows us to operate at peak performance and create a PIEC (Personal Income Earning Corridor).  Having a PIEC business does not mean you should put all your money in just your own business (though at times you may).  Diversification is always good.

PIEC portfolios come in three layers, first the personal business, then a layer of very safe investments over a third, much smaller layer of speculative deals.

The majority of PIEC diversification beyond our business should be in stodgy, liquid investments such as utilities, CDs, bonds and good value equities.

I prefer Country Index ETFs that provide diversification into entire equity markets.  These investments might pay little in the short term, but are safe and they are highly liquid at a known price.  The low return on these investments is acceptable because they support your PIEC business which maximizes profits and adds comfort like few other investments can.

These very safe investments act as reserves if your business hits a sticky patch and can provide ready finance if sudden business opportunities arise.  They also don’t take up much time in research, accounting, watching the market, etc. so you can devote your energy doing what you love (your business).

However, if you genuinely love researching and tracking the market and have the mentality, capital and experience for it, just being an investor can be a wonderful PIEC business in itself.

The third layer of diversification can be speculative because modern portfolio theory suggests that safe investments are enhanced and made safer by adding a small amount of higher risk deals.  This also allows us to fulfill any casino mentality we might have left if having our own business is not enough.

PIEC investing makes it easier to create and keep wealth.  It enhances our lifestyles now, because it lets us make money being who we really are.  It makes life more fulfilling and fun.

Integrating investing and business reduces the risks of placing excessive demands on your savings, especially if we have an anchor of value.

#4: Find your Anchor of Value.

Find your passion.  Knowing ourselves also helps begin a business with a most powerful business tool I call the Golden Rule of Simplicity.  This rule says there are millions of people just like us.  When we truly see ourselves we look into a mirror that reflects an entire market who feel and desire just as we do.  This is a simple rule yet gives us a finely tuned market research system which shows us how to get create our product, get in touch with our market, deliver the product or service and surrounds us with like minded souls.

Self-knowledge is also essential for comfort and comfort is a vital part of everlasting wealth.  When investors are not comfortable, no profit is enough.  Uncomfortable investors have a never-ending thirst for more that cannot be quenched.  This indefatigable desire gums up the money making process.  Amounts don’t matter.  Even investors with incredible assets suffer this never-ending lust.  A well documented example is Bunker Hunt’s huge losses when he speculated in silver in the 1970s.  He had hundreds of millions yet speculated it all to make even more. When is hundreds of millions not enough?

Develop your investment rules.  Whatever your passion you will need to establish your method – the criteria you will use to select shares for your portfolio.

Whatever your preference you need to establish your key criteria.  Once you have your method working well, improvements come from experience and practice – learning from the successes and failures of each and every investment you make.  The quote “The harder I practice, the luckier I get” applies here.

Know when to sell – and when not to.  A key factor in effective portfolio management is to run profits and cut losses.  This is counter-intuitive for most people because it is natural to want to grab a profit and rather unpleasant to realize a loss.

If you run your profits they can become very big.  If you cut your losses they will always be relatively small.

To understand this approach better, let me ask a question.  What if I offered you a free Mercedes Benz?

You would probably say YES… but would be thinking… “What’s the catch?”  That’s good because we all know there is no such thing as a free lunch, much less a free new car.

Would an answer be harder if instead there was a choice, a FREE Mercedes or $4 million bucks (as in US dollars)?

Most would choose the cash.  Yet of course we would still be expecting a catch.  There is a penny to drop, some risk and the need to ignore the thundering herd and an absolute requirement of discipline.

Let me share a true story about how and why an investor in similar circumstances got the Mercedes and had the $4 million, but then lost it.

The story contains three valuable tips.

Once upon a time, 1981 to be exact, there was a recession. An economic and political mess arose across the land.  The story began with unemployment.  In 1981, the US Presidential election was over, the US economy was hurting and the new government and president were turning on the money printing machine.

This was a gloomy time, those early 1980s.  Really.  That was the worst recession since the great depression.

You often hear that the worst recession since the great depression was the great recession of 2007.  This is statistically wrong.  1982 was worse.

The times were dark and this story begins at the end of the 1980 Presidential election when the US economy was at its worst in 50 years and getting worse.

Our hero in the story thought the stock market would recover, despite the fact that everyone thought everything was bleak and black.  He approached his bankers and asked to make some leveraged investments in the stock market.

His goal was to make enough profit to buy a brand new Mercedes Benz.

He opened the account and bought shares. He used those shares as collateral to leverage these investments with borrowed Japanese yen.

His timing was lucky.  The stock market rose quickly.  The Japanese yen collapsed.  His profits shot past his goal to buy the car.

The Fever

Bubble fever had set in so when the hero’s investment manager called with that great news, “You have enough for your new Mercedes“, the investor changed his mind.  “Let it roll,” the investor said.  “I want to make a million instead”.

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 1 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made a million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make two million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 2 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made two million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make three million instead.”

The investment manager left the portfolio alone and soon the investor’s profit rocketed past 3 million dollars.

The investment manager called.  “You have made three million bucks… really we should take some profits.

Let it roll,“… the investor said. “I have decided to make four million.”

As the portfolio was nearing four million in value the investment manager called.  “You have made almost four million bucks… perhaps we should take some profits.

Let it roll,” the investor said. “I have decided to make four million and enough for a Mercedes.”

Shortly after the stock market corrected and the yen strengthened.  Profits fell so quickly the investor lost a million almost overnight.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost a million bucks… we had better take the profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market fell more and the yen grew stronger.  The profits fell even faster and the investor lost another million.

The investment manager called again.  “You have lost another million bucks… it’s time to take your profits.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

The stock market continued to plummet and the yen rose more.  The investor lost another million.

The investment manager called.  “You have lost three million bucks now…  You really should take the profits left.

Hold,” the investor said. “The market will come back”.

Finally as the market plunged more and profits faded away, the investor, having lost more than 3.5 million, closed his positions and had just enough profit left to buy his new car.

The Mercedez was black and shiny… a big 500 SEL model… king of the road.  The hero never enjoyed it much.

The moral of the story is that when you invest you need a plan, a discipline and to know when to holdem and when to foldem.

Remember that there are always three distinct options – buy, sell and hold.  We’ll look at how to decide when to buy, to sell and to hold later in this report.

Make sure you have some liquidity. You should always keep an eye on the “liquidity”, the ease with which you can sell all or part of your portfolio. If you are invested mainly in big cap stocks you will have little trouble going into cash if necessary.  However, if you have focused on smaller growth shares it makes sense to keep enough of your PIEC portfolio in large companies.

Select shares that can, if necessary, be turned into cash instantly and provide some comfort if the market as a whole turns ugly.

The potential gains on very large companies are not likely to be as high as those from smaller growth companies, but they can and often do well enough to give you a warm feeling.  Remember comfort counts!

Diversify – but not too much.  Your portfolio should contain no fewer than 10 shares, and you could put 10 percent of your money in each of your top selections.  Diversification is essential to reduce risk, but too much of it can hinder performance.

One of the best ways to have huge diversification in a small portfolio is with Country Index ETFs.  These ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

Most country index ETFs are invested in dozens, often a hundred or more, shares.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. With 72 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Australia.

A portfolio of a dozen country index ETFs represents diversification to hundreds of shares and a dozen currencies.

Diversifying into countries is safe because countries  generally do not go away, go bankrupt or become challenged by changing technology and altering markets.

Diversifying into countries is also relatively simple because, there is sufficient analysis of global markets so every country’s stock market can be compared and markets of best value included in a safe portfolio.

In addition these valuations do not change quickly.  In 2016 our portfolio of 20 good value country index ETFs had only one change, an addition of the Turkey Index ETF, in the year.

This low volume turnover gives us time to put our focus and energy on our business and the passion we love most.  Studies over decades suggests that this simple slow trading, highly diversified approach increases long term profits and increases safety.

Country ETFs provide massive, good value diversification at a really low cost.

Most passive country index ETFs have minimal cost structures.

#5: Keep costs down. 

High trading costs are one of the biggest drags on the performance of your PIEC portfolio.

There are numerous costs we need to keep an eye on.

Load fees. Avoid back-end and ongoing load. When looking at mutual funds, we’ll typically see them listed as A shares, B shares, and C shares.  All of these share classes have some type of load.  Avoid them.

A shares include a front-end, a guaranteed loss the minute you buy.  B shares come with a back-end load, a guaranteed reduction of any profit or expansion of any loss.  B shares typically charge 5% if they are sold within a specified time (normally five to seven years). There are also higher ongoing operating expenses for B shares. Fund companies typically charge up to an extra 1 percent a year for B share operating expenses.

C shares charge a penalty (usually 1 percent) if a sale is made within the first year.  They also carry higher expense ratios.

12b-1 fees are fees hard to see internal fees that cover a fund’s marketing and distribution costs. Funds can 12b-1 fees to pay brokers incentives for selling their funds. We should watch 12b-1 fees to make sure our broker is advising this fund because it is a good investment, not because he or she is receiving an incentive.

Management fees. We should make sure we get what we pay for, a good manager who makes us feel comfortable by helping build safety and steady performance in our portfolio.

Churning. Some funds and brokers churn, or buy and sell more than is really required.  History suggests that the less activity in a portfolio, the higher the return. Active management is one thing, but funds and brokers can increase their income with excessive transactions that do little or nothing to help us as investors.

Misallocation. Many investors are misallocated for the benefit of the bank or broker.  There are a remarkable array of unnecessarily risky, undiversified portfolios created to generate fees, and that have nothing to do with a client needs. Beware of complex and expensive portfolios full of bits and pieces that are hard to understand. Low transparency can often be associated with high costs.

Expense ratios in fund doesn’t cover all of the costs.  All investors, whether using funds or not face other costs such as brokerage and bid-ask spreads.

Bid-ask spreads for example are subject to market friction.  Markets are liquid because makers standing ready to buy or sell shares at all times.  They are paid by the difference between what they will buy and or sell for.

Shares that have less liquidity, ie.  Not many buyers and sellers, have bigger spreads between buying and selling prices.

Investing in widely held index funds and index ETFs can reduce this cost gap.  Such investments normally trade within fractions of a cent, keeping this this hidden expense in check.

Trading commissions make active trading an expensive way to increase profits. Trading costs sandbag our profits from the start.

Taxes need to also be considered. Buying and selling quickly increases fees and also creates short-term capital gains taxes.

Be careful of margin account as well. Most brokers will let us borrow money (for a fee) so we can leverage our investments.  This increases any profits or losses created, but also adds the interest cost of the leverage.

If we add up all the potential fees, redemption fees, brokerage fees, back-end load fees, management fees, inactivity fees, 12b-1 fees, transfer fees, minimum equity requirement fees, commissions, the cost of limit orders and consultancy costs, before investing.

We should know what all our fees are.

Passive Funds Usually Cost Less. Because reducing costs is a major factor in investment success, low cost passive funds that do not require high cost managers generally out perform managed funds in the long run.

Over a 15 or 25 year period very few managers outperform the respective benchmarks of sectors where they invest by a couple of percentage points.

It’s an easy way to game the stock market, and getting easier by the day.

In Part Two of this report we’ll look at the more speculative end of our PIEC portfolio.

While we are sharing this report, I want to make a special offer, limited to the next three days, that can help you integrate your business and investing.

We offer two courses for attaining financial security.

The first is our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.  The program contains  a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

You can learn all about this program at How to Have Real Freedom, but do not order the program there for $299 .  If you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course in the next three days, I’ll send you the program free.

I invite you to join me and a small selective group who for the next year will participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value to increase the value of and protect our savings, pensions, income and wealth in good times as well as devastating economic conditions.

Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example, in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you subscribe to Pi you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

Save $457.95 if You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $27  report “Silver Dip 2015” and the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through your own purposeful business and slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” and “Silver Dip 2015” plus the Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

I am so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email me within 60 days for a full refund  and keep the $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program” as my thanks for giving Pi a try.