There are three phases in the economic cycle;
Phase I: Recession
Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
PE Multiples Contract
This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.
Phase II: Recovery
Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Level of Uncertainty
This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.
Phase III: Boom
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
PE Multiples Expand
There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase. This phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.
The chart above is from a recent Wall Street Journal article “Economy Up, Stocks Down? Don’t Be Surprised!” (1). This article outlines one reason why there is increasing danger of a stock market correction.
The article says: Investors bullish about a Trump capital expenditure boom must realize that buybacks, one of the bull market’s drivers, may suffer.
Weak corporate investment has been one of the economy’s great flaws. An expected boost in capital spending—driven by rising confidence, stronger profits and tax reform—is one reason the stock market has soared. But investors are confusing the benefits that rising spending would bring to the economy with its short-term impact on the stock market. A boom in corporate investment could be a drag on stocks.
As the economy struggled to grow, companies lacked the confidence to write big checks, except when they bought competitors. Instead they have been purchasing their own shares furiously. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2.5 trillion on share buybacks in the five years through 2016’s third quarter, according to FactSet. In the third quarter of 2016 alone buyback champs Apple Inc. and General Electric Co. repurchased $11.5 billion worth of their shares combined. Yet the third quarter marked the second consecutive period of declining buybacks compared with a year earlier. In dollar terms, the drop was the largest since 2009, and it could get worse if more cash is diverted to new factories and equipment.”
However… in this boom phase there are better options due to the lack of synchronicity in stocks markets. When the US market drops other stock markets can rise. In fact many investors fleeing the US dollar or US stock market can cause other markets to rise. These investors sell US shares and put the money in non dollar stocks
Take extra steps during inflationary times. Cash can be a really lousy idea.
Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.
An alternative in Phase III is good value non US dollar stock markets.
When you invest in good value, you put the most basic power to work to increase your savings and wealth. This power creates wealth based on when you buy, not when you sell. The purchase price of your investments are the main factor that determines your profit later on.
You can’t just rely on an appreciating market or wishful thinking to create profit, especially when the market is at a frothy all time high. Share prices can collapse at any hour now.
The value of stocks is based on dividends, and long-term increase in value. Value is based on total long term returns. Value is created when well-run companies with strong finances and a history of shareholder-friendly management practices can be purchased at lower price than competitors and at a price lower than is usual.
There are only two ways to build your wealth in the stock market: You profit when share prices rise. Over the long-term, share price rise because business grows or shares are repurchased. You profit from dividends.
Good value shares are those that have the most profits and pay the highest dividends at the lowest price. This is why we track the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management. We can what value means in Keppler’s latest quarterly valuation of developed stock markets.
Which would you rather own, a portfolio that pays a dividend of 3.44% per annum purchased at 1.79 times book value (the MSCI European Index) or a portfolio that pays 2.07% per annum and was purchased at 2.89 times book value (MSCI US Index)?
Innumerable factors, such as the economic cycle cause share prices to fluctuate up and down short term. Long term, only one factor is the motivator of price, value.
US equity markets have risen to all time highs. Better values in overseas developed stock markets have grown. The economic cycle is making the US market riskier and the good value markets even more special now.
See below how to develop slow moving, good value portfolios, that reduce time, effort as they increase profitability and safety.
How Fake News Can Make You RichFake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy. But their is a silver lining in phony information. The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.
Let me explain why…
Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance. This is a global investing fact. The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news. In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash. The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.
Consider these facts. The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011. The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008. India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck. Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98. The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed. In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance. A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.
The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term. This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge. This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.
The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown. By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy. Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.
The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier. Dollar debt is like a short position. When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency. This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar. So they short even more. Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral. The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.
The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985. The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.
The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade. A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.
Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US. The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016. The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar. This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA. This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years. This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.
There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade. America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.
The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.
“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”. I made this promise to myself in the 1980s. A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich. Some of my readers made enough to retire. Others picked up 50% currency gains. I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.
Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!
Now those circumstances are headed our way again.
The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high. So why aren’t average investors all rich? There are several answers. First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend. You’ll see why in a moment. Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.
One final reason why profits have not been so good. Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.
One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system. The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose. They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you. The bank knows that the investment is toxic. To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment. Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.
Three Patterns Create 50% profits.
Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term. This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.
Click on image to enlarge.
Good investments require a relentless search for value. Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.
To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally. Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors. Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies. The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.
From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits. Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.
Click on image to enlarge.
A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58. The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months. Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months. Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough. Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut. You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”
The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value. Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading. Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.
A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs. This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.
A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.
Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market. Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations. There is no attempt to select any one specific share. Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.
Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy. The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally. Yet German shares have been overlooked. German share prices are good value.
For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of .78, a relative price earnings ratio of 0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12. The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81. German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings. German shares pay much higher dividends as well.
Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of 3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%. The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.
Which would you rather buy, a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?
You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.
You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value. iShares investment company for example has an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.
This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.
iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG). EWG rose from $19.70 to $28.13 or 42% in the past five years.
Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market. One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt. This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany. This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market. The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities. Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index. These ten companies are: BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials) 6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN (Financials) 3.66% – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary) 3.15%.
You lump your research. You lump your investment. This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.
Just investing in Germany is not enough. There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom. Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets. With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.
Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar. Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.
The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago. In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street. Profits came quickly over three years. Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51% in just two years. A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.
For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months. These declines are created by currency concerns. When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.
This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago. The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments. I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.
The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000). There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.
Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough. I never thought of that. I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot. This powerful profit wave has begun. I have made the investment myself suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”
Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf file right away.
I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing. If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.
You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” as my thanks for trying.
You have nothing to lose except the fear. You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.
Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.
Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead. Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs that compare their value based on:
#1: Current book to price
#2: Cash flow to price
#3: Earnings to price
#4: Average dividend yield
#5: Return on equity
#6: Cash flow return
#7: Market history
Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.
The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.
The course teaches:
- The value of time in investing and life.
- The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
- Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
- The next great fuel.
- Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
- Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
- How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
- How to protect against pension loss.
- The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
- How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
- How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
- Three common sense ideas: Avoid lines. Go where you are a name not a number. Decide who you are and what matters to you.
- Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.
Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.
Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops. Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power. At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.
This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%. However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.
Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy. The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.
Borrow Low and Deposit High. Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose. The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1. Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.
Never run out of money. Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan. Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk. Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.
Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing. Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies. These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose. The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear. The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.
Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.
In this way we get to learn together. Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi. My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.
Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:
These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.
• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation
In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.
The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.
To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries. These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries. The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.
This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.
Learn Low Cost Trading
Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs. One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing. The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.
In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis.
The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now. This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.
Enjoy Repeated Wealth
Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.
This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets. I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.
This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy. The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs. This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use. Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.
A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market. The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat. Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.
Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required. The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices. Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.
Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.
For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich. Some of my readers made enough to retire. Others picked up 50% currency gains. Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!
I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!” Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.
The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar. The two conditions are in place again! There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets, plus 10 good value emerging markets.
Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.
The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago. The dollar rose along with Wall Street. Profits came quickly over three years. Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51% in just two years. A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.
This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago. The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments. I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.
The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000). There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.
This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.
Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.
With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events. The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV). The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.
These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.
I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times. The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.
The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.
Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.
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