Tag Archive | "Economics"

Economic Cyclical Danger

The time has come to review the economic cycle.  Many economic events suggest we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.


There are three phases in the economic cycle;

Phase I:  Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II:  Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III: Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase.  This phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

wsj graph

The chart above is from a recent Wall Street Journal article “Economy Up, Stocks Down? Don’t Be Surprised!” (1).  This article outlines one reason why there is increasing danger of a stock market correction.

The article says:  Investors bullish about a Trump capital expenditure boom must realize that buybacks, one of the bull market’s drivers, may suffer.

Weak corporate investment has been one of the economy’s great flaws. An expected boost in capital spending—driven by rising confidence, stronger profits and tax reform—is one reason the stock market has soared.  But investors are confusing the benefits that rising spending would bring to the economy with its short-term impact on the stock market. A boom in corporate investment could be a drag on stocks.

As the economy struggled to grow, companies lacked the confidence to write big checks, except when they bought competitors. Instead they have been purchasing their own shares furiously. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2.5 trillion on share buybacks in the five years through 2016’s third quarter, according to FactSet. In the third quarter of 2016 alone buyback champs Apple Inc. and General Electric Co. repurchased $11.5 billion worth of their shares combined.  Yet the third quarter marked the second consecutive period of declining buybacks compared with a year earlier. In dollar terms, the drop was the largest since 2009, and it could get worse if more cash is diverted to new factories and equipment.”

However… in this boom phase there are better options due to the lack of synchronicity in stocks markets.   When the US market drops other stock markets can rise.   In fact many investors fleeing the US dollar or US stock market can cause other markets to rise.   These investors sell US shares and put the money in non dollar stocks

Take extra steps during inflationary times. Cash can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long.  Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted.  They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

An alternative in Phase III is good value non US dollar stock markets.

When you invest in good value, you put the most basic power  to work to increase your savings and wealth.   This power creates wealth based on when you buy, not when you sell.   The purchase price of your investments are the main factor that determines your profit later on.

You can’t just rely on an appreciating market or wishful thinking to create profit, especially when the market is at a frothy all time high.  Share prices can collapse at any hour now.

The value of stocks is based on dividends, and long-term increase in value.  Value is based on total long term returns.   Value is created when well-run companies with strong finances and a history of shareholder-friendly management practices can be purchased at lower price than competitors and at a price lower than is usual.

There are only two ways to build your wealth in the stock market: You profit when share prices rise.  Over the long-term, share price rise because business grows or shares are repurchased.  You profit from dividends.

Good value shares are those that have the most profits and pay the highest dividends at the lowest price.   This is why we track the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.   We can what value means in Keppler’s latest quarterly valuation of developed stock markets.


Which would you rather own, a portfolio that pays a dividend of 3.44% per annum purchased at 1.79 times book value (the MSCI European Index) or a portfolio  that pays 2.07% per annum and was purchased at 2.89 times book value (MSCI US Index)?

Innumerable factors, such as the economic cycle cause share prices to fluctuate up and down short term.  Long term, only one factor is the motivator of price, value.

US equity markets have risen to all time highs.  Better values in overseas developed stock markets have grown.  The economic cycle is making the US market riskier and the good value markets even  more special now.

See below how to develop slow moving, good value portfolios, that reduce time, effort as they increase profitability and safety.


WSJ.com:  Economy up stocks down don’t be surprised


Investors “Nash” Their Teeth

Value investors do not need to gnash their teeth about how to invest when they combine their logic with their emotion.

Learn three tips that can help us make win win investments that are good for others and also profitable for us.   Turn Your Passion Into Profit.   Investments and businesses based on passion are the most likely to succeed but also need value supported by mathematics.  Investing with our hearts and our minds is the best way to make sure we always have enough money and are free from worry as we contribute something positive to our world.

The late John Nash won the 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on economic game theory.  He became more widely known from the book and movie based on his life, “A Beautiful Mind”.  A quote of his shows that he knew more than just numbers.

“I’ve made the most important discovery of my life.  It’s only in the mysterious equation of love that any logical reasons can be found.”  John Nash

John Nash

More about John F. Nash

John Nash understood that the driving force of all things is an underlying emotion.   Math is simply a way of understanding and describing this Universal Emoting Force.

Much of John Nash’s fame came from his work on economics, even though he had little background in economics.  He had taken just one course in economics in the 1940s.  Nash was able to see the working of economics through math.  He used math to see and understand the infinite complexity of human nature.  Because every physical phenomenon, any physical law, can be formulated in terms of differential equations, he saw that math underpins almost everything we see.

One of his great formulas is called a Nash Equilibrium and is quite simple: “The Best for the Group comes when everyone in the group does what’s best for himself AND the group”.

An economic example of a Nash equilibrium is shown in this location problem. Imagine that two ice cream stands, Ben & Jerry’s and Hershey’s, are planning to compete on a perfectly straight beach.  The beach visitors are located an equal distance from each other and want to minimize how far they walk to get ice cream.  Where should each seller set up his ice cream stand?  If B&J locates one-quarter of the way along the beach, then Hershey can locate next to B&J and have three-quarters of the market. B&J knows this and decides the best location is the middle of the beach.  Hershey locates just slightly to one side or the other.  Neither B&J nor Hershey can improve its position by choosing an alternate location. This is a Nash equilibrium.

These tips can help us, a lot, when we invest and/or create a business.

#1: Use the emoting force, we call passion that Nash describes as the mysterious equation of love that creates all logical reasons to drive the business.

#2: Make sure that the investment or business is best for the client or customer and those providing the product or service.

#3:  Look at the value based on numbers.  Let our math doing the walking to the bank.



Magic in Multi Currency Investment Value

There is magic in seeking multi currency investment values.  For example we must beware of the small investor in US shares.

Wall Street Journal Article

Image from last week’s Wall Street Journal article Retirement Investors Flock Back to Stocks

The Wall Street Journal article said:  Retirement investors are putting more money into stocks than they have since markets were slammed by the financial crisis six years ago.  The rising deposits, combined with the powerful bull market that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high on Wednesday, have left retirement savers with their biggest exposure to stocks in more than six years.

This rush of small investors means it is time to increase our caution.

The magic is that with multi currency investments, the sun always shines somewhere.  Seeking value leads to that sun.

Right now US equities are being overbought.  However, the Emerging Equity Markets offer some of the best value we have ever seen.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI Developed Markets Index at the end of the first quarter 2014, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler asset management chart

Click on image to enlarge.

Based on Keppler Asset Management’s valuation and return analyses, the emerging markets are now undervalued by 23 % versus the MSCI World Index.

This bodes well with regard to potential outperformance over the next three to five years for the emerging markets in general.

One way to reduce exposure to the US market and US dollar as you increase emerging market positions is with an ENR Viking managed portfolio.

The managers of the ENR Viking High Risk portfolio  recently took a 5% defensive position in the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 Index (NYSE-SDS).  They feel that the US markets continue to flash dangerous short term warning signals and that it was prudent to hedge some of the stock exposure in the portfolio against the S&P 500 Index, which they believe is historically overvalued.

They also recently purchased the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund and also took a stake in China Mobile in Hong Kong.

They believe that China Mobile is one of the cheapest telecom companies in the world following a dismal string of poor earnings ahead of introducing new Apple smart phones to its vast subscriber base. They think China Mobile is undervalued as the stock trades at book value and sells at just 9 times trailing earnings and yielding 4.74%.   They believe China Mobile provides good value, great upside and a excellent dividend potential.

Learn more about ENR Asset Mangement

Send ENR questions to Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

See how to join me with ENR Management in Montreal this October

Another easy way to invest in emerging equity markets is with emerging market ETFs such as the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund (ticker symbol VWO).  Another large emerging market ETF is iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF  (Ticker Symbol IEMG).

A good bellwether  is to look for funds that have a high and equal amount invested in the nine good value emerging market funds as ranked by Keppler Asset Management.   The good value emerging markets are Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan.

The fate of most small investors who jump in at the top of super heated markets and jump out when share prices are low, stock markets are dangerous places to invest.  For investors who think long term and seek value, these markets are magic, especially when they offer value like emerging markets do now.

Global Investing Rules

Global Investing Rules the World.   Here are seven rules for global investing that can help you get ahead by finding good value..

I think I am a pretty slow learner but after observing investing, writing and speaking about global investments for 46 years (since 1968), I have caught onto a few patterns that repeat… and repeat…. and repeat.

One fact that became clear to me long ago is that no one…not investors… not analysts, not gurus not geniuses, not presidents nor heads of stare or central banks…(and certainly not me!) know what a stock market will do in the short term.

Rule #1 of global investing is “Stock markets are ruled by emotion in the short term and are not predictable”.

Rule #2 is “Stock markets are ruled by value in the long term so are highly predictable”.

Rule #3 is that market timing never works long term.   Value investing works well. 

This is why when I read an article like one in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, my head started to nod.

The article is entitled “Stall Puts U.S. Investors in a Bind Stocks’ Unusual Decline to Begin the Year Reflects Unease, but Nobody Wants to Miss Out on Expected Gains” by E.S. Browning.

That article begins (bolds are mine): After a bang-up 2013, the stock market is starting 2014 with a whimper. The uncharacteristic dip is leaving investors in a tough position: Selling now could protect them from further declines but could also mean they would miss out on the gains most experts are still forecasting for stocks this year.

In the year’s first seven trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.8%. That isn’t a big dip by stock-market standards, but it marks a clear deviation from the norm.

The thinking in this article is far removed from value thought.

There is nothing uncharacteristic about the dip in the US market.

economic cycles

This chart shows that this is the time in the economic cycle for shares to fall.

Rule #4 of global investing is that periods of good performance are followed by periods of poor performance.

Investors who are in a tough position because they only want to sell at the very top, but do not want their shares to drop further and fear that their investments may rise more in the short term are not investors.  They are speculators.   Most speculators (except a few pros) mostly lose.

Rule #5 of global investing is that short term market performance is not important.   Value investors are not surprised to see the US market drop and they do not care very much.  Value investors look for the underlying value in markets. More importantly value investors look for underlying value in shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial for example went from about 14,000 in March 2007 to about 7,000 in October 2009.  Shares of Apple Inc. went from about $90 per share to $190 in the same period.  The market was down.  Shares in Apple rose.

Speculators were crying about the market’s loss.  Good value investors were saying… “My shares are up… who cares about the market!”

Value investors seek good value markets and more importantly good value shares for the long term.

This is why our February Super Thinking + Investing and Micro Business seminar will update the best value equity and bond  markets and share our search for cheap, high quality stocks with rising earnings and increasing attention from the market.

Rule #6 is “Cheap good quality stocks (good value) outperform expensive stocks”.

Rule #7 is that stocks in companies with rising earnings outperform stocks in companies with falling earnings.

Stocks of companies with share prices already in established upward trends are statistically more likely to rise.

Stocks with high earnings and rising earnings outperform stocks with low and falling earnings.

The first session in our  February Super Thinking + seminar looks at shares globally and asks the following questions:

Has the share price been rising?

Is the company’s management good and is its product or service line in a wave of the future?

At our last (October) seminar we saw that these markets offered the best value and it made sense in general terms.

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.40.03 PM

70% of an equity portfolio in

gary scott share list

these major market shares.

The review also showed why 30% of the equity portfolio made statistical sense in these emerging markets in

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.39.05 PM

these shares.

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.38.46 PM

The moon waxes and wanes.  Tides rise and fall.  Stock markets go up and down.  None of these factors are of much value as input in determining your global investing.  Seek good value and you’ll always be ahead.


Stall Puts U.S. Investors in a Bind 

Warning from UCSB Faculty Website

I see these figures from the 1980s as a warning about the US dollar NOW.  The numbers come directly from the faculty website of the University of California at Santa Barbara website.

From UCSB.edu site

Image taken from University of California at Santa Barbara website (see link below). Click on numbers to enlarge.

In a moment we’ll look at why these numbers can show us how to earn a lot of extra profit and more importantly protect our savings from loss. They’ll also show why this warning has a deep sense of urgency…. (right now).

First, let me share a very short story relevant to these numbers. A reader sent this last week and whether you act upon the information we can gain by the numeric warning below…  This story is worth pondering for at least this weekend.

Autobiography in Five Short Chapters
By Portia Nelson

Chapter One

I walk down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I fall in.
I am lost.
I am helpless.
It isn’t my fault.
It takes forever to find a way out.

Chapter Two

I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I fall in again.
 I can’t believe I am in this same place. 
But, it isn’t my fault.
It still takes a long time to get out.

Chapter Three

I walk down the same street. 
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I see it there.
 I still fall in. It’s a habit… but,
 My eyes are open.
 I know where I am.
 It IS my fault.
 I get out immediately.

Chapter Four

I walk down the same street.
 There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I walk around it.

Chapter Five

I walk down another street.

If we have access to history and we can see holes in the street does it not make sense to take a different street now?

The numbers, (I have repeated them below) show the value of the US dollar to the German mark.

The early 1980s recession was the most severe recession (worse than 2009 in many ways) in the United States since the great depression.  This began in July 1981 and ended in November 1982.  The United States and Japan exited recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect other OECD nations through at least 1985.

From UCSB.edu site

The German mark had gained a lot of strength against the US dollar. In 1971, one dollar would buy 3.643 marks. By 1980, the dollar would buy only 1.713 German marks.  Then came the recession and the thundering herd panicked.   A stampede into the US dollar ensued. This was not a good idea but stampedes created by panics rarely are.  The dollar skyrocketed back up to 2.427 by the end of the recession 1982… but Europe and emerging markets took longer to recover as they have after the 2009 recession.  The US dollar continued to rise all the way back up to one dollar buying 3.172 German marks at the beginning of 1985.

This panicked rise was not supported by fundamentals but the dollar rose for five years through and after the recession.

Then suddenly investors looked at the fundamentals of the US economy versus Europe and said OMG!  The herd panicked in reverse!  In the next year the dollar lost all the strength it had gained over the five years and collapsed even further the next year.  The dollar never recovered until… 2009, when there was another great recession.

Now let’s work through the math. 2009… plus five years brings us to ugh… 2014.

Is this another OMG moment for global investors?  The time is near or already here.

The Wall Street Journal said on Thursday  October 24, 2013 in an article enittled “Dollar Sinks; Euro Tops $1.38” says: The dollar fell to a 23-month low against the euro after data showed growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector at its lowest point in a year, bolstering the case for continued economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The disappointing factory data led investors to sell the dollar against most currencies, including the euro, which jumped to $1.3826, its highest level versus the greenback since November 2011.

“The dollar for weeks has been in steady decline as persistent fragility in the U.S. job market suggests the Federal Reserve would keep policy at full-strength into next year, a much longer horizon than previously thought,” said Joe Manimbo, an analyst at Western Union.

A serious dollar correction could have started and diversification into other currencies makes a lot of sense… now.

History is no guarantee of the future… but fundamentals are and the US dollar with weaker fundamentals than most currencies has shown illogical strength for almost five years.

It could now be entering an extremely large hole.  We have walked down this street before.  There is no reason for us to risk falling into this hole again.

Diversify into at least three currencies… now.


Our report multi currency report “Borrow Low Deposit High” shows how to diversify into three currencies at three levels…. $10,000 to $100,000, $100,000 to one million and over one million.

See German  mark history

Bank Where It Is Best… 4 U

Bank, live and take care of your health where it is best for you.  Modern technology and communications means you can choose where to bank.


Jyske Bank… Denmark’s 2nd largest bank. See why Denmark is third safest banking in the world (after Australia and Canada) below.

Yesterday’s message “Trapped in a Strange Place” that suggested “Live, bank in one country, bank in a second and invest in three currencies” brought many comments… including readers wanting copies of my first book “Passport to International Profit” published in the 1970s.  This article attracted more than the normal interest because it coincided with rumors that Chase Bank was shutting down cash withdrawals and international wire transfers.

Numerous websites were sending emails saying:  This is a lead up to capital controls to prevent money leaving the country, forcing businesses to abandon cash or a Cyprus-style bail-ins where the government announces a new “tax” to take a chunk of people’s savings.

One site said:  This is happening! The capital controls begin on November 17th. Bank runs may follow. Chase Bank is now admitting that you cannot use your own money that you’ve deposited there.

Quite a few readers sent notes of panic and I repliedI have been watching this and researched it a bit.  My belief is that a commercial move by Chase has blown far out of proportion.

Keep in mind I have been a multi currency investor and have the majority of my funds outside the US but not for this reason.

It appears to me that Chase offered wire transfers on an account with low fees and are now moving customers to a more expensive account.

My advice for more than three decades has been live in one country… bank in a second and hold currencies in at least three countries.  This is for far more reasons than capital controls…. asset protection is vital yes but getting a wider range of multi currency investment advice is the main benefit in my opinion.

We were the first by far to encourage investors to diversify geographically and currency wise, but we do not recommend making changes in panic caused by fear producing inaccurate information.

I have copied Thomas Fischer in Denmark as he can help you invest abroad.

You can get more information about banking in Denmark from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Hopefully you are a longer term reader and already have funds abroad but not because you think there will be some form of capital control.

Hopefully you are banking where it is best for you… where you get the best service… with the greatest safety for the best price.

Where should one bank?

Our October International Investing and Business seminar looked at how to bank in Denmark and have multi currency portfolios managed from Canada.

One delegate at the seminar wrote:  Dear Gary and Merri,  Before I leave for Panama tomorrow, I wanted to take time to thank you for allowing me to attend the seminar on investing. I learned a great deal about investing, financial management and negotiating in a foreign county. I could not have learned all that I did from your “boots on the ground” training in years of researching. I also received confirmation for what I had been researching and preparations that I am making to be successful in setting up a business and living in Latin America. I look forward to seeing you and Merri in the future. I will be contacting other members of your team in the near future.  Again thanks for bringing me into your most enlightening world.  Most humbly, Sherri.

Join us February 14-15-16 in Central Florida for our next International Investing and Business Seminar.  See details here.

We have been advising readers to bank in Denmark for over 20 years and now show how to bank in Denmark and have investment management done from Canada.

This idea is supported by the October 16, 2013 USA Today article: “11 countries with perfect credit” by Charley Blaine, that shows the three best countries for safety are Australia, Canada and Denmark. (in that order).  See a link to the entire article below.

Here is an excerpt:  A bipartisan deal was reached to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling on Wednesday. While this provides immediate relief, the agreement is only a short reprieve. Funding to the government now ends January 15, and the debt ceiling will only be raised through February 7th.

In fact, Fitch Ratings warned on Tuesday that it might downgrade U.S. debt amid fears Congress could not find a resolution to the raising the debt ceiling. Fitch and Moody’s still assign the U.S. their top ratings (AAA and Aaa respectively); Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. to AA+ in August 2011.

1. Australia

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: 3.7%
Unemployment rate: 5.8%

Australia’s AAA rating is based on a solid economy and low government spending. By 2012, the economy had grown by an average of 3.5% a year for more than 20 years. The government debt-to-GDP ratio was 27.9% at the end of 2012, low even among countries that received top ratings from all three agencies. If there’s a vulnerability, it’s that much of the economy is based on exports of natural resources and energy to fast-growing economies, especially China. Growth in the last few years has been stressed by softening conditions in China, but not nearly enough to threaten Australia’s high ratings.

2. Canada

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: 1.7%
Unemployment rate: 6.9%

Canada’s economy mirrors the U.S. economy. It has a big automotive sector. Technology companies are growing in and around Vancouver and Toronto. It is the largest supplier of energy to the U.S., including oil, natural gas, uranium and hydroelectricity. In all, roughly three quarters of Canadian exports go to the U.S. The country was hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession, first with its automotive sector slumping and then with declining commodity prices, especially oil. Canadian banks, however, largely weathered the economic storm. Also, recent rising oil prices and exports to the U.S. have boosted the economy.

3. Denmark

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: -0.4%
Unemployment rate: 6.6%

Denmark’s finances are in solid shape, despite after-effects from the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. Government debt is 59% of GDP, higher than any other AAA rated economy. Denmark has considerable strengths, including a vibrant maritime industry and a strong pharmaceutical industry. Unemployment, however, remains relatively high at 6.6%, but the rate has come down slowly from 7.4% 12 months earlier.

See a link to the entire article below.


Trading hall at Jyske’s headquarters. Jyske is one of the largest currency traders in the world.

To help readers learn how to bank in Denmark and even have your Social Security payments deposited there, but access the funds anywhere with a Jyske debit card, I have added an extensive section to our Multi Currency Report.   Plus we are offering three video interviews with Eric Roseman CEO of ENR in Montreal, Thomas Fischer in Copenhagen and me.

This new section shows how to set up the bank account… how to have your savings managed in multi currency and how to get the debit card.

Today’s technology for travel and communications has created a global economy.  We are global spenders and should be multi currency savers who bank where it is best for us.


USA Today 24/7 Wall St.: 11 countries with perfect credit

Profit From Smaller Moves

You can profit by understanding smaller moves.

One of the major driving economic foundations of all good investing and business is demographics.

Recent messages have looked at the power of thinking small.  One reasons why this is good advice is that the largest wealthiest demographic wave… perhaps ever… is making smaller moves.

garyscott backyard

These are our New Year’s Day fireworks we enjoyed… nature aflame in our back yard in Smalltown USA.  See how this trend can bring extra profit to you.

On New Year’s Eve we worked from 6:00 am until 6:30pm… watched from our lanai the fireworks bursting above our nearby small town.  We wrapped this up with some quiet reading and by 9:30 we were in bed.  On New Year’s Day by 6:39:29 AM EST I had finished a long meditation and my yoga and had answered my first email.

46 minutes and 2 seconds into 2013 I had my first order and by January 1, 2013 9:18:34 AM EST I had my first 25 orders and had earned my first thousand dollars of the year.

Sounds like we are working hard… but we are not. We love what we do and prefer being at home.  Our work is our passion and is fun and fulfilling to us.

I have always believed that a big part of Merri’s and my success is that we are so common… so much like all the other 60 million baby boomers.  Our secret to success is to “go do things” that we love. When the activity works well we write about it and because we are so similar to so many… the process works. What we love so too do others.  This process makes us look like leaders but really we are followers… of a common heart.

Now our feeling is to stay at home… in small towns… away from the maddening crowd… but still busy with a multi dimensional business and in touch.

If our feelings are spot on… then expect a huge wave that can earn income for you.

A recent Reuters article by Mark Miller entitled “Retirees Moving But Not Very Far” explains a powerful demographic forces we can learn from when it says:  When Harvey and Cora Alter decided to move away from Washington, D.C., for their retirement, friends were surprised to hear where they were going.

The Alters weren’t even crossing a state line. They would move just 30 miles north of Rockville, Maryland, where they had raised two daughters, to Frederick — a town of about 65,000 on the outskirts of the Washington-Baltimore metro area near the Catoctin Mountains.

Relocation in retirement often brings cross-country or big north-south moves to mind, but very few seniors actually go very far. In 2010, just 1.6 percent of retirees between age 55 and 65 moved across state lines, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Richard Johnson, director of retirement policy research at The Urban Institute.

And even among retirees who do move across state lines, migration patterns have shifted in recent years, Johnson says. In 1990, more than one in four retirees between age 55 to 65 who did relocate across a state line moved to Florida — and seven of the top cities for migrating retirees were in the sunshine state. Florida remains the most popular destination, but it only attracted one in seven of retirees between 2005 and 2010.

The increasing popularity of the short-distance move may be a result of the many advantages the strategy offers: Retirees who stay an hour or two from where they worked and raised their children can cut their costs while staying near their friends, cultural events, major airports and medical facilities. Moving outside the metro area means they don’t have to compete on housing prices with people who need to be closer to the city for their jobs.

Depending on local real estate values, it’s a move that can allow seniors to extract substantial equity from the real estate portion of their assets. Many bought their homes decades ago at prices far below even today’s depressed market —- and they are the most likely age group to be mortgage-free: 65 percent of homeowners over age 65 were mortgage-free in 2009, according to the Census Bureau.

The results can be eye-popping when the downshifting involves a move away from a pricey real estate market, according to a review of median home prices from Sperling’s BestPlaces (bestplaces.net/), a research firm that analyzes U.S. communities.

For example, a retiree could sell a home in Montclair, New Jersey, near New York City, where the median home price is $560,800 and move 90 miles to Allentown, Pennsylvania (median home price: $135,400) — pocketing about $425,000 in extracted equity, assuming a mortgage-free transaction and excluding closing costs. Likewise, a 40-mile move from Highland Park, Illinois (median home price: $542,000) to nearby Woodstock ($205,800) would generate around $336,000 in extracted equity.

Property tax savings could sweeten the deal in some situations. Sperling points out that the Montclair house would face property taxes of around $11,300 a year, while the Allentown home would carry property taxes of only $2,580 — an additional savings of almost $9,000 a year.

Perhaps best of all, federal tax law lets you keep as much as $250,000 of the gain tax-free if you’re single, and up to $500,000 for couples. That money can be used any way you like; the rule applies as long as you’ve lived in the home you’re selling for at least two of the last five years.

The cost of living in exurbia is far lower, too. BestPlaces data on prices for housing, food, transportation, utilities and health care show that it’s 19 percent less expensive to live in Frederick than Rockville. Median home prices are 33 percent lower, and property taxes are 10 percent lower.

You can read the entire article at the link below.

Demographic changes are one of the most important foundations of economic change… watch where the retirees in America, Canada and Europe are going.  Tracking their moves can enhance profits in your business and investing.

Merri and I were well ahead (perhaps too far ahead!) of the curve beginning 17 years ago in Ecuador.

See why we believe in extra real estate value and business potential for retirees in Ecuador 

We have also have enjoyed being ahead of the curve beginning 20 years ago by buying into Smalltown USA.

See why we believe in extra potential from publishing in Smalltown USA now.

We look forward to sharing both these demographic economic storms and more in 2013 with you.


Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 


Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the place I have lived.  Everywhere I have been… too numerous to share here, I have been able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from writing.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Sometimes Hugh and I get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like High are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.


You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund . 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.


Reuters article “Retirees Moving But Not Very Far”

The Symptom of Scorn – Micro Business Cure

Scorn… a symptom of social shifts that create one of the biggest… yet almost unrealized… economic dangers we know.


London riots. The face of democracy?


The voter’s scorn?

Entropy is a way of looking at shifts from order to disorder and chaos in social economic systems.

Entropy is the quantity within such systems that is sometimes called the arrows of time.  As time progresses, the entropy of a social economic system never decreases.  Order flows towards disorder at an increasing rate.

Time is the arrow that pierces the heart of social economic order.  The arrowhead is scorn.

Looking back 22 years ago, Merri and I organized and led a tour in Budapest about investing opportunity in Hungary.  We are generally on the leading edge so this was around the time the Berlin Wall came down and Eastern Europe was just beginning to emerge.

One of the speakers we organized on that tour was a young English businessman who was developing a number of enterprises in Budapest.  One point he made in his speech to our group has remained with me.

He pointed out that he could not hire anyone over the age of early 20s.  He explained that everyone older than that had been raised in the communist system and believed that the only way to get ahead was by stealing from the system.  The older workers had dishonesty ingrained in them.  Their upbringing included so much institutional theft… corruption…  and deception that these activities were a normal part of their personal habits as well.

He mentioned that everyone above that age hated the system and treated it with scorn.

That memory popped up immediately when I read the September 28, 2011 New York Times article “As Scorn for Vote Grows, Protests Surge Around Globe” by Nicholas Kulish.

The article shows how the loss of belief in capitalistic democracy is becoming global. Here is an excerpt:

Hundreds of thousands of disillusioned Indians cheer a rural activist on a hunger strike.
Israel reels before the largest street demonstrations in its history.

Enraged young people in Spain and Greece take over public squares across their countries.

Their complaints range from corruption to lack of affordable housing and joblessness, common grievances the world over.

But from South Asia to the heartland of Europe and now even to Wall Street, these protesters share something else: wariness, even contempt, toward traditional politicians and the democratic political process they preside over.

They are taking to the streets, in part, because they have little faith in the ballot box.

“Our parents are grateful because they’re voting,” said Marta Solanas, 27, referring to older Spaniards’ decades spent under the Franco dictatorship. “We’re the first generation to say that voting is worthless.”

Economics have been one driving force, with growing income inequality, high unemployment and recession-driven cuts in social spending breeding widespread malaise. Alienation runs especially deep in Europe, with boycotts and strikes that, in London and Athens, erupted into violence.

But even in India and Israel, where growth remains robust, protesters say they so distrust their country’s political class and its pandering to established interest groups that they feel only an assault on the system itself can bring about real change.

We have even seen how scorn for the establishment boiled over in staid, previously socially cohesive England.  


Jolly old…



A friend who lives in England wrote during the riots: There has been some trouble down the road and we had all our lines running into the house cut by yobs (TV, Telephone, Internet, etc. which will cost us to repair).   We were pretty unsettled about it and have the house on lockdown day and night!  Shutters locked, lights off after dark and the baseball bat has been brought up from the basement (my good old Louisville Slugger) – but mainly I am more worried about being mugged by my utility suppliers – energy and water bills all went up here overnight by up to 30%! Ouch.

Much worse a tea shop where I stop in Clapham Junction was burned down and the whole shopping area was trashed by looters.  What really gets me is all the excuses being made for these people.

Such scorn can change everything because a prosperous social economic system requires belief,  agreement and non coerced cooperation.

Scorn for the establishment has been evolving for decades  and is why since the release of my first book “Passport to International Profit” written in the 1970s, I have preached and practiced being beyond any one system by being a One Man Multinational.

The core message in “Passport to International Profit” is to become a one man multinational with a six point command posture which is to:

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

We have since taken this one step further. To have a fulfilling six point lifestyle posture:

Live in one country you love.
Bank in a second country that is safe and that you really enjoy.
Invest in many countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Earn in two or more countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country that best fits your circumstances.
Take a second residence in a place where you love and want to be at times.

More than 40 years after having lived in and out of the USA,  Merri and I still believe that being global is vital from an investing and business point of view and enlivening for one’s lifestyle.

The key to a six point lifestyle is the ability to earn globally through service.   Social economic systems break down when too many rely on the system rather than their ability to serve.

The ultimate asset is the ability to produce a product or service that others are willing to pay for wherever you are.

George Orwell spotted the realities of nature and depicted them in his 1945 epic “Animal Farm” that described the nature of  everlasting entropy.  Order that leads to disorder that forms the foundation of a new order.

Service however is timeless.  Nations can come and go.  Eras have come and gone.  Businesses, industries and new technologies arrive, boom and bust… rise and fall.   Service, however, is the space through which the arrow of time flies… a weave in the fabric of reality that never frays.  Service is the lift that allows the Phoenix to rise.

Merri and I made the trip to Berlin to celebrate with the people of East Berlin and West Berlin when the Berlin Wall fell…we were up all night with the shouts heard all over the world…and joined with both peoples to herald a new beginning!  It was a very auspicious time filled with joy, sadness, eagerness and all the other expressions of gate that was opened.

Now much of that eagerness has turned to scorn.

However in every scenario… there is also an arrow of profit… opportunities through service in a micro business that creates profit and helps bring a positive impact to the world.

We have created five new programs to help create turn key micro businesses in the new economic era ahead.

Here is how you can profit.


We have two main lists of readers…   On September 28, 2011 one list had 6,881 and the other 19,831.  Added with our smaller lists the numbers reach 30,000 readers so our emails go out to these almost 25,000 readers and the numbers grow every day.

Last year on this date our two main lists had 21,313 readers and the graph below from our autoresponding system shows the steady growth.


This gives all of us… you as a subscriber to International Business made EZ…  an opportunity to enjoy a head start in your own micro business.

These lists have led us to be able to help many businesses that we have worked with for many years. Each has a unique  product or service that we love.  These companies are headquartered in many places… Switzerland, Denmark, Ecuador, Spain, Canada as well as the USA and all of them offer global potential… business opportunity almost anywhere.

We write about many of the products of these companies often… though we are not paid.. but just because we like their products and hope you’ll enjoy them too.

We have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as referrers, dealers and distributors.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

There are two qualifications to join the program…  completing this online course International Business Made EZ and attending an International Business & Investing Made EZ seminar.

After attending an International Business and investing seminar (the next is October 7-8-9, then February  10-11-12. 2012) you will be qualified to enroll for referrer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

Join us at our October 7-9 North Carolina or February 10-12 Seminar.   Click here for details.

We have started the beta program, and the good news is that we are not charging a penny more more.  Our International Business Made EZ online course and our International Business Made EZ seminars remain the same price though we’ll now offer subscribers an entrance to doing business with many turnkey businesses.

The overall service can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

All of our readers are invited to enroll in our International Business Made EZ Online Course and our International Business and Investing Seminar at any time.The Easiest Way to Start Now

Join us at International Business & Investing seminar in North Carolina October 7-8-9, 2011 or in Mt. Dora Florida February, 2012

Read the New York Times article: As Scorn for Vote Grows, Protests Surge Around Globe


Multi Currency Investing Baker’s Dozen

Here is a multi currency investing baker’s dozen ideas.

Every day I get some wisdom from my dad.


He’s been gone from this earthly plane for well over 30 years…I wish we had had more time together as grownups.  Yet every day I start with some wisdom from him because I have just one gift he left me to use.

Talk about being old fashioned, I use my dad’s shaving brush, the one item I have that was his… an “Ever Ready Guaranteed” brand made in the USA that he kept with an Old Spice shaving mug.

I moved up from the old Gillette single blade razor that seemed to skin hair when you hurried…  but otherwise the routine never varies.

Picking up that brush each morning brings back some wisdom he shared with me like:

#1: “The best way through trouble is straight through it.”

#2: ” You make your own bed, so you have to lie in it”.

#3:”Nothing a gambler has is ever his own”.

There is nothing spectacular about these ideas. We all know them… but the gift is that because they are such common and simple ideas they can often be ignored.  The brush helps me make sure I don’t forget.

I realize how comforting such really basic concepts are in times of seeming economic turmoil and change.  They are so fundamental they cut through the noise and stick with reality any place…. any time…. any market.

So may I pass on the gift and share a baker’s dozen of basic ideas I have been taught about multi currency investing in the hopes they can help you during this time of social, investing and earning unrest.

1: We know less than we think we do…and that’s OK.

#2: Listen to those who disagree with us…this expands our horizons.

#3: The consensus may be wrong…truth is not created through repletion of an error.

#4: You cannot succeed without making mistakes…if you opt for certainty, you will die anonymously.

#5: Cheap good value stocks outperform expensive stocks.

#6: Companies with share prices already in established up trends offer greater immediate opportunity.

#7: Stocks with high earnings and rising earnings outperform stocks with low and falling earnings.

#8: Good value, high quality stocks with rising earnings that have gained attention from the market are the most likely to appreciate.

#9: Don’t care too much about day to day volatility.

#10: Don’t care too little about strategy.

#11: Do not count on extraordinary returns. Be realistic.

#12: Do not underexpose (don’t make too many short term decisions and not enough long term decisions) yourself for the long term.

#13: Know that a period of high returns will be followed by a period of low returns.

I hope these ideas remind you of ways that make your life better every day.


On the subject of remembering, don’t forget that we have a free gift reminder service.


Multi Currency Investments – The Darkest Hour

Is this the multi currency investment’s darkest hour when a double dip will increase opportunity?

dow chart

Here is a chart showing how the Dow Jones Industrial Index ended down last week.  See a similar chart below that shows why this could be good news for many.

Since it is Monday, let’s start this week by recognizing that this correction has been suspected and that historical research suggests that this is the darkest hour before the light at the end the global economic tunnel appears.

You’ll see below that the current stock market volatility and economic slow down are to be expected…are completely natural and in perfect order.  This is a time of great opportunity…not of disaster.

This site has continually reviewed the 15 to 17 year economic cycle as outline by Austrian economist, Joseph Shumpeter. The global economy (and US stock market) enjoys an approximately 15 year bull…. then about a 15 year bear (a period of no growth) and then moves back to start a 15 year bull.   These stock market bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.


At our June 2011 International Investing & Business seminar we looked at how the US equity market is currently about 12 years into the 15 year trend.

We then compared the last 15 year bear cycle That began in 1968 and saw that after 12 years from  October 1968 to April 1980  the US stock S&P index had dropped -7.7% in 138 Months.

Then we saw how from the beginning of this bear cycle from December 1999 to June 2011  the S& P was down -11% in 138 Months.

Then we looked at this chart from Moore Research Center, Inc. to see what to expect from June 2011 to June 2013 if that period compares with June 1980 to 1982.   The historical story tells us to expect a large drop.

Notice the similarities between the market in early 1980 (Blue Line) and the current Dow above.  There is a strong synchronicity.

s&P chart

A strong 1999 to 2013 bear?

See how to get a FREE recording of the June seminar and how to attend our October 7-8-9, 2011 International Investing and Business Seminar.

If history is our guide, some great new innovation or innovations will then ignite 15 year bull beginning in 2013 to 2014.

This is good news for retiring boomers who manage not to be wiped out from the next several years of sideways and downwards motion.

This is great news for long term investors who can pick up incredible bargains now.

Here is how these cycles seem to work.

Step #1: An economic downturn enhances a war or threat of war. Struggles for survival in the war (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War (WWIII), super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the Internet.

Step #2: Each new invention helped win a war.  Shifting the technology to domestic use… after the war… created a boom.

Step #3: Each boom leads to excess.

Step #4: Each excess led to a correction.  The correction creates an economic downturn.

Step #5: The economic downturn enhances a war or threat of war.

Here we are… in the correction… at the correct time when we should expect that another war (or threat of war such as the Cold War) should begin to build!  This latest downturn started almost exactly (1998), 16 years after the last boom began (1982)…which began after the last great human struggle called the Cold War.

If the cycle repeats, the struggle should build now due to the poor economy.  If the cycles repeat then the bottom is around 2013. Everything will seem bleakest… darkest…blackest and this will be the best time of all to invest… hence my light suit!

This Morgan Stanley graph shows these cycles.


The key for spotting the greatest investment opportunities is to spot the next big invention… the technology that will spin out of WWIV.

The key is that a problem must have such severe consequences (such as losing the war and being destroyed) that all stops… all logics of return on investment are ignored. Technology and research are pushed full steam ahead regardless of cost.

The key to great success now is spotting the war.  It could be against global warming.  The battle could be against a plague…. new bacteria that resists antibiotics.  A bad year of crops could create famine and the war would be on hunger.

The solutions could be the small stuff (nano tubes) or large sun reflectors tied to earth that generate energy.  Whatever, large or small,  the opportunity they create will be huge.

We are betting on water, natural health, agricultural real estate, good value US real estate and Ecuador real estate… because we understand these.

You should look for innovations that you understand that could rock the world.

If markets continue to fall.  If the global economy stalls.  If there is increased unemployment and turmoil… we cannot do much about this.

We can… if we see what is likely to come, be prepared so we can think out of the box and invest and do business in places most likely to be at the forefront of the next social economic expansion.

These are the times of greatest opportunity for the small guy when the old order that has taken advantage of the system lets go and a new order led by new blood continues humanity’s evolution.


Use our Multi Currency Portfolio Service in the year ahead.

See ways to earn globally with our online courses.

See an Ecuador visa warning and see ways to gain in Ecuador from the turmoil in the Western world.