Tag Archive | "Economics"

Economic Cyclical Danger


The time has come to review the economic cycle.  Many economic events suggest we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.

market-value

There are three phases in the economic cycle;

Phase I:  Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II:  Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III: Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase.  This phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

wsj graph

The chart above is from a recent Wall Street Journal article “Economy Up, Stocks Down? Don’t Be Surprised!” (1).  This article outlines one reason why there is increasing danger of a stock market correction.

The article says:  Investors bullish about a Trump capital expenditure boom must realize that buybacks, one of the bull market’s drivers, may suffer.

Weak corporate investment has been one of the economy’s great flaws. An expected boost in capital spending—driven by rising confidence, stronger profits and tax reform—is one reason the stock market has soared.  But investors are confusing the benefits that rising spending would bring to the economy with its short-term impact on the stock market. A boom in corporate investment could be a drag on stocks.

As the economy struggled to grow, companies lacked the confidence to write big checks, except when they bought competitors. Instead they have been purchasing their own shares furiously. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2.5 trillion on share buybacks in the five years through 2016’s third quarter, according to FactSet. In the third quarter of 2016 alone buyback champs Apple Inc. and General Electric Co. repurchased $11.5 billion worth of their shares combined.  Yet the third quarter marked the second consecutive period of declining buybacks compared with a year earlier. In dollar terms, the drop was the largest since 2009, and it could get worse if more cash is diverted to new factories and equipment.”

However… in this boom phase there are better options due to the lack of synchronicity in stocks markets.   When the US market drops other stock markets can rise.   In fact many investors fleeing the US dollar or US stock market can cause other markets to rise.   These investors sell US shares and put the money in non dollar stocks

Take extra steps during inflationary times. Cash can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long.  Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted.  They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

An alternative in Phase III is good value non US dollar stock markets.

When you invest in good value, you put the most basic power  to work to increase your savings and wealth.   This power creates wealth based on when you buy, not when you sell.   The purchase price of your investments are the main factor that determines your profit later on.

You can’t just rely on an appreciating market or wishful thinking to create profit, especially when the market is at a frothy all time high.  Share prices can collapse at any hour now.

The value of stocks is based on dividends, and long-term increase in value.  Value is based on total long term returns.   Value is created when well-run companies with strong finances and a history of shareholder-friendly management practices can be purchased at lower price than competitors and at a price lower than is usual.

There are only two ways to build your wealth in the stock market: You profit when share prices rise.  Over the long-term, share price rise because business grows or shares are repurchased.  You profit from dividends.

Good value shares are those that have the most profits and pay the highest dividends at the lowest price.   This is why we track the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.   We can what value means in Keppler’s latest quarterly valuation of developed stock markets.

keppler

Which would you rather own, a portfolio that pays a dividend of 3.44% per annum purchased at 1.79 times book value (the MSCI European Index) or a portfolio  that pays 2.07% per annum and was purchased at 2.89 times book value (MSCI US Index)?

Innumerable factors, such as the economic cycle cause share prices to fluctuate up and down short term.  Long term, only one factor is the motivator of price, value.

US equity markets have risen to all time highs.  Better values in overseas developed stock markets have grown.  The economic cycle is making the US market riskier and the good value markets even  more special now.

See below how to develop slow moving, good value portfolios, that reduce time, effort as they increase profitability and safety.

Gary

WSJ.com:  Economy up stocks down don’t be surprised

How Fake News Can Make You Rich

Fake news is one of the greatest dangers to the well being of democracy.  But their is a silver lining in phony information.  The silver lining is that reliable information provides a huge advantage over investors who get sucked in by alternative facts.

Let me explain why…

Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.   This is a global investing fact.  The fact has nothing to do with what’s in the news.   In fact the news, even if its based on integrity is usually trumpeting an ever increasing stock market when its most likely to crash.  The news may be honest, but simply caught up in the moment and wrong.

Consider these facts.  The US dollar has risen 40% above its lows of 2011.  The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.  A lot of news however states that dollar based investments sold by Wall Street will continued to rise, even though the dollar is inflated, bloated, overpriced and destined to fall.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The US economy is a smaller part of the world economy now than it was during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but the US dollar has become more important in global trade. Yet the greenback’s importance has grown.  By one estimate the true dollar zone, America and currencies that move in line with the greenback, covers 60% of the global economy.  Due to this fact, governments and businesses outside the US have accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt that is denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a global financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation, until the energy is spent and the currency stalls and plummets out of control.

The last time we saw such a spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years, then collapsed 50% in just two years.

The current rise of the dollar creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

Strength in the greenback creates a special tension between China and US.  The Chinese currency, the yuan, has fallen 6% against the dollar in 2016.  The parity is near a psychologically important level of seven yuan per dollar.  This makes it hard for China to buy US goods and easier for US companies to make things in China instead of the USA.  This is also true in Mexico where the peso has crashed and in Canada where the Canadian dollar has dropped 30% in the last five years.  This means Canadian workers are paid 30% less when it comes to US dollar terms.

There you have it, a powerhouse dollar in Europe, China, Asia, Mexico and Canada while the USA desperately wants to balance trade.  America cannot afford trade wars with all these countries so a push down on the greenback is his best option.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for us as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.   Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Learn how to avoid fake news cash in on the US dollar crash with Pi.

Pi ignores economic news and relies on mathematically based financial information instead.  Pi researches and shares how to reduce risk and increase profit by investing in portfolios of international stock market ETFs  that compare their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

Pi combines the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience to see facts rather than be swayed by rumor, conjecture and outright fake news.

The Purposeful investing Course teaches easy, slow ways to diversify in good value non US dollar stocks using Country ETFs.

The course teaches:

  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • How to spot and overcome hidden inflation.
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2017. When and how to invest in gold and silver. How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have made smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.

Learn how to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. 

Leverage is one way to add extra profit during currency drops.  Pi reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However, those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Borrow Low and Deposit High.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  Pi teaches how to use this strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Never run out of money.  Pi also has a lesson on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.   Success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

In this way we get to learn together.  Review my personal investment portfolio in Pi.  My portfolio is developed from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are all non US dollar denominated:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

In addition these markets have extra potential from the US dollar’s excessive price.

The Pi course also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal, my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs in specific good value countries.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well providing diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

Learn Low Cost Trading

Pi teaches two optimal ways to buy and hold ETFs.  One tactic is with a unique online broker that offers the lowest cost dealing.  The other approach is with a community bank in Smalltown USA.

In this special offer, when you subscribe to Pi, you also receive an online seminar and two reports that can create profits from the dollar crisis. 

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued picked up a fast 54.1% profit in eight months and the report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the three reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

Investors “Nash” Their Teeth


Value investors do not need to gnash their teeth about how to invest when they combine their logic with their emotion.

Learn three tips that can help us make win win investments that are good for others and also profitable for us.   Turn Your Passion Into Profit.   Investments and businesses based on passion are the most likely to succeed but also need value supported by mathematics.  Investing with our hearts and our minds is the best way to make sure we always have enough money and are free from worry as we contribute something positive to our world.

The late John Nash won the 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on economic game theory.  He became more widely known from the book and movie based on his life, “A Beautiful Mind”.  A quote of his shows that he knew more than just numbers.

“I’ve made the most important discovery of my life.  It’s only in the mysterious equation of love that any logical reasons can be found.”  John Nash

John Nash

More about John F. Nash

John Nash understood that the driving force of all things is an underlying emotion.   Math is simply a way of understanding and describing this Universal Emoting Force.

Much of John Nash’s fame came from his work on economics, even though he had little background in economics.  He had taken just one course in economics in the 1940s.  Nash was able to see the working of economics through math.  He used math to see and understand the infinite complexity of human nature.  Because every physical phenomenon, any physical law, can be formulated in terms of differential equations, he saw that math underpins almost everything we see.

One of his great formulas is called a Nash Equilibrium and is quite simple: “The Best for the Group comes when everyone in the group does what’s best for himself AND the group”.

An economic example of a Nash equilibrium is shown in this location problem. Imagine that two ice cream stands, Ben & Jerry’s and Hershey’s, are planning to compete on a perfectly straight beach.  The beach visitors are located an equal distance from each other and want to minimize how far they walk to get ice cream.  Where should each seller set up his ice cream stand?  If B&J locates one-quarter of the way along the beach, then Hershey can locate next to B&J and have three-quarters of the market. B&J knows this and decides the best location is the middle of the beach.  Hershey locates just slightly to one side or the other.  Neither B&J nor Hershey can improve its position by choosing an alternate location. This is a Nash equilibrium.

These tips can help us, a lot, when we invest and/or create a business.

#1: Use the emoting force, we call passion that Nash describes as the mysterious equation of love that creates all logical reasons to drive the business.

#2: Make sure that the investment or business is best for the client or customer and those providing the product or service.

#3:  Look at the value based on numbers.  Let our math doing the walking to the bank.

Gary

The Secret Science of Wealth

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.  See how Yale University’s research on Warren Buffet’s investing strategy shows the actual science of how to borrow low and invest high.

I began thinking about the secrets of good investing over 30 years ago.  Well, actually I had thought about these secrets many times before that. “Why do some people make money again and again?  What is their secret?”

However, this thinking was super charged about 3 decades ago.  I was a speaker at an investment seminar in the Cayman Islands.  Another speaker was one of the world’s great investors, John Templeton.  Chance put us in the same room waiting to speak.  Then after we spoke chance brought us together, alone in the small departure lounge at the airport.  This was my golden chance, to speak alone, one on one, with this investing genius.  I took it.  “What’s the secret that sets you aside from the rest“,  I asked.

Mr. Templeton (he was not Sir John then) explained that he just did the same as every good investor to stay on top of trends.  But then, he added, his secret was to review everything with a black box… a form of thinking beyond logic.

Then his flight departure was called.  He flew away and I was left, more puzzled than before.  “Hmpf?”  I wondered.  “Knowing that secret doesn’t help.  What’s the science behind the black box?  That’s what I need to know.” 

I remained mystified.  Later the mystery deepened.   I was conducting a book signing for my novel “The 65th Octave”.

I was speaking at a (now defunct) Borders Bookstore about how the core of the novel was the Golden Words.  They helped reveal little known secrets for a more fulfilled life.  One attendee, burst out crying.  That was very puzzling so after the signing I asked her, “Why the tears?

She explained that she had been Warren Buffett’s personal assistant.  Buffett and Charlie Munger had used these same secrets and had encouraged her to use them.  She said those ideas had sounded too esoteric. She had ignored them and left Buffett’s employment.

That’s a clue, I thought.  “The same secrets in my novel can be applied to investing”.

This is when I realized how many secrets of everlasting wealth, may seem mystic but are simply well known mathematics of nature.  They have not been commonly applied in the science of investing.  Only a few investors have learned to apply the science of nature to finance.  This rarity has made these few investors almost unimaginably rich.

One secret that research has now proven, is a most interesting proportion of universal math called the Golden Mean or Golden Ratio.  The Golden Mean is the ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1  (1.6180339887498948482 to be more accurate, but 1 to 1.6 is usually accurate enough).  This rate of expansion is found everywhere-throughout nature.  The Golden Mean controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

Good businesses and investments grow along the Golden Mean.  If they grow too fast or to slow beyond this rate, they face increased risk of loss.

The Golden Mean for example is regularly used in architecture.   Our house in North Carolina was built on the Golden Mean.

italian-villa

It has a base of 50 feet by 30 feet… a 1 to 1.6 dimension on purpose.

The Greeks were aware of the pleasing impact of the Golden Ratio and used it as the core of many structures, such as the Parthenon.

In fact the symbol for the Golden Ratio, the Greek letter phi, is derived from the name of Phidias, one of the three architects, who designed this amazing monument.  Iktinus and Callicrates were the other two architects.  These three used Phi beginning with the exterior of the Parthenon.  The dimensions of the façade represent the perfect golden ratio.  Then the ratio is used in many ways within.

Ancient Egyptians used the Golden Mean in the Great Pyramids of Giza.  The length of the base of the pyramid is approximately the Golden Mean.  The height is approximately Pi.

The Golden Mean ratio is in the design of Notre Dame in Paris, the headquarters for the United Nations built under the supervision of Wallace K. Harrison and French architect, Charles E. Jeannere, reflects the Golden Ratio in several ways.  The windows have the ratio and also when looking at the width of the entire building and comparing it to the height of every ten floors.

“Great”, I asked myself again and again. “The Golden Mean can be found in the human body, nature, solar systems, DNA, the stock market, the Bible, theology, music, artwork, design, and architecture.  That all well and good, but what is the exact science for applying this ratio to investing?

Finally, research about Warren Buffet’s investing strategy published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of how to use the Golden Ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper published on the website of Yale University’s Department of Economics pinpoints this truth.  The paper shows the methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the Golden Ratio to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses the Golden Mean in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

Thus his many accomplishments include having the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk over many decades.

The research paper shows these general features of Buffet’s portfolio:  Stocks that are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  Even so at times his portfolio has fallen, but Buffett waits long periods for prices to recover.

This leaves the key question: What capability allows Buffett to hang on when his leveraged investments are losing value?

For example, from June 30, 1998 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire  lost 44% of its market value while the overall stock market gained 32%.  Most fund managers would have trouble surviving a shortfall of 76%.  Buffett’s reputation and structure as a corporation helped him stay the course and rebound when the internet bubble burst.  Having not leveraged too much because of the Golden Mean is a crucial part of his tenacity.

Another part of his portfolio science  is keeping finance costs low.  His company benefited from a AAA credit rating and was able to borrow funds at such low rates that Berkshire was able to issue the first ever negative interest loan in 2002.  In addition Buffet bought up insurance companies that could provide low cost finance.  Insurance float loans cost only 2.2%, three full percentage points below the average T-bill rate.

Buffet’s staying power also comes from his belief in how he invests and the companies he invests in.  Plus Buffett gets smarter by spending much of his time reading every day.

“Warren Buffet treats knowledge like daily compound interest that builds up as the hours tick away.” 

He combines this knowledge with fulfillment.  He says, “I pretty much don’t do anything I don’t like to do. I’m very fortunate in that… I’m pretty much in command of my own time, but I have a lot of fun doing it.”  He remains mostly disconnected from the busy investing world.  His success is the freedom to wake up every morning and work on something he is passionate about and that leaves him fulfilled.

These scientific facts that many consider secrets are one foundation of value investing course “The Purposeful investing Course” (Pi).

Another foundation of the Pi course was laid decades ago when I read one sentence in a book review of “The Wealthy 100″.

This book, shows the fallacy of working  just for cash. “The Wealthy 100″ is about the wealthiest people in the world (comparing their wealth at the time of their death in relation to the GDP of the USA).  John Jacob Astor was the wealthiest man in these terms as his wealth equaled 1/65th of the U.S. GDP.

The last sentence of this paragraph that shook me to my roots was (see underlined below):  “The stories of the Astors, Vanderbilts and Morgans have been fascinating.  They were not always the smartest, or best educated, but possessed a single minded discipline.  If there were a common denominator it was a passion they brought to business whether inspired by greed or desire to be the best. 

The backlash; many lived unhappily.

How would you feel if in the last 30 seconds of your life you realized you were the richest person in the world and yet had lived an unhappy life?

That simple question led me to years of soul searching and research for that foundation of Pi.  This is why I decided to create a course based my 50 years of  of writing and speaking about multi currency investing.

Pi combines my experience with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists I have met and worked with.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.  More about the gap in a moment.

Learn how to create profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn the Golden Rules.  Pi contains “50 Golden Rules of Investing” that have been picked up over 50 years.  These rules help you avoid the pitfalls that create the behavior gap.  For example, The first golden rule is:  There is always something we do not know.  No investment story contains the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  Every investment is based on some approximation.   This fact means some investments we make will rise in value and some will fall, at least temporarily.   It’s human nature to avoid loss. When investments fall, pride and fear create irrational, unscientific action.  Thus most investors earn less than the rise of the markets they invest in.  The shortage is the behavior gap.

Part of Pi’s mission is to help overcome this Behavior Gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire. By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.

Warren Buffett highlighted that fighting fear is easier said than done when he said, “There is no comparison between fear and greed.  Fear is instant, pervasive and intense.  Greed is slower.  Fear hits.”

Pi is based on an investing reality that very few investment advisers ever cover.  Most investments fail because they lack comfort.

The course syllabus includes learning how to create investments we are comfortable with.

Know Thyself

Pi helps us examine what type of investor we are.   Learn how to create strategies, choose tactics and decide how much delegation to use.

Start with unique personalized strategies that are individual, unique and are based on:

#1:  Our interests.

#2:  Our knowledge.

#3:  Our income, capital and needs.

#4:   Our age.

#5:   Our performance  requirements, (accumulation,  income production or  inflation protection).

#6:   Our liquidity potential.

#7:   Our volatility capability.

Pi examines each of these investing foundations through the examination of a primary Pifolio.

Combine our needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math.

Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends): Michael Keppler, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer (for currency positions) and Richard Smith, PhD (for trailing stop alerts).

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy, it is necessary to construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the overall portfolio.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country. ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent. The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Second, each month Pi reviews modified portfolios with specific good value, income producing equities selected by Eric Roseman of ENR Asset Management based on the mathematical good value income criteria such as:

#1:  Are the shares traded in a good value market?
#2:  Does the share trade at fair Price to Earnings and Price to Cash Flow ratios?
#3:  Does the share pay a good value dividend?
#4:  Does the share have a good value relative to its previous price?
#5:  Does the company have rising earnings?
#6:  Has the share price been rising?
#7:  Is the company’s management good and is their product or service line in a wave of the future?

Finally, we continually look at the Pifolio with a unique trailing stop system created by our friend, Dr. Richard Smith.  His Smart Trailing Stops 2.0 system alerts us to any of the shares which deviate from their good value status.

tradestops.com

Richard Smith received a PhD in Mathematical Systems Theory from New York State University, Binghamton, after completing his undergraduate degree at the University of California, Berkeley.  He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed!

The original Primary Pifolio began with 70% diversified into Keppler’s January 2015, good value developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio was invested in Keppler’s January 2015, Good Value Emerging Markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETF that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these markets.

For example the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

The roots of the iShares ETFs dates back to the year 2000 when the British based Barclays Bank made a major contribution to the ETF market and launched over 40 new funds with an extensive education and marketing effort behind them, branding them iShares.

2016 is the count down year of my 50th anniversary of talking and writing about savings and investments, so the course uses the “50 Golden Rules of Investing”.   The rules are the 50 best investing lessons I have accumulated from five decades of global travel, investing and business.  The stories mostly come from mistakes made, plus some decisions that reaped really rich rewards.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value non US developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with the science shared by my four friends (Keppler, Roseman, Fischer and Smith) can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.

slv share chart

The price of silver has crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).  (Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers can take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.

The speculation is so time sensitive with such fast profit (but also loss) potential that I will only offer it shortly.

Order now by clicking here.  Email me The Silver Dip $27.

Or you can have The Silver Dip 2015 FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save $158.95

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi). The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $27 report “The Silver Dip 2015” free for a total savings of $158.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the first five “Golden Rules of Investing” and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2015” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep the golden rules of investing and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2105” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $158.95.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

 

 

Magic in Multi Currency Investment Value


There is magic in seeking multi currency investment values.  For example we must beware of the small investor in US shares.

Wall Street Journal Article

Image from last week’s Wall Street Journal article Retirement Investors Flock Back to Stocks

The Wall Street Journal article said:  Retirement investors are putting more money into stocks than they have since markets were slammed by the financial crisis six years ago.  The rising deposits, combined with the powerful bull market that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high on Wednesday, have left retirement savers with their biggest exposure to stocks in more than six years.

This rush of small investors means it is time to increase our caution.

The magic is that with multi currency investments, the sun always shines somewhere.  Seeking value leads to that sun.

Right now US equities are being overbought.  However, the Emerging Equity Markets offer some of the best value we have ever seen.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI Developed Markets Index at the end of the first quarter 2014, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler asset management chart

Click on image to enlarge.

Based on Keppler Asset Management’s valuation and return analyses, the emerging markets are now undervalued by 23 % versus the MSCI World Index.

This bodes well with regard to potential outperformance over the next three to five years for the emerging markets in general.

One way to reduce exposure to the US market and US dollar as you increase emerging market positions is with an ENR Viking managed portfolio.

The managers of the ENR Viking High Risk portfolio  recently took a 5% defensive position in the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 Index (NYSE-SDS).  They feel that the US markets continue to flash dangerous short term warning signals and that it was prudent to hedge some of the stock exposure in the portfolio against the S&P 500 Index, which they believe is historically overvalued.

They also recently purchased the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund and also took a stake in China Mobile in Hong Kong.

They believe that China Mobile is one of the cheapest telecom companies in the world following a dismal string of poor earnings ahead of introducing new Apple smart phones to its vast subscriber base. They think China Mobile is undervalued as the stock trades at book value and sells at just 9 times trailing earnings and yielding 4.74%.   They believe China Mobile provides good value, great upside and a excellent dividend potential.

Learn more about ENR Asset Mangement

Send ENR questions to Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

See how to join me with ENR Management in Montreal this October

Another easy way to invest in emerging equity markets is with emerging market ETFs such as the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund (ticker symbol VWO).  Another large emerging market ETF is iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF  (Ticker Symbol IEMG).

A good bellwether  is to look for funds that have a high and equal amount invested in the nine good value emerging market funds as ranked by Keppler Asset Management.   The good value emerging markets are Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan.

The fate of most small investors who jump in at the top of super heated markets and jump out when share prices are low, stock markets are dangerous places to invest.  For investors who think long term and seek value, these markets are magic, especially when they offer value like emerging markets do now.

Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

 

Global Investing Rules


Global Investing Rules the World.   Here are seven rules for global investing that can help you get ahead by finding good value..

I think I am a pretty slow learner but after observing investing, writing and speaking about global investments for 46 years (since 1968), I have caught onto a few patterns that repeat… and repeat…. and repeat.

One fact that became clear to me long ago is that no one…not investors… not analysts, not gurus not geniuses, not presidents nor heads of stare or central banks…(and certainly not me!) know what a stock market will do in the short term.

Rule #1 of global investing is “Stock markets are ruled by emotion in the short term and are not predictable”.

Rule #2 is “Stock markets are ruled by value in the long term so are highly predictable”.

Rule #3 is that market timing never works long term.   Value investing works well. 

This is why when I read an article like one in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, my head started to nod.

The article is entitled “Stall Puts U.S. Investors in a Bind Stocks’ Unusual Decline to Begin the Year Reflects Unease, but Nobody Wants to Miss Out on Expected Gains” by E.S. Browning.

That article begins (bolds are mine): After a bang-up 2013, the stock market is starting 2014 with a whimper. The uncharacteristic dip is leaving investors in a tough position: Selling now could protect them from further declines but could also mean they would miss out on the gains most experts are still forecasting for stocks this year.

In the year’s first seven trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.8%. That isn’t a big dip by stock-market standards, but it marks a clear deviation from the norm.

The thinking in this article is far removed from value thought.

There is nothing uncharacteristic about the dip in the US market.

economic cycles

This chart shows that this is the time in the economic cycle for shares to fall.

Rule #4 of global investing is that periods of good performance are followed by periods of poor performance.

Investors who are in a tough position because they only want to sell at the very top, but do not want their shares to drop further and fear that their investments may rise more in the short term are not investors.  They are speculators.   Most speculators (except a few pros) mostly lose.

Rule #5 of global investing is that short term market performance is not important.   Value investors are not surprised to see the US market drop and they do not care very much.  Value investors look for the underlying value in markets. More importantly value investors look for underlying value in shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial for example went from about 14,000 in March 2007 to about 7,000 in October 2009.  Shares of Apple Inc. went from about $90 per share to $190 in the same period.  The market was down.  Shares in Apple rose.

Speculators were crying about the market’s loss.  Good value investors were saying… “My shares are up… who cares about the market!”

Value investors seek good value markets and more importantly good value shares for the long term.

This is why our February Super Thinking + Investing and Micro Business seminar will update the best value equity and bond  markets and share our search for cheap, high quality stocks with rising earnings and increasing attention from the market.

Rule #6 is “Cheap good quality stocks (good value) outperform expensive stocks”.

Rule #7 is that stocks in companies with rising earnings outperform stocks in companies with falling earnings.

Stocks of companies with share prices already in established upward trends are statistically more likely to rise.

Stocks with high earnings and rising earnings outperform stocks with low and falling earnings.

The first session in our  February Super Thinking + seminar looks at shares globally and asks the following questions:

Has the share price been rising?

Is the company’s management good and is its product or service line in a wave of the future?

At our last (October) seminar we saw that these markets offered the best value and it made sense in general terms.

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.40.03 PM

70% of an equity portfolio in

gary scott share list

these major market shares.

The review also showed why 30% of the equity portfolio made statistical sense in these emerging markets in

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.39.05 PM

these shares.

Screen shot 2014-01-12 at 7.38.46 PM

The moon waxes and wanes.  Tides rise and fall.  Stock markets go up and down.  None of these factors are of much value as input in determining your global investing.  Seek good value and you’ll always be ahead.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Learn about multi currency stock market breakouts at our Online Value Investing Seminar and save $502 or more.

The Value Investing Seminar is our premier course that we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years.  Now you can join the seminar online.

Multi Currency Seminar

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is 50% higher than before the recession and there is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Learn how to use value as a guide for spotting these breakouts that create fortunes.

Sign up for our current Value Investing Seminar and learn the latest breakout possibilities in global equities, currencies, real estate and commodities.

For example the seminar shows the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.

singapore dollar chart

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

The US dollar has been rising without valid economic reasons versus the Singapore dollar since the middle of 2011.  The rise has been especially strong since mid 2014.  This currency distortion creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak.  This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share in this seminar.

Here are the currency fundamentals:

US GDP Growth last year: 2.2%

Singapore GDP Growth last year: 2.9%

US current account balance for last year:  -$758 billion or -2.5% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year: +$49 billion or +21.2% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year:  -2.6%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year was a low: -0.7%

US Unemployment: 5%

Singapore Unemployment: 2.0%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds:  2.19%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds: 2.57%

These are economic signs of a currency’s strength.  They show a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Where to Invest

The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.

For example almost anyone can invest in the Currency Shares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG)  managed by Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the Currency Shares brand.

These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.

One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG).  The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar.  This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years.  The simple reason for this is that we aim for the really big profits earned at the start of a breakout.

In 2016 I want to kick off the year with you and share why I have confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.

Here is a partial syllabus of this online seminar:

International & Value Investing Outside the Box.  This session shows how to take advantage of unusual currency breakouts.

Here is an example.  At our October 2012 seminar we told delegates that the Japanese yen was too strong and was likely to weaken early in the next year. In the next six months, the US dollar rose 13% against the yen.  On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Delegates who acted and sold the yen short picked up an extra 13% forex profit in nine months.

There is a second way they could have earned.  They could have borrowed Japanese yen at a low interest rate (2.5%) and invested the borrowed yen into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

In this example $100,000 was invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000, 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%.

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.

yahoo finance chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose $25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words, the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.

The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.

How to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Details in the seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation   xxxxxx

The seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799.   Now because we have conducted the Value Investing Seminar online, you can save  thousands.  With the webinar, you save the cost of travel and accommodations, plus due to the fact that we don’t have to hire an expensive seminar room, we have dropped the fee from $799 to $297.  You save $502 on the fee alone plus eliminate the cost of travel and accommodations.

Enroll in the current Online Value Investing Seminar for only $297.

You can sign up for all three of the seminars that we’ll conduct this year and save even more.  As markets change we update the Value Investing Seminar, every four months, October, February, May.  Then we conduct the seminar in person in July or August.   The seminar available now has just been updated from our October 2015 seminar.

We have a special program for those who would like to join two, or all three of the seminars.

Two online Value Investing Seminars seminars: $397.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February 2016 seminar online.

All online Value Investing Seminars in 2016 $447.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February and May 2016 seminar online.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

(3)  www.finance.yahoo.com currency charts

 

Stall Puts U.S. Investors in a Bind 

Warning from UCSB Faculty Website


I see these figures from the 1980s as a warning about the US dollar NOW.  The numbers come directly from the faculty website of the University of California at Santa Barbara website.

From UCSB.edu site

Image taken from University of California at Santa Barbara website (see link below). Click on numbers to enlarge.

In a moment we’ll look at why these numbers can show us how to earn a lot of extra profit and more importantly protect our savings from loss. They’ll also show why this warning has a deep sense of urgency…. (right now).

First, let me share a very short story relevant to these numbers. A reader sent this last week and whether you act upon the information we can gain by the numeric warning below…  This story is worth pondering for at least this weekend.

Autobiography in Five Short Chapters
By Portia Nelson

Chapter One

I walk down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I fall in.
I am lost.
I am helpless.
It isn’t my fault.
It takes forever to find a way out.

Chapter Two


I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I fall in again.
 I can’t believe I am in this same place. 
But, it isn’t my fault.
It still takes a long time to get out.

Chapter Three

I walk down the same street. 
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I see it there.
 I still fall in. It’s a habit… but,
 My eyes are open.
 I know where I am.
 It IS my fault.
 I get out immediately.

Chapter Four

I walk down the same street.
 There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. 
I walk around it.

Chapter Five

I walk down another street.

If we have access to history and we can see holes in the street does it not make sense to take a different street now?

The numbers, (I have repeated them below) show the value of the US dollar to the German mark.

The early 1980s recession was the most severe recession (worse than 2009 in many ways) in the United States since the great depression.  This began in July 1981 and ended in November 1982.  The United States and Japan exited recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect other OECD nations through at least 1985.

From UCSB.edu site

The German mark had gained a lot of strength against the US dollar. In 1971, one dollar would buy 3.643 marks. By 1980, the dollar would buy only 1.713 German marks.  Then came the recession and the thundering herd panicked.   A stampede into the US dollar ensued. This was not a good idea but stampedes created by panics rarely are.  The dollar skyrocketed back up to 2.427 by the end of the recession 1982… but Europe and emerging markets took longer to recover as they have after the 2009 recession.  The US dollar continued to rise all the way back up to one dollar buying 3.172 German marks at the beginning of 1985.

This panicked rise was not supported by fundamentals but the dollar rose for five years through and after the recession.

Then suddenly investors looked at the fundamentals of the US economy versus Europe and said OMG!  The herd panicked in reverse!  In the next year the dollar lost all the strength it had gained over the five years and collapsed even further the next year.  The dollar never recovered until… 2009, when there was another great recession.

Now let’s work through the math. 2009… plus five years brings us to ugh… 2014.

Is this another OMG moment for global investors?  The time is near or already here.

The Wall Street Journal said on Thursday  October 24, 2013 in an article enittled “Dollar Sinks; Euro Tops $1.38” says: The dollar fell to a 23-month low against the euro after data showed growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector at its lowest point in a year, bolstering the case for continued economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The disappointing factory data led investors to sell the dollar against most currencies, including the euro, which jumped to $1.3826, its highest level versus the greenback since November 2011.

“The dollar for weeks has been in steady decline as persistent fragility in the U.S. job market suggests the Federal Reserve would keep policy at full-strength into next year, a much longer horizon than previously thought,” said Joe Manimbo, an analyst at Western Union.

A serious dollar correction could have started and diversification into other currencies makes a lot of sense… now.

History is no guarantee of the future… but fundamentals are and the US dollar with weaker fundamentals than most currencies has shown illogical strength for almost five years.

It could now be entering an extremely large hole.  We have walked down this street before.  There is no reason for us to risk falling into this hole again.

Diversify into at least three currencies… now.

Gary

Our report multi currency report “Borrow Low Deposit High” shows how to diversify into three currencies at three levels…. $10,000 to $100,000, $100,000 to one million and over one million.

Multi Currency Value Investment Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Learn about multi currency stock market breakouts at our Online Value Investing Seminar and save $502 or more.

The Value Investing Seminar is our premier course that we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years.  Now you can join the seminar online.

Multi Currency Seminar

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is 50% higher than before the recession and there is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Learn how to use value as a guide for spotting these breakouts that create fortunes.

Sign up for our current Value Investing Seminar and learn the latest breakout possibilities in global equities, currencies, real estate and commodities.

For example the seminar shows the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.

singapore dollar chart

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

The US dollar has been rising without valid economic reasons versus the Singapore dollar since the middle of 2011.  The rise has been especially strong since mid 2014.  This currency distortion creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak.  This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share in this seminar.

Here are the currency fundamentals:

US GDP Growth last year: 2.2%

Singapore GDP Growth last year: 2.9%

US current account balance for last year:  -$758 billion or -2.5% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year: +$49 billion or +21.2% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year:  -2.6%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year was a low: -0.7%

US Unemployment: 5%

Singapore Unemployment: 2.0%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds:  2.19%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds: 2.57%

These are economic signs of a currency’s strength.  They show a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Where to Invest

The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.

For example almost anyone can invest in the Currency Shares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG)  managed by Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the Currency Shares brand.

These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.

One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG).  The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar.  This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years.  The simple reason for this is that we aim for the really big profits earned at the start of a breakout.

In 2016 I want to kick off the year with you and share why I have confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.

Here is a partial syllabus of this online seminar:

International & Value Investing Outside the Box.  This session shows how to take advantage of unusual currency breakouts.

Here is an example.  At our October 2012 seminar we told delegates that the Japanese yen was too strong and was likely to weaken early in the next year. In the next six months, the US dollar rose 13% against the yen.  On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Delegates who acted and sold the yen short picked up an extra 13% forex profit in nine months.

There is a second way they could have earned.  They could have borrowed Japanese yen at a low interest rate (2.5%) and invested the borrowed yen into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

In this example $100,000 was invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000, 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%.

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.

yahoo finance chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose $25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words, the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.

The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.

How to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Details in the seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation   xxxxxx

The seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799.   Now because we have conducted the Value Investing Seminar online, you can save  thousands.  With the webinar, you save the cost of travel and accommodations, plus due to the fact that we don’t have to hire an expensive seminar room, we have dropped the fee from $799 to $297.  You save $502 on the fee alone plus eliminate the cost of travel and accommodations.

Enroll in the current Online Value Investing Seminar for only $297.

You can sign up for all three of the seminars that we’ll conduct this year and save even more.  As markets change we update the Value Investing Seminar, every four months, October, February, May.  Then we conduct the seminar in person in July or August.   The seminar available now has just been updated from our October 2015 seminar.

We have a special program for those who would like to join two, or all three of the seminars.

Two online Value Investing Seminars seminars: $397.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February 2016 seminar online.

All online Value Investing Seminars in 2016 $447.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February and May 2016 seminar online.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

(3)  www.finance.yahoo.com currency charts

 

 

 

 

See German  mark history

Bank Where It Is Best… 4 U


Bank, live and take care of your health where it is best for you.  Modern technology and communications means you can choose where to bank.

jyske-bank

Jyske Bank… Denmark’s 2nd largest bank. See why Denmark is third safest banking in the world (after Australia and Canada) below.

Yesterday’s message “Trapped in a Strange Place” that suggested “Live, bank in one country, bank in a second and invest in three currencies” brought many comments… including readers wanting copies of my first book “Passport to International Profit” published in the 1970s.  This article attracted more than the normal interest because it coincided with rumors that Chase Bank was shutting down cash withdrawals and international wire transfers.

Numerous websites were sending emails saying:  This is a lead up to capital controls to prevent money leaving the country, forcing businesses to abandon cash or a Cyprus-style bail-ins where the government announces a new “tax” to take a chunk of people’s savings.

One site said:  This is happening! The capital controls begin on November 17th. Bank runs may follow. Chase Bank is now admitting that you cannot use your own money that you’ve deposited there.

Quite a few readers sent notes of panic and I repliedI have been watching this and researched it a bit.  My belief is that a commercial move by Chase has blown far out of proportion.

Keep in mind I have been a multi currency investor and have the majority of my funds outside the US but not for this reason.

It appears to me that Chase offered wire transfers on an account with low fees and are now moving customers to a more expensive account.

My advice for more than three decades has been live in one country… bank in a second and hold currencies in at least three countries.  This is for far more reasons than capital controls…. asset protection is vital yes but getting a wider range of multi currency investment advice is the main benefit in my opinion.

We were the first by far to encourage investors to diversify geographically and currency wise, but we do not recommend making changes in panic caused by fear producing inaccurate information.

I have copied Thomas Fischer in Denmark as he can help you invest abroad.

You can get more information about banking in Denmark from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Hopefully you are a longer term reader and already have funds abroad but not because you think there will be some form of capital control.

Hopefully you are banking where it is best for you… where you get the best service… with the greatest safety for the best price.

Where should one bank?

Our October International Investing and Business seminar looked at how to bank in Denmark and have multi currency portfolios managed from Canada.

One delegate at the seminar wrote:  Dear Gary and Merri,  Before I leave for Panama tomorrow, I wanted to take time to thank you for allowing me to attend the seminar on investing. I learned a great deal about investing, financial management and negotiating in a foreign county. I could not have learned all that I did from your “boots on the ground” training in years of researching. I also received confirmation for what I had been researching and preparations that I am making to be successful in setting up a business and living in Latin America. I look forward to seeing you and Merri in the future. I will be contacting other members of your team in the near future.  Again thanks for bringing me into your most enlightening world.  Most humbly, Sherri.

Join us February 14-15-16 in Central Florida for our next International Investing and Business Seminar.  See details here.

We have been advising readers to bank in Denmark for over 20 years and now show how to bank in Denmark and have investment management done from Canada.

This idea is supported by the October 16, 2013 USA Today article: “11 countries with perfect credit” by Charley Blaine, that shows the three best countries for safety are Australia, Canada and Denmark. (in that order).  See a link to the entire article below.

Here is an excerpt:  A bipartisan deal was reached to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling on Wednesday. While this provides immediate relief, the agreement is only a short reprieve. Funding to the government now ends January 15, and the debt ceiling will only be raised through February 7th.

In fact, Fitch Ratings warned on Tuesday that it might downgrade U.S. debt amid fears Congress could not find a resolution to the raising the debt ceiling. Fitch and Moody’s still assign the U.S. their top ratings (AAA and Aaa respectively); Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. to AA+ in August 2011.

1. Australia

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: 3.7%
Unemployment rate: 5.8%

Australia’s AAA rating is based on a solid economy and low government spending. By 2012, the economy had grown by an average of 3.5% a year for more than 20 years. The government debt-to-GDP ratio was 27.9% at the end of 2012, low even among countries that received top ratings from all three agencies. If there’s a vulnerability, it’s that much of the economy is based on exports of natural resources and energy to fast-growing economies, especially China. Growth in the last few years has been stressed by softening conditions in China, but not nearly enough to threaten Australia’s high ratings.

2. Canada

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: 1.7%
Unemployment rate: 6.9%

Canada’s economy mirrors the U.S. economy. It has a big automotive sector. Technology companies are growing in and around Vancouver and Toronto. It is the largest supplier of energy to the U.S., including oil, natural gas, uranium and hydroelectricity. In all, roughly three quarters of Canadian exports go to the U.S. The country was hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession, first with its automotive sector slumping and then with declining commodity prices, especially oil. Canadian banks, however, largely weathered the economic storm. Also, recent rising oil prices and exports to the U.S. have boosted the economy.

3. Denmark

S&P/Moody’s ratings: AAA/Aaa
S&P/Moody’s outlook: stable/stable
2012 GDP growth: -0.4%
Unemployment rate: 6.6%

Denmark’s finances are in solid shape, despite after-effects from the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. Government debt is 59% of GDP, higher than any other AAA rated economy. Denmark has considerable strengths, including a vibrant maritime industry and a strong pharmaceutical industry. Unemployment, however, remains relatively high at 6.6%, but the rate has come down slowly from 7.4% 12 months earlier.

See a link to the entire article below.

Jyske-bank

Trading hall at Jyske’s headquarters. Jyske is one of the largest currency traders in the world.

To help readers learn how to bank in Denmark and even have your Social Security payments deposited there, but access the funds anywhere with a Jyske debit card, I have added an extensive section to our Multi Currency Report.   Plus we are offering three video interviews with Eric Roseman CEO of ENR in Montreal, Thomas Fischer in Copenhagen and me.

This new section shows how to set up the bank account… how to have your savings managed in multi currency and how to get the debit card.

Today’s technology for travel and communications has created a global economy.  We are global spenders and should be multi currency savers who bank where it is best for us.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investment Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Learn about multi currency stock market breakouts at our Online Value Investing Seminar and save $502 or more.

The Value Investing Seminar is our premier course that we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years.  Now you can join the seminar online.

Multi Currency Seminar

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is 50% higher than before the recession and there is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Learn how to use value as a guide for spotting these breakouts that create fortunes.

Sign up for our current Value Investing Seminar and learn the latest breakout possibilities in global equities, currencies, real estate and commodities.

For example the seminar shows the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.

singapore dollar chart

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

The US dollar has been rising without valid economic reasons versus the Singapore dollar since the middle of 2011.  The rise has been especially strong since mid 2014.  This currency distortion creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak.  This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share in this seminar.

Here are the currency fundamentals:

US GDP Growth last year: 2.2%

Singapore GDP Growth last year: 2.9%

US current account balance for last year:  -$758 billion or -2.5% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year: +$49 billion or +21.2% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year:  -2.6%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year was a low: -0.7%

US Unemployment: 5%

Singapore Unemployment: 2.0%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds:  2.19%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds: 2.57%

These are economic signs of a currency’s strength.  They show a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Where to Invest

The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.

For example almost anyone can invest in the Currency Shares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG)  managed by Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the Currency Shares brand.

These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.

One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG).  The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar.  This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years.  The simple reason for this is that we aim for the really big profits earned at the start of a breakout.

In 2016 I want to kick off the year with you and share why I have confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.

Here is a partial syllabus of this online seminar:

International & Value Investing Outside the Box.  This session shows how to take advantage of unusual currency breakouts.

Here is an example.  At our October 2012 seminar we told delegates that the Japanese yen was too strong and was likely to weaken early in the next year. In the next six months, the US dollar rose 13% against the yen.  On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Delegates who acted and sold the yen short picked up an extra 13% forex profit in nine months.

There is a second way they could have earned.  They could have borrowed Japanese yen at a low interest rate (2.5%) and invested the borrowed yen into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

In this example $100,000 was invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000, 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%.

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.

yahoo finance chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose $25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words, the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.

The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.

How to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Details in the seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation   xxxxxx

The seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799.   Now because we have conducted the Value Investing Seminar online, you can save  thousands.  With the webinar, you save the cost of travel and accommodations, plus due to the fact that we don’t have to hire an expensive seminar room, we have dropped the fee from $799 to $297.  You save $502 on the fee alone plus eliminate the cost of travel and accommodations.

Enroll in the current Online Value Investing Seminar for only $297.

You can sign up for all three of the seminars that we’ll conduct this year and save even more.  As markets change we update the Value Investing Seminar, every four months, October, February, May.  Then we conduct the seminar in person in July or August.   The seminar available now has just been updated from our October 2015 seminar.

We have a special program for those who would like to join two, or all three of the seminars.

Two online Value Investing Seminars seminars: $397.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February 2016 seminar online.

All online Value Investing Seminars in 2016 $447.  You receive the updated October 2015 seminar now and the February and May 2016 seminar online.

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

(3)  www.finance.yahoo.com currency charts

 

 

 

 

USA Today 24/7 Wall St.: 11 countries with perfect credit

Profit From Smaller Moves


You can profit by understanding smaller moves.

One of the major driving economic foundations of all good investing and business is demographics.

Recent messages have looked at the power of thinking small.  One reasons why this is good advice is that the largest wealthiest demographic wave… perhaps ever… is making smaller moves.

garyscott backyard

These are our New Year’s Day fireworks we enjoyed… nature aflame in our back yard in Smalltown USA.  See how this trend can bring extra profit to you.

On New Year’s Eve we worked from 6:00 am until 6:30pm… watched from our lanai the fireworks bursting above our nearby small town.  We wrapped this up with some quiet reading and by 9:30 we were in bed.  On New Year’s Day by 6:39:29 AM EST I had finished a long meditation and my yoga and had answered my first email.

46 minutes and 2 seconds into 2013 I had my first order and by January 1, 2013 9:18:34 AM EST I had my first 25 orders and had earned my first thousand dollars of the year.

Sounds like we are working hard… but we are not. We love what we do and prefer being at home.  Our work is our passion and is fun and fulfilling to us.

I have always believed that a big part of Merri’s and my success is that we are so common… so much like all the other 60 million baby boomers.  Our secret to success is to “go do things” that we love. When the activity works well we write about it and because we are so similar to so many… the process works. What we love so too do others.  This process makes us look like leaders but really we are followers… of a common heart.

Now our feeling is to stay at home… in small towns… away from the maddening crowd… but still busy with a multi dimensional business and in touch.

If our feelings are spot on… then expect a huge wave that can earn income for you.

A recent Reuters article by Mark Miller entitled “Retirees Moving But Not Very Far” explains a powerful demographic forces we can learn from when it says:  When Harvey and Cora Alter decided to move away from Washington, D.C., for their retirement, friends were surprised to hear where they were going.

The Alters weren’t even crossing a state line. They would move just 30 miles north of Rockville, Maryland, where they had raised two daughters, to Frederick — a town of about 65,000 on the outskirts of the Washington-Baltimore metro area near the Catoctin Mountains.

Relocation in retirement often brings cross-country or big north-south moves to mind, but very few seniors actually go very far. In 2010, just 1.6 percent of retirees between age 55 and 65 moved across state lines, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Richard Johnson, director of retirement policy research at The Urban Institute.

And even among retirees who do move across state lines, migration patterns have shifted in recent years, Johnson says. In 1990, more than one in four retirees between age 55 to 65 who did relocate across a state line moved to Florida — and seven of the top cities for migrating retirees were in the sunshine state. Florida remains the most popular destination, but it only attracted one in seven of retirees between 2005 and 2010.

The increasing popularity of the short-distance move may be a result of the many advantages the strategy offers: Retirees who stay an hour or two from where they worked and raised their children can cut their costs while staying near their friends, cultural events, major airports and medical facilities. Moving outside the metro area means they don’t have to compete on housing prices with people who need to be closer to the city for their jobs.

Depending on local real estate values, it’s a move that can allow seniors to extract substantial equity from the real estate portion of their assets. Many bought their homes decades ago at prices far below even today’s depressed market —- and they are the most likely age group to be mortgage-free: 65 percent of homeowners over age 65 were mortgage-free in 2009, according to the Census Bureau.

The results can be eye-popping when the downshifting involves a move away from a pricey real estate market, according to a review of median home prices from Sperling’s BestPlaces (bestplaces.net/), a research firm that analyzes U.S. communities.

For example, a retiree could sell a home in Montclair, New Jersey, near New York City, where the median home price is $560,800 and move 90 miles to Allentown, Pennsylvania (median home price: $135,400) — pocketing about $425,000 in extracted equity, assuming a mortgage-free transaction and excluding closing costs. Likewise, a 40-mile move from Highland Park, Illinois (median home price: $542,000) to nearby Woodstock ($205,800) would generate around $336,000 in extracted equity.

Property tax savings could sweeten the deal in some situations. Sperling points out that the Montclair house would face property taxes of around $11,300 a year, while the Allentown home would carry property taxes of only $2,580 — an additional savings of almost $9,000 a year.

Perhaps best of all, federal tax law lets you keep as much as $250,000 of the gain tax-free if you’re single, and up to $500,000 for couples. That money can be used any way you like; the rule applies as long as you’ve lived in the home you’re selling for at least two of the last five years.

The cost of living in exurbia is far lower, too. BestPlaces data on prices for housing, food, transportation, utilities and health care show that it’s 19 percent less expensive to live in Frederick than Rockville. Median home prices are 33 percent lower, and property taxes are 10 percent lower.

You can read the entire article at the link below.

Demographic changes are one of the most important foundations of economic change… watch where the retirees in America, Canada and Europe are going.  Tracking their moves can enhance profits in your business and investing.

Merri and I were well ahead (perhaps too far ahead!) of the curve beginning 17 years ago in Ecuador.

See why we believe in extra real estate value and business potential for retirees in Ecuador 

We have also have enjoyed being ahead of the curve beginning 20 years ago by buying into Smalltown USA.

See why we believe in extra potential from publishing in Smalltown USA now.

We look forward to sharing both these demographic economic storms and more in 2013 with you.

Gary

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

Here are seven secrets that can help you earn as a writer and self publisher.  

gary scott

When you write, you can work anywhere.  Here I am working in my greenhouse.

Gain the freedom  to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.

These seven secrets are important because growing numbers of unknown writers have become famous writers and rich by self publishing over the internet.

Take for example Amanda Hocking.  After self publishing her first book at Amazon.com in the spring of 2010 she became one of the the best-selling e-authors. In the next year her book sales grossed approximately $2 million.

In 2011, St. Martin’s press paid Hocking more than $2 million for the world English rights of a four book series.  In 2013 she sold another series to St. Martin’s Press.

E.L. James is another such story.  She sold 250,000 copies of “50 Shades” via Createspace and Amazon.com before publishers noticed her and published the erotic romance trilogy Fifty Shades of Grey, Fifty Shades Darker, and Fifty Shades Freed which sold over 70 million copies worldwide, setting the record as the fastest selling paperback of all time.

Hugh Howey is a third example.  He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks. Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon. This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

Hugh Howey

I know Hugh.  Sometimes we get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

These writers are great inspirations.

Hugh’s success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.

Neither you or I are likely to have this type of success. The good news is… we do not need this type of success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing offers so many opportunities that one can have a life that most people only dream of as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like those of Hugh Howey or E.L James or Amanda Hocking rarely explain how many hours of writing each devoted before their self published book sales soared.  They were journeymen first… stars second.

The sevens secrets are the journeyman secrets… call them a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in a year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably for you too.  First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form and the seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.  Everything seems new… except the seven secrets.  Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love it due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted in life. Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets on writing to sell.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whip Lash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings.  I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

I’m passionate about investing, so I write and self publish ideas about investing.  Merri and I love Ecuador… so we wrote about Ecuador.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  To be immersed in our passion and get paid well for it.  That usually enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

In 1974,  I had a business that never got ahead. I was almost penniless, in debt and living from hand to mouth.  Then I discovered these seven secrets.  They helped me write and sell book after book and report after report.  Since then, our self publishing business has brought in millions.

One key to building a successful self publishing business is to use the Golden Rule of Simplicity and the 7Ps to create your publication.  The premise behind the Golden Rule is that if you have a passion… you have a problem.  Your problem is a desire to fill.

The Golden rule of writing uses a writer’s desire as a compass to direct the creation and sale of the publication.

Here is the Golden Rule of Simplicity:  Your Desires Are in Others.  Your Desires ID Markets.  Your Habits Reveals Pathways.  Your Emotions Create Stories.  Your Demands Create Publications.

This creative pathway works whether your publication is written by hand and sold on the street corner or published for Kindle at Amazon.com. These simple but basic fundamentals guide the creation of your works whether you use the most sophisticated equipment and algorithms  or are totally low tech.

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer.  We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

You can learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business and Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive the Report, “How to Finance a Small Business Overseas” (no extra fee).

Merri and I have always preferred to start our micro businesses  through cash flow.  However in the early the days of our business I found myself raising extra capital several times.  I have also helped numerous businesses raise money to get started.  This report shares several experiences to give a thumbnail sketch of how to raise money abroad.

In addition you receive any updates we make on any of these courses reports or recordings, free for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund . 

To order International Business Made EZ and the entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program for $299.  Click Here.

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” you can hear on MP3.

 

Reuters article “Retirees Moving But Not Very Far”

The Symptom of Scorn – Micro Business Cure


Scorn… a symptom of social shifts that create one of the biggest… yet almost unrealized… economic dangers we know.

LONDON-RIOTS

London riots. The face of democracy?

LONDON-RIOTS

The voter’s scorn?

Entropy is a way of looking at shifts from order to disorder and chaos in social economic systems.

Entropy is the quantity within such systems that is sometimes called the arrows of time.  As time progresses, the entropy of a social economic system never decreases.  Order flows towards disorder at an increasing rate.

Time is the arrow that pierces the heart of social economic order.  The arrowhead is scorn.

Looking back 22 years ago, Merri and I organized and led a tour in Budapest about investing opportunity in Hungary.  We are generally on the leading edge so this was around the time the Berlin Wall came down and Eastern Europe was just beginning to emerge.

One of the speakers we organized on that tour was a young English businessman who was developing a number of enterprises in Budapest.  One point he made in his speech to our group has remained with me.

He pointed out that he could not hire anyone over the age of early 20s.  He explained that everyone older than that had been raised in the communist system and believed that the only way to get ahead was by stealing from the system.  The older workers had dishonesty ingrained in them.  Their upbringing included so much institutional theft… corruption…  and deception that these activities were a normal part of their personal habits as well.

He mentioned that everyone above that age hated the system and treated it with scorn.

That memory popped up immediately when I read the September 28, 2011 New York Times article “As Scorn for Vote Grows, Protests Surge Around Globe” by Nicholas Kulish.

The article shows how the loss of belief in capitalistic democracy is becoming global. Here is an excerpt:

Hundreds of thousands of disillusioned Indians cheer a rural activist on a hunger strike.
Israel reels before the largest street demonstrations in its history.

Enraged young people in Spain and Greece take over public squares across their countries.

Their complaints range from corruption to lack of affordable housing and joblessness, common grievances the world over.

But from South Asia to the heartland of Europe and now even to Wall Street, these protesters share something else: wariness, even contempt, toward traditional politicians and the democratic political process they preside over.

They are taking to the streets, in part, because they have little faith in the ballot box.

“Our parents are grateful because they’re voting,” said Marta Solanas, 27, referring to older Spaniards’ decades spent under the Franco dictatorship. “We’re the first generation to say that voting is worthless.”

Economics have been one driving force, with growing income inequality, high unemployment and recession-driven cuts in social spending breeding widespread malaise. Alienation runs especially deep in Europe, with boycotts and strikes that, in London and Athens, erupted into violence.

But even in India and Israel, where growth remains robust, protesters say they so distrust their country’s political class and its pandering to established interest groups that they feel only an assault on the system itself can bring about real change.

We have even seen how scorn for the establishment boiled over in staid, previously socially cohesive England.  

LONDON-RIOTS

Jolly old…

LONDON-RIOTS

England.

A friend who lives in England wrote during the riots: There has been some trouble down the road and we had all our lines running into the house cut by yobs (TV, Telephone, Internet, etc. which will cost us to repair).   We were pretty unsettled about it and have the house on lockdown day and night!  Shutters locked, lights off after dark and the baseball bat has been brought up from the basement (my good old Louisville Slugger) – but mainly I am more worried about being mugged by my utility suppliers – energy and water bills all went up here overnight by up to 30%! Ouch.

Much worse a tea shop where I stop in Clapham Junction was burned down and the whole shopping area was trashed by looters.  What really gets me is all the excuses being made for these people.

Such scorn can change everything because a prosperous social economic system requires belief,  agreement and non coerced cooperation.

Scorn for the establishment has been evolving for decades  and is why since the release of my first book “Passport to International Profit” written in the 1970s, I have preached and practiced being beyond any one system by being a One Man Multinational.

The core message in “Passport to International Profit” is to become a one man multinational with a six point command posture which is to:

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

We have since taken this one step further. To have a fulfilling six point lifestyle posture:

Live in one country you love.
Bank in a second country that is safe and that you really enjoy.
Invest in many countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Earn in two or more countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country that best fits your circumstances.
Take a second residence in a place where you love and want to be at times.

More than 40 years after having lived in and out of the USA,  Merri and I still believe that being global is vital from an investing and business point of view and enlivening for one’s lifestyle.

The key to a six point lifestyle is the ability to earn globally through service.   Social economic systems break down when too many rely on the system rather than their ability to serve.

The ultimate asset is the ability to produce a product or service that others are willing to pay for wherever you are.

George Orwell spotted the realities of nature and depicted them in his 1945 epic “Animal Farm” that described the nature of  everlasting entropy.  Order that leads to disorder that forms the foundation of a new order.

Service however is timeless.  Nations can come and go.  Eras have come and gone.  Businesses, industries and new technologies arrive, boom and bust… rise and fall.   Service, however, is the space through which the arrow of time flies… a weave in the fabric of reality that never frays.  Service is the lift that allows the Phoenix to rise.

Merri and I made the trip to Berlin to celebrate with the people of East Berlin and West Berlin when the Berlin Wall fell…we were up all night with the shouts heard all over the world…and joined with both peoples to herald a new beginning!  It was a very auspicious time filled with joy, sadness, eagerness and all the other expressions of gate that was opened.

Now much of that eagerness has turned to scorn.

However in every scenario… there is also an arrow of profit… opportunities through service in a micro business that creates profit and helps bring a positive impact to the world.

We have created five new programs to help create turn key micro businesses in the new economic era ahead.

Here is how you can profit.

lists

We have two main lists of readers…   On September 28, 2011 one list had 6,881 and the other 19,831.  Added with our smaller lists the numbers reach 30,000 readers so our emails go out to these almost 25,000 readers and the numbers grow every day.

Last year on this date our two main lists had 21,313 readers and the graph below from our autoresponding system shows the steady growth.

lists

This gives all of us… you as a subscriber to International Business made EZ…  an opportunity to enjoy a head start in your own micro business.

These lists have led us to be able to help many businesses that we have worked with for many years. Each has a unique  product or service that we love.  These companies are headquartered in many places… Switzerland, Denmark, Ecuador, Spain, Canada as well as the USA and all of them offer global potential… business opportunity almost anywhere.

We write about many of the products of these companies often… though we are not paid.. but just because we like their products and hope you’ll enjoy them too.

We have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as referrers, dealers and distributors.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

There are two qualifications to join the program…  completing this online course International Business Made EZ and attending an International Business & Investing Made EZ seminar.

After attending an International Business and investing seminar (the next is October 7-8-9, then February  10-11-12. 2012) you will be qualified to enroll for referrer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

Join us at our October 7-9 North Carolina or February 10-12 Seminar.   Click here for details.

We have started the beta program, and the good news is that we are not charging a penny more more.  Our International Business Made EZ online course and our International Business Made EZ seminars remain the same price though we’ll now offer subscribers an entrance to doing business with many turnkey businesses.

The overall service can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

All of our readers are invited to enroll in our International Business Made EZ Online Course and our International Business and Investing Seminar at any time.The Easiest Way to Start Now

Join us at International Business & Investing seminar in North Carolina October 7-8-9, 2011 or in Mt. Dora Florida February, 2012

Read the New York Times article: As Scorn for Vote Grows, Protests Surge Around Globe

Gary

Multi Currency Investing Baker’s Dozen


Here is a multi currency investing baker’s dozen ideas.

Every day I get some wisdom from my dad.

selling-ideas

He’s been gone from this earthly plane for well over 30 years…I wish we had had more time together as grownups.  Yet every day I start with some wisdom from him because I have just one gift he left me to use.

Talk about being old fashioned, I use my dad’s shaving brush, the one item I have that was his… an “Ever Ready Guaranteed” brand made in the USA that he kept with an Old Spice shaving mug.

I moved up from the old Gillette single blade razor that seemed to skin hair when you hurried…  but otherwise the routine never varies.

Picking up that brush each morning brings back some wisdom he shared with me like:

#1: “The best way through trouble is straight through it.”

#2: ” You make your own bed, so you have to lie in it”.

#3:”Nothing a gambler has is ever his own”.

There is nothing spectacular about these ideas. We all know them… but the gift is that because they are such common and simple ideas they can often be ignored.  The brush helps me make sure I don’t forget.

I realize how comforting such really basic concepts are in times of seeming economic turmoil and change.  They are so fundamental they cut through the noise and stick with reality any place…. any time…. any market.

So may I pass on the gift and share a baker’s dozen of basic ideas I have been taught about multi currency investing in the hopes they can help you during this time of social, investing and earning unrest.

1: We know less than we think we do…and that’s OK.

#2: Listen to those who disagree with us…this expands our horizons.

#3: The consensus may be wrong…truth is not created through repletion of an error.

#4: You cannot succeed without making mistakes…if you opt for certainty, you will die anonymously.

#5: Cheap good value stocks outperform expensive stocks.

#6: Companies with share prices already in established up trends offer greater immediate opportunity.

#7: Stocks with high earnings and rising earnings outperform stocks with low and falling earnings.

#8: Good value, high quality stocks with rising earnings that have gained attention from the market are the most likely to appreciate.

#9: Don’t care too much about day to day volatility.

#10: Don’t care too little about strategy.

#11: Do not count on extraordinary returns. Be realistic.

#12: Do not underexpose (don’t make too many short term decisions and not enough long term decisions) yourself for the long term.

#13: Know that a period of high returns will be followed by a period of low returns.

I hope these ideas remind you of ways that make your life better every day.

Gary

On the subject of remembering, don’t forget that we have a free gift reminder service.

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

 

Multi Currency Investments – The Darkest Hour


Is this the multi currency investment’s darkest hour when a double dip will increase opportunity?

dow chart

Here is a chart showing how the Dow Jones Industrial Index ended down last week.  See a similar chart below that shows why this could be good news for many.

Since it is Monday, let’s start this week by recognizing that this correction has been suspected and that historical research suggests that this is the darkest hour before the light at the end the global economic tunnel appears.

You’ll see below that the current stock market volatility and economic slow down are to be expected…are completely natural and in perfect order.  This is a time of great opportunity…not of disaster.

This site has continually reviewed the 15 to 17 year economic cycle as outline by Austrian economist, Joseph Shumpeter. The global economy (and US stock market) enjoys an approximately 15 year bull…. then about a 15 year bear (a period of no growth) and then moves back to start a 15 year bull.   These stock market bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.

15-year-economic-cycle-chart

At our June 2011 International Investing & Business seminar we looked at how the US equity market is currently about 12 years into the 15 year trend.

We then compared the last 15 year bear cycle That began in 1968 and saw that after 12 years from  October 1968 to April 1980  the US stock S&P index had dropped -7.7% in 138 Months.

Then we saw how from the beginning of this bear cycle from December 1999 to June 2011  the S& P was down -11% in 138 Months.

Then we looked at this chart from Moore Research Center, Inc. to see what to expect from June 2011 to June 2013 if that period compares with June 1980 to 1982.   The historical story tells us to expect a large drop.

Notice the similarities between the market in early 1980 (Blue Line) and the current Dow above.  There is a strong synchronicity.

s&P chart

A strong 1999 to 2013 bear?

See how to get a FREE recording of the June seminar and how to attend our October 7-8-9, 2011 International Investing and Business Seminar.

If history is our guide, some great new innovation or innovations will then ignite 15 year bull beginning in 2013 to 2014.

This is good news for retiring boomers who manage not to be wiped out from the next several years of sideways and downwards motion.

This is great news for long term investors who can pick up incredible bargains now.

Here is how these cycles seem to work.

Step #1: An economic downturn enhances a war or threat of war. Struggles for survival in the war (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War (WWIII), super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the Internet.

Step #2: Each new invention helped win a war.  Shifting the technology to domestic use… after the war… created a boom.

Step #3: Each boom leads to excess.

Step #4: Each excess led to a correction.  The correction creates an economic downturn.

Step #5: The economic downturn enhances a war or threat of war.

Here we are… in the correction… at the correct time when we should expect that another war (or threat of war such as the Cold War) should begin to build!  This latest downturn started almost exactly (1998), 16 years after the last boom began (1982)…which began after the last great human struggle called the Cold War.

If the cycle repeats, the struggle should build now due to the poor economy.  If the cycles repeat then the bottom is around 2013. Everything will seem bleakest… darkest…blackest and this will be the best time of all to invest… hence my light suit!

This Morgan Stanley graph shows these cycles.

morgan-stanley-graph

The key for spotting the greatest investment opportunities is to spot the next big invention… the technology that will spin out of WWIV.

The key is that a problem must have such severe consequences (such as losing the war and being destroyed) that all stops… all logics of return on investment are ignored. Technology and research are pushed full steam ahead regardless of cost.

The key to great success now is spotting the war.  It could be against global warming.  The battle could be against a plague…. new bacteria that resists antibiotics.  A bad year of crops could create famine and the war would be on hunger.

The solutions could be the small stuff (nano tubes) or large sun reflectors tied to earth that generate energy.  Whatever, large or small,  the opportunity they create will be huge.

We are betting on water, natural health, agricultural real estate, good value US real estate and Ecuador real estate… because we understand these.

You should look for innovations that you understand that could rock the world.

If markets continue to fall.  If the global economy stalls.  If there is increased unemployment and turmoil… we cannot do much about this.

We can… if we see what is likely to come, be prepared so we can think out of the box and invest and do business in places most likely to be at the forefront of the next social economic expansion.

These are the times of greatest opportunity for the small guy when the old order that has taken advantage of the system lets go and a new order led by new blood continues humanity’s evolution.

Gary

Use our Multi Currency Portfolio Service in the year ahead.

See ways to earn globally with our online courses.

See an Ecuador visa warning and see ways to gain in Ecuador from the turmoil in the Western world.