the shooting starts.
There is a way to let the upcoming US dollar crunch increase your income. Not by raising ducks… but by not being a sitting duck.
Merri and I raise mallards (that arrive in the mail). When they mature we put them on…
pond at our farm. They love it spring… summer and…
Then the ducks leave before the cold winter arrives. They do not want to be sitting ducks when the weather turns ill.
Neither do you.
Here is the first story in the second chapter of the first book I wrote. The book is entitled “Passport to International Profit”. This was written in the 1970s. But the economic concerns still apply now.
Here is what that chapter in the book said :
Having a Harbor
Doesn’t everyone dream of having some safe harbor for the ultimate escape? A completely dependable last line of defense, so that when everything else falls to pieces, one can drop back inside this cozy little shelter and enjoy a safe snug comfortable life. Certainly it is sensible to have one. In fact, to my way of thinking, anyone who doesn’t have quite a few safe harbors is not only playing a dangerous game he doesn’t have to play, he is missing one of the greatest contentment’s of life..confidence.
Duck in the Pond Theory
We would all have our own little partnership with our own little pond if we were ducks. The pond gives us water, food, shelter and peace. We, in turn, give it ducks. For what is a pond without ducks? We clean it, eat up unnecessary plants and in general keep everything in tiptop condition. However, every once in a while the hunters arrive. Very quickly the rules of the partnership change. You see, the pond as your partner has a limited range of powers. Whether it likes it or not, a new partnership is about to be imposed upon the pond. It will be forced to join in a hunter/pond partnership and part of the rules of that relationship is that the hunters can shoot at the ducks on the pond. This not only throws you, the duck, into an unrequested, unwanted hunter/hunted partnership but threatens to terminate quickly your duck/pond partnership.
It’s possible if you are not careful that you will become a diner/dinner partner on the wrong end of the fork. Logic dictates what to do in a situation like this. Since your pond partner is no longer dependable because the rules are about to be changed, you should take the initiative. Rule #1 of the Duck in the Pond Theory is in fact “Don’t be a sitting duck when the shooting starts”, so you’ve go to decide what to do.
All too often in real life, people get too upset with change to use logic. Their first reaction instead is dismay. They sit there wallowing in disappointment, shock and anger because their pond has let them down. Or even worse, they sit there looking at the gun barrels and choose to blind themselves to the reality of the situation, saying this is some sort of joke or the hunters are really looking for rabbits or the pond won’t let this happen.
Rule #2 in this theory is “be realistic”. If you don’t accept that partnerships can change daily or ignore the limitations of your partner; you are not capable of deciding when to run for your harbor. You’ll lie to yourself and probably to your partner. This gums up the whole works. You’ll mess up a fairly clean machine by adding unwanted, useless nuts and bolts which do nothing but clog everything up.
The human mind/body partnership has an almost unlimited capacity to ignore its eyeballs, to adjust reality to match its desires. This inbred flaw causes humans to ignore reality and expect the world to revolve around them. Being realistic is accepting that no person, thing or partnership is indispensable or permanent. Realism is recognizing change and accepting it when no one is able to stop it.
If, by being realistic, you recognize that as much as you love your pond and as much as the gun barrels look harmless, that the shooting is not far away, you must act. You must get off the pond. Where do you go? Rule #3 of the theory is to be sure you have another pond to go to. I call it having a positive pond factor. The more places you have to go, the more positive your pond factor.
Today we are forced into a citizen/government partnership with a government that has borrowed way more than we can repay.
This will cause the US dollar to fall and inflation to rise… eventually.
There will be the few who are prepared to gain from this. Most could become poorer… especially those with fixed income… pensions… savings in the bank or bonds in greenbacks.
Those with salaries may be protected a bit… yet with higher unemployment the risk of their losing their job will be higher as well.
In this era of great economic change… one constant we can be quite sure of is inflation…. which hurts those on fixed income and salaries the most.
The market of big investors is acting as if they believe in inflation. On Oct. 25, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year TIPS at a negative yield. This was the first time investors were willing to receive negative returns at a Treasury bond auction.
TIPS are inflation protected bonds. The interest rates are inflation adjusted.
November 4, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion more 10-year TIPS bonds at a record low yield of 0.409% after the previous low interest rate of 1.019% was set at a Sept. 2, 2010 auction.
This suggests that investors have confidence the Fed will win the battle against deflation, and create inflation.
Yet there is that pesky word… eventually.
The recent US treasury auction of TIPS bonds suggests at first sight that the market expects inflation, but it also shows that the market expects deflation first.
A WSJ guest commentator wrote: When inflation-protected Treasury bonds, or TIPS, were sold with a negative yield recently, it was widely seen as a result of rising inflation expectations. Economics Professor Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University says that the negative yield means investors expect inflation will remain too low.
What does the recent TIPS auction really say about inflation expectations?
The most recent five-year TIPS auction brought a negative real yield and elicited front page stories in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal about worries of high inflation. The TIPS auction does bring troublesome news for inflation, but it is the opposite of the news reported in the coverage: if anything, the auction suggests anemic inflation, below the Fed’s target range of 1.5% to 2%.
The standard calculation of breakeven rates of inflation based on comparing nominal and real five-year yields suggests that the TIPS bond will give the investor the same return as the nominal bond if inflation over the next five years averages 1.5% per year. That’s low to start with. But in our current situation facing some risk of ongoing deflation, this standard calculation will tend to overstate anticipated inflation. TIPS have the peculiar feature that they are a one-sided bet — while the principal is adjusted upwards for inflation, it is not adjusted downwards for deflation.
This makes TIPS more attractive when there is a risk of deflation, pushing their price up and yield down. At present, adjusting for this “insurance against deflation” would lower the implied breakeven rate of inflation to even less than 1.5%.
The five ways to combat inflation are:
#1: Move where costs are lower… such as Ecuador. See today’s message about Urcuqui Ecuador where there may be extra value in Ecuador real estate.
#2: Invest in real estate.
#3: Invest in commodities.
#4: Have your own small business.
#5: Invest in equities.
However if this inflation is going to take time to rise… it is really urgent to get your strategy and timing correct.
First, do not leverage heavily.
Second, do not speculate expecting a fast turn.
Third, diversify and look for inflationary fighters that hold up during deflation.
Instead of pure commodities… I purchased shares in a Polish mining company that produces copper and silver. The shares pay a decent income… good for deflation but also good for inflation and I get a play on the Polish zloty which may be under valued. I also invested in high dividend hydro energy companies.
In real estate I buy fixer uppers. In deflation, costs to fix up go down… end results are better profits when inflation returns.
I focus more on investing in our own small business as it can offer services and gain during inflation and deflation.
Hope these suggestions help!
Receive a free 51 lesson course on how to build your own website when you enroll in our online course “The Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have an Internet Business”. Learn more about this online course here.
See how to attend an International Business Made EZ seminar and get Tangled Web now FREE. You save $299.
Even better. Save $4,982 plus get Tangled Web online FREE now. Click here or read below.
Belong to the International Club
How to Have Real Safety
Regain Real Security
There is a path to true security.
I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake. Almost!
The supposed error? Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.
Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.
The girl was pretty and blond. Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.
We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school. Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end. Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California. I started traveling the world. Never saw her again. I hope her life has gone well. But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.
What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart. Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.
We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path. Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road. Traffic was no problem, not many cars. Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd. There we passed an old clapboard candy store. I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees. Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile. There was Terry’s house.
I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost. There were dozens of paths made by who knows what. Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school. I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir. Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans). I was home!
Sweet simplicity, that dream. Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky. Pure innocence.
My tragic error was looking back. I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots. Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.
Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage. McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers. The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys. Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun. Good bye memories, good bye.
How can our kids walk in places like this? How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?
How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast? Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.
How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines? Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends? How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?
“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought. “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.
This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades. This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.
By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now. That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.
This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world. It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.
That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.
I want to share this information with a special few in our summer course in the Blue Ridge Mountains where the air is dry, crisp, with a bright sparkling sun. Our North Carolina woods is a place where we can once again walk down sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths beneath huge, fat, green fir and hemlock.
We start the course with this question that can help us get our lives back.
“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”
This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”. This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness. Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are likely to make good investment decisions. If not, no matter how much money an investors has, changes are, they’ll lose.
Bring Value and Purposeful Investing Together
Join us to learn how to make safety and profit easier and less time consuming so we can focus on our individual purposes in life.
Become an International Club member and join like-minded souls, who take a positive view and think outside the box for better health, greater income and safer, more profitable investments. Share ideas on how to add value to everything and make 2016 -2017 your best years yet.
In 2016 Merri’s, David’s and my mission is to share our 50 years of experience in international business, investing and living to make ourselves happier, healthier and wealthier.
To reach a wider audience we have shifted our seminars online including the seminar “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.
Here is a partial syllabus of this seminar.
- Three common sense ideas: Avoid lines. Go where you are a name not a number. Decide who you are and what matters to you.
- Why three economic trends that have make smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.
- How to look for short term problems that create long term value.
- Update on the best ten markets for safety and profit.
- How to diversify in value with Country ETFs.
- The value of time in investing and life.
- The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
- Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
- The next great fuel.
- Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
- Investing in Demographics.
- Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
- Hidden Inflation .
- How to protect against pension loss.
- The Silver Dip 2016. When and how to invest in gold and silver . How to double your position with loans.
- How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
- How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.
Club membership is for an entire year and the recorded seminar is just one high point.
In 2016 and 2017 we are conducting online seminars about value investing, natural health and how to write to sell.
International Club members receive all the online seminars free.
In addition club membership includes:
- Personal investing Course (Pi), normally $297, FREE
- Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher, normally $299, FREE
- Eventful Business, normally $349, FREE
- International Business Made EZ, normally $299, FREE
- Report “Three Economic Conditions for 50% or More Profit,” normally $29.95, FREE
- Report “Silver Dip 2015” normally $27, FREE
- Three online Value Investing Seminars, normally $477, FREE
- One online Natural Health Seminar, normally $119, FREE
- One online Writers Camp, normally $299, FREE
Merri and I have been organizing courses, seminars and newsletters about international and Super Thinking lifestyles for over 30 years. The importance of this sharing… by like minded souls… was reinforced when a delegate from a course sent an email that said:
My Dearest Merri and Gary, Thank you for your most gracious hospitality last weekend. I am just thrilled at being a part of your group. You and Gary were exactly as I imagined you to be, warm friendly, kind, considerate, genuine, helpful, fun, sincere, what else can I say……I felt so comfortable in your presence and learned so much in your course. I was sad to leave the farm that Sunday afternoon. You made us all feel so welcome and cared about. You were so kind to make arrangements for a ride with the other delegates from the Charlotte Airport. They were so nice to me and so helpful, by the time the weekend was over I felt like they were my long lost brothers. Monday morning we all had breakfast at the airport together and I was so sad to see them go, I was sad the weekend was over, perhaps sad is not the right word for how I was feeling perhaps Gratitude is a better way to describe it. Grateful for having the opportunity to share the weekend with such wonderful, like minded Human Beings, in the beautiful mountains of North Carolina. Thank you Merri and Gary. Thanks to you I now have new hope and a new direction to move forward in my life. I know by attending your classes and conferences that through education and due diligence I will make the right choices.
I invite you to be a member of the International Club.
Let’s prosper in these times of change. Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year? Join us online.
Club members receive everything we offer in 2016 and 2017.
Read entire Wall Street Journal blog about TIPS auction