With the Dow Jones industrial up 32% in the past five years and near an all time high, is it time to do some market timing? Chart of Dow Jones Industrial from www.yahoo.finance.com (click on images to enlarge)
Our recent review of Keppler Asset Management’s value analysis suggests the market can continue to rise.
Keppler’s July 2013 major market value analysis shows that past investments in an index of global equities should continue to see strong appreciation. Statistically annual total returns of between 7.3% and 18.7 %, per annum should be expected. The review further suggests that the US equity market is one of the six markets that is least likely to provide the best returns.
If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.
Should we get out of markets altogether or swap US shares for equities in better value markets?
Certainly one wants to seek good value, but decisions should not be made on market timing whenever possible.
I have been reminded of this in Keppler’s once a year review of the “Risk & Return Characteristics of Selected Asset Classes”. He does this to give us “Key Considerations for Asset Allocation Decisions”.
This annual study by Keppler shows that decisions made about US large equities and held for only one year have a chance of loss up to 67%.
The chart below from this 2013 review shows that large US stocks certainly outperformed US bonds, gold and housing in the long term.
Wealth Indices of Investments U.S. Capital Markets Inflation Adjusted 1926-2012 (87 years).
This study also shows that short term decisions about these stocks have the highest risk and that statistically have a risk of loss of up to -67% if the decision is held for only one year.
Time is the key. Stocks dramatically outperform all other forms of investment in this study, but a global index of stocks are the riskiest investments and have the greatest potential for loss if held for less than ten years.
The following chart shows how great the risk is on year one.
Probability of a Positive Return
Source: Ibbotson ® SBBI ® 2013 Classic Yearbook and Keppler Asset Management Inc. based on calendar year returns…
US government bonds on the other hand have a risk of only a -5.6% loss and…
treasury bills have almost no risk of loss in one year decisions.
Source: Ibbotson ® SBBI ® 2013 Classic Yearbook and Keppler Asset Management Inc. Annualized returns; rolling periods based on month-end data.
Risk Versus Reward
Equities offer the highest potential return. Equities also offer the greatest risk in the short term. If one can invest with a ten year horizon… the study suggests that there is almost no risk and a guarantee of the best return. You can see this clearly in the next chart.
Probability of a Positive Return
There is a 26% chance of loss in the first year, but only an 8% chance of loss with bonds and a 3% chance of loss with T Bills.
In a five year horizon there is no chance of loss with US bonds or T Bills but still a 13% chance of loss with equities.
However if an investor has time the average return on the equities was 9.8%, bonds 5.4% and T Bills 3.5%.
This study can be enormously helpful in determining how to structure your savings.
First, let’s look at what to take into account.
This is a study relating to large US stocks, bonds and T-Bills over the past 87 years. US Debt, growth and risk characteristics will differ in the next 87 years. This study is a guide to understanding how time changes the risk reward relationships of stock versus bonds and T Bill investments in an economy with characteristics similar to US over the past 87 years.
Second, take into account how much time your investments have until redemptions are required.
Third, take into account the type of redemptions… are they big chunks to pay off mortgages or pay for university fees, etc. or smaller monthly chunks to provide income.
Fourth, take into account how much you can afford to lose. Will a small loss throw your budget into turmoil or if you lose half of your capital will you still be okay?
Fifth, do you have enough to layer your investments so bond investments can provide short term withdrawal requirement and equity investments can be left alone for more than five and ideally up to ten years?
This can be complicated, but we’ll look at how to do this in our upcoming International Investing and Business Seminar.
In the meantime we have sent our Multi Currency Report subscribers Keppler’s full 25 page analysis. Subscribers can get this at your password protected page. Click here.
How do I do this with my system?
I provide my asset managers using the techniques outlined in our Multi Currency Report. Then I let these asset managers choose the specific shares and bonds for my portfolio.
Learn more about the asset managers I use for my personal investment portfolio. For more details about ENR Asset Management click here
or write to Thomas Fischer at firstname.lastname@example.org
Join Thomas Fischer and me for an update on where and how to invest at our International Investing and Business Seminars this October and February 2014.
International Investing & Business SeminarLearn about pinnacle careers, Ecuador and multi currency breakouts at our Super Thinking + International Investing & Business Seminar.
The seminar is divided into three main sessions. Each session helps you learn how to gain freedom, remove stress, earn more and do more good in and for the world.
Enroll in the course during November and save $200.
The normal course fee is $799 for one and $999 for two. During this November special the fee is $599 for one and $799 for two.
Sessions One: International & Value Investing Outside the Box.
Session Two: International Micro Business – “How to Have a Positive Global Income”. We look at three ways to earn globally though writing… events or exports.
Session Three: Ecuador Living and Real Estate.
This is the premier seminar we have been conducting every October and February for over 30 years. Join us February 14-15-16 in the balmy Central Florida winter.
Lake Eustis. This winter’s seminars will be on Lake Eustis next to Mt. Dora.
Session One: International & Value Investing Outside the Box.
Forces came together last year for the biggest economic breakout in history. Huge profits were waiting in business and investing so those who attended our seminar six months and a year ago gained a huge head start.
One reason for these gains was that stock markets and currency values are cyclical. Due to the 2009 downturn, equity markets in 2013 had been selling at some of their best valuations in years.
Delegates at our last seminars learned that this optimistic outlook was based on the development of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values.
We looked at the big picture… from the turn of the century until now. Our study of investing and business opportunity includes an entire global economic history that has been composed of a series of ups and downs.
Over the long run values in the stock market have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.
There are always emotional reasons for the downs… the defaults… the worries of double dip recessions… high unemployment… concerns about fiscal cliffs. Such fears hold investors back. Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless.
Values increase as prices stagnate. Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.
We continually look for value so we can spot breakouts because economic breakouts create fortunes.
This February we’ll update breakout possibilities… in global investing… in business and in Ecuador.
For example we’ll look at the potential for a breakout of the Singapore dollar.
US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart
This currency creates extra value opportunity because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and fundamentals for the US dollar weak. Yet the dollar has been rising against the Singapore dollar for almost a year. This is exactly the type of breakout position we look for and share at this seminar.
Here are the currency fundamentals.
US GDP Growth last year 1.4%
Singapore GDP Growth last year 3.8%
US current account balance for last year -$425 billion or -2.7% of GDP
Singapore current account balance for last year +$49 billion or +19% of GDP
US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year -4.5%
Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year +0.7%
US Unemployment 7.4%
Singapore Unemployment 2.1%
US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds 2.71%
Singapore$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds 2.45%
This is a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.
Where to Invest
The seminar reviews many ways to diversify currencies for investors large and small.
For example almost anyone can invest in the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG) managed by Guggenheim Partners.
Guggenheim manages a stable of currency ETFs under the CurrencyShares brand.
These ETFs are traded on the New York Stock Exchange so even small investors can diversify in other currencies.
One of the ETFs is the CurrencyShares Singapore Dollar Trust (FXSG). The investment seeks to reflect the price of the Singapore Dollar. This provides a low cost, simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Singapore Dollars.
Another way to diversify into currencies with breakout potential is through ENR Asst Management’s Global Currency Sandwich Portfolio which diversifies into numerous non dollar portfolios. The portfolio is currently diversified into five currencies… Singapore dollar, Swedish kroner, Norwegian krone, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and Gold. More on ENR Management and their portfolios in a moment.
At our investing and business seminar we review which breakouts are likely to take place next.
Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during up and down markets for over 30 years. This is because the simple fact is… the really big profits come at the start of a breakout. In February 2104 I want to kick off the year with you and share my usual confidence and enthusiasm about the breakouts that are near.
Winter sunset on Lake Eustis viewed from our seminar hall.
Here is a partial syllabus of the seminar:
Session One – International & Value Investing Outside the Box. This session shows how to protect your investments and savings, plus what to do with extra profits you’ll earn.
Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in. This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s… and we have worked with Jyske Bank…. one of the largest currency traders in the world for over 25 years. We have a strategic alliance with ENR Asset Management a Canadian investment management company that works with Jyske Bank so Americans can gain multi currency investments as well as Canadian and Danish investment sense.
Thomas Fischer will be on hand or on Skype to review portfolio and currency updates. Thomas is a regular at these seminars and has worked with us for more than a decade.
ENR Asset Management is headquartered in Montreal Canada, works with Jyske Bank in Denmark to provide Americans with European style investment banking services from North America. Assets are managed and regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission, through two of the world’s safest banking communities in the world, Canada and Denmark.
Here are the “Top Seven Safest Countries” to bank in based on the World Economic Forum’s Global ranking index.
World’s Soundest Bank System Rating:
For example at our latest seminar we reviewed the potential for a Singapore dollar breakout.Here is the breakout we updated in a December 2012 borrow Japanese yen signal at our 2013 start of the year seminar.
In the next six months the US dollar rose over 13% against the yen.
Yen dollar chart at www.finance.yahoo.com
On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen. By July 2013, a dollar would buy 100 yen!
Readers who followed this call picked up an extra 13% forex profit, plus the investment return in nine months.
To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.
The Multi Currency Sandwich is not a fast trading tactic. Normally positions are looked at with a five year view and we have tracked this powerful long term strategy for more than 20 years.At each seminar we update our plans and strategies and ENR’s strategies, why and what to do in the current moment.
Multi currency investing offers five enhanced benefits… asset protection…. greater privacy… broader diversification… forex potential and positive carry potential. The seminars teaches how to gain these benefits.
* Stocks that rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.
US Stock market since 1906.
These stock market bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.Economic downturns create war.
Military struggle (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War (WWIII), super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet. The military technology shifts to domestic use.A boom is created that leads to excess. Excess leads to correction.Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.
Details in the seminar include:
* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.
* We’ll also look at the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA. We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.
* What’s Up With Gold and Silver. One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection. We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars. He’ll outline how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies. He’ll review the firm commitment by the US government to winning the battle of the printing presses and what impact this could have in U.S. dollars.
Downtown Eustis Florida.
Another reason to join us is the pension protection session.
The power of pensions invested globally to preserve wealth can be seen by Mitt Romney’s individual retirement account. The news reported during his run for President that Romney’s IRA holds more than $20.7 million in Swiss bank Accounts.
The seminar reviews how to maximize IRA investment gains so they can accumulate tax-free in an IRA with overseas investments. The method used by tax lawyers is to have the IRA invest through an offshore affiliate of the private-equity firm, known as an offshore blocker corporation. Any special tax is avoided because the IRA is investing in the offshore corporation, not in a private-equity partnership.
SESSION TWO: How to Turn Your Passion into a Profitable Microbusiness. A micro business is the best investment you can make. Start small and magnify your investment with your effort, enthusiasm and energy
* Earn through writing and publishing… without risk. Cash in on the blow back from the global community. The global economy is good but big business… big government…. big medicine and global everything is also impersonal, often harsh and inhumane. This expansionary process leaves us believing in nothing. We are cynical of the global banks… the aggressive police… the intrusive government… the big church… the monetized medicine… the negative media… the unfair laws…. the failing currencies… all the broken promises.
Yet as humans, we have to believe in something and our last bastion… the one we can see, hear, taste, smell and feel is our local community… either as a place or as a collection of like minded souls.
This is also where we can actually accomplish something and actually have an impact at doing some good.
* Learn a proven business model using writing to sell.
By starting small and building with stepping stones and a harmonious focus, Merri and I have learned how to own profit generating phrases at Google. We, along with our webmaster David Cross share the secrets of how you can use words to create your own global income.
* The seminar shares how we us “Seven Ps” (Person, Problem and Promise, Product) to zero in on key word phrases. The Fifth P (Promise) develops new customers. The Sixth P is the Prospecting Path and Seventh P is the Presentation that creates income.
Learn about other micro business possibilities…
In the global micro business sessions we’ll see ideas on how to:
* Create Export Businesses
* Earn from Self Publishing and Writing
* Develop Internet Sales
* Cash in on Ecuador Business Ideas
* Find Organic Agricultural Business Ideas
* Profit With Health Business Ideas
* Turn Ideas for Tours and Seminar Businesses into Profitable Lifestyles
* Create a Multi Dimension extra income lifestyle.
Multi dimensional living can create a lifestyle that brings better health and lasting “real” wealth. Many readers are choosing a multi dimensional lifestyle, living on a farm and earning in other ways such as writing.
Activity on the farm in North Carolina. It’s tax deductible and profitable but…
I cannot call it work.
Merri and I have been fortunate. The self publishing business has treated us well. However a great deal of our financial stability also comes from being multi dimensional. We have lived on our own farm and seminar camp and orange grove and in our own Ecuador hotel and hacienda. We are always fixing things up…. buying broken places or taking broken ideas and making them whole.
For decades we have been buying houses and fixing them… painting, restructuring and such. This is our hobby… that happens to be profitable… or maybe that’s our business and writing is the hobby that also happens to be profitable?
The point is what we do is not work. We just regularly do what we love and figure out how to earn income in the process. The adage framed on my desk given to me by a beloved Indian Pundit is “Action is Thy Duty… Reward Not Thy Concern“. With this motto and a bit of common sense living joyfully and earning merge.
Our daughter, Cinda, and David Cross, our son-in-law webmaster and granddaughters, Sequoia and Teeka, have taken this lifestyle route as well. Cinda loves animals so is a veterinarian and specializes in animal acupuncture which she can do at their farm.
David has his website and voice-over business he can run from their farm and the girls love working in the gardens.
David and Cinda’s multi dimensional farm. They now produce 60% of their food and earn extra income selling their excess organic crops.
Using the Bio Degradable “Bio Wash” to gain added value we have been able to double our production and quadruple the profits in our orange grove.
In the multi dimension segment of the seminar we review how to spot “live on agri and B&B opportunity” in small towns and Ecuador. We’ll also look at Bio Wash, that we have supported now for nearly 20 years. We’ll show the environmental as well as health and business benefits it brings.
Join Merri and me at our Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.
February 14-15-16, 2014, Mount Dora, Florida
Session Three: Ecuador Living. Talk about catching an early wave… Merri and I caught the Ecuador expat trend right at its beginning 18 years ago. We brought readers who joined us in Ecuador then… some amazing opportunities. This cycle has matured but there are still great bargains if you know what to do. No one has as much experience and as many contacts in this field. This experience is also dependable. We do not sell Ecuador real estate so you won’t be hearing any hidden agendas.
A beach house for $16,000? Is that bargain enough? You cannot beat experience when it comes to learning all the ins and outs and buying real estate in a country like Ecuador.
For example after more than a dozen years of traveling… working… buying and selling real estate and running businesses in Ecuador… we led Jean Marie Butterlin to the coast and he began scouring the beaches from Manta, north to Pedernales… finding the bargains…. meeting the landowners… understanding the rules, regulations and customs.
That experience made him the expert of Ecuador beach real estate so that bargains could be found and so his clients could overcome the biggest problems and intelligently buy real estate on the coast.
We’ll share how to buy beach property intelligently.
Here is Jean Marie’s second beach home…. secluded overlooking this…
isolated beach home for just…
You’ll learn how to overcome one of the biggest mistakes most real estate buyers make on the beach.
At the seminar we will update Ecuador real estate and residency rules with data provided by Dr Andres Cordova. Andres is our friend and Ecuador attorney. He is the grandson of one of Ecuador’s more famous presidents and was a senior partner in a law firm that represents Ecuador’s treasury.
We’ll also review how to create an Ecuador export business as Merri and I have for many years.
Roberto Ribadeneira head of the Ateam Ecuador in Quito has been an exporter for many years and provides information about how to shop, ship and sell with an Ecuador export businesses.
We’ll review The Ecuadorshop Logistics service that provides all these services for exporters in importers into the USA.
We’ll share how Roberto provides an exclusive service that helps readers who export from Ecuador monitor production and quality and assure timely delivery.
This is a great service that provides every detail for importing products into the USA. We have used this logistics service ourselves for years and became the largest shipper of Ecuador roses last Christmas. One big benefit is that the service can send each product direct to the buyer in the USA. The Ecuadorshop Logistics service makes small and medium scale Ecuador exporting possible.
Join Merri and me at our Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar
February 14-15, 2014, Eustis, Florida
Eustis at night.
Some breakout is coming but its not what’s happening that counts. It’s what you do with it.
Finally and perhaps most important… you learn how to use Super Thinking.
The educational program Merri and I have developed uses a different form of frequency modulation that opens enormous opportunity for expansion, understanding, peacefulness as well as greater wealth.
FM teaching uses frequency (in music and with each sense… sight…. smell, tactile and even smell) to integrate brain waves so the process of absorbing, processing and recalling information is vastly accelerated. This brings forth the three C’s: Calm, Clarity and Coherence.
FM creates relaxed concentration… a key to happiness, health and success.
You learn whole brain thinking that can help improve your freedom, satisfaction and income through business.
This part of the seminar helps us integrate their brain waves so they are more intelligent, intuitive and relaxed.
The Super Thinking sessions show three ways (baroque music, relaxation and nutrition) to get into and stay in a state of relaxed concentration… a mental state shown to enhance almost every human capability… especially writing.
Merri and I are explorers so we have used this techniques for decades. We are always looking for what’s next… trying to stay on or ahead of the leading edge and need ways to think outside he box.
The Super Thinking sessions share how we do this to live better…. using frequency modulation to be smarter… stronger…. more energetic… more aware, friendlier, compassionate, happier and healthier.
We are in our 45th year of business and we share what we have learned and where this is leading our activities in our upcoming seminar. Join us.
Spotting new trends and applying them to our micro business has brought us a strong and continual flow of income through good times and bad. More importantly the process has been fulfilling…. beneficial to society and healthy. Now you can benefit from the latest… and perhaps strongest… of all the trends we have stumbled upon.
Applying the concepts of super thinking to spotting trends over the past 45 years has helped thousands of our readers make and save millions. The success of our readers has been a driving force in our lives yet we have always wanted to do more so continued looking deeper at ways we can share how to have income, stability, good health and contentment.
Join us to learn our most recent experiences and most advanced concepts and ideas.
Join Merri and me at our Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar
February 14-15-16 2014, Eustis, Florida
Boardwalk on Lake Eustis.