The Golden Question


When is it good to invest in gold?

A reader recently sent this note.

Hi Gary, Looks like a fair chance (according to today’s WSJ) the US Dollar may get stronger for a while.  If that occurs, how would that most likely affect the price of gold and perhaps silver? Thanking you in advance.

I sent this reply:  There has traditionally been an inverse relationship between the trade-weighted U.S. dollar and the price of gold.  This was fundamental under the gold standard.

Once the standard was gone, there was only a psychological tilt towards gold whenever the value of the U.S. dollar increases and vice versa as the chart below shows.

gold

However, dollar strength is just one factor.  As the dollar becomes less of the reserve currency of the world that factor weakens.

I think inflation and interest rates and stock market prices are far more important factors that will affect the price of gold.

I gave up long ago trying to figure out short term moves of metals or currencies.

For example, the premise in the Wall Street Journal article has to be suspect.  My experience is that tomorrow an article in the same paper could suggest why the dollar will fall.  There are too many unknowns to think we really know.

I have tried to determine a basic real value for gold based on genuine purchasing power.  The math I use suggests that gold should be priced at about $1,350.  I work on the premise that above $1,350 an ounce, buying gold is a speculation that is not supported fundamentally.

Below the price of $1,350, I work on the theory that gold is a good deal for long term investing.

Then I look at silver and platinum also to see if they are better value than gold (they both are better value now).

I believe in holding a portion of every portfolio in precious metals as insurance against hyper inflation.

Any other investment is a speculation.  I believe that investors should wait for ideal conditions before taking this type of risk.

You can read all about it and why I favor gold and silver in our latest Silver Dip Report.

Gary

Turn $250 into $51,888

Spectacular profit potential has developed with short term distortions and trends… in silver and the British pound.

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less… for example.

If someone offers you a deal like this, I would normally say “Run as fast as you can!

Yet in 1986, I spotted two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) and this is exactly what I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to buy silver.

I must admit it.

I was wrong.

Readers who followed the report made nearly that amount ($46,299 to be exact) in only one year!

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  Precious metal and currency contrasts that had reaped huge rewards for me and many of my readers 30 years ago were repeating themselves.  I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015”.

Now “Silver Dip 2018” reveals that these trends have come into place again!

“Silver Dip 2015” looked at potential profits in silver in 2015, and similar conditions to 1986 fell into place. The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80.  This ratio means that silver is more likely to rise than gold.

After readers read the report, the price of the silver ETF revealed in the report rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60.

This created a nice profit, but the currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

$10,000 invested in shares at $13.57 purchased 736 shares (rounded down).  At $19.60 the 648 shares were worth $14,425 for a 44.25% rise in 1 year.

If the investment was leveraged, the performance was better.

Take for example, an investment of $10,000 based on that report.  With no leverage, the $10,000 rose to $14,425 for a $4,425 profit or 44.25% gain on the original $10,000 invested.

One times leverage ($10,000 invested and $10,000 loan also invested) created $28,870 or a return of $18,544 after interest and loan payoff of $10,326 or 85.44% gain on the original $10,000 invested.

Two times leverage ($10,000 invested and $20,000 loan also invested) creates $43,316 or $22,664 after interest and loan payoff of $20,752 or 126.64% gain.

Three times leverage ($10,000 invested and $30,000 loan also invested) creates $57,761 or $26,783 profit after interest and loan payoff of $30,978 or 167.83% gain.

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  From July 15, 2015 to July 15, 2016 the British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

6,451 pounds borrowed in July 2015 at 1.55 converted to $10,000 to invest in SLV.

At 1.33 it only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

Here are the profit figures of the Silver Dip from July 2015 to July 2016. (These calculations are approximate. The exact day a purchase or sale was made would change the profit or costs plus interest rates will have varied from lender to lender.  There would be also trading costs that reduced the profits.  All are minor fluctuations compared to the profits.)

Gain on $10,000 invested.

 No leverage: $4,425 profit, a 44.25% gain.

With leverage $10,000 plus $10,000 loan invested created $9,969 profit, a 99.69% gain. 10,000 plus $20,000 loan invested created $15,514 or 155.14% gain.

10,000 plus $30,000 loan invested created $21,058 or 210.58% gain.

The “Silver Dip 2018” update shows that this ratio is even higher now than it was in 2015 so investing in silver ETFs leveraged with British pound loans may create extraordinary profits this year.

The “Silver Dip 2018”  how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get a British pound loan.

Low Interest Loan

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2018” shows how to borrow British pounds right now for less than 2%.  The report shows another currency that can be borrowed for less than 1%.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.  “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Imagine how my interest was aroused when in 2015, silver was in a similar crashed position and the British pound was again worth $1.55.  Low priced silver (compared to gold) and a 1.55 dollar per pound forex parity created an ideal condition for a speculation in silver.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Gold is the cornerstone of the Silver Dip.  When silver prices are too high or low versus gold, then the conditions become ideal for a silver speculation, if gold’s price is stable or too low.

Yet gold is one of the hardest assets to value.  As a gold bug who has been investing in gold since the mid 1970s, I know this is true.  I have seen too many predictions over the decades that have been wrong and I doubt that this will change in our lifetimes.

In the spring of 2018, the ideal conditions returned and I began updating the “Silver Dip 2018” report.

Gold fits the ideal criteria for speculation.  Gold is a good value now.

The “Silver Dip 2018” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2018” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2018” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2018  $39.95

Gary


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