Value Reflection


Here is why we need to use mathematically based value information, rather than economic news, to make investment decisions.

Come back with me in time.

Take advantage of my 50 years investing experience.

Gain lessons learned from my decisions.

And sometimes stupidity.

I was a gold and silver speculator in the 1970s and 1980s.

I made a lot of money.

Then I gave most of it back…

Stupid.

My profits came when gold and silver spiked in the late 1970s.

“This will go on forever”, I thought.

“Instability between the USA and the Soviet Union will push up the price of  gold.”

I thought.

Secretary Brezhnev died November, 10 1982.  A power struggle took place in the Kremlin.  Yuri Andropov became the new General Secretary.  US−Soviet relations deteriorated rapidly.   In March 1983, President Ronald Reagan dubbed the Soviet Union an “evil empire”.   September 1, 1983 the Soviets shot down of Korean Air Lines Flight 007  with 269 people including a sitting US congressman, Larry McDonald.

“Gold is really going to sky rocket now!”

I thought.

I bought!

This historical chart of gold’s price (that period is lined in red) shows how that went well.

gold

Gold’s price crashed.

I lost.

Let’s apply this lesson to yesterday’s wall Street Journal article “Gold Prices Fall to Seven-Week Low as Dollar Strengthens” (1)

The article says:  Gold prices fell to a nearly two-month low Monday, weighed down by a stronger dollar.

Gold for December delivery edged down 0.7% to $1,275.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange—the most actively traded gold contract’s lowest close since Aug. 8. Prices have fallen in four of the last five sessions and in three consecutive weeks since hitting their highest level in more than a year, with concerns about interest-rate increases and a stronger dollar hurting the precious metal.

Investors have also largely shaken off recent geopolitical risks, weakening demand for gold and other haven assets that typically rise during times of political turbulence. Gold prices fell Monday even after voters in Catalonia backed independence from Spain in a referendum that was boycotted by opponents and marred by violence, and after President Donald Trump rejected dialogue with North Korea.

This could suggest that its time to sell gold.

My math based value assessment suggest the opposite.

It’s closer to the time to buy gold.

There are seven layers of tactics in the value based Purposeful investing (Pi) strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

An “ideal condition” is a rare distortion of an economic fundamental that history has shown “almost always” reverses itself.  

The words “almost always” indicates that there is always risk, but our in depth analysis of gold’s price at Pi shows that based on inflation anytime gold drops below $1,225 the price is distorted, is a good value and is time to buy.

In other words we are at a price where its almost time to begin accumulating gold.

More of  yesterday’s Wall Street Journal news “U.S. Stocks Close at Records” (2)  suggest that US shares are really hot.  The article says: Dow industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 close at records together for the first time since July.  Major U.S. stock indexes advance.  Euro falls after Catalan vote. Spanish bonds, stocks under pressure.  U.S. stocks clinched new records Monday, as fresh economic data bolstered investors’ beliefs in a resilient economy.

Over past decades I have experienced how readers react when markets continually jump from high point to high, so I am issuing the following warning for the third time in a week.

No one knows when the super heated US stock market will begin its next bear trend.

What we do know is the value of the US market compared to its history and to other stock markets around the world.

The numbers below from Keppler Asset Management, another source of data we follow at Pi,  shows that the price-to-book of the MSCI US Share Index at 3.13 price-to-book is still well below the super inflated price to book of 4.23 in December 1999.

keppler

A bear will again descend on Wall Street.

The autumn and winter months ahead are a likely time.

Yet we cannot be sure.

We can still see profits and growth in US shares and we will… until we won’t.

All stock markets have risk and volatility, but that if you invest in the top ten good value markets, that have a price-to-book of just 1.43,  this is a much better deal than paying 3.13 price to book  for US shares that are their record high.

Take extra caution in your equity investments now.  The volatility quotient of the DJI is about 10%.

The trend is bullish so the trend won’t break until the DJI drops below 20,000.

That could happen in minutes tomorrow… or any day.

Remain alert.  Short-term trading algorithms can cause market trends to shift at astounding speed.

Prepare now what you will do if the markets panic.

Create a plan based on math based good value economic data.

Include watching the price of gold.

When the crash comes, stick to you plan.

Do not panic.

Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.

Do not let feelings influence you too much.  Use logic and math instead.

Gary

Increase Safety – Earn More

garyheadshot

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value. 

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

  Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: gold prices edge lower

(2) www.wsj.com: stock markets off to a strong start

 


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