Stock Markets & Time

Is it time for the US stock market to fall? 


Albert Einstein on time and money:

Albert Einstein helped humanity understand that time is relative.  He also had something to say about time and money when he said this about compound interest.

Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” – Albert Einstein

Einstein had a good point about compound interest but never considered zero and negative interest.  Compound returns over 30 or 40 years at zero return are still zero!  This fact has left us in stock value territory that is really unknown.

So let’s ask the question again…. Is it time for the US stock market to fall?

Maybe the market will rise.  Maybe it will fall.  No one knows, so let’s take time and look at stock market timing, the value of time in the market and most important, the value of time in our lives.

The Wall Street Journal article, “This Market Can’t Go on Much Longer” (1) seems to think the market is headed for a crash.

The article says:  The stock market has surged 20% since the election as much has gone right and little wrong. That hardly ever lasts.  The stock market has surged 20% since the election, making it expensive by almost any measure. The drivers of the rally are well-known: Strong corporate earnings, solid global growth, central bank stimulus and a relatively stable global geopolitical environment. These positives have made the market one of the calmest of all time, which has given investors more confidence and further boosted stocks.

Can those factors continue? In most cases-no, though the timing and size of the next shift is impossible to know. But these trends are interconnected and have reinforced one another on the way up. A crack in one could have an outsize impact on the rest. U.S. stocks have been the best performing asset class in the world for three years running, returning an average of nearly 16% annually.  This year is on track to top 20%.  To get here, lot of things have gone right and almost nothing wrong.  That hardly ever lasts.

This means it is time to get out of the US stock market.  Right?

Wait a minute…

Another Wall Street Journal article one day later, “Are Stock Prices Dangerously High?” (2), tells a different tale.

This article says:  It Depends How You Look at It.  These three P/E measurements are alarming. So why hasn’t it mattered?

Hot-Stock Rally Tests the Patience of a Choosy Lot: Value Investors.  Value funds around the globe are on track to post their worst performance since before the financial crisis.  U.S. stocks have set record after record this year, pleasing investors who might have expected a post election slump.  However, have prices soared to levels that are too risky?

Today, the P/E for the stocks in the S&P 500 index is about 24, meaning investors pay $24 for every $1 in corporate earnings. That’s quite high compared with the historical average of about 15 or 16, but not so high compared with some periods of crisis in the past—more than 40 around the dot-com bubble and above 100 after the financial crisis broke. To return to average, prices would have to tumble or earnings would have to skyrocket.

Some experts note, however, that it isn’t unusual, or particularly risky,  for the P/E to be somewhat higher than average when interest rates and inflation are unusually low.

So is the market going to fall or not?

We are not asking the right question…

These Golden Rules of Investing show us why:

#1: There is always something we do not know.   The only certainty is that periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.

#2:  Invest in inexpensive equities that are paying a reasonable return.  Expect 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global nominal GDP growth and long term earnings’ growth plus risk premium.  To attain higher growth, you must either increase risk or trust luck.

#3: The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time.  This short term process leaves too little time to analyze and forecast.  Markets move short term based on emotion and are unpredictable.  Markets move long term based on value and are predictable.  Place a higher priority on numbers rather than good stories.  Make your routine repeatable, so good shares can be found again and again.

We have 24 hours a day, a limited commodity that erodes minute by minute.  How will we spend it?  Time is potentially the most important factor in our life, so it makes sense to a repeatable routine that finds good shares again and again and takes as little time as possible.

Value funds around the globe are on track to post their worst performance since before the financial crisis.

The only certainty is that periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.

We have seen a period of high performance in the US market.  We have seen a period of low performance in good value stock markets.  It’s time to save time and invest in country ETFs of good value markets.


(1) This market can’t go on much longer

(2) Are stock prices dangerously high. It depends on how you look at it

50 Year Advantage


My 50 years of investing experience helped subscribers in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) recently earn 98.68% profit in eight months without investing an extra penny.  Now there is something bigger.

In November 2015, silver had dropped to a special low price.  The gold-silver spread had reached a historic high.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF ( symbol “SLV”) was priced at US$13.60 per share.

The British pound parity was US$1.54 US dollars per share.

We issued a special report (Silver Dip 2015) to Pi subscribers showing how a 30 year cycle and the risk reward ratio had tipped towards using a British pound margin account to invest in the silver ETF “SLV”.

Here is what happened to an investment of US$10,000 with an additional margin loan of  6,500 pounds.  The 6,500 pounds were converted to US$10,000.  The total $20,000 was invested in SLV at US$13.60.  This purchased 1,470 shares of the “SLV” ETF.

Eight months later “SLV” shares reached $19.22.  Those shares were worth US$28,253.

Paying off the 6,500 pound loan cost only US$8,325 because the pound, due in part to Brexit, had crashed to $1.29.  After the loan payoff, the balance was US$19,868.

The profit in eight months was $9,868 or 98.68% of the original $10,000 invested.

When a new profit potential came up I updated the report into “Silver Dip 2017” which I would like to send you.  See below how to get this $39.95 value FREE.

I have been writing and speaking about international investments for five decades so this is not the first time Pi subscribers made profits off leverage.  Earlier, subscribers received a report entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” that showed how shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro could also bring a fast profit with minimal risk.

What a ride!  The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in just three monthsThe Dow Jones Industrial average rose 9.5% in the same period.  Those who borrowed yen and invested in the Dow Jones industrial average earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5% in three months.

Earlier, we helped readers earn up to 266.3% in one year using Swiss franc and yen margin loans.  Then we recommended getting out of all the shares and investing in Danish & Swedish bonds before the 2007 to 2009 global stock market crash.  Again and again we have helped subscribers spot special, profit generating distortions that are risk adverse when an investor has time to let the opportunity correct.

Yet our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value.  Our purpose is to save time as we invest for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.  Let’s put our time to better use.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with mathematical science can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.


Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.

Research published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of using this ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at this Golden Ratio of 1.6 to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses this in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver had crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce.  At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.  As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

The “Silver Dip 2017” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.  I’ll give you a hint… the new report might better be named the Platinum Dip

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

Order the Silver Dip here for $39.95

Or see below how to get this report FREE and Save $171.90

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual renewal fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.   Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” for a total savings of $171.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2017 right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know anytime within 60 days.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2107”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $171.90.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.


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