The Art of Speculation


After 50 years of global investing, my chief mantra is “There is always something we don’t know!”   

This fact rules the price of gold and precious metals which is why I look at owning them is never an investment but a speculation.  Precious metals are financial insurance against inflation for sure.  But isn’t all insurance a speculation ?  I have never had a fire in my house, yet fire insurance does make sense.

So let’s look at how to refine the process of buying, selling and owning precious metals a bit more.   For example see why the Kunlun mountains (below) can have an impact on the price of gold, that’s not even related to mining.

india

The Kunlun Mountains.

In February and March 2017, a significant economic event took place that can have an impact on the price of gold.

Updates in our Purposeful investing Course look at ideal speculative opportunities in precious metals.   One ideal condition we track is the gold platinum ratio when the price of platinum is lower than the price of gold.

Platinum dropping below gold is a historical distortion that rarely happens.

Unless there has been a most basic change in the relationship between these two precious metals, whenever platinum costs less than gold, we speculate on the simple fact that platinum’s price will rise faster than gold’s until this distortion has equalized.

Yet the facts that dictate the prices of precious metals are rarely simple.

For example, there is conjecture that the growth of electric cars will reduce the need for platinum in catalytic converters.  This could be since about half of platinum’s demand has been for this purpose.  Yet let’s keep in mind, it is estimated, that one-fifth of everything we use either contains platinum or requires platinum in its manufacture.  Plus the gold platinum relationship existed well before catalytic converters and platinum still sold for more than gold.

Another example is that the price of gold could drop.  Platinum’s price could rise faster than gold, but if gold is plunging, platinum could outperform gold but stagnate or drop as well.

The relationship between gold and platinum is simple, but there are many factors that have an impact on the price of gold.  European interest rates, US and global inflation, US interest rates, US dollar strength, US job market, US economic growth, US trade deficit, crude oil are a few.   The chart below shows the importance of gold to interest rates.  So the current rising trend of US interest rates could hinder a rise in the price of gold.

gold

Chart from Marketrealist.com (1).

An article at Marketrealist.com:  “Why real interest rates impact gold prices?” (1)  helps explain why US interest rates matter to the price of gold.

Gold is used as an investment alternative.  Investors think that it protects money’s purchasing power.  As an investment, it has to compete against other investments that are available in the market.  The interest rate is a big factor here because it determines the attractiveness of those investment alternatives.  As real interest rates rise—interest rates adjusted for inflation—other investments usually become more attractive.  This reduces the demand for gold and vice versa.  Gold usually has an inverse relationship with real interest rates.

Rising US interest rates are a downwards pressure for gold prices and gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  Since gold and platinum (and silver) are related, US interest rates also have an impact on these precious metals.

What many investors miss is the fact that Chinese and Indian interest rates are also important factors that affect the price of gold.  Both Chinese and Indian cultures have a historical leaning towards trusting and owning gold.  They are becoming increasingly important factors as China and India become larger parts of the global economy. 

If one eliminates Switzerland (the biggest importer of gold with over 70 billion worth of gold imports), Asia is the largest importer of gold (90 + billion worth compared to Europe’s 30 + billion).  China and India are the two largest Asian importers by far.

Increasing yuan and rupee real interest rates will stimulate investors to build up savings in those currencies instead of gold.  This is a downward pressure on gold prices and gold-backed ETFs.

After more than a year of steady interest rates, in both February and March 2017, the People’s Bank of China raised yuan interest rates.

yuan

Indian interest rates continue to fall, but should also be watched.

indian interest

Indian Rupee interest rate – both charts from www.tradingeconomics.com (2)

Here is another interesting question.  If interest rates in these Asian countries impact gold’s price, what would be the impact of an Indian/Chinese conflict or war?  China and India have long had border tensions.  There was a Sino-Indian War in 1962 over disputed Himalayan borders.  At that time, the Chinese launched offensives in Ladakh and across a line (McMahon Line) regarded by India as the legal national border that disputed by China.  Disagreements have remained since that time.

The book “Why India Is Not a Great Power (Yet)” by Bharat Karnad, outlines a number of events that could lead to a Chinese Indian conflict. One of the causes could be these tensions that include border skirmishes. Tibetan protests and maritime disputes are others.

Karnad, a professor of National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, suggest that India should be more aggressive to increase its position on the world stage.

His suggestions include nuclear land mines in the Himalayan passes, arming China’s neighbors like Vietnam with cruise missiles and atomic weapons, and actively assisting armed uprisings in Tibet.

Could any of these steps create a spike in the price of gold and consequently silver and platinum?

Screen Shot 2017-04-10 at 9.11.49 AM

Learn more about “Why India is not a great power (yet)?”

This image from India.org (3) shows a meeting between Chinese and Indian military at a conflicted border.  What happens if minor arguments as described in the article turn into something more serious?

Screen Shot 2017-04-10 at 9.20.36 AM

The distance of Tibet to the US east cost is about 8,500 miles.  What events, so many miles and times zones away, might be taking place that can have a serious impact on our wealth?

The answer is that we do not know and this is why ownership of precious metals is a speculative proposition.  Rising interest rates in China and India could cause prices to fall, but a skirmish or two or the planting of a few atomic mines and precious metal prices could skyrocket like they are nuclear powered.  Well, in a way they would be.

There is always something we do not know which is why when we speculate, especially in precious metals, we never risk more than we can afford to lose.  We leave plenty of time for the investments to mature.  Our recent Pi Update explains how to calculate profit and loss in precious metal speculations.

Gary

(1) Tradingeconomics.com:  Yuan interest rate

(2) Marketrealist.com:  What rising US real interest rates mean to gold investors

(3) Zeenews.india.com  China upset by reported hut demolition on India border

Silver Trends Down

Silver is falling. 

slv

Chart from finance.yahoo.com/chart/SLV?

Recently the silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV)  was priced 18.62% below the highest close of $19.60 from last August.   The mathematical system we track created a stop loss price of $16.18, showing that this precious metal moved into selling territory.  Now the share price is in the $15 per ounce range.

Gold has been in a buy position since April 2017 but both platinum and silver have stopped out and are in sell positions.  Let me explain why mathematics shows why we won’t be buying gold and are watching silver and platinum, plus are especially interested in Canadian shares.

We Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether one likes to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Mathematical based investing can put us on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

History shows, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

Using math makes it simple, easy and inexpensive to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

These trending algorithms use the math that spotted the current condition of silver.

Use math to spot distortions that create ideal conditions for speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Our math based study has created an ideal price for gold and though its trending up it has passed the good value level we use.  Gold is still okay, but not a bargain any more.  Value investors only seek bargains.

More importantly we use the price of gold and its relation to the price of silver and platinum to spot ideal times for speculation.

In 2015, Pi recommended speculating in silver because of a dip in the price of silver.   We sent Pi subscribers a report entitled Silver Dip 2015.   That tactic returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.

In 2017, Platinum speculation is even better.

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written and is available to Pi subscribers to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip Report of 1986” was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar/pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we eliminated the cost of paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

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Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days, and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

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Gary


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