Cash in on Trees


Here are three ways to profit financially from trees.

I love trees.  Maybe this comes from childhood.   A farm covered in huge Douglas firs was right behind our house.  We built tree houses and loved climbing those trees.  Douglas firs are very easy trees to climb and the world’s perspective changes when you are looking at a panorama from a hundred feet in the sky.  The smell, the fresh air, the pitch (my mom hated that pitch on my cloths), the view, the sense of coziness created my life long love of trees.

gary-scott-wood

Here I am checking out one of the large Hemlocks on our North Carolina farm.

We all profit from trees even if we never invest in them.   Food, clothing and shelter.  Wood provides much of each, not to mention air.

Fortunately the world has a lot of trees.  Not long ago Yale researchers did some calculations and came up with, what they believe , are the most precise calculations of how many trees there are on earth, over 3 trillion trees.  That’s  over 400 trees a person and thank goodness for that.  I can hardly say enough about trees.  Trees create ecosystems, provide habitats and convert carbon dioxide and potentially harmful gasses into wood and oxygen.  One large tree can supply a day’s supply of oxygen for four people.

Their importance in almost every walk of life make trees a good and important investment.  Our website is filled with information about timber, as a commodity investment.  The timber sector can balance a portfolio at times such as now when the US stock market is inflated.  Timber has a low correlation to other asset classes and adds steadiness to a portfolio.

Timber has shown itself to be a good long term investment.  While a tree may seem boring compared to the newest iPhone or app or technology, timber has been pretty exciting as an investment.  Raw timberland and forest ownership have been excellent long term investments that have outpaced inflation.  They have an added benefit; when prices for lumber are low, companies can withhold harvesting logs.  When prices rise, they not only profit on the higher log price, but they make more money per tree since the forest has grown.  There are no storage fees and trees are a sustainable commodity.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, timber has outpaced the S&P 500 and has risen by approximately 15% each year since 1987 (save one bad year during the U.S. housing crash).  During the Great Depression, when stocks fell roughly 70%, timber investments soared by more than 200%.  Moving forward to the most recent recession, the S&P dipped more than 35% in 2008 while the wooden commodity actually gained 9.5%.

This graph below from “Why invest in timberland risk and return” (1) shows that Timber was a strong investment sector, after venture capital and private equity,  from 1990 to 2011.

timber

Recently as Wall Street has bubbled, timber has lagged behind, but this may have changed as I explain below.  First let’s look at three ways to invest in trees.

First Way to Earn With Trees – Buy a forest.

leaf change

Entrance to our house in North Carolina.

This is one approach Merri and I have taken.  We purchased timberland and live on it in the summer.  We have a commercial grove of oranges we live on in the winter.

I have not yet logged any living trees at the farm though I have had a consulting forester take a look.  Sustainable harvesting of timber is one of the best ways to preserve the health of a forest.   Managed, sustainable timber harvesting, generates income and encourages regeneration and the long-term well-being of woods.   Correct harvesting keeps stands open and healthy, builds wildlife habitat, and creates room for new growth.

What we have done is logged dead trees and turn their lumber into beautiful tables, cabinets and floors.

The benefits of this approach goes so far beyond just the investment, if you love living in nature.   To see more on how we are earning from wood on the farm, click here.

Second Way to Earn With Trees – Invest in a plantation.

tfs corp

TFS Corp share chart from au.finance.yahoo.com

Merri and I have taken this approach as well with our investment in TFS Corporation the only viable Sandalwood producing plantation in the world.  You can learn more about this investment which we have been writing about regularly since 2013.

This has been a great investment, up to $1.62 from the $1.19 when we forst wroet about it.  We however are looking for this share to reach $10.

You can learn more about “Sandalwood at Sandalwood Makes News Again” (2)

Third Way to Earn With Trees – Invest in a timber ETF or REIT.

We can see how timber companies have lagged behind if we compare the of the S&P 500 in the past five years to the Timber ETF iShares S&P Timber Index ETF (Symbol WOOD).

timber

Wood share chart from finance.yahoo.com/quote/wood

Wood is an ETF that seeks to track the investment results of the S&P Global Timber & Forestry IndexTM.  This fund aims to  invest at least 90% of its assets in shares of the index or related investments.  The index is comprised of approximately 24 of the largest publicly-traded companies engaged in the ownership, management or upstream supply chain of forests and timberlands.

We can also see a similar situation when we look at the chart of Weyerhauser, a huge timber REIT.

timber

Wy share chart from finance.yahoo.com/quote/WY

Weyerhaeuser Co. is a real estate investment trust.   It primarily invests in the United States.  The firm operates under four business segments, timberlands, wood products, cellulose fibers and real estate.  It owns timberlands primarily in the U.S and has long-term licenses in Canada.

These equities have been featured at our site in the past, but the reason I have brought this to attention is that both WOOD and WY are now in the green zone at Tradestops.com.

Our Purposeful investing Course tracks two mathematical approaches to investing.

One math based analysis we track is the Keppler Asset Management Analysis which looks at all stocks in 43 stock markets globally.  Then it assesses which of these markets are good value,  neutral value and poor value based on factors such as average, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield, of all the shares in that market.

The second analysis is at Tradestops.com.  Tradestops provides an algorithm based platform that measures a huge database of shares globally.   Each share’s activity is calculated and a Volatility Quotient (VQ) is designated based on the shares volatility norm.

Based on this VQ, Tradestops tracks each share in the data base and assigns a Stock State Indicator (SSI) that reflects the trend of the stock.  The SSI places each stock in one of five states.

If the algorithms show the stock is trending up or has not hit its SSI Stop Loss it is considered to be on an uptrend and safe to keep holding.  The system provides three yellow alerts if the stock is still trending upwards, but has corrected below a recent high, it has not yet hit it’s stop price and is trending upwards.  The next alert is when a share is moving sideways and is neither trending upwards nor downwards. The third yellow alert is when the stock starts trending downwards.

Finally there is a red stop loss alert that indicates a stock has corrected more than it’s VQ% below a recent high, and a signal that it is not behaving in a way that is usual, based on it’s historical market trend.

You can learn how to use the Tradestops.com to improve investing discipline here.

Here is an example of the analysis that Tradestops provides on each share.

tradestops

tradestops

The fact that both WOOD and WY are in a Tradestops green zone suggests that timber investments are trending up now.

Adding a timber position into one’s  strategic plan makes a lot of sense now.

Gary

(1) www.tirllc.com: Why invest in timberland risk and return

(2) Sandalwood Makes News Again

Gain Comfort, Time and a Value With Pi

If you subscribe to our Purposeful investing Course today, you’ll get our Value Investing Seminar online FREE

The goal of our seminar is not to make money one time, but show how to repeatedly find special profit opportunities that enhance safety as they increase profit.

Learn an investing strategy that reduces stress with slow, worry free purposeful tactics that cash in on financial rather than economic news.

I am sending this report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” to subscribers of the Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  this weekend and want to give you a chance to  save $517.90 if you subscribe to Pi.

The annual fee for Pi is $299.  I have reduced this to $197 in this special offer.  You receive the updated for 2017 $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  You receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  You also receive the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits” plus our $297 online seminar for total savings of $517.90.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197

Learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in a special offer described below.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Start this weekend.  Learn how to improve the safety and profit of your savings and investments by selecting diversified, good value investments in a multi-currency portfolio during stock market downturns.  Few decisions are as important to our wealth as the value of the markets and currencies we invest in.

Double Risk

Many investors missing the great long term risk, the falling US dollar.  The greenback has been strong for the past five years, but this is temporary.   The dollar’s strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was a temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  In the 1980’s that dollar strength lasted five years.  Then the dollar collapsed over 50% versus major currencies.  Now the greenback is in a similar place.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates created  a bigger than normal stock breakout, but the US market has been in an overall bear trend since 2000.  Now both, the market and the greenback are scheduled to fall.

This year I celebrate my 51st anniversary in the investing business and 49th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to under perform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term, under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn what I am doing with my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

We’ll update the good  value markets for the beginning of 2017 next week, but the markets included in this 2016 portfolio are:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

The online seminar also reveals how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.

The seminar also discloses the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and the service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

I share the results of this test in the seminar.  The savings that can be gained on any purchase of country ETFs has the potential to be more than the cost of the seminar.

gary-scott-seminar

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches exactly what to do in situations such as we are seeing in global stock markets now.   This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that turn market turmoil into extra profit.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  Another tactic is to have staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, and when we believe in the basic mathematics of value, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2017” about a new leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2016.

Subscribers who acted on the report when it was originally issued  picked up a fast 54.1% profit.  The report updates what to do in 2017.

Save $517.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2016”, the $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”  and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $517.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 


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