The Power of Positive Part #1


Problems create opportunity and opportunity creates problems.

See three problems in three years and how to profit from a $10 billion war chest being built by major banks… what to do now that the fiscal cliff has been avoided and insights on how to invest during the looming battle over gun rights.

We had an unexpected high number of enrollments for next week’s Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.   What a great opportunity!  The problem?  Our scheduled meeting room was too small.   Like a cascading fractal… life’s problem’s created by opportunity create more opportunity.  This is the exponential power of positive!

In this case, the problem of a larger meeting hall brings opportunity in Eustis. Florida.

eustis florida

Merri and Mah at the Lake Eustis Park in Old Eustis.

This site has posted many messages about real estate value in Florida and especially in Lake County.

Like Ecuador… Florida real estate has one really big advantage… sunshine.    Plus Florida real estate prices fell more than in many areas of the US… so they will rebound higher.

This creates a special opportunity we’ll look at in a moment.    First back to Eustis…. because there is a special little known potential there in the name of the Lake Community Foundation.

In 2004, Florida Hospital Waterman relocated to a new site and donated its Eustis property to the Foundation.   The revenue from the sale/redevelopment of the property is designated for charities and a comprehensive plan has been created.

eustis map

The area is developing nicely but there is one large parcel (C) not yet sold and designated for a hotel.

This and the fact that Eustis is one of the few cities that has not allowed development along the waterfront makes it extra attractive for its small town (15,000 population) and natural feel.

Merri and I have been buying real estate in this area for over three years now.  We took a stroll along Lake Eustis visiting restaurants.

While our friends and readers in the north and Pacific Northwest were struggling in the cold and snow, we enjoyed mid 70s and clear skies.

eustis florida

Lake Eustis.

We dined outside at the Lake Eustis Deli.

eustis florida

There are numerous picnic tables and this is a perfect place for a casual lunch.

Eustis also offers some exceptional real estate values already without the little known benefit.

For example this house is offered for $199,000.

eustis florida

This is near the lake.

eustis florida

Here is a photo I took (with a telephoto lens) the six blocks from this house to the lake.

eustis florida

Yet it has been on the market for a year and I suspect it will sell for less.

We have asked our friend and real estate broker, Shirley Peacock, to have a list of Eustis properties for sale and to be available for seminar delegates.

We will look at how to spot value in problems at this weekend’s Super Thinking + Investing and Business seminar.

Here are a few examples we’ll review of recent problems and our positive take on each.

#1  Problem:  Real Estate Collapse and hard to get mortgages. Winning Idea: Invest in real estate for rentals

A January 22, 2013 article in USA Today entitled “Rental Investors pant for next hot home market”  tells how home shoppers are now seeing multiple offers, bidding wars and shrinking supplies of homes for sale as investors swoop in.

Major institutional investors are amassing a $10 billion war chest to pursue the single-family rental market, JPMorgan Chase estimated in a recent research report.

This site posted an article about investing in rentals in December 2011.  Here is an excerpt.

Rentals are rising from the ruins.

economist graphs

From November 5, 2011 Economist article linked below “Rising from the ruins”

This site has promoted the idea of investing in necessities at this time… food… agriculture… shelter.

This site has always promoted the idea of having assets in more than one country.

Let’s look at why rental opportunities in North America must grow.

Excerpts from a November 5, 2011 Economist article “Rising from the ruins” explains why” The housing market still looks grim, but the rental side hints at recovery

THERE are two things everyone knows about American economic recoveries. The first is that the housing sector traditionally leads the economy out of recession. The second is that there is no chance of the housing sector leading the present economy anywhere, except deeper into the mire. In the two years after the recession of the early 1980s housing investment rose 56%; it is down 6.3% in the present recovery. America is saddled with a debilitating overhang of excess housing, the thinking goes, and as a result is doomed to years of slow growth and underemployment.

The economic landscape is unquestionably littered with the wreckage of the crash. Home prices languish near post-bubble lows, over 30% below peak. The plunge in prices has left nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers owing more than the value of their homes; nearly 10m are seriously delinquent on their loans or in foreclosure. The hardest-hit markets are ghost neighbourhoods, filled with dilapidated properties. Housing markets are far from healthy. Yet current pessimism seems overdone. A turnaround in sales, prices and construction may be closer than many imagine.

Rental markets, by contrast, look far stronger. America’s rental vacancy rate stood at 9.8% in the third quarter of 2011, down from a high above 11% in 2009. Vacancy rates in some cities are strikingly low—2.4% in New York City, for instance, and 3.6% in San Francisco—which translates into rising rents. Nationally, rents rose 2.1% in the year to August, in stark contrast to house prices (see chart 2).

economist graphs

Strength in the market for rentals is beginning to seep into the more troubled owner-occupied sector. Rising rents help housing markets heal on both the supply and demand side, by encouraging renters to consider buying and through the movement of supply into the rental market, easing the glut of houses for sale. The Obama administration hopes to take advantage of better rental conditions to unload some of the more than 200,000 foreclosed-on homes held by the two government-sponsored mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration (which account for roughly half of all such inventory), on to investors who may rent the properties out.

Rental-market strength is also rousing a long-dormant building industry. New housing starts rose 15% from August to September of this year, driven by a 53% surge in new structures containing five units or more. In the three months to September construction employment rose by 29,000 jobs. The sector is still some 2.2m jobs below its pre-recession peak, and new hiring there would help a dismal labour market.

Problem #2:  The Fiscal Cliff.   Winning Ideas: Borrow Yen. Invest in dollars.   The cliff was bound to be avoided and the dollar to rise. The yen was obviously too strong.

A December 12, 2012  message at this site said: Yen leverage has remained a wonderful overall long term strategy for 20 years.  Yen interest rates have normally been near or under 3% for 20 years!  Any  loan that was invested for more than 3% enjoyed pure extra profit!

Now the yen is too strong again (in my humble opinion).   Plus as you see below yen interest rates now are as low as 2%.

If I am correct, this is a good time to short the Japanese yen.

There are two easy ways to make this short yen speculation… one is through ETFs.

The way to short the yen is to borrow yen and use the loan to make investments that earn more than 3% in currencies that are likely to rise against the yen.

Since that article the dollar has risen from 82 yen per dollar to 90 yen per dollar bringing a double digit profit in a month.

yahoo.com chart

Dollar yen chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

Problem #3:  Government buying ammunition. Winning Idea: Shares in Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK). 

yahoo.com chart

Chart of ATK shares at www.finance.yahoo.com

Shares of ATK have risen from $57 to $66 per share since we wrote:  I stumbled across ATK because of a potential problem. Numerous readers began sending me copies of websites headlines like this: Fears that federal authorities are preparing for mass civil unrest have increased after it was revealed that the Department of Homeland Security is planning to buy a further 750 million rounds of ammo in addition to the 450 million rounds of hollow point bullets already purchased earlier this year.

The buzz is that the current administration is afraid of civil unrest in the USA and is arming up.

Perhaps so but my thinking focused on value instead of anarchy.  Instead of asking… is this true or not… what is the government’s intention… I asked… Who will make all that money?

For a fact… there is very little I can do about the government or its expenditures.  There is a lot I can do in my own actions and investing.

So I looked and found this news at fiance.yahoo.com:   ATK Delivers 2 Billion 7.62mm Rounds to the U.S. Army from the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant (LCAAP).  ATK Delivers More than 350 Million 5.56mm Enhanced Performance Rounds Using Modernized Production Line Equipment
.   ATK Receives $131 Million in Small-Caliber Ammunition Orders

Over the past 10 years, the company produced an average return on equity of 31.51% by using financial leverage.

ATK debt is high but during the recession it never had problems with debt service.  All these facts suggest that  the shares of ATK are good value.

A little investigation found that stocks in the defense sector have been selling at historically cheap valuations and that ATK shares were selling a ratios far below the industry average. ATK Price/Earnings is 6.2 compared to an industry average of 13.2. ATK  Price/Book is 1.3 compared to industry average of  3.0 and its Price/Sales Ratio is 0.4 compared to 0.8.

The 10 year average P/E ratio for its shares has been 18% but is currently below 10%  about half  the ten year average.

These facts coupled with recent events in the Middle East suggest even more spending will be for defense.

Share the world’s  problems and how to gain the power of positive to turn them into opportunity this weekend in Eustis, Florida.

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Overcome Election Deceit

Tuesday, November 8, 2016, is the 58th US Presidential election.  Plus elections for all of the seats in Congress and 34 in the Senate.  How many deals will be made between now and then that could reduce our pocketbooks?  What trade offs will be agreed that will weaken our personal freedom?  Which agreements will fill our days with more red tape?

There is so much deceit in the political promises and so much deal making that has nothing to do with the country’s or you and my good.  What can we do to retake control?  How can we see behind the scenes and stop the erosion of our rights and reductions in our standards of living?

Politically there may be little we can do, but here are two tools for our individual investing survival:   numbers and words.

Numbers relate to value.   Our wealth can survive today’s political onslaught and grow by spotting investing value through mathematical precision.  Good value strengthens wealth and beats back a deceitful world.

Words define the law.  Words create laws that define our rights, ownership and freedom.   These words are also used to take these benefits away.  Those who write the laws always include sections that protect themselves and their common interests.   A good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning can use the same words to protect our income savings and rights.

As a run up to my 50th year of speaking and writing about savings and investments around the world I decided to ask my friends who are mathematical and legal geniuses to share a weekend with us to cut through the fog of rapid change and learn how to beat the system that seems so integrity challenged.

 

Gary Scott

1966

gary scott

2015

The idea of using math to find good value equity investments led me to ask mathematical analyst, Michael Keppler, to join us in the Blue Ridge for a seminar.

Fwd: keppler

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short ups and downs.

Don’t Red Line Your Investments

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of good value markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.  His mathematical predictions have been eerily accurate as the red line below shows.

Each quarter Michael shares with me (and other professional investors) his “Total Return Predictions”.

Screen Shot 2015-07-16 at 7.23.02 PM

Click on chart to enlarge.

This chart shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, he started in 1993.  Keppler contnually shows what his mathematic formulas predict for markets four years ahead.  These numbers are based on mathematical relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years moving forward in monthly increments.  In this way Keppler uses numbers to continually  adjust to the ever-changing market norm.

Keppler’s chart includes two remarkable episodes.  The first in the period when global equity markets peaked and crashed over a five-year period from 1997  to 2001.  Keppler’s Equally-Weighted World Index predictions stayed above the upper forecast band and accurately predicted the recovery and how much global markets would rise.

The second remarkable period started in October 2008, when again Keppler’s forecasts again accurately showed where markets would reach as they fell below the lower forecast band.

Imagine the extra profit professional investors have today when they invested in these depressed good value markets before they again rose.

Keppler’s projections now indicate that global markets are expected to rise from between 2.1%  and 13.0 % in the next three to five years.

Learn about Keppler’s projections and about Asset Allocation from Michael Keppler in person at our Value Investing Seminar October 17 & 18 in Jefferson, North Carolina.  

Learn how to also let the law work for you.

les-share

One way to protect our wealth and freedom is to have a good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning so you can also be protected rather than hurt by the law.   

I have also asked our friend of more than 30 years, Leslie Share, to speak at the October Value Investing seminar.  Leslie is an attorney in Coral Gables, Florida who specializes in general, corporate and international taxation, estate and gift tax planning, internal revenue service matters at the agent and appeals level plus most important, he specializes in wealth preservation.

He has the highest possible Peer Review Rating by Martindale-Hubbell, Florida Super Lawyers and The Best Lawyers in America.

Leslie is the type of attorney who can help gain asset and wealth protection if you live in the US or  abroad.

Cash in on the best opportunity in 32 years.  Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential then we have seen in over three decades.

Our “Investing Seminars” started 32 years ago when one of the best set of three currency and equity conditions ever existed.  Over these decades our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do.  In all those years, few times have conditions offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982.

Now three the great economic conditions have returned.

jefferson Landing

Our October seminar will be at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.

Conditions have come together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s.  The US dollar, the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s.  Knowing these conditions and why they have merged and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.

One way to tap this potential (we’ll review this at the seminar) is to invest in Keppler’s Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds).  For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.  You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.

We review Country Index ETFs at the seminar.

Join Merri, me, Michael Keppler and Leslie Share.  The “Value Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with value investing.  The course teaches how to add safety and create profits by spotting multi currency and global equity cycles through good value mathematics.

Value Investing Outside the Box.  Here is a partial syllabus of the seminar:

* See new breakout possibilities… in global investing.

* Benefits of early investments in an oil that’s up 22.8 times in the past ten years.

* Beyond Gold.  Three hard assets that protect against all currency erosion.

* The Small Country Effect. Why small markets rise more than large ones.

* Top Value small markets and how to easily invest small or large amounts.

* The best four currencies for the year ahead.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in. This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s.  Learn how to use ETFs to gain multi currency diversification.

Details in this session also include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

*  The benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver.  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars – how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* New tax strategies.  How to create businesses that earn income and reduce tax.

gary scott

Gary Scott at a multi currency session.

The seminar begins with a 1000 Year Economic Review that leads us up to where markets are now and head for the next 474 days and beyond.

Learn how to:

* Find good investing value.

* Use multi currency portfolios.

* To use multi currency for diversification-speculation & hedge.

* Earn in water and agricultural investing.

* Gain with special situations now for aggressive growth

Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina.

Join Michael Keppler, Leslie Share, Merri and me.  Enroll here $499. Couple $799.

Gary

 

Read the 2011 real estate rental article in our archives here

Read the entire September 14 ATK Message in our archives here.

Read the entire Dec 12, 2012 yen message in our archives

 


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