The Power of Positive Part #1


Problems create opportunity and opportunity creates problems.

See three problems in three years and how to profit from a $10 billion war chest being built by major banks… what to do now that the fiscal cliff has been avoided and insights on how to invest during the looming battle over gun rights.

We had an unexpected high number of enrollments for next week’s Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.   What a great opportunity!  The problem?  Our scheduled meeting room was too small.   Like a cascading fractal… life’s problem’s created by opportunity create more opportunity.  This is the exponential power of positive!

In this case, the problem of a larger meeting hall brings opportunity in Eustis. Florida.

eustis florida

Merri and Mah at the Lake Eustis Park in Old Eustis.

This site has posted many messages about real estate value in Florida and especially in Lake County.

Like Ecuador… Florida real estate has one really big advantage… sunshine.    Plus Florida real estate prices fell more than in many areas of the US… so they will rebound higher.

This creates a special opportunity we’ll look at in a moment.    First back to Eustis…. because there is a special little known potential there in the name of the Lake Community Foundation.

In 2004, Florida Hospital Waterman relocated to a new site and donated its Eustis property to the Foundation.   The revenue from the sale/redevelopment of the property is designated for charities and a comprehensive plan has been created.

eustis map

The area is developing nicely but there is one large parcel (C) not yet sold and designated for a hotel.

This and the fact that Eustis is one of the few cities that has not allowed development along the waterfront makes it extra attractive for its small town (15,000 population) and natural feel.

Merri and I have been buying real estate in this area for over three years now.  We took a stroll along Lake Eustis visiting restaurants.

While our friends and readers in the north and Pacific Northwest were struggling in the cold and snow, we enjoyed mid 70s and clear skies.

eustis florida

Lake Eustis.

We dined outside at the Lake Eustis Deli.

eustis florida

There are numerous picnic tables and this is a perfect place for a casual lunch.

Eustis also offers some exceptional real estate values already without the little known benefit.

For example this house is offered for $199,000.

eustis florida

This is near the lake.

eustis florida

Here is a photo I took (with a telephoto lens) the six blocks from this house to the lake.

eustis florida

Yet it has been on the market for a year and I suspect it will sell for less.

We have asked our friend and real estate broker, Shirley Peacock, to have a list of Eustis properties for sale and to be available for seminar delegates.

We will look at how to spot value in problems at this weekend’s Super Thinking + Investing and Business seminar.

Here are a few examples we’ll review of recent problems and our positive take on each.

#1  Problem:  Real Estate Collapse and hard to get mortgages. Winning Idea: Invest in real estate for rentals

A January 22, 2013 article in USA Today entitled “Rental Investors pant for next hot home market”  tells how home shoppers are now seeing multiple offers, bidding wars and shrinking supplies of homes for sale as investors swoop in.

Major institutional investors are amassing a $10 billion war chest to pursue the single-family rental market, JPMorgan Chase estimated in a recent research report.

This site posted an article about investing in rentals in December 2011.  Here is an excerpt.

Rentals are rising from the ruins.

economist graphs

From November 5, 2011 Economist article linked below “Rising from the ruins”

This site has promoted the idea of investing in necessities at this time… food… agriculture… shelter.

This site has always promoted the idea of having assets in more than one country.

Let’s look at why rental opportunities in North America must grow.

Excerpts from a November 5, 2011 Economist article “Rising from the ruins” explains why” The housing market still looks grim, but the rental side hints at recovery

THERE are two things everyone knows about American economic recoveries. The first is that the housing sector traditionally leads the economy out of recession. The second is that there is no chance of the housing sector leading the present economy anywhere, except deeper into the mire. In the two years after the recession of the early 1980s housing investment rose 56%; it is down 6.3% in the present recovery. America is saddled with a debilitating overhang of excess housing, the thinking goes, and as a result is doomed to years of slow growth and underemployment.

The economic landscape is unquestionably littered with the wreckage of the crash. Home prices languish near post-bubble lows, over 30% below peak. The plunge in prices has left nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers owing more than the value of their homes; nearly 10m are seriously delinquent on their loans or in foreclosure. The hardest-hit markets are ghost neighbourhoods, filled with dilapidated properties. Housing markets are far from healthy. Yet current pessimism seems overdone. A turnaround in sales, prices and construction may be closer than many imagine.

Rental markets, by contrast, look far stronger. America’s rental vacancy rate stood at 9.8% in the third quarter of 2011, down from a high above 11% in 2009. Vacancy rates in some cities are strikingly low—2.4% in New York City, for instance, and 3.6% in San Francisco—which translates into rising rents. Nationally, rents rose 2.1% in the year to August, in stark contrast to house prices (see chart 2).

economist graphs

Strength in the market for rentals is beginning to seep into the more troubled owner-occupied sector. Rising rents help housing markets heal on both the supply and demand side, by encouraging renters to consider buying and through the movement of supply into the rental market, easing the glut of houses for sale. The Obama administration hopes to take advantage of better rental conditions to unload some of the more than 200,000 foreclosed-on homes held by the two government-sponsored mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration (which account for roughly half of all such inventory), on to investors who may rent the properties out.

Rental-market strength is also rousing a long-dormant building industry. New housing starts rose 15% from August to September of this year, driven by a 53% surge in new structures containing five units or more. In the three months to September construction employment rose by 29,000 jobs. The sector is still some 2.2m jobs below its pre-recession peak, and new hiring there would help a dismal labour market.

Problem #2:  The Fiscal Cliff.   Winning Ideas: Borrow Yen. Invest in dollars.   The cliff was bound to be avoided and the dollar to rise. The yen was obviously too strong.

A December 12, 2012  message at this site said: Yen leverage has remained a wonderful overall long term strategy for 20 years.  Yen interest rates have normally been near or under 3% for 20 years!  Any  loan that was invested for more than 3% enjoyed pure extra profit!

Now the yen is too strong again (in my humble opinion).   Plus as you see below yen interest rates now are as low as 2%.

If I am correct, this is a good time to short the Japanese yen.

There are two easy ways to make this short yen speculation… one is through ETFs.

The way to short the yen is to borrow yen and use the loan to make investments that earn more than 3% in currencies that are likely to rise against the yen.

Since that article the dollar has risen from 82 yen per dollar to 90 yen per dollar bringing a double digit profit in a month.

yahoo.com chart

Dollar yen chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

Problem #3:  Government buying ammunition. Winning Idea: Shares in Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK). 

yahoo.com chart

Chart of ATK shares at www.finance.yahoo.com

Shares of ATK have risen from $57 to $66 per share since we wrote:  I stumbled across ATK because of a potential problem. Numerous readers began sending me copies of websites headlines like this: Fears that federal authorities are preparing for mass civil unrest have increased after it was revealed that the Department of Homeland Security is planning to buy a further 750 million rounds of ammo in addition to the 450 million rounds of hollow point bullets already purchased earlier this year.

The buzz is that the current administration is afraid of civil unrest in the USA and is arming up.

Perhaps so but my thinking focused on value instead of anarchy.  Instead of asking… is this true or not… what is the government’s intention… I asked… Who will make all that money?

For a fact… there is very little I can do about the government or its expenditures.  There is a lot I can do in my own actions and investing.

So I looked and found this news at fiance.yahoo.com:   ATK Delivers 2 Billion 7.62mm Rounds to the U.S. Army from the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant (LCAAP).  ATK Delivers More than 350 Million 5.56mm Enhanced Performance Rounds Using Modernized Production Line Equipment
.   ATK Receives $131 Million in Small-Caliber Ammunition Orders

Over the past 10 years, the company produced an average return on equity of 31.51% by using financial leverage.

ATK debt is high but during the recession it never had problems with debt service.  All these facts suggest that  the shares of ATK are good value.

A little investigation found that stocks in the defense sector have been selling at historically cheap valuations and that ATK shares were selling a ratios far below the industry average. ATK Price/Earnings is 6.2 compared to an industry average of 13.2. ATK  Price/Book is 1.3 compared to industry average of  3.0 and its Price/Sales Ratio is 0.4 compared to 0.8.

The 10 year average P/E ratio for its shares has been 18% but is currently below 10%  about half  the ten year average.

These facts coupled with recent events in the Middle East suggest even more spending will be for defense.

Share the world’s  problems and how to gain the power of positive to turn them into opportunity this weekend in Eustis, Florida.

Montreal Multi International Investing & Business Seminar

Multi Currency Investing Seminar October 10-11-12, 2014.

montreal

Join us for the leaf change and a multi currency investing seminar in Montreal.

The multi currency seminar looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with multi currency investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create to profit from multi currency breakouts.

Value Investing Outside the Box. Here is a partial syllabus of the Multi currency value investing seminar:

* See new breakout possibilities… in global investing.

* How to have the three point command posture. Live in one country – Earn in a second country – Bank and invest in a third country.

*  Benefits of early investments in an oil that’s up 22.8 times in the past ten years.

* Beyond Gold.  Three hard assets that protect against all currency erosion.

* The Small Country Effect.  Why small markets rise more than large ones.

* Three Top Value small markets and how to easily invest small or large amounts.

* The Borrow Low Strategy. Borrow at 3% and invest for 8.47%

* The best four currencies for the year ahead.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s… and we have worked with Jyske Bank…. one of the largest currency traders in the world for over 25 years.  We have a strategic alliance with ENR Asset Management a Canadian investment management company that works with Jyske Bank so Americans can gain multi currency investments as well as Canadian and Danish investments.

Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer will review portfolio and currency updates.  Thomas and Eric have worked with us for nearly two decades.

* Seven Strong Buy Stocks that rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.

Details in this session also include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* We’ll also look at the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.   We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s Up With Gold and Silver.  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars – how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* New tax strategies.  How to create businesses that earn income and reduce tax.

The course begins with a 1000 Year Economic Review that leads us up to where markets are in 2014.

Learn:

* How to Navigate FATCA, FBAR at Jyske Bank, one of the safest banks in the world

* Find Investing Value

* Use Viking Multi Currency Portfolios.

* What has Worked in Global Investing: 1926 to Present

* A Global Investing View from London

* Multi Currency Diversification-Speculation & Hedge

* How to Earn in Water and Agricultural Investing

* Special Situations Now for Aggressive Growth

Book your room at the Hotel Special Rate click here

Join Merri and me along with experts from ENR Asset Management, Jyske Bank and  London Investment Bank Smith & Williamson  for the leaf change and a multi currency investing seminar in Montreal.

One day of the seminar contains an Ecuador Update – real estate and residency rules with data provided by our Ecuador attorney, Floridalva Zambrano.  The Ecuador updates include:

* A review of Merri’s and my 20 years in Ecuador.  What changes have taken place.

* Ecuador real estate review: Cotacachi and Imbabura Province, Vilcabamba, Quito, Cuenca, Vilcabamba and the Coast.

* Ecuador’s medical system. Doctors and dentists. Hospitals and prescriptions.

* How to have an Ecuador export business.

* How to attain three types of Ecuador residence visas, investment, retirement and business.

* Moving to Ecuador, all you need to know about bringing your belongings to the country.

* Rules on bringing pets in Ecuador.  How we always brought dog with us, back and forth.

* Costs of living, tips and hints about living in the country.  What to buy abroad and what bargains do you get in Ecuador.

Flying to Ecuador.  Were to stop and stay.  The best deals.  Internal travel, buses planes and cars.  Risks and rewards.

* Ecuador taxes. How to avoid paying Ecuador tax on worldwide income.  How to avoid paying the 5% Ecuador exit tax.  Rules on hiring domestic staff.

* Ecuador banks and financial rules.  How and where to bank.  How much to bring to Ecuador. How to live off credit cards and the ATM and why.  Benefits of cash.

* Galapagos travel. On land or on board.  How to save thousands.

* How to enjoy luxury in Ecuador.

Join Merri and me at our Super Thinking + Multi Currency Investing Seminar  Enroll here $799.   Couple $999

 

Read the 2011 real estate rental article in our archives here

Read the entire September 14 ATK Message in our archives here.

Read the entire Dec 12, 2012 yen message in our archives

 


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