Investing Alternatives With Value


Live where you love but invest where it is best for you.  The two places are not always the same so always take a more global view.  Look for investing alternatives with value everywhere.

One of the huge tensions that creates so much stress today is that political evolution has not kept pace with commercial gains.  Many people still think of themselves as a member of one tribe or another. “I am American or I am Chinese or I am Iranian,”   They separate themselves emotionally from other human beings in this guise… yet marry them in the market place.  This is one reason why the political drama has become so.  Prime Ministers, presidents, parliamentarians, politicians and candidates of all sorts spend all their time bashing opponents instead of outlining some semblance of a a policy or plan that will guide their nations.

This is because events of all national leaders is beyond their control.   This has always been the case… leaders cannot control all those within their jurisdiction. They have even less influence with those outside their borders.  Due to technology and the logic of global economics… those living outside another nation’s borders have far more impact than ever before.

Winston Churchill acknowledged this thought when he said, “If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country. And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire.”

Pandora has well and truly opened that box so there we have it… a global economy running a tribal political world.

We cannot change this fact, but we can adapt. We can use the technology to live where we love but invest and earn where it is best for us.

For example, a reader wrote:  Hello Gary…I am coming to Ecuador soon, hopefully with my husband.  I wonder if you can give me a recommendation for a bank or banks in Ecuador to use.  Have you been wiring funds back and forth and can you give any pointer on how best to do that? What to watch out for?

Our advice is to not put more than you need in an Ecuador bank.

I replied:  We used Banco Pichincha but mainly just live off ATM from a US account and or wire in larger amounts to buy real estate only as it is needed.

Funds over $2,000 coming out of Ecuador are now taxed at 5%. Put in $2,000 and you can only take back $1,900. That’s not a good deal.

If you deposit large amounts ($50,000 or more) be sure to clear in advance with the receiving Ecuador bank so they are satisfied that these funds come from a legitimate source.  I had a couple hundred thousand frozen and almost lost a real estate deal because a bank froze funds even though my Danish bankers emailed the fact that the funds were from our pension account.  The Ecuador bank did not accept that explanation.  Only a threatened law suit by our attorney released the funds.   Regards,

Why invest in Ecuador when global stock markets make great sense now?  There are several reasons why this may be a time to start a huge run of profits.

One reason is that statistically…. equity markets are now selling at a good value.  Michale Keppler wrote in his latest quarterly equity value analysis:

Keppler analysis

(Click on photo enlarge).

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the equally weighted World Index now stands at 15.1 %, down from 17.0 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate of 14,084 by September 30, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 20.4 %, while the lower-band value of 9,390 corresponds to an estimated compound total return of 8.8 % p.a.

Last quarter, I laid out the reasons for our optimistic outlook in detail based on the development of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values, which had grown by 8.3, 8.1, 8.8 and 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually from the turn of the century through June 30, 2012.

I also pointed out that the trend of shrinking multiples in connection with negative real interest rates for many bonds should have exhausted itself and will very likely run out of steam over the coming years. A turnaround in the valuation levels may come sooner rather than later. There is a good chance that it is happening already.

For the forecasts to be accurate we assume that each of the 18 markets included in our equally weighted World Index – these are those developed markets which have been a constituent of the MSCI World Index since its inception in December 1969 – will reach its respective expected value over the coming three to five years.

This assumption has proved to be accurate on average over long periods in the past. Like all value concepts, the warnings tend to come early as do the signs of optimism in times of severe undervaluation – like those we experience currently.

Interestingly, the former Fed Governor Alan Greenspan first warned of “Irrational Exuberance” on December 5, 1996, when the upper valuation band in our chart was first breached on the upside – even though the global bull market in equities continued another three years before the bubble burst. When Warren Buffett mentioned that stocks should “produce long-term returns far superior to bonds” in his famous article “You Pay a Very High Price in the Stock Market for a Cheery Consensus” in the Forbes issue of August 6, 1979, it took exactly three years to August 13, 1982 for one of the biggest global bull markets in stock market history to get started.

We prefer being early to being sorry.  Michael Keppler

Keppler’s analysis and thinking are in line with our study of long term equity market waves.

A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial we reviewed at our last Super Thinking + Investing & Business seminar looked at how after the 16 year 1966 to 1982 bear market ended… despite a recession just ending in the US (and lasting in most of the world till 1985) the Dow started a steady climb for 17 years.

dow-stock-chart

Click to enlarge or go to stockcharts.com

This time from 1982 to 1990 was the darkest hour… when the herd was thinking negatively but the reality was that a boom was on!   I recall how the book “Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It” by Harry E. Figgie, Jr., with Gerald J. Swanson became a New York Times best seller in the early 1990s.  Most investors had still not caught on to the fact that fortunes were being made (as the chart above shows).

Then in 1999 another bear market began and history suggests that the end of this bear is near.

We can be like the smart investors who began investing in 1982 while everyone else cried in their beer or not.

I have been increasing my equity portfolio for almost a year now and plan to continue doing so.

By all means live in and enjoy Ecuador…. just do not do all your banking and investing there!

We leave most of our funds with our investment manager Jyske Global Asset Manager (JGAM) in Denmark and when we need liquidity wire it from there.

You can learn more from JGAM Senior VP Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

The sun always shines somewhere and provides many places we might love to live.  There is also always opportunity somewhere.  Modern technology allows us the ability to live where we love but protect our savings, investments and pensions in places where profits are most likely.

Gary

Update what’s happening with investments globally and see where to invest next at our February 1-2-3, 2013

Silver Trends Down

Silver is falling. 

slv

Chart from finance.yahoo.com/chart/SLV?

Recently the silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV)  was priced 18.62% below the highest close of $19.60 from last August.   The mathematical system we track created a stop loss price of $16.18, showing that this precious metal moved into selling territory.  Now the share price is in the $15 per ounce range.

Gold has been in a buy position since April 2017 but both platinum and silver have stopped out and are in sell positions.  Let me explain why mathematics shows why we won’t be buying gold and are watching silver and platinum, plus are especially interested in Canadian shares.

We Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether one likes to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Mathematical based investing can put us on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, the January 2017 Keppler analysis shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

History shows, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

Using math makes it simple, easy and inexpensive to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

These trending algorithms use the math that spotted the current condition of silver.

Use math to spot distortions that create ideal conditions for speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Our math based study has created an ideal price for gold and though its trending up it has passed the good value level we use.  Gold is still okay, but not a bargain any more.  Value investors only seek bargains.

More importantly we use the price of gold and its relation to the price of silver and platinum to spot ideal times for speculation.

In 2015, Pi recommended speculating in silver because of a dip in the price of silver.   We sent Pi subscribers a report entitled Silver Dip 2015.   That tactic returned 62.48% profit in just nine months.

In 2017, Platinum speculation is even better.

“Silver Dip 2017” has been written and is available to Pi subscribers to show how to determine good value in precious metals and ways to use gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals to spice up returns in safe, diversified stock portfolios.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip Report of 1986” was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar/pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Platinum conditions are ideal

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value.

The “Silver Dip 2017” explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2017” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we eliminated the cost of paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

You also receive FREE

  • The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”
  • The $49 report “How to Grab Sequential Value Profits”.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days, and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 


Related Artices

If you enjoyed this article "Investing Alternatives With Value" you may find these related articles of interest too: