30 Year Cycle


We are almost at the end of the 15 year bear in the 30 year equity cycle.

stockchart.com dow chart

This chart from stockcharts.com shows the Dow from 1980 to 2000.  This is what happened at the end of the last 15 year bear cycle.

A main feature at this site (and our printed newsletter decades before) has been the importance of 30 year cycles (15 year bull and 15 year bear) in the stock market and how to use Borrow Low-Deposit High leverage.

We have not shared much on leverage since 2008 because we are ultra conservative and because our analysis of the 30 year cycle cycle suggests that the next stock upswing will not pick up until 2014 to 2015.

However, now is the time to prepare for this next huge jump… so just this last week we began reviewing the idea of becoming more speculative in equities. We also opened up once again the idea of adding leverage.

I was pleased to see that Tom Ruggie of Ruggie Wealth management has also recognized the turning point in this important three decade economic wave.

Ruggie wrote in his weekly commentary this week: SOMETHING BEGAN IN THE STOCK MARKET 30 YEARS AGO that still has people shaking their heads today. Back on August 12, 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its 1980-82 recession low of 776.92, according to The Wall Street Journal. Around the country, it was just an ordinary day in an otherwise economically challenged economy. But, on Wall Street, it was the beginning of something extraordinary.
 
Depending on your age, you may remember that back in 1982, the prime lending rate peaked at 17 percent, the unemployment rate was near 11 percent, and inflation was on the way down from the double-digit rates of 1979-1980, according to The Wall Street Journal and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Demographically, the oldest Baby Boomers were a youthful 36 and just getting ready to unleash their penchant for big spending. Ronald Reagan was President, Paul Volcker was head of the Federal Reserve, and, while an unlikely pair, they were about to make history together.
 
Reflecting back on the summer of 1982 in a 2009 Wall Street Journal piece, Jason DesenaTrennert wrote, “Starting as a trickle, the decline in inflation and long-term interest rates picked up speed that summer, and investors in common stocks began to have confidence that they were being liberated from the shackles of double-digit inflation and interest rates, an innovation-sapping regulatory regime, and a tax code that was antithetical to capital formation.”
 
Awakening from its slumber the day after August 12, 1982, the stock market took off on an unprecedented 18-year bull market run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise a spectacular 1,500 percent, according to Bloomberg.
 
So, here we are, 30 years removed from the start of that great bull market and what do we have to show for it? Well, since that great bull market ended in early 2000, we’ve experienced two harrowing bear markets that saw the broad market decline around 50 percent. And, today, we’re still below the all-time high of late 2007.
 
Yet, here’s what is extraordinary. Despite the weak markets we’ve experienced since 2000, if you go back to August 1982 and look at the returns for the past 30 years, the market has done extremely well. According to The Wall Street Journal, the total return of the S&P 500 index was a compound 11.3 percent between August 1982 and now. That’s even better than the average return for the entire 20th century, which was 10.1 percent, according to the Journal.
 
It’s easy to get too caught up in what’s happening today in the markets and lose sight of the big picture. Instead, it’s better to take the long view. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the past 30 years have shown that patience may be rewarded.

I concur…investors should take the long term view and all the advisers I follow… JGAM… Keppler Asset Management… Ruggie Wealth Management and my London brokers have positive comments about how inexpensive equities are now.

Hence the recent message at this site Great Global Investing Adventure which showed how my portfolio rose 72.4% and could have risen 239% with fully hedged leverage.

The next message last week was about Brookfield Power which has returned 32% PA since I invested and could have 107% PA with a non hedged leverage.

Of all the European sectors the financial sector is one of hardest hit. This means that this is a good place to look for extra value.  A look at the chart of iShares MSCI Europe Financials Index (EUFN) traded Nasdaqshows how volatile this sector has been… how hard hit it was earlier this year and how it is now in an upwards trend.

ishares Euro financial etf

Click on photo to enlarge graph

Learn more about ETFs from Morgan Hatfield at Ruggie Wealth.  mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com

Upcoming messages look in more detail at European Financials and their explosive potential.

The time of greatest darkness is just before the light begins to show at the end of the tunnel.  The 30 year stock market cycle suggests we are in that dark spot…. so now is time to begin to prepare for the light… to grab opportunity before the masses and to look once again at leverage in the portfolio.

Gary

Enjoy Extended Wealth

Here is how our savings, investments & income can last a lifetime.   Life expectancy can be longer than statistics suggest.   That’s good news, but Social Security is expected to have a purchasing power shortfall over upcoming years.  Pensions are also at risk almost everywhere.  Plus more and more banks and brokers have been exposed.  The institutions that claim to be protecting our hard earned saving and investments  are actually more interested in ripping off customers for quick gains then helping them secure their  future.

Despite these pitfalls, their is a way to extend our money as well as a longer, active life.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed good value strategies that increase wealth again and again.  This type of strategy is based on three tactics.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers can take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.

The speculation is so time sensitive with such fast profit (but also loss) potential that I will only offer it for a short period of time

“The Silver Dip 2105”  sells for $27, but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2015” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save $158.95

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $27 report “The Silver Dip 2015” free for a total savings of $158.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2015” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2105” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

Stockcharts.com


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