There are many reasons to buy a ticket to Ecuador… one is its miles of sunny empty beaches.
When I took my first flight to Hong Kong 41 years ago, I was 21 years old and flew on a cheap ticket that was called a student fare.
While in Hong Kong I met a travel agent. Charlie Kwok was his name and he had an office in the Miramar Hotel, Kowloon, not far from the Star Ferry. Charlie was the master of the low cost air fare and over the next half decade he amazed me with some of his great deals…. Especially for people under age 27.
Next decade in London, John Dragonas, a Greek travel agent continued showing the way to get deals. Back then they had VUSA (Visit USA) where prices were really low.
By then Merri and I had met and she became the maven of amazing air fare deals.
In short I have always enjoy incredibly low costs air fares. However Merri added another dimension because not all low cost air fares are great.
I recall one flight Honk Kong to Portland, Oregon that Charlie Kwok arranged… really cheap, because it was a charter with two empty seats and otherwise full of doctors returning from Thailand. What Charlie forgot to mention was that the actual fare went Hong Kong, Seattle, Minneapolis, San Francisco and then I had a connection back to Portland… adding about 24 hours to the flight!
There are many reasons to buy a ticket to Ecuador… such as the high Andean lakes.
John in London ignored the human part of travel to get the cost down once as well… a special VUSA fare. Merri and I wanted to fly London, Miami, Chicago, Portland, London.
To get the lowest fare, the actual flight turned out to be London -Denver, Miami- Denver, Chicago-Denver, Portland-Denver, London…or something like that… low fare but not a great deal.
There are many reasons to buy a ticket to Ecuador… including wonderful colonial architecture.
It was about then that Merri took over finding our fares and she is good… Let me be humble and say she may be the best. Recently our son visited us from London-Charlotte-London for $17. That is correct, seventeen dollars.
There are many reasons to buy a ticket to Ecuador… big cities and…
quaint villages like… Cotacachi shown here.
Many readers asked for help on how to get this fare that I asked Merri to prepare an article on how she does it.
Here it is:
Buying Air Tickets: Merri Scott
Gary often asks me to write about how I buy airline tickets and especially those to Ecuador…so this is the first in a series of hints including safety, price, ease…
Well, first of all…it’s a tricky business for sure. And to top it all off, it rarely is quick and easy. I start out with that in mind and sometimes days later I’m still at it! But there is a pattern that I always use that helps me sort from the beginning the good, bad and the ugly.
Malcolm Gladwell’s newest book, “The Outliers, The Story of Success” clearly states that most people are really good at something, really successful after about 10,000 hours. Well, for sure I have my 10,000 hours in on travel and tickets. For over 4 years, Gary and I crossed the Atlantic commuting from our home in London to our home in Naples, Fl every three weeks. It was always different, always a surprise and very often extremely challenging to buy tickets for Gary’s mom, our 5 children to all our destinations all over the world ON A REGULAR BASIS. We had homes in London, Gloustershire, Naples, North Carolina, the north coast of the Dominican Republic and…oh, it makes my head spin just thinking about it!
Needless to say, just by the sheer act of plotting, planning and finally buying, I’ve learned a lot…earned my 10,000 hours over the last 25 + years of international traveling.
However, all the rules have now changed…it’s often hard to know which way to jump…some people book for instance a conference and tell me to confirm quickly so they can buy “that cheap ticket” that is 6 months out! Whoa, I reply…that’s pretty risky…sometimes you can now buy a ticket at a week out for the same price or better than a month out.
Airlines are constantly shifting and changing and hedging their bets…so let’s look at a few things that we can count on.
#1. The internet makes it a lot easier than we’ve had it before. There is plenty of data and solid information that we can gather from 100s of sources instantly.
#2. The internet also makes it a lot harder than we’ve ever had it before BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY CHOICES! We have more information so it is essential that we use this information wisely.
Here are a few ground rules that I am currently using that are working now.
1. Don’t buy months out.
2. Sit down with those who are traveling and have a general chat on days/possibilities/flexibilities that might be possible. Right now, for instance, I am buying for Ecuador. Gary and I will get a month’s calendar, list our IDEAL flight days and then see which ways we COULD be flexible.
3. For the past year, it is cheaper (yes, cheaper) in most cases to fly from an outlying airport than direct. I know a lot of people for instance who drive from let’s say Birmingham, Ala to Atlanta and then fly direct from Atlanta to everywhere. Don’t do this. CHECK YOUR POSSIBILITIES.
For example, Gary and I fly mainly from NC to Portland, NC to Quito, NC to London and NC to Copenhagen. Well, we can fly from Charlotte, Greensboro (Triad) or from a nearby TRI Cities TN tiny airport. I check out each of these easily and quickly to get a handle on the whole picture. I don’t just assume that one is cheaper or more expensive, etc.
For instance for years, Charlotte has been very expensive to fly into our area than all the others, and suddenly last fall, it all shifted…now it’s the cheapest. Well, it could be the aggressiveness of USAir after its near collapse that has caused them to price the lowest since it is their hub and therefore Delta, etc. have followed suit.
When flying from Florida, I look at Tampa (our favorite), Orlando, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, etc. Takes only a second and sometimes you can really find an el cheapo winner!
4. Decide whether you are a frequent flyer who needs to accumulate miles or if you are just an occasional flyer. We for instance are frequent flyers and use Atlanta as our hub to go to our common destinations…Portland, London, Quito, Copenhagen are our patterns. Sometimes we fly from NC and sometimes from FL (according to the season)…but ALL of these flights are non-stop from Atlanta via Delta. So, instead of looking at all airlines/all flights, I really just watch Delta. We accumulate a lot of miles, use them for free tickets for our children and/or for upgrades. My advice for frequent flyers is pick an airline and stick with it! This gets the most bang for your buck…although sometimes I pay more for this, in the long run it works out well and suits us and lets us fly first class.
If you are lucky enough to be an infrequent flyer, then just look for the best deal!
5. Frequent flyers can gain a lot from loyalty…although not everything as recently we found out on an emergency trip to Portland! But usually, we can get what WE determine is important. (not that this might be your choice in the line of fire.)
What is important to us is not just the price but the Duration of the Flight…very, very important you might say! I’ll pay a bit more to fly a total of 7 hours instead of a lot less to fly the same route with a totally of 11 hours or maybe 23 hours!
Another thing that is important to us is that we can upgrade. We have logged so many miles and usually have to get off an airplane and go straight to work that over the years we have decided that if we can go first or business class (more or that later) we should. We feel better if we are not cramped in and let’s face it (although we don’t drink alcohol and don’t eat on planes) there are some good perks. Very important to us is that there is simply more oxygen up front than there is in the back…so we arrive in better shape than if we were tucked in on the last row.
Other things important to us is that we have a place where we can be quiet and not listen to a dozen cell phone conversations and 7 different TV stations. We aren’t used to this type of confusion and noise and so we want to have the use of special rooms that airlines provide (Delta’s Crown Rooms) that allow quiet areas. Often we traveled with our service dog, and she too is allowed in these rooms. We just rest and wait there. IT DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Merri even makes sure that we have seats so we see the sunset at night and sunrise in the morning.
But on the other hand, we don’t want to pay for this privilege which can cost big change.
How do we achieve this? Well, each airline has its own gimmicks, but Delta allows a cardholder of AMEX Sky Miles Reserve (which can cost anywhere from $295 up) to have free access with his/her companions to all Sky Mile Crown rooms at no cost. You can now have a simple Gold AMEX Sky Miles card (sometimes without a fee) that allows more or less the same privileges. We find excellent light food (that is fresh) and peace and quiet there. We also find their quiet desk of agents that will do just about anything to make life pleasant (changing flights/redoing tickets/finding lost luggage, etc.). They will even wake you if you fall asleep in your comfy chair. That same card allows us to have a free Concierge booking service (that means they will REALLY try everything to help you) as well as double miles for most of our travel…and (and this is a big one) the right to Pay with Miles.
And what is Pay with Miles? Well, let’s discuss that under Award Ticketing later in this series.
1. OK, now that we know whether we are a loyal frequent flyer or if we are a just looking for a great deal…then let’s look at an easy system.
I’ve used a lot of systems over the years and am hooked on www.kayak.com. It is simple, easy and fast. It gives you the whole picture of flights for an entire month (in case you are flexible) AND all the patterns that there are to choose WITH (and this is all important to us) the Duration of the Flight. This is instant and easy to read. Often it lists flights that the airline itself isn’t listing and also it gives you the total WITH TAXES INCLUDED.
Gosh, do I hate it when I have a great flight, great schedule and then find out that whoa…here comes the taxes. Kayak is consistent!
So, I pull up their website and I use it in the following ways. First, of all I advise you to sign in…(even though you’re probably like me and don’t want to take this step because of what it might lead to…)
Signing in allows you to look at a calendar of the month and see how much that ticket is each day…that is instantly. You can get a lot of information to compare fast and easy.
They show deals from 100+ airlines in seconds.
There are a lot of other systems but kayak for me does it all…it shows me prices from the airline from Hotwire, Expedia, Priceline, Travelocity, etc.
I sign in and then fill out the form…airports are easy…if you don’t know the call signs of your airport, just type in part of the name & the list pops up. Check “Include other airports” just to see what might happen. Click on “Flexible Departure” if this is the case…sometimes a fare can vary hundreds of dollars from just a day’s difference!
In this case, the fare varied $90 per person from day to day. Well, then I hit in the top left hand corner “Modify or Start Search Over” and clicked on Charlotte to Quito…wow, a savings of $295 per person! Same schedule, same #of hours…but this was with AA…which we don’t accumulate miles, etc.
Then I clicked on “Modify or Start Search Over” and clicked on “Include Nearby Airports”…and guess what? I found a price of $302 less per person on DELTA! And this was from Raleigh Durham…now just ask yourself, how can a flight be $300 cheaper from a further distance on the SAME airline…well, of course it is a mini airfare war…RDU (Raleigh Durham, NC is AA’s hub!).
Now, if I were to say to Gary…”hey, how’d you like to save an extra $600 to go to Ecuador next month?”….he’d reply “is it on Delta?”…I’d say yes, then he’d say “is it from Tri Cities?” And I’d say “No”…and he’d say, “buy the higher priced ticket from Tri Cities”.
Why? Well, we are sort of tired out road warriors. We can go (except in the winter when the pass is closed) over the top of Mt. Rogers and drop down to tiny tiny Tri Cities and find ourselves able to double park (yep!) and walk our bags and weary bodies in. (Last month, the lone policemen there even helped us!) Everyone there knows us. They jump to help us…and we can sanely walk through security even with our dog with everyone helping us…and then walk down to the one of only 4 gates and sit in the sun. We can board, take a 25 minute flight to Atlanta and walk (we always walk through all the airports not ride when possible) to the Crown Room…or go directly to Gate E for the International flight.
Well, this is where you have to choose…what do you want? We want peace and quiet and a very easy entrance to the world and also a very very cheap daily rate at the airport for our car. We like quiet, non events as opposed to people shouting at us to hurry and clear security, etc.
We’ve left our car, checked in at a gate with 4 people manning the desks and maybe two other passengers there, cleared security and are at the gate in less than 15 minutes or maybe 10…with no stress.
All top importance to us, but maybe not to you…this is why I mention to pick the airport where you begin for its appeal to you…that’s why we are loyal to Tri Cities and Tampa (in the winter).
OK…so all it takes is a few minutes to click on Kayak figure out ALL your possibilities and all your data.
My advice is to once again choose what is important to you…and that is whether you value money or time. I scroll down a number of times and watch these rates for a few days or weeks (if I have the time) and pick THE BEST RATE FOR US WITH THE LOWEST DURATION OF HOURS. These are equally important to us. Kayak lets you click on “Details” for the stops in between and other information and then once you decide which flight pattern (sometimes they offer 5 or 6 pages of these all in price order) then click on that. Kayak then sends you directly to the listing agent. You don’t have to figure out a single thing but the flight you like.
If you are trying to stick with just one airline, then click on the list at your left and it will eliminate the others.
We don’t usually like to fly to one country through stops in other countries and that prevents us from using Taca, Lacsa and Copa…who stop and change flights in Panama and Costa Rica. We find this heightens the chance of lost luggage and further wears us out.
We do like LAN Ecuador, which we have flown from Miami many, many times. A great airline (parent is LAN Chile with a very good safety record) with courteous, gentle service (Ecuadorian!) and a non hassle check in! That’s a winning combination for sure! This helps.
We now have a choice of Aero Galapagos, which is a regional Ecuadorian Airline that is flying from Miami to Ecuador. We respect its young female CEO and our only complaint for this is that it is non stop to Guayaquil with an overnight then go up to Quito. However, she has applied for rights to fly non stop Miami/Manta! That should be a winner for sure. So, let’s watch out for this application to be approved…but of course immigration and customs must be added to the excellent Manta Airport first.
Right now, there are 19 pages of 15 schedules each (that’s 285 flights!) from Miami to Quito. This could be bewildering. Let Kayak (or your favorite search site) do your work by sorting them out and presenting them in just seconds to you!
One other Kayak feature is that you get to choose the currency of your country for the prices. This is absolutely a fantastic feature of this website, truly international and very cognizant of the global marketplace that the web represents.
The tips above can be used to get great airplane ticket deals anywhere.
Some suggestions for Ecuador. I find a lot of people need help on this somewhat exotic country…because there isn’t a lot of information out there. Gary and I have lived/worked in Ecuador for 15 years, so we’ve learned a lot the hard way…that is so you won’t have to!
Here are my list of dos and don’ts:
1.Fly into Quito not Guayaquil (even if the flight is cheaper). Guayaquil is a big, bustling, expensive city full of a lot of things you don’t need to put up with and not much of interest to tourists as well as those who want to look for a place to live. Quito is orderly and functional and the airport really organized. We have good friends in Guayaquil and over the years have spent a lot of time there, but that doesn’t mean that we like it. It also costs a lot of time and money to get up to Quito (over $100 round trip, so that usually wipes out any savings) and since most flights arrive in the evening…you’ll have to overnight in expensive Guayaquil.
The surf at San Clemente is safe enough for kids to play in.
2.Don’t fly on a Colombian Airline (Avianca and others), even if it is great deal cheaper.
For instance, right now Avianca is flying from Miami to Quito for a cheaper fare than Delta is listing. (round trip). I’ve been waiting for all of you to arrive in Quito for over 14 years and those which fly from Bogota, Colombia often don’t land in Quito, they go onto Guayaquil and overnight there…or more usual, they just stop in Bogota (unscheduled of course) and then continue in the next day to Quito.
Why do people fly with them? Often they are the cheapest…but cheap is nothing compared to an American passport holder overnighting in Bogota and not really understanding when the next plane goes out, plus missing your ride in Quito, etc. I always say to people this is the prime example of false economy….the decision comes in Bogota whether the plane continues on are not…it is simply a load situation…and we don’t want to get caught out another night in a strange hotel…when it clearly said…arrival in Quito!
Weather can be misty with a socked in airport and Quito can be a tricky airport to land into. (This will be remedied when the new airport is finished. It is built on top of a plateau instead of in the valley of Quito.) All Delta pilots who fly in there are licensed to land in any weather (but sometimes choose not to land and go to Guayaquil…but rarely.) Colombian pilots are rarely licensed to land on instruments, so the plane just stays in Colombia and comes the next day…not ever a good thing for a traveler! I’ve waited hours in the Quito Airport with our greeting crew for years looking for those people who don’t arrive until the next day!
3. Bring your own favorite non heavy snacks and just drink lots of water, skip the airline fare and the drinks…you’ll feel better and the next day not have any recovery time.
4. We never book “Multiple Airlines” tickets. This can be a combination of all sorts of airlines and can be a reason if anything goes wrong (like lost luggage) that no one claims responsibility. We don’t like to mix airlines.
5. If you think that Quito might be too high in altitude for you, then just hire a driver to meet your plane, bring you water and fruit and a pillow and blanket and bring you on out to your destination! That’s what we do!
Ecuador is a charming, beautiful country…buy your tickets with care and enjoy the ride!
Now let’s discuss Award Tickets vs Pay with Miles and other variations that we use tomorrow.
Award Tickets vs. Pay with Miles
I used to think that the highest thing out there in the “ticket” world was a free ticket! But look at the cost is of a “free” ticket with Delta!
Our daughter was here for 3 weeks from London before she returned for a year in Africa, and this was a more or less “instant” decision for her. Many fares from London were high…and I thought “Oh, let’s go for an award ticket”…
But just to show you how all the rules have now changed, I thought well, let’s make some comparisons…
Here’s what I found…Award Ticket round trip from London to Charlotte:
Mileage required 50,000 and up to 70,000.
Award available on most days, plenty of seats, etc.
Sounds good…right? A free ticket! Great for kids as there is no tax advantage and it’s there and red hot!
However, let’s look closer, the requirement for taxes was $316.23!! Other flights, taxes were $375.10. Wow!
Well, that’s not really a free ticket is it?
So…then let’s look at Pay with Miles (explanation later in this article):
Same flights, same days…ticket would be $94.43 and 50,000 miles…a big big difference…this includes all taxes and fees. I could have made it even lower to $40.43 if Gary had an extra 5,000 miles in his account.
Well, what would you rather have? A “free” awards ticket for 50,000 miles + $316-$375 in taxes or a Pay with Miles for 50,000 miles for $94.43 or even as low as $40.43?
Ecuador tickets will brings you rustic restaurants open air restaurants like this three table authentic pizza parlor complete with dog, cat and dirt floor.
But great pizza
Pay with Miles
How does Pay for Miles Tickets work? Well, there is a small catch that I discovered after recommending this to a client…she called me back and said “Pay with Miles does not appear on my computer”…
Here is that catch. It says very clearly that this is for Platinum and Gold Medallion Members. And of course, only people crazy enough to travel as much as we do qualify…but and this is a big BUT it is available to anyone with a Delta Skymiles number if that person holds an American Express Sky Miles GOLD Card, Platinum or Reserve Credit Card. I have provided links to learn more about how to get these cards at the end of this message.
The first year, the fee is waived and then can be as low as $55 annually…you’ll save that on your first purchase of “Pay with Miles”.
All of this is a bit lopsided…but as I said before “All the Rules have Changed”…and that means ALL the rules. When you order this credit card you’ll get a bonus 25,000 miles to start.
Gary and I (as you probably know) abhor debt, so we pay off our credit cards each month but we do love credit cards…because we can easily track our purchases for tax purposes and also because of the Pay with Miles feature. It is possible to have free (that is really free) Delta Crown Room use at all airports by showing your American Express Delta Reserve Card. This Amex card is a bit pricier but has more benefits because your miles are at times doubled and you have access to a Concierge desk when you really get into trouble (which I often do) and also don’t forget all those quiet times in the private rooms.
You don’t really need to be a road warrior who has hundreds of thousands of miles, you just need that little American Express Gold or Platinum card! Suddenly those magic words, “Pay with Miles” automatically appear on your screen, giving you a free ticket with no blackout dates, the use of any amount of miles you might have (award tickets have a premium minimum), as well as flexibility, AND no fees. This can be purchased for a group of people (if on the same itinerary) and can be used as often as you have miles in your account.
Pay with Miles is a great way to use those accumulated miles that is fast, easy, Internet friendly and instant. I just love bringing our kids from all over the world as we did Jake (on the itinerary and dates he chose) last year for $17!
Ecuador tickets can lead you to fancy restaurants in Bahia like at the Bahia yacht…
simple affairs like this Bahia Cafe on the
or at La Piedra Hotel in Bahia…
where standards are high and…
outstanding and food is very reasonable.
Good flights and happy endings….Merri
Join an upcoming Ecuador or Super Spanish course or tour.
2015 ScheduleSchedule 2015 Seminars and Courses
We conduct our Investment seminar at Jefferson Landing in Jefferson North Carolina.
Join Merri and me for all the courses and seminars that we’ll conduct to help you gain positive solutions to your economic, financial and lifestyle concerns.
Here is the courses we currently have scheduled in 2015.
Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.One (of eleven) sessions at our October 17-18, 2015 Value Investment Seminar is about silver and gold and how conditions that created fortunes in 1986 are much the same now.
Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less. If someone offers you this, I would normally say “Run from them as fast as you can!”
Yet in 1986. This is exactly what I wrote in a report that told how to borrow to buy silver.
I have to admit. I was wrong. Readers who followed the report made more than that amount in less than four years.
Here is a photo of that ad in 1986.
Conditions for silver’s recovery are similar to 1986 now.
The offer in 1986 was for a report called the Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.
This chart from Kitco (1) tells the story.
Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce. As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986. Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986. Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.
Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $12,000 was now worth $42,185.
The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound. So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver. The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver. The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating a $5,314 profit. So the profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.
British 12,000 pounds gets US$22,800. Then the pound crashed again to $1.50 and could be paid off at $15,700 for another $7,660 profit or a total profit of $55,099 in only three years. Of course there was interest on the 12,000 pound loan, but this was less than 10% or $3,600 for the three years. In other words, there was $51,599 profit in three years. That’s remarkably close to the promise.
Yet there is a really big question. Would we have made this profit, had we taken the loan and invested in the silver?
There was plenty of potential for loss as well as profit. After rising from $4.85 to $11 per ounce, the silver price crashed again, clear back to below $5.00 an ounce and the investment was again worth about $12,000. The British pound fluctuated dramatically against the US dollar so there was plenty of room for loss as well as profit in the currency shifts.
Silver & gold charts from stockcharts.com
This historical chart of silver shows why conditions may be set for a spike in the price of silver. Note in the chart above that the huge profit in 1986 came from the second spike in a head and shoulders pattern. The bubble peaked in the late 1970s, but traders and commodity conditions sucked speculators back in for what is called a “Dead Cat Bounce”. This type of price recovery comes for no reason other than the price has fallen so much.
The dead cat bounce created huge and quick profits in 1986. We have the same scenario for silver prices now.
The price of silver reached a speculation driven historic high (over $50 an ounce) about four years ago and has since plummeted to prices that are almost back to 1987 levels.
If history repeats itself, expect silver prices to rise sharply in the next one to three years. Then there is a great risk that the price will crash again. Investors can again expect to double, triple, even quadruple their speculation in as little as a year.
But then investors must take that profit! The profits in silver will be quick and history suggests that these profits will not last long.
This is why the “Silver Dip 2015” will be one of the seven portfolios, the most speculative, we will study at our October 17-18 Investment Seminar in Jefferson, North Carolina..
This is also why I am releasing a new “Silver Dip 2015” report.
This report is exclusively available to subscribers of our Purposeful Investment Course and our Value Investing Seminar delegates.
This silver speculation is so time sensitive with such fast profit (but also loss) potential that I will not offer it to readers who have not received the education in Pi or at the seminar. We will cover when and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
The same conditions are in place for gold and the Silver Dip looks at both speculations in silver and gold.
There is also another, much safer, once every 30 year opportunity that I have described in a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small good value investments. The mathematics behind the idea of this investment strategy are currently extraordinary. Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi- currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential than we have seen in over three decades.
Our Investing Seminars started 32 years ago when one of the best set of three currency and equity conditions ever existed. Over these decades, our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do. Yet in all those years, few times have conditions offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982. The Dow alone rose from 1,000 to 14,000 in that period.
Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!
Now three of the great economic conditions have returned.
Conditions have come together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s. The US dollar, the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s. Knowing these conditions and why they have merged and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.
Learn how to gain this potential (we’ll review three ways to accomplish this at the seminar) in the Keppler Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds). For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom. You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.
We review Country Index ETFs at the seminar and look at specific portfolios you can create to tap into these three economic conditions.
We’ll review seven portfolios at the seminar, starting with a Primary Portfolio which consists of equal amounts of country ETFs in each of Keppler’s good value ranked markets, with a weighting of 70% in developed markets and 30% in emerging markets. This is, an easy to start, very slow trading, safe and secure, worry and stress free portfolio that still has excellent profit potential.
The second and third and fourth portfolios are the Primary Portfolio with trailing stops. One portfolio uses a 25% trailing stop, one 20% trailing stop and one uses the smart stop system created by Dr. Richard Smith. This system uses algorithms that provide alerts when to sell and when to reenter shares.
The fifth is a derivative of the Primary Portfolio that replaces ETFs with and or includes income producing equities.
The sixth is a Disaster Portfolio to protect wealth if events around the world become really unglued. The seventh portfolio is the higher risk, leveraged portfolio that includes some speculation in currencies and commodities.
The goal of this study is not to recommend any one portfolio or approach but to help subscribers to understand the characteristics of each so they can better determine how to invest themselves based on their financial means, needs, experience and skills.
Gain the importance of experience & mathematics. Invest better than a hedge fund manager.
As a run up to my 50th year of speaking and writing about savings and investments around the world I decided to ask my friends who are mathematical and legal geniuses to share a weekend with us to cut through the fog of rapid change and learn how to beat the systems that can seem so bewildering.
Hedge Funds were the fashionable place to invest in the 1990s, but since then their performance has been falling.
However some hedge fund managers succeeded for one simple reason. A Telegraph article “How can we avoid the next financial crisis? Urgently listen to those who foresaw this one” explains why a few managers succeeded, when it said: It’s no coincidence that the biggest winners of the downturn – John Paulson, Paolo Pellegrini and Jeffrey Greene – were approaching 50 years of age. They retained vivid memories of past real-estate problems. Youth was a detriment to pulling off the greatest trade ever and to preparing for the downturn.
The successful hedge fund investors succeeded where most failed because of their experience.
I’ll provide the 50 years of experience at the seminar. I have been through the rise of gold to over 800 an ounce (in the 1970s) and silver to $48. I experienced the stock market’s bear that began in 1968, the Black Monday crash in 1987 when the Dow had its biggest one day drop ever and the dotcom bubble as well as the collapse in 2008. I worked my way though the first dollar devaluation in 1971, the Plaza Accord arranged dollar collapse and two major downturns in the Japanese yen, plus invested through the 1970s, 1980s and late 2000 recessions.
We’ll share how these experiences which prepares us for our investments now.
Michael Keppler provides the Math.
The idea of using math to find good value equity investments led me to ask mathematical analyst, Michael Keppler, to join us in the Blue Ridge for the seminar.
Michael is a brilliant mathematician. We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years. He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each stock market’s history. From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.
Red Lining Your Investments
According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of good value markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. His mathematical predictions have been eerily accurate as the red line below shows.
Each quarter Michael shares with me (and other professional investors) his “Total Return Predictions”.
Click on chart to enlarge.
This chart shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, he started in 1993. Keppler continually shows what his mathematical formulas predict for markets four years ahead. These numbers are based on mathematical relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years moving forward in monthly increments. In this way Keppler uses numbers to continually adjust to the ever-changing market norm.
Keppler’s chart includes two remarkable episodes. The first in the period when global equity markets peaked and crashed over a five-year period from 1997 to 2001. Keppler’s Equally-Weighted World Index predictions stayed above the upper forecast band and accurately predicted the recovery and how much global markets would rise.
The second remarkable period started in October 2008, when again Keppler’s forecasts accurately showed where markets would reach as they fell below the lower forecast band.
Imagine the extra profit professional investors have today when they invested in these depressed good value markets before they again rose.
Keppler’s projections now indicate that global markets are expected to rise from between 2.1% and 13.0 % in the next three to five years.
Learn about Keppler’s projections and about Asset Allocation from Michael Keppler in person at our Value Investing Seminar October 17 & 18 in Jefferson, North Carolina.
Our October seminar will be at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.
Enjoy the autumn leaf change and learn how to survive and prosper with value investments.
Jefferson leaf change view.
Learn amazing tax benefits as well. I have invited my tax preparer, Conrad Oertwig, to join us.
Seven of tax secrets that Conrad will share include:
* How Dutch-treat entertainment allows you to deduct your own meals.
* How to entertain for business and help the charity of your choice because a charity sporting event produces double the deduction of a business meal.
* How one magic word can allow you to deduct your daily transportation costs between your home and another work location.
* How to earn an extra $11,425 by using antiques as office equipment.
* How to gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business.
* How to reduce tax by having a second office in the home.
* How to travel by cruise ship and deduct up to $680 a day.
Plucking common sense from the tax law is time consuming and difficult work. For more than 25 years, Conrad has gained great satisfaction by helping his clients extract tax dollars from the tax law. He has over 400 tax savings tips and will share some of the most important lessons at the seminar.
To help you get an early start on tax savings, I will send you Conrad’s report “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business” when you enroll in the seminar. I’ll also send you “The Silver Dip 2015” as soon as it is released.
Join Michael Keppler, Conrad Oertwig, Merri, and me, plus video presentations by Leslie Share, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer and Richard Smith. The “Value Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with value investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create profits by spotting multi currency and global equity cycles through good value mathematics.
Hear from other speakers via video. The seminar will include online presentations including:
One way to protect our wealth and freedom is to have a good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning so you can also be protected rather than hurt by the tax laws.
Leslie Share: How to use and benefit from US tax law living overseas and for wealth preservation.
Leslie has been our friend and adviser of more than 30 years, and I have asked him to speak to the seminar online at the October Value Investing seminar. Leslie is an attorney in Coral Gables, Florida who specializes in general, corporate and international taxation, estate and gift tax planning, internal revenue service matters at the agent and appeals level plus most important, he specializes in wealth preservation.
He has the highest possible Peer Review Rating by Martindale-Hubbell, Florida Super Lawyers and The Best Lawyers in America.
Leslie is the type of attorney who can help gain asset and wealth protection if you live in the US or abroad.
The best way for boomers to protect their wealth is with good value income producing shares. Not everyone can wait for their assets to grow. Many need investments that create income now.
Eric Roseman: How to select good value income producing shares.
I have worked with Eric for decades and use his ability to select good value income producing shares. Understanding the intrinsic value of any equity is an elusive concept, but one of the best ways to assess value is by looking at the income it generates. Eric is a master at sniffing out the shares that provide a good income now as well as potential appreciation later. Learn from his strategic ideas for current market conditions.
Thomas Fischer: The impact of multi currency leverage leverage on portfolios.
Thomas Fischer has been a friend and investment adviser for nearly two decades. As a former currency trader in Germany and London, he has a keen sense of currency fundamentals and how and when to use leverage.
Richard Smith: How to overcome the behavior gap with Trailing Stops.
Dr. Richard Smith, founder and CEO of TradeStops. Richard earned a PhD in Math and Systems Science, and even he had to learn the hard way that it takes more than intelligence to win in the game of investing. He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed! With his background in mathematical theories of uncertainty combined with his own investing and trading experience, Dr. Smith understands risk management and how to use it as a self-directed investor to master the market.
Finally at the seminar I’ll review the 50 Golden Rules of Investing. Learn how to protect against shady investment advice, unreasonable and hidden fees. Learn how to protect yourself from your own emotions. Learn when it is best to buy shares and determine which type of share is best for you. Find out how to avoid the loss fear syndrome and stop getting caught by great sounding stories that can rob your wealth.
Share my 50 years of experience. Gain advice that is sterling as we head towards my golden anniversary of writing about saving, finance and investing. Our value investing seminars are filled with valuable information but we have fun and take time to relax and socialize as well.
We look forward to joining us this October.
Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina.