Common Sense Investments in a Common Thought World


We need common sense investments in this Common Thought World that has been turned upside down by accelerating technology and change.

What 44 years of living, investing and doing business around the globe has taught me though is that common sense is never common thought!

Common Thought is what the thundering herd believes…based on what happened in the past.

Common Sense dictates that the good investments have never been made before.

I have been investing abroad for decades and I have enjoyed capturing seven common sense trends.

#1: 1970s. Gold & Silver.

#2: 1970s. Japan, Germany, Switzerland, England, Australia and Hong Kong .

#3: 1980s. The Tigers:  Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea & Turkey .

#4: 1990s. South America (which led me to Ecuador ).

#5: 2000s. China, India and Eastern Europe .

#6: Invest in Real Estate Throughout.

#7: Bet Against the US Dollar Throughout.

Yet  at the time these investments were spotted they made no sense at all IF… one was thinking Common Thought.

In the 1970s the idea of investing in Hong Kong was crazy. In the 1990s when I suggested investments in Ecuador… many laughed at Merri and me.

They are not laughing now because when the future becomes the past… Common Sense and Common Thought merge.  Common Thought is the common sense of the past.

Common Sense investing requires new thought!

Yet we cannot divorce ourselves totally from common thought because at times the thinking of the masses drives markets and economies rather than basics and fundamentals.

Let’s take betting against the US dollar as an example.  The dollar has fallen and fallen and fallen. Back when I began, a US dollar bought four Swiss francs.  Recently the greenback would only fetch about .75 francs.  (This is one reason we say not to invest in Swiss francs for safety now.)

There have been times… such as 1980 shown in this chart from Grandfather.com (below) when the dollar strengthened so much it took seven years before it dropped. That’s a terribly long time if you are speculating against the buck.  Long enough in fact to go broke!

The dollar had every reason to go down but economic concerns caused the thundering herd to rush back to the dollar… just as they did in 2008.

multi-currency-debt

Here are seven ideas we’ll cover in the investing session.

Common Sense Investing Idea #1:  Expect a rebound in the US dollar in 2012.

A look at what we’ll cover in the investing session of our February 10,11, 12 2012 Quantum Thinking + Investing & Business Seminar in Mt. Dora will show how common sense can stray from common thought… but actually does make sense.  The road to profit in investing and business is to get ahead of the crowd.  Buy on the rumour… sell on the news.

Common Sense Investing Idea #2: Major Markets Now Offer Greater Value than Emerging Markets.

Fwd: time-photo

Really… think about this and look at the numbers above.  What most of the establishment calls “emerging markets” have long since emerged.  Is China emerging with its 3.5 trillion in reserves and 7.5% per annum growth rate compared to the USA with $149 billion in reserves and a growth rate too low to even mention?

Although all three so called emerging regional indices advanced last quarter: Asia by 3.6 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 3.8 % and Latin America by 9.2 %, many of these markets emerged long ago.

It just took most investors an extra decade to catch onto this fact.

In our upside down world (which is the present old common thought that emerging markets are the best value) is outmoded.  The so called major markets now offer equal or better value than major markets.

The numbers below show the average Price to Book Value,  PE Ratio and Return on Earnings of the shares in four Morgan Stanley Capital Indexes.

major vs emerging mkts

For the past two decades emerging market shares have been considerably better value than major markets with lower prices to book and  much better price earnings ratios.   The numbers above show that this is no longer the case and recent scares in Europe have made the equity values in Europe look even better.

Plus the US stock market may now offer one of the best places to buy.  The USA is still by far the largest economy and its demographics are much more geared for growth than Europe or Japane.  Plus US companies are lean mean profit generating machines now… as attested to the 14.7% return on earnngs figure above.

Our February investing sessions will look at potential US stock winners in 2012.

We’ll also see that Europe offers the best value of all for equities.  Problems in Japan and Europe create extreme value in both areas. Our reveiws will pull apart the bargains  in the  top six “Buy”-rated markets: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights.

Which portfolio would you rather have?

An implicit projection by Keppler Asset Management shows how much we should expect the Equally-Weighted World Index to rise over the next three to five years, 17.6%.   Shares in the European index are available at a 10% discount over the World Index.

keppler-charts

A look at the Irish Stock Exchange ISEQ General Index shows how shares can suddenly recover after investors panic.   The market turned gloomy over Ireland in mid 2011 and fled this market.

irish-market-chart

When this panic created over the top value in Irish equities, common sense finally prevailed… investors rushed back in and the market causing share prices to rapidly rise.

Irish ETF

iShares ETF managers offers the MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (Symbol EIRL NYSE) U.S.-listed ETF which provides exposure to the Irish economy.

EIRL is linked to the MSCI Ireland Investable Market 25/50 Index, a benchmark that is designed to measure the performance of stocks in the top 99% by market capitalization of equity securities listed on stock exchanges in Ireland.  The index consisted of appx. 20 securities, with large allocations to the materials (25%), consumer staples (23%), and industrials (18%) sectors.  Large holdings include CRH PLC, an Irish building materials group, the food company Kerry Group (11%) and drug development firm Elan Corporation (9%).

That idea wasn’t too ahead of itself was it?  So let’s take the plunge and go right past the Vietnam .com bubble.  Let’s look at why we are starting to expand our internet marketing now in China and Singapore (we’ll look at Nhom-Mua and Muachung two of Groupon’s Vietnam clones as well as China’s Baidu and Tencent in the business sessions of the seminar) and go to three ideas that will get many laughing again.

Common Sense Investing Idea #3:  Three New Emerging Markets

We will not abandon the so called emerging markets mentioned above and will review the top value emerging markets:  Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey.

Then we’ll focus on three new emerging markets: Cuba, Scotland & North Korea!

Cuba: Almost a decade ago I wrote Ecuador was a great place to invest:

retire-in-ecuador-remote

Our farm in Ecuador we bought in 1999.
One of my messages back then said: 60 million baby boomers will begin to retire in just a few years. Many of their pensions and social security will be severely squeezed by inflation, leaving these people with one of five options.

#1: Keep working
#2: Move to less expensive areas within the US
#3: Export their retirement
#4: Live in near poverty
#5: Die

This is why I also believe in Ecuador. Imagine this. 60 million boomers will retire over the next 20 years. We boomers are the most spoiled group of consumers as a demographic class that has ever existed on earth. We were promised the world. We were given the world. Now the magic is about to disappear.

Assume that 10% of these will decide to move to less expensive countries. That’s 6 million people. Where is the most likely place to go? Eastern Europe offers great potential but is a long distance from the US.

Canada is out…too expensive and too cold. Most people will head south.

Mexico stands to be #1, but prices there are rising quickly and there is a lot of anti-gringo sentiment. After all there have been numerous Mexican-American wars. The building of a fence across the border will not help either. Yet it’s still probably the place that will benefit the most due to location.

The low end Caribbean is also good except for those darn hurricanes that will put lots of people off…plus many water and transportation problems and the fact that few of the islands have a real infrastructure.

Panama is good…lots of English spoken, many Yanks already there, but weather is lousy if you want to be in town (hot and humid) and prices are no longer low. Ditto for Costa Rica. Central America lacks infrastructure though there are some nice gringo settlements though they are expensive. Colombia is the first nation with a progressive economy and full infrastructure after Panama and Mexico. This could be a wonderful place but security will stop most from going there. If the security/drug/crime issues are resolved and image cleans up…go buy in Colombia. This will be a great opportunity.

Cuba. When this opens it will be the best.  A great place to buy when you can assume there will be no negative political circumstances.

Since that time I have been watching Cuba and the time to start is NOW.

Cuba is already Canada’s #1 tourist destination.  The US State department is already letting tour operators take Americans on tour in Cuba.  The Cuban government has started to open up capitalism and the ability to sell private goods and property.

Now is the time to start learning!

Scotland: Scotland’s first minister, Alex Salmond, announced plans to hold an independence referendum in the autumn of 2014.  This may seem surprising to many but certainly is not a new idea.  The origins of the independence movement in Scotland began almost as soon as the unification with England took place in 1707.

At the time, the view was that Scotland was in desperate need of financial support, but opponents of the move were outraged by claims that the Scots who put their names to the Act of Union were bribed.  Scotland’s Bard, Robert Burns, famously wrote: “We are bought and sold for English gold. Such a parcel of rogues in a nation.”

In 1934, the Scottish National Party (SNP) who supports independence began.

What makes these times different is that after decades of ups-and downs, the SNP won its first election in 2007 and then won again, in 2011.

Let me add here that Scotland is already a good place to invest.

Scotland provides educational excellence with top notch universities.  University of Edinburgh is regarded as one of the most prestigious universities in the world. The university is ranked 6th and 7th in Europe according to the 2011 QS and Times Higher Education Ranking.

Scotland is well known for scientific success.  Scotland has two of the top 10 best scientific institutions in the world for scientists to work in according to The Scientist, 2011 and a strong tradition of creativity, ingenuity and invention. Scots pioneered MRI scanning, the ATM, golf, Dolly the Sheep, television and penicillin.

Scotland offers higher returns.  Scotland is one of the most cost-effective regions in the UK…. 30 percent more cost-effective to set up and run a facility here.  Leading international companies, such as Amazon, Mitsubishi Power Systems, Barclays, Blackrock and Gamesa chose Scotland to expand their operations.

The difference is that there is a much higher chance of a yes vote for Scottish independence and no one knows  exactly how events would then unfold. The likely timescale from a “Yes” vote to full independence would be lengthy providing ripe opportunity for investors and business who stayed tuned to the change.

North Korea:  Perhaps the most laughable of all?  Laughing all the way to bank in ten or 15 years… yes.

North Korea’s population rose to 24.2 million in 2010 from 24.1 million in 2009, about half of South Korea. Inter-Korean trade rose 13.9 percent from a year earlier to $1.9 billion last year.

South Korea plans to set up a fund to raise as much as 55 trillion won to pay for eventual reunification with North Korea, Unification Minister Yu Woo Ik said in an interview with Bloomberg last October.

China’s trade with North Korea has more than doubled since 2006, and Beijing’s investment in North Korea and in Chinese border infrastructure has been rising.

North Korea sells commodities such as copper, coal and iron ore to China. By some estimates, China now accounts for more than 70% of North Korea’s foreign trade, with Russia believed to account for most of the rest.

China has been pouring money into the border area over the past two years in a bid to encourage North Korea to launch Chinese-style market reforms, analysts say.

North Korea’s trade expanded more than 20 percent in 2010 to $6.1 billion on growing business with China.

Chinese, South Korean and about 30 European companies are now operate in North Korea.  The first investments will be in these firms.

China agreed during senior-level talks last year to make investments totaling US$10 billion to build railways, housing and other infrastructure.

China and North Korea are now allowing Chinese group tours to North Korea.

China will invest 45 billion yuan ($7.1 billion) over the next five years to expand Dandong Port, a key trade link to isolated North Korea.

Dandong, which lies on the North Korean border, will be able to handle more than 100 million tonnes of freight annually once the expansion is complete, compared with 60 million tonnes at present, the report said, citing a government statement.

Firms in our Research Now

The International Passenger Transport Company of the Port of Dandong Group. Established in July 1998. It mainly transports the passengers and small pieces of goods from Dandong, China to Inchon, Korea. It is a key opening up the windows of Dandong City. Its annual passenger handling capacity and the economic benefit always rank top places among the 12 national routes to Korea.

dandong
Wanxiang Group Mining.  North Korea’s mineral reserves are valued at 6 trillion.

Yanbian Tianyu International Trade Company, special economic zones and casino in North Korea. They managed the  inaugural Yanji – Hunchun – North Korean Luoxian – Mount Kumgang tourism line and its maiden voyage with over 130 tourists.  This maiden voyage took place August 29 to September 2, 2012 from Yanji, via China’s Quanhe River Port and North Korea’s Yuantingli Port, to Luoxian City, and then rode North Korea’s Wanjingfeng Cruise straight to Mount Kumgang.  Then they visited Jiulong Yuan, Hai Jingang, Wanwu Xiang, Sanri Pu and other attractions in Mount Kumgang North Korea.

Orascom Telcom. Egypt’s phone company that is building a 3G mobile phone network.

France’s La Farge. Cement maker owns 30% of a North Korean cement factory with 3,000 employees.

German outsourcer, Nosotek does North Korean computer programming.

Swedish Noko makes jeans in North Korea.

Nine Mode… Men’s Shirts.

Common Sense Investing Idea #4:  Invest in Canada for Growth and Safety
You may not be laughing so much now, but be aware that taking early risks in new pioneer markets like this requires a balancing act with investments in safe economies like Canada as well.  So we’ll look at Canadian investment opportunities also.

Canada has economically outperformed most industrialized countries during these recent difficult years for the global economy.

Forbes magazine “ranks Canada as the best place on the planet for businesses to grow and create jobs.” The OECD and the IMF predict Canada’s economy will again be among the leaders of the industrialized world over the next two years.

For the fourth year in a row, this body, the World Economic Forum, says that Canadian bg anks are the soundest in the world.

Canada has sound fundamentals… the lowest overall tax rate on new business investment…. and the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7  by far.

Canada is also one of only two G-7 countries that has recouped all of the jobs lost during the 2007-2008 global recession.

The Upcoming February investing sessions will include Canadian bonds, shares and ETFs that invest in Canada.

Common Sense Investing Idea #5: Choose Bonds Over Shares Whenever You Can.

Long term readers at this site have known about the potential in bonds and value for many years and reviewing great bond deals is a major part of our seminars.

A January 5, 2012 USA Today article entitled: “Why are bonds outperforming stocks over long term?” by Matt Krantz confirms what we have shared when it said:  Despite a reputation for being a slow-growing alternative to stocks for the risk-averse, bonds just passed stocks’ long-term performance over the past 30 years.
Given the rally in bonds in 2011, it might not be surprising that the Ibbotson Associates SBBI bonds index, a broad bond measure, returned 28% last year, crushing the 2.1% return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 including dividends. The bond index also topped stocks for the past 10 and 20 years.

What’s more surprising, though, since it contradicts the widespread belief that stocks beat bonds, is that the Ibbotson Associates SBBI bond index has returned 11.03% a year on average over the past 30 years, edging out the 10.98% return of stocks.
Bonds’ impressive run is being powered by several factors, including:

•Distrust of the stock market’s future. An entire class of investors is rattled by a dismal decade for stocks, including double-digit losses in four separate years since 2000, says Bill Larkin of Cabot Money Management. “People are looking at the (stock market) and seeing the casino component,” he says. “They’ve taken big hits.”

•Search for investment income. Aging Americans nearing or in retirement are deciding they crave steady income and don’t have the stomach for stocks’ higher volatility, Winans says.

•Historic declines in interest rates and inflation. The continual movement down in interest rates and inflation the past 30 years has been a boon for bonds, which rise in price as interest rates fall, says Charles Crane of Douglass Winthrop Advisors.

It would be a mistake to assume that bonds’ strong run over the 30 years is destined to repeat, says Mark Hebner of Index Funds Advisors. Bonds have had stock-beating periods before, but stocks, over the very long term, still have beaten bonds, he says.

Choosing bonds over shares does not mean just invest in plain Jane bonds.  This means to look for bonds that perform like shares and the bonds to find now are long bonds. This once again upsets common thought which is… in risky times… get short term bonds.  Now times are so risky that short bonds have the greatest risk and no yield. Long bonds are more likely to weather any 2012 storms and pay really nice yields plus extra forex potential now.

Here are a few of the bond blocks we’ll review and update at the upcoming seminar:

HUF HUNGARYGOVT    6,500 24-06-2019 Ba1 BB+  8,76

TRY INTBKRECON&DEV 13,625  09-05-2017 Aaa AAA 7,61

RUB RUSSIA-EUROBOND 7,850 2 10-03-2018 Baa1 BBB+ 7,08

ZAR REPSOUTHAFRICA 10,500 21-12-2026 A3 A 8,21

BRL    BRAZIL REP 12,500 05-01-2022    Baa2 BBB    8,56

MXN MEXICANBONOS 10,000 05-12-2024 Baa1 A-  6,22

AUD EUROPEANINVTBK 6,125  23-01-2017 Aaa AAA 5,99

This portfolio yields 7.49%

USD INDONESIA(REP) 5,875  13-03-2020 Baa3 BB+  3,72

USD TURKEY REP OF 5,125  25-03-2022 Ba2    BB  7,66

USD SOUTH AFRICA 5,875 2 30-05-2022 A3 BBB+ 4,19

USD UKRAINE GOVT 7,950  23-02-2021 B2 B+ 9,45

This portfolio yields 5.14%

AUD EUROPEANINVTBK 6,125  23-01-2017 Aaa AAA 5,99

NZD KFW 6,375   17-02-2015 Aaa AAA 3,59

CAD CANADA-GOV’T 4,250  01-06-2018 Aaa AAA 1,55

USD UKRAINE GOVT 7,950  23-02-2021 B2 B+ 9,45

This portfolio yields 5.41%

EUR PORTUGUESEOT’S 4,750  14-06-2019 Ba2 BB 17,00

EUR IRISH GOVT 4,500  18-04-2020 Ba1 BBB+  6,75

EUR SPANISHGOV’T 4,000  30-04-2020 A1 A  4,49

This portfolio yields 9.41%

In the seminar we look at a mix and match bond tactic so investors can learn how to match the best combo to their own investing.  Then we examine Bond ETFs that allow even small investors to gain this added income.

See more about why bonds have performed better than shares at Buy Better Bonds

Common Sense Investing Idea #6:  Bet Against the Swiss franc

Are most investors 52 days from disaster?

Fed charts

The peak in this chart… shows a risk that could come this year… by March 20, 2012… 52 from now.  See more at Are we 52 days from Disaster?

Common Sense Investing Idea #7: Invest in the Green Revolution, Water, Agriculture and Food.

This idea stems from where does one store value in this time when so many traditional stores of value are at risk?

At this upcoming seminar, we’ll see why necessity is always a good place to store value… food clothing and shelter.

Invest in Water

We’ll look at eleven multi currency investments in water because the root of all three of our basics  is water.  Water investments offer great potential. This does not negate the need to suit such investments to your needs.

While the world’s population tripled in the 20th century, the use of renewable water resources has grown six-fold. Within the next fifty years, the world population will increase by another 40% to 50%.  This population growth – coupled with added water demand per person from industrialization and urbanization – will result in an increasing demand for water.

Yet the world may be entering an era of less water!

An August 22, 2011 article in Time Magazine  entitled “Parched Earth” by Bryan Walsh says:  Hurricanes announce themselves on radar screens before slamming into an unlucky coast. Tornadoes strike with little warning, but no one can doubt what’s going on the moment a black funnel cloud touches down. If we’re lucky, a tsunami offers a brief tip-off — the unnatural sight of the ocean swiftly retreating from the beach — before it cuts a swath of death and destruction.

But a drought is different. It begins with a few dry weeks strung end to end, cloudless skies and hot weather. Lawns brown as if toasted, and river and lake levels drop, like puddles drying after the rain. Farmers worry over wilting crops as soil turns to useless dust. But for most of us, life goes on as normal, the dry days in the background — until one moment we wake up and realize we’re living through a natural crisis.

This summer the python has gripped much of the southern U.S., from the burned fringes of Arizona — singed by massive wildfires — to usually swampy Georgia. Hardest hit is Texas, which is suffering through the worst one-year drought on record, receiving an average of just 6.53 in. (17 cm) of rain so far this year, well off the 34 in. (86 cm) it receives over a normal 12 months. At the end of July, a record-breaking 12% of the continental U.S. was in a state of “exceptional drought” — the most severe ranking given by the National Drought Mitigation Center. More than 2 million acres (809,000 hectares) of farmland in Texas have been abandoned, and streets are cracking as trees desperately draw the remaining moisture from the ground. Taps are dry in one North Texas town.

And there’s evidence — when it comes to rainfall, at least — that the good years we’ve enjoyed in the past may have been more of an aberration than we realize. The Southwest in particular has a history over the past two millennia of severe droughts that lasted for decades; deeper in the geologic past, dust bowls endured for centuries. Just as worrying, climate change is expected to further dry out much of the region, multiplying the impact of population growth and expanding demand for water. What the South is facing may be not just a drought but the first signs of a permanent dry, one to which we’ll need to adapt — if we can.

This article was accompanied by a 17 Photo Essay “Picturing the American Drought” by George Steinmet

dry lake

This, one of 17, photo entitled “The Island,” shows a resort on Lake Travis, that is normally a peninsula surrounded almost completely by water. All the photos are linked below.

One More Vital point About Investments and Water.

The United Nations Water agency UNwater.org says:  A Drought in Your Portfolio?

The World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) participated in the EIRIS conference on global water risk research. The conference explored the investment case for considering the risks and opportunities arising from water scarcity as part of a wider sustainable investment strategy, and heralded the launch of the EIRIS’ Global Water Risk report.

The report shows that out of the 2000 global companies analysed 54% are exposed to water risks but take little or no action to mitigate them, and approximately half show no evidence of any management response to water risks whatsoever.

So when thinking about any investment, look at the water element… this is becoming a necessity that can help your future from becoming all wet!

At our next International Investing & Business Seminar, we will look at eleven ways to profit from investing and business in water agriculture and food.

What an incredible place we are in!  The present screaming so quickly from the past and dragging us often screaming and stressed into the future.  Join Merri and me and our host of expert speakers as we examine ways to make the here and now and our future not only exciting but prosperous and safe by simply applying Common Sense.

Join us for our Quantum Thinking + Investing & Business Seminar February 10, 11, 12, 2012 Mt. Dora, Florida.

Gary

Better yet join our seminars all year long free as an International Club member.

Belong to the International Club

Who Gets the 36 Cents?

 

I wonder.   Who does the government owe 36 cents?

According to Treasurydirect.com, as of October 31, 2017 the cost of interest on  the total US public debt of $20,467,375,664,755.32 (20 trillion+) was $24,411,569,716.36 (24 billion+).

The 36 cents isn’t much of a problem.  The other 20 trillion is.

This is good news and bad… the rock and the hard spot.  The bad news is that the rock (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… not quite into 2018 and debt has shot past 20 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government can borrow and borrow and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest this year will amount to around $483 billion on the 20 trillion of debt.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9,229,172,659,218.31 (9 trillion +) the interest that year was $451,154,049,950.63 (451 billion +).

Interest payments in 2017 are 7% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 100% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

Here is the very hard spot.  The downside is that low interest has reduced earnings of investors.  Low interest has ruined the lifestyles of many who have retired.

Here is what happened and why the problem may exist for quite a bit longer.

If investors can increase the interest rate to 6% from the lousy 1% (or so) they earn now, they gain 1,263% more over 30 years.  Anyone living off interest, who is drawing down their portfolio over 20 years, makes 57% more annual income every year.

But if investors get 6% interest instead of 1%, the government has to also pay more on it debt.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.  

Rising interest rates, that we would like to see as investors, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest goes to 6% it is like the $20+ trillion national debt  rising to 100 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increases, a 5% increase in interest rates would increase the national debt by five times.

A tax increase?  The current tax act being proposed reduces, not increases, revenue.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future. This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now.

Interest rates create a massive problem on two sides of the same coin.  Raise rates the massive national debts ruins the purchasing power of currencies.  Keep interest rates low and capitalism does not work for investors.  Politicians simply borrow more (on our behalf) but for their benefit.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2018.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2018 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2018 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 


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