Market Cycles & Value Review


Here are market cycles and value review.

Fwd: dji-chart tgas:

This site regularly reviews this chart which has helped our global investing over many years.  See updates below.

Upon hearing that the British Prime Minister has been fighting with the other 26 members of the EU over how to solve the continent’s ongoing Euro debt crisis, I quickly dusted off our long term global equity charts to look again at cycles and value.

If we look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index for the past 100 years or so… you see that such conflicts are not a new phenomenon.  There is a historical connection between stock market downturns and arguments in Europe.  We use this Dow average because most international stock markets are still closely correlated to U.S. markets. Consider the Lipper international large-cap core index, which measures the largest funds that invest in stocks of large companies globally that are selling at reasonable prices, relative to earnings. Over the past five years, Lipper’s large-cap core international and large-cap domestic core indexes have a 94% correlation.

The charts below come from Stockcharts.com which is linked below because they can give us some ideas of what might happen next in global equity markets over the next several years.

dow charts

This chart shows that from 1895, the DJI rose from around 50 to 74.30 in 1906, a 50% growth in 11 years. Then up to 1915, the Dow slipped back to 52.30,  a 25%  drop during the next 9 years including a period when England (and then the USA) were in conflict with Europe (WWI).

From 1915 to 1929 the DJI shot to 381.17, a 277% gain in 14 years before falling back 75% to 92.92 over 13 years by 1942. Again this was when England (and then the USA) was into a conflict with Europe (WWII).

The 24 year post war boom from 1942 to 1966 saw the Dow rise to 995.92, a whopping uptick of 1,018%.

From 1966 to 1982 the market fell again to 776.91 a -22%  over 16 years that ended around the time when England and the USA (led by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher) fought Eastern Europe.  The Soviet Union crumbled in 1991.

That post war took the market even higher to 11,722, a 1,410% climb in 18 years.  After this, the market hit the doldrums again and has barely risen up to around 12,000  (a 3% gain) before inflation over the last 11 years.  So we should have already been asking… when would England and Europe begin to fight again?

And so here we are. The BBC wrote:  Leaders from the 27 European Union countries spent nearly 10 hours overnight in Brussels trying to agree a plan.

They’re hoping to avoid another big cash crisis, like when Greece ran out of money.

But Mr Cameron refused to sign, saying the plan wouldn’t be good for the UK.

BBC article

Photo From BBC article (See link below)

Let’s recap this in time:

From 1895,  the DJI rose from around 50

1895 to 1906                   74.30  + 24.30  in 11 years

1906 to 1915                     52.30 – 22.00   in 9 years

WWI

1915 to 1929                    381.17  +277     in 14 years

1929 to 1942                     92.92  – 289    in  13 years

WWII

1942 to 1966                     995.15  +903   in 24 years

1966 to 1982                     776.91   -127     in 16 years

Cold War

1982 to 2000                   11,722  +10,946 in 18 years

to 2011                              12,099   + 307    in 11 years

Now let’s reveiw this by scrtaching up that 100 years chart a bit.

dow-chart

The trends are fairly clear that each major market downturn ended up with a major conflict… shooting or not between England and Europe.

Is this the war we have been looking for?  Is this UK versus Europe?  Probably not.  There is probably more… but one fact cannot be avoided.  Every long term stock market bear has followed by a major struggle between England and Europe and we have that now.

This suggests that markets are not yet ready to shift back into the next bull era which means we still have time ahead of extraordinary value.

This means that the two best strategies are to be an active trader… for the very few or to diversify into shares with  great value and strength to protect against the turmoil by riding through the storm... best for most of us.

Yesterday’s message looked at an easy way to cash in on this opportunity with the First Eagle Overseas Fund (Symbol-SGOVX).

At the end of 2011, the fund had assets over $10 billion invested in nearly 200 different holdings.

This fund has been down for several years and offers a bumpy ride. Yet it has finished in its sector’s top five percent numerous times. It has been rising 3.94 percent over the past five years and 13.08 percent over the past decade.

First Eagle Overseas Fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing primarily in equities issued by non-U.S. corporations. Management’s research-driven approach seeks to minimize risk by focusing on undervalued securities.

The last year this fund outperformed was 2008,  but the fund’s exposure to Japan kept profits down due to the earthquake and nuclear scares.  The fund also mixes in gold and bonds. The fund built up a substantial cash position in 2011 so a buying spree of value shares can be expected.

The fund can invest in fixed-income securities, short-term debt instruments, gold and other precious metals, and even futures contracts related to precious metals and takes a ‘value’ approach.   The objective is to find ‘margins of safety’ in each investment to protect capital but not worry about temporary losses in share value due to short term investor sentiment and normal share price volatility.  The managers look for intrinsic value in good businesses, that are available at deep discounts.

Minimum investment is $2,500.

Here are some of the other fund’s statistics from the fund’s website:

first-eagle-fund

Performance.

first-eagle-fund

Regional Allocation.

first-eagle-fund

Asset Allocation.

first-eagle-fund

Largest Positions.

Multi currency portfolio subscribers can see a more details report at the Gary Scott Club protected site.

Learn how to get a multi currency portfolio password here.

England may or may not decide to get along with Europe. Whatever the resolution, the crisis and global volatility will not end soon.  Realize that this turmoil is natural… creates value now but also requires diversification for safety.

To make sure we can reach you quickly with multi currency changes created by the turmoil we have expanded beyond our daily email service… a new service in the circle… Tweets.

Twitter gives me the ability to get messages to you faster.  Sometimes I see something and I would like NOT to wait a day or two to get it out, so I invite you to follow my tweets (if you would like on-the-moment messages) http://twitter.com/garyascott

We hope that sharing our current experiences against the backdrop of the past will help you prosper from change.

Gary

Join us in January. Balance health with frequency and learn Spanish in four days!

Become a part of our business. Learn how to earn teaching Super Thinking even if you do not speak Spanish.

Belong to the International Club

Who Gets the 36 Cents?

 

I wonder.   Who does the government owe 36 cents?

According to Treasurydirect.com, as of October 31, 2017 the cost of interest on  the total US public debt of $20,467,375,664,755.32 (20 trillion+) was $24,411,569,716.36 (24 billion+).

The 36 cents isn’t much of a problem.  The other 20 trillion is.

This is good news and bad… the rock and the hard spot.  The bad news is that the rock (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… not quite into 2018 and debt has shot past 20 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government can borrow and borrow and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest this year will amount to around $483 billion on the 20 trillion of debt.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9,229,172,659,218.31 (9 trillion +) the interest that year was $451,154,049,950.63 (451 billion +).

Interest payments in 2017 are 7% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 100% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

Here is the very hard spot.  The downside is that low interest has reduced earnings of investors.  Low interest has ruined the lifestyles of many who have retired.

Here is what happened and why the problem may exist for quite a bit longer.

If investors can increase the interest rate to 6% from the lousy 1% (or so) they earn now, they gain 1,263% more over 30 years.  Anyone living off interest, who is drawing down their portfolio over 20 years, makes 57% more annual income every year.

But if investors get 6% interest instead of 1%, the government has to also pay more on it debt.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.  

Rising interest rates, that we would like to see as investors, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest goes to 6% it is like the $20+ trillion national debt  rising to 100 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increases, a 5% increase in interest rates would increase the national debt by five times.

A tax increase?  The current tax act being proposed reduces, not increases, revenue.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future. This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now.

Interest rates create a massive problem on two sides of the same coin.  Raise rates the massive national debts ruins the purchasing power of currencies.  Keep interest rates low and capitalism does not work for investors.  Politicians simply borrow more (on our behalf) but for their benefit.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2018.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2018 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

27 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2018 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a 2013 report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” and updated this in 2017.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” offers enormous profit potential in 2017.

The report “Silver Dip 2017” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save $418.78… “plus more” when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus more.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78, “plus more”.

What’s the “plus more”?

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus any online reports, online course updates or online programs we create throughout 2017 all at no additional fee. The club membership entitled you to everything.

The International Club membership is $499, but we want to encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

Gary Scott’s latest report “Cash In Crash” is available at Amazon.com

See the charts in this message in greater detail at Stockcharts.com

Read BBC article on Cameron’s Rejection

First Eagle’s website


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