How High the Silver Price – or Low


How high can the silver price rise… or how low can it go?

How about 42 cents an ounce.  Probably not, but…

silver-price-article

if we have a time machine back, we can see even lower silver prices.. 33 cents an ounce… about 100th of what they are now!  Let’s look at the past to see if we can get an idea about what the price of silver might be ahead.

This week our messages are reviewing the importance of value in all investments.   We are grappling with how to see value during these times of change and likely inflation. We are looking for value in five good places to invest… equities, multi currency investments, commodities, real estate and your own micro business.

silver-price-article

This message looks at one of the commodities… silver.

Like gold, getting a bellwether to gauge silver’s real value is tough because its price was fixed and/or manipulated for so many years.

If we look way back, we’ll see a trend.  For decades, the price of silver was $1.29.  (1792 to 1813).  The Coinage Act of 1792 was one of the first acts of America’s Congress that fixed a dollar at 27 grams of silver, or about 86.8 percent of a troy ounce. With silver trading at $30 an ounce,  that same 27 grams would be worth over $25.

Then the price of silver  jumped just a few cents for three years (probably related to the Napoleonic wars) before settling back to $1.29 an ounce until 1861.

In 1861 the price broke loose and rose to $1.70.  The first shots were fired on Ft. Sumpter April 12, 1861… I think we can see a connection.  War inflation… rising price of silver.

After the War Between the States, the price of silver drifted down into the $1.40 range until the 1870s when it began to collapse and tumbled all the way down into the .50 cent range by early 1900s.

The price of silver remained there until it bumped back up over a dollar for just a couple of years after WWI.

Then the price collapsed again and stayed down as low as .30 cents an ounce until 1942 which is where our analysis begins with silver being worth about .44 cents an ounce.

From 1942 to 1946 the price of silver almost doubled to 86 cents where it stayed in this range until 1959 when it began to rise again going all the way to $1.97 by 1972.

The price of silver temporarily exploded reaching $48 an ounce before settling back down as the chart below shows.

Charts from silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

silvercharts

As the gold.org chart below shows silver prices rose slowly until 2004, when they began a steep climb.

silvercharts

Silver prices rose from .44 cents an ounce until running over $30 an ounce and now have settled at a current silver price of about $27.

Rising from .44 cents in 1942 to $27.00, silver has appreciated 61 times in these  69 years.

Let’s review the increase in other commodities and services during the same period using our analysis from our Gold Review Summary that was posted at this site of earlier this year.

Prices (1942 to 1967 source: “Remember When” by Seek Publishing 2007 to 2010: US Bureau of Labor)

gold-price-comparison

Biggest increase: Harvard tuition 80 times increase.

House prices from 1942 until 2010 increased 67 times.

Silver has risen 61 times.

Gold has risen about 41 times  (at $1,383).

Cars jumped 30 times.

Movies  27 times.

Wages increased 24 times.

Rentals are up 20 times.

Gas 20 times.

Postage 15 times.

Bread 15 times.

Pound of sugar 10 times.

Hamburger about 9 times.

Coffee, bacon, eggs all about 8 times increase.

Milk only five times.

These guidelines suggests that a great deal of the inflation protection has already kicked into silver’s price.

Because this is a complex subject, I asked a long time friend, Michael Checkan, and his nephew, Rich, to assist with their views.

Michael has built and run one of the most respected gold, silver and forex firms, Asset Strategies Inc., in the US and we have worked with him for over 20 years.

Rich will speak on gold and silver at our upcoming Mt. Dora seminar February 11.  See details below.

Here is what Michael and Rich have recently written about silver.

silver-price-article

Why “Junk Silver” Should Be Your Next Precious Metals Purchase

By Michael Checkan

Has silver reached its peak? Not on your life, says Michael Checkan, president of Asset Strategies International. In fact, silver would have to triple from here just to match its old highs.

Of all the forms of precious metals you can own, here’s why we believe your very next purchase should be at least a bag or two of the 90% silver coins that were minted by the U.S. Treasury prior to 1965.

These coins are commonly referred to as “junk silver,” but there’s nothing junky about them. They got that designation because they’ve been in circulation so long, they have no value to collectors. Numismatists may not like them. But we love them. We think they are the single most practical way to own precious metals today. Here’s why:

#1. They’re the real thing. The dimes, quarters, and half-dollars made by the U.S. Mint prior to 1965 are instantly recognized as “the real thing.” They don’t need to be assayed to determine their precious metals’ content; they don’t need to be appraised by an expert to tell you what grade they are. Virtually anywhere you go, you can find a buyer who knows that a $100 face-value bag of these coins contains 71.2 ounces of pure silver and will pay you accordingly.

#2. They are readily divisible. A bag of these coins is easily and instantly divisible. Need just a few bucks to clinch a deal? A handful of silver dimes will do the job. These 90% pure silver coins really can work as “pocket change.” Try doing that with a one-ounce gold coin or 100-ounce bar of silver.

#3. They’ve never been confiscated. For anyone who worries that the U.S. government may once again try to confiscate all of the gold in the United States – as Franklin Roosevelt did back in 1933 – here’s a reassuring fact: silver coins have never been subject to confiscation. You don’t need to lie about owning them. (Of course, you should never brag to anyone – a neighbor or a government bureaucrat – about any precious metals you own.)

#4. They are extra convenient. Most dealers sell these coins in $1,000 face-value bags. We do, too, of course. But at today’s prices, those 712 ounces of silver will cost you around $21,800.

That’s why we break these bags down into 10 bags of $100 face-value coins, making them much more affordable. (They are also easier to store and, when it comes time to sell, easier to liquidate.) We recommend that every family own a few of them.

#5. The premiums are low. Because there is a very active market for these pre-1965 silver coins, premiums tend to be low. You shouldn’t have to pay more than 6-8% above the spot price of silver. Of course, if there’s another “run” on junk silver bags, as there was a few years ago, the premiums can skyrocket overnight.

Here at ASI, we take pride in having some of the lowest premiums in the country. But always shop around to get the very best deal you can. When you do, be sure you’re comparing apples and apples, not apples and kumquats. Insist that your coins are shipped to you by U.S. Post Office insured registered mail, with a return receipt requested. And that the price you’re quoted includes everything, including shipping and insurance. Never, ever fall for a “buy below spot and we’ll store it free” pitch. If you ever hear that, run, don’t walk, to the nearest exit.

More Profitable Than Gold!

And now we come to our top reason for believing that silver is an even better investment than gold right now: It is far more undervalued than gold.

There are trillions of reasons to invest in precious metals today. I’m referring to the flood of paper dollars being cranked out non-stop by the U.S. Treasury. With federal deficits projected to hit $10 trillion over the next decade, every one of those dollars is going to fall in value.

When the value of the dollar drops, it costs more to buy anything. But gold and silver go up! They are an excellent way to protect the purchasing power of your savings.

Based on historic ratios, silver could triple from here and still be undervalued compared to gold. In fact, if silver simply matched its previous highs in inflation-adjusted dollars, it would be over $130 an ounce. When that happens, wouldn’t you like to have a few bags of junk silver coins hidden somewhere in your house, stored in a safe deposit box, or buried in your yard?

The Supply-Demand Equation

Unlike gold, silver has a ton of industrial applications. And here’s the important thing to know: When silver is used to make a computer or cell phone or take an X-ray, it’s gone. It can’t be recovered. At least not easily.

Of all the silver mined over the past 5,000 years, more than 90% of it has been used up. It’s gone forever.

For many years, the U.S. government maintained a stockpile of silver. It had millions of ounces of the stuff hidden away in caves somewhere. The original reason was to back up our paper money. Today, hardly anyone remembers when “silver certificates” were the legal tender of this country.

Now, every ounce of that silver is gone, too.

Meanwhile, demand for silver is taking off.  Industrial uses have been exploding, from new technology to “infection control” in hospitals. Investors are snapping up every “Walking Liberty” silver dollar the U.S. Mint produces. And new ways to invest in silver, such as exchange traded funds, have removed millions of ounces from the marketplace.

Higher demand and lower supplies add up to only one thing: Higher prices! But as we’ve pointed out many times, this is just beginning to happen. You can still buy silver for about half of its previous highs – while, gold, by comparison, has reached and past its all-time highs. When is the best time to buy silver? We believe it is now.  Michael

You can get more details on how to invest in silver from Rich Checkan at rcheckan@assetstrategies.com

silver-price-article

Silver in the raw.

Inflation is a likely scenario in our future.   Five good places to invest to protect against and gain from inflation are… equities, multi currency investments, commodities, real estate and your own micro business.

This message looked at a commodities idea, but there are some ways where you can benefit from two or three inflation fighting ideas at once.  One way for example that I have invested in silver… provides a multi currency play… plus an emerging equities opportunity and a commodities investment including silver.  This is an investment in a Polish mining company that gives me a play in the Polish Zloty, emerging market equities, copper and silver.  We’ll learn about this investment in tomorrow’s message.

Gary

See how to save $300 and attend our next International investing seminar and ten more seminars FREE below.

Prosper From Forces of Inflation

Join Merri and me as we look at ways to prosper from the forces of inflation.

International Club 2011-12 Membership special until May 7, 2011 $1,499. Enroll here.

Inflation is here and the US dollar will fall. This fact is conformed in an April 12, 2011 Wall Street Journal article by Cynthia Lin “Inflation Concerns Weigh on Treasurys”. Here is an excerpt:  Worries that the central bank may be falling behind the curve on inflation weighed on U.S. Treasurys on Monday, even after a senior Federal Reserve official signaled that interest rates could stay low for longer.

The prospect of $66 billion of note and bond auctions also dragged prices lower, strategists said.

“The bottom line is that the current perception has subtly shifted toward the view that global central banks are in monetary tightening mode,” said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers. “Even though the Fed appears to be nowhere near that point, U.S. yields have been dragged higher by surrounding fears of inflation.”

Highlighting those fears, the 10-year breakeven rate—which measures the difference between 10-year Treasurys Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPs, and nominal rates—hit 2.655% on Monday, the highest since May 2006. That signals the market’s annual inflation expectation over the next decade.

As other central banks begin to tighten—including the European Central Bank, which raised rates by 0.25 percentage point Thursday—the fear that U.S. officials may be lowering their guard against global inflation has been a headache for bondholders. It has been especially  troubling for investors holding 30-year bonds, those most vulnerable to inflation eroding their value.

Government bonds were also under pressure from the prospect of supply.

The Treasury is scheduled to sell $66 billion in notes and bonds this week, comprising $32 billion in three-year notes, $21 billion in 10-year notes and $13 billion in 30-year bonds.

With a government shutdown averted, “the focus is back on how well these auctions will go and who will participate in the face of what appears to be future inflation,” said Kevin Giddis, president of fixed-income capital markets at Morgan Keegan.

Still, the policy debate underscores an increasing focus on inflation.

This means that while the US government continues to borrow to spend, other governments are cutting back… a sure sign of US inflation and a weakening greenback.

We consider this risk so high that we have taken the unusual step (the first time in our 43 years of business) of setting our 2012 Spring schedule.Then we created a new option so you can participate in all these seminars and course into 2012.

There are five ways to combat the destructive inflationary forces that will raise havoc with your purchasing power.

#1: Multi Currency Investing through US brokers and bankers abroad.

#2: Commodities.

#3:  Real estate.

#4:  Living in lower cost zones.

#5: Having your own micro business for extra earnings, freedom fulfillment and fun.

We have specialized for over four decades in helping our readers excel in these five inflation beating opportunities.

The big benefits of belonging to the International Club is the power of repetition, updates and international friendships.  As a club member you become friends with other members as you meet again and again.

international-club

International Club members are invited to our Florida home during the winter seminars.

Your first savings is $7,690 in 2011 and 2012 just on waived seminar fees.

As you will see below you can attend 11 Florida & North Carolina seminars that would otherwise cost $9,189.  The $1,499 membership saves you $7,690.

Join us and our International Club 2011 – Spring 2012 and enjoy this savings plus much more.

The International Club brings together experienced, like minded souls, who take a positive view and think outside the box..in a constructive…thoughtful way.

Merri and I are in our 43rd year of organizing courses, seminars and newsletters about international and quantum lifestyles. The importance of this sharing…by like minded souls…was reinforced when a delegate from a course sent an email that said:

My Dearest Merri and Gary, Thank you for your most gracious hospitality last weekend. I am just thrilled at being a part of your group. You and Gary were exactly as I imagined you to be, warm friendly, kind, considerate, genuine, helpful, fun, sincere, what else can I say……I felt so comfortable in your presence and learned so much in your course. I was sad to leave the farm that Sunday afternoon. You made us all feel so welcome and cared about. You were so kind to make arrangements for a ride with the other delegates from the Charlotte airport. They were so nice to me and so helpful, by the time the weekend was over I felt like they were my long lost brothers. Monday morning we all had breakfast at the airport together and I was so sad to see them go, I was sad the weekend was over, perhaps sad is not the right word for how I was feeling perhaps Gratitude is a better way to describe it. Grateful for having the opportunity to share the weekend with such wonderful, like minded Human Beings, in the beautiful mountains of North Carolina. Thank you Merri and Gary.

Thanks to you I now have new hope and a new direction to move forward in my life. Thanks to you I am so ready to move to Ecuador and begin a new life. I just have to figure out what I am going to do and how to do it.

I know by attending your classes and conferences that through education and due diligence I will make the right choices.

This delegate’s comments about “belonging and feeling like a brother” to the other delegates is a wonderful refrain we have heard from our readers, year after year.

21 years ago Merri and I created a way that readers can join us to be immersed in a year-long learning program through our International Club.

The ideas behind this program began all those years ago in Vienna, Austria while we were conducting a course there. One of our older delegates, had some sort of attack. The first fear was heart trouble. Several delegates took him to the hospital. Others stayed with him there. I don’t think that delegate was alone for a minute!

What impressed Merri and me was that no one asked the delegates to help this man.

The friendships of delegates sharing many courses had just grown so strong that it was a natural reaction, just as if a family member was ill. Fortunately, it was only travel fatigue and the delegate didn’t miss a session of the course!

When you join our International Club 2011- Spring 2012 you become part of a special family. The very first member to join the club all those years ago wrote, Thank you for the enjoyable and informative courses. I am pleased to be part of your international family and look forward to continuing my education at the next course.

His feeling struck a familiar chord. It has always been one of my greatest satisfactions to see how much fun delegates have getting together, sharing information and making friendships.

These courses somehow draw together like-minded souls. For this reason some delegates come back again and again. They come to learn, but also to be with their many friends made at the courses. When like-minded souls get together again and again to discuss a common purpose, magic happens! I can’t explain it in any other way-but it is true.

In a way our meetings are almost like family reunions. Perhaps it is getting together and reflecting on what has been said and what has been happening.

Learning with those who are also interested in the world creates thoughts that multiply the value of what we gain. This is hard to describe but results are most powerful and wonderful! This is to me is as important as the great financial benefit of attending many of our courses.

See our 2011 – Spring 2012 schedule below.

We started and have continued this program for 21 years because there are wonderful benefits from having repeat delegates at courses. Having repeat delegates makes the whole course somehow more exciting for all. Being a repeat delegate makes it easier to make and keep wealth and to lock in the knowledge you gain. It’s an exciting lifestyle. We have fun, gain adventure, discovery and friendships and share ways to improve our health and wealth!

Normally we only accept membership at the end of each year… but due to the unusual risk we see now, we added this new option to club membership that entitles you to all US courses in 2011 and the Spring of 2012…  in the cool Blue Ridge of North Carolina and  in Historic Old Florida.

The next saving is Seminars via MP3 (or disc) and one Ecuador tour fee is waived as well.

You’ll see a very busy 12 month schedule below.  Very few club members actually attend every course and tour…  but certainly some attend almost all of them!

If you attend even a few of the courses, you gain considerable savings… PLUS we record the investing and business seminars so you can have the course downloaded on your computer to listen on MP3 or on disc when you cannot attend in person.

This means that you stay in touch with all the business and investing ideas we develop at each of the investing and business seminars you cannot attend.

Here are the courses and tours where your seminar or tour fee is waived.  Then see more savings below.

May 7-8  Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

May  9-10   Shamanic Mingo Tour  ($499 or couple $749)

May  12-13-14   Cuenca Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)

May 17-18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

June 24-25, 2011  International Investing Made EZ,  Jefferson NC. ($499 or couple $749)

June 25-26, 2011   International Business Made EZ,  Jefferson NC. ($499 or couple $749)

international-club

International Club members are invited to our farm during June, September and October seminars in North Carolina.

June 16-17-18   Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

July 4-5-6      Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
.
Aug 21-22-23   Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)
Aug  25-26-27 Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Aug. 31-Sept. 1-2-3-4  Ecuador Export Tour ($749 – $999)

Sept.  8-11 Learn Spanish in 4 Days, Seattle, Washington ($749 or couple $999)

Sept 15-16-17  Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

Sept 19-20-21  Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749) Oct 21 22 23 Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

September 23-24-25, 2011  Investing & Business Beyond Logic, North Carolina with Blaine Watson ($499 or couple $699)

Multi-currency-courses

(Blaine Watson teaching delegates and International Club members at a previous seminar.)

Oct. 7-8, 2011  International Investing Made EZ,  Jefferson, NC. ($499 or couple $749)

Oct. 8-9, 2011  International Business Made EZ , Jefferson, NC. ($499 or couple $749)

Oct.  25-26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

November 3-6, 2011   Learn Spanish in 4 Days, Mt. Dora, Florida  ($749 or couple $999)

Nov. 9-10-11    Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 14-15-16   Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 18-19-20   Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
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Dec. 12-13-14   Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

January 12-15, 2012  Super Thinking + Spanish, Mt. Dora Florida ($749 or couple $999)

Feb. 10-11, 2012  International Investing Made EZ.  Mt. Dora FL ($499 or couple $749)

Feb.11-12, 2012   International Business Made EZ,  Mt. Dora FL ($499 or couple $749)

March 8-11, 2012  Super Thinking + Spanish, Mt. Dora Florida ($749 or couple $999)

Schedule subject to change. Always check final schedule at www.GaryAScott.com/catalog

International Club 2011 Membership $1,499. Enroll here

There is even a third saving:  $897 more!

When you join the club, I’ll email you our online course “International Business Made EZ”, a $299 value, plus four bonuses.  You receive the bonus course “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”. which also has a $299 value.

Plus I email you the bonus course “Tangled Web – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” which also has a $299 value.  Because our self publishing business has become totally online, I am send you this extra course free as I think it will help you have greater success.

In addition you’ll receive the 52 lesson course on how to create your own website using sitesell and finally I include an internet video on how to set up a website presented by our webmaster David Cross.

These courses are valued at $897… in addition to all the US seminars you can attend.

You may well wonder why I would make such an offer and ask why the cost is so low?

Let me answer this question frankly and from the heart. First, it helps us do a better job for you. We feel greatly enriched when we can really help our clients improve their lives. We have learned through years of experience the best way to do this is to meet with you regularly. We can best help you learn how to improve your health and wealth through continual expansion of knowledge.

Second, we gain enormous fulfillment from the many friendships we form through the years. Our friends have enriched our lives tremendously. Let me explain this in more detail.

As a member, you will be part of our international family that meets intensively over the next year to examine ways we can make our lives better. Our goal is beyond just having money. Our goal is to have quantum wealth… good health… wealth and fulfillment through service.

Though we give all course delegates our very best, we cannot help but to do a better job for those who come again and again. As we meet often; your particular wants, needs and desires become clear, and it is easier for us to help you find the right direction.

Another phenomenon is that repeat delegates help each other! They get to know one another, help each other learn, share their insights, make contacts, become friends and gain more wealth.

The fourth savings: Lifestyle for Two.

There is still more!

We have learned at our courses that many repeat delegates were couples.

We want couples! As a member of the program, you are entitled to bring another person to every single course or tour. The cost for that extra person will be ZERO!  You can bring whomever you wish. Bring your spouse, a friend, son or daughter, partner, accountant, adviser. You can bring the same person each time or a different person, whomever you choose to accompany you. (Accommodations and air fares relating to the courses are not included for members, delegates or their guests.)

Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year?

We look forward to seeing you at as many courses as possible and sharing this wonderful world of abundance and well being with you!

The fifth savings:   You gain Ecuador tour savings as a member of the International Club.

International Club members can benefit in Ecuador in the mountains or…

Meson de las flores

on the sea.  Delegates and International Club members on tour at Land of the Sun Inn.

ecuador sea view

View shot by an International Club member of real estate for sale on an Ecuador Pacific real estate tour.

The International Club offers this benefit… as a gift in Ecuador from the organizers of  Ecuador Discovery Tours.

The International Club fee is normally $1,799 yet during this Spring offer which ends May 7,  I have reduce membership to $1,499.  You save $300 more.

Take for example if you plan to attend our Super Thinking + Spanish, $999 for a couple and one International Investing and Business program, the normal cost would be $1,998.   International Club members attending just these two programs would already save… plus could attend all the other  Florida and North Carolina seminars plus receive $897 worth of emailed courses.

Our seminars and the Ecuador tour schedule is shown above.  You can attend all the Florida and North Carolina seminars and choose to accept an Ecuador’s savings.  Morya Ecuador Discovery SA has agreed to let International Club members attend one Ecuador tour in the schedule above for just $40 per person per day internal transportation cost.

This is a savings of up to $599.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club which allows you and your guest of your choice to attend all of these courses and tours.

Savings #6:  YOU SAVE EVEN MORE if you take a Galapagos Cruise.

We work closely with Haugan Travel which have expanded their fleet so club members can enjoy a Galapagos cruise for as little as $509 per person.

Galapagos-savings

Haugan Cruises has added three new vessels so they have a  broader range of cruises to suit all budgets. They now have 5 vessels and are offering several special introductory tours.  This creates special savings up to $1,000 for all our readers and provides club members an extra savings of up to $554 more…. a total of $1,554 saved.

Savings #7: Membership is normally $1,799 – save $300 more. International Club 2011-12  Membership $1,499 until May 7.

Add all the savings together!

You can calculate the savings as our schedule of all 2011 courses.

Florida & North Carolina seminars you can attend or receive in an MP3 file worth $9,189.

emailed courses sent to you worth $897.

Ecuador Tour Savings up to $599.

$300 membership discount until May 7, 2011.

Total Savings from your $1,499 club membership fee.

You Gain $10,985 of benefit for just $1,499.

Plus more if you take a Galapagos Cruise.

Lock in savings!

Here is one final benefit. When you enroll… we automatically lock in this low fee for next year so your savings are automatically renewed in 2012 and 2013 at $1,499. Of course if you choose not to renew, just simply cancel membership at no cost.

Let’s beat inflation.  Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year? We look forward to seeing you at as many courses as possible and sharing this wonderful world of abundance and well being with you!

Gary

International Club 2011-12 Membership $1,499. Enroll here.


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