See how this wise old owl can help us be better at focus in global investing and business.
Last week’s article Micro Business & Global Investing Success looked at the importance of concentration… of concentration in business…. investing and life.
The article argued that focused experience and information… focused beliefs, focused values and focused determination are threads that weave happiness and success.
Then this article shared how modern media…. especially the internet… might be detracting from concentration and even retraining our thought process to a shallower level.
It asked, “What will be the global consequences be if today’s children globally are being trained to have shallower thought?”
A reader replied to this message and said:
“Wow, Gary, your latest posting about concentration really caught my attention and made me slow down long enough to read (not scan) your entire article. As a teacher, I often plan lessons on my computer. I use the Internet to research information in order to supplement my lessons. My problem has been that I often spend so much time scanning websites and jumping from link to link that I lose my focus and it can take hours to write a simple 30-minute lesson.
“I, too, have worried about becoming addicted to the Internet. I was bragging to my friends that I don’t watch television, when I realized that my addiction to the world wide web could be just as brain numbing, or cause even more withdrawal symptoms than watching television.
“One way I have helped myself is by taking my laptop to a place where I don’t have Internet access. First, I make a mind map of my ideas on paper, and then I start putting my ideas on MS Word, inserting bolded notes in areas that I want to research or confirm later.
“I have had the same intuitive feeling that something was changing in our brains from the effects of reading online ‘where portals lead us on from one text, image, or video to another while we’re being bombarded by messages, alerts, and feeds’. As a reading teacher who works with children struggling to read, I have noticed a profound difference in those students who spend a lot of time surfing the Internet from those who don’t spend much time on the computer. The students who are addicted to surfing the Internet, text messaging, and video gaming, cannot seem to slow down enough to focus and read words on a printed page. It is almost as if it is painful for them to read this way. I have suggested to the school administration that these students seem to have a different way of reading that makes concentration difficult for them. Now a book delves into this theory.
“I will read the book, and I continue to look forward to your intuitive and timely postings.”
Yet concentration needs to be woven with diversification because in this material world, there is always something we do not know… no matter how much we concentrate. The quantum aspects of our existence are so complex that our logic can only see them as chaotic.
This is because of “sensitive dependence on initial conditions.” Take the weather as an example. The outcome of the weather… despite all our advances in understanding is unpredictable because it is so susceptible to the initial circumstances. Investing and business… our lives are the same…. unpredictable.
Who knows exactly where an individual cloud will be in the sky ten years from now? Or where we will be or any particular economy or investment?
We had an example at our farm of the importance of matching concentration with diversification. We always have a lot of excitement at the farm when we are preparing for our courses on international business and investing as many of our speakers come and stay in our cabins. We often have a lot of rushing to get everything in order.
Our helpers were rushing around when they a screech owl in the barn and wanted us to come down and see it.
I took my camera along and these shots perfectly depict in pictures what this message is trying to explain in words.
This is a bird’s eye view. Can you see the owl?
Perhaps and you see the whole picture, the rafters the steps, the walls.
But a bird’s eye view requires a complete picture, many dots we can connect.
See the owl better now?
Our fine feathered friend is easier to see. We know him better now.
Can we creep closer?
Yes. This was one brave owl and now we feel like we really know him.
However I decided to take my chances and walk up the steps. This and a zoom lens let us really see “Mr. Wise One”.
We see the color of his eyes and can literally count his feathers. This is what we try to do with our international investing and our micro business… get into all the details.
This often causes the downfall of a business… having too much concentration on the small stuff.
When we get too close… can we see the walls? Remember those rafters and the steps? Where are they now?
Global investing requires a complete view seeing both the broad horizons as well as the narrow perspective.
If we are too caught up seeing the trees, we miss the forest and having taken a glopbal view, we have expanded our forest… a lot!
So this week we will review several global investment and business thoughts blended with the idea of attaining the correct blend of concentration and diversification.
Today’s review is on Jyske Global Asset management’s Medium Risk Portfolio.
JGAM’s management team use a lot of concentrated research. They collect data from Jyske Bank, Morgan Stanley, Bank Credit Analysts and many other sources. The members of their portfolio management then filter this concentrated data through their knowledge and experience. Then they meet regularly to further concentrate all this data into a group consensus.
Hundreds of years of investing experience concentrated into a decision making process.
Yet that process creates a very diversified portfolio.
Here is JGAM’s current medium risk portfolio for investors with $200,000.
Currency Investment Percent of Portfolio
USD 5.800% E.ON 30.04.18 4.53%
USD 8.000% Mobile Tele 28.01.2012 5.06%
USD 6.000% EIB 14.08.13 5.31%
EUR 7.250% Bombardier 2016 2.20%
EUR 5.030% Gaz Capital 25.02.2014 3.25%
BRL 12.500% Brazil rep. of 05.01.16 4.99%
AUD 5,125% EIB 30.05.17 4.88%
CAD CAD – No.1 Interest Account 5.15%
Fixed income Subtotal 35.36%
CHF Kuehne & Nagel Intl AG 3.19%
CHF Nestle SA 2.99%
CHF Novartis 3.07%
DKK Carlsberg B 5.49%
DKK Neurosearch A/S 0.56%
DKK Novo Nordisk B 4.47%
EUR Adidas AG 1.83%
EUR Bayer AG 1.75%
EUR Siemens AG 1.95%
HKD China Mobile 5.49%
JPY Toshiba Corp 6502 3.14%
SEK ABB Ltd 3.10%
USD Apple Computer Inc. Com 4.07%
USD Cisco Systems Inc 1.97%
USD Gazprom-ADR (E/C) 3.02%
USD Teva Pharmaceutical ADR 3.92%
USD iShares Msci Ac Far East XJP 2.21%
Equities Subtotal 52.22%
USD ETFS Metal Secs Physical Gold 6.71%
Subtotal Alternatives: 6.71%
Cash: USD 5.71%
This is concentration and diversification in global investing action.
Join Merri and me in Copenhagen to learn better ways to concentrate and diversify your global investing.
See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.
We also really enjoy the restaurants and coffee shops along Nyhavn.
We need concentration and diversification for good global investing and business because we live in chaos.
When we combine our logic… intuition and experience we dramatically enhance the chances for success. One way to integrate these three assets of logic… intuition and experience is with music.
This quote is about Chaos Theory
“A Brief Introduction confirms a relation between music and the quantum aspects of our existence.
“Music can be created using fractals as well. Using the Lorenz attractor, Diana S. Dabby, a graduate student in electrical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has created variations of musical themes. (“Bach to Chaos: Chaotic Variations on a Classical Theme”, Science News, Dec. 24, 1994) By associating the musical notes of a piece of music like Bach’s Prelude in C with the x coordinates of the Lorenz attractor, and running a computer program, she has created variations of the theme of the song. Most musicians who hear the new sounds believe that the variations are very musical and creative.
See how music can help you learn to speak Spanish in just four days.
How We Can Serve You
2015 ScheduleSchedule 2015 Seminars and Courses
We conduct our Investment seminar at Jefferson Landing in Jefferson North Carolina.
Join Merri and me for all the courses and seminars that we’ll conduct to help you gain positive solutions to your economic, financial and lifestyle concerns.
Here is the courses we currently have scheduled in 2015.
Invest Better than a Hedge Fund Manager.Gain a one two punch on profits… experience and math at our October 17-18, 2015 Value Investment Seminar. I’ll be joined by Michael Keppler. Michael is one of the world’s foremost equity mathematical and statistical analysts. Between us, we have almost 100 years of equity research experience.
Learn how to protect and increase your savings and wealth with easy to start, very slow trading, safe and secure, worry and stress free portfolios that provide proven long term profit potential. Avoid the ups and downs that stock markets will see in the months ahead.
For example, many investors are surprised that shares seem wobbly now that the the US economy is looking so good?
Experienced investors however would be surprised if the markets were not shaken!
During the seminar we’ll share five reasons why we should expect a pull back in the US stock market now.
One reason for a stock crash is that the economic cycle is entering the boom stage.
There are three phases in the economy, recession, recovery and boom. During the boom phase, there is rising inflation. Short rates are pushed up. Bond yields rise. There is falling unemployment and P/E multiples expand. This is a good time to take profits.
Another reason for declines in September and October is seasonality.
A Keppler study shows that most appreciation in most major equity markets, is achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May.
Michael wrote: “Gary, We have done extensive research on seasonality and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. All the best to you and Merri. Michael”
Michael showed that over 30 Years Dow the Dow grew 8.16% overall.
Historically the worst months for stock markets are September and October. This week, the best chances for equity losses this year, have just begun. Think risk aversion now and think ahead for profit making in November.
As a run up to my 50th year of speaking and writing about savings and investments around the world I asked my mathematical and tax genius friends to share a weekend with us to cut through the fog of rapid change and show us ways to invest better than hedge fund managers.
Hedge Funds were the fashionable place to invest in the 1990s, but since then their performance has been falling.
However some hedge fund managers succeeded for one simple reason… experience. A Telegraph article “How can we avoid the next financial crisis? Urgently listen to those who foresaw this one” explains why a few managers succeeded, when it said: It’s no coincidence that the biggest winners of the downturn – John Paulson, Paolo Pellegrini and Jeffrey Greene – were approaching 50 years of age. They retained vivid memories of past real-estate problems. Youth was a detriment to pulling off the greatest trade ever and to preparing for the downturn.
The successful hedge fund investors succeeded where most failed because of their experience.
I’ll provide the 50 years of experience at the seminar. I have been through the rise of gold to over 800 an ounce (in the 1970s) and silver to $48. I experienced the stock market’s bear that began in 1968, the Black Monday crash in 1987 when the Dow had its biggest one day drop ever and the dotcom bubble as well as the collapse in 2008. I worked my way though the first dollar devaluation in 1971, the Plaza Accord arranged dollar collapse and two major downturns in the Japanese yen, plus invested through the 1970s, 1980s and late 2000 recessions.
We’ll share how these experiences prepares us for our investments now.
Michael Keppler provides the Math.
The idea of using math to find good value equity investments led me to ask mathematical analyst, Michael Keppler, to join us in the Blue Ridge for the seminar.
Michael is a brilliant mathematician. We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years. He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each stock market’s history. From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.
Red Lining Your Investments
According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of good value markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. His mathematical predictions have been eerily accurate as the red line below shows.
Each quarter Michael shares with me (and other professional investors) his “Total Return Predictions”.
Click on chart to enlarge.
This chart shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, he started in 1993. Keppler continually shows what his mathematical formulas predict for markets four years ahead. These numbers are based on mathematical relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years moving forward in monthly increments. In this way Keppler uses numbers to continually adjust to the ever-changing market norm.
Keppler’s chart includes two remarkable episodes. The first in the period when global equity markets peaked and crashed over a five-year period from 1997 to 2001. Keppler’s Equally-Weighted World Index predictions stayed above the upper forecast band and accurately predicted the recovery and how much global markets would rise.
The second remarkable period started in October 2008, when again Keppler’s forecasts accurately showed where markets would reach as they fell below the lower forecast band.
Imagine the extra profit professional investors have today when they invested in these depressed good value markets before they again rose.
Keppler’s projections now indicate that global markets are expected to rise from between 2.1% and 13.0 % in the next three to five years.
Learn about Keppler’s projections and about Asset Allocation from Michael Keppler in person at our Value Investing Seminar October 17 & 18 in Jefferson, North Carolina.
Our October seminar will be at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.
Enjoy the autumn leaf change and learn how to survive and prosper with value investments.
Jefferson leaf change view.
Learn amazing tax benefits as well. I have invited my tax preparer, Conrad Oertwig, to join us.
Seven of tax secrets that Conrad will share include:
* How Dutch-treat entertainment allows you to deduct your own meals.
* How to entertain for business and help the charity of your choice because a charity sporting event produces double the deduction of a business meal.
* How one magic word can allow you to deduct your daily transportation costs between your home and another work location.
* How to earn an extra $11,425 by using antiques as office equipment.
* How to gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business.
* How to reduce tax by having a second office in the home.
* How to travel by cruise ship and deduct up to $680 a day.
Plucking common sense from the tax law is time consuming and difficult work. For more than 25 years, Conrad has gained great satisfaction by helping his clients extract tax dollars from the tax law. He has over 400 tax savings tips and will share some of the most important lessons at the seminar.
To help you get an early start on tax savings, I will send you Conrad’s report “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business” when you enroll in the seminar. I’ll also send you “The Silver Dip 2015” as soon as it is released.
Join Michael Keppler, Conrad Oertwig, Merri, and me, plus video presentations by Leslie Share, Eric Roseman, Thomas Fischer and Richard Smith. The “Value Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with value investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create profits by spotting multi currency and global equity cycles through good value mathematics.
Hear from other speakers via video. The seminar will include online presentations including:
One way to protect our wealth and freedom is to have a good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning so you can also be protected rather than hurt by the tax laws.
Leslie Share: How to use and benefit from US tax law living overseas and for wealth preservation.
Leslie has been our friend and adviser of more than 30 years, and I have asked him to speak to the seminar online at the October Value Investing seminar. Leslie is an attorney in Coral Gables, Florida who specializes in general, corporate and international taxation, estate and gift tax planning, internal revenue service matters at the agent and appeals level plus most important, he specializes in wealth preservation.
He has the highest possible Peer Review Rating by Martindale-Hubbell, Florida Super Lawyers and The Best Lawyers in America.
Leslie is the type of attorney who can help gain asset and wealth protection if you live in the US or abroad.
The best way for boomers to protect their wealth is with good value income producing shares. Not everyone can wait for their assets to grow. Many need investments that create income now.
Eric Roseman: How to select good value income producing shares.
I have worked with Eric for decades and use his ability to select good value income producing shares. Understanding the intrinsic value of any equity is an elusive concept, but one of the best ways to assess value is by looking at the income it generates. Eric is a master at sniffing out the shares that provide a good income now as well as potential appreciation later. Learn from his strategic ideas for current market conditions.
Thomas Fischer: The impact of multi currency leverage leverage on portfolios.
Thomas Fischer has been a friend and investment adviser for nearly two decades. As a former currency trader in Germany and London, he has a keen sense of currency fundamentals and how and when to use leverage.
Richard Smith: How to overcome the behavior gap with Trailing Stops.
Dr. Richard Smith, founder and CEO of TradeStops. Richard earned a PhD in Math and Systems Science, and even he had to learn the hard way that it takes more than intelligence to win in the game of investing. He has spent the last 10 years researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone, and to succeed! With his background in mathematical theories of uncertainty combined with his own investing and trading experience, Dr. Smith understands risk management and how to use it as a self-directed investor to master the market.
Finally at the seminar I’ll review the 50 Golden Rules of Investing. Learn how to protect against shady investment advice, unreasonable and hidden fees. Learn how to protect yourself from your own emotions. Learn when it is best to buy shares and determine which type of share is best for you. Find out how to avoid the loss fear syndrome and stop getting caught by great sounding stories that can rob your wealth.
In 1986 I wrote a report called the Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.
Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce. As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986. Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986. Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.
Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The 12,000 pound loan purchased silver that rose to be worth $42,185.
The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound. So the 12,000 pound loan had purchased $18,600 of silver. The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver. The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating a $5,314 profit. So the profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.
This is why the “Silver Dip 2015” will be one of the seven portfolios, the most speculative, we will study at our October 17-18 Investment Seminar in Jefferson, North Carolina..
This is also why I am releasing a new “Silver Dip 2015” report. The same conditions are in place for gold and the Silver Dip looks at both speculations in silver and gold.
There is also another, much safer, once every 30 year opportunity that I have described in a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small good value investments. The mathematics behind the idea of this investment strategy are currently extraordinary. Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi- currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential than we have seen in over three decades.
Our Investing Seminars started 32 years ago when one of the best set of three currency and equity conditions ever existed. Over these decades, our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do. Yet in all those years, few times have conditions offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982. The Dow alone rose from 1,000 to 14,000 in that period.
Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!
Now three of the great economic conditions have returned.
Conditions have come together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s. The US dollar, the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s. Knowing these conditions and why they have merged and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.
Learn how to gain this potential (we’ll review three ways to accomplish this at the seminar) in the Keppler Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds). For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom. You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.
We review Country Index ETFs at the seminar and look at specific portfolios you can create to tap into these three economic conditions.
Share my 50 years of experience. Gain advice that is sterling as we head towards my golden anniversary of writing about saving, finance and investing. Our value investing seminars are filled with valuable information but we have fun and take time to relax and socialize as well.
We look forward to joining us this October.
Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina.