See how this wise old owl can help us be better at focus in global investing and business.
Last week’s article Micro Business & Global Investing Success looked at the importance of concentration… of concentration in business…. investing and life.
The article argued that focused experience and information… focused beliefs, focused values and focused determination are threads that weave happiness and success.
Then this article shared how modern media…. especially the internet… might be detracting from concentration and even retraining our thought process to a shallower level.
It asked, “What will be the global consequences be if today’s children globally are being trained to have shallower thought?”
A reader replied to this message and said:
“Wow, Gary, your latest posting about concentration really caught my attention and made me slow down long enough to read (not scan) your entire article. As a teacher, I often plan lessons on my computer. I use the Internet to research information in order to supplement my lessons. My problem has been that I often spend so much time scanning websites and jumping from link to link that I lose my focus and it can take hours to write a simple 30-minute lesson.
“I, too, have worried about becoming addicted to the Internet. I was bragging to my friends that I don’t watch television, when I realized that my addiction to the world wide web could be just as brain numbing, or cause even more withdrawal symptoms than watching television.
“One way I have helped myself is by taking my laptop to a place where I don’t have Internet access. First, I make a mind map of my ideas on paper, and then I start putting my ideas on MS Word, inserting bolded notes in areas that I want to research or confirm later.
“I have had the same intuitive feeling that something was changing in our brains from the effects of reading online ‘where portals lead us on from one text, image, or video to another while we’re being bombarded by messages, alerts, and feeds’. As a reading teacher who works with children struggling to read, I have noticed a profound difference in those students who spend a lot of time surfing the Internet from those who don’t spend much time on the computer. The students who are addicted to surfing the Internet, text messaging, and video gaming, cannot seem to slow down enough to focus and read words on a printed page. It is almost as if it is painful for them to read this way. I have suggested to the school administration that these students seem to have a different way of reading that makes concentration difficult for them. Now a book delves into this theory.
“I will read the book, and I continue to look forward to your intuitive and timely postings.”
Yet concentration needs to be woven with diversification because in this material world, there is always something we do not know… no matter how much we concentrate. The quantum aspects of our existence are so complex that our logic can only see them as chaotic.
This is because of “sensitive dependence on initial conditions.” Take the weather as an example. The outcome of the weather… despite all our advances in understanding is unpredictable because it is so susceptible to the initial circumstances. Investing and business… our lives are the same…. unpredictable.
Who knows exactly where an individual cloud will be in the sky ten years from now? Or where we will be or any particular economy or investment?
We had an example at our farm of the importance of matching concentration with diversification. We always have a lot of excitement at the farm when we are preparing for our courses on international business and investing as many of our speakers come and stay in our cabins. We often have a lot of rushing to get everything in order.
Our helpers were rushing around when they a screech owl in the barn and wanted us to come down and see it.
I took my camera along and these shots perfectly depict in pictures what this message is trying to explain in words.
This is a bird’s eye view. Can you see the owl?
Perhaps and you see the whole picture, the rafters the steps, the walls.
But a bird’s eye view requires a complete picture, many dots we can connect.
See the owl better now?
Our fine feathered friend is easier to see. We know him better now.
Can we creep closer?
Yes. This was one brave owl and now we feel like we really know him.
However I decided to take my chances and walk up the steps. This and a zoom lens let us really see “Mr. Wise One”.
We see the color of his eyes and can literally count his feathers. This is what we try to do with our international investing and our micro business… get into all the details.
This often causes the downfall of a business… having too much concentration on the small stuff.
When we get too close… can we see the walls? Remember those rafters and the steps? Where are they now?
Global investing requires a complete view seeing both the broad horizons as well as the narrow perspective.
If we are too caught up seeing the trees, we miss the forest and having taken a glopbal view, we have expanded our forest… a lot!
So this week we will review several global investment and business thoughts blended with the idea of attaining the correct blend of concentration and diversification.
Today’s review is on Jyske Global Asset management’s Medium Risk Portfolio.
JGAM’s management team use a lot of concentrated research. They collect data from Jyske Bank, Morgan Stanley, Bank Credit Analysts and many other sources. The members of their portfolio management then filter this concentrated data through their knowledge and experience. Then they meet regularly to further concentrate all this data into a group consensus.
Hundreds of years of investing experience concentrated into a decision making process.
Yet that process creates a very diversified portfolio.
Here is JGAM’s current medium risk portfolio for investors with $200,000.
Currency Investment Percent of Portfolio
USD 5.800% E.ON 30.04.18 4.53%
USD 8.000% Mobile Tele 28.01.2012 5.06%
USD 6.000% EIB 14.08.13 5.31%
EUR 7.250% Bombardier 2016 2.20%
EUR 5.030% Gaz Capital 25.02.2014 3.25%
BRL 12.500% Brazil rep. of 05.01.16 4.99%
AUD 5,125% EIB 30.05.17 4.88%
CAD CAD – No.1 Interest Account 5.15%
Fixed income Subtotal 35.36%
CHF Kuehne & Nagel Intl AG 3.19%
CHF Nestle SA 2.99%
CHF Novartis 3.07%
DKK Carlsberg B 5.49%
DKK Neurosearch A/S 0.56%
DKK Novo Nordisk B 4.47%
EUR Adidas AG 1.83%
EUR Bayer AG 1.75%
EUR Siemens AG 1.95%
HKD China Mobile 5.49%
JPY Toshiba Corp 6502 3.14%
SEK ABB Ltd 3.10%
USD Apple Computer Inc. Com 4.07%
USD Cisco Systems Inc 1.97%
USD Gazprom-ADR (E/C) 3.02%
USD Teva Pharmaceutical ADR 3.92%
USD iShares Msci Ac Far East XJP 2.21%
Equities Subtotal 52.22%
USD ETFS Metal Secs Physical Gold 6.71%
Subtotal Alternatives: 6.71%
Cash: USD 5.71%
This is concentration and diversification in global investing action.
Join Merri and me in Copenhagen to learn better ways to concentrate and diversify your global investing.
See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.
We also really enjoy the restaurants and coffee shops along Nyhavn.
We need concentration and diversification for good global investing and business because we live in chaos.
When we combine our logic… intuition and experience we dramatically enhance the chances for success. One way to integrate these three assets of logic… intuition and experience is with music.
This quote is about Chaos Theory
“A Brief Introduction confirms a relation between music and the quantum aspects of our existence.
“Music can be created using fractals as well. Using the Lorenz attractor, Diana S. Dabby, a graduate student in electrical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has created variations of musical themes. (“Bach to Chaos: Chaotic Variations on a Classical Theme”, Science News, Dec. 24, 1994) By associating the musical notes of a piece of music like Bach’s Prelude in C with the x coordinates of the Lorenz attractor, and running a computer program, she has created variations of the theme of the song. Most musicians who hear the new sounds believe that the variations are very musical and creative.
See how music can help you learn to speak Spanish in just four days.
How We Can Serve You
2015 ScheduleSchedule 2015 Seminars and Courses
Delegates enjoy taking breaks at our winter courses in Mount Dora.
We conduct our summer camps at Jefferson Landing in West Jefferson North Carolina.
Join us in balmy Central Florida in the winter and the Cool Blue Ridge in summer.
Join Merri and me for all the courses and seminars that we’ll conduct to help you gain positive solutions to your economic, financial and lifestyle concerns.
Here are the courses we currently have scheduled in 2015. Course in bold conducted by Gary & Merri Scott
Oct. 10-11, 2015, West Jefferson, North Carolina. Multi Currency, Protect Against a Weak Dollar Investing Seminar. (Normally $799 or $999 for a couple)
Overcome Election DeceitTuesday, November 8, 2016, is the 58th US Presidential election. Plus elections for all of the seats in Congress and 34 in the Senate. How many deals will be made between now and then that could reduce our pocketbooks? What trade offs will be agreed that will weaken our personal freedom? Which agreements will fill our days with more red tape?
There is so much deceit in the political promises and so much deal making that has nothing to do with the country’s or you and my good. What can we do to retake control? How can we see behind the scenes and stop the erosion of our rights and reductions in our standards of living?
Politically there may be little we can do, but here are two tools for our individual investing survival: numbers and words.
Numbers relate to value. Our wealth can survive today’s political onslaught and grow by spotting investing value through mathematical precision. Good value strengthens wealth and beats back a deceitful world.
Words define the law. Words create laws that define our rights, ownership and freedom. These words are also used to take these benefits away. Those who write the laws always include sections that protect themselves and their common interests. A good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning can use the same words to protect our income savings and rights.
As a run up to my 50th year of speaking and writing about savings and investments around the world I decided to ask my friends who are mathematical and legal geniuses to share a weekend with us to cut through the fog of rapid change and learn how to beat the system that seems so integrity challenged.
The idea of using math to find good value equity investments led me to ask mathematical analyst, Michael Keppler, to join us in the Blue Ridge for a seminar.
Michael is a brilliant mathematician. We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years. He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each stock market’s history. From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short ups and downs.
Don’t Red Line Your Investments
According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of good value markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. His mathematical predictions have been eerily accurate as the red line below shows.
Each quarter Michael shares with me (and other professional investors) his “Total Return Predictions”.
Click on chart to enlarge.
This chart shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, he started in 1993. Keppler contnually shows what his mathematic formulas predict for markets four years ahead. These numbers are based on mathematical relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years moving forward in monthly increments. In this way Keppler uses numbers to continually adjust to the ever-changing market norm.
Keppler’s chart includes two remarkable episodes. The first in the period when global equity markets peaked and crashed over a five-year period from 1997 to 2001. Keppler’s Equally-Weighted World Index predictions stayed above the upper forecast band and accurately predicted the recovery and how much global markets would rise.
The second remarkable period started in October 2008, when again Keppler’s forecasts again accurately showed where markets would reach as they fell below the lower forecast band.
Imagine the extra profit professional investors have today when they invested in these depressed good value markets before they again rose.
Keppler’s projections now indicate that global markets are expected to rise from between 2.1% and 13.0 % in the next three to five years.
Learn about Keppler’s projections and about Asset Allocation from Michael Keppler in person at our Value Investing Seminar October 17 & 18 in Jefferson, North Carolina.
Learn how to also let the law work for you.
One way to protect our wealth and freedom is to have a good attorney who understands how to use appropriate planning so you can also be protected rather than hurt by the law.
I have also asked our friend of more than 30 years, Leslie Share, to speak at the October Value Investing seminar. Leslie is an attorney in Coral Gables, Florida who specializes in general, corporate and international taxation, estate and gift tax planning, internal revenue service matters at the agent and appeals level plus most important, he specializes in wealth preservation.
He has the highest possible Peer Review Rating by Martindale-Hubbell, Florida Super Lawyers and The Best Lawyers in America.
Leslie is the type of attorney who can help gain asset and wealth protection if you live in the US or abroad.
Cash in on the best opportunity in 32 years. Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential then we have seen in over three decades.
Our “Investing Seminars” started 32 years ago when one of the best set of three currency and equity conditions ever existed. Over these decades our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do. In all those years, few times have conditions offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982.
Now three the great economic conditions have returned.
Our October seminar will be at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.
Conditions have come together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s. The US dollar, the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s. Knowing these conditions and why they have merged and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.
One way to tap this potential (we’ll review this at the seminar) is to invest in Keppler’s Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds). For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom. You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.
We review Country Index ETFs at the seminar.
Join Merri, me, Michael Keppler and Leslie Share. The “Value Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with value investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create profits by spotting multi currency and global equity cycles through good value mathematics.
Value Investing Outside the Box. Here is a partial syllabus of the seminar:
* See new breakout possibilities… in global investing.
* Benefits of early investments in an oil that’s up 22.8 times in the past ten years.
* Beyond Gold. Three hard assets that protect against all currency erosion.
* The Small Country Effect. Why small markets rise more than large ones.
* Top Value small markets and how to easily invest small or large amounts.
* The best four currencies for the year ahead.
Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in. This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s. Learn how to use ETFs to gain multi currency diversification.
Details in this session also include:
* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.
* The benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA. We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.
* What’s up with gold and silver. One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection. We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars – how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.
* New tax strategies. How to create businesses that earn income and reduce tax.
Gary Scott at a multi currency session.
The seminar begins with a 1000 Year Economic Review that leads us up to where markets are now and head for the next 474 days and beyond.
Learn how to:
* Find good investing value.
* Use multi currency portfolios.
* To use multi currency for diversification-speculation & hedge.
* Earn in water and agricultural investing.
* Gain with special situations now for aggressive growth
Saturday, Sunday, October 17-18, 2015, Jefferson, North Carolina.