International Financial Market Thinking


Here is some international financial thinking that shows strength in the idea of emerging market investing from the Chief Economist and Chief Editor at Bank Credit Analyst, Mr. Martin Barnes.

Join Merri and me in Copenhagen. We’ll learn more about emerging markets but also love strolling along Copenhagen’s famous pedestrian shopping street called Stroget. Stroget is not a name of a specific street, but a connection between the west and east part of Copenhagen. The shops are amazing… but the street entertainment even better!  Every summer that we are there we search through the fruit and flower markets on the streets for THE perfect fig…buy one each, find a great seat, sit down and slowly eat it while watching the crowds walk by!

Jyske Global Asset Management sent me this international financial thought from Martin Barnes a well known and highly respected economist frequently quoted in international financial news medias. Many of the JGAM investing managers have been reading Mr. Barnes’ writings for many years.

Bank Credit Analyst Research (BCA) was founded in Montreal in 1949 by A. Hamilton Bolton, who pioneered the concept that national economies and their capital markets are led by shifts in financial liquidity, money supply and credit.

BCA though expensive (their annual fees can run $60,000) has a wide following among financial institutions, corporations, individual investors and academics.  BCA along with Morgan Stanley and Jyske Bank are important sources of data for JGAM.

BCA has dramatically expanded the firm’s research capabilities and global coverage by building a large team of experienced economists and researchers and its operations are worldwide with offices in many major cities around the globe.

Here is an excerpt from JGAM’s summary of Mr. Barnes’ views on economics and financial markets: The economic recovery is developing slowly as normal after a recession caused by a financial crisis. Fiscal policy is being tightened but not to an extent that will endanger recovery. There is a strong case for investment spending as return on capital is high, whereas consumer spending will continue to be moderate because of high unemployment, squeezed house prices and a general need for saving (i.e. deleveraging).

The recent fall in equity prices is a correction and not a new bear market, provided that a new (and unlikely) recession is not underway.

Bond yields are historically low and could stay low for a long period as there is no private credit demand, no inflation, short rates are close to zero and not rising and risk aversion keep investors away from risky assets (e.g. stocks).

Emerging markets are in a better structural position compared to developed debt burdened and aging countries, therefore, expect the new economies to outperform the old world in the long run. Growth in emerging markets will cause a demand pull on commodity prices, especially the demand-supply balance on oil seems vulnerable. Commodities could become the next asset bubble but it will take time to evolve. At JGAM we agree to many of these findings.

During the week the leading world economies have been warming up and positioning themselves to the G20 meeting this weekend.

China is off the hook after it has abandoned the US dollar peg and instead re-introduced a crawling peg. This was foreseen and a clever move by the Chinese as the focus is now back on the US and Europe who disagree on how early and how much to tighten fiscal policy.

Because of the crisis in the eurozone caused by debt problems (not only in Greece), especially Germany has been keen on promoting and restoring fiscal discipline. This has caused concern, especially in the US, that economic recovery could be in danger.  A fall in US housing sales has only aggravated the concern. An inevitable consequence of the fiscal thrift is that central banks will be reluctant to raise interest rates for a foreseeable time.

This quote from the German minister of finance, Wolfgang Schäuble, illustrates the clash on fiscal policy across the Atlantic: “While US policymakers like to focus on short-term corrective measures, we take the longer view and are, therefore, more preoccupied with the implications of excessive deficits and the dangers of high inflation.” (Financial Times, 24 June 2010).

See an important point on emerging markets that I especially agree with Martin about below.

emerging-markets

Merri and I hike the harbor every day when we are in Copenhagen.  We love…

investment-course

the sights, the…

investment-course

cafes and…

investment-course

open air and…

investment-course

waterfront dining.  Summer is the best time to visit Copenhagen.

Peter Berezin, Managing Editor of Bank Credit Analyst Researech (BCA) will be one of the speakers at the August Jyske Bnak’s Global Wealth Management Seminar, August 25 to 29, 2010 in Copenhagen.

I love attending these Jyske seminars not just as a speaker but because I get to hear all the other speakers, whom I consider world class.

This year speakers include will be Bjorn Lomborg known as the “Skeptical Environmentalist.”  See more on Lomborg here.

Another speaker will be Jeff Rubin. Rubin was the Chief Economist for CIBC, a North American investment bank for 20 years. See more about Rubin here.

Kenneth Rogoff  the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former Chief Economist for the International Monetary Fund is also a speaker. See more at Rogoff.

Another speaker is Daniel Brehon, the foreign exchange strategist, for Deutsche Bank AG.  See more about Daniel Brehon and Deutche Bank here.

The strong US dollar makes this the year to enjoy Europe and Thomas Fischer at Jyske just sent me this note: Gary due to the increasing US dollar, the cost for our August seminar in Copenhagen for Americans has dropped from about $2,050 to $1,700, a 15% discount. (THE COST INCLUDES MOST OF THE FOOD, TRIPS, MAKING THE CONFERENCE A GREAT BARGAIN.)

Some great things about the Copenhagen conference are the seminar of course…then there’s the stunning food and the wonderful visits included…This package includes:  accommodation at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel for four nights, (25-28 August) including breakfast,  Reception and dinner at the bank’s Copenhagen offices, seminar fee and materials for the seminar sessions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. full lunches on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, canal & harbour tour on Friday in the late afternoon, four-course gala dinner with entertainment and dancing on Saturday evening, and a Sunday excursion including lunch.

Merri and I always go on the excursion also to Silkebord with a drive out into the country, lovely food, picnic cruise and a chance to see the main office and the trading center.  This is always our most interesting, favorite and delightful conference…and we hope you will join us there!  We love the stroll along the harbor, the fresh air, wonderful meals and interesting people from all over the world.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

emerging-markets

We also really enjoy the restaurants and coffee shops along Nyhavn.

Important point about emerging markets

One of Martin’s comments was: Emerging markets are in a better structural position compared to developed debt burdened and aging countries, therefore, expect the new economies to outperform the old world in the long run.

At our June Quantum Wealth course we looked at seven places to invest now.

#1: Multi Currency Spread Increase Cash
#2: Value Markets
#3: Emerging Markets
#4: Wellness
#5: Water Alternate Energy
#6: Truth & Cohesion
#7: Real Estate

A recent 10 year comparison of major versus emerging markets show some of the reasons that emerging markets are one of the seven places I like to invest in now.

A comparison of the Morgan Stanley Capital index Emerging Market versus Morgan Stanley Capital Index Emerging Market Index.

Annual Return   Emerging Markets 19.81%    Major Markets  10%

Emerging Markets Longest Down period 6 months – Major Markets Longest Down 6 mos.

Emerging markets biggest downward drop 55% – Major markets biggest downward drop  53%.

Emerging Markets PE ratio 12.9   Major Markets  PE Ratio 15.2.

Major markets yield    3.70%.
Emerging markets yield  3.22%.

In other words in a decade… emerging markets have appreciated nearly twice as much as major markets.  There has been little difference in the lengths or size of drops and emerging markets offer much better PE ratios.  The only area where major markets have excelled is yield.

The current best value emerging markets (according to Keppler Asset Mangement) are There are nine top value (“buy”) emerging markets: Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

See Keppler’s current emerging maret analysis here.

When you think globally… consider emerging markets. They have the image of being riskier… but when you look at the facts… they have outperformed major markets for years and are in a position to continue doing so for some time to come.

Gary

If you are a chocoholic as I am, don’t miss the really important reason to visit Copenhagen… the bakeries and cafes…. like Konditori La Glace!

Konditori La Glace is the oldest (and perhaps) the best confectionary in Denmark.  This cafe began 8 October 1870, and  has served sweet teeth like mine for six generations.  It is an experience just to visit the beautiful old rooms located in Skoubogade 3.   You can eat these confections on location take it back to your hotel or in a chocolate emergency they deliver.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

Regain Real Security

There is a path to true security.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.  Almost!

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings. Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.  Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?  Then something inside snapped. “There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.  This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop Merrily Farms into a sanctuary here on Little Horse Creek.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

I want to share this information with a special few in our summer course in the Blue Ridge Mountains where the air is dry, crisp, with a bright sparkling sun.  Our North Carolina woods is a place where we can once again walk down sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths beneath huge, fat, green fir and hemlock.

We start the course with this question that can help us get our lives back.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.  This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are likely to make good investment decisions.  If not, no matter how much money an investors has, changes are, they’ll lose.

Bring Value and Purposeful Investing Together

value

Join us to learn how to make safety and profit easier and less time consuming so we can focus on our individual purposes in life.

Become an International Club member and join like-minded souls, who take a positive view and think outside the box for better health, greater income and safer, more profitable investments. Share ideas on how to add value to everything and make 2016 -2017 your best years yet.

In 2016 Merri’s, David’s and my mission is to share our 50 years of experience in international business, investing and living to make ourselves happier, healthier and wealthier.

To reach a wider audience we have shifted our seminars online including the seminar “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.

Here is a partial syllabus of this seminar.

  • Three common sense ideas:   Avoid lines.  Go where you are a name not a number.  Decide who you are and what matters to you.
  • Why three economic trends that have make smart investors rich every 30 years are ready for cashing in now.
  • How to look for short term problems that create long term value.
  • Update on the best ten markets for safety and profit.
  • How to diversify in value with Country ETFs.
  • The value of time in investing and life.
  • The economics in cyber wars. How to look back at the economics of war to see ahead.
  • Great new innovations that will ignite a 16 year bull market from 2016 to 2032.
  • The next great fuel.
  • Timing long cycles, economic cycles and seasonality.
  • Investing in Demographics.
  • Trading Down, the biggest global trend ahead.
  • Hidden Inflation .
  • How to protect against pension loss.
  • The Silver Dip 2016. When and how to invest in gold and silver . How to double your position with loans.
  • How to spot currency distortions and borrow low to deposit high.
  • How, Why When & Where to bank abroad.

Club membership is for an entire year and the recorded seminar is just one high point.

In 2016 and 2017 we are conducting online seminars about value investing, natural health and how to write to sell.

International Club members receive all the online seminars free.

In addition club membership includes:

  • Personal investing Course (Pi), normally $297, FREE
  • Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher, normally $299, FREE
  • Eventful Business, normally $349, FREE
  • International Business Made EZ, normally $299, FREE
  • Report “Three Economic Conditions for 50% or More Profit,” normally $29.95, FREE
  • Report “Silver Dip 2015” normally $27, FREE
  • Three online Value Investing Seminars, normally $477, FREE
  • One online Natural Health Seminar, normally $119, FREE
  • One online Writers Camp, normally $299, FREE

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments

Merri and I have been organizing courses, seminars and newsletters about international and Super Thinking  lifestyles for over 30 years.  The importance of this sharing… by like minded souls… was reinforced when a delegate from a course sent an email that said:

My Dearest Merri and Gary, Thank you for your most gracious hospitality last weekend. I am just thrilled at being a part of your group.  You and Gary were exactly as I imagined you to be, warm friendly, kind, considerate, genuine, helpful, fun, sincere, what else can I say……I felt so comfortable in your presence and learned so much in your course. I was sad to leave the farm that Sunday afternoon.  You made us all feel so welcome and cared about.  You were so kind to make arrangements for a ride with the other delegates from the Charlotte Airport.  They were so nice to me and so helpful, by the time the weekend was over I felt like they were my long lost brothers. Monday morning we all had breakfast at the airport together and I was so sad to see them go, I was sad the weekend was over, perhaps sad is not the right word for how I was feeling perhaps Gratitude is a better way to describe it.  Grateful for having the opportunity to share the weekend with such wonderful, like minded Human Beings, in the beautiful mountains of North Carolina. Thank you Merri and Gary.  Thanks to you I now have new hope and a new direction to move forward in my life.   I know by attending your classes and conferences that through education and due diligence I will make the right choices.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club.

Let’s prosper in these times of change. Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year?  Join us online.

Club members receive everything we offer in 2016 and 2017.

Annual International Club (one year) Membership  $1,199

Annual International Club (one year) Membership four quarterly $375 payments

Gary


Related Artices

If you enjoyed this article "International Financial Market Thinking" you may find these related articles of interest too: