Smalltown USA – War on Four Fronts


Smalltown USA will benefit (relatively) from war on four fronts.

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Merri and I happily arrived back at Little Horse Creek  over the weekend!  This was the view yesterday as I wrote this note.

The cool mountain weather… lack of unnatural sounds… freshness of the air and water are as refreshing as the lightening bugs at night under a Milky Way and pitch black starry, starry skies.

Plus there is a certain comfort being secluded in deep woods with an abundant food supply and no crowds… noise or traffic around.

These qualities of comfort and isolation are growing in value because of this quote you”ll want to remember… “The Mexican cartels are not just about crossing the U.S. border — they’re about developing a multinational operation”.

This fact about the drug cartels could and probably will dramatically affect your life… and mine… and my family’s… and just about everyone in the Western world.

The conclusion of this  particular message is so disturbing to me that I feel compelled to first remind you (and reaffirm this fact to myself) that every generation has its cross to bear.   There are times when it is hard to remember that every problem creates opportunity. This is such a case.

Mark Twain wrote about this in 1899 when he penned a note that said:  “I have been reading the morning paper. I do it every morning–knowing well that I shall find in it the usual depravities and basenesses and hypocrisies and cruelties that make up civilization, and cause me to put in the rest of the day pleading for the damnation of the human race. I cannot seem to get my prayers answered, yet I do not despair.”

So let’s tie several facts… get some conclusions… and hope they ARE NOT correct.

Then let’s start figuring what to do personally for the betterment of ourselves… our family’s future and hopefully the rest of the world.  This is just in case our guesswork comes true.

We’ll enter the problem with a quote from Christian Science Monitor.  (There are links to the numerous articles we look at in this message at the end so you can delve more deeply into this scenario if you wish).

This February 2010 article by CSM staff writer Gordon Lubold entitled  “QDR: Pentagon revises its long-held two-war doctrine” says:

A key Pentagon strategic document released Monday, called the Quadrennial Defense Review, increases the emphasis on a new range of threats, including cybersecurity. It departs from the military’s traditional goal of being able to fight two conventional wars at once.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s efforts to focus the Defense Department on the wars at hand – not the ones being waged in the minds of futurists fixated on China or Russia – is the guiding principle behind a new strategic document that sets the Pentagon’s priorities for the next several years.

In the past, the QDR has demanded that the US be prepared to confront two major, conventional wars at one time. But noting that the US is already engaged in two wars, Gates said Monday that it’s time to rethink the “construct” of national security.

The new QDR outlines that the Pentagon must be prepared to fight a “much broader range of security challenges,” including high-tech ones in cyberspace, as well as the ones in which the US is currently engaged.

This does not sound good to me… but makes sense by the fact that the US is already fighting wars on three fronts and could soon see a fourth (in Korea).

Where’s the third front?

We can see the third front already building five years ago in an August 2005  USA Today article by Danna Harman of August entitled “Mexican drug cartels’ wars move closer to U.S. border”.

That article said:  CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico — The kingpins of this hemisphere’s illegal drug trade are no longer Colombians.

Mexican federal agents patrol the streets of Nuevo Laredo, a city of 350,000 on the Rio Grande. Nuevo Laredo been hit hardest by the drug wars’ violence this year.In the largest shake-up since the 1980s, Mexican cartels have leveraged the profits from their delivery routes to wrest control from Colombian producers, senior U.S. drug officials say. The shift also is the result of the success Colombian and U.S. authorities have had in cracking down on Colombia’s drug lords.

“Today, the Mexicans have taken over and are running the organized crime, and getting the bulk of the money,” says John Walters, the White House drug czar. “The Colombians have pulled back.”

Walters says Mexican drug lords are calling the shots in what the United Nations estimates is a $142 billion a year business in cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine and other illicit drugs on America’s streets. One consequence of the new dominance of the Mexican cartels is a spike in violence along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border, where rival cartels are battling law enforcement authorities and one another for control of transit corridors.

The problem started being acknowledged later.  An 2009 MSNBC article by Alex Johnson “In Mexico’s drug wars, fears of a U.S. front
Violence that has killed thousands is beginning to cross border, officials say” is an example.

The article said:  With U.S. forces fighting two wars abroad, the nation’s top military officer made an important visit last week to forestall a third.

He went to Mexico.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the trip to confer with Mexican leaders about the Merida Initiative, a three-year plan signed into law last June to flood the U.S.-Mexican border region with $1.4 billion in U.S. assistance for law-enforcement training and equipment, as well as technical advice and training to bolster Mexico’s judicial system.

For awhile we have tried fighting this third front war with Mexican military.

Now that facade has come tumbling down as evidenced by an article in the  Arizona Republic by by Erin Kelly and Ginger Rough “President Obama to send 1,200 troops to Mexican border”

Here is an excerpt:  President Barack Obama will deploy up to 1,200 National Guard troops to help secure the Southwest Border against Mexican drug cartels, White House officials said Tuesday.

Obama also is requesting that Congress approve $500 million for enhanced border protection and law enforcement activities as part of an emergency spending bill expected to come to the Senate floor this week.

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and a bipartisan group of border state lawmakers in Congress have been urging Obama to send in National Guard troops to respond to the high-profile violence along the U.S.-Mexico border. More than 20,000 Mexicans have died in drug-related violence, and Arizona law enforcement officials have complained of increased home-invasion robberies and other crime in the state’s border towns.

Giffords has been calling for the deployment since immediately after the March 27 murder of Cochise County rancher Robert Krentz.The White House has not said exactly where the troops will be stationed, but Giffords said no place is as desperate for help as Southern Arizona.

Will 1,200 soldiers be enough?

This is anyone’s guess… and I sure am not military strategist but the Arizona article article goes on to add:

While Giffords welcomed the announcement, the White House action is not expected to satisfy everyone. Arizona Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl, both Republicans, unveiled a border action plan last month calling for the immediate deployment of 3,000 National Guard troops – more than twice as many as Obama is sending.

Would 3,000 soldiers on the Mexican border be enough?

A  June 1, 2010 USA Today article by Chris Hawley, “Mexican cartels go beyond their borders” outlines one reason why small military presence on the US border may not be enough.

That article says:  ACAYUCAN, Mexico — On a balmy night, five sport-utility vehicles full of gunmen roared up to the gates of the immigration detention center in Acayucan. They were on a rescue mission.

The gunmen pointed assault rifles at the guardhouse. They entered without firing a shot and loaded up 13 Guatemalans who had been detained while traveling to a training camp run by the Zetas, a Mexican cartel. Then they sped off into the night, according to the Mexico Attorney General’s office.

The April raid is part of a disturbing new trend in the U.S.-backed war against Mexico’s drug cartels as Mexican traffickers turn to Central America for reinforcements, ammunition and protection by corrupt authorities, experts say.

“The Mexicans are gaining ground here, and the police can’t stop them,” said Helen Mack, president of Guatemala’s Myrna Mack Foundation, which studies crime trends.

Three days after the April 19 raid in Acayucan, six of the freed Guatemalans were recaptured in Tlaxcala state, hundreds of miles away. They told the attorney general’s office they were on their way to a Zetas training camp in the northern Mexican state of San Luis Potosí.

On May 19, at least three Guatemalans were among a group of eight gunmen who attacked Mexican marines patrolling near San Carlos, a town hundreds of miles north of Guatemala, according to the Mexico navy.

In Guatemala, police found a Zetas training camp complete with an arsenal of assault rifles and a stash of 500 grenades last year, according to the Guatemala Ministry of Defense.

Another Zetas weapons stash found near Guatemala City included 3,800 bullets and 560 grenades with markings indicating they had come from the Guatemalan military, the ministry said.

“There’s been so much focus on the U.S.-Mexico border that people forget about the back door,” said Fred Burton, vice president of Stratfor, an Austin-based global intelligence firm.

“Entire regions of Guatemala are now essentially under the control of (drug trafficking organizations), the most visible of which is the Mexican group known as the ‘Zetas,’ ” a U.S. State Department report said in March.

The Mexican traffickers are also strengthening their grip on Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, the U.S. State Department says.

Honduran drug czar Julian González issued a warning in December about the growing presence of the Zetas, the Sinaloa Cartel and La Familia Michoacana, another Mexican drug gang. He was gunned down soon afterward.

The Mexican presence reflects a major change in the way drugs are smuggled, said Mauricio Cárdenas, a Latin America expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

In Guatemala, street gangs that once used homemade weapons are now wielding assault rifles provided by the Mexican cartels, Mack said.

“The Mexican cartels are not just about crossing the U.S. border — they’re about developing a multinational operation,” Cárdenas said. (my bold).

Where is the battlefield?

CENTRAL-AMERICA-MAP

There are a number of concerns here.

Third Front Concern #1:  deterioration of US civil liberties. If US territory becomes a war zone… what law applies…civil or military?  We have already seen this conflict and confusion over… who has rights and what are they… growing via the war on terrorism.  The signing of Arizona bill, SB 1070 by Governor Jan Brewer is another sign of the struggle in human rights. This bill is the broadest and strictest immigration measure in generations and makes the failure to carry immigration documents a crime and gives police broad power to detain anyone suspected of being in the country illegally.  The brings on the age old question… which is worse… the crime or the law?

Do I have the right to walk around without a document saying who I am in my pocket?  Does someone have the right to detain me if I am doing no wrong except not having the document?

I have clients who live in border states complaining about this problem.  One delegate from South Texas told me that he was stopped three times just driving in the country, doing nothing wrong, except perhaps having a car with tinted windows.    The stops, he said, “were not pleasant”… the TSA agents were on the verge of being rude… hostile… for no reason. He made the mistake… just once of trying to make a joke and was severely reprimanded by the officer.

Yet the problem of reduced civil rights may get worse.

An excerpt from  February 23 New York Times article by Randal C. Archibold entitled, Wave of Drug Violence Is Creeping Into Arizona From Mexico, Officials Say says:

PHOENIX — The raging drug war among cartels in Mexico and their push to expand operations in the United States has led to a wave of kidnappings, shootings and home invasions in Arizona, state and federal officials said at a legislative hearing on Monday.

The drug trade has long brought violence to the state, which serves as a hub as illicit drugs and illegal immigrants are smuggled to the rest of the nation.

Over all, in this city and surrounding Maricopa County, homicides and violent crime decreased last year. But the authorities are sounding an alarm over what they consider changing tactics in border-related crime that bear the marks of the violence in Mexico.

A home invasion here last year was carried out by attackers wielding military-style rifles and dressed in uniforms similar to a Phoenix police tactical unit. The discovery of grenades and other military-style weaponry bound for Mexico is becoming more routine, as is hostage-taking and kidnapping for ransom, law enforcement officials said.

The Phoenix police regularly receive reports involving a border-related kidnapping or hostage-taking in a home.

The Maricopa County attorney’s office said such cases rose to 241 last year from 48 in 2004, though investigators are not sure of the true number because they believe many crimes go unreported.

The violence in Mexico — where more than 6,000 people were killed in the last year in drug-related violence, double the number of the previous year — is “reaching into Arizona, and that is what is really alarming local and state law enforcement,” said Cmdr. Dan Allen of the State Department of Public Safety.

“We are finding home invasion and attacks involving people impersonating law enforcement officers,” Commander Allen told the State Senate Judiciary Committee, whose chairman, Jonathan Paton of the Tucson area, called the hearing. “They are very forceful and aggressive. They are heavily armed, and they threaten, assail, bind and sometimes kill victims.”

Chief David Denlinger of the State Department of Public Safety said that while tactics like home invasions might not be new in the drug trade, “they are getting more prevalent.”

“Border crimes are not just on the border,” Chief Denlinger said, pointing to posters showing weapons, drugs and people who had been held hostage.

This type of problem in the US could increase the forcefulness of the US law enforcement and make contact with the police less pleasant.

Many of us have experienced the civil rights twilight zone at airports.  Some have found this very disturbing… so much so they no longer fly.   One reader wrote:  If I ever decide to travel by air again I’ll definitely make NC a destination.  We would love to come to one of your events at the farm. Last time I traveled was an unfortunate catastrophe — got some overzealous security guards who first forced my wife to start removing articles of clothing right in front of everyone.  And when I stepped forward to help her because she has a physical disability and could not pull her belt through the belt loops on her pants (which they had demanded she do), they decided I too was a potential threat to world peace.  Long story, but to cut to the chase it was a very unpleasant experience being treated like a criminal (never been arrested, hadn’t even had a parking violation in 20 years, no radical associations, etc.) for simply trying to help my wife get her belt off.  And so I swore I’d never set foot in another airport as long as I live.  Guess what?  That was three or four years ago and I haven’t missed flying for a single moment since.

When doesn’t a person have the right to help his or her spouse… or a handicapped person?

Such sad tales may grow.  In fact it was recently reported in a USA Today article “Pushy fliers may show up on TSA’s radar  by Thomas Frank. The article says:  WASHINGTON — Airline passengers who get frustrated and kick a wall, throw a suitcase or make a pithy comment to a screener could find themselves in a little-known Homeland Security database.  The Transportation Security Administration says it is keeping records of people who make its screeners feel threatened as part of an effort to prevent workplace violence.  Privacy advocates fear the database could feed government watch lists and subject innocent people to extra airport screening.

There is no simple answer either.  TSA employees also have rights. There are immigration problems in Arizona that threaten the safety of law abiding citizens.  Yet history suggests that the pendulum usually swings too far.  The loss of rights… originally aimed at protecting rights… could well be worse than the protection.

Third Front Concern #2:  More global entanglements and a war that cannot be won.

Remember the DMZ?

Since war and Korea are in the news, let’s look at the…

korea-dmz

DMZ in Korea from…

korea-dmz

Wikepedia.

Yet the Vietnam DMZ and Pakistan today may be better examples of other similar situations which stop winning forces from pursuing their enemy. Such DMZs create wars that cannot be won.  Will US and Mexican troops end up fighting terrorists who are trained in and retreat to Guatemala, and other Central American states?

This leads to the third concern… death by a thousand cuts.

Third Front Concern #3: More Deficits. More Debt… More Money spent that we do not have. More Money withdrawn from positive social needs such as education.

Already the Western world is deeply in debt.  The United States and the US dollar suffer from debt and overspending that really started to grow with Lyndon Johnson’s “Guns & Butter.”

A number of US administrations in a row have turned that concept into a fine art… yet law and order must prevail so more goes into military expenditures… less into education… infrastructure… and other investments that could bring positive social evolution.

This creates a harsher society… one that encourages drug use to finance our enemy.

These three concerns could make parts of the Western world far less comfortable as places to stay.  Smalltown USA could prosper (relatively) for numerous reasons from a war on four fronts.

We’ll see why and what we can do to create opportunity and help stop or slow the negative downwards spiral in the Western world in the next several articles. Stay tuned!

Gary

See why Ecuador can benefit in troubled times.

We’ll look at ways to live, invest, do business during a three or four front war at our June 24 to 27 Quantum Wealth course in West Jefferson… the epitome of Smalltown USA.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

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Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

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