Emerging Market Value Update


Here is an emerging market value update.

Yesterday’s message looked at the importance of value in major markets and reviewed the six best value markets now.

Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler’s latest analysis shows that in the first quarter of 2010 Emerging Markets recorded their fifth consecutive quarterly gain. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 2.4 % in US dollars and 8.6 % in euros. The last time the index traded at these levels was in mid 2008. Over the last  12 (15) months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 81.1 % (82.8 %) in US dollars and 77.7 % (87.8 %) in euros.

The euro, which stood at 1.3901 versus the U.S. dollar at year-end 2008, at 1.4348 at the end of 2009 and at
1.3531 at the end of March 2010, lost 2.7 % versus the dollar over the last 15 months and 5.7 % year-to-date.

Of the three regional indices, Asia gained 1.3 %, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 6.2 % and
Latin America returned 1.6 % during the first quarter. Over the last 15 months, the respective total returns were
75.9 % for Asia, 78.1 % for EMEA and 107.1 % for Latin America. Performance numbers are in US dollars unless
mentioned otherwise.

Eighteen markets advanced and four markets declined in the first quarter.

Thailand (+13.2 %), Hungary (+12.6 %) and Egypt (+11.9 %) performed best year-to-date.

Taiwan (-3.8 %), China (-1.6 %) and the Czech Republic (-0.2 %) came in last.

Over the last fifteen months, all twenty-two markets covered here had positive total returns, even though Morocco only managed to eke out a 1 % gain during that period; fourteen markets had double-digit returns and seven markets yielded more than 100 percent.

There are nine top value (“buy”) emerging markets: Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Neutral value emerging markets are: China, Colombia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, South Africa.

Poor value markets are:  Chile, India, Indonesia and Korea.

See more on value on Ecuador here.

Gary

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