Noise in Value Equity Markets


Value in equity markets cuts through the noise.

See below the current best value equity markets  and why the Dow’s recent drop below 10,000 was no surprise.

Merri and I do our best to avoid pollution… in our food… water and air.

Plus we try to stay away from noise and light pollution.

This is not easy in today’s crowded, artificial and noisy world.

Avoiding noise pollution is especially hard when we travel a lot.  For example at our main gateway airport Atlanta Hartsfield  we are often subjected to three or four TV stations and/or announcements all at the same time.  I do not know about you but this throws us into a state of utter confusion!  Some would call it becoming a stumbling fool.  I would have to agree but there is actually a scientific word for this noise agitation. The phenomenon is called “limited channel capacity.”  When the mind has to process more than six or seven things at once it loses its ability to discriminate at all.

So when flying… on the plane and in the airport we wear either ear plugs or Bose noise reducing headphones (though I wonder about the electro magnetic pollution from the headphones).

Our goal is to replace the noise with Baroque music… because the wrong kinds of noise anywhere can create stress.

Most of existence can be looked at in terms of frequency. Some frequencies are harmonious and balancing. Some clash and create imbalance.

A lot of music played today has the goal of imbalancing the listener.

The noise coming off stock markets can throw us off kilter as well.

We follow many types of frequencies and have been looking how frequencies affect US stock market shifts for years.

We report on these various market frequencies often so we were not surprised after our May 2010 stock market warnings to see the Dow quickly drop below 10,000… again.

This month, this site provided numerous warnings about various market frequencies that have all come together to put downwards pressure on US stock prices.  This five day chart of the Dow from www.finance.yahoo.com shows how accurate those warnings were.

may-2010-dow-chart

If these waves represented sound.  The result? Cacophony and confusion.

We are also not surprised at the short term good news like yesterday morning’s market opening report in the New York Times.

Breaking News Alert The New York Times Thu, May 27, 2010 — 9:50 AM ET – U.S. Stocks Open Higher After Gains in Europe; S.& P. 500 Jumps Nearly 2% in First Minutes Shares on Wall Street quickly jumped at the open on Thursday, mostly on assurances by Chinese authorities that Europe would remain an important market for investment, and despite new economic data that was somewhat disappointing.

Expect the market to bounce up and down. This volatility is part of an extremely rude noise.

Yet if you see the entire score… as evidenced in this one month chart of the Dow from www.finance.yahoo.com you can see… may-2010-dow-chart

the tone is… down.

Many factors have suggested that the Dow is headed and it has been…. headed down.

Ignore the noise!

Enjoy a more powerful and harmonious economic  symphony instead.  Tune up your financial instruments with value.

Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler points out that this spring global major equity markets continued their uptrend for a fourth consecutive quarter. In the first quarter 2010, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) gained 4.7 % in local currencies, 3.2 % in US dollars and 9.5 % in euros.

Over the last twelve (fifteen) months, the total returns of the MSCI World Index were 46.3 % (31.6 %) in local currencies, 52.4 % (34.2 %) in US dollars and 49.5 % (37.9 %) in euros.

The euro declined 5.7 % to 1.3531 (USD/EUR) in the first quarter. Over the last 15 months, the euro has lost 2.7 % versus the US dollar.

Fourteen markets advanced in the first quarter and four declined.

Denmark (+16.4 %), Japan (+8.6 %) and Sweden (+8.4 %) performed best.

This year’s worst performing markets were Spain (-10.2 %), Norway (-3.8 %), Italy and Singapore (both down 1.7 %).

Over the last fifteen months, all major markets covered by Keppler achieved double digit gains. Singapore (+66.7 %), Hong Kong (+64.4 %) and Sweden (+60.7 %) fared best.

Japan (+18.5 %), Italy (+20.6 %) and Spain (+24.9 %) came in last.

The Top Value Model Portfolio that follows Keppler’s analysis currently contains the following six “buy” rated countries at equal weights: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

Keppler’s current ratings suggest that a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Keppler added: What a difference a year makes! In last year’s Spring edition of the Major Markets Country Selection, I wrote:  “Never in the last 20 years have our implicit 3 to 5 year return projections been as high as they are now.” I finished with the sentence “Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety indicates that much better times may lie ahead for global equity investors”. Now, one year later, we have witnessed four successive positive quarters and one of the best 12-month performances of global equities ever.

As a consequence, our current 3 to 5 year total return projections for the equally-weighted World Index have dropped more than in half from 32.7 % p.a. last year to 14.7 % p.a. as of the end of March 2010.

major-equity-market-analysis

Keppler looks at Graham’s margin off safety analysis often. This is a frequency analysis that has great meaning because it is based on solid values that in the long run an investor should expect.  Whenever the red line is below the gray line, there is good global value.   There is less that have the value now  than a year ago.   The next three to five years offer a return… but we are closing in on the danger zone so speculators must beware.

Keppler’s neutral value markets are now: Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden.

The low value (sell) markets are:  Belgium,  Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong,  Switzerland and USA.

Since Keppler mentions “Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety let me add a note about Benjamin Graham’s book  The Intelligent Investor.

This is why most investors in equities should be investors not speculators. The hallmark of Graham’s philosophy is not profit maximization but loss minimization. In this respect, The Intelligent Investor is a book for true investors, not speculators or day traders. He provides, “in a form suitable for the laymen, guidance in adoption and execution of an investment policy”. This policy is inherently for the longer term and requires a commitment of effort. Where the speculator follows market trends, the investor uses discipline, research, and his analytical ability to make unpopular but sound investments in bargains relative to current asset value. Graham coaches the investor to develop a rational plan for buying stocks and bonds, and he argues that this plan must be a bulwark against emotional behavior that will always be tempting during abrupt bull and bear markets.

Market trends… bull and bear markets are noise.

During good times the noise leads to bad value. This is when most speculators incorrectly buy more.  Bad times… like now, create good value as they scare away speculators and leave the best opportunity for those who seek value and ignore the noise.

There is always value… in bad times and good and in all markets…. but look hardest for good value shares in Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom now.

Learn how to get good value Ecuador airfares here.

Join us in North Carolina and learn more about value markets.

Gary

How We Can Serve You


Related Artices

If you enjoyed this article "Noise in Value Equity Markets" you may find these related articles of interest too:

    None Found