International Investments Beyond our Control


There are many international investment fundamentals beyond our control.

This message contains three sections:

#1: International investment fundamentals.

#2: Thomas Fischer’s new report “Money & More” & JGAM international investment portfolios.

#3: An Ecuador ice cream business idea.


There are many international investment fundamentals beyond our control. Take for example, the full moon.

Full moon photo I took overlooking the Pacific.

Merri and I do not sleep well on a full moon. Ever since I worked in a restaurant as a teenager I have known what an effect the moon has on us. Full moons were dreaded in the restaurant as it seemed to bring in what we called the “crazies”. Perhaps I was prepared even then to believe that we could be impacted by the movements of the planets and stars.

international-investments

Full moon shot I took from Meson de las Flores in Cotacachi. See hotel savings at Meson here.

Yet few know that eclipses also have an impact.  I have read about this human impact for years and so I looked closer when our friend and Vedic astrologer, Blaine Watson, set this note:

Gary, I found this on Jeff Kern’s Board: (Conclusions below.)

“I recently re-read an article about Autumn Selling Panics in the stock market after a total solar eclipse followed by a lunar eclipse within 6 weeks in the same calendar year. So, I did some research using data provided by www.nasa.gov and discovered these recent occurrences within the past 10 years:

Jul 1, 2000 partial solar eclipse the NDX closed at 3763.79.
Jul 16, 2000 (Sun.) total lunar eclipse — the NDX closed at 4061.88 on Monday Jul 17th. The NDX hit an intra-day low of 3341.83 on Aug. 3rd for a 17.7% decline in 13 trading days. For the record, the NDX closed Nov 30th at 2506.54 for an overall decline of 38.3% from the lunar high on July 16th. (Autumn Selling Panic.)

Jun 21, 2001 total solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1751.22.
Jul 5, 2001 partial lunar eclipse — the NDX closed Friday Jun 29th at 1832.75 (3 trading days prior to the lunar eclipse). On July 24th, the NDX closed at 1604.86 for a 12.4% decline in 16 trading days. For the record the NDX closed Sep. 21st at 1126.95 for an overall decline of 38.5% from the Jun 29th high close. (Autumn Selling Panic.)

Dec.14, 2001 annular solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1605.67.
Dec.30, 2001 (Sun.) penumbral lunar eclipse — the NDX closed Friday Jan.4th, 2002 at 1675.03 (3 trading days after the lunar eclipse). On Thursday Feb. 21st, 2002 the NDX closed at 1348.25 for a 19.5% decline in 32 trading days from the market high 3 days after the lunar eclipse.

Jun 10, 2002 annular solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1135.62.
Jun 24, 2002 penumbral lunar eclipse — the NDX closed Monday June 17th at 1149.91 (5 trading days prior to the lunar eclipse). The NDX closed Aug. 5th at 857.08 for a 25.5% decline in 34 trading days from the market high prior to the lunar eclipse. The final Autumn Selling Panic resulted in a calendar year low of 807.42 on Oct.9th.

Apr. 19, 2004 partial solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1473.50.
May 4, 2004 total lunar eclipse — the NDX closed at 1497.00 on Friday April 23rd (7 trading days Prior to the lunar eclipse). The NDX closed at 1382.47 on
Monday May 17th for a 7.7% decline in 16 trading days.

Oct.14, 2004 partial solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1425.21.
Oct. 28, 2004 total lunar eclipse —the NDX closed at 1487.12 on Wed. Oct. 28th. The NDX Closed Tue. Dec. 14th at 1627.46 for a gain of 13.6% in 35 trading days following the low of 1432.57on Mon. Oct. 25th (3 trading days prior to the lunar eclipse).

Oct. 3, 2005 annular solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1605.59.
Oct.17, 2005 partial lunar eclipse — the NDX closed at 1521.19 on Wed. Oct. 12th (3 trading Days prior to the lunar eclipse). The NDX closed at 1709.10 on Fri. Dec. 2nd for a 12.4% gain in 36 trading days.

Feb. 7, 2008 (Thu.) annular solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1753.30.
Feb. 21, 2008 total lunar eclipse — the NDX closed Feb. 13, 2008 (5 trading days prior to the lunar eclipse) at 1823.00. On Mon. March 10, 2008, the NDX closed at 1673.03 for an 8.2% decline in 17 trading days.

Aug. 1, 2008 (Fri.) total solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1826.56.
Aug.16 (Sat.) partial lunar eclipse — the NDX closed Aug. 14, 2008 (2 trading days prior to the lunar eclipse at 1964.38). On Mon. Sep. 29, 2008, the NDX closed at 1496.15 for a 23.8% decline in 21 trading days. An Autumn Selling Panic saw the NDX decline to 1036.51 on Nov. 20th for an overall decline of 47.2% from the Aug. lunar eclipse high.

Jan. 26, 2009 (Sat.) annular solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1184.56.
Feb. 9, 2009 (Mon.) penumbral lunar eclipse — the NDX closed that day at an intermediate term High of 1281.65. On Mon. March 9, 2009 the NDX closed
At 1043.87 for an 18.5% decline in 19 trading days.

July 22, 2009 (Wed.) total solar eclipse the NDX closed at 1565.00. The NDX closed Tuesday August 4th at 1628.49 (2 days prior to the lunar eclipse).
Aug. 6, 2009 (Thu.) penumbral lunar eclipse — Odds favor an intermediate term market top some where between 7 trading days prior to, up to 3 days after the August 6th lunar eclipse.
There were no solar eclipses followed by lunar eclipses (within 6 weeks of the solar eclipse) during the calendar years 2003, 2006 or 2007.

Conclusions:

1.) In 10 out of 11 instances, the stock market as measured by the NDX rallied between the solar eclipse and the subsequent lunar eclipse that followed within six weeks during the past ten years. (It’s doing that now.)

2.) In 8 out of 10 occurrences, the NDX declined substantially after passage of the lunar eclipse. 4 of the declines (i.e., 50%) were full blown Autumn Selling Panics witness 2000 –38.3%, 2001 –38.5%, 2002 –25.5% and 2008 –23.8%.

3.) In the 2 situations where this solar/lunar combination produced double-digit market gains after the lunar market low, both occurred in October of the calendar year. Also, these abnormally large gains were produced in 36 trading days or less.

4.) The NDX declined 100% of the time when this planetary combination occurred in a calendar month other than October during the last 10 years. All of these abnormally large declines occurred within 34 trading days of the market high near the lunar eclipse.

5.) The evidence discovered suggests these events are not random.

6.) No one can know the future with absolute certainty, but this research suggests there should be a substantive market correction beginning in early August ‘09 with the NDX bottoming around late September to early October.

It appears the total solar eclipses caused the biggest declines among the solar ones.
It appears the penumbral lunar eclipses caused the biggest declines among the lunar ones.

This one now is the first one to combine a total solar eclipse followed by a penumbral lunar eclipse.

For the record, in 1929 a total solar eclipse occurred on May 9th followed by a penumbral lunar eclipse on May 23rd. Of course the market didn’t peak until September, and the bottom didn’t occur until 6 months after the lunar eclipse.

If the moon affects our moods, this could enhance the warnings we have already seen about current market risks.

Blaine has helped us numerous times over a dozen years to expand  our economic thought process.

For example in February 2007 he wrote:  “Since December 20, 2006 a Jupiter cycle has been running on the 3rd level. Jupiter is a planet that signifies banks. He is placed in a house of change and transformation and vulnerability. This cycle ends on February 7. This is interesting timing based on the fact you asked me to introduce this perspective at this time.

“This means there is very little time remaining for the Japanese government to bring about a reasonable and well thought out solution to the problem of a strengthening yen. On February 7 a Saturn cycle begins on the 3rd level. This cycle runs from February 7 and April 5, 2007. Saturn is fortunate for this chart and is extremely well placed in a house of gains. Saturn produces his results slowly and with great effort. This will be a fortunate cycle for the country although short being only 2 months long. A fortunate cycle for the country would logically mean a strengthening currency and a time of building and construction.

“In a word, this horoscope confirms what you and others are suggesting. Over the next 2 months there could very well be a strengthening of the yen, which as you has told me, is not good for anyone who has borrowed heavily on a weak yen.

The yen did rise after that… a lot.

It is important to note that the yen did not rise exactly as predicted but  predicting country economic momentum in this way is immensely complex.

This did not matter for me anyway, as I do not use astrology as a predictive system.  I find the data extremely useful gets me to think outside the box.

As international investors, we are forced to deal with international investment forces beyond our control. We must find simple ways to make decisions about complicated problems, knowing that many of the facts are unknown.   We have to deal with the future in terms of our past experience. Astrology presents a “what if” that pushes our thought process beyond past experience and encourages us to think in new ways to deal with future events.

For example, in the case of the yen… what that prediction did was stat me thinking about my yen loan position and its risk.   After reviewing the yen’s potential… my financial goals and all the other investment and economic fundamentals and alternatives,  I decided to pay off all of my yen loans.  And I wrote about this in my newsletters.

As you can see from the graph below from yahoo.finance this saved me a fortune as shortly after the yen skyrocketed and has remained strong.

A look at one’s horoscope might not predict anything but might suggest it is a good time to take risk or not. This suggestion might as it did for me start a path of thought about “What will happen to my investments if the yen becomes strong. What will the transaction do to the overall financial balance?”

This has nothing to do with the supernatural. This is just another simple way to add an extra dimension into your process of thought.

Blaine Watson teaching our Beyond Logic course… always one of our most popular each year.

Merri and I read Blaine’s ezine daily.  It is full of beautiful, lively, deeply interesting (and as you can see above), very valuable information for life, for investing, and for fun.  blainepw@gmail.com

In the case of the eclipse review above, other more traditional forms of economic observation back up the fact that we could see a market correction right now.

See a warning I recently issued about this potential correction here.


Money & More

To help readers understand international investments even more, Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM) sends out a periodical Money & More missive to our readers.  Here is money-and-more-august-2009

Here is Thomas Fischer teaching at one of our International Investing and Business Seminars  (IBEZ).

Also if you missed Sunday’s announcement about Jyske TV, see Jyske TV for North Americans here.

Currently JGAM does not see inflation in the foreseeable future.  They believe there are long term concerns of  future inflation created by present fiscal and monetary stimulus.  However, they state, “these concerns do not belong to the economic situation we are in today.”

JGAM portfolios are underweight in the US dollar as they expect the greenback to be in a long term downtrend against other major currencies.

The JGAM portfolios have neutral position on bonds and they favor high-quality corporate bonds because of attractive yield spreads against government bonds.

JGAM portfolios have an underweight position in equities, but they are ready to increase equity exposure,  maybe late summer or autumn.

Their portfolios are overweight in alternatives, including  gold to hedge against an increase in risk aversion and to take advantage of safe haven movements in the market.

JGAM is  ready to increase exposure in commodities when they think the present price correction is over with and they stay with a small overweight in cash.

The most profitable of the Jyske portfolios is their low risk portfolio with a one times leverage (100% loan) and they are keeping their loans in Swiss francs and US dollars at this time.   They are keeping their leverage below maximum levels as they maintain a cautious investment strategy.

The leveraged low risk portfolio rose 11.4% in the first six month of 2009 and JGAM  expects this bond dominated portfolio to continue to do well in the next six months. However JGAM emphasizes that
this leveraged portfolio is only suitable for investors with at least a medium risk profile.

For example the Low Risk portfolio currently has 80% in bonds denominated in US dollars, British pounds, euro, Danish kroner and Australian dollars.

9.32% is in equities denominated in Swiss francs and euro

Gold ETFs represents 4.48% of the portfolio.

6% of the portfolio is in cash.

Learn more from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

There are many international investment fundamentals beyond our control.  However if we use good economic research, balanced investment fundamentals and a sound, conservative investment manager, plus keep an open mind to outside the box thoughts, our savings and wealth should grow long term.

Learn more at our Multi Currency Portfolios course.

Combining good international investing with the greatest asset of all, the ability to earn wherever you live,  brings everlasting wealth.

international-business idea


Ecuador Ice Cream Business

Here is a great Ecuador business idea in ice cream.

This is why we offer our course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business.

A clear mind and healthy body are also a vital assets… plus a second language is a powerful diversification tool.

This is why I am willing to pay you $300 to attend either our Ecuador Super Thinking plus Spanish seminar in September or our North Carolina International Business & Investing seminar in October.  Sign up for either seminar and I will email you our Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course (offered at $299) free plus I’ll knock an extra dollar off your seminar fee…. to round up the $300 savings.

See details of the two seminar below.

international-investment-course

Thomas Fischer teaching at our IBEZ seminar.

Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of JGAM, our webmaster David Cross and me in North Carolina this October and enroll in our emailed course on how to have a web business free.  Save $300.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and diversification in Ecuador at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Here is an email for a recent seminar delegate: Hello Gary and Merri,  I have wanted to write to tell you how much we enjoyed your IBEZ seminar, and to thank you both for inviting us all into your lovely home for lunch last Sunday.  Merri, again, thank you for taking the time to prepare foods especially for me; they were delicious, and I appreciate your effort!  Thank you for a thoroughly enjoyable, very well done, stimulating seminar.  I came away not only with all the notes provided, but also with many ideas which I plan to begin working on now that we are back home.  Wishing you all the best,

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

international-investing

We take delegates on our Ecuador seminars to Otavalo markets.  Many buy enough goods to resell in North America to pay for their entire trip.  These woolen and mixed scarves are one of the most popular items.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.


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