Major Market Value Updates Dec. 2008


Here is the global major equity market value update for November to  December 2008.

Markets have collapsed globally creating some great values.  As this  opportunity ripens, be sure to invest in markets that represent good value.

This is why we continually watch global market values carefully.

Here is a summary of the November to December 2008 Major Market Value Review of Keppler Asset Management.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Equity markets continued to lose ground in November. After having given up 10.8 % in September and  16.4 % in October, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index declined an additional 6.1 % in November.

Year-to-date (through the end of November 2008), the MSCI World Index has lost 39.3 % in local currencies, 42.6 % in US dollars and 33.8 % in euros.

The euro finished last month almost unchanged versus the US dollar and now stands at 1.2689 (USD/EUR).

As in the previous two months, there was basically no place to hide in November, even though Sweden eked out a tiny gain in its local currency. All other seventeen markets covered here declined.

Hong Kong (-0.6 %) and Singapore (-1.1 %) came in second and third after Sweden (+0.1 %).

Austria (-14.5 %), Belgium (-10.4 %) and  Norway (-11.7 %) performed worst.

An ugly picture presents itself also year-to-date: all Major Markets declined
during the first 11 months. The best markets — again, those which lost least — were Canada (-29.5 %), the United Kingdom (-31 %) and Switzerland (-31.4 %).

Austria (-65.5 %), Belgium (-65.1 %) and Norway (-56 %) came in near or at the bottom year-to-date. All performance numbers are in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

There was no change in our performance ratings last month. The Top Value Model Portfolio  holds the nine  “Buy”-rated markets at equal weights. According to our analyses, these markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-
adjusted performance.

These  nine “Buy”- rated markets are Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

Keppler’s SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) are: Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland , U.S.A.

Keppler’s NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS are: Austria , Australia , Japan , Netherlands, Norway , Sweden .

Remember that the overall market value is just one of many filters we should use when we review value. The seven steps we use in our reviews include

1: Are the shares traded in a good value market?
#2: Does the share trade at fair Price to Earnings and Price to Cash Flow ratios?
#3: Does the share pay a good value dividend?
#4: Do the share have a good value relative to their previous price?
#5: Does the company have rising earnings?
#6: Has the share price been rising?
#7: Is the company’s management good and is their product or service line in a wave of the future

Michael Keppler also reminds investors not to misinterpret the investment analysis implicit in the Country Selection Strategy. A country is BUY-rated based on the valuation levels reflected in the MSCI benchmark index of country. A BUY rating therefore does NOT imply that any stock in that country would be considered an attractive investment.

To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy it is necessary to
construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in
every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the
overall portfolio. It is not appropriate to instruct a stockbroker to simply to select stocks in the BUY rated countries.

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com

Regards,

Gary

Join Merri, me and Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management at OUR INTERNATIONAL INVESTING & BUSINESS COURSE IN ECUADOR. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio plus investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

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Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

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bahia-Ecuador-hotel

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bahia-Ecuador-hoyel

Here are delegates working hard at viewing.

Bahia-Ecuador-Hotel

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Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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ecuador-coastal-hostal-lobby

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ecuador-real-estate-risk

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

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Ecuador-bed-&-breakfasts

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