Emerging Stock Market Value Analysis


Emerging Stock Market Value Analysis – March – April  2008.

We are coming up on May, a special month….for me over the past 40 years.

multi-currency-passport

Here is my first passport.  I arrived on my first business trip outside the US at age 21.

Here was the first sales force I hired in Hong Kong.

multi-currency-sales-team

The late 60s is when emerging markets  first began to emerge. Now Hong Kong is considered a major market.   In the past four decades I have seen plenty of opportunity as we have followed this emergence of stock markets around the world.

Yet how can one choose the right emerging stock markets?

Emerging stock market values are the best long term indicator of where to invest in the emerging stock markets.

One way we keep track of emerging stock market value is to follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael continually researches emerging stock market valuations and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s history.

From this he develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

He is, in my opinion, one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds.

Once a month we share Michael’s emerging stock market value analysis with you.  A summary of Keppler’s February, March 2008 current emerging stock market value comments are below.

First back to May!

Then in May 1971 I was in Singapore when the US dollar first devalued.  Here is my visa for that visit

multi-currency-visa

And the dollar has continued to drop since…a long 40 years.  Note in the review below how much more emerging markets have dropped in euros versus in dollars.  This is a sign of further greenback weakness. For example in the last fifteen months emerging markets overall gained 24.1% in US dollars but only 3.2 % in euros.  In other words emerging  markets grew little.  The dollar fell…a lot!

Recent developments & outlook in emerging stock markets.

After declining sharply in January and recovering in February, Emerging Markets equities continued their roller coaster pattern with another dive in March. The MSCI Emerging Markets World Total Return Index lost 5.3 % in US dollars and 9.3 % in euros.

During the first  quarter 2008, the emerging markets benchmark lost 11% in US dollars and 17.9 % in euros.

During the last fifteen months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 24.1 % in US dollars and 3.2 % in euros.

Of the three regional indices, Latin America fared best with a monthly decline of 3.4 % in March, followed by  Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), which declined 3.9 %. Asia lost 6.7 %.

During the first quarter, Latin America again suffered least with a 1.4 % drawdown, versus EMEA (-11.8 %) and Asia (-14.2 %).

Over the last 15  months Latin America (+48.3 %) is in the lead, followed by Asia (+21 %) and EMEA (+13.4 %).

In March, ten markets advanced and fifteen markets declined.

The best performing markets were Poland, Morocco (both up 7.9 %), Argentina and Mexico (both up 5.8 %).

Turkey (-20.2 %), India (-12.7 %) and China (-12.2 %)  performed worst.

Year-to-date, nine markets are higher and sixteen markets are lower.  Morocco (+33.8 %), Pakistan  (+11.2 %) and Chile (+9.7 %) performed best year-to-date.

Turkey (-38.4 %), India (-27 %) and China (-23.7 %) came in last.

There are no changes in Keppler’s performance ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains Hungary, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) China , Egypt , India , Indonesia , Morocco.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Jordan, , Mexico, Philippines, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Venezuela,

According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these emerging stock markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank at Fischer@jbpb.dk

Jyske Bank is the second largest Danish bank with 450,000 domestic clients, 35,000 international clients, USD 23 Billion in total assets, and a Moody’s rating of AA1. Jyske has over 35 years’ specialization in private banking and Denmark is ranked by Moody’s as one of the safest country in the world to have bank accounts.

Jyske Bank uses a good value system as well and their affiliated fund management company has been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to help us select shares for Multi-Currency Portfolio Educational

Tracking Service. This has worked pretty well. In 2006 the mainly equity portfolios we tracked rose 42.93% (Emerging Market) and 114.16% (Asia Emerging Market) in a year.

Here is the final 2007 one year performance of the portfolios we created and tracked with Jyske Bank and excerpts from the 2008 Portfolio Update #2 from our Multi Currency Educational Subscription.

“Portfolios 2007 Oct 31

Swiss Samba 53.32%
Emerging Market 122.62%
Dollar Short 48.19%
Dollar Neutral 38.67%
Green 266.30%

However the 2008 portfolios we are now tracking have not been immune from the 2008 turmoil and have dropped. Learn why and how much as a multi currency subscriber.

Until next message, may all your global investments be good.

Gary

To learn more about multi currency investing join Merri, me and Thomas Fischer from Jyske Bank at our May 23-25 International Investing & Business Made EZ in North Carolina.

We’ll have a special anniversary celebration…Quinoa cake at our seminar center at Merrily Farms .  Here are Merri and I headed that way.

multi-currency-course-center

We hope you’ll join us to learn and perhaps hike in the wonder of spring time in the Blue Ridge.

Gary

multi-currency-seminar

For details click here. May 23-25 International Investing & Business Made EZ in North Carolina.


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