American Shift Abroad


Four errors I made, obscured a special opportunity.

One of our messages last week looked at a survey by New Global Initiatives Inc. This company provides marketing services to clients concerned with effectively reaching the emerging global community. They focus on the tens of millions of people relocating from their home nations to other nations for extended periods.

Their survey suggests that 20% of Americans in one or another are relocating abroad either full or part time. This survey was written up in Barron’s and I have attached that article.

This is an overwhelming statistic and if the article anywhere near correct it will alter real estate and other values in ways people can hardly imagine.

The article says, “These would-be emigrant households plan to spend an average $260,000 on the construction of a house and spend an average $36,000 annually on living expenses abroad. In total they represent the emigration of hundreds of billions of dollars annually from the US economy.”

This creates almost unimaginable opportunity (which I might add Merri and I have been cashing in one for decades now).

A message at this site last January looked at this Emigration potential but I had it way wrong!

I wrote “60 million baby boomers will begin to retire in just a few years. Many of their pensions and social security will be severely squeezed by inflation, leaving these people with one of five options.

#1: Keep working

#2: Move to less expensive areas within the US

#3: Export their retirement

#4: Live in near poverty

#5: Die

“This is why I also believe in Ecuador . Imagine this. 60 million boomers will retire over the next 20 years. We boomers are the most spoiled group of consumers as a demographic class that has ever existed on earth. We were promised the world. We were given the world. Now the magic is about to disappear.

“Assume that 10% of these will decide to move to less expensive countries. That’s 6 million people. Where is the most likely place to go? Eastern Europe offers great potential but are long distances from the US .

” Canada is out…too expensive and too cold. Most people will head south.

” Mexico stands to be #1, but prices there are rising quickly and there is a lot of anti-gringo sentiment. After all there have been numerous Mexican-American wars. The building of a fence across the border will not help either. Yet it’s still probably the place that will benefit the most due to location.

” Cuba . By then will be ripe and good as well. A great place to buy when you can assuming no negative political circumstances. The low end Caribbean is also good except for those darn hurricanes that will put lots of people off…plus many water and transportation problems and the fact that few of the islands have a real infrastructure.

” Panama is good…lots of English spoken, many yanks already there, but weather is lousy if you want to be in town (hot and humid) and prices are no longer low. Ditto for Costa Rica . Central America lacks infrastructure though there are some nice gringo settlements though they are expensive. Colombia is the first nation with a progressive economy and full infrastructure after Panama and Mexico . This is a wonderful place but security will stop most from going there. If the security/drug/crime issues are resolved and image cleans up…go buy in Colombia . This will be a great opportunity.

“However for now Ecuador , 3 hours and 45 minutes from the US will benefit as the first nation with a full infrastructure and really low cost of living. Argentina , especially Buenos Aries should do well also. It’s further away but BA has a very European feel.

“If Ecuador gets just 10% of these 6 million Americans that leave the US , imagine what this means to this nation of 11 million. First this is more than a 5% increase in population. However look at what it means in dollars!

“According to the CIA World Fact Book, Ecuador has a Gross Domestic Income of $4,300 per annum per person. That makes a total GDP of $47,300,000,000.

“Imagine what happens if the 600,000 gringos have an average income of $18,000 a year per person. That adds $10,800,000,000. This is an annual income that almost equals 20% of the entire national GDP! This is one reason why Merri and I include Latin equities in our investment portfolio and are buying more and more real estate in Ecuador .”

According to this Barron’s article I was wrong on three counts.

First the number of people moving will be 20 million rather than six million.

Second the group moving will be much younger than I imagined.

Three, the emigrants plan to spend $36,000 instead of $18,000.

According to International Living Magazine I was wrong on a fourth count as well. IL has now ranked Ecuador as the second best country to retire!

This suggests a far higher performance in Ecuador than I imagined.

Huge profits may be made in places like Ecuador where Americans and Canadians decide to go when they leave home.

This is why we are buying more real estate in Ecuador .

Speaking of real estate for sale in Ecuador one brand new condo sitting next door to a house we had built in Cotacachi is for sale. The owners bought it, totally furnished it and then due to a job change cannot move down. They are asking $52,500 (a really good price) and $20,000 for the furniture.

You can see exterior shots of the condo for sale and detail of our Ecuador information service at http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-travel-and-living-service

You can see photos of the condo’s interior at http://www.garyascott.com/international_investments/316.html

You can reach the owner of this condo at fcgmaster@aol.com

Until next message good global investing.

Gary

The US dollar continues to fall and fundamentals suggest it will fall even more. Plus investing and business opportunity in other countries is great. We’ll look at how to cash in on both trends at our November 9-10 and 11, International Business & Investing course in Cotacachi.

http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-travel-and-living-service

Steve and Dr. Andres our attorney in Ecuador will speak on about Ecuador real estate along with Clayton Black and Kjetil Haugan as we look at porerty development potential in the mountains and on the coast.

Peter Conradsen and Henrik Villumsen from Jyske Bank will join me, to speak about multi currency investing. Jyske Bank is one of the leading international investing and currency managers in the world. Their trading room process $50 billion of business a day. So this next course makes a huge amount of global investing information available to you.

We hope to see you there.

Join us for the three day course and stay on for a two day real estate tour. Details of the course and real estate tour are at http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-investing-business-course-plus-extension

P.S. I write and speak mostly from experience… not theory. This means I have my own multi currency portfolio (and have for decades) and we will also introduce our six new portfolios for 2008 and why we are adding a sixth no leverage dollar portfolio for dollar based investors that we will track in 2008.

Join us at our Hotel Meson de las Flores for our next three courses or just the International Business & Investing Made EZ in Ecuador , November 9-10 and 11. http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/IBEZec/

We are investing more heavily in Ecuador real estate and one of our purchases is the hotel, El Meson de las Flores , where we conduct our courses.

Delegates love the warm, colonial atmosphere so conducive to learning, the friendly staff and really low room rates ($49 to $69 plus 22% service and tax). This includes a delightful and huge breakfast including fresh squeezed tropical juice, fresh fruit, granola or quinoa, eggs, ham or bacon, toast and coffee, tea or herbal tea served Al Fresco in the sunny courtyard. Ecuador ‘s weather in November is normally perfect, 50 degrees at night and mid 70s during the day with full sunshine…a nice break from northern autumn’s grey.

You can see more about El Meson, where you can stay (subject to availability) during the course at http://www.successguidelines.com/ecuador_real_estate/ecuador_real_estate_62.htm

Join us in Ecuador for all three of our November courses and save $398. See http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-tours-november-2007


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